Showing posts with label Shohei Ohtani. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Shohei Ohtani. Show all posts

Thursday, February 6, 2025

Time Was Always on the Mets Side



Well, it's finally done. The Polar Bear is coming back to Queens. After several months of intense negotiations, in which Steve Cohen verbally expressed his frustrations, Pete Alonso and his agent Scott Boras cried uncle.

To be clear, time was always on the Mets side. Boras thought he had a winning hand. He thought if he could just hold out a little longer, he would get Cohen to give in. As it turns out, though, Cohen and his GM David Stearns knew the market better than he did. So they gave Alonso two choices: a three-year deal for $71 million with no opt outs or a two-year deal for $54 million with an opt out after 2025. Alonso chose the latter. Which means we'll probably be back here again a year from now. But that's next year. 

Forget all that nonsense about those "offers" from the Los Angeles Angels and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Angels are where ball players go to die. Think about it: they had Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in 2023 and still managed to win only 73 games. Can you imagine Pete playing for them? Honestly, that was an easy bluff for Cohen to call. 

As for the Blue Jays, Toronto has been, and always will be, a hockey town. They live and die with their Maple Leafs. Seriously, Alonso could win the Triple Crown and all anyone would care about was whether Auston Matthews was going to lead the NHL in goals. Why do you think Vladimir Guerrero Jr gave the Jays a deadline of February 17 to present an acceptable long-term contract offer? He wants to be there as much as a nun wants to be at a frat party. 

Indeed, the silver lining in all this is that by giving Pete $30 million up front, it gives the Mets an excuse to pivot to Guerrero Jr should he decide to play hardball with them after the season. Ya gotta love the way Cohen operates.

So now that the Mets finally have their lineup in place for this coming season, the only question is who bats behind Francisco Lindor: Alonso or Juan Soto? Either way, this will be the most potent offense the Amazins have had since that 2006-08 team, which had Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and David Wright. To paraphrase Mr. T., "I pity the fool who has to pitch to that lineup."

After the Soto signing, I thought the Mets were good, but not quite good enough to beat out the Philadelphia Phillies or Atlanta Braves for the NL East. With Alonso back, and with the improvements Stearns has made to the bullpen, this might be the second best team in all of baseball.

The Flushing Faithful have waited a long time for this moment. It's finally here.


Friday, August 30, 2024

It's Time for Alonso to Put Up or Shut Up



After getting off to a 4-3 start on this road trip, that would've been 6-1 had the bullpen not blown two saves, the New York Mets find themselves three games behind the Atlanta Braves for the third and final wild card spot in the National League. They're in Chicago to play three games against the White Sox before returning home to CitiField to play three against the Boston Red Sox and three against the Cincinnati Reds. Having dropped two out of three to the Oakland A's in their last home stand, the Amazins cannot afford to take the Chi-Sox lightly. Anything other than a sweep would be unconscionable. Suffice to say, the season is hanging in the balance.

Also hanging in the balance is Pete Alonso's career with the Mets. The slugging first baseman is a free agent after the season and his agent, Scott Boras, is said to be looking to ink him to a multi-year contract in the neighborhood of $300 million. But whether Steve Cohen believes Alonso is worth that much, especially with Juan Soto expected to hit free agency, remains to be seen.

To be sure, Alonso is the best home run hitter the franchise has produced since David Wright - whose career was cut short by spinal stenosis. Letting him walk would be a tough decision. But overpaying him would be a mistake. The fact is that since his rookie season in 2019, in which he led the majors with 53 homers, he has failed to live up to his enormous potential. While he is still a potent home run threat every time he steps up to the plate, he is still vulnerable to the high fast ball and curve ball low and away. In 2023, he batted a career low .217. Yesterday, he hit just his 29th home run of the season, which would put him on pace for 35 for the year. For a man with that much power, that is a woefully low number. By comparison, Soto already has 37 and is hitting 40 points higher with a 1.012 OPS. Who would you rather have in your lineup, Alonso or Soto?

