Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Drury is Carefully Building a Championship Team Right Before Our Eyes.


Now that the trade deadline has come and gone and the new players the Rangers acquired have had a chance to acclimate themselves to their new team, it's time to state the obvious: apart from Justin Braun, the Flyer defenseman with 100 games of playoff experience that Chris Drury was able to pry away from Cliff Fletcher for a 4th round pick, all three forwards - Andrew Copp, Frank Vatrano and Tyler Motte - could be here to stay.

As the old saying goes, why rent when you can own? While other GMs in the league for the most part ponied up first and second round draft picks for the privilege of renting the services of players that will be gone next season, Drury set his sights a bit higher. He opted for players that can not only help his team now but, with a little creative math and the shuffling of one or two current players on the roster, can be retained after the playoffs are over.

I've been saying this for months now. The negotiations with Ryan Strome's agent over a contract extension are at the epicenter of all Drury's decision making with respect to the number two center position. In a nutshell, it is untenable for him not to have a Plan B in place in the event Strome decides to walk, which with the signing of Tomas Hertl to an eight-year extension by the San Jose Sharks, is all but a given. There's no way in hell Strome is going to get anywhere close to the $8.1 million salary Hertl will be making next season. Even if the Rangers had the cap space - which they don't - Drury would be a fool to even entertain such a contract.

It's also obvious that the longer these negotiations dragged on, the less likely it was going to be that the two sides would reach an agreement. And given that Drury locked up Igor Shesterkin and Mika Zibanejad before the start of the season, and Adam Fox shortly after, you can draw your own conclusions as to what happened and why. Suffice to say Strome's agent may have overplayed his hand by rejecting a deal that was believed to be around four years at $5.75 million AAV.

But that's water over the dam now. If Strome isn't staying, a replacement must be found. J.T. Miller was never a practical candidate. Yes, at $5.25 million through next season his contract was the most team friendly out there. Assuming the Vancouver Canucks even make him available during the off season, Drury would have to pay a king's ransom to land him. And as I wrote in an earlier piece, Drury would only be kicking the can down the road an additional season. A year from now, he'd be in the same predicament, but without the draft capital or assets needed to get out of it.

As for Mark Scheifele, the Winnipeg Jet comes in at $6.15 thru '24, which gives the Rangers an extra year to play with. But in the end, like Miller, the result would be the same: a parting of significant draft picks and assets with a limited return on investment. For the Rangers to tell their fan base that they endured a four-year playoff hiatus in order to enjoy a two to three year playoff window is a non starter. What Drury needed was a long-term solution that allowed him to protect his assets while still fielding a team that could contend for the Cup now and in the future. And it looks like he may have found it.

Andrew Copp and Frank Vatrano are not Claude Giroux and Rickard Rakell, that should be obvious. But they ain't Bobby Sheehan and Pierre Plante either. And considering what Drury paid to acquire them, it's fair to say he hit it out of the ball park, so to speak. Both players have made significant contributions since their arrival. Copp has a goal and four assists in his first four games as a Ranger, while Vatrano has five goals in his first seven. The new additions also seem to have impacted the team's overall performance, as well. According to Stat Boy Steven, since the trade deadline, the Rangers 5v5 scoring has almost doubled, from 1.87 goals per game to a league-leading 3.6. That cannot be a coincidence.

And here's the best news: While both players are UFAs after the season, both can be re-signed without breaking the bank. Now that the NHL has made it official that the salary cap is going up to $82.5 million next season - an increase of $1 million over this season - that leaves the Rangers with $11.7 million in cap space with 16 players under contract. While not as bad as the Florida Panthers, who have only $4.5 million available with 15 players under contract, it does mean that Drury will have to thread the needle carefully over the summer.

If he can find someone to take Patrik Nemeth's contract off his hands, that would increase the amount Drury has to play with by $2.5 million. And if he can move Filip Chytil, that would free up an additional $2.3 million. Say Copp signs for $5 million and Vatrano for $3 million. That leaves $8.5 million left for Kaapo Kakko ($2.4m?), Motte ($1.5m), Sammy Blais ($1.5m), Zac Jones ($925k) and a backup goalie ($1m). My point is Drury has everything he needs within his own organization to build a contender next season and beyond. How many GMs can say that?

