Why Cohen Must Lock Up Alonso

Over their 62 year history, the New York Mets have had their fair share of home run hitters. Darryl Strawberry (252), David Wright (242) and Mike Piazza (220) lead the pack. Over a 16-year career that began with the L.A. Dodgers, Piazza had a grand total of 427 homers. Carlos Beltran, who's 7th on the team list with 149, smacked 435 in his career.

Pete Alonso has a chance to eclipse them all. In just five seasons as a Met - one of which was limited to 57 games due to Covid-19 - the Polar Bear, as he is affectionally referred to by the Flushing Faithful, has hit 181 dingers. According to Baseball Reference, in a pro-rated 162-game schedule, Alonso is averaging 46 HRs and 119 RBIs. To put that in perspective, Aaron Judge, who led the major leagues with 62 home runs last season, is averaging 49 HRs and 111 RBIs.

Now before everyone has a cow, I am not suggesting that Alonso is Judge. Judge is a lifetime .284 hitter, while Alonso is a lifetime .255 hitter. But based on what each brings to their respective teams, a case can be made that Alonso is just as valuable to the Mets as Judge is to the Yankees. When his career is over, Alonso could well wind up with 700 or more home runs. And that's Babe Ruth territory, folks, cow or no cow.

That is why it is imperative Steve Cohen lock up his slugging first baseman as soon as possible. Reports that the Mets were quietly taking feelers on Alonso prior to the trade deadline is an indication that they are skeptical they can re-sign him before he hits free agency after the 2024 season. If that is true then Mets fans have a right to be concerned. Because if Cohen was willing to fork over $315 million to Carlos Correa - who at present is hitting .227 with a paltry 14 home runs for the Minnesota Twins - then how in God's name has he not opened up his check book for a home-grown talent who over the last five years has hit more home runs than any other player in the majors, including Judge?

It is unfathomable that someone as wealthy and as savvy as Cohen could have allowed this matter to fester as long as it has, especially given some of the contracts he has dolled out. Whatever else you may think of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, neither were as valuable to this team as Alonso has been since his arrival in 2019. Letting him walk - or worse trading him - would be the dumbest thing this franchise has done, and that includes the infamous Seaver trade in 1977. By the time M. Donald Grant sent Tom Terrific packing to the Cincinnati Reds, the Mets were already a last-place team going nowhere. Cohen is on record as saying he wants to win not one, but multiple World Series. Having a player on the roster who averages 46 home runs a season would make that a whole lot easier. 

Maybe all this is just posturing on Cohen's part. Maybe the feelers he was getting for Alonso was his way of gauging how big a contract he would have to come to the table with. Or maybe he still has his sights set on landing Shohei Ohtani over the winter. Assuming he can convince the Angels phenom to move to the east coast, the asking price for his services will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $600 to $700 million over 10 years. In the unlikely event he becomes a Met in '24, Alonso's days in Flushing are numbered. Not even Cohen would pony up that much money on two players.

But let's just say for the sake of argument that Ohtani prefers to stay on the west coast. The Dodgers or the San Francisco Giants would be the logical destinations. How either of them make it work financially is their own concern. But more importantly, by freeing up the $60 to $70 million Ohtani would command annually, Cohen would have the resources necessary to not only re-sign Alonso, but rebuild the starting rotation and bullpen. As much as I'd like to see Ohtani in a Mets uniform, I'd much rather see another World Series in my lifetime.

If I were a betting man, I'd lay odds Cohen feels the same way. That's why in the end, I believe he and Alonso's agent will come to an agreement on a long-term deal that keeps the Polar Bear in Flushing for the duration of his career. Think $325 - $350 million over 9 years.

Yes, that's a ton of money. But it's worth it, given what Alonso brings to the table.

Reality Hits Home in Flushing

In February of 2018, then New York Rangers' GM Jeff Gorton sent out a letter to the fanbase informing them that the current core had gone as far as it could go and that the team was going to be sellers at the trade deadline. True to his word, the Blueshirts had a selloff that would make Charlie Finley proud.

