Where Will John Harbaugh Wind Up?

No sooner had I written my piece on who the next Giants head coach would be, that we learned the Miami Dolphins had fired their head coach Mike McDaniel. Naturally every Dolphins fan from Key West to Port St. Lucie assumed Harbaugh was going to be the Dolphins next head coach. After all, the owner Stephen Ross has more money than God, and Harbaugh is in tight with Ross; ergo it's a done deal. 

Jesus, how many Margaritas can those people drink down there? Even Jimmy Buffet's going, "Dude, chill out, they haven't even met with him yet."

For the record, every owner in the NFL is rich, and by rich, I mean filthy rich. The Giants are owned by John Mara, Steve Tisch and Julia Koch; the latter has a 10 percent stake and just happens to be worth $81 billion. Trust me, the Giants would have no problem forking over a sizable chunk of dough to get Harbaugh's signature on a contract.

So now that we've dispensed with the "Who's dick is bigger" portion of the piece, let's get down to what really matters; what will likely be the things that determine where Harbaugh coaches next season. Things like do they have a quarterback? How many holes do they have on the roster? What division do they play in? And how much control will he have? 

While there's no indication that Harbaugh is looking for total control of football operations - i.e., bring in his own GM - it is reasonable to assume he's looking for a collaborative relationship with the front office; one that gives him input into player personnel and the ability to hire his own assistants. 

There's another misperception that needs to be cleared up, and that's this idea that Harbaugh is the second coming of Vince Lombardi. He's not, and even if he were, none of these teams are the '66 Green Bay Packers. All of them have flaws; flaws that will need to be addressed for them to become title contenders. Indeed, the best team currently looking for a new head coach just happens to be the one that fired him, and even they went 8-9. 

Since I have a horse in this race, I thought I'd start with them first. 

New York Giants: The last 15 years notwithstanding, this is still considered a marque franchise with a rich history and four Super Bowls to its credit. Sherman, Parcells, Fassel, Coughlin. And those are just the head coaches. Lombardi, Landry, Belichick, and Payton have all cut their teeth as assistants with this organization. Harbaugh would be in good company.

The Giants lost five games this season in which they held a double-digit lead, four of those losses came in the fourth quarter. They have a young, talented quarterback in Jaxson Dart, a vastly improved offensive line, and some weapons on both sides of the ball. They are not as bad as their record would suggest. With the right coach, this could be an 8 or 9 win team next season.

Miami Dolphins: The last franchise to have a perfect season, the Fish present a tantalizing choice. If ever there was a fanbase that was starving to win a championship, it's this one. They have not been to the Super Bowl since 1985, and haven't won a playoff game since 2000. Harbaugh could be the next Don Shula.

Could be. That's because there are a couple of problems. Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill are due to make $108 million next season. That's a lot of salary to tie up just for two players. New GM Jon-Eric Sullivan will have to decide whether to keep both or trade them to free up cap space.

The other problem is location. Over the last forty years, there have been four warm-weather teams that have won the Super Bowl: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (twice), the New Orleans Saints, and the Los Angeles Rams. Like it or not, warm-weather teams just don't do well in cold weather venues come January. Does Harbaugh really want to be the next Dave Wannstedt?

Atlanta Falcons: Frankly, I'm surprised more people aren't talking about them as a possibility. The Falcons play in arguably the worst division in the NFL. They had a strong finish to the season, winning their last four games to finish tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers for first place. The Panthers won the division by virtue of a tie breaker. 

With Harbaugh, Atlanta could easily win 10 games every season, which would be more than enough to earn a home game in the playoffs. For a city that loves its football, he could run for mayor.

Cleveland Browns: Not to be confused with the original Browns franchise that moved to Baltimore, this Browns franchise has had very few things to celebrate since its inception in 1999. Ironically, they fired the only coach to win 11 games and coach of the year (twice) in Kevin Stefanski. 

Harbaugh's family is from the area. Hiring him as coach would be like the prodigal son returning home. The issue here is the GM, and a quarterback room that is more crowded than the L.I.E. during rush-hour. Like the NFC South, the AFC North is not a particularly strong division. 9 wins could be enough to win it.

Tennessee Titans: They have their quarterback in Cam Ward, but precious little else. This would be the ultimate re-build. If Harbaugh manages to pull it off, he would go down in history. 

Arizona Cardinals: An intriguing choice. They have the quarterback but unfortunately play in the same division as the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks. Not sure Harbaugh wants any part of that.

Las Vegas Raiders: Word has it Tom Brady has his sights set on Curt Cignetti of Indiana University, who just happens to coach Heinemann trophy winner and first overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Guess who holds the number one pick?

