Sunday, April 26, 2020

Breaking Down the 2020 NFL Draft


Before I get around to the winners and the losers, let's give it up for the NFL. The 2020 draft went off without a hitch. Based on the beta test they did on Monday, there was plenty to worry about. Also, more than 15 million people tuned in Thursday night to watch the first round, a draft record. Don't tell me this country doesn't love sports. Though to be honest, with pretty much the whole country on "lockdown," I'm not that surprised at the ratings. There are only so many re-runs you can watch before you lose your mind.

Now onto the draft. Several things stood out. For starters, there were a shitload of offensive tackles taken in the first round. Six overall, with four of them going in the first 13 picks. What that told me was 1. There were a lot of exceptional tackles; and 2. Contrary to past drafts, a lot of teams went with need over best available player on the board.

Secondly, this was one of the deepest drafts that I can recall in quite some time. There were genuine steals as deep as the fourth and fifth rounds that in past years would've been taken much sooner. Clearly, it was a very good collegiate year.

So who were the winners? As much as it pains me to admit, the Cowboys had the best draft from start to finish. They ended up with the best overall wide receiver - CeeDee Lamb - at 17, the second best corner - Trevon Diggs - at 51, their next starting center - Tyler Bladasz - at 146, and a promising defensive end - Bradlee Anae - at 179. Clearly, Mike McCarthy did his homework. I haven't seen Jerry Jones smile that much since the '90s.

Another winner was the Carolina Panthers. For the first time in the modern draft, a team devoted all its picks to one side of the ball. After finishing near the bottom of the league defensively, Matt Rhule decided to do something about it, and boy did he ever. He chose Derrick Brown, the best defensive tackle in the draft, Yetur Gross-Matos, an outstanding defensive end, Jeremy Chinn, the second best safety in the draft and corner back Troy Pride. John Mara should never have let him get away.

The biggest losers? Guess. I'd give a month's worth of unemployment insurance payments just to have had the pleasure of listening in on the phone call Matt LaFleur made to Aaron Rodgers after he took Jordan Love with the 24th pick in the first round. Not only didn't he address a major need on a team that was one game shy of going to the Super Bowl, he actually traded up for a player that might never start a game for the Packers. Hey, Dave Gettleman haters, cheer up, at least your GM didn't pull a boner like this.

Speaking of Big Blue, they had a good, but not great, draft. The first two picks were exceptional. As expected, Gettleman chose an offensive tackle with the fourth pick. While most thought the top two tackles were Tristan Wirfs and Jedrick Wills, Getteman went with Andrew Thomas of Georgia. Frankly there wasn't much daylight between these three, so I'm good with Thomas. According to the poop sheets, he was the most pro ready, whatever the hell that means. Plus, he's a natural left tackle, which means Nate Solder's days as a Giant are numbered.

Xavier McKinney was a steal at 36. He was the best safety in the draft. The only reason he was still on the board was because there was a run on tackles and wide receivers in the first round. Unfortunately, thanks to the Leonard Williams trade with the Jets, the Giants didn't have another pick until 99 - late in the third round. That meant they lost out on a several outstanding players like Zack Baun, an outside linebacker who recorded 12.5 sacks as a senior at Wisconsin. Instead, they took Matt Peart, another tackle. A good player but likely not a starter. Two rounds later, Gettleman took guard Shane Lemieux. Clearly, the offensive line was his top priority, as was the secondary.

Overall, I'd give the Jints a B+. They addressed two major concerns, but sadly did not land the pass rusher the team has needed ever since it sent Jason Pierre-Paul packing. And in this throw-first, run-second NFL, a team without a pass rusher is a team destined to lose, and lose is what the Giants have been doing a lot of lately; in fact, they've made the post-season once in the last seven years - 2016. Not coincidentally, that was there last winning season.

It's too early to tell whether these picks will significantly improve the Giants' fortunes. No doubt, Thomas will give Daniel Jones the time he needs to complete more of his passes and provide Saquon Barkley with the holes he needs to become the all-pro running back he is. McKinney will shore up a pass defense that was 30th in the league last year. And the free agent signings Gettlemann made during the off season will certainly help a team that went 4-12 in 2019.

