Tuesday, January 30, 2024

A Bridges Too Far?



While we still don't know the full extent of Julius Randle's right shoulder injury, it does appear as if the New York Knicks may have dodged a bullet. Preliminary test results do not show a tear, which would require season-ending surgery for the all-star forward. That means Randle will likely miss several weeks instead of months.

And while Knicks fans were breathing a collective sigh of relief over the encouraging news, Randle's teammates were taking care of business in Charlotte, beating the Hornets 113-92. The Knicks are now 13-2 in the month of January. The trade that sent RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and a second round pick to the Toronto Raptors for OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn has transformed the Knicks into a force to be reckoned with. Not only have they feasted on teams with losing records - 20-0 after last night's win - they have beaten the likes of the Minnesota Timberwolves, Philadelphia 76ers, last season's NBA champion Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat. It should be noted that the Denver win was a blowout.

In my last piece, I wrote that the Knicks, as good as they are, still need a third option; that one player that could catapult them from competitor status to contender status. Initially, I thought Dejounte Murray might be that player. The Atlanta Hawk would give New York its most talented backcourt since 1972-73, the last year they won a championship. However, it appears as though Leon Rose doesn't want to give up the assets needed to land the shooting guard.

Names like Malcolm Brogdon and Bruce Brown have been tossed around as possible trade targets. Both players would bolster a bench that had been depleted in the Toronto deal, but neither would move the needle much. With the trade deadline only a few days away, and Rose sitting on eleven first round draft picks, seven of which belong to him, it's beginning to look more and more like if a trade does happen it will take place in the offseason.

Then, as if on cue, a proposed trade popped up on social media that was so wild I had to do a double take when I saw it. The Brooklyn Nets send Mikal Bridges to the Knicks for Quentin Grimes, Evan Fournier and five first round draft picks.

Let's put aside for the moment the total number of draft picks going to the Nets, which is considerable, given that Rose was reluctant to give up two number ones to Atlanta for Murray. And let's also put aside the fact that Bridges was part of that Villanova Wildcats team that won the NCAA championship in 2018 along with Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo, both of whom are Knicks. The fact is Bridges has been a small forward most of his NBA career, except for a small stint last season after the Nets acquired him in the Kevin Durant trade. There's no telling how he would handle the move back to guard. 

Then there's DiVencenzo. He was just starting to come into his own as a starter. The arrival of Bridges would relegate him to the bench. How would that affect him? Further, how would that affect the team as a whole? A team that is about as tight and cohesive as any Knicks team I've seen since the Pat Riley days. We've already seen how adding a star onto a roster can have unintended consequences. The Heat are 0-4 since they traded for Terry Rozier.

Look, there's no denying the talent Bridges would bring to the Knicks. And with Randle returning sometime in March, they could be the prohibitive favorites to win the Eastern Conference, perhaps the whole enchilada. One thing is certain: with Tom Thibodeau coaching them, regardless of what happens at the deadline, this will be one tough team to play against in the postseason.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves here. Like most proposed trades, they tend to fizzle out within a day or two. I seriously doubt Rose will part with that many first round picks, even for someone as gifted as Bridges. But it's always nice to dream, especially for a fanbase that's gotten used to having nightmares the better part of the last two decades.



Thursday, January 18, 2024

Knicks Still Need a Third Option


After nine games, the verdict is in: The trade with the Toronto Raptors that brought OG Anunoby to the New York Knicks is an unqualified success. Not only have they've gone 7-2 over that stretch, they've gone from being one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA to one of the best. If there's such a thing as a secret sauce, Anunoby would be it.

And yet as good as this Knicks team has played, you can tell there's still something missing. Yes, their work ethic is beyond reproach. And, yes, to paraphrase Mr. T., "I pity the team that has to play them in the postseason." As things stand now, they would give the Philadelphia 76ers a run for their money. Hell, they might even beat them. But against the Milwaukee Bucks or the Boston Celtics, it would be game, set and match. Anybody that doubts that hasn't seen enough basketball games.

That's because for all their grit, they don't have quite enough polish. Every team that plays against them knows who's going to get the ball: it's either going to be Julius Randle or Jalen Brunson. That's about it. Oh, OG will get his points, as will Donte DiVencenzo and Josh Hart. But come crunch time, the game is in the hands of the dynamic duo.

The fact is that without a genuine third scoring option, the Knicks will continue to be outmanned and outgunned against the elite teams in this league. This isn't the NHL, where you can effectively "neutralize" the other team's best players. In Adam Silver's NBA, the cream always rises to the top. This is one professional sports league that knows how to showcase its talent.

And that's why Leon Rose needs to pull the trigger on the one deal that would catapult this team into a bonfire contender. He has enough first round draft picks to populate an entire roster. Sitting on them is not a viable option. In an earlier piece last month, I wrote that maybe Lauri Markkanen of the Utah Jazz might be available. But the more I think about it, the more it seems unlikely that Danny Ainge would part with the centerpiece of the Donavan Mitchell trade, especially for just draft picks.