Granted, Soto will command considerably more money. But he's four years younger than Alonso and is a better all-around player. He's also represented by Boras, so figure the bidding will start at $500 million over 10 years and could go as high as $600 million over 10. Given that Cohen was all in on Shohei Ohtani before he signed with the LA Dodgers, I can't imagine he'd pass up a shot at landing arguably the second best outfielder in baseball. The first just happens to be Aaron Judge, who compared to what Soto will command this offseason, is the steal of the century at $360 million over 9 years.

But all that could change if Alonso were to have a great September. He is certainly capable of going on a hot streak. If he were to hit 11 more home runs, he'd finish with his third consecutive 40 plus HR season. That would increase his markability, but it would also give Cohen an excuse to pass on Soto and re-signing Alonso, especially if Boras overplays his hand, like he did with Jordan Montgomery.

It's all on Alonso. He is in control of his own destiny. I'm sure Cohen, if given a choice, would prefer to re-sign one of his own over a much more expensive import. And for his part, Alonso has expressed a desire to retire as a Met. But Cohen is, first and foremost, a businessman; a very successful businessman. If he feels the better investment over the long haul is Soto, Pete's days in Queens are numbered.

There are 28 games left in the regular season for the Mets. Time for the Polar Bear to put up or shut up.



Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Yamamota Goes with the Dodgers



I'll be honest. I was really looking forward to seeing Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a New York Mets uniform for the next ten years. Just based on the scouting reports, the 25 year old has a chance to become one of baseball's most dominant pitchers. And I'm pissed that Steve Cohen, with all his billions, couldn't close the deal. 

But the more we learn about what was going on behind the scenes, the more it becomes apparent that Yamamoto simply didn't want to play for an east-coast team. The Yankees offered him $300 million over ten years; Cohen went a step further and upped the anti to $325 million. That still wasn't enough.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who only a few days earlier had signed Shohei Ohtani to an unprecedented ten year $700 million contract, matched Cohen's offer and inked Yamamoto. Think about it: $1 billion tied up in just two contracts. Somewhere, Charlie Finley is having a stroke.

To those who think Cohen should've just shot the moon, as it were, and gone up to $400 million, there are two inherent problems with that: 1. Regardless of what Cohen offered, the Dodgers would've matched it; 2. Once Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, they pretty much had the inside track on Yamamoto. All Cohen would've succeeded in doing was driving up the asking price for a free agent he was never going to sign. If you think Cohen is despised by the owners now, that stunt would've been the icing on the cake. Take it from a former salesman, trying to out dick the other guy is never a successful strategy.

But let's play devil's advocate for a moment. Let's say Cohen inked him at $400 million. That would've been great, right? A starting rotation consisting of Yamamoto and Kodai Senga would be formidable. With the return of Edwin Diaz, and the addition of a couple middle relievers, the Mets would be a much better team going into 2024 than they were at the close of 2023.

But then there's the matter of what to do with Pete Alonso. The all-star first baseman is set to become a free agent after next year. The price tag for him will not be cheap. His agent is Scott Boras. If you think Boras is going to let one of the game's most prolific home run hitters sign for anything less than what he thinks he's entitled to, this must be your first day on the planet. Trust me, there will be no home-town discount for Cohen. If Yamamoto was worth (fill in the blank), then Pete will be worth at least that much.

You can bet the ranch that if Cohen had signed Yamamota, Boras would've started the bidding for Alonso at that precise number. In other words, by trying to screw the Dodgers, Cohen would've ostensibly screwed himself. I think Cohen realized this, which is why he didn't shoot the moon. And the money he saved by not landing Yamamoto he can now use to address other areas of this roster that need fortifying.

It's important to remember that even without Ohtani and Yamamoto, the Dodgers still had one of the highest payrolls in major league baseball the last two seasons. Yet despite impressive campaigns which saw them win 100 and 111 games respectively, they were upset in the first round by teams that finished considerably behind them in the standings.

The Arizona Diamondbacks, with a record of 84-78, won the National League pennant last season. If I'm Cohen, I'm probably thinking why should I spend all that money on just one player, when I can spend half that amount and get several players? Even in a sport that long ago forgot the meaning of the word frugal, two plus two still equals four. The fact is had Diaz not gotten injured last season, the Mets most assuredly would've finished better than 75-87.

