NHL Playoff Preview (Round One)

One of the most memorable regular seasons in years has finally come to an end. The last few days were particularly exciting, with the final Wild Card spot and seedings in both conferences not decided until game 82. Now comes the hard part: the playoffs, where the rubber meets the road.

Last season, I went 5-3 in the first round, which given how bad my regular season predictions were - I actually had the Seattle Kraken, Calgary Flames, Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators all making the playoffs this season - is nothing short of miraculous. 

Just like I did last time, I will start with the New York Rangers, then work my way down by conference. And again I feel compelled to remind everyone to take these predictions with a grain of salt. If my wealth were dependent on my prowess as a prognosticator, I'd be living in a box. Nostradamus I ain't.

Eastern Conference:

Rangers vs. Washington: This year's Presidents' trophy winner goes up against a team that finished the regular season with a minus 37 goal differential. The Rangers finished the regular season with a franchise record 55 wins and 114 points. With the exception of January, they were the lead dog pretty much from mid-October.

On paper, this series shouldn't be close. The stats tell a story of two very different teams. Alex Ovechkin led the Caps with 31 goals; Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider led the Rangers with 49 and 39 goals respectively. New York has two centers with more than 70 points a piece; Washington doesn't have any. Panarin led the Rangers in scoring with 120 points; Dylan Strome had 67 for the Caps. The Rangers defense was 4th in the NHL in scoring with 201 points; the Caps were 25th with 135. I could go on.

But as we know all too well, series aren't decided on paper; they're decided on the rink. And if you look carefully under the hood there are some things that should concern the Blueshirts.

Since the All-Star Break, the Caps have the number one power play in the NHL at 28.9 percent. The Rangers are 4th at 25.3 percent. For a team that relies heavily on its ability to score with the man advantage, that's not exactly good news. Fortunately, New York's penalty kill is much better than Washington's: 87.1 percent (2nd) to 77.8 percent (13th) over that stretch.

Then there's the goaltending. Since March 1, both Igor Shesterkin and Charlie Lindgren - Ryan's brother - have identical .916 save percentages and three shutouts. What this means is that yet another advantage the Rangers were hoping to capitalize on will be neutralized.

Last, but not least, there's that old bugaboo that has plagued the Rangers for years: their propensity to play down to the level of their opponent. If it should rear its ugly head in this series, this will be the worst offseason in franchise history, and that includes last year when they were dispatched by the New Jersey Devils. More than ever, this team must ignore the standings and treat the Caps as if they were the Colorado Avalanche.

To prevail, the Rangers must do three things: 1. Play with the lead. Coming from behind against a team that won its last two games 2-0 and 2-1 is playing with fire; 2. Exploit Washington's lack of speed by playing an uptempo game. The Caps may be bigger, but the Rangers are faster; 3. Avoid turnovers at the blue line, especially in the 3rd period. In what promises to be a low-scoring series, every mistake has the potential to be costly.

In the end, the Rangers are the far better team. They have the depth and skill to dispense with the Capitals. If Filip Chytil is able to play and Peter Laviolette decides to dress him, that will give the Blueshirts yet another weapon at their disposal. But this will hardly be a cake walk. Those predicting a sweep are likely to be disappointed. Rangers in six.

Carolina vs. Islanders: For the second straight season these two teams will meet in the first round. Last year, the Hurricanes won in six. But that Canes team didn't have Jake Guentzel, who since his arrival from Pittsburgh has 7 goals and 18 assists in 17 games. This Isles team is actually deeper offensively than last year's team but not nearly as good defensively, especially against the power play where they rank near the bottom of the league. Patrick Roy's group will put up a fight, but they will come up short. Hurricanes in six.

Florida vs. Tampa Bay: Two years ago, the Bolts swept the Puddy Tats in the second round on their way to a third consecutive Stanley Cup finals appearance. Since then, the Panthers have retooled and are a much tougher team to play against. Last year, they made it all the way to Cup finals before losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. Throughout most of this season, they flirted with the best record in the league. By contrast, Tampa has turned over 50 percent of its roster and has looked nothing like those championship teams. The tables have finally turned in the Sunshine State. Panthers in six.

