Gary Bettman's Potential Early Christmas Present

NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman's announcement, following a board of governors meeting in New York, that the salary cap might go up to $86.5 million instead of the expected $83.5 million came as welcomed news to every general manager and player agent in the sport.

"We believe that there is a good probability that the escrow will be paid off this season. It may not be, but it’s going to be close we think, which means the flat cap will be replaced by a bigger increase. Revenue is pretty vibrant. We probably did $5.4 billion in [hockey-related revenues] this past season, which is actually about a half a billion more than we projected a year ago when we were starting things up. Things are good."

For those who haven't been paying attention - and from what I've seen on Twitter, that appears to be a rather large contingent of fans - the league has been operating under a flat cap since the 2019-20 season was paused due to the Covid-19 pandemic. At the time, the salary cap was $81.5 million, and to make sure the cap wasn't reduced, the NHLPA agreed to have part of their players salaries placed into an escrow account. The understanding being that once that balance was paid off, the cap would resume its pre-pandemic trajectory. Initially, that was supposed to be at the conclusion of the 2023-24 season. That timeline has now been accelerated by one season.

It cannot be overstated just how significant this development is. Notwithstanding the financial losses the league suffered, many teams are literally staring at cap hell, both this season and next. A look at some of the moves GMs were forced to make over the past two summers underscores just how difficult it's been to build and retain a core of players. Many teams were unable to field a full roster of 23 players this season because they simply don't have the cap space. The Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche couldn't re-sign their number two center Nazem Kadri over the summer because they would've been over the cap. He subsequently signed with the Calgary Flames. Imagine if the Avs had an extra $3 million in the kitty.

Closer to home, Chris Drury is facing something of a quandary himself. At the conclusion of this season, Alexis Lafreniere, K'Andre Miller and Filip Chytil are all RFAs. At present, the Rangers, after waiving Dryden Hunt - or as Ranger Twitter has referred to him, the second coming of Rick Middleton - have just over $900k in cap space. That translates to about $4 million in deadline cap space for Drury to shop around for reinforcements at the trade deadline.

Assuming there are no additional buyouts this offseason, the Rangers will get $3.4 million in dead cap space off the books. Every cent of that money, and then some, will go to re-signing either Lafreniere or Miller, leaving Drury with some tough choices about which players to trade or let go. Even with the expected additional $1 million in salary cap and the expiration of Ryan Reaves' $1.75 million contract, there just isn't enough room at the inn to keep the band together. Imagine going through the pains of a rebuild and not being able to see it all the way through.

Now if all goes according to plan, Drury might be able to have his cake and eat it too. With a salary cap at $86.5 million, the Rangers would be able to keep Lafreniere, Miller and Chytil, provided they can get at least one of them - preferably Chytil - into a bridge deal. Below is what a potential 2023-24 roster could look like:

2023-24 Salary Cap

$86,500,000.00

Forwards
Panarin	$11,642,857.00
Zibanejad	$8,500,000.00
Kreider	$6,500,000.00
Trocheck	$5,625,000.00
Lafreniere	$5,000,000.00
Chytil	$3,750,000.00
Goodrow	$3,641,667.00
Kakko	$2,100,000.00
Blais	$1,525,000.00
Othmann	$894,167.00
Korczak	$859,167.00
Cuylle	$828,333.00
Rydahl	$800,000.00

Total  $51,666,191.00

Defensemen
Fox	$9,500,000.00
Trouba	$8,000,000.00
Miller	$4,000,000.00
Lindgren	$3,000,000.00
Jones	$1,200,000.00
Schneider	$925,000.00

Total

$26,625,000.00

Goalies
Gerand	$828,333.00
Shesterkin	$5,666,667.00

Total

$6,495,000.00

Total Cap Hit	$84,786,191.00
CAP SPACE	$1,713,809.00

As you'll note, I have Blais returning next year for the same salary he's making now and both Othmann and Cuylle making the team. Also, I have Gerand as the backup to Igor. I assume Drury will include Vitali Kravtsov in a deadline deal for either Patrick Kane or someone with a similar skill set. The bottom line is that under the higher cap, the Rangers would be able to retain not only their core but their young studs as well for the foreseeable future.

