Joe Schoen Doesn't Pull a Gettleman

Going into the 2019 NFL Draft, New York Giants GM Dave Gettleman was looking for a successor to Eli Manning. The previous year, he used the number one overall pick to draft Saquon Barkley. Landing a franchise running back and a franchise quarterback in consecutive drafts would've been quite the feather in Gettleman's cap.

Unfortunately for Gettleman, the quarterback he wanted - Justin Herbert - decided to stay one more year at Oregon. So instead of waiting until 2020 to get his man, Gettleman took Daniel Jones with the 6th pick in the 2019 Draft. To say that pick was a reach would be putting it mildly. Every single draft board had Jones as a late first or early second-rounder at best. Compounding the issue was the fact that the Giants had two first round picks that year - 6 and 17 - meaning they could've taken linebacker Josh Allen with the 6th pick and still had Jones at 17.

While Jones has struggled to deliver on his promise, Allen has become one of the NFL's best edge rushers. Last season he recorded 17.5 sacks. And Herbert, who was drafted by the L.A. Chargers the following year - ironically at 6 - is one of the best signal callers in the league.

Credit Joe Schoen this much: the man takes good notes. Going into this year’s NFL Draft, the Giants once again had the 6th overall pick. J.J. McCarthy of Michigan was sitting there just waiting to be snatched up. His former coach, Jim Harbaugh, raved about him, calling him the best quarterback in the Draft.

But Schoen wasn't biting. In fact, he tried to move up to number 3 to get Drake Maye, whom he believed to be a much better QB, but the New England Patriots were not interested in trading down. So instead of reaching like his predecessor did five years ago, he took the best available player on the board.

Malik Nabers is unquestionably the most dynamic and explosive wide receiver in this year's draft class. The Giants haven’t had a player with this much talent at that position since Odell Beckham, Jr. With the departure of Barkley to the Philadelphia Eagles during the offseason, Nabers instantly becomes this team's number one offensive weapon. Whatever else you might say about how bad things went for the Giants last season, the front office had itself a pretty good night last night.

True, the Giants are still stuck with Jones for at least another season. With the contract he signed last year, there's no way in hell they can cut him; the dead cap hit alone would be $69.3 million. So, like it or not, Danny Dimes will get one more shot to prove he's a franchise quarterback. But this time he'll have an elite receiver to throw the ball to.

As for Schoen, his work is not done. He still needs to find a replacement for Xavier McKinney, who bolted for the Green Bay Packers over the winter. Then there's the offensive line, which continues to need help. In other words, there's plenty of holes still left to fill for Joe.

So far, I'd give him an A for the first day of the draft; overall, an A minus for his tenure as general manger. And that's more than I can say for the guy he replaced.

Two Close for Comfort

Two up, two down, two to go. 

Seems like I wrote those words before. Know what? I did. Last year, in fact, after the New York Rangers took a 2-0 lead over the New Jersey Devils in their best of seven series. And then the roof fell in as the Blueshirts dropped four of the last five games. Season over and out.

If you're a fan of this team, you can be forgiven for experiencing a sense of déjà vu. Because, quite frankly, we've seen this movie before, and it never ends well. 

Now, before I go any further, one thing needs be cleared up: the Washington Capitals are NOT the Devils. New Jersey was one of the best teams in the NHL last season; the Caps barely qualified for the postseason and had one of the worst regular-season goal differentials for a team qualifying for the playoffs in league history.

Which makes last night's 4-3 win at the Garden something to be concerned about. Yes, the Rangers defended their home ice; and, yes, the Capitals needed to come out with a much better effort than they showed in game one. But no one who objectively watched that game could come away thinking the Rangers dominated play. Apart from stretches in the first and second periods, the Caps more than held their own with the Presidents' Trophy winners. New York was pinned in its own zone for the last three minutes of the third period, desperately clinging to a one-goal lead that had been a two-goal lead before the home team stupidly took a too-many men on the ice penalty that Washington cashed in on. Overall, the Caps went 2-5 with the man advantage after going 0-4 in game one. As I wrote in my playoff preview, since the All-Star Break, Washington has the number one power play in the league at 28.9 percent. It would behoove the Rangers to do their best to stay out of the penalty box the rest of this series.

