Friday, April 26, 2024

Joe Schoen Doesn't Pull a Gettleman




Going into the 2019 NFL Draft, New York Giants GM Dave Gettleman was looking for a successor to Eli Manning. The previous year, he used the number one overall pick to draft Saquon Barkley. Landing a franchise running back and a franchise quarterback in consecutive drafts would've been quite the feather in Gettleman's cap.

Unfortunately for Gettleman, the quarterback he wanted - Justin Herbert - decided to stay one more year at Oregon. So instead of waiting until 2020 to get his man, Gettleman took Daniel Jones with the 6th pick in the 2019 Draft. To say that pick was a reach would be putting it mildly. Every single draft board had Jones as a late first or early second-rounder at best. Compounding the issue was the fact that the Giants had two first round picks that year - 6 and 17 - meaning they could've taken linebacker Josh Allen with the 6th pick and still had Jones at 17.

While Jones has struggled to deliver on his promise, Allen has become one of the NFL's best edge rushers. Last season he recorded 17.5 sacks. And Herbert, who was drafted by the L.A. Chargers the following year - ironically at 6 - is one of the best signal callers in the league.

Credit Joe Schoen this much: the man takes good notes. Going into this year’s NFL Draft, the Giants once again had the 6th overall pick. J.J. McCarthy of Michigan was sitting there just waiting to be snatched up. His former coach, Jim Harbaugh, raved about him, calling him the best quarterback in the Draft.

But Schoen wasn't biting. In fact, he tried to move up to number 3 to get Drake Maye, whom he believed to be a much better QB, but the New England Patriots were not interested in trading down. So instead of reaching like his predecessor did five years ago, he took the best available player on the board.

Malik Nabers is unquestionably the most dynamic and explosive wide receiver in this year's draft class. The Giants haven’t had a player with this much talent at that position since Odell Beckham, Jr. With the departure of Barkley to the Philadelphia Eagles during the offseason, Nabers instantly becomes this team's number one offensive weapon. Whatever else you might say about how bad things went for the Giants last season, the front office had itself a pretty good night last night.

True, the Giants are still stuck with Jones for at least another season. With the contract he signed last year, there's no way in hell they can cut him; the dead cap hit alone would be $69.3 million. So, like it or not, Danny Dimes will get one more shot to prove he's a franchise quarterback. But this time he'll have an elite receiver to throw the ball to.

As for Schoen, his work is not done. He still needs to find a replacement for Xavier McKinney, who bolted for the Green Bay Packers over the winter. Then there's the offensive line, which continues to need help. In other words, there's plenty of holes still left to fill for Joe.

So far, I'd give him an A for the first day of the draft; overall, an A minus for his tenure as general manger. And that's more than I can say for the guy he replaced.



Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Two Close for Comfort



Two up, two down, two to go. 

Seems like I wrote those words before. Know what? I did. Last year, in fact, after the New York Rangers took a 2-0 lead over the New Jersey Devils in their best of seven series. And then the roof fell in as the Blueshirts dropped four of the last five games. Season over and out.

If you're a fan of this team, you can be forgiven for experiencing a sense of déjà vu. Because, quite frankly, we've seen this movie before, and it never ends well. 

Now, before I go any further, one thing needs be cleared up: the Washington Capitals are NOT the Devils. New Jersey was one of the best teams in the NHL last season; the Caps barely qualified for the postseason and had one of the worst regular-season goal differentials for a team qualifying for the playoffs in league history.

Which makes last night's 4-3 win at the Garden something to be concerned about. Yes, the Rangers defended their home ice; and, yes, the Capitals needed to come out with a much better effort than they showed in game one. But no one who objectively watched that game could come away thinking the Rangers dominated play. Apart from stretches in the first and second periods, the Caps more than held their own with the Presidents' Trophy winners. New York was pinned in its own zone for the last three minutes of the third period, desperately clinging to a one-goal lead that had been a two-goal lead before the home team stupidly took a too-many men on the ice penalty that Washington cashed in on. Overall, the Caps went 2-5 with the man advantage after going 0-4 in game one. As I wrote in my playoff preview, since the All-Star Break, Washington has the number one power play in the league at 28.9 percent. It would behoove the Rangers to do their best to stay out of the penalty box the rest of this series.

Look, do I think history will repeat itself? No, I don't. The Capitals simply don't have the talent to keep up with a Rangers team that is clearly deeper and more skilled. Through two games, eight different Rangers have scored a goal, including the big guns: Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider.

And to be fair, when you look at how the other first-round matchups are going, it's not like any team, save for one, has a stranglehold over its opponent. In fact, the Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars and Boston Bruins have all lost the home ice advantage in their respective series. It wouldn't surprise me if at least one of those teams wound up getting booted.

My concern isn't with this round, it's with the next. Because if a team like the Caps can make the Rangers work that hard, just imagine what the Carolina Hurricanes are going to do to them. Did you see how they handled the Islanders the other night in Raleigh? The Canes made the Isles look like an AHL team, outshooting them 17-1 in the 3rd period. Between the two teams, it's Carolina that has a better shot of sweeping its opponent than the Rangers. If the Blueshirts believe they're going to take four out of seven from that team playing like they did against the Caps, they have another thing coming.

Thirty years ago, another Rangers team made quick work of a Capitals team that was a huge underdog. That team went on to win the Stanley Cup. Will this Rangers team follow in that team's footsteps?

Only time will tell.


Saturday, April 20, 2024

Knicks Playoff Preview (Round One)


Face it: when Julius Randle went down with an injury against the Miami Heat at the Garden on January 27 - followed a couple of games later by OG Anunoby - things didn't look too good for the New York Knicks. After an incredible January in which they went 14-2, the Knicks came crashing back down to Earth in February, going 4-8. On February 29, their record stood at 35-25. They were in danger of falling out of the top six in the Eastern Conference. A once promising season was slipping away.

But this Knicks team refused to die. They went 9-5 in March without Randle and without OG for all but two games. Then with a healthy OG back in the lineup in April, they won the last five games of the regular season to finish with their first 50 win season since 2013. They not only avoided the Play-In round, they clinched the number two seed in the Eastern Conference. 

Tell me you saw that coming. I sure as shit didn't.

And now these very same Knicks, the ones nobody gave an ice cube's chance in hell of being in this position, get to make believers out of none other than the Philadelphia 76ers, who beat the Heat in the Play-In to clinch the 7th seed. The two teams begin a best of seven series at the Garden Saturday night.

The are three things the Knicks have to do in order to move on to the next round:

1. Contain Joel Embiid. Against the Heat, Embiid looked slow. It was clear he was still favoring his surgically repaired knee. The Knicks need to make him work for every shot and rebound he gets. Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein need to stay on him like white on rice. If they don't; if Embiid is allowed to roam at will, this will be a very short series the other way. Even at 80 percent, he's still one of the best players in the league.

2. Jalen Brunson must score. The Sixers will double team Brunson every time he touches the ball just like the Lakers did in the 4th quarter of that February game at the Garden. It will be up to his teammates to make sure they set enough screens to free him up. Like Embiid, Brunson is capable of dominating a series. He needs to score at least 30 points per game for the Knicks to have a shot.

3. The bench needs to contribute. And by contribute, I mean more than a measly 10 points per game. Between Bojan Bogdanovic, Precious Achiuwa, Robinson and Deuce McBride, the bench has to score at least 20 points per game. They also have to play more than a few minutes. Tom Thibodeau can't continue to ride Brunson and Josh Hart to the tune of 40 plus minutes per game. Philly will wipe the court with them if that happens.

I like the Knicks chances here. They allowed the second fewest points per game during the regular season at 108.2. And they are 20-3 in games in which Anunoby has played. It won't be easy. Losing Randle for the season will eventually catch up with them, but not in this series. Knicks in six.

Here's how I expect the rest of the first round matchups to go.

Eastern Conference:

Boston over Miami in five: Without Jimmy Butler, the Heat don't have a chance. What a shame.