Of course, none of this is etched in stone. Knowing the NHL's penchant for disappointing their fans, it's entirely possible that the escrow might not be fully paid off by the end of the season. In that event, Bettman has made it clear that the cap will only go up $1 million to $83.5. And if that's the case, GM's like Drury will have to, once more, make lemonade out of lemons.

How To Save the NHL Season

According to ESPN, there are currently 70 NHL players - roughly 10 percent of the league - who are in Covid protocol. Given the way the new Omicron variant is spreading throughout both the U.S. and Canada, that number is expected to rise, if not double, within the next few days.

Breakout infections have forced the Calgary Flames, Nashville Predators, Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche and Florida Panthers to shutdown operations until after Christmas. There have been calls for a league-wide pause through the holidays. In some Canadian cities, attendance at arenas has been restricted to 50 percent capacity. Montreal went so far as to bar all fans from the Bell Centre during a recent game between the Canadiens and the Flyers.

In response to the situation, the league, in conjunction with the Player's Association, agreed to the following changes in its Covid protocol:

• All players will be subjected to daily testing.
• Masks will be worn by all players, coaches and trainers at club facilities.
• While on the road, social distancing must be maintained during team meals.
• There will be no indoor eating or drinking in restaurants or bars open to the public.

While all these measures are laudable, they are unlikely to be successful. Indeed, daily testing will all but guarantee that the number of positive results will rise precipitously. And as for a league-wide pause, this is the worst time of year to do something like that. Sending 700 players home for the holidays to mingle with family and friends would be like pouring lighter fluid on a fire.

So what should Gary Bettman, et al do?

Fortunately, the NHL doesn't have to look very far. The NFL has already provided them, and the NBA, with a template. Faced with their own outbreaks that have decimated teams and forced the postponement of several games this weekend, league officials came up with a solution they believe will save the season and the playoffs.

• All unvaccinated players will continue to get tested daily, and if they test positive will be quarantined.
• Vaccinated players who are symptomatic will be isolated and tested immediately, and if they test positive will be quarantined.
• Vaccinated players who are asymptomatic will not undergo mandatory testing.
• High-risk players may opt out of the rest of the season, including the playoffs.

I would also add the following to this list:

• The Beijing Olympics are off as far as player participation is concerned, and the All-star game will be canceled. The league will use the three weeks in February to make-up the games that were postponed.
• All players and team personnel who are eligible to receive booster shots will be required to get them.

Now before you accuse me of being part of the anti-vaxxer mob, let me just say up front that the reason we are in this predicament is because roughly one third of the country has refused to do the right thing. The simple truth is that had every single person who was able to get vaccinated done so, we'd be close to, if not at, herd immunity, and we would not now be seeing the rash of Covid infections that have forced every professional sports league to postpone games. When historians sit down to write this chapter in American history, there will be a lot of head scratching and references to Ripley's Believe It or Not.

But here's the thing: the overwhelming majority of players in pro sports are fully vaccinated; in the NHL, only one player - Tyler Bertuzzi - is unvaccinated. The majority of players who have tested positive are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. One player on the Maple Leafs reported having fever, chills and body aches. Compared to the population at large, the NHL is a virtual panacea. While eliminating mandatory testing would no doubt spread the virus even more than it is currently spreading, there are steps the league can take - such as mandatory masks and social distancing - to mitigate the risk to the players.

I seriously don't see anyway that sports as we know it can continue to move forward unless a sense of pragmatism is adopted. Daily testing and pausing the schedule simply will not cut it. Each variant that comes along appears to be more transmissible than the previous one, and while the jury's still out as to whether Omicron leads to milder or worse illness, what we do know is this: fully vaccinated people with booster shots fare much better.

Bottom line: protect the players as much as possible, but let them play. If the league needs to impose additional restrictions in order to protect its staff and the fans, it can do so while not compromising the integrity of the games. To require a team to play with as much as one third of its roster in Covid protocol is simply unacceptable, especially when, as stated above, the majority of those players are asymptomatic. And it's a slap in the face to the loyal fans who pay good money to attend the games.

P.S., the NHL announced on Sunday that all games involving cross-border travel have been suspended until after the Christmas break, including Wednesday's game between the Rangers and Canadiens at the Garden.

