Just How Good Are the Mets?

It was, shall we say, an interesting off season for the New York Mets. Coming off a disappointing 2023 campaign in which they went 75-87, new President and GM David Stearns had the unenviable task of trying to put together a team that could at the very least be competitive in the National League East, while also being cognizant of the fact that millions of loyal fans have been patiently waiting for a championship since 1986.

Regarding the latter, before we go any further, it should be noted that in 2024 the Mets will be paying Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander collectively $55 million for the privilege of not playing for them. So while the angst of the fanbase is understandable, accusing Steve Cohen of being cheap isn't. Seriously, can you imagine the Wilpons footing that kind of bill?

It turns out not signing Ohtani or Yamamoto may prove to be a Godsend. Yamamoto got lit up like a Christmas tree in his first start as a Dodger, and the more we find out about Ohtani's connection to his interpreter, the more I think a shit storm may be brewing in Los Angeles. Call me a cynic, but I think Cohen and the Mets will look back on last summer and thank their lucky stars they didn't sign either of these two players. Frankly, it would serve the Dodgers right if the whole thing blew up in their face.

But while saving a billion dollars over the next ten years is all well and good, to paraphrase a well-known, rhetorical question, What does that have to do with the price of tea in Flushing? If you're a Mets fan all you care about is your team, and right now this team has more holes than a golf course. Beginning with hole number one:

The Starting Rotation. Kodai Senga, the ace, is out until May. Even with him healthy, this staff is thin. Luis Severino, the opening day pitcher, was 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA for the Yankees last season. Tylor Megill went 9-8 with a serviceable 4.70 ERA for the Amazins' last season. Jose Quintana was 3-6 with a 3.57 ERA. Then things get interesting. Apparently the plan is for the starters to get to the 6th inning where the bullpen can take over. Good luck with that. Which brings us to hole number two:

The Bullpen: The return of Edwin Diaz will be a welcomed relief, no pun intended. His loss last season likely cost the Mets a minimum of 10 wins. However, it'll be the middle of this bullpen that determines how many save opportunities Diaz actually gets. Stearns is banking on Adam Ottavino to be the set up man, while Drew Smith and newcomer Jake Diekman will do most of the heavy lifting in the 6th and 7th innings. At best, this is a work in progress.

The Batting Order: The signing of J.D. Martinez to hit DH was huge. His 33 home runs and 103 runs batted in will add depth to the Mets lineup, as well as give Pete Alonso - 46 HRs and 118 RBIs - some badly-needed protection. The slugger batted a career-low .217. With Martinez batting behind him, the Polar Bear might be a little more selective at the plate. Francisco Lindor remains the team's best overall hitter and infielder, while Brandon Nimmo is its best and most dependable outfielder. After that, questions remain. Can Starling Marte come back? Can Harrison Bader stay healthy? Is Francisco Alvarez for real or just a flash in last season's pan? Can Jeff McNeill rebound from a disappointing '23? Is Brett Baty the next David Wright or the next Wayne Garrett?

The Bench: Let's not push it, OK?

The Manager: Perhaps the best thing Carlos Mendoza has going for him is that the expectations for this team are fairly low. Unlike his predecessor Buck Showlater, who was brought in to win a title, if the Mets are competitive, that should suffice.

Prediction: The return of Diaz and the addition of Martinez will keep the Mets above .500. Who knows, they could even challenge for one of the Wild Cards. But if I were a betting man, I'd say they fall short of a postseason berth. Record: 83-79, 4th place in the NL East.

Why the Rangers Shouldn't Take Their Foot Off the Gas Pedal

As the regular season begins to wind down, the New York Rangers are currently leading the Metropolitan Division by one point over the Carolina Hurricanes. They are also in first place in the Eastern Conference and are tied with the Vancouver Canucks for the NHL lead. By any and all accounts this has been the best Rangers team to take the ice since that Presidents' Trophy winner of 2014-15.

But while this team continues to amaze even its staunchest critics, there are a growing number of fans who would prefer that they finish in second behind the Hurricanes, and you'll never guess what their reason is.