Translation: they're not that far away from a possible wild card berth. Cohen and his new president David Stearns know this. That's why they didn't panic; and Mets fans shouldn't either. Let the Dodgers play the role of pariah. When they crash and burn again in October, something tells me a lot of people in Queens will be grinning from ear to ear.



Friday, August 11, 2023

Why Cohen Must Lock Up Alonso


Over their 62 year history, the New York Mets have had their fair share of home run hitters. Darryl Strawberry (252), David Wright (242) and Mike Piazza (220) lead the pack. Over a 16-year career that began with the L.A. Dodgers, Piazza had a grand total of 427 homers. Carlos Beltran, who's 7th on the team list with 149, smacked 435 in his career.

Pete Alonso has a chance to eclipse them all. In just five seasons as a Met - one of which was limited to 57 games due to Covid-19 - the Polar Bear, as he is affectionally referred to by the Flushing Faithful, has hit 181 dingers. According to Baseball Reference, in a pro-rated 162-game schedule, Alonso is averaging 46 HRs and 119 RBIs. To put that in perspective, Aaron Judge, who led the major leagues with 62 home runs last season, is averaging 49 HRs and 111 RBIs.

Now before everyone has a cow, I am not suggesting that Alonso is Judge. Judge is a lifetime .284 hitter, while Alonso is a lifetime .255 hitter. But based on what each brings to their respective teams, a case can be made that Alonso is just as valuable to the Mets as Judge is to the Yankees. When his career is over, Alonso could well wind up with 700 or more home runs. And that's Babe Ruth territory, folks, cow or no cow.

That is why it is imperative Steve Cohen lock up his slugging first baseman as soon as possible. Reports that the Mets were quietly taking feelers on Alonso prior to the trade deadline is an indication that they are skeptical they can re-sign him before he hits free agency after the 2024 season. If that is true then Mets fans have a right to be concerned. Because if Cohen was willing to fork over $315 million to Carlos Correa - who at present is hitting .227 with a paltry 14 home runs for the Minnesota Twins - then how in God's name has he not opened up his check book for a home-grown talent who over the last five years has hit more home runs than any other player in the majors, including Judge?

It is unfathomable that someone as wealthy and as savvy as Cohen could have allowed this matter to fester as long as it has, especially given some of the contracts he has dolled out. Whatever else you may think of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, neither were as valuable to this team as Alonso has been since his arrival in 2019. Letting him walk - or worse trading him - would be the dumbest thing this franchise has done, and that includes the infamous Seaver trade in 1977. By the time M. Donald Grant sent Tom Terrific packing to the Cincinnati Reds, the Mets were already a last-place team going nowhere. Cohen is on record as saying he wants to win not one, but multiple World Series. Having a player on the roster who averages 46 home runs a season would make that a whole lot easier. 

Maybe all this is just posturing on Cohen's part. Maybe the feelers he was getting for Alonso was his way of gauging how big a contract he would have to come to the table with. Or maybe he still has his sights set on landing Shohei Ohtani over the winter. Assuming he can convince the Angels phenom to move to the east coast, the asking price for his services will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $600 to $700 million over 10 years. In the unlikely event he becomes a Met in '24, Alonso's days in Flushing are numbered. Not even Cohen would pony up that much money on two players.

But let's just say for the sake of argument that Ohtani prefers to stay on the west coast. The Dodgers or the San Francisco Giants would be the logical destinations. How either of them make it work financially is their own concern. But more importantly, by freeing up the $60 to $70 million Ohtani would command annually, Cohen would have the resources necessary to not only re-sign Alonso, but rebuild the starting rotation and bullpen. As much as I'd like to see Ohtani in a Mets uniform, I'd much rather see another World Series in my lifetime.

If I were a betting man, I'd lay odds Cohen feels the same way. That's why in the end, I believe he and Alonso's agent will come to an agreement on a long-term deal that keeps the Polar Bear in Flushing for the duration of his career. Think $325 - $350 million over 9 years.

Yes, that's a ton of money. But it's worth it, given what Alonso brings to the table.



