Welcome to the New York Brewers

It's hard to believe that a year ago this month, the Mets, fresh off an NLCS appearance against the Dodgers, signed the top free agent of the offseason, and arguably the best player in baseball, Juan Soto, to a 15 year, $765 million contract. Steve Cohen could've run for mayor and he would've won in a landslide. The Flushing Faithful had visions of a parade down the Canyon of Heroes dancing in their heads.

What a difference a year makes. After jumping out to a huge lead in the National League East in mid-June, the Amazins slowly imploded over the last three and half months of the season. Not only did they not win the World Series, they didn't even qualify for the playoffs. A Mets team with a $342 million payroll lost out to a Cincinnati Reds team with a $119 million payroll.

David Stearns, the man hired by Cohen to run the organization, quickly went to work. On November 23, he traded outfielder Brandon Nimmo to the Texas Rangers for second baseman Marcus Semien. So far, so good. While Nimmo was a fan favorite, as I wrote at the time, he was hardly Ted Williams. Semien may have had an off year in '25, but he is generally viewed as an outstanding fielder who will solidify the Mets infield. Stearns apparently meant it when he said he would focus on "run prevention."

Next, Stearns signed Devin Williams - another ex-Yankee - to a three-year, $51 million contract. While Williams struggled in the Bronx, he had three very good years in Milwaukee. As a set-up man to Edwin Diaz, the Mets would finally have what they'd been looking for since the days of Orosco and McDowell: a devastating one-two punch at the back of the bullpen.

The off-season was shaping up very nicely. Mets fans eagerly anticipated the Winter meetings where the expectation was that Stearns - with the aid of Cohen's checkbook - would trade for Tarik Skubal and sign either Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. No one, and I mean no one, was prepared for what happened next.

It began on December 9, when the Dodgers signed Diaz to a three-year, $69 million contract. Losing Diaz to the team that had beaten them in '24 was bad enough, but losing him over what amounted to $3 million over three years left a very bad taste in the mouths of every fan. As I wrote at the time, this was an epic failure for the organization.

But what followed the very next day shook the Flushing Faithful to their core. Pete Alonso, the franchise home-run king, who, like Diaz, had opted out of his contract, was signed by the Baltimore Orioles to a five-year, $155 million deal. Adding insult to injury was the revelation that the Mets didn't even bother to make the Polar Bear an offer. All we know for certain is that Stearns wasn't willing to go more than three years.

For the last couple of days I've been trying to wrap my head around what happened. I've gone from shock to anger to frustration and finally to profound sadness. The team that was two wins away from going to the World Series in '24 is now being broken up and there's not a damn thing I, or any other Mets fan, can do about it. Yes, they severely underachieved last year, but typically rosters that underachieve are bolstered, not split apart.

Let's get something straight: this was not an accident; it was deliberate. Nor was it about run prevention. If it were, would the Mets have allowed their best run preventer to walk for a measly $1m per year? No, what this was about was transforming a franchise that in 2025 paid almost $80 million in luxury tax for a team that won 83 games. If you want to know what Stearns' vision for the Mets is, go to Spotrac and take a gander at the Milwaukee Brewers 2025 payroll. Now add $61.8 million - the exact amount Soto will make next season - $19 million in retained salaries for Frankie Montas and Nimmo, plus another $20 million and you have next year's payroll for the Mets. That's right folks: $238 million, $6 million below the tax threshold for 2026.

That means no Skubal, no Tucker, no Bellinger and no Robert Suarez, who signed with the Atlanta Braves for three years, $45 million. For the foreseeable future Dollar Store Dave will continue to shop for bargains and team-friendly contracts. Don't be surprised if Paul Goldschmidt ends up replacing Alonso at first base next season. As for the starting rotation: Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat will be given every chance to make it. 

Why? That's the sixty-four thousand dollar question. Why would an organization owned by a multi-billionaire suddenly get so tight with its money? Circle this date on your calendar: December 1, 2026. That's when the current CBA between the owners and the players expires.

Over the last 53 years there have been eight labor disputes: four players strikes and four owners lockouts. The most damaging of these disputes occurred in 1994 when the players went on strike over a proposed salary cap by the owners. That resulted in the cancellation of the World Series for the first time since 1904. It would take major league baseball several years to recover from the damage to its reputation. 

I believe we are headed towards another work stoppage, only this time I think the owners are serious about implementing some kind of cap. Maybe not as severe and exacting as the one the NHL adopted after its successful lockout in 2005; but perhaps something along the lines of the apron system currently employed by the NBA.

Unlike '94, however, most of these owners have the financial wherewithal to withstand a long work stoppage, meaning we could be looking at a year or more of no baseball. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the players went on strike sometime in the late summer if they think the owners are going to lock them out in December.

If the owners are successful in implementing their cap, any team above that cap when play resumes will either have to shed salary or face severe penalties; and by penalties I don't mean paying a luxury tax. Now you know why Cohen went from Daddy Warbucks to Scrooge in just a few days. You don't have to shed what you don't have. Which makes you wonder why he went after Soto in the first place. Imagine what the Mets could've done with that money.

Bottom line: Stearns hasn't gone rogue; he's doing this at the behest of his employer. 

Welcome to the New York Brewers, people. Get used to it.