You see it has to do with which team the Rangers would face in the playoffs. If the Rangers finish first in the Metro, but second overall in the East, their opponent would be the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, if they were to finish in second, they would face either the Philadelphia Flyers or the surging Washington Capitals. The prevailing sentiment among this group is that if you're the Rangers, you'd much rather play the Flyers or the Caps than the Lightning.

There are three flaws in this thinking. I'll list them in order.

One: The Lightning aren't nearly as good as some are making them out to be. Yes, they've been hot of late, but since their last Cup in '21, they have turned over half their roster. The Rangers won the first two games of the season series 5-1 and 3-1, and were 28 minutes away from a series sweep. So thorough was their domination that halfway through the second period of game three, the Bolts had managed a paltry eight shots on goal. If that's your idea of a tough matchup, I shudder to think what an easy one would look like.

Two: Anyone who's seen this Rangers team play over the last few seasons knows all too well that they have a nasty habit of playing to the level of their opponent. For instance, some of the best games they've played this season have come against teams like the Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars and Hurricanes. However, they've also had some of their worst games against teams like the San Jose Sharks and Columbus Blue Jackets. Now I'm not suggesting that the Flyers are as bad as the Sharks or the Jackets; far from it. But the idea that somehow the Blueshirts are just going to breeze by Philly is absurd. This is a John Tortorella-coached team. They will be a tough out, no matter who they play.

Three: Apparently, these fans must've been in a coma over the last twelve months, because this was the same stupidity we heard out of most of the players last season. It doesn't matter where we finish in the standings, they said, we can flip the switch come playoff time. How'd that work out? Oh, yeah, not so well. After going up 2-0 over the New Jersey Devils, the Rangers dropped four of the last five games and were unceremoniously bounced from the postseason. Arguably the most talented roster in decades never made it out of the first round. The fact is there is no switch. You're either ready for the playoffs or you're not. This is the message Peter Laviolette has tried to instill on his players from the start of training camp, and from what we've seen so far this season, that message has gotten through.

Look, are there inherent risks in going all out to finish in first place? Of course there are. But this is hockey, not baseball. You can get injured just as easily in second gear as you can in fifth. For me, the greater risk is taking your foot off the gas pedal because, as we've seen, there's no guarantee you can get the engine back up to speed.

Besides, if the Rangers finish first overall, their first-round opponent would be the last Wild Card team. That would be either the Detroit Red Wings or the aforementioned Flyers or Caps. They would also have home ice advantage throughout the playoffs. What's better than that?

Yes, there's the matter of the Presidents' Trophy curse. Turns out it's a real thing. In the salary cap era, only two winners of the trophy have gone on to win the Stanley Cup: the '08 Red Wings and the '13 Chicago Blackhawks. That's two out of a possible eighteen. Not a very good showing. And it gets even worse when you consider that the '23 Bruins and the '19 Lightning - both of whom had the best won-loss records since those legendary Montreal Canadiens teams of the 1970s - were eliminated in the first round.

But fear of a curse is no excuse for slacking off. This team is clicking on all cylinders. It would be the height of irresponsibility to throttle back now.

As the motto says, No Quit in New York!

Final Thoughts on Saquon Barkley

Let's be honest: the moment the New York Giants decided they weren't going to franchise tag Saquon Barkley, you pretty much knew his days as a Giant were numbered. If Joe Schoen didn't think he was worth $11.95 million - the limit the NFL allows for a running back on a franchise tag in 2024 - that was his way of saying "we're done here."

I don't begrudge Barkley from signing elsewhere; the man has a right to get paid what he thinks he's worth. Though I have to wonder if choosing the Philadelphia Eagles was his way of saying to Schoen, "Fuck you, too."

And I also think it's rather juvenile of some - not all - Giants fans to say things like "You're dead to me." Knock it off. The guy left the team; he didn't burn the flag or something. This is a business. Players leave one team for another all the time. If teams can do it, why can't players?