Look, do I think history will repeat itself? No, I don't. The Capitals simply don't have the talent to keep up with a Rangers team that is clearly deeper and more skilled. Through two games, eight different Rangers have scored a goal, including the big guns: Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider.

And to be fair, when you look at how the other first-round matchups are going, it's not like any team, save for one, has a stranglehold over its opponent. In fact, the Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars and Boston Bruins have all lost the home ice advantage in their respective series. It wouldn't surprise me if at least one of those teams wound up getting booted.

My concern isn't with this round, it's with the next. Because if a team like the Caps can make the Rangers work that hard, just imagine what the Carolina Hurricanes are going to do to them. Did you see how they handled the Islanders the other night in Raleigh? The Canes made the Isles look like an AHL team, outshooting them 17-1 in the 3rd period. Between the two teams, it's Carolina that has a better shot of sweeping its opponent than the Rangers. If the Blueshirts believe they're going to take four out of seven from that team playing like they did against the Caps, they have another thing coming.

Thirty years ago, another Rangers team made quick work of a Capitals team that was a huge underdog. That team went on to win the Stanley Cup. Will this Rangers team follow in that team's footsteps?

Only time will tell.

Knicks Playoff Preview (Round One)

Face it: when Julius Randle went down with an injury against the Miami Heat at the Garden on January 27 - followed a couple of games later by OG Anunoby - things didn't look too good for the New York Knicks. After an incredible January in which they went 14-2, the Knicks came crashing back down to Earth in February, going 4-8. On February 29, their record stood at 35-25. They were in danger of falling out of the top six in the Eastern Conference. A once promising season was slipping away.

But this Knicks team refused to die. They went 9-5 in March without Randle and without OG for all but two games. Then with a healthy OG back in the lineup in April, they won the last five games of the regular season to finish with their first 50 win season since 2013. They not only avoided the Play-In round, they clinched the number two seed in the Eastern Conference. 

Tell me you saw that coming. I sure as shit didn't.

And now these very same Knicks, the ones nobody gave an ice cube's chance in hell of being in this position, get to make believers out of none other than the Philadelphia 76ers, who beat the Heat in the Play-In to clinch the 7th seed. The two teams begin a best of seven series at the Garden Saturday night.

The are three things the Knicks have to do in order to move on to the next round:

1. Contain Joel Embiid. Against the Heat, Embiid looked slow. It was clear he was still favoring his surgically repaired knee. The Knicks need to make him work for every shot and rebound he gets. Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein need to stay on him like white on rice. If they don't; if Embiid is allowed to roam at will, this will be a very short series the other way. Even at 80 percent, he's still one of the best players in the league.

2. Jalen Brunson must score. The Sixers will double team Brunson every time he touches the ball just like the Lakers did in the 4th quarter of that February game at the Garden. It will be up to his teammates to make sure they set enough screens to free him up. Like Embiid, Brunson is capable of dominating a series. He needs to score at least 30 points per game for the Knicks to have a shot.

3. The bench needs to contribute. And by contribute, I mean more than a measly 10 points per game. Between Bojan Bogdanovic, Precious Achiuwa, Robinson and Deuce McBride, the bench has to score at least 20 points per game. They also have to play more than a few minutes. Tom Thibodeau can't continue to ride Brunson and Josh Hart to the tune of 40 plus minutes per game. Philly will wipe the court with them if that happens.

I like the Knicks chances here. They allowed the second fewest points per game during the regular season at 108.2. And they are 20-3 in games in which Anunoby has played. It won't be easy. Losing Randle for the season will eventually catch up with them, but not in this series. Knicks in six.

Here's how I expect the rest of the first round matchups to go.

Eastern Conference:

Boston over Miami in five: Without Jimmy Butler, the Heat don't have a chance. What a shame.