Indiana over Milwaukee in six: Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks would've had a tough time time dealing with the Pacers transition game. If he misses more than two games, this could be a sweep.

Orlando over Cleveland in six: Sorry, but I just don't get all the hoopla over the Cavs. The Knicks took them out in five last year with a hobbled Randle. If anything, I'm being generous by giving them two wins.

Western Conference:

Oklahoma City over New Orleans in six: Losing Zion Williamson in the Play-In pretty much killed any chance the Pelicans had of winning this series.

Denver over L.A. Lakers in seven: Maybe it's the sentimentalist in me but I think LeBron will do his best to drag the Lakers across the finish line. He'll come up short.

Minnesota over Phoenix in five: The only team that allowed fewer points per game than the Knicks were the Timberwolves. This was not the matchup the Suns were hoping for.

Dallas over L.A. Clippers in six: Never trust a team that has James Harden on it.


If the Knicks move on, I'll preview the second round.

Friday, April 19, 2024

NHL Playoff Preview (Round One)




One of the most memorable regular seasons in years has finally come to an end. The last few days were particularly exciting, with the final Wild Card spot and seedings in both conferences not decided until game 82. Now comes the hard part: the playoffs, where the rubber meets the road.

Last season, I went 5-3 in the first round, which given how bad my regular season predictions were - I actually had the Seattle Kraken, Calgary Flames, Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators all making the playoffs this season - is nothing short of miraculous. 

Just like I did last time, I will start with the New York Rangers, then work my way down by conference. And again I feel compelled to remind everyone to take these predictions with a grain of salt. If my wealth were dependent on my prowess as a prognosticator, I'd be living in a box. Nostradamus I ain't.

Eastern Conference:

Rangers vs. Washington: This year's Presidents' trophy winner goes up against a team that finished the regular season with a minus 37 goal differential. The Rangers finished the regular season with a franchise record 55 wins and 114 points. With the exception of January, they were the lead dog pretty much from mid-October.

On paper, this series shouldn't be close. The stats tell a story of two very different teams. Alex Ovechkin led the Caps with 31 goals; Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider led the Rangers with 49 and 39 goals respectively. New York has two centers with more than 70 points a piece; Washington doesn't have any. Panarin led the Rangers in scoring with 120 points; Dylan Strome had 67 for the Caps. The Rangers defense was 4th in the NHL in scoring with 201 points; the Caps were 25th with 135. I could go on.

But as we know all too well, series aren't decided on paper; they're decided on the rink. And if you look carefully under the hood there are some things that should concern the Blueshirts.

Since the All-Star Break, the Caps have the number one power play in the NHL at 28.9 percent. The Rangers are 4th at 25.3 percent. For a team that relies heavily on its ability to score with the man advantage, that's not exactly good news. Fortunately, New York's penalty kill is much better than Washington's: 87.1 percent (2nd) to 77.8 percent (13th) over that stretch.

Then there's the goaltending. Since March 1, both Igor Shesterkin and Charlie Lindgren - Ryan's brother - have identical .916 save percentages and three shutouts. What this means is that yet another advantage the Rangers were hoping to capitalize on will be neutralized.

Last, but not least, there's that old bugaboo that has plagued the Rangers for years: their propensity to play down to the level of their opponent. If it should rear its ugly head in this series, this will be the worst offseason in franchise history, and that includes last year when they were dispatched by the New Jersey Devils. More than ever, this team must ignore the standings and treat the Caps as if they were the Colorado Avalanche.

To prevail, the Rangers must do three things: 1. Play with the lead. Coming from behind against a team that won its last two games 2-0 and 2-1 is playing with fire; 2. Exploit Washington's lack of speed by playing an uptempo game. The Caps may be bigger, but the Rangers are faster; 3. Avoid turnovers at the blue line, especially in the 3rd period. In what promises to be a low-scoring series, every mistake has the potential to be costly.

In the end, the Rangers are the far better team. They have the depth and skill to dispense with the Capitals. If Filip Chytil is able to play and Peter Laviolette decides to dress him, that will give the Blueshirts yet another weapon at their disposal. But this will hardly be a cake walk. Those predicting a sweep are likely to be disappointed. Rangers in six.

Carolina vs. Islanders: For the second straight season these two teams will meet in the first round. Last year, the Hurricanes won in six. But that Canes team didn't have Jake Guentzel, who since his arrival from Pittsburgh has 7 goals and 18 assists in 17 games. This Isles team is actually deeper offensively than last year's team but not nearly as good defensively, especially against the power play where they rank near the bottom of the league. Patrick Roy's group will put up a fight, but they will come up short. Hurricanes in six.

Florida vs. Tampa Bay: Two years ago, the Bolts swept the Puddy Tats in the second round on their way to a third consecutive Stanley Cup finals appearance. Since then, the Panthers have retooled and are a much tougher team to play against. Last year, they made it all the way to Cup finals before losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. Throughout most of this season, they flirted with the best record in the league. By contrast, Tampa has turned over 50 percent of its roster and has looked nothing like those championship teams. The tables have finally turned in the Sunshine State. Panthers in six.

Boston vs. Toronto: One of these years the Maple Leafs will hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. But it won't be this year. Even after losing their top two centers to retirement over the summer, the Bruins are the better team in this matchup. It isn't just that they went 4-0 against the Leafs during the regular season; it's that their forte is checking, which is the Achilles heel of the Leafs, a roster that more closely resembles an All-Star team than a Cup contender. 1967 is fast becoming the new 1940. Bruins in six.

Western Conference:

Dallas vs. Vegas: The Golden Knights will regret not winning their last regular season game. That's because had they done so, they would've avoided playing the Stars, who finished the regular season 12-2-0 and pound for pound are the deepest, most balanced team in the NHL. There are no superstars on this roster; just a relentless group of forwards and defensemen who play the game the way it was meant to be played. And they've got the goaltending to go all the way. Stars in six.

Vancouver vs. Nashville: With all due respect to Peter Laviolette, Rick Tocchet deserves the Jack Adams Award. Since replacing Bruce Boudreau behind the bench midway through last season, the Canucks are 70-35-13. That's a .648 winning percentage. If Thatcher Demko is healthy, they will make a deep run in the postseason. Canucks in six.

Winnipeg vs. Colorado: Talk about a dichotomy. The number one defense in the NHL pitted against the number one offense. The Jets will have the likely Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck in net, while the Avs will have Alexandar Georgiev. Nuff said. Nathan MacKinnon may have to settle for winning the Hart Trophy this season. Jets in six.

Edmonton vs. Los Angeles: For the third consecutive year, these two teams will meet in the playoffs, with the Oilers having won the last two. Kris Knoblauch's greatest accomplishment since taking over for Jay Woodcroft wasn't getting the Oilers back on the winning track. They had more than enough talent to do that on their own. It was getting them to commit to playing defense. The results speak for themselves. Edmonton gave up the 10th fewest goals in the league. The Kings' 1-3-1 system will slow down the Oilers high-powered offense a bit, but it won't be able to stop it. Oilers in six.

Assuming the Rangers win their series, I'll do the next round once this one is over.




Thursday, April 11, 2024

The One Thing That Could Trip Up the Rangers



It's no secret that the New York Rangers are hardly a powerhouse when it comes to their even-strength play. Words like "pedestrian" and "ordinary" describe a team that is "23rd in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 (48.6%) through 78 games and slightly underwater on percentage of shot attempts per 60 minutes (49.8%), ranking 19th overall." And it's certainly no secret that their power play and goaltending will be keys to whatever success they hope to have in the postseason.

But while the analytic community may be split as to whether the Rangers are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, there is another, far bigger threat that could trip up this team once the playoffs begin. Over their last 13 games, the Rangers have surrendered the first goal ten times. In half of those games, the deficit has been two or more goals.