Wednesday, August 2, 2023

Reality Hits Home in Flushing


In February of 2018, then New York Rangers' GM Jeff Gorton sent out a letter to the fanbase informing them that the current core had gone as far as it could go and that the team was going to be sellers at the trade deadline. True to his word, the Blueshirts had a selloff that would make Charlie Finley proud.

But while Gorton may have turned over the roster, he didn't tear it down all the way to the wall studs and floor joist the way some GMs do. He kept some players around like Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Ryan Strome, Pavel Buchnevich, and Henrik Lundqvist. The following year he traded for Jacob Trouba and Adam Fox, and in the offseason he signed Artemi Planarian. In short, by opting to do a retool instead of a classic rebuild, Gorton shortened the period of time the Rangers missed the playoffs by as much as two years.

GM Billy Eppler did not send a letter to the fanbase indicating the Mets were going to be sellers at this year's trade deadline. He didn't need to. It was obvious to all but the most incurable optimists that the Amazins were not a playoff team, especially after a brutal 7-19 June. The only question was how big of a selloff were we going to see?

Like Gorton five years earlier, Eppler did not gut the team. Indeed, of the five players the Mets shipped out, three were free agents after this season, one was a free agent after '24 and another had an option for '25. If anything, the Mets are in better shape now than the Rangers were after their selloff in '18.

Not that you'd be able to convince the Flushing Faithful of that. To listen to some of them, you'd think Eppler broke up the 1927 Yankees. Whatever your feelings about Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Robertson, Mark Canha and Tommy Pham, they were not Waite Hoyt, Herb Pennock, Wilcy Moore, Tony Lazzeri and Bob Meusel. Anymore than Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. 

Far from being a contender, the Mets were a flawed team the moment they left Port St. Lucie in March. Their pitching was inconsistent, as was their hitting and defense. At no point during the season did they give any indication they were capable of going on a sustained run. Just the opposite, in fact. Games they found a way to win last year, they lost this year. The resiliency that defined them all throughout 2022, alluded them in '23.

Scherzer, in particular, was never the same pitcher after his oblique injury last year. He was hit hard down the stretch, including a late-season game against the Braves and a game one shellacking against the Padres in the postseason, where he gave up four homers and seven earned runs. This year in 100 innings pitched he's given up 23 home runs, tied for 7th most in the majors. And what does it say about this team when the most consistent hitter in the lineup -  Pham - was brought in to provide depth.

All Eppler did by acknowledging the painful truth was cut his losses. His deadline moves restocked a badly depleted pipeline with some top-level prospects, two of which could conceivably make the team as early as next season. In less than a week, he transformed one of the thinest farm systems in major league baseball into one of the deepest. I've been a critic of Eppler since his arrival from Anaheim two years ago. Suffice to say, he's converted me.

But while Eppler deserves a lot of credit, it was Steve Cohen's checkbook that made it possible for the Mets to wind up with the likes of Luisangel Acuña, Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford. All tolled, Cohen swallowed some $88 million in salary to facilitate the Scherzer and Verlander trades. To paraphrase a line out of the Mel Brooks movie History of the World, Part One, "It's good to be rich."

And it is that very checkbook that makes me think 2024 won't be a lost season for the Mets, regardless of what Eppler may or may not have said to Scherzer. Somehow I can't imagine someone as competitive as Cohen not being active in the free agent market. Yes, it's unlikely that Shohei Ohtani will want to move all the way to the east coast, but that doesn't mean that there won't be other pitchers and / or hitters out there that Cohen will be able to entice with his millions. The allure of playing in New York does have its appeal.

The fact is, pitching aside, the Mets still have a formidable lineup, capable of scoring runs. It is not inconceivable that Alonso, Lindor and Francisco Alvarez could all finish with 30 or more home runs this year. With the return of a healthy Edwin Diaz and a revamped starting rotation, this team could contend for a wild card in 2024. This isn't the NFL or NHL where rebuilds can take years. If Eppler and Cohen play their cards right, Mets fans might have something to cheer about by '25.

The bottom line is Eppler and Cohen did what they had to do. There was no other option. Sometimes, in order to take two steps forward, you have to take one step back. 