What I am going to take issue with is this notion that Barkley never got the multi-year offer from the Giants he was looking for. The people who are spreading that bullshit, especially on ESPN, need to stop it immediately. The fact is, Barkley received a very fair and lucrative contract offer from the Giants in January of 2023. It was a three-year deal for $36 million, with $22 million guaranteed. Barkley, his agent, or both turned it down. Hence, the Giants slapped the franchise tag on him so they wouldn't lose him in free agency.

Given that the Eagles signed Barkley to a three-year $37.7 million contract with $26 million guaranteed, basically the all-pro running back travelled 95 miles down the Jersey Turnpike for a lousy $1.7 million over three years and an additional $4 million in guaranteed money. If you're going to skewer Schoen for how he handled this situation, it's more than fair to hold Barkley to the same standard. Why didn't he sign the contract offer in '23? Had he done so, he'd be entering year two of that contract.

Unless, of course, Barkley wasn't exactly sure he wanted to stay a Giant and was keeping his options open. Think about it. A very successful, and equally surprising, 2022 season, which resulted in a playoff berth and a playoff win; the first since 2011. Everything that could've gone their way, did. We often hear how front offices have a bead on whether their teams overachieved or not, and what that means for their long-term strategy. 

Why can't players do the same thing? It's unfathomable to me that a man as savvy as Barkley, who insisted he wanted to retire a Giant, would pass up an opportunity to sign a three-year extension, knowing full well it would force the Giants hand. Unless that was his plan all along. Reject the offer, sign the franchise tag, see what kind of season the Giants had in '23, and if things fell apart, which they did, jump ship.

Sound too conspiratorial for you? Yeah, me too. But it's better than the alternative, which is that a very talented running back got some very bad advice from an inept agent, and that eventually led to him leaving the team that drafted him.

Sometimes the simplest answers are the ones right under our noses.

Chris Drury's LTIR Nightmare

It's only been three games but already Jack Roslovic and Alex Wennberg have made an impression on their new teammates. Roslovic, playing right wing on the Zibanejad line, almost scored a goal in his first game and helped set up goals in his next two: one against the New Jersey Devils; the other against the Carolina Hurricanes. Wennberg with an assist in his first game, has solidified a third line that has badly needed a center to replace the injured Filip Chytil.

The analytics for both lines are considerably better than they were a week ago. Indeed, over the last three games the Rangers top three lines at 5v5 are above 50% GF percentage. That means they are on the ice for more goals for than against at 5v5. It is no coincidence that Chris Drury's trade deadline acquisitions have had a lot to do with this recent uptick. For the first time since the start of the season, the Rangers roster is finally set.

But while the playoffs are still a month away, Drury has a dilemma on his hands that he will have to deal with over the summer. That's because he has a huge decision to make regarding Chytil's status. The center went down with what is believed to be his third concussion of his career in a game against the Hurricanes on November 2 and has been out of the lineup ever since. A month ago he attempted a comeback and while practicing at Madison Square Garden collapsed and had to be helped off the ice. It was at that time that the Rangers decided to shut him down and keep him on LTIR for good.

And while his $4.43 million cap hit was put to good use, along with that of Blake Wheeler's $800k cap hit, no one knows for certain what will happen with Chytil next season. As I see it, there are three possible outcomes here.

1. Chytil, upon being told he will likely never fully recover, decides to retire. In that event, he remains on LTIR, allowing the Rangers to use his cap hit towards other players.

2. Chytil, upon being told he will likely never fully recover, decides not to retire, but instead chooses to collect his full salary, which he is entitled to under the CBA. In that event, he remains on LTIR, allowing the Rangers to use his cap hit towards other players.

Both of these outcomes would give the Rangers plenty of cap space to re-sign Wennberg if they want, and with the salary cap going up by $4million to $87.5 million next season, that should be enough cap space to re-sign Kaapo Kakko, Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider. Brendon Othmann could potentially replace Roslovic on the top line. Problem solved.

But then there's a third outcome that could prove nightmarish for Drury.

3. Chytil is told he will likely never fully recover but insists on trying a comeback anyway. He somehow gets medical clearance to resume skating, and after a few weeks is medically cleared to rejoin the team. The problem for Drury is that the NHL takes a dim view of teams that hide players on LTIR for the purpose of getting cap relief, unless of course you're the Vegas Golden Knights or the Tampa Bay Lightning.