Tuesday night at UBS Arena, the Rangers got off to yet another slow start and struggled to establish themselves in the first 20 minutes of play. The Islanders took full advantage, scoring the game's first 3 goals. It would've been more had Igor Shesterkin not made several brilliant saves. When the Rangers finally woke up, they dominated the Isles the rest of the way, scoring two power play goals in the second period and registering the first 10 shots on goal in the third. Unfortunately for the Blueshirts, their rally fell short and they lost 4-2.

Not every slow start has led to a loss. Against the Pittsburgh Penguins (3/16), the Boston Bruins (3/21), the Florida Panthers (3/23) the Philadelphia Flyers (3/26), the Colorado Avalanche (3/28), and the Montreal Canadiens (4/7) the Rangers were successfully able to overcome their sluggish start and win. Indeed, the Rangers lead the NHL with 27 come-from-behind victories; 13 of them came when they were trailing going into the third period.

And therein lies the problem. It’s one thing to play from behind and not get burned during the regular season; it’s quite another to do it in the playoffs. The Rangers are playing with fire if they think they can make a deep run in the postseason by adopting this strategy. Maybe they beat the Islanders or the Capitals in a seven-game series playing like that, but good luck beating the Carolina Hurricanes. This season, the Rangers were 2-1 against the Canes. Both times they won, they played with the lead; the one time they didn't, they trailed early.

The simple truth is that the teams which represent the biggest challenge to the Rangers on their road to the Stanley Cup will not be so easy to come from behind against once the postseason begins. Even the Bruins, a team the Rangers went 3-0 against, will eat them alive if they don't snap out of this funk.

Priority number one for Peter Laviolette and his coaching staff will be to convince this very talented team to show up on time and play a full 60 minutes. These inexplicable slow starts must stop, and stop now. He must light a fire under his players while there is still time. 

The good news is that the Rangers have, for the most part, responded positively to what their head coach has preached. From day one, the emphasis has been on structure and puck management. They've been the cornerstones of their success all season long. It's the principle reason why, with the exception of January, they've been among the best teams in the league, and are currently on the verge of winning their first Presidents' Trophy since 2015.

Two years ago, the Rangers trailed the Penguins 3-1 in the first round. They won the next three games; the last one coming in overtime at the Garden. In the next round, they trailed the Hurricanes 2-0 before winning 4 of the next 5 games. In both series, they beat the odds to prevail. 

If the Rangers know what's good for them, they will do everything in their power to avoid tempting the hand of fate again.



Friday, April 5, 2024

Nova Prime



On the same night the New York Knicks found out that Julius Randle's season was officially over, they could've rolled over and phoned it in. And for a while there against the Sacramento Kings, it looked as if they were about to do just that. They trailed the Kings 39-20 early in the second quarter at the Garden. Losers of three straight, they were well on their way to their fourth.

But then this incredibly resilient, but undermanned, group of athletes found an inner resolve and refused to lose. They outscored the Kings 100-70 the rest of the way to improve their record to 45-31. The victory allowed them to keep pace with the Orlando Magic, who had beaten the New Orleans Pelicans the night before.

Leading the way for the Blue and Orange was the awesome threesome from Villanova: Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart. The three combined for 87 of New York's 120 points. But though Brunson led all scorers with 35 points, it was Hart's 31 that proved the most consequential. Hart has been coach Tom Thibodeau's Swiss army knife all season long. His versatility has allowed Thibs to play him at either the 2, 3 or 4. Not noted for his scoring prowess, last night's production was sorely needed and much appreciated by his teammates.

Indeed, while Brunson continues to prove his detractors wrong, amid the chants of "MVP," it's the production of DiVincenzo and Hart that have allowed this Knicks team to flirt with second place in the Eastern Conference, even after Randle and OG Anunoby went down at the end of January. And any hope they have of winning a round or two in the postseason will hinge on how well these three incredibly talented players perform. 

Thibodeau's decision to ostensibly go with four guards in his starting lineup the last few games is a tacit admission by him that he realizes the Knicks don't have an ice cube's chance in hell with a more conventional starting lineup. Let's face it: Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks have both been busts since their arrival from Detroit. The only bright spot is that at least Leon Rose didn't part with any of his first round picks to land them. But their failure to produce offense has forced Thibs to run his guards ragged. The other night in Miami, they looked gassed. How much longer he can afford to do this remains to be seen.

The good news for the Knicks is that of their remaining six games, three are against the Chicago Bulls and one is against the Brooklyn Nets. A record of 49-33 is certainly doable and just might be enough to secure the 4th seed in the East, which would give them the home court against the Magic. Who knows, if Anunoby makes it back in time for the playoffs, a deep run could still be in the offing.

It's nice to dream, isn't it?


Monday, April 1, 2024

The Sad Reality About the Knicks


This season, the New York Knicks are second in the NBA with a 123.1 offensive rating when Jalen Brunson is on the court. Conversely, they are 30th in the league with a 103.4 offensive rating when he is on the bench.

The numbers are as undeniable as they are alarming. When Brunson is on the court, the Knicks are one of the best teams in the NBA; when he isn't, they're one of the worst. Last night's game against the Oklahoma City Thunder at the Garden illustrated that point. The Knicks were leading the Thunder by 10  after three. Coach Tom Thibodeau, for some reason, elected to keep Brunson on the bench to start the 4th quarter and OKC rolled off seven straight points.

By the time Brunson re-entered the game with 7:42 left, all the momentum the Knicks had built up was gone. And while it's true that there should've been a foul on the Brunson layup that gave New York a 112-111 lead with 4.1 seconds left, the real culprit was a Knicks bench that has been putrid ever since the trade deadline. 

Last night, the Thunder bench outscored the Knicks bench 36-18. The other night in San Antonio, the Spurs bench outscored the Knicks bench 38-19. The Spurs, it should be noted, are one of the worst teams in the NBA. Yet, had it not been for Brunson's 61 point performance, they would've blown out the Knicks. Think about that: a 17 win team beating a 44 win team.

There's no getting around it: without Julius Randle, OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks don't have the depth necessary to compete with the top teams in the league, unless Brunson plays all 48 minutes. Yes, they can handle most of the basement dwellers, but that's about it. For the better part of the last eight weeks, ever since Randle and Anunoby went down, Thibodeau has been primarily relying on six players to save the season. It was refreshing to see the return of Anunoby and Robinson, if only for a couple of games, but both players suffered setbacks and are now listed as day to day.

Things were going so well only a couple of months ago. The Knicks were the hottest team in the league. They went 14-2 in January. The trade that brought Aununoby and Precious Achiuwa from Toronto for RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley looked like the steal of the decade. There was talk of a possible deep run in the playoffs.

But then Randle went down with a shoulder separation against the Heat on January 27, followed a game later by Anunuoby with what was described initially as soreness of the right elbow. Not to worry, we were told. Randle likely wouldn't need surgery, and even though Aununoby eventually did require surgery to remove bone chips, the procedure was not considered season ending. Both players were expected back in time for the playoffs, along with Robinson.

But now that's all up in the air. Randle still has not been cleared for contact in practice, and since Anunoby suffered a setback with his elbow, he too hasn't had contact in practice. There is no timetable for either to return. And while Robinson's ankle soreness continues to be monitored, no one knows when or if he'll return.

Josh Hart may have summed up the Knicks situation best when he said during a post-game interview, "I'm looking at it like this is the team we're going to have. I think that's how we have to approach it, like those guys aren't coming back. And obviously we'll be pleasantly surprised if they come back."

So, pending a miracle, the starting rotation for the remainder of the season will be as follows: Isaiah Hartenstein, Hart, Deuce McBride, Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo; the bench will be Achiuwa, Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks, with an odd appearance or two of Jericho Sims. You can kiss the Eastern Conference finals goodbye. With this lineup, the Knicks would be lucky to get out of the first round.

The good news is that Leon Rose still has all his first round draft picks that he can use as trade bait over the summer. With Brunson and a healthy Randle and Anunoby - assuming they sign him - the Knicks will be a legit contender next season.

But it still sucks knowing what could've been.

Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Just How Good Are the Mets?