My thoughts? I think it comes down to the Giants, Dolphins, Falcons and Browns. That coincides with what Jay Glazer has reported. He spoke with Harbaugh who told him that he has narrowed the list of teams he will interview with down to three or four. Harbaugh is also said to be reviewing film on various players. I assume one of them is Dart. 

Like I wrote in my last piece, the Giants cannot afford to make the same mistake they made six years ago. If they truly believe that Harbaugh is the best man to coach this team, they need to make him an offer he can't refuse. Don't let him leave the building without signing him. If Mara has to give up his first-born grandchild, so be it.

I was in sales for 25 years, and I know for a fact that when a customer walks out of your store without a receipt in his hands, he rarely if ever comes back.

As Tommy Lugauer of WFAN pointed out: John Harbaugh has his pick of the litter here. It is up to Mara to make sure that pick is the Giants.

 

Previewing the Top Candidates for Next Giants Head Coach

Six years ago, the Giants found themselves in the exact same position they are in now. They had just fired Pat Shurmur and were looking for his replacement. They interviewed several candidates, including Mike McCarthy and Matt Rhule, but elected to go with Joe Judge.

We all know what happened, so there's no need rehashing it. Suffice to say that this time around, the Giants are hoping, praying, that they get the right man. Thankfully, there are three eminently qualified candidates available, along with a few potential dark horses. 

Given the stakes, I doubt that Joe Schoen and John Mara will seriously consider any of the dark horses, but with this franchise, you never know. Remember, it was Mara who was absolutely smitten with Judge during his interview and couldn't wait to hire him. 

For our purposes, I'll concentrate on the front runners. To be clear, any of these three men would make an excellent choice and be considerably better than either Brian Daboll or Mike Kafka. Having said that, though, I do have a pecking order. So without further ado,

John Harbaugh: Without question, the best coaching free agent to hit the open market since Andy Reid was fired by the Eagles, Harbaugh checks all the boxes and would instantly become the best head coach the Jints have had since Tom Coughlin. In 18 seasons with the Ravens, he was 193-124, including the playoffs. He won a Super Bowl in 2012 with Joe Flacco as his quarterback, but with Lamar Jackson, his teams have underachieved in the postseason.

Kevin Stefanski: In six seasons with the Browns, he made the playoffs twice, winning eleven regular-season games and coach of the year both times. That's quite an accomplishment for a franchise that since 1999 has had four winning seasons. Stefanski's claim to fame is working with quarterbacks, which will be crucial for the development of Jaxson Dart.

Mike McCarthy: In hindsight, Mara should've hired him back in 2020 instead of Judge. But that's water under the bridge. McCarthy is one of six head coaches in the history of the NFL to win twelve or more games with multiple franchises. He won a Super Bowl in 2010 with the Packers and had three consecutive 12-5 seasons with the Cowboys. But his lack of playoff success in Dallas led to a falling out with Jerry Jones. 

Now for the sixty-four thousand dollar question. Who would I go with? Obviously, Harbaugh would be my first choice. But if it turns out that he wants too much control - i.e., Bill Belichick in New England - I could see the Giants pivoting to Stefanski. And to be honest, I wouldn't be disappointed, provided they hire the right assistants. Imagine a staff of Stefanski as head coach, Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator, and Antonio Pierce as defensive coordinator. That would arguably be the best coaching staff the Giants have had since their last Super Bowl team. As for McCarthy, he would be the safe pick. I don't love him, but I don't hate him either. Like I said, all three would be improvements over Daboll and Kafka.

One thing to keep in mind: the Giants aren't the only team looking to fill a coaching vacancy. Aside from Baltimore and Cleveland, the Atlanta Falcons, Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans also have their lines in the water. And the Falcons are especially intriguing because, unlike the other teams, they fired their coach and GM. That means they're in position to give whoever they hire total control over football operations. While's there's no indication that Harbaugh is looking for that much power, it's hard to imagine him turning down such an offer if it came his way.

We know that the Giants have already met with Stefanski and McCarthy; they've also met with Raheem Morris - the former Flacons head coach - and have a meeting scheduled with Pierce later this week, so they're in full compliance with the Rooney Rule. If Mara and Schoen like what they see when they sit down with Harbaugh next week, it would behoove them to make him an offer right there on the spot. Under no circumstances should they allow him to leave the building. On the other hand, if they're not enamored of Harbaugh, their very next call has to be to Stefanski. Get him in as soon as possible before another team snatches him up.

Six years ago, the Giants let two very qualified coaches slip through their fingers. They cannot afford to make that same mistake again. Time waits for no man, or organization. If Mara screws this up, he'll have no one but himself to blame.

The problem with casting a wide net is that sometimes the big fish gets away.