Rangers Pony Up To Keep Stepan

In the end, the Rangers didn't have any other choice. They couldn't afford to let their number one center go to arbitration only to save, what, a couple hundred thousand dollars. So they bit down hard, went all in and signed Derek Stepan to a six-year deal worth $39 million. That's $6.5 million per year. The deal also comes with a no-movement clause, which means, barring Stepan taking an oozie into the Garden and airing the joint out, he's not going anywhere.

Of course the key question begging to be answered is this: Is Stepan worth the money? The answer is yes and no. Yes, because, with the exception of Derick Brassard, there was no one else on the roster capable of putting up the numbers Stepan did last year and pretty much has for his entire tenure with the Blueshirts. Face it, with Marty St. Louis retiring after last year's aborted playoff run, goals are going to be a premium this coming season. Kevin Hayes, Jesper Fast and J.T. Miller may turn out to be excellent scorers, or they could be busts, or something in between. No one knows for sure. Losing Stepan or, worse, having an unhappy Stepan would have been disastrous, especially given that the window for this team is at best two years.

No, because he isn't really a number one center not in the strictest sense of what a number one center means. He's not as valuable as Jonathan Toews, who just signed his own multi-year contract with the Blackhawks for the same amount of money. Seriously, who would you rather have as your number one, Stepan or Toews? The fact is when you compare Derek Stepan to other contending teams' top centers, he comes up short. Good, yes; great, no.

Over his relatively brief career with the Rangers, Stepan has been a reliable scorer. But his two biggest handicaps are his lack of size and his inability to win face-offs; the latter proving far more costly, especially for a team that thrives on puck possession the way the Rangers do. It was nothing short of embarrassing that the number one face-off man was the number four center, Dominic Moore.

Indeed that is one glaring weakness which new General Manager Jeff Gorton failed to address. Sadly, the Rangers will enter this coming campaign a weaker team than they were when they were unceremoniously booted from last year's playoffs. Why? Because Gorton only has $500 thousand of cap space left to his disposal. And, mind you, that was after he was forced to dump Carl Hagelin's contract in exchange for Emerson Etem's.

Realistically, the Rangers are going to have a hard time coming close to matching what they did last year. They are no-where near as deep as they were two years ago when they went to the finals and it is hard to see them winning the division with this squad, much less the Presidents' Trophy or Stanley Cup championship. They still have an imposing defense corps, but they could use some help up front. If Gorton could dangle one of his prized defensemen - say, Dan Girardi or Kevin Klein - for a proven goal scorer with some grit, that could mean the difference between an early playoff exit or a deep playoff run.

Stanley Cup Conference Finals Predictions

Only four teams are left standing. Two weeks from now, it will be two. This weekend, the Eastern and Western conference finals begin. In the East, the Rangers face-off against the Tampa Bay Lightning. In the West, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks and Chicago Blackhawks duke it out. Which two teams will prevail and why?

Well, at the risk of sounding my own horn, two of the teams I picked before the playoffs began - the Rangers and Blackhawks - are still standing. Why? Simple, both teams have the best goaltending in the tournament. That's also the reason I'm picking them to move on to the finals.

Eastern Conference Finals: Rangers vs. Lightning.

The Lightning are loaded upfront. What makes them scary is that their best forward - Steven Stamkos - isn't even on their best line. They're young, fast and explosive and they will give the Rangers all they can handle. And, no doubt, Ryan Callahan and Brian Boyle will be out to prove that Glen Sather made a mistake by letting them go.

But while they may be front loaded, the Blueshirts are still a deeper team, even without Mats Zuccarello. And then there's the defensive pairings and goaltending which heavily favor New York. Henrik Lundqvist hasn't had a bad game in the playoffs, while his counterpart - Ben Bishop - has been lit up twice. He's good, but hardly world class. In what will likely be a low-scoring and tight-checking series, the Rangers should be favored, even if only slightly.

The Lightning went 3-0 against the Rangers this season, but those games were played early in the season before New York went on their Presidents' Trophy run. They're a much different and better team now.

Prediction: Rangers in seven.

Western Conference Finals: Ducks vs. Blackhawks.

Okay, I admit it. I didn't think the Ducks were this good. In fact, I had them bowing out in the second round. But while Anaheim has managed to go 8-1 this postseason, they've done so against two pretty mediocre teams. Chicago is anything but mediocre. In fact, they're arguably the best team in the tournament.