It was, shall we say, an interesting off season for the New York Mets. Coming off a disappointing 2023 campaign in which they went 75-87, new President and GM David Stearns had the unenviable task of trying to put together a team that could at the very least be competitive in the National League East, while also being cognizant of the fact that millions of loyal fans have been patiently waiting for a championship since 1986.

Regarding the latter, before we go any further, it should be noted that in 2024 the Mets will be paying Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander collectively $55 million for the privilege of not playing for them. So while the angst of the fanbase is understandable, accusing Steve Cohen of being cheap isn't. Seriously, can you imagine the Wilpons footing that kind of bill?

It turns out not signing Ohtani or Yamamoto may prove to be a Godsend. Yamamoto got lit up like a Christmas tree in his first start as a Dodger, and the more we find out about Ohtani's connection to his interpreter, the more I think a shit storm may be brewing in Los Angeles. Call me a cynic, but I think Cohen and the Mets will look back on last summer and thank their lucky stars they didn't sign either of these two players. Frankly, it would serve the Dodgers right if the whole thing blew up in their face.

But while saving a billion dollars over the next ten years is all well and good, to paraphrase a well-known, rhetorical question, What does that have to do with the price of tea in Flushing? If you're a Mets fan all you care about is your team, and right now this team has more holes than a golf course. Beginning with hole number one:

The Starting Rotation. Kodai Senga, the ace, is out until May. Even with him healthy, this staff is thin. Luis Severino, the opening day pitcher, was 4-8 with a 6.65 ERA for the Yankees last season. Tylor Megill went 9-8 with a serviceable 4.70 ERA for the Amazins' last season. Jose Quintana was 3-6 with a 3.57 ERA. Then things get interesting. Apparently the plan is for the starters to get to the 6th inning where the bullpen can take over. Good luck with that. Which brings us to hole number two:

The Bullpen: The return of Edwin Diaz will be a welcomed relief, no pun intended. His loss last season likely cost the Mets a minimum of 10 wins. However, it'll be the middle of this bullpen that determines how many save opportunities Diaz actually gets. Stearns is banking on Adam Ottavino to be the set up man, while Drew Smith and newcomer Jake Diekman will do most of the heavy lifting in the 6th and 7th innings. At best, this is a work in progress.

The Batting Order: The signing of J.D. Martinez to hit DH was huge. His 33 home runs and 103 runs batted in will add depth to the Mets lineup, as well as give Pete Alonso - 46 HRs and 118 RBIs - some badly-needed protection. The slugger batted a career-low .217. With Martinez batting behind him, the Polar Bear might be a little more selective at the plate. Francisco Lindor remains the team's best overall hitter and infielder, while Brandon Nimmo is its best and most dependable outfielder. After that, questions remain. Can Starling Marte come back? Can Harrison Bader stay healthy? Is Francisco Alvarez for real or just a flash in last season's pan? Can Jeff McNeill rebound from a disappointing '23? Is Brett Baty the next David Wright or the next Wayne Garrett?

The Bench: Let's not push it, OK?

The Manager: Perhaps the best thing Carlos Mendoza has going for him is that the expectations for this team are fairly low. Unlike his predecessor Buck Showlater, who was brought in to win a title, if the Mets are competitive, that should suffice.

Prediction: The return of Diaz and the addition of Martinez will keep the Mets above .500. Who knows, they could even challenge for one of the Wild Cards. But if I were a betting man, I'd say they fall short of a postseason berth. Record: 83-79, 4th place in the NL East.


Monday, March 25, 2024

Why the Rangers Shouldn't Take Their Foot Off the Gas Pedal


As the regular season begins to wind down, the New York Rangers are currently leading the Metropolitan Division by one point over the Carolina Hurricanes. They are also in first place in the Eastern Conference and are tied with the Vancouver Canucks for the NHL lead. By any and all accounts this has been the best Rangers team to take the ice since that Presidents' Trophy winner of 2014-15.

But while this team continues to amaze even its staunchest critics, there are a growing number of fans who would prefer that they finish in second behind the Hurricanes, and you'll never guess what their reason is.

You see it has to do with which team the Rangers would face in the playoffs. If the Rangers finish first in the Metro, but second overall in the East, their opponent would be the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, if they were to finish in second, they would face either the Philadelphia Flyers or the surging Washington Capitals. The prevailing sentiment among this group is that if you're the Rangers, you'd much rather play the Flyers or the Caps than the Lightning.

There are three flaws in this thinking. I'll list them in order.

One: The Lightning aren't nearly as good as some are making them out to be. Yes, they've been hot of late, but since their last Cup in '21, they have turned over half their roster. The Rangers won the first two games of the season series 5-1 and 3-1, and were 28 minutes away from a series sweep. So thorough was their domination that halfway through the second period of game three, the Bolts had managed a paltry eight shots on goal. If that's your idea of a tough matchup, I shudder to think what an easy one would look like.

Two: Anyone who's seen this Rangers team play over the last few seasons knows all too well that they have a nasty habit of playing to the level of their opponent. For instance, some of the best games they've played this season have come against teams like the Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars and Hurricanes. However, they've also had some of their worst games against teams like the San Jose Sharks and Columbus Blue Jackets. Now I'm not suggesting that the Flyers are as bad as the Sharks or the Jackets; far from it. But the idea that somehow the Blueshirts are just going to breeze by Philly is absurd. This is a John Tortorella-coached team. They will be a tough out, no matter who they play.

Three: Apparently, these fans must've been in a coma over the last twelve months, because this was the same stupidity we heard out of most of the players last season. It doesn't matter where we finish in the standings, they said, we can flip the switch come playoff time. How'd that work out? Oh, yeah, not so well. After going up 2-0 over the New Jersey Devils, the Rangers dropped four of the last five games and were unceremoniously bounced from the postseason. Arguably the most talented roster in decades never made it out of the first round. The fact is there is no switch. You're either ready for the playoffs or you're not. This is the message Peter Laviolette has tried to instill on his players from the start of training camp, and from what we've seen so far this season, that message has gotten through.

Look, are there inherent risks in going all out to finish in first place? Of course there are. But this is hockey, not baseball. You can get injured just as easily in second gear as you can in fifth. For me, the greater risk is taking your foot off the gas pedal because, as we've seen, there's no guarantee you can get the engine back up to speed.

Besides, if the Rangers finish first overall, their first-round opponent would be the last Wild Card team. That would be either the Detroit Red Wings or the aforementioned Flyers or Caps. They would also have home ice advantage throughout the playoffs. What's better than that?

Yes, there's the matter of the Presidents' Trophy curse. Turns out it's a real thing. In the salary cap era, only two winners of the trophy have gone on to win the Stanley Cup: the '08 Red Wings and the '13 Chicago Blackhawks. That's two out of a possible eighteen. Not a very good showing. And it gets even worse when you consider that the '23 Bruins and the '19 Lightning - both of whom had the best won-loss records since those legendary Montreal Canadiens teams of the 1970s - were eliminated in the first round.

But fear of a curse is no excuse for slacking off. This team is clicking on all cylinders. It would be the height of irresponsibility to throttle back now.

As the motto says, No Quit in New York!

Monday, March 18, 2024

Final Thoughts on Saquon Barkley



Let's be honest: the moment the New York Giants decided they weren't going to franchise tag Saquon Barkley, you pretty much knew his days as a Giant were numbered. If Joe Schoen didn't think he was worth $11.95 million - the limit the NFL allows for a running back on a franchise tag in 2024 - that was his way of saying "we're done here."

I don't begrudge Barkley from signing elsewhere; the man has a right to get paid what he thinks he's worth. Though I have to wonder if choosing the Philadelphia Eagles was his way of saying to Schoen, "Fuck you, too."

And I also think it's rather juvenile of some - not all - Giants fans to say things like "You're dead to me." Knock it off. The guy left the team; he didn't burn the flag or something. This is a business. Players leave one team for another all the time. If teams can do it, why can't players?