Indiana over Milwaukee in six: Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks would've had a tough time time dealing with the Pacers transition game. If he misses more than two games, this could be a sweep.

Orlando over Cleveland in six: Sorry, but I just don't get all the hoopla over the Cavs. The Knicks took them out in five last year with a hobbled Randle. If anything, I'm being generous by giving them two wins.

Western Conference:

Oklahoma City over New Orleans in six: Losing Zion Williamson in the Play-In pretty much killed any chance the Pelicans had of winning this series.

Denver over L.A. Lakers in seven: Maybe it's the sentimentalist in me but I think LeBron will do his best to drag the Lakers across the finish line. He'll come up short.

Minnesota over Phoenix in five: The only team that allowed fewer points per game than the Knicks were the Timberwolves. This was not the matchup the Suns were hoping for.

Dallas over L.A. Clippers in six: Never trust a team that has James Harden on it.

If the Knicks move on, I'll preview the second round.

NHL Playoff Preview (Round One)

One of the most memorable regular seasons in years has finally come to an end. The last few days were particularly exciting, with the final Wild Card spot and seedings in both conferences not decided until game 82. Now comes the hard part: the playoffs, where the rubber meets the road.

Last season, I went 5-3 in the first round, which given how bad my regular season predictions were - I actually had the Seattle Kraken, Calgary Flames, Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators all making the playoffs this season - is nothing short of miraculous. 

Just like I did last time, I will start with the New York Rangers, then work my way down by conference. And again I feel compelled to remind everyone to take these predictions with a grain of salt. If my wealth were dependent on my prowess as a prognosticator, I'd be living in a box. Nostradamus I ain't.

Eastern Conference:

Rangers vs. Washington: This year's Presidents' trophy winner goes up against a team that finished the regular season with a minus 37 goal differential. The Rangers finished the regular season with a franchise record 55 wins and 114 points. With the exception of January, they were the lead dog pretty much from mid-October.

On paper, this series shouldn't be close. The stats tell a story of two very different teams. Alex Ovechkin led the Caps with 31 goals; Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider led the Rangers with 49 and 39 goals respectively. New York has two centers with more than 70 points a piece; Washington doesn't have any. Panarin led the Rangers in scoring with 120 points; Dylan Strome had 67 for the Caps. The Rangers defense was 4th in the NHL in scoring with 201 points; the Caps were 25th with 135. I could go on.

But as we know all too well, series aren't decided on paper; they're decided on the rink. And if you look carefully under the hood there are some things that should concern the Blueshirts.

Since the All-Star Break, the Caps have the number one power play in the NHL at 28.9 percent. The Rangers are 4th at 25.3 percent. For a team that relies heavily on its ability to score with the man advantage, that's not exactly good news. Fortunately, New York's penalty kill is much better than Washington's: 87.1 percent (2nd) to 77.8 percent (13th) over that stretch.

Then there's the goaltending. Since March 1, both Igor Shesterkin and Charlie Lindgren - Ryan's brother - have identical .916 save percentages and three shutouts. What this means is that yet another advantage the Rangers were hoping to capitalize on will be neutralized.

Last, but not least, there's that old bugaboo that has plagued the Rangers for years: their propensity to play down to the level of their opponent. If it should rear its ugly head in this series, this will be the worst offseason in franchise history, and that includes last year when they were dispatched by the New Jersey Devils. More than ever, this team must ignore the standings and treat the Caps as if they were the Colorado Avalanche.

To prevail, the Rangers must do three things: 1. Play with the lead. Coming from behind against a team that won its last two games 2-0 and 2-1 is playing with fire; 2. Exploit Washington's lack of speed by playing an uptempo game. The Caps may be bigger, but the Rangers are faster; 3. Avoid turnovers at the blue line, especially in the 3rd period. In what promises to be a low-scoring series, every mistake has the potential to be costly.