Monday, May 29, 2023

Memo To Steve Cohen: Houston We Have A Problem



With one third of the season already in the books, the New York Mets are 27-27, in third place in the National League East, five games behind the first place Atlanta Braves. After going 2-4 on the road against the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies - two teams nobody expected to be contenders  - the Amazins limp home to CitiField to begin a three-game series against another underperforming team, the Philadelphia Phillies, on Tuesday.

I know what you're thinking. $364 million oughta get you more than a .500 record after 54 games. Steve Cohen should get a refund. This was not how the script was written back in April, I can assure you. Yes, there were some concerns going into the season - like the back end of the bullpen - but surely not this many. Apart from Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso - who's on pace to hit 60 home runs this season - and Francisco Alvarez - who smacked his 8th home run of the season Sunday, and is making a case for rookie of the year, there isn't one player on this team that is pulling his weight.

Let's start with the top dogs in order of disappointment. 

Justin Verlander: The ex-Astro and three-time Cy Young award winner was supposed to be the ace of this staff. As of this writing, he is 2-2 with a 4.80 ERA. The only reason he didn't lose his last start was because the Mets bailed him out by scoring six runs. For the $43 million Cohen is paying him, this guy should be much better than he is.

Mark Canha / Tommy Pham: If you combined both these players' stats, you still wouldn't have an everyday left fielder, that's how bad they've been this season. Despite going 3-4 with 4 RBIs Sunday at Colorado, Pham has been, by far, the worst of this uninspiring duo. About the only redeeming quality he has going for him is that he's only costing Cohen $5 million this season, which for baseball players is practically minimum wage these days. It's unfathomable that Billy Eppler couldn't find a legitimate left fielder.

Daniel Vogelbach: Frankly, I'm at a loss to explain how a DH who's batting a paltry .223 with only 2 home runs and 13 RBIs is still in this lineup. The Mets would be better off letting their pitchers hit. Just Imagine what Shohei Ohtani would do in this lineup?

Buck Showalter: While Buck may have been dealt a bad hand courtesy of a putrid bullpen and a starting rotation that has struggled to get out of the 4th inning, he has made some bewildering moves this season. Two of them occurred Sunday. The first was when he elected to start Starling Marte in center field over Nimmo, despite Marte not playing there in two years. It backfired when Marte was unable to catch a line drive to deep left center that led to the Rockies scoring three runs in the bottom of the 4th. He then outdid himself by allowing Stephen Nogosek to get smacked around in the bottom of the 5th without anyone up in the bullpen. The Rockies scored five runs in the inning. That's eight runs in a game the Mets lost 11-10.

Francisco Lindor: Ironically, Lindor is on pace to finish the season with 27 home runs and 117 RBIs. Yet the all-star, gold glove shortstop has been very inconsistent at the plate, batting only .225 with an on-base-percentage of .295 and a team-leading 53 strikeouts. He needs to get back to what he was last season when he batted .270, with an OBP of .339, 26 homers with 107 RBIs. That's the player the Mets were expecting when they signed him to a 10 year $341 million contract.

The Bullpen: Going into the season, the main concern for the Mets was finding someone to replace Edwin Diaz as the closer. While David Robertson has filled in admirably, the rest of this group consists mainly of mop up guys and throwaways from other teams. Another Eppler epic fail.

Max Scherzer: The other $43 million man, Scherzer hasn't been nearly as bad as Verlander, but he's hardly been lights out. The Mets can ill afford to have either of these two starters be anything other than elite.

Tylor Megill: In six starts this season, Megill has gone more than five innings twice. In his last start, he was staked to a 6-2 lead but couldn't hold it. This is Megill's third season with the Mets and he has yet to establish himself as a reliable starter.

The good news is there are 108 games left in the season. No team wins the pennant in May. As bad as the Mets have played, they're only one game out of a wild card spot. The infusion of talent from Syracuse is already making a difference. Brett Baty has supplanted Eduardo Escobar at 3rd base, Alvarez is now the everyday catcher, and Mark Vientos is finally getting a shot at DH.

But it's going to take more than a just few kids to turn things around. The Mets need length out of their starters. They're 13-0 when they go at least six innings. 13 games out of 54 is not gonna cut it. No team can win putting that kind of strain on its bullpen, especially this team with this bullpen.