What I am going to take issue with is this notion that Barkley never got the multi-year offer from the Giants he was looking for. The people who are spreading that bullshit, especially on ESPN, need to stop it immediately. The fact is, Barkley received a very fair and lucrative contract offer from the Giants in January of 2023. It was a three-year deal for $36 million, with $22 million guaranteed. Barkley, his agent, or both turned it down. Hence, the Giants slapped the franchise tag on him so they wouldn't lose him in free agency.

Given that the Eagles signed Barkley to a three-year $37.7 million contract with $26 million guaranteed, basically the all-pro running back travelled 95 miles down the Jersey Turnpike for a lousy $1.7 million over three years and an additional $4 million in guaranteed money. If you're going to skewer Schoen for how he handled this situation, it's more than fair to hold Barkley to the same standard. Why didn't he sign the contract offer in '23? Had he done so, he'd be entering year two of that contract.

Unless, of course, Barkley wasn't exactly sure he wanted to stay a Giant and was keeping his options open. Think about it. A very successful, and equally surprising, 2022 season, which resulted in a playoff berth and a playoff win; the first since 2011. Everything that could've gone their way, did. We often hear how front offices have a bead on whether their teams overachieved or not, and what that means for their long-term strategy. 

Why can't players do the same thing? It's unfathomable to me that a man as savvy as Barkley, who insisted he wanted to retire a Giant, would pass up an opportunity to sign a three-year extension, knowing full well it would force the Giants hand. Unless that was his plan all along. Reject the offer, sign the franchise tag, see what kind of season the Giants had in '23, and if things fell apart, which they did, jump ship.

Sound too conspiratorial for you? Yeah, me too. But it's better than the alternative, which is that a very talented running back got some very bad advice from an inept agent, and that eventually led to him leaving the team that drafted him.

Sometimes the simplest answers are the ones right under our noses.


Thursday, March 14, 2024

Chris Drury's LTIR Nightmare



It's only been three games but already Jack Roslovic and Alex Wennberg have made an impression on their new teammates. Roslovic, playing right wing on the Zibanejad line, almost scored a goal in his first game and helped set up goals in his next two: one against the New Jersey Devils; the other against the Carolina Hurricanes. Wennberg with an assist in his first game, has solidified a third line that has badly needed a center to replace the injured Filip Chytil.

The analytics for both lines are considerably better than they were a week ago. Indeed, over the last three games the Rangers top three lines at 5v5 are above 50% GF percentage. That means they are on the ice for more goals for than against at 5v5. It is no coincidence that Chris Drury's trade deadline acquisitions have had a lot to do with this recent uptick. For the first time since the start of the season, the Rangers roster is finally set.

But while the playoffs are still a month away, Drury has a dilemma on his hands that he will have to deal with over the summer. That's because he has a huge decision to make regarding Chytil's status. The center went down with what is believed to be his third concussion of his career in a game against the Hurricanes on November 2 and has been out of the lineup ever since. A month ago he attempted a comeback and while practicing at Madison Square Garden collapsed and had to be helped off the ice. It was at that time that the Rangers decided to shut him down and keep him on LTIR for good.

And while his $4.43 million cap hit was put to good use, along with that of Blake Wheeler's $800k cap hit, no one knows for certain what will happen with Chytil next season. As I see it, there are three possible outcomes here.

1. Chytil, upon being told he will likely never fully recover, decides to retire. In that event, he remains on LTIR, allowing the Rangers to use his cap hit towards other players.

2. Chytil, upon being told he will likely never fully recover, decides not to retire, but instead chooses to collect his full salary, which he is entitled to under the CBA. In that event, he remains on LTIR, allowing the Rangers to use his cap hit towards other players.

Both of these outcomes would give the Rangers plenty of cap space to re-sign Wennberg if they want, and with the salary cap going up by $4million to $87.5 million next season, that should be enough cap space to re-sign Kaapo Kakko, Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider. Brendon Othmann could potentially replace Roslovic on the top line. Problem solved.

But then there's a third outcome that could prove nightmarish for Drury.

3. Chytil is told he will likely never fully recover but insists on trying a comeback anyway. He somehow gets medical clearance to resume skating, and after a few weeks is medically cleared to rejoin the team. The problem for Drury is that the NHL takes a dim view of teams that hide players on LTIR for the purpose of getting cap relief, unless of course you're the Vegas Golden Knights or the Tampa Bay Lightning.

If Drury re-signs Wennberg to a four year deal with, say, a $4.5m AAV, he would have to clear out enough salary to offset Chytil's cap hit before activating him. Knowing how the league is run, Drury might as well hang a sign around his neck that reads, "Please screw me." Because that's exactly what any competing GM will do. Given how well regarded the Rangers are around the league (sarcasm), the phone calls should go something like this: "Hi, Chris, how you doin'? So Chytil is ready to come back and you need someone to take him off your hands for you? Gee, I'm sorry but I'm not sure I could use him. Of course for a couple of first round picks, I might have some use for him."

Now I'm not saying that every GM will try to do that to Drury; some may actually be sympathetic to his plight and try to help him out. But this much is certain: the longer he waits to move Chytil's contract, the harder it's going to be to do so.

But why move him? After all, if Chytil is medically cleared to play, why wouldn't he want him on the roster, especially after the season he had last year? The reason should be obvious enough. The hit Chytil took from Jesper Fast in the second period of that Hurricanes game was not particularly hard. It's the sort of hit hockey players take all the time. In fact, when it happened, it looked as though Fast got the worst of it. Knowing how the game is played, it is only a matter of time before Chytil gets hit like that again, and when that happens, he will be right back on LTIR.

Drury would be foolish to tie his team's fortunes to the health of a player whose one concussion away from forced retirement. Even if Drury believes that the odds of Chytil making a successful comeback are slim to none, his best recourse is still to move him over the summer. Believe it or not, there is precedent for just such a move. Three years ago, Lightning GM Julian BriseBois was up against the cap, so he traded Tyler Johnson and a second round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for the contract of Brent Seabrook. Johnson's cap hit was $5m and Seabrook's was $6.875m. Seabrook was on LTIR due to an injury that eventually forced him into retirement.

Do the math. $5million plus $6.875million equals $11.875million. If you want to know why BriseBois is considered a genius when it comes to navigating the salary cap, this is why. There isn't a loophole the man doesn't know about or can't exploit. Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon obviously took notes as evidenced by his "maneuvers" at this year's trade deadline.

But wouldn't it make more sense, given the Seabrook example, for Drury to keep Chytil? Under normal circumstances it might. But there's another complication. While Chytil is on LTIR, the Rangers do not accrue cap space. Going into the season, the Rangers had $675k in cap space. With the normal accrual process, Drury would've had roughly $3m by the trade deadline to go shopping. The rash of injuries put the kibosh on that. In effect, all Drury had to work with were the contracts of Chytil and Wheeler which came out to $5.2 million. And before you say the obvious: Isn't $5.2m larger than $3m? Keep in mind, Drury, I'm sure, was counting on a healthy Chytil and Wheeler, along with that $3m when the season started. All the $5.2 million did was allow him to find replacements for the wounded.

The bottom line is this: teams can borrow against players on LTIR, but they can't double dip. It's either or. That's why Drury must trade Chytil's contract. Keeping him only hamstrings the organization and prevents him from doing his job, which is to make this team deeper and stronger.

Look, what happened to Filip Chytil is truly tragic. A promising, young career maybe over at 24. But it would be infinitely more tragic for the Rangers to give in to sentiment. At the end of the day, this is still a business, and Chris Drury, as the President and GM of this franchise, has an obligation, first and foremost, to that franchise.



Saturday, March 9, 2024

For Drury, Less is More



When it comes to trade deadlines, there are two types of teams: sellers and buyers. Sellers are teams that know their season is over and are looking to see what they can get for their assets. Buyers are teams that believe they have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup and are looking for players who can help them in their quest.