I then posited that Rose would do well to turn his sights south to Atlanta where the Hawks are clearly in rebuild mode. Dejounte Murray is on the trading block. Everyone on this side of the Milly Way Galaxy knows it. For the right package, he could be a had. Can you imagine a backcourt of Brunson and Murray? As I wrote last month, "it would harken back to the days of Walt Frazier and Earl Monroe."

Think about it. With three players capable of scoring 25 plus points per game, the Knicks would be almost impossible to defend. And with their defense, they could capture their first title since 1973.

So what needs to happen to make this trade a reality? For starters, Rose has to do something he's been reluctant to do: roll the dice. You're not going to land Murray for just a couple of picks. Atlanta GM Landry Fields needs to know he's getting a package that he can sell to his fanbase. And that package must include players who can actually play as well as first rounders he can rebuild around.

Here's a proposed trade that would be a win / win for both teams.

New York receives Dejounte Murray and Clint Capela.

Atlanta receives Quentin Grimes, Deuce McBride, Evan Fournier and three first round picks.

In addition to Murray, the Knicks get Capela to backup Isaiah Hartenstein. Nobody knows when or if Mitchell Robinson will return this season, and at 6' 8" Precious Achiuwa is simply not the answer.

In Grimes and McBride, the Hawks get a starting backcourt that is both young and has potential. And even though he fell out of favor with Tom Thibodeau, Fournier has played both guard and small forward and is a proven scorer. Regarding the three number ones, need I say more?

Some Knicks fans may squawk that including McBride in the package is too high a price to pay, even for an elite guard like Murray. I would counter that in a rotation that includes Murray, Brunson and Hart, it's unlikely that McBride would see the court anyway. Let's face it: unless the Knicks are up 20 with less than two minutes to go, Thibs is not one to empty his bench. That's not his style. In fact, in such a three-man rotation, DiVencenso could well see his minutes reduced.

With the Indiana Pacers improving themselves by acquiring Pascal Siakam, the Knicks don't have the luxury of standing pat. Yes, they are a better team now than they were three weeks ago, but ultimately their success will hinge on what they do come April, May and June.

The NBA trade deadline is February 8. The clock is ticking, Leon.

Tuesday, January 9, 2024

Giants Have A lot of Holes To Fill


A year ago, the New York Giants were off to Minnesota to play the Vikings in the Wild Card round. They went on to win that game - their first postseason victory since 2011. And even though they were blown out by the Philadelphia Eagles in the Divisional round the following week, the feeling around 1 MetLife Stadium Drive was that the future was bright.

Well, we all know what happened. The 2023 season got off on the wrong foot and very quickly got away from the Giants. Injuries, poor execution on the field and questionable coaching decisions, all contributed to a 6-11 record that, once again, left Giants fans justifiably frustrated and wondering whether the current regime was up to the task of turning this thing around.

With this franchise now on its fourth head coach since Tom Coughlin was relieved of his duties following the 2015 season, it was highly unlikely that John Mara was going to fire Brian Daboll, especially given he won Coach of the Year in 2022. But, clearly, some changes had to be made. And made they were.

Gone are special teams coordinator Thomas McGaughey, offensive line coach Bobby Johnson, outside linebackers coach Drew Wilkins and defensive assistant Kevin Wilkins. Based on the press conference Daboll and GM Joe Schoen held on Monday, the plan was to keep defensive coordinator Wink Martindale and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka on, but Martindale apparently didn't take too kindly to his assistants being fired, so he resigned in a huff.

My take on Martindale's departure is mixed. While he had his good points, it's worth noting that his former team, the Baltimore Ravens, haven't exactly suffered since he left. This year, the Ravens allowed the fewest points in the NFL; the year before they allowed the fourth fewest. Buddy Ryan, he wasn't. The Giants should have little problem replacing him.

It's on the other side of the ball where things become more dicey. Pick a position: quarterback, offensive line, wide receiver, tight end, running back, all have profound questions that will demand answers in order to avoid another calamitous performance in 2024.

Thanks to their season finale win over the Philadelphia Eagles at MetLife, the Giants will pick sixth in next year's draft. Regardless of whether the Chicago Bears decide to trade or keep their number one pick, a top quarterback prospect will fall into Schoen's lap. Washington's Michael Penix, Jr distinguished himself in the national title game against Michigan. While no Caleb Williams, he'd be an interesting choice for a franchise that still hasn't fully lived down taking Daniel Jones with the sixth pick in 2019.

If Schoen believes that Jones has what it takes to lead this team, or, more to the point, if Mara "convinces" him he has what it takes, he may opt to go for a wide receiver or an offensive lineman.  God knows the Giants can use help at both. And if they decide not to franchise tag Saquon Barkley, they will need help at that position, as well.