Boston vs. Toronto: One of these years the Maple Leafs will hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. But it won't be this year. Even after losing their top two centers to retirement over the summer, the Bruins are the better team in this matchup. It isn't just that they went 4-0 against the Leafs during the regular season; it's that their forte is checking, which is the Achilles heel of the Leafs, a roster that more closely resembles an All-Star team than a Cup contender. 1967 is fast becoming the new 1940. Bruins in six.

Western Conference:

Dallas vs. Vegas: The Golden Knights will regret not winning their last regular season game. That's because had they done so, they would've avoided playing the Stars, who finished the regular season 12-2-0 and pound for pound are the deepest, most balanced team in the NHL. There are no superstars on this roster; just a relentless group of forwards and defensemen who play the game the way it was meant to be played. And they've got the goaltending to go all the way. Stars in six.

Vancouver vs. Nashville: With all due respect to Peter Laviolette, Rick Tocchet deserves the Jack Adams Award. Since replacing Bruce Boudreau behind the bench midway through last season, the Canucks are 70-35-13. That's a .648 winning percentage. If Thatcher Demko is healthy, they will make a deep run in the postseason. Canucks in six.

Winnipeg vs. Colorado: Talk about a dichotomy. The number one defense in the NHL pitted against the number one offense. The Jets will have the likely Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck in net, while the Avs will have Alexandar Georgiev. Nuff said. Nathan MacKinnon may have to settle for winning the Hart Trophy this season. Jets in six.

Edmonton vs. Los Angeles: For the third consecutive year, these two teams will meet in the playoffs, with the Oilers having won the last two. Kris Knoblauch's greatest accomplishment since taking over for Jay Woodcroft wasn't getting the Oilers back on the winning track. They had more than enough talent to do that on their own. It was getting them to commit to playing defense. The results speak for themselves. Edmonton gave up the 10th fewest goals in the league. The Kings' 1-3-1 system will slow down the Oilers high-powered offense a bit, but it won't be able to stop it. Oilers in six.

Assuming the Rangers win their series, I'll do the next round once this one is over.

NHL Power Rankings: Separating the Contenders From the Pretenders

Before I get to the power rankings, I wanted to take a minute to personally thank Gary Bettman for shutting down the NHL over the Christmas holiday. It isn't everyday that a commissioner of a major professional sports league decides to remove his sport from all public exposure at a time when millions of fans are home with their families. Way to go, Gary.

And to think this league had the nerve to only raise the salary cap $1 million because the players still owed $70 million in back escrow. To quote Forrest Gump, "Stupid is as stupid does."

Now onto the pièce de résistance.

Unlike traditional power rankings, which are typically league based, I've decided to break mine down by conference. Until the NHL goes to a 16 team playoff format, it doesn't make sense to do it any other way. I've also decided to break it down further by contender and pretender, and to omit the very worst teams in each conference. Why waste time on the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Chicago Blackhawks?

As always, don't take it too seriously. It's all done in fun.

Eastern Conference:

Contenders:

New York Rangers: They're off to their fastest start since the '94 Cup team. And they've managed to do it with only two scoring lines. Just imagine how much better they'll be once Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko return. With Igor Shesterkin regaining his Vezina-trophy form and Jonathan Quick in reserve, they will be very tough to beat in the postseason.

Boston Bruins: The retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí haven't stopped this team from once more ascending to the top of the standings in the Atlantic division. What they lack in offensive explosiveness, they more than make up for in grit. They have the defense and goaltending to go all the way.

Florida Panthers: Last year's Cup finalists are no fluke. With Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart, they are loaded up front; and with Sergei Bobrosky in net, they have a clear path back to the finals.

Toronto Maple Leafs: The fab four - Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares - might be the most talented quartet in the NHL. They are fast and lethal. The only question mark - and it's a big one - is their goaltending.

New York Islanders: Their minus 4 goal differential is a concern, but their offense - long a sore spot - is starting to percolate. They're tough as nails to play against, and with their goaltending, they will give any opponent they meet in the first round fits.

Philadelphia Flyers: If you had the former Broadstreet Bullies as contenders prior to the season, you're a better man than me. I didn't even have them as a "close but no cigar." But John Tortorella has somehow managed to get this team to believe in itself. The return of Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson hasn't hurt either.

Pretenders:

Washington Capitals: Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain. The Caps are a painful reminder that no matter how good your defense is, you can't win in this league when you have the second worst offense.