Suffice to say, the New York Rangers fall into the latter type. For the third straight season, President and General Manger Chris Drury has used the trade deadline to bolster his team's chances in the postseason. In 2022, Drury acquired Frank Vatrano, Justin Braun, Tyler Motte and Andrew Copp. All four players were instrumental in the Blueshirts advancing to the Eastern Conference finals where, unfortunately, they were eliminated by the Tampa Bay Lightning, who were looking for their third consecutive Cup. 

In 2023. Drury went out and landed Vladimir Tarasenko, Niko Mikkola, Motte (again) and Patrick Kane. But unlike the previous season, the imports Drury brought in were, save for maybe Motte and Mikkola, not complimentary pieces; they were stars in their own right who, far from helping an already good team become better, wound up upsetting the chemistry in the locker room. The power play, which had been a staple of the team for the last two seasons, looked disorganized, as head coach Gerard Gallant struggled to find just the right combination. The whole thing unravelled against the New Jersey Devils in the opening round of the playoffs.

By no means were the Rangers the only organization to fall victim to the naive belief that you can never have enough stars. The Boston Bruins apparently weren't satisfied with running away with the Presidents' Trophy, so they brought in the proverbial kitchen sink at the deadline. And just like the Rangers, they were dispatched early at the hands of a Florida Panthers team that needed a loss by the Pittsburgh Penguins just to qualify for the playoffs. How's that for a kick in the teeth?

I'll say this for Drury: he's not one to make the same mistake twice. This time around, he refused to be seduced by all the shiny objects out there. The biggest and shiniest object was Jake Guentzel, a winger who for the last eight seasons has played alongside one of the best centers of this generation: Sidney Crosby. With just over a day to go before the 3 P.M. March 8 deadline, the Penguins let it be known that they were shopping the all-star forward.

Supposedly, four teams were vying for his services; the Vancouver Canucks, the Vegas Golden Knights, the Carolina Hurricanes and the Rangers. As Thursday afternoon turned into Thursday evening, only two teams remained in the hunt: the Hurricanes and the Rangers. The Penguins were looking for a substantial return for Guentzel, one that Drury was not prepared to pay, so Guentzel went to Carolina.

Predictably, Rangers Twitter went apoplectic. How could Drury screw this up? Guentzel was practically ours. Never mind that the price Pittsburgh was looking to extract - a number one draft pick, Kaapo Kakko and two top-tier prospects - would've gutted the organization. Never mind that he's a rental that Drury might not be able to re-sign over the summer. All that mattered was the big splash.

Thankfully, Drury held his ground. Don't get me wrong: Guentzel would've looked nice in a Rangers uniform. His resume speaks for itself. But he's a left winger on a team that badly needed a right winger. There's no guarantee he'd be able to make the switch. Plus, he's played with Crosby his entire career. While Mika Zibanejad is hardly chopped liver, he's no Crosby. The whole thing had the makings of Kane 2.0.

Undaunted, Drury turned his sights elsewhere. He had already acquired Alex Wennberg from the Seattle Kraken on Wednesday. Wennberg is a solid two-way player who will solidify a third line that has badly needed a center ever since Filip Chytil went down with a season-ending third concussion in November. He then acquired defenseman Chad Ruhwedel from the Penguins to add depth to the D core. All that was left was to get his right winger.

As the clock ticked closer and closer to 3, it was beginning to look like Drury was going to strike out. The Anaheim Ducks were looking for a first rounder for Vatrano, who is having a career year. The St. Louis Blues were looking for two number ones and a prospect for Pavel Buchnevich. Suffice to say, Drury balked at both "proposals."

Finally, with about 10 minutes to go, Drury found his man. Jack Roslovic of the Columbus Blue Jackets is listed as a center, but he was playing right wing on the Jackets top line with Boone Jenner and Johnny Gaudreau, and playing it quite well. Over his last 12 games, he has 13 points: 4 goals and 9 assists. His speed is a commodity this team can certainly use, and while Peter Laviolette will decide where he best fits in, all indications are that he will start on the Rangers top line.

Three holes to fill, three holes filled, and Drury didn't have to part with Kakko, or any of his number one picks or top prospects. Wennberg cost him a second-rounder and a fourth-rounder obtained from the Dallas Stars in the Nils Lundkvist deal; Ruhwedel a 2027 fourth rounder; and Roslovic a '26 conditional fourth that becomes a third if the Rangers make it to the conference finals. And as if that wasn't enough, Drury got both Wennberg and Roslovic with 50 percent salary retention. The man is methodical if nothing else.

No one can predict what impact these players will have on their new team. But given that the Rangers have been the lead dog in the Metropolitan Division pretty much the entire season, the expectation is that they can only help solidify their position. The second place Hurricanes also improved themselves and are only two points behind depending on what the Blueshirts do tonight against the Blues. The likelihood is that one of these two teams will meet either the Bruins or the Panthers in the ECF for the right to go to the Cup finals.

Did Drury nail this deadline? We'll know soon enough. But at least he didn't blow it like he did last year. And that's progress.


Monday, March 4, 2024

It's Time We Talked About Zibanejad



From October through December of this season, the New York Rangers had the number one power play in the NHL at 30.9%. Since then, they have the 6th worst power play at 16.0%. Among playoff teams, only the Philadelphia Flyers (15.7%) and the Vegas Golden Knights (13.8%) are worse.

For a team that isn't exactly known for its 5v5 play, that's a non-starter. Put succinctly, the Rangers have no shot at a deep run in the playoffs if they can't score with the man advantage. So what happened? Why has one of the most potent power plays in the league gone ice cold over the last two months?

Last season, Mika Zibanejad scored 39 goals; 20 of them coming on the power play. He was the team leader in both categories. The year before that he had 29 goals and 15 power play tallies. Only Chris Kreider - 52 and 26 respectively - had more. This season, Zibanejad has struggled both at even strength and with the man advantage. He has only 19 goals, 9 on the power play.

With all the talk about Zibanejad's lack of production at even strength - his last 5v5 goal came against the Buffalo Sabres at the Garden on December 23 - it's his lack of production on the power play that has been the biggest mystery. His signature one-timer from the left face off circle has been off. When it isn't being blocked, it's missing the net altogether. And because the Rangers have become so dependent on that one-timer, when it doesn't connect, the power play struggles. In short, the Rangers don't have a Plan B when their Plan A doesn't work.

Head coach Peter Laviolette has been patient to a fault. His reluctance to replace Zibanejad on the first power play unit has only made a bad situation worse. And while no one can fault him for having faith in his players, especially with the team going 10-1 in February, that misplaced loyalty could prove costly in March, where the Rangers play 10 games against playoff caliber teams. One of those teams - the Toronto Maple Leafs - beat them 4-3 in a shoot out on Saturday. The Rangers went 0-3 on the power play against one of the worst penalty kill teams in the league. Only a goal by Vincent Trocheck with 1:07 left and the goalie pulled allowed the Blueshirts to come away with a point.

They are not going to be so lucky against the likes of the Florida Panthers - who they play twice - the Carolina Hurricanes, the Boston Bruins, the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Winnipeg Jets, the Flyers or the Colorado Avalanche. With the exception of the Flyers, every one of those teams are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. If the Rangers can't get their power play going, their hopes of holding onto first place in the Metropolitan division, not to mention their Cup aspirations, will go up in smoke.

It is time for Laviolette to show some tough love; it is time for him to hold one of the leaders of this team accountable. More importantly, it's time for him to reward a player who has done everything the coaching staff has asked of him. In his fourth season in the NHL, Alexis Lafreniere is finally coming into his own. He had one of his best games of the season in Toronto with a goal and two assists. His 16 even-strength goals are 3rd on the team, and his two power play goals lead all players not on the first unit. If anyone deserves a promotion, it is him.

Swapping Zibanejad for Lafreniere makes sense. He's already playing with Trocheck and Artemi Panarin, so the three are familiar with each other. And Laviolette would be sending a very important and powerful message to his players: the team comes first. His predecessor Gerard Gallant sometimes had a problem with that, and the result was an early exit last Spring. If Laviolette wishes to avoid a repeat performance, he needs to act now before it's too late.

