We've seen this movie all too often throughout the season. It's a familiar pattern. The Rangers go on a hot streak and torch a few, shall we say, lower echelon teams, which gives fans hope that this rebuild, which started three years ago, is now on the verge of producing tangible fruit. Then they get shut down by a top-caliber playoff team and just like that, the air is let out of the balloon. As Robin Williams used to say, "Reality, what a concept."
After Sunday's drubbing of the Buffalo Sabres, the Blueshirts have the sixth best goals for and against differential in the NHL at plus 33. Their 164 goals are third best in the league; only the Capitals and Penguins have scored more. They are also the only team to have five players with 40 points or more. Their penalty killing is sixth best and they lead the league in short-handed goals. All very impressive stats.
And yet even with all that, this team is still four points behind the Boston Bruins for the last playoff spot in the East Division, with the Bruins having two games at hand. And their 56 points ranks as only 14th best out of 31 teams in the league. That is most certainly NOT very impressive.
So what can we surmise from these two sets of conflicting data? Simply put, the Rangers are two very different teams depending on the opposition. Against opponents that don't cover their own zone very well or prefer to play a wide open brand of hockey, the Rangers do extremely well. Their east/west style of play, so reminiscent of those free-wheeling '80s teams, allows them to generate scoring opportunities that lesser-skilled teams simply cannot compete with. Witness what they did to the Philadelphia Flyers and New Jersey Devils, two teams that are to defense what Napoleon was to height. Twice, the Rangers routed the Flyers (9-0 and 8-3), and against the Devils, they swept a recent four-game series in which they did not trail for a single second.
But against the Islanders, Capitals, Bruins and Penguins, teams that are considerably more disciplined in their own end and tend to employ a north/south brand of hockey, the Rangers have had a tough time generating offense. Stars like Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin, deprived of their ability to create off the rush, are reduced to virtual non-factors. For example, so far this season, Zibanejad has scored three hat tricks. The first two came against the Flyers in the above-mentioned routs; the third came against the Sabres this past Sunday. Take away those 9 goals and Zibanejad has a grand total of just 10 goals in 46 games. That comes out to about 18 goals over the course of a full season. And keep in mind, eight of those 46 games were against the Devils, a team they've beaten six times.
Conclusion? This is very talented team with serious flaws that must be addressed in the offseason if it is ever going to become a playoff team, much less a contender. Yes, there are a lot of rookie and second-year players on the roster, but that shouldn't be an excuse. Adam Fox and K'Andre Miller are not the problem here. Nor is Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere. Fox is having a Norris-trophy type season, Miller is fast becoming a dependable defenseman, and Kakko and Lafreniere are improving with each game.
No, it is the core of this team that is the main problem. In short, the stars just aren't pulling their weight. In addition to the issues Zibanejad and Panarin have against tight-checking teams, Chris Kreider is a 210 pound player who plays more like a 170 pounder, which has rightfully earned him a demotion to the third line. Filip Chytil, now in his third season, has yet to blossom into the top-six forward the Rangers were hoping he'd be. And while Ryan Strome has done a good job centering Panarin, he too has a habit of disappearing in big games. Plus next season is his walk year.
With so many red flags, you'd think Jeff Gorton and John Davidson would've gotten the memo by now. Yet every indication is that they don't think there's anything all that wrong, at least not with the forwards anyway. The defense, well that's another matter.
Larry Brooks of The New York Post is reporting that during the offseason the Rangers made an offer to 43 year-old Zdeno Chara. According to Brooks, it was serious enough that they were "in the hunt until the last minute" before Chara finally decided to sign with the Capitals. Granted, Gorton had no way of knowing that Miller would develop so quickly, but the move reveals both his and the organization's thinking. And that thinking is deeply concerning.
Because this team, even with all its flaws, is still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, and the fear is that coach David Quinn will keep playing the same horses that have consistently come up short in the crunch. Meanwhile, Morgan Barron, a center who had a good year in Hartford and is 220 pounds, still hasn't been called up. Julien Gauthier, a 230 pound winger, hasn't played in weeks because for some strange reason Quinn is still in love with Brett Howden, despite the fact that Howden has a whopping one goal and six assists this season.
There's no other way to put this. Quinn is making a tactical error that may help him in the short run but will come back to bite him in the long run. What he and Gorton should be doing with the remaining games this season is to find out what they have in the cupboard. Barron and Gauthier should be in the lineup and given significant ice time. Vitali Kravtsov should be paired alongside Panarin to see whether he is the real deal. And it is time to find out if Kakko was worth the second overall pick two years ago.
If I were in charge I'd set my lines up this way:
Forward Line One: Lafreniere, Zibanejad, Kakko
Forward Line Two: Panarin, Chytil, Kravtsov
Forward Line Three: Kreider, Strome, Buchnevich
Forward Line Four: Rooney, Barron, Gauthier
Defense Pairing One: Miller, Trouba
Defense Pairing Two: Jones, Fox
Defense Pairing Three: Lindgren, Smith
By moving Lafreniere, Kakko, Chytil and Kravtsov up to the top six, the Rangers will be able to evaluate who will be the odd-man out during the offseason. And make no mistake about it: not all of these forwards are going to be here next season. One or more may be dangled in a trade to get the help this team needs. It is essential that Gorton and Davidson make an "informed" decision before pulling the trigger. What the organization can't afford to do after going through this rebuild process is to have the player or players they give up come back and haunt them for the next decade. It's been 45 years since Rick Middleton was given away for Ken Hodge and 34 years since Mike Ridley and Kelly Miller were sent packing for Bobby Carpenter. Rangers' fans still haven't forgiven the team for those colossal blunders. Some wounds never heal. The goal should be no more blunders.
On defense, Zac Jones has looked real good so far and has even gotten some time on the second power-play unit. He picked up his first assist against the Sabres, Sunday. Pairing him with Fox makes sense. The more ice time this kid gets the better he'll become. And let's not forget that Braden Schneider - all 200 pounds of him - is waiting in the wings. Imagine a one-two punch of Trouba on one defense pairing and Schneider on the next. Not bad. Trust me, defense is the last thing management should be concerned about. They're loaded.
The bottom line is this: The Rangers are not a playoff team. Despite some flashes of brilliance, the sauce isn't quite cooked enough. What management should be doing is getting all their cards lined up so they know whether they have a full house or a pair of duces.
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