Since taking over as president and general manager of the Rangers, I've been very impressed with Drury. He's been methodical and deliberate in the moves he's made. There's always a rhyme and a reason for everything he does. Indeed, he seems to be taking a page out of Julien BriseBois' playbook. If the Tampa Bay Lightning go on to win their third Stanley Cup in a row this spring, it'll be due in no small part to the job BriseBois has done as GM.

Bottom line, the cupboard is full, the future bright. Trust the process, people. Chris Drury knows what he's doing.


Tuesday, March 22, 2022

Drury Nails His First Trade Deadline



Stephane Matteau and Brian Noonan this wasn't. But then this isn't 1994 and these New York Rangers aren't a couple of players away from winning a Stanley Cup.

But while they may not be Cup contenders just yet, they are a far cry from last year's disappointment. Indeed, this group of players has proven to be one of the most resilient teams in the NHL, and as GM, Chris Drury had a responsibility to do what he could to enhance their prospects in the postseason, while also not mortgaging its future.

The trick was how to thread the needle, especially in what proved to be a seller's market. With visions of J.T. Miller and Patrick Kane dancing in the heads of Rangers fans, and teams like the Florida Panthers overpaying for rentals like Ben Chiarot, Drury bided his time and didn't panic. And for his patience and prudence, he was justly rewarded; he managed to fill not one, but four holes without sacrificing a single high-valued prospect.

Below are the players Drury acquired, all of whom are pending UFAs, what they bring to the table, and what they cost him.

Frank Vatrano, a 28 year-old forward from the Panthers who can play on either wing, brings size, speed and a deceptive shot. He scored 24 goals a few seasons back, but was being under utilized this season. While considered a bottom six player, head coach Gerard Gallant will probably use him on the second line with Ryan Strome and Artemi Panarin until Kaapo Kakko returns sometime in April. Drury was able to pry him away for a fourth round pick in 2022. 

Justin Braun, a 35 year-old defenseman from the Philadelphia Flyers, who on a bad team was still a plus 3. His specialties include shot blocking, hits and clearing the slot. With a hundred playoff games under his belt - most of them for the San Jose Sharks - Gallant will use him on the third pairing with Patrik Nemeth. Since he's a righty, that means Braden Schneider will likely sit, which is a pity. Drury gave up a third round pick in 2023 to get him.

Tyler Motte, a 27 year-old winger from the Vancouver Canucks, has 7 goals this season and is another bottom six player. Gallant will probably use him on the second penalty-kill unit with Barclay Goodrow. With a healthy Kevin Rooney at center and Ryan Reaves at right wing, the Rangers will finally have a fully functional and effective fourth line going into the playoffs. A fourth round pick from 2023 was all it took to land Motte.

Andrew Copp, a 27 year-old center from the Winnipeg Jets. The pièce de résistance for Drury, Copp is a Swiss Army knife who can play center or either wing and has 13 goals and 35 points this season. With the Jets he played with Mark Scheifele, so it's not inconceivable that if Ryan Strome bolts over the summer, Copp could step in and center Panarin and Kakko next season. For now, though, Gallant will probably have him center the third line where his face-off prowess - 54 percent - will come in handy. To get Copp, Drury had to give up Morgan Barron, a fifth round pick in 2023 and two conditional second round picks, one of which becomes a first rounder if the Rangers make it to the Eastern Conference finals.

Considering the pressure Drury was under at the start of the season to get this team into the playoffs, I'd say he got quite a haul. Indeed, the only bone I have to pick here is potentially losing a first round pick for a player who may not even be with the team next year. If Drury can't re-sign Strome, he's going to need that pick to include in a package to secure his replacement. Then again, if the Rangers make it all the way to the conference finals, maybe it was worth it.

Not one of these players are what you would call elite. With Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox, the Rangers have their fair share of elite players; what they don't have are enough depth players. The fact is the third and fourth lines have been embarrassments all season long. Face it, on any other playoff-caliber team Julien Gauthier and Greg McKegg would be in the AHL, and Dryden Hunt would be a healthy scratch. That all three were getting substantial minutes was simply not tenable anymore, and credit Drury for realizing that.

While the prospect of seeing J.T. Miller and Patrick Kane in a Rangers uniform was enticing, acquiring both would've meant gutting the organization's pipeline of talent and draft capital. And given that both players would be UFAs after the '23 season, you'd ostensibly be admitting to your fan base that the window for winning a Stanley Cup is this year and next.