If Drury re-signs Wennberg to a four year deal with, say, a $4.5m AAV, he would have to clear out enough salary to offset Chytil's cap hit before activating him. Knowing how the league is run, Drury might as well hang a sign around his neck that reads, "Please screw me." Because that's exactly what any competing GM will do. Given how well regarded the Rangers are around the league (sarcasm), the phone calls should go something like this: "Hi, Chris, how you doin'? So Chytil is ready to come back and you need someone to take him off your hands for you? Gee, I'm sorry but I'm not sure I could use him. Of course for a couple of first round picks, I might have some use for him."

Now I'm not saying that every GM will try to do that to Drury; some may actually be sympathetic to his plight and try to help him out. But this much is certain: the longer he waits to move Chytil's contract, the harder it's going to be to do so.

But why move him? After all, if Chytil is medically cleared to play, why wouldn't he want him on the roster, especially after the season he had last year? The reason should be obvious enough. The hit Chytil took from Jesper Fast in the second period of that Hurricanes game was not particularly hard. It's the sort of hit hockey players take all the time. In fact, when it happened, it looked as though Fast got the worst of it. Knowing how the game is played, it is only a matter of time before Chytil gets hit like that again, and when that happens, he will be right back on LTIR.

Drury would be foolish to tie his team's fortunes to the health of a player whose one concussion away from forced retirement. Even if Drury believes that the odds of Chytil making a successful comeback are slim to none, his best recourse is still to move him over the summer. Believe it or not, there is precedent for just such a move. Three years ago, Lightning GM Julian BriseBois was up against the cap, so he traded Tyler Johnson and a second round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for the contract of Brent Seabrook. Johnson's cap hit was $5m and Seabrook's was $6.875m. Seabrook was on LTIR due to an injury that eventually forced him into retirement.

Do the math. $5million plus $6.875million equals $11.875million. If you want to know why BriseBois is considered a genius when it comes to navigating the salary cap, this is why. There isn't a loophole the man doesn't know about or can't exploit. Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon obviously took notes as evidenced by his "maneuvers" at this year's trade deadline.

But wouldn't it make more sense, given the Seabrook example, for Drury to keep Chytil? Under normal circumstances it might. But there's another complication. While Chytil is on LTIR, the Rangers do not accrue cap space. Going into the season, the Rangers had $675k in cap space. With the normal accrual process, Drury would've had roughly $3m by the trade deadline to go shopping. The rash of injuries put the kibosh on that. In effect, all Drury had to work with were the contracts of Chytil and Wheeler which came out to $5.2 million. And before you say the obvious: Isn't $5.2m larger than $3m? Keep in mind, Drury, I'm sure, was counting on a healthy Chytil and Wheeler, along with that $3m when the season started. All the $5.2 million did was allow him to find replacements for the wounded.

The bottom line is this: teams can borrow against players on LTIR, but they can't double dip. It's either or. That's why Drury must trade Chytil's contract. Keeping him only hamstrings the organization and prevents him from doing his job, which is to make this team deeper and stronger.

Look, what happened to Filip Chytil is truly tragic. A promising, young career maybe over at 24. But it would be infinitely more tragic for the Rangers to give in to sentiment. At the end of the day, this is still a business, and Chris Drury, as the President and GM of this franchise, has an obligation, first and foremost, to that franchise.

For Drury, Less is More

When it comes to trade deadlines, there are two types of teams: sellers and buyers. Sellers are teams that know their season is over and are looking to see what they can get for their assets. Buyers are teams that believe they have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup and are looking for players who can help them in their quest.

Suffice to say, the New York Rangers fall into the latter type. For the third straight season, President and General Manger Chris Drury has used the trade deadline to bolster his team's chances in the postseason. In 2022, Drury acquired Frank Vatrano, Justin Braun, Tyler Motte and Andrew Copp. All four players were instrumental in the Blueshirts advancing to the Eastern Conference finals where, unfortunately, they were eliminated by the Tampa Bay Lightning, who were looking for their third consecutive Cup. 