Both Eppler and Showalter need to step it up, as well. The former needs to fix this bullpen and the latter needs to stop being so stubborn with the lineup. If a player isn't performing up to expectations, he needs to be benched in favor of a player with the hot hand. The Rangers fired Gerard Gallant for basically doing the same thing Buck has been doing all season long. And while Cohen is a patient man, there's a limit to his patience, especially when he's dropping $364 million.

Bottom line: it's still early, but early has a nasty habit of getting late pretty quick.




Thursday, January 12, 2023

The Skinny on Carlos Correa



"We were unable to reach an agreement. We wish Carlos all the best."

Well, it was nice while it lasted. 

Just over two and a half weeks after the New York Mets announced they had signed Carlos Correa to a 12 year, $315 million deal, and roughly two weeks after it was learned they had issues with his medicals, the Minnesota Twins swooped in and signed him to a 6 year, $200 million deal.

The Mets are now the second team to express concerns over the long-term durability of Correa. Only days before the Mets announced their deal, the San Francisco Giants walked away from a 13 year, $350 million deal.

Let's get one thing straight. The idea that Steve Cohen got outbid by the Twins is absurd. If you look at the offer the Mets made, they were willing to guarantee the first six years, which comes to $157.5 million. Assuming Correa passed his yearly physicals, which would've commenced in year seven, they were willing to guarantee the remaining six years for another $157.5 million. The Twins offer was $200 million over six years, with another $70 million spread out over four years, again based on him passing yearly physicals.

The difference comes out to $45 million. So basically, Correa took less term and less overall money to get more upfront money, which tells you both he and his agent Scott Boras knew that his surgically repaired ankle might not hold up the entire 12 years. Why else would they leave that much money on the table?

So why wouldn't Cohen just swallow hard and match the Twins offer? Why should he? Think about it. His overall offer was higher. All Correa had to do was submit to yearly physicals in years seven thru twelve to get his money. The fact that he balked tells you everything you need to know. If there was no problem with the ankle, then there shouldn't have been any problem taking the Mets offer.

But let's for the moment give Correa the benefit of the doubt. Let's say that he felt indignant about having to subject himself to yearly physicals and decided to grab the more lucrative upfront offer. $42.5 million over six years is a shit load of money. Properly invested, it could set Correa up for life, even if he never plays another inning after the six years are up.

If that was Boras's thinking, however, it was pretty short sighted, in my opinion. The fact is even with Correa in their lineup, the Twins went 78-84. Without Correa in their lineup, the Mets went 101-61 and made the playoffs. With Cohen willing to spend whatever it takes to win, Correa would've been far better off playing in New York than in Minnesota. Not to mention Correa could have made up the difference in salary over the six years in endorsements alone.

This is the problem I have with agents. It's all about the almighty buck with them. They seldom consider a player's career when deciding which team to go with. Mike Trout is a case in point. In 2019, Trout's agent, Craig Landis, negotiated a ten year $426 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels. At the time, it was the largest contract awarded to a professional athlete. Here's the problem. The Angels are one of the worst teams in baseball. They have not had a winning season since 2015, and last year finished third in the A.L. West with a 73-89 record. Imagine what a player like Trout (.283, 40, 80) could do on a contender.

As for the Mets, they will now have to look elsewhere for that "one more hitter" to put them over the top. It won't be easy. Some names that have surfaced are Trey Mancini, Adam Duvall and Andrew McCutchen. While all three are free agents and could be signed for considerably less than Correa, none had the kind of year Correa did in 2022. Mancini, in particular, had a disappointing postseason for the Houston Astros.

Then there's Shohei Ohtani. The Angels DH / pitcher will be a free agent next season and Cohen is one of the few owners capable of signing him to a long-term contract. As I wrote last September, Ohtani would instantly become the Mets best player. Even if it meant gutting the farm system, Billy Eppler should do it. Players like him do not grow on trees.

But that's 2024. The Mets still need another bat for the 2023 season. Even with all the money Cohen has committed to this team, they still have basically the same lineup as last year. And that was good enough for second place in the N.L. East and a first round exit in the playoffs. The Phillies are a better team and the Braves are, well, the Braves. 