Tampa Bay Lightning: One game they look like the team that won back-to-back Cups; the next they look like the San Jose Sharks. They are finally paying the price for manipulating the salary cap. Karma truly is a bitch.

Carolina Hurricanes: They've never had great goaltending or elite-level forwards, but now their defense is leaking like a sieve. Hard to believe this is a Rod Brind'Amour-coached team.

New Jersey Devils: Serves me right for picking them to win the Metro. Tom Fitzgerald was trying to create an east-coast version of the Edmonton Oilers. He seems to have succeeded, though not the way he intended.

Detroit Red Wings: Since Patrick Kane's arrival in Motown, the Wings are 2-6-1. Maybe Steve Yzerman should've gotten himself a legit goalie instead of a future hall of fame winger.

Pittsburgh Penguins: The oldest team in the NHL underachieving for the second straight season. Gee, who coulda seen that coming?

Buffalo Sabres: Don't beat yourself up. I, too, was taken in by their potential. They can score; it's stopping the other team from scoring that's the problem.

Montreal Canadiens: They're still a year or two away, but credit Marty St. Louis for turning around a locker room that had gotten used to losing.

Western Conference:

Contenders:

Vegas Golden Knights: They can role four lines and their defense is big and battle tested. Vegas's strength is their depth throughout the lineup. They won the Cup last season and are the odds-on favorites to repeat.

Vancouver Canucks: In just over a year Rick Tocchet has transformed this perennial underachiever into a bonafide contender. They have the best goal differential in the NHL, the number one offense and the sixth best defense.

Los Angeles Kings: Very quietly, Cam Talbot is making his bid to win the Vezina trophy this season, which would be quite a feat given he was supposedly washed up last season. They're deep down the middle and have the best defense in the league.

Dallas Stars: This is a team that can compete with the best in the league. The only concern is in goal where Jake Oettinger hasn't quite gotten back to the level of excellence he showed last season.

Colorado Avalanche: Their core is as elite as it gets; it's the rest of the roster that gives you pause. Still, they are quite capable of making a deep run in the playoffs.

Winnipeg Jets: They traded arguably their second best center and got better. Connor Hellebuyck might be the most under-appreciated goaltender in the league, and Mark Scheifele is finally emerging as a leader on this team.

Pretenders:

Nashville Predators: Like the Washington Capitals, they're using smoke and mirrors to conceal their deficiencies. It'll catch up to them eventually.

Edmonton Oilers: Don't be seduced by the wins in New York and New Jersey. This is not a team that is built to go four rounds. Would loved to have seen what they could've done in the '80s when defense was optional.

Minnesota Wild: As long as they have that dead cap weight on their books, GM Bill Guerin will struggle to fill out a roster that will be good enough to compete in the regular season, much less in the postseason.

St. Louis Blues: The only reason they might sneak into the postseason is because the Western Conference is so weak in the middle. Don't let that fool you. They're in rebuild mode.

Calgary Flames: Boy was I wrong about this team. I figured the problem last year was Darryl Sutter. Turns out it was the roster all along. Makes you wonder how the hell Brad Trelving got the gig in Toronto.

Seattle Kraken: After coming within a win of advancing to the conference finals last season, they are in contention for biggest disappointment of the 2023-24 season. Which is saying a lot given how many teams could qualify for that distinction.

Arizona Coyotes: How 'bout this for the storyline of the year? The Yotes are sellers at the trade deadline yet still manage to make the playoffs. Don't laugh, it could happen.

Who Will Drury Hire to Replace Gallant?

Well, at least this time Gerard Gallant didn't get fired on his way to the airport. Chris Drury had the good taste to do it in person, even if his explanation for making the move didn't pass the smell test. "Mutually agreed to part ways," my ass. I remember the last time I "mutually agreed to part ways" with an employer. I was walked back to my desk, gathered my personal belongings, and allowed to say goodbye to my former coworkers while I was being escorted out of the building. To paraphrase a line out of the movie Forrest Gump, "termination is as termination does."

So now that Gallant is out, who will replace him? Drury has made a lot of critical decisions over his tenure as President and GM; none more critical than this. For his own sake and that of the franchise, he cannot afford to screw it up.