Bottom line: Plenty of holes to fill, plenty of decisions to make. I don't relish the spot Schoen and Daboll find themselves in. But that's what you get when you underperform expectations the way the Giants did in 2023. Mara knows it takes time to rebuild; his father went through a similar rebuild in the 1980s. But he is also acutely aware that the fan base is restless and running out of patience.

Which makes this the most consequential offseason possibly in franchise history.


Thursday, January 4, 2024

Drury Can't Afford To Wait For Chytil


Normally, I'm not one to overreact to a bad loss - and let's just call what happened Tuesday night at the Garden a bad loss - but the New York Rangers have a problem; one that President and General Manager Chris Drury would do well to address before this incredible season begins to unravel.

Just to be clear, the Blueshirts are still in first place in the Metropolitan Division. Their 25 wins lead the NHL. Nor are they the only team to have gone through a slump. For instance, since getting off to an 11-0-1 start, the Vegas Golden Knights, last season's Stanley Cup winners, have gone 11-11-4. The Atlantic Division leading Boston Bruins have had losing streaks of three in a row and four in a row this season. Both teams, so far as anyone knows, are still considered contenders, as are the Rangers.

But unlike those two teams, the Rangers problem is primarily one of personnel, or a lack thereof. At the risk of beating a dead horse, the loss of Filip Chytil to a concussion and Kaapo Kakko to a leg injury has put a strain on a lineup that wasn't exactly bursting with depth to begin with.

When the season started, the Rangers forward lines were:

Chris Kreider - Mika Zibanejad - Kaapo Kakko
Artemi Panarin - Filip Chytil - Alexis Lafreniere
Will Cuylle - Vincent Trocheck - Blake Wheeler
Barclay Goodrow - Nick Bonino - Jimmy Vesey

Not quite the 1985 Edmonton Oilers but more than respectable. Since Chytil and Kakko went down, the Rangers forward lines have looked like this:

Kreider - Zibanejad - Wheeler
Panarin - Trocheck - Lafreniere
Cuylle - Bonino - Jonnny Brodzinski
Vesey - Goodrow - Tyler Pitlick

Pitlick was supposed to be the 13th forward on this team; Brodziński is a 30 year old career AHLer who on an average team would have a hard time cracking the lineup. Neither has any business getting the amount of minutes they're getting. As for Bonino, Drury signed him to be a checking center. He belongs on a third line the way Nick Fotiu would belong on a line with Jacques Lemaire and Steve Shutt. 

Drury is undoubtedly aware of this. He knows he's pushing the envelope having Pitlick and Brodzinski on this roster. And he isn't blind. Every shift Bonino takes at 3C is as excruciating to watch as it is a lesson in futility. That the Rangers are currently in first place is a testament to Peter Laviolette's coaching ability and Panarin having a career year. Absent that, this team would likely be struggling to stay in the playoff hunt.

So now that we know what the problem is, how will Drury address it? With Kakko not expected back until February and Chytil returning to his native Czechia in what the team is calling a "reset," they need help now. Some of that help is on its way, via Hartford. The Rangers have recalled Brennan Othmann to replace Pitlick, who is listed as week-to-week with a lower body injury. Where he plays will be up to Laviolette. I'm sure Drury would've preferred to have Othmann spend an entire season in the AHL, however circumstances forced his hand.

But the real need is at center. If Chytil is indeed lost for the season, Drury will have to look outside the organization for a replacement. But who, that's the question.

Going into the season, the Rangers had $675k in cap space. With Chytil and Kakko both on LTIR, they have around $7.1 million available to go shopping and still be cap compliant. I doubt Drury will use the whole wad, because if he does, Kakko can't return until the playoffs. So let's say for the sake of argument the number is $5 million. That should be more than enough.

Below is a list of possible candidates along with their cap hits and stat lines.

Elias Lindholm (Calgary) $4.85m / 37GP / 8G / 16A / 55.1% FO. Lindholm is a legit star who scored 42 goals in the 2021-22 season. With the Flames looking to sell, he won't come cheap. Figure multiple draft picks and a couple of prospects.

Boone Jenner (Columbus) $3.75m / 29GP / 13G / 5A / 55.9% FO. Jenner is out with broken jaw for the next six weeks, so Drury might be reluctant to pursue him. However, if the long-term prognosis on Chytil is as bleak as some have hinted, Jenner would be an ideal replacement. He's signed thru the 2025-26 season with a very manageable cap hit. Like Lindholm, he'll cost a pretty penny.

Kevin Hayes (St. Louis) $7.142m (50% retained by Philadelphia) 36GP / 9G / 10A / 56.4% FO. Would Drury bring Hayes back to Broadway? At $3.571m, he fits nicely. Plus, if Chytil does return by the playoffs, Hayes can switch to RW where Alain Vigneault often used him when he