In 2023. Drury went out and landed Vladimir Tarasenko, Niko Mikkola, Motte (again) and Patrick Kane. But unlike the previous season, the imports Drury brought in were, save for maybe Motte and Mikkola, not complimentary pieces; they were stars in their own right who, far from helping an already good team become better, wound up upsetting the chemistry in the locker room. The power play, which had been a staple of the team for the last two seasons, looked disorganized, as head coach Gerard Gallant struggled to find just the right combination. The whole thing unravelled against the New Jersey Devils in the opening round of the playoffs.

By no means were the Rangers the only organization to fall victim to the naive belief that you can never have enough stars. The Boston Bruins apparently weren't satisfied with running away with the Presidents' Trophy, so they brought in the proverbial kitchen sink at the deadline. And just like the Rangers, they were dispatched early at the hands of a Florida Panthers team that needed a loss by the Pittsburgh Penguins just to qualify for the playoffs. How's that for a kick in the teeth?

I'll say this for Drury: he's not one to make the same mistake twice. This time around, he refused to be seduced by all the shiny objects out there. The biggest and shiniest object was Jake Guentzel, a winger who for the last eight seasons has played alongside one of the best centers of this generation: Sidney Crosby. With just over a day to go before the 3 P.M. March 8 deadline, the Penguins let it be known that they were shopping the all-star forward.

Supposedly, four teams were vying for his services; the Vancouver Canucks, the Vegas Golden Knights, the Carolina Hurricanes and the Rangers. As Thursday afternoon turned into Thursday evening, only two teams remained in the hunt: the Hurricanes and the Rangers. The Penguins were looking for a substantial return for Guentzel, one that Drury was not prepared to pay, so Guentzel went to Carolina.

Predictably, Rangers Twitter went apoplectic. How could Drury screw this up? Guentzel was practically ours. Never mind that the price Pittsburgh was looking to extract - a number one draft pick, Kaapo Kakko and two top-tier prospects - would've gutted the organization. Never mind that he's a rental that Drury might not be able to re-sign over the summer. All that mattered was the big splash.

Thankfully, Drury held his ground. Don't get me wrong: Guentzel would've looked nice in a Rangers uniform. His resume speaks for itself. But he's a left winger on a team that badly needed a right winger. There's no guarantee he'd be able to make the switch. Plus, he's played with Crosby his entire career. While Mika Zibanejad is hardly chopped liver, he's no Crosby. The whole thing had the makings of Kane 2.0.

Undaunted, Drury turned his sights elsewhere. He had already acquired Alex Wennberg from the Seattle Kraken on Wednesday. Wennberg is a solid two-way player who will solidify a third line that has badly needed a center ever since Filip Chytil went down with a season-ending third concussion in November. He then acquired defenseman Chad Ruhwedel from the Penguins to add depth to the D core. All that was left was to get his right winger.

As the clock ticked closer and closer to 3, it was beginning to look like Drury was going to strike out. The Anaheim Ducks were looking for a first rounder for Vatrano, who is having a career year. The St. Louis Blues were looking for two number ones and a prospect for Pavel Buchnevich. Suffice to say, Drury balked at both "proposals."

Finally, with about 10 minutes to go, Drury found his man. Jack Roslovic of the Columbus Blue Jackets is listed as a center, but he was playing right wing on the Jackets top line with Boone Jenner and Johnny Gaudreau, and playing it quite well. Over his last 12 games, he has 13 points: 4 goals and 9 assists. His speed is a commodity this team can certainly use, and while Peter Laviolette will decide where he best fits in, all indications are that he will start on the Rangers top line.

Three holes to fill, three holes filled, and Drury didn't have to part with Kakko, or any of his number one picks or top prospects. Wennberg cost him a second-rounder and a fourth-rounder obtained from the Dallas Stars in the Nils Lundkvist deal; Ruhwedel a 2027 fourth rounder; and Roslovic a '26 conditional fourth that becomes a third if the Rangers make it to the conference finals. And as if that wasn't enough, Drury got both Wennberg and Roslovic with 50 percent salary retention. The man is methodical if nothing else.