But before we get to the available candidates, it needs to be acknowledged, if it hasn't already, the amazing job Rod Brind'Amour is doing behind the Carolina Hurricanes bench. Despite getting blown out by the Devils in game three in New Jersey, and with three key forwards out of the lineup due to injury, he has his team up two games to one. Maybe it would've been impossible for Drury to sign him two years ago, but for my money, that is the type of coach the Rangers need; one who's not only good with Xs and Os but who can motivate his players to play a disciplined style of hockey. Take a good look at the teams that are ahead in their respective series. It is not the stars who are leading the way, but the foot soldiers. That is a tribute to the men behind the bench.

And speaking of the men behind the bench, the list of candidates Drury will have to choose from will be minus one important name. Larry Brooks of The New York Post is reporting that Joel Quenneville will not be considered for the job. As I pointed out in my last piece, Quenneville certainly has the credentials to coach this team, but his conduct in the sexual assault of Kyle Beach in 2010 has tarnished his reputation, perhaps beyond repair. I'm guessing either James Dolan got cold feet or Drury simply put his foot down. Regardless, it's good news for the Rangers.

Peter Laviolette: Out of all the big names out there, he's probably the most qualified. He guided the Hurricanes to their one and only Stanley Cup in 2006, and he took two other teams to the Cup finals: the Philadelphia Flyers in 2010 and the Nashville Predators in 2017. He also kept a Washington Capitals team riddled with injuries in the playoff hunt going into the final few games of the season. A no-nonsense coach who demands accountability from his players and excels at Xs and Os, he's the closest to the Brind'Amour mold in both temperament and style as Drury is likely to find.

Andrew Brunette: After Quenneville was suspended by the NHL early in the 2021-22 season, Brunette took over the coaching duties and guided the Florida Panthers to their first and only Presidents' trophy. And for his efforts, he was replaced behind the bench this season by Paul Maurice. What impresses me most about Brunette is how he turned an underperforming team into an offensive juggernaut before the flaws finally caught up with them in the second round against the Tampa Bay Lightning, He's currently an assistant with the Devils so Drury would need permission to speak with him.

Kris Knoblauch: While it would be a reach for Drury to go this route, there are a couple of positive attributes that would make him a good choice. For starters, he has the Hartford Wolf Pack in the third round of the AHL playoffs with a lineup that consists of maybe three players who are NHL-caliber. Secondly, he's been behind the Rangers bench twice when David Quinn and Gallant both got Covid, so the players are familiar with him. And last but not least, he's considered a good teacher and a good motivator; the latter being something that could've come in handy in game seven against the Devils.

Mike Sullivan: Yes, he won back-to-back Cups his first two years in Pittsburgh, but the Penguins haven't gotten out of the first round since 2018, and this season failed to even make the playoffs. That ownership decided to fire GM Ron Hextall and President Brian Burke and keep Sullivan is an indication that they don't feel the problem is behind the bench but rather in the front office. Translation, if Drury wants him, he'll have to fork over a draft pick or two to get him. Doubtful that'll happen.

Bruce Boudreau: Yet another players' coach who got fired from his last gig, he makes Gallant look like John Tortorella. Somehow I don't see Drury going down the same rabbit hole twice, but you never know.

Mark Messier: What he accomplished as a player for this franchise will never be forgotten. And I must admit the idea of "The Captain" leading this team to only its second Stanley Cup championship since World War II is enticing. But just because Messier was a great player doesn't necessarily mean he would make a great coach, and like I wrote above, Drury can't afford to get this next decision wrong.

Darryl Sutter: If you think the exit interviews from Gallant's players sealed his fate, you should check out some of the ones Sutter got from his players in Calgary. Supposedly several demanded to be traded unless he was fired. There's no doubt Sutter can coach - he won two Cups in L.A.; the problem is the way he treats his players. Next to him, Mike Keenan was Father Flanagan.

Of the above choices, Laviolette is the safe one. But if I recall, we said the same thing about Gallant two years ago. While Knoblauch would be a risk, the upside could be huge. Drury has said he's going to take his time, but realistically, he'll need to fill the position soon. The entry draft is June 28 followed by the start of free agency July 1.

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on Laviolette becoming the next head coach, but then I had the Bruins, Avalanche and Rangers all advancing in the first round.