In the end, the Rangers are the far better team. They have the depth and skill to dispense with the Capitals. If Filip Chytil is able to play and Peter Laviolette decides to dress him, that will give the Blueshirts yet another weapon at their disposal. But this will hardly be a cake walk. Those predicting a sweep are likely to be disappointed. Rangers in six.

Carolina vs. Islanders: For the second straight season these two teams will meet in the first round. Last year, the Hurricanes won in six. But that Canes team didn't have Jake Guentzel, who since his arrival from Pittsburgh has 7 goals and 18 assists in 17 games. This Isles team is actually deeper offensively than last year's team but not nearly as good defensively, especially against the power play where they rank near the bottom of the league. Patrick Roy's group will put up a fight, but they will come up short. Hurricanes in six.

Florida vs. Tampa Bay: Two years ago, the Bolts swept the Puddy Tats in the second round on their way to a third consecutive Stanley Cup finals appearance. Since then, the Panthers have retooled and are a much tougher team to play against. Last year, they made it all the way to Cup finals before losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. Throughout most of this season, they flirted with the best record in the league. By contrast, Tampa has turned over 50 percent of its roster and has looked nothing like those championship teams. The tables have finally turned in the Sunshine State. Panthers in six.

Boston vs. Toronto: One of these years the Maple Leafs will hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. But it won't be this year. Even after losing their top two centers to retirement over the summer, the Bruins are the better team in this matchup. It isn't just that they went 4-0 against the Leafs during the regular season; it's that their forte is checking, which is the Achilles heel of the Leafs, a roster that more closely resembles an All-Star team than a Cup contender. 1967 is fast becoming the new 1940. Bruins in six.

Western Conference:

Dallas vs. Vegas: The Golden Knights will regret not winning their last regular season game. That's because had they done so, they would've avoided playing the Stars, who finished the regular season 12-2-0 and pound for pound are the deepest, most balanced team in the NHL. There are no superstars on this roster; just a relentless group of forwards and defensemen who play the game the way it was meant to be played. And they've got the goaltending to go all the way. Stars in six.

Vancouver vs. Nashville: With all due respect to Peter Laviolette, Rick Tocchet deserves the Jack Adams Award. Since replacing Bruce Boudreau behind the bench midway through last season, the Canucks are 70-35-13. That's a .648 winning percentage. If Thatcher Demko is healthy, they will make a deep run in the postseason. Canucks in six.

Winnipeg vs. Colorado: Talk about a dichotomy. The number one defense in the NHL pitted against the number one offense. The Jets will have the likely Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck in net, while the Avs will have Alexandar Georgiev. Nuff said. Nathan MacKinnon may have to settle for winning the Hart Trophy this season. Jets in six.

Edmonton vs. Los Angeles: For the third consecutive year, these two teams will meet in the playoffs, with the Oilers having won the last two. Kris Knoblauch's greatest accomplishment since taking over for Jay Woodcroft wasn't getting the Oilers back on the winning track. They had more than enough talent to do that on their own. It was getting them to commit to playing defense. The results speak for themselves. Edmonton gave up the 10th fewest goals in the league. The Kings' 1-3-1 system will slow down the Oilers high-powered offense a bit, but it won't be able to stop it. Oilers in six.

Assuming the Rangers win their series, I'll do the next round once this one is over.

The One Thing That Could Trip Up the Rangers

It's no secret that the New York Rangers are hardly a powerhouse when it comes to their even-strength play. Words like "pedestrian" and "ordinary" describe a team that is "23rd in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 (48.6%) through 78 games and slightly underwater on percentage of shot attempts per 60 minutes (49.8%), ranking 19th overall." And it's certainly no secret that their power play and goaltending will be keys to whatever success they hope to have in the postseason.

But while the analytic community may be split as to whether the Rangers are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, there is another, far bigger threat that could trip up this team once the playoffs begin. Over their last 13 games, the Rangers have surrendered the first goal ten times. In half of those games, the deficit has been two or more goals.