The Ducks have the two best centers in the playoffs and can skate with anyone. But I've watched them and their Achilles heal is clearly in goal, where Frederik Andersen has been erratic and VERY beatable. If Corey Crawford lives up to his billing, this series could get out of hand quickly.

Prediction: Blackhawks in six. 

NHL Playoff Predictions

A word of caution here, my track record at predicting championship teams is suspect at best. A couple years ago, I picked the Giants to win the Super Bowl. They ended up having one of their worst seasons in over a decade.

Still, I figure I can't be any worse than some of the predictions of the so-called experts. And, besides, I have a horse in this derby. For the first time since 1994, the Rangers are a favorite to win the Stanley Cup.

First off, I'm going with the teams that have the best goaltending. Why? Because they usually win. The last five Cup winners all had goaltenders who were among the NHL's best. Jonathan Quick (2014 & 2012), Corey Crawford (2013 & 2010) and Tuukka Rask (2011). Without those goalies in net, it is doubtful any of them would've made it passed the second round.

Second, I'm going with teams that have depth. If you don't have more than one scoring line, your odds of advancing to the finals, much less winning the Cup, are slim to none.

I'll go with the Eastern Conference first, followed by the Western and ending with the Cup finals, then let the chips fall where they may.


Eastern Conference Quarterfinals 

Rangers vs. Penguins. The only way the Blueshirts don't win this series is if they take the Penguins too lightly. Rangers have huge edge in both goal and defense. Prediction: Rangers in five.

Islanders vs. Capitals: The smart money is on the Caps. I'm going with the team with better depth. Even with Ovechkin, Caps don't measure up. Prediction: Isles in seven.

Canadiens vs. Senators: Carey Price is lightyears ahead of Andrew Hammond. Montreal was one of the best kept secrets in the NHL this year. Prediction: Canadiens in five.

Lightning vs. Redwings: Tampa has it all: youth, depth and scoring. Things could get ugly fast in Motown. Prediction: Lightning in four.

Eastern Conference Semifinals

Rangers vs. Islanders: This one will be a barn burner. Speed of Blueshirts vs. size of Isles. Lundqvist will prove the difference: Prediction: Rangers in six.

Canadiens vs. Lightning: Last year, the Habs swept Tampa. Not this time. This one will go to the wire. Prediction: Canadiens in seven.

Eastern Conference Finals

Rangers vs. Canadiens: Last year's conference finalists lock skates again. A healthy Price will go toe to toe with Lundqvist. Don't be surprised if the series is decided in overtime. Prediction: Rangers in seven.

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Western Conference Quarterfinals

Blues vs. Wild: Early exits were the norm in St. Louis. Not this time. This might be best Blues team we've seen in years. Prediction: Blues in six.

Predators vs. Blackhawks: With or without Patrick Kane, Chicago was the favorite. With him it won't even be close. Prediction: Blackhawks in five.

Ducks vs. Jets: Boy did the Ducks ever catch a break here. No L.A. Kings and a weak wildcard opponent. They'll prevail, but barely. Prediction: Ducks in seven.

Flames vs. Canucks: This might turn out to be the most competitive series in round one. Flames making their first playoff appearance since 2009. It'll go the distance. Prediction: Flames in seven.

Western Conference Semifinals

Ducks vs. Flames: Here's where midnight strikes for weak Anaheim. This won't even be close. Prediction: Flames in five.

Blues vs. Blackhawks: A shame these two teams had to meet in this round. They deserved better. The winner will go to finals. Prediction: Blackhawks in seven.

Western Conference Finals

Blackhawks vs. Flames: It was quite a run for Calgary, but the run ends here. Blackhawks too deep and Crawford too good. Prediction: Blackhawks in five.

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Stanley Cup Finals

Rangers vs. Blackhawks: Two original six teams meeting for the Cup. Hockey the way it was meant to be. Two great goaltenders go at it.  Superior speed of Blueshirts will prove the difference. Prediction: Rangers in seven with Lundqvist winning Conn Smyth.

Well, there you have it. My two cents worth. As per usual, I wouldn't bet the ranch on it. Just know that if the Rangers don't go all the way, I plan on being one unhappy camper.