But while Gorton may have turned over the roster, he didn't tear it down all the way to the wall studs and floor joist the way some GMs do. He kept some players around like Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Ryan Strome, Pavel Buchnevich, and Henrik Lundqvist. The following year he traded for Jacob Trouba and Adam Fox, and in the offseason he signed Artemi Planarian. In short, by opting to do a retool instead of a classic rebuild, Gorton shortened the period of time the Rangers missed the playoffs by as much as two years.

GM Billy Eppler did not send a letter to the fanbase indicating the Mets were going to be sellers at this year's trade deadline. He didn't need to. It was obvious to all but the most incurable optimists that the Amazins were not a playoff team, especially after a brutal 7-19 June. The only question was how big of a selloff were we going to see?

Like Gorton five years earlier, Eppler did not gut the team. Indeed, of the five players the Mets shipped out, three were free agents after this season, one was a free agent after '24 and another had an option for '25. If anything, the Mets are in better shape now than the Rangers were after their selloff in '18.

Not that you'd be able to convince the Flushing Faithful of that. To listen to some of them, you'd think Eppler broke up the 1927 Yankees. Whatever your feelings about Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Robertson, Mark Canha and Tommy Pham, they were not Waite Hoyt, Herb Pennock, Wilcy Moore, Tony Lazzeri and Bob Meusel. Anymore than Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. 

Far from being a contender, the Mets were a flawed team the moment they left Port St. Lucie in March. Their pitching was inconsistent, as was their hitting and defense. At no point during the season did they give any indication they were capable of going on a sustained run. Just the opposite, in fact. Games they found a way to win last year, they lost this year. The resiliency that defined them all throughout 2022, alluded them in '23.

Scherzer, in particular, was never the same pitcher after his oblique injury last year. He was hit hard down the stretch, including a late-season game against the Braves and a game one shellacking against the Padres in the postseason, where he gave up four homers and seven earned runs. This year in 100 innings pitched he's given up 23 home runs, tied for 7th most in the majors. And what does it say about this team when the most consistent hitter in the lineup -  Pham - was brought in to provide depth.

All Eppler did by acknowledging the painful truth was cut his losses. His deadline moves restocked a badly depleted pipeline with some top-level prospects, two of which could conceivably make the team as early as next season. In less than a week, he transformed one of the thinest farm systems in major league baseball into one of the deepest. I've been a critic of Eppler since his arrival from Anaheim two years ago. Suffice to say, he's converted me.

But while Eppler deserves a lot of credit, it was Steve Cohen's checkbook that made it possible for the Mets to wind up with the likes of Luisangel Acuña, Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford. All tolled, Cohen swallowed some $88 million in salary to facilitate the Scherzer and Verlander trades. To paraphrase a line out of the Mel Brooks movie History of the World, Part One, "It's good to be rich."

And it is that very checkbook that makes me think 2024 won't be a lost season for the Mets, regardless of what Eppler may or may not have said to Scherzer. Somehow I can't imagine someone as competitive as Cohen not being active in the free agent market. Yes, it's unlikely that Shohei Ohtani will want to move all the way to the east coast, but that doesn't mean that there won't be other pitchers and / or hitters out there that Cohen will be able to entice with his millions. The allure of playing in New York does have its appeal.

The fact is, pitching aside, the Mets still have a formidable lineup, capable of scoring runs. It is not inconceivable that Alonso, Lindor and Francisco Alvarez could all finish with 30 or more home runs this year. With the return of a healthy Edwin Diaz and a revamped starting rotation, this team could contend for a wild card in 2024. This isn't the NFL or NHL where rebuilds can take years. If Eppler and Cohen play their cards right, Mets fans might have something to cheer about by '25.

The bottom line is Eppler and Cohen did what they had to do. There was no other option. Sometimes, in order to take two steps forward, you have to take one step back.