Translation: the postseason is not a given.


Friday, October 14, 2022

Mets Go Out with a Whimper


Some postmortems take longer than others to write. This one took five days. The New York Mets season came to a crashing end Sunday night at the hands of the San Diego Padres at CitiField. They didn't just lose the Wild Card round, they were humbled.

The team with the highest payroll in major league baseball was held to exactly one hit and one walk en route to a 6-0 game three drubbing. And while their bats were stymied, their supposed vaunted starting pitching was lit up like a pinball machine in two of the three games. Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt surrendered a combined 10 earned runs in 8 and 2/3 innings pitched. Scherzer's performance was particularly brutal, given the $43 million annual salary the Mets are paying him. All seven of the earned runs he allowed came via the long ball. He looked like he was throwing batting practice out there.

There's no way to sugar coat what happened. This was an epic fail, pure and simple. Yes, the Mets won 101 games, but their flaws were apparent pretty much all season long. You would've had to be blind not to see them. Inconsistent hitting and a bullpen that, sans Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino, was unreliable most nights. Why else do you suppose Buck Showalter brought in Diaz in the 7th inning of game two with a one-run lead? He literally had no one else he could count on.

As I wrote earlier, this is all on Billy Eppler. The GM knew there were holes in both the lineup and bullpen and yet, at the trade deadline, he acquired players who did little more than patch them up. Daniel Vogelbach was the cream of the crop, batting .255 with 6 home runs and 25 RBIs over 55 games, but was virtually useless against lefties. Tyler Naquin was supposed to provide Showlater with badly needed outfield depth, but batted .203 with 4 homers and 13 RBIs in 49 games. Not to be outdone, Darin Ruf literally brought up the rear, batting a putrid .152 with zero HRs and only 7 RBIs in 28 games. For the beleaguered bullpen, Eppler's sole acquisition, Mychal Givens, never got untracked. In 19 appearances, he gave up 24 hits, 6 walks and had an ERA of 4.79. 

So, where does Eppler go from here?

Well, for starters, he has some decisions to make about what to do with several of his own free agents. Even though the Mets had the highest payroll in baseball, it will undoubtedly need go up. How much will depend on who they keep and who they let walk. Let's take them in order.

Jacob deGrom: The two-time Cy-Young award winner missed the second half of last season and the first half of this one. He made $33.5 million in 2022 and was set to make $30.5 in 2023, but elected to opt out of his contract. How high Steve Cohen will go to retain the most popular pitcher the franchise has had since Tom Seaver remains to be seen.

Edwin Diaz: The best closer in baseball made $10.2 million this season and will command a very hefty pay raise over the winter. Cohen must not let him skip town, even if it means overpaying.

Brandon Nimmo: The center fielder was a reliable leadoff hitter this season and has outstanding range. He made only $7 million so Eppler should be able to re-sign him for a manageable number.

Then there are the players who are arbitration eligible.

Pete Alonso: The popular first baseman tied Aaron Judge for the most RBIs in the majors at 131 and made a paltry $7.4 million. Figure around $15 million for 2023 gets it done.

Jeff McNeil: The National League batting champ made only $3 million and, like Alonso, will see his salary double.

Now for the players under contract who are owed increases.

Chris Bassitt: Overall, Bassitt had a good year, but wilted in his last two starts against the Braves and Padres respectively. He made $8.65 million this season and is due to make $19 million in 2023. Eppler could include him in a package for Shohei Ohtani over the winter.

Starling Marte: At $14.5 million, Marte was one of the better signings the Mets have made in quite some time. Even at the $19.5 million he is due to make next season, he is still a good value. I doubt Eppler will move him.

Carlos Carrasco: At best, Carrasco is a fourth starter whose salary will increase from $12 million to $14 million. There are cheaper options out there that Eppler can and must explore over the offseason.