No one can predict what impact these players will have on their new team. But given that the Rangers have been the lead dog in the Metropolitan Division pretty much the entire season, the expectation is that they can only help solidify their position. The second place Hurricanes also improved themselves and are only two points behind depending on what the Blueshirts do tonight against the Blues. The likelihood is that one of these two teams will meet either the Bruins or the Panthers in the ECF for the right to go to the Cup finals.

Did Drury nail this deadline? We'll know soon enough. But at least he didn't blow it like he did last year. And that's progress.

It's Time We Talked About Zibanejad

From October through December of this season, the New York Rangers had the number one power play in the NHL at 30.9%. Since then, they have the 6th worst power play at 16.0%. Among playoff teams, only the Philadelphia Flyers (15.7%) and the Vegas Golden Knights (13.8%) are worse.

For a team that isn't exactly known for its 5v5 play, that's a non-starter. Put succinctly, the Rangers have no shot at a deep run in the playoffs if they can't score with the man advantage. So what happened? Why has one of the most potent power plays in the league gone ice cold over the last two months?

Last season, Mika Zibanejad scored 39 goals; 20 of them coming on the power play. He was the team leader in both categories. The year before that he had 29 goals and 15 power play tallies. Only Chris Kreider - 52 and 26 respectively - had more. This season, Zibanejad has struggled both at even strength and with the man advantage. He has only 19 goals, 9 on the power play.

With all the talk about Zibanejad's lack of production at even strength - his last 5v5 goal came against the Buffalo Sabres at the Garden on December 23 - it's his lack of production on the power play that has been the biggest mystery. His signature one-timer from the left face off circle has been off. When it isn't being blocked, it's missing the net altogether. And because the Rangers have become so dependent on that one-timer, when it doesn't connect, the power play struggles. In short, the Rangers don't have a Plan B when their Plan A doesn't work.

Head coach Peter Laviolette has been patient to a fault. His reluctance to replace Zibanejad on the first power play unit has only made a bad situation worse. And while no one can fault him for having faith in his players, especially with the team going 10-1 in February, that misplaced loyalty could prove costly in March, where the Rangers play 10 games against playoff caliber teams. One of those teams - the Toronto Maple Leafs - beat them 4-3 in a shoot out on Saturday. The Rangers went 0-3 on the power play against one of the worst penalty kill teams in the league. Only a goal by Vincent Trocheck with 1:07 left and the goalie pulled allowed the Blueshirts to come away with a point.

They are not going to be so lucky against the likes of the Florida Panthers - who they play twice - the Carolina Hurricanes, the Boston Bruins, the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Winnipeg Jets, the Flyers or the Colorado Avalanche. With the exception of the Flyers, every one of those teams are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. If the Rangers can't get their power play going, their hopes of holding onto first place in the Metropolitan division, not to mention their Cup aspirations, will go up in smoke.

It is time for Laviolette to show some tough love; it is time for him to hold one of the leaders of this team accountable. More importantly, it's time for him to reward a player who has done everything the coaching staff has asked of him. In his fourth season in the NHL, Alexis Lafreniere is finally coming into his own. He had one of his best games of the season in Toronto with a goal and two assists. His 16 even-strength goals are 3rd on the team, and his two power play goals lead all players not on the first unit. If anyone deserves a promotion, it is him.

Swapping Zibanejad for Lafreniere makes sense. He's already playing with Trocheck and Artemi Panarin, so the three are familiar with each other. And Laviolette would be sending a very important and powerful message to his players: the team comes first. His predecessor Gerard Gallant sometimes had a problem with that, and the result was an early exit last Spring. If Laviolette wishes to avoid a repeat performance, he needs to act now before it's too late.

No one knows when, or if, Zibanejad will snap out of his funk. His resume suggests he will. But let's be honest: if he doesn't come around, if that one-timer of his continues to misfire, Chris Drury can resurrect the spirit of Guy Lafleur at the trade deadline; it won't make a difference. As great a season as Panarin is having, he can't will this team to a Cup all by himself. He needs help.

In the end, Number 93 has got to hold up his end.