Tuesday night at UBS Arena, the Rangers got off to yet another slow start and struggled to establish themselves in the first 20 minutes of play. The Islanders took full advantage, scoring the game's first 3 goals. It would've been more had Igor Shesterkin not made several brilliant saves. When the Rangers finally woke up, they dominated the Isles the rest of the way, scoring two power play goals in the second period and registering the first 10 shots on goal in the third. Unfortunately for the Blueshirts, their rally fell short and they lost 4-2.

Not every slow start has led to a loss. Against the Pittsburgh Penguins (3/16), the Boston Bruins (3/21), the Florida Panthers (3/23) the Philadelphia Flyers (3/26), the Colorado Avalanche (3/28), and the Montreal Canadiens (4/7) the Rangers were successfully able to overcome their sluggish start and win. Indeed, the Rangers lead the NHL with 27 come-from-behind victories; 13 of them came when they were trailing going into the third period.

And therein lies the problem. It’s one thing to play from behind and not get burned during the regular season; it’s quite another to do it in the playoffs. The Rangers are playing with fire if they think they can make a deep run in the postseason by adopting this strategy. Maybe they beat the Islanders or the Capitals in a seven-game series playing like that, but good luck beating the Carolina Hurricanes. This season, the Rangers were 2-1 against the Canes. Both times they won, they played with the lead; the one time they didn't, they trailed early.

The simple truth is that the teams which represent the biggest challenge to the Rangers on their road to the Stanley Cup will not be so easy to come from behind against once the postseason begins. Even the Bruins, a team the Rangers went 3-0 against, will eat them alive if they don't snap out of this funk.

Priority number one for Peter Laviolette and his coaching staff will be to convince this very talented team to show up on time and play a full 60 minutes. These inexplicable slow starts must stop, and stop now. He must light a fire under his players while there is still time. 

The good news is that the Rangers have, for the most part, responded positively to what their head coach has preached. From day one, the emphasis has been on structure and puck management. They've been the cornerstones of their success all season long. It's the principle reason why, with the exception of January, they've been among the best teams in the league, and are currently on the verge of winning their first Presidents' Trophy since 2015.

Two years ago, the Rangers trailed the Penguins 3-1 in the first round. They won the next three games; the last one coming in overtime at the Garden. In the next round, they trailed the Hurricanes 2-0 before winning 4 of the next 5 games. In both series, they beat the odds to prevail. 

If the Rangers know what's good for them, they will do everything in their power to avoid tempting the hand of fate again.

Nova Prime

On the same night the New York Knicks found out that Julius Randle's season was officially over, they could've rolled over and phoned it in. And for a while there against the Sacramento Kings, it looked as if they were about to do just that. They trailed the Kings 39-20 early in the second quarter at the Garden. Losers of three straight, they were well on their way to their fourth.

But then this incredibly resilient, but undermanned, group of athletes found an inner resolve and refused to lose. They outscored the Kings 100-70 the rest of the way to improve their record to 45-31. The victory allowed them to keep pace with the Orlando Magic, who had beaten the New Orleans Pelicans the night before.

Leading the way for the Blue and Orange was the awesome threesome from Villanova: Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart. The three combined for 87 of New York's 120 points. But though Brunson led all scorers with 35 points, it was Hart's 31 that proved the most consequential. Hart has been coach Tom Thibodeau's Swiss army knife all season long. His versatility has allowed Thibs to play him at either the 2, 3 or 4. Not noted for his scoring prowess, last night's production was sorely needed and much appreciated by his teammates.

Indeed, while Brunson continues to prove his detractors wrong, amid the chants of "MVP," it's the production of DiVincenzo and Hart that have allowed this Knicks team to flirt with second place in the Eastern Conference, even after Randle and OG Anunoby went down at the end of January. And any hope they have of winning a round or two in the postseason will hinge on how well these three incredibly talented players perform. 