No general manager in his right mind would ever be that reckless. Well, almost no general manager. In the "glory days" when Glen Sather was running the show, he was famous for signing high-priced free agents that turned out to be busts. Remember Wade Redden? Thankfully, Drury takes more after his predecessor Jeff Gorton than Sather.

Bottom line, Drury addressed every need the Rangers had going into the trade deadline. As a result, this team is much deeper and tougher to play against than it was a week ago. When Kakko and Rooney return, they will have one of the most balanced lineups in the NHL, similar to the kind of lineup Gallant had when he was head coach of the Vegas Golden Knights.

Will they win the Cup? I still think the Carolina Hurricanes and the Tampa Bay Lightning are the teams to beat in the East. And the Pittsburgh Penguins definitely got better with the acquisition of Rickard Rakell. But this much I can tell you: I wouldn't want to be the team that has to beat Igor Shesterkin four times in a best of seven series.


Saturday, March 19, 2022

The Rich Get Richer



Some people just have a knack for making it look easy. People like Julien BriseBois, GM of the Tampa Bay Lightning, an organization that has won two consecutive Stanley Cups, and is looking to make it a three-peat.

And they might just pull it off. That's because while his counterparts in south Florida, Colorado, Calgary and New York were all busy acquiring rentals to bolster their post-season prospects ahead of Monday's trade deadline, BriseBois thought big picture and landed a player that can not only help his team win this season but for the next two seasons, as well.

On Friday afternoon, the Lightning sent forwards Boris Katchouk and Taylor Raddysh, along with two number ones to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for forward Brandon Hagel and a fourth rounder. Leaving aside the draft picks, the two players the Blackhawks received have a grand total of 7 goals; Hagel already has 21 with 22 games left in the regular season. Depending on where head coach Jon Cooper decides to play him, it's conceivable Hagel might end up with 30 goals.

This was a heist, pure and simple. Screw the number ones. Two years ago, the Bolts gave up two number ones to New Jersey and San Jose to land Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow respectively and it helped them win back-to-back Stanley Cups. Well this move is Coleman / Barclay on steroids. And best of all, BriseBois didn't add a single cent to the team's salary cap. That's because the two contracts that he sent to Chicago and the one he inherited from them cancel each other out.

That's called genius, people. In one move, BriseBois lands a player with term who can help him now and in the future that he can afford to retain without having to scramble over the summer to cut salary. By comparison, none of the other players who were traded over the last few days are likely to be re-signed by their new teams.

There's a reason why some organizations are successful and some aren't. Julien BriseBois didn't build the Tampa Bay Lightning into the championship caliber team they currently are. That distinction belongs to Steve Yzerman, who as a player helped the Detroit Red Wings win back-to-back Cups in '97 and '98, and who is now in charge of rebuilding that once proud franchise.

But BriseBois has been the magician pulling one rabbit after another out of the hat, retooling this team on the fly. Absent his moves, the Lightning would be no better than the Edmonton Oilers or the Toronto Maple Leafs: teams that excel during the regular season only to fail miserably once the playoffs begin.

If I'm Chris Drury, I start taking notes. His move to acquire forward Frank Vatrano from the Florida Panthers for a fourth round pick was a no brainer. The Panthers needed to dump salary to make room for defenseman Ben Chiarot from the Montreal Canadiens, and the Rangers had more than enough space to accommodate his $2.5 million cap hit. A win for both sides.

But as valuable as he might be, Vatrano is a UFA after the season, and even if he'd be willing to re-sign for the same salary, it's doubtful the Rangers will be able to afford him. That's because they already have $71 million committed next year with only 16 players under contract. That leaves just over $11 million left to fill out the roster. And the lion's share of that will likely go to Ryan Strome or his replacement. Once the Sharks and Tomas Hertl agreed to terms on an eight-year deal worth $8.1 million per, any hope of getting Strome to accept a team-friendly deal to remain on Broadway went out the window. 

Anyway you slice it, Drury will have his hands full trying to field a team that can contend for the Cup while still remaining cap compliant. If he's stuck, he could always ask BriseBois for a few pointers. In the NHL, there's no one better at navigating through the murky waters of the flat cap.

Like I said, genius.