If the Mets can work out a deal for Ohtani, it would behoove them to do so. Ohtani kills two birds with one stone. He gives the Mets a solid power hitter who could smack 35 plus home runs per season and who makes the lineup deeper and less vulnerable to the types of ups and downs that plagued it throughout the season. As solid a season as Alonso had, there were too many times he struggled at the plate. Having Ohtani batting fifth behind him would force pitchers to throw him more strikes.

As a pitcher, Ohtani went 15-9 with 219 strikeouts in 166 innings pitched and a 2.33 ERA on a really bad Angels team. Imagine what he could do on a winning team. He just signed a $30 million contract extension for 2023, so if the Mets do acquire him, they would have to move out some contracts. That's why I think it's very possible that deGrom has pitched his last game as a Met. The money he would command could easily go to Ohtani.

But if there's one thing Eppler must do, it's fix the bullpen. A team with championship aspirations cannot let the likes of Tyler Megill (5.13), Trevor May (5.04) and Joley Rodriguez (4.47) take the mound next season. Showalter desperately needs relievers he can rely on. Just look at the job the Cleveland Guardians pen has done. In four postseason games, it hasn't allowed an earned run.

Bottom line, the way the Mets went out with a whimper will stick in the craw of the fans, as it should. If Cohen is serious about his commitment to make this team a legitimate contender, he needs to prove it. It is simply unacceptable for this franchise to have only two World Series championships in 60 years.


Friday, September 23, 2022

Why Aaron Judge Deserves the A.L. MVP



Just so we're clear, Shohei Ohtani is that most unique of baseball players; a gifted power hitter who is also an accomplished pitcher. He won last season's A.L. MVP award and is making a pretty strong case to at least be considered for it again this year. Players like this don't grow on trees. Check out the slash line below:

BA: .271, HRs: 34; RBIs: 89, OPS: .892
W-L: 13-8; ERA: 2.43; IP: 148; SO: 196

Those are pretty good numbers, if I do say so myself, and if Perry Minasian happens to call up Billy Eppler over the winter to inquire if the Mets would be interested in obtaining the 27 year old, anything other than an unqualified "who do I have to kill?" should get Eppler committed to Bellevue indefinitely.

On day one, Ohtani would instantly become the Mets best player. Just imagine a pitching rotation that includes Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Ohtani. Then imagine a lineup that consists of Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Ohtani. The Braves can kiss the N.L. East goodbye for the foreseeable future.

But here's the thing: as good a season as Ohtani is having for the Angels, it doesn't come remotely close to the season Aaron Judge is having for the Yankees. There's no other way around it: Judge is having the kind of season baseball players dream about. You want a slash line? Try this one on for size.

BA: .316 (1st), HRs: 60 (1st), RBIs: 128 (1st), OPS: 1.125 (1st)

The last player to win the triple crown in the American League was Miguel Cabrera for the Tigers in 2012. Before that, it was Carl Yastrzemski for the Red Sox in 1967. As you can see, it doesn't happen very often. Judge would be the first triple crown winner to smack 60 plus home runs. Not even Mickey Mantle and Lou Gehrig did that. He's just one home run away from tying Roger Maris's single season record and two away from breaking it. Thurman Munson, Reggie Jackson, Dave Winfield, Don Mattingly, Bernie Williams, Derek Jeter, none of them had the kind of year Judge is having. Even when Maris broke the Babe's record in 1961, he still only hit .269.

No, Judge doesn't wear multiple hats like Ohtani, but he personifies in every way imaginable what it means to be a most valuable player. Think about it. If the Angels didn't have Ohtani on their roster, they would still be a lousy ball club. But if the Yankees didn't have Judge on theirs, they wouldn't even be in playoff contention. Just look at the lineup. Yes, it's encouraging that Stanton is finally starting to hit, but throughout this entire season, when his team has needed him most, Judge has come through in the clutch. Last night, he threw out a runner trying to stretch a single into a double. The man does it all. He's the epitome of a five-tool player. I say this as a Mets fan, it has been a joy to watch the professionalism he brings to the game. If Steve Cohen could afford him, he'd be a fixture at CitiField for the next decade.

Look, in any other year, Shohei Ohtani might be a deserving candidate for MVP. Not this year; not with the kind of season Aaron Judge is having. If the term MVP means anything, then the decision should be a no-brainer.