Thibodeau's decision to ostensibly go with four guards in his starting lineup the last few games is a tacit admission by him that he realizes the Knicks don't have an ice cube's chance in hell with a more conventional starting lineup. Let's face it: Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks have both been busts since their arrival from Detroit. The only bright spot is that at least Leon Rose didn't part with any of his first round picks to land them. But their failure to produce offense has forced Thibs to run his guards ragged. The other night in Miami, they looked gassed. How much longer he can afford to do this remains to be seen.

The good news for the Knicks is that of their remaining six games, three are against the Chicago Bulls and one is against the Brooklyn Nets. A record of 49-33 is certainly doable and just might be enough to secure the 4th seed in the East, which would give them the home court against the Magic. Who knows, if Anunoby makes it back in time for the playoffs, a deep run could still be in the offing.

It's nice to dream, isn't it?

The Sad Reality About the Knicks

This season, the New York Knicks are second in the NBA with a 123.1 offensive rating when Jalen Brunson is on the court. Conversely, they are 30th in the league with a 103.4 offensive rating when he is on the bench.

The numbers are as undeniable as they are alarming. When Brunson is on the court, the Knicks are one of the best teams in the NBA; when he isn't, they're one of the worst. Last night's game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Garden illustrated that point. The Knicks were leading the Thunder by 10  after three. Coach Tom Thibodeau, for some reason, elected to keep Brunson on the bench to start the 4th quarter and OKC rolled off seven straight points.

By the time Brunson re-entered the game with 7:42 left, all the momentum the Knicks had built up was gone. And while it's true that there should've been a foul on the Brunson layup that gave New York a 112-111 lead with 4.1 seconds left, the real culprit was a Knicks bench that has been putrid ever since the trade deadline. 

Last night, the Thunder bench outscored the Knicks bench 36-18. The other night in San Antonio, the Spurs bench outscored the Knicks bench 38-19. The Spurs, it should be noted, are one of the worst teams in the NBA. Yet, had it not been for Brunson's 61 point performance, they would've blown out the Knicks. Think about that: a 17 win team beating a 44 win team.

There's no getting around it: without Julius Randle, OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks don't have the depth necessary to compete with the top teams in the league, unless Brunson plays all 48 minutes. Yes, they can handle most of the basement dwellers, but that's about it. For the better part of the last eight weeks, ever since Randle and Anunoby went down, Thibodeau has been primarily relying on six players to save the season. It was refreshing to see the return of Anunoby and Robinson, if only for a couple of games, but both players suffered setbacks and are now listed as day to day.

Things were going so well only a couple of months ago. The Knicks were the hottest team in the league. They went 14-2 in January. The trade that brought Aununoby and Precious Achiuwa from Toronto for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley looked like the steal of the decade. There was talk of a possible deep run in the playoffs.

But then Randle went down with a shoulder separation against the Heat on January 27, followed a game later by Anunuoby with what was described initially as soreness of the right elbow. Not to worry, we were told. Randle likely wouldn't need surgery, and even though Aununoby eventually did require surgery to remove bone chips, the procedure was not considered season ending. Both players were expected back in time for the playoffs, along with Robinson.

But now that's all up in the air. Randle still has not been cleared for contact in practice, and since Anunoby suffered a setback with his elbow, he too hasn't had contact in practice. There is no timetable for either to return. And while Robinson's ankle soreness continues to be monitored, no one knows when or if he'll return.

Josh Hart may have summed up the Knicks situation best when he said during a post-game interview, "I'm looking at it like this is the team we're going to have. I think that's how we have to approach it, like those guys aren't coming back. And obviously we'll be pleasantly surprised if they come back."

So, pending a miracle, the starting rotation for the remainder of the season will be as follows: Isaiah Hartenstein, Hart, Deuce McBride, Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo; the bench will be Achiuwa, Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks, with an odd appearance or two of Jericho Sims. You can kiss the Eastern Conference finals goodbye. With this lineup, the Knicks would be lucky to get out of the first round.

The good news is that Leon Rose still has all his first round draft picks that he can use as trade bait over the summer. With Brunson and a healthy Randle and Anunoby - assuming they sign him - the Knicks will be a legit contender next season.

But it still sucks knowing what could've been.