Do I feel better now than I did going into Thursday's draft? Yes, but I'll reserve my judgment until I see tangible evidence that the coaching staff Gettleman has assembled is up to the task of transforming this team from a perennial loser to a playoff contender.


Tuesday, April 21, 2020

Who Should Giants Pick in the NFL Draft?


Defense or Offense? That's the sixty-four thousand dollar question before Dave Gettleman. What primary need does he address this Thursday with the 4th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft? Clearly, they need help on both sides of the football. They were ranked 30th defensively last year with one of the worst pass rushes in the league. And they were almost as bad at protecting the quarterback. So, either way, the Giants can't lose.

This will be the third consecutive year that the Giants will have a first round pick in the top 6. In 2018, they took Saquon Barkley with the 2nd pick; in 2019, they chose Daniel Jones with the 6th pick. Both picks turned out to be winners. In fact, with the exception of 2015 - Erick Flowers - the Giants have had pretty good success with their first rounders. It's the rest of the draft they've struggled with.

If we assume that the first two picks, QB Joe Burrow to the Bengals and DE Chase Young to the Redskins, are locks - and there's no reason to believe they aren't - the only question is whether the Lions and/or the Giants will trade down. That depends on how desperate the Dolphins (5th) and the Chargers (6th) are.

We know from past drafts that Gettleman does not trade down. However, this year he has indicated that he might listen to offers. It's clear that the Lions want Jeff Okudah. If neither team trades down, the Giants will have their choice of LB/S Isaiah Simmons, OT Tristan Wirfs or OT Jedrick Wills. All three are studs and can start on day one, assuming we have even have a day one.

So who would I pick? I happen to be a disciple of the George Young school of drafting. You always take the best player on the board when it's your turn. And for me, that's Simmons. To call this player a hybrid does a disservice to the word hybrid. The Prius is a hybrid; Simmons is a phenomenon. Adam Schein calls him an "absolute freak." He has the skill set to drop back into coverage as a safety or rush the quarterback as an edge. And he would be the first linebacker taken by the Giants in the first round since Carl Banks in 1984.

But if I were a betting man, I'd say that Gettleman opts for one of the two tackles, either Wirfs or Wills. My money's on Wills. He's from Alabama and Joe Judge's connection with Nick Saban will prove to be the tie breaker here. As far as I'm concerned, you can flip a coin between the two, that's how good they are. Both are hogs mollies and while they currently play on the right side, they could easily switch over to the left, which means Jones will have protection he needs on his blind side. The Giants can move Nate Solder and his $16 million cap hit to right tackle where he can do less damage.

As far as trading down goes, like I said, Gettleman may be open for business, but the opportunity might not present itself, especially if the glitches that took place Monday during the league's mock draft resurface on Thursday when they go live. And even if everything does run smoothly, the thing you don't want to do is trade so far down that you lose out on a top tier player in the draft. Whether you think an offensive tackle should be taken this high or not - and I don't - there's no denying the Giants desperately need one. Unless someone makes Gettleman an offer he can't refuse, he should stay right where he is and let the chips fall where they may. He still has nine picks over the next six rounds to get some defensive help. And there are plenty of quality players in this draft that can step in and make an impact this season; again assuming we even have one.

So here's how I think the first 15 picks of the draft will unfold:

1. Burrow QB to the Bengals
2. Young DL to the Redskins
3. Okudah CB to the Lions
4. Wills OL to the Giants
5. Tua Tagovailoa QB to the Dolphins
6. Justin Herbert QB to the Chargers
7. Simmons LB to the Panthers
8. Derrick Brown DL to the Cardinals
9. Javlon Kinlaw DL to the Jaguars
10. Wirfs OL to the Browns
11. Mekhi Becton OL to the Jets
12. Jerry Jeudy WR to the Raiders
13. CeeDee Lamb WR to the 49ers
14. Josh Jones OL to the Bucs
15. Henry Ruggs WR to the Broncos

And in a surprise move, Jordan Love QB to the Saints at 24.