No one knows when, or if, Zibanejad will snap out of his funk. His resume suggests he will. But let's be honest: if he doesn't come around, if that one-timer of his continues to misfire, Chris Drury can resurrect the spirit of Guy Lafleur at the trade deadline; it won't make a difference. As great a season as Panarin is having, he can't will this team to a Cup all by himself. He needs help.

In the end, Number 93 has got to hold up his end.


Wednesday, February 21, 2024

In Igor We Trust



What a difference a month makes. In January, the New York Rangers were in the midst of a mid-season slump which saw them go 5-7-2, allowing 47 goals for an average of 3.36 per game. Their number one goaltender Igor Shesterkin was, likewise, in a slump. His save percentage of .863 tied a career low. The optimism that surrounded the team earlier in the year was gone, replaced by a sense of fatalism that Rangers fans know all too well.

But then, as if by Providence, the All-Star Break arrived, and so far in February, the Rangers have gone 7-0-0, surrendering a paltry 15 goals for an average of 2.14 per game. And not coincidentally, Shesterkin's save percentage for the month is an astounding .937.

This is the second year in a row that Shesterkin has shit the bed one month only to miraculously regain his Vezina trophy form the next. Last season he had an identical save percentage of .863 in February before posting save percentages of .932 and .941 over the final two months of the regular season.

While the Rangers have definitely improved their level of play under Peter Laviolette, one thing remains constant: this team will go as far as its goaltending takes them. Two years ago, that was good enough to advance to the Eastern Conference finals. Chris Drury can bring in all the reinforcements he wants at the trade deadline; if Shesterkin isn't Shesterkin, it won't matter.

Witness what happened Tuesday night at the Garden. Fresh off their exhilarating, come-from-behind, 6-5 overtime win against the Islanders Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium, the Rangers played a spirited first two periods against the Dallas Stars, one of the best teams in the Western Conference, carrying a 2-1 lead into the third period. In the third, though, Dallas peppered Shesterkin with 17 shots on goal, many of them high danger chances. And Igor didn't blink. He turned aside all 17 of them. Between the win over the Stars and the shutout over the Calgary Flames last Monday night, Shesterkin stopped 70 of 71 shots he faced.

Over their storied existence, the Rangers have been blessed to have some of the best goalies in NHL history play for them. Dave Kerr, Gump Worsley, Jacques Plante, Eddie Giacomin, John Vanbiesbrouck, Mike Richter, Henrik Lundqvist and now Shesterkin. Sadly, only Kerr (1940) and Richter (1994) succeeded in leading their teams to the Stanley Cup; Giacomin (1972) and Lundqvist (2014) took them only as far as the finals.

The jury is still out on Shesterkin. There are times when no one in the league can touch him with a ten foot goalie stick. Then there are times when you shake your head and wonder what the hell's going on. Two years ago, he outclassed Andrei Vasilevskiy in the first two games of the Easter Conference finals, and had it not been for a couple of questionable coaching decisions by Gerard Gallant, the Rangers might well have gone on to win their second Cup since World War II.

The talent is undeniable. If there's a problem, it resides between his ears. Put succinctly, Shesterkin is a very emotional player, who's prone to ups and downs. Unlike King Henrik, who had ice water in his veins, it doesn't take much to get Igor off his game. One bad goal and it all comes crashing down like a house of cards. I've never seen anything like it. All goalies have bad games; Shesterkin has bad months.

But now that he's rediscovered his game, fans are once again chanting "Igor, Igor," while opponents are cursing him under their breath. Tuesday night it was the Stars turn to curse, and curse they did. Dallas is second in the NHL in goals scored, yet Shesterkin made them look like the Hartford Wolf Pack.

That's the kind of brilliance he's capable of displaying, and it's the kind of brilliance the Rangers are going to need come April. For all their skillset, this is still a team that likes to live on the edge. Without elite-level goaltending they are only slightly better than the team that muddled through the month of January. Jonathan Quick has been a steady and reliable backup, one of the best signings Drury has made in his tenure as GM. But at 38, no one knows if he has the stamina to go four rounds.

In the end, fair or not, it all comes down to Igor. He will either be the Rangers ticket to a deep run in the postseason, or the reason they get booted early.



Saturday, February 17, 2024

Wheeler's Injury May Force Drury's Hand


Even before Blake Wheeler went down with what is likely a season-ending injury to his right leg in the first period of Thursday night's 7-4 win over the Montreal Canadiens, Chris Drury was contemplating what moves he was going to make at the trade deadline to shore up a roster that, despite a dismal January, is still in first place in the Metropolitan division and has now won six in a row.

With 9 goals and 12 assists on the season, it's not like Wheeler was tearing it up. Head coach Peter Laviolette tried shuffling him between the first and third lines in an attempt to unlock some of the skill the Rangers thought they were getting when they signed him over the summer. He finally settled on the first line when it became obvious that the third line of Kaapo Kakko, Jonny Brodzinski and Will Cuylle was too good to tinker with. Unlike his predecessor, Gerard Gallant, Laviolette is not one to fix what isn't broken.

But now that Wheeler is lost for the season, it is imperative that Drury find a replacement. And the sooner the better. Jimmy Vesey is a capable stopgap, but he is far more valuable to this team in the bottom six than in the top six. And with the Rangers apparently determined to keep Brennan Othmann in Hartford, Wheeler's replacement will have to come from outside the organization. Then there's the matter of finding a center for the fourth line. With the trade deadline literally three weeks away, Drury will be burning the midnight oil.

Of course, there's just a couple of "small" problems that could potentially gum up the works. The first should be obvious: Drury won't be the only buyer looking for help; the second is that thanks to an unusually competitive 2023-24 regular season, the number of sellers might be relatively small compared with past years. For instance, I'm sure Jordan Eberle and Yanni Gourde would make fine additions to the Rangers lineup. But with the Seattle Kraken only four points out of a playoff spot, GM Ron Francis might be reluctant to part with them, unless of course Drury is willing to pay a king's ransom.

And that isn't likely to happen, for two reasons: 1. Drury isn't one to overpay; and 2. According to Darren Dregor, James Dolan has apparently directed Drury not to trade the club's number one pick. Seems the NHL Draft is being held at The Sphere in Las Vegas this year - which Dolan just happens to own - and he wants to see his GM make that slow walk up to the podium in the first round. And you thought he was done meddling with this franchise when he fired John Davidson and Jeff Gorton three years ago? Silly you.

So, to recap: first round pick off the table, seller's market, multiple buyers. Unless Drury can get Dolan to change his mind on the first rounder, he's going to need Iron Man to pull this one off. He may have no alternative but to narrow his search to just one need. And if I were a betting man, I'd say he opts to fill the right wing spot and rough it with Barclay Goodrow as his center.

I keep coming back to Frank Vatrano. He's played with Mika Zibanaejad before, so the two are familiar with each other; he's signed through next season, which will give the first line something it hasn't had since Pavel Buchnevich was in a Rangers uniform: stability; and the cap hit - $3.6 million - is manageable. If Drury can get the Anaheim Ducks to retain some salary, it's a slam dunk.

Then there's always fan favorite Vladimir Tarasenko. Frankly, I wouldn't get my hopes up for a Broadway reunion. For starters, the price tag for the Ottawa Senator's services will be higher than Drury can pay, especially for a rental; for another, after what happened last April, I doubt Drury wants to go down that yellow brick road again.

If Drury chooses to go for a center, Tyler Johnson of the Chicago Blackhawks could fill the bill. He was a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning when they won back-to-back Stanley Cups and has played with Goodrow, though on separate lines. He's a UFA after the season, so he'd also be a rental.

One thing everyone seems to be in agreement on is that Drury will be active this trade deadline. How active will depend on the negotiating skills of his fellow GMs and how much of a dick his owner wants to be.