Dissecting What's Wrong With the Islanders

There have been a number of surprises in the NHL so far this season; some pleasant, some not so pleasant. Two of the more pleasant surprises have been the Minnesota Wild and the Calgary Flames. Both are leading their respective divisions; the former with the second-best offense in the league and the latter with the stingiest defense. The Flames might be the biggest surprise of all; last season in a realigned North Division, they couldn't even beat out a Montreal Canadiens team that had no business being in the playoffs. As things stand now, they are the early odds-on favorite to emerge from the Western Conference.

Heading up the not so pleasant surprises are the New York Islanders, a team that last season was five wins away from hoisting the Stanley Cup, and the year before fell six games short. As of this writing, they are tied with the Canadiens for the third fewest points in the league with 15; only the Ottawa Senators (13) and the Arizona Coyotes (12) have fewer.

Many have speculated as to what happened to this team. After careful consideration, I have come up with three things:

1. The early schedule. There's no getting around it. Opening up with thirteen straight road games to start the season was a tactical blunder. The moment management - and by management, I mean Lou Lamoriello - knew that UBS Arena was not going to be ready in time for the beginning of the 2021-22 season, there should've been a backup plan in place. You can't tell me that Lamoriello couldn't have arranged to play a couple of games at the Barclay Center or the Nassau Coliseum until UBS was ready. Forcing this team to play away from home for a month took its toll on the players. At one point, they were 5-2-2; then the roof caved in on them. Inexcusable.

2. The injury bug and Covid outbreak. As if the road trip from hell wasn't bad enough, the injury bug bit them, and right after that a Covid outbreak hit. When they finally did open their season at UBS, almost half the roster was either on IR or in quarantine. Not even the deepest of teams can overcome that many players being out of the lineup. In all fairness, the league should've postponed their games against the Maple Leafs, Rangers and Penguins. They looked like a minor league team out there against those opponents.

3. The offense has been MIA. Even before the start of their eleven game skid, the Isles were hardly an offensive juggernaut. Over their first nine games, they scored 25 goals, an average of 2.8 goals per game. Indeed, during the Lamoriello / Barry Trotz reign, this team has consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in goals for while finishing near the top in goals against. The problem with relying on a formula that puts so much emphasis on defense at the expense of offense is that your margin for error is already slim. During this losing streak, they scored a paltry 13 goals. That's an average of 1.2 goals per game. No matter how good your defense is - they currently rank 6th in the league - you still need to put the puck in the net in order to win. Players like Matt Barzal, Brock Nelson and Anders Lee are simply not good enough to carry this team. Anywhere else, they'd be second or third liners, at best.

Throughout his long and brilliant career, Lou Lamoriello has eschewed stars for underachievers who were willing to check their egos at the door for the good of the team. When he ran the New Jersey Devils, his teams specialized in employing the trap, one of the most boring systems ever thrust upon the NHL. It led to five finals appearances, three Cup championships and universal scorn from more talented teams who were often frustrated by the discipline Lou's players exhibited.

Since Lamoriello and Trotz arrived on the Island, no team in the NHL has been more difficult to play against than the Islanders. Their patience and brand of physicality are tailored made for deep playoff runs that over the last two years damn near paid off. So successful was their strategy, I picked them to win the Stanley Cup this season.

But the rash of injuries and Covid cases has exposed a fatal flaw in Lamoriello's method of madness. At a time when the team desperately could've used an elite player or two to carry them through this period, the plethora of gritty players he has assembled have been badly overmatched. When you live by the sword, you sometimes die by it. And right now, this team is hemorrhaging.

However, it's still early in the season. This team should be back to full strength before Christmas. If they can get back to the .500 mark by the end of December, there's still a chance they can sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard. And if they do sneak in, they will be very difficult to beat.

How difficult? Just ask the Tampa Bay Lightning, who needed all seven games in last year's semifinals to dispatch them, what it's like to play against the Islanders. Or the Boston Bruins, who got the shit kicked out of them in last year's quarterfinals. The only thing harder than losing to the Islanders, is beating them. Of the last four games they lost, all were by one goal, three in overtime. Does anyone think for a moment that with a healthy lineup those couldn't have been wins?

They have the goaltending, they have the defense. The only thing that might trip them up is that they happen to play in the Metropolitan Division, the best division in hockey, and they've already lost a lot of ground. If they don't turn this thing around soon, they will eventually run out of time.

But if I were a betting man, I wouldn't place any significant amount of money on that happening.