Friday, February 9, 2024

Leon Rose Crushes It



Two years ago, New York Rangers President and GM Chris Drury added four players at the trade deadline that played an integral role in helping them advance to the Eastern Conference finals. It was, by far, the most aggressive trade deadline the organization had had since 1994, when then GM Neil Smith went for it all and imported Stephane Matteau, Brian Noonan, Glenn Anderson and Craig MacTavish to propel the team to its first Stanley Cup championship since 1940.

Since he was named President of the New York Knicks in March of 2020, Leon Rose has methodically transformed one of the most dysfunctional franchises in the NBA into a bonafide contender. Below is list of some of the moves he's made since taking over the reigns.

2020: Hires Tom Thibodeau as head coach. Knicks go 41-31, qualifying for the postseason for the first time since 2013.

2022: Makes three trades at the NBA Draft, dealing the rights to his own draft picks, moving out a bad contract, accumulating over $16 million in cap space and acquiring 11 first-round picks. Signs Jalen Brunson to a four-year, $104 million contract later that summer.

2023: Acquires Josh Hart from the Portland Trail Blazers at the trade deadline for Cam Reddish and a first-round pick. Both Brunson and Hart proved to be catalysts for a Knicks team that beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs. Signs Donte DiVincenzo to a four-year, $50 million contract over the summer. Trades R.J. Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and a second-round pick to the Toronto Raptors for OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn December 30.

2024: Acquires Bojan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks from the Detroit Pistons at the trade deadline for Flynn, Quintin Grimes, Evan Fournier, Ryan Arcidiacono and two second-round picks. The remarkable thing about this trade, and the one with Toronto, is that Rose didn't have give up a single first-round pick, meaning he still has all eleven of his first-rounders in case he wants to pull off a blockbuster trade in the summer. No other team in the league has this kind of draft capital at its disposal.

Just think about it: when healthy - Mitchell Robinson (ankle), Julius Randle (shoulder) and Anunoby (elbow) are currently injured and are not expected back until sometime in March - the Knicks roster will look like this:

Starters:
PG: Jalen Brunson
SG: Donte Divincenzo
SF: OG Anunoby
PF: Julius Randle
C:   Mitchell Robinson

Bench:
PG: Alec Burks
SG: Josh Hart
SF: Bojan Bogdanovic
PF: Precious Achiuwa
C:   Isaiah Hartenstein
F:   Jericho Sims
G:  Deuce McBride

On paper, this is arguably the deepest team in the NBA, and that includes the Boston Celtics. How many teams do you suppose can boast they have a 20 point scorer coming off their bench? They are a legitimate threat to go to the Eastern Conference finals, perhaps even the NBA finals. And it's all due to the diligence of a man who, thankfully, stuck to his guns and now stands to be rewarded for his patience.

It's been a very long time since the words competence and contender were associated with the New York Knicks. Usually, laughingstock and disappointment are the words most associated with them. Even now, I'm cautiously optimistic. What can I say? It's the cynic in me.

1973 was the last time this fanbase had something to celebrate. That was 51 years ago.

51 years is long enough!


Friday, February 2, 2024

Exploring Drury's Trade Deadline Options



With the news that the New York Rangers are shutting down Filip Chytil for the remainder of the season after the center had a significant setback during practice, we pretty much know how much cap space Chris Drury will have to work with at the trade deadline. And that amount is $5.2 million.

Not exactly a king's ransom, but more than enough to acquire two or three players depending on how creative Drury wants to get. And if history is any indication, creativity is a trait the Rangers President and General Manager has never lacked. If there's a way to improve this lineup going into the playoffs, you can bet the ranch Drury will do it.

Of course, there are those who openly question whether this team is worth investing any more future assets. Let's be honest, January was a brutal month. It wasn't just that the Rangers lost nine out of 14 games, it was the manner in which they lost some of those games: 6-1 to the Carolina Hurricanes, 6-3 the Vancouver Canucks, and 5-1 and 5-2 back-to-back to the Vegas Golden Knights. It should be noted that every one of those teams are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. The argument can certainly be made that it would be prudent for Drury to stand pat and regroup next season.

There are two reasons why that is highly unlikely. First, can you envision any scenario in which Drury, after firing Gerard Gallant for last season's playoff collapse, and then hiring Peter Laviolette to turns things around, goes to James Dolan and admits this team isn't good enough to win? I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Dolan's office when that conversation takes place. Remember, this is an owner who fired John Davidson and Jeff Gorton three years ago because he didn't like the way the Rangers were playing. And that team had zero expectations of making the playoffs, let alone winning the Cup. What do you think he'd do given the promises that were undoubtedly made over the summer? Drury has no choice but to go all in. In for a penny, in for a pound, right?

Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, despite their recent play, the Rangers are still in first place in the Metropolitan division. And that's important because, unlike the Atlantic, where there are four teams capable of going to the finals, in the Metro, the only team that poses a serious threat to the Blueshirts is the Carolina Hurricanes. The Philadelphia Flyers are finally fizzling out, as we thought they would; the Islanders, despite their work ethic, always seem to come up short regardless of who's behind the bench; the Devils can't seem to get out of their own way; the Pittsburgh Penguins, even with a rejuvenated Sidney Crosby, keep finding new ways to lose; and the Washington Capitals have run out of smoke and mirrors. Whether they finish first or second, the Rangers stand a pretty good chance of advancing to the Eastern Conference finals. Drury knows this; that's why you can expect him to be active this deadline.

But who to go after, that's the question. The Rangers most glaring needs are right wing and center. Kaapo Kakko and Blake Wheeler are clearly not working out on the first line. And the third line has needed a center ever since Chytil went down in November. Nick Bonino was supposed to be a checking center, and Jonny Brodzinski was supposed to be in Hartford. At least that was the plan. With Bonino waived, Drury needs to find a 1RW, a 3C and a 4C, all for $5 million. A tall order to be sure, but doable.

Two high-profile targets are off the board. Elias Lindholm was dealt to the Vancouver Canucks by the Calgary Flames for a combination of draft picks and players, while Sean Monahan was acquired by the Winnipeg Jets from the Montreal Canadiens for a first rounder and a conditional pick. Between the two, Monahan was having the better season. And with a modest $1.985m cap hit, he would've been an ideal fit for a team like the Rangers looking to fill multiple holes.

Now that he's gone, Drury will have to look elsewhere. And that elsewhere should be the Anaheim Ducks where he can kill two birds with one stone. Both Adam Henrique and Frank Vatrano are having good years, and both can be had for the right price. Collectively, their cap hit comes out to $9.475m, meaning the Ducks will have to retain some salary for it to work for the Rangers. That will drive up the cost.

Vatrano had a successful, if short, stint in New York two years ago playing on the Zibanejad line. He's a shoot first, as questions later, forward on a team that is still way too pass happy. And he's signed through next season, meaning he wouldn't just be a rental. Henrique is a veteran center who can score and wins face-offs. He'd be the perfect 3C. To get both, Drury would have to part with multiple draft picks, one of which would be a first rounder, and at least one prospect. Don't kid yourself: if Lindholm and Monahan fetched what they did, no way in hell the Ducks are giving up two players like Vatrano and Henrique for peanuts. When it comes to trade deadlines, typically it's a sellers market.

If the asking price for Vatrano and Henrique proves too rich for Drury's blood, he can always split the baby. Maybe Vatrano for Kakko straight up and Boone Jenner from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Brodzinski and a conditional first rounder. Jenner scored 26 goals for the Jackets last season, and like Vatrano, he's signed beyond this season so he wouldn't be a rental. And with a cap hit of $3.75m, he doesn't break the bank.

Another possible target for Drury would be Yanni Gourde of the Seattle Kraken. The former Tampa Bay Lightning center was a fixture on those two Stanley Cup winning teams and played alongside Barclay Goodrow. It's well known that since he was promoted to President and GM of the Rangers, Drury has wanted to create a bonafide checking line. He coveted Phillip Danault, and was actively looking to sign the former Canadien before he chose the L.A. Kings. With the Kraken only two points out of the last Wild Card in the West, it's doubtful Ron Francis will want to trade Gourde.

Bottom line, there's plenty of items still left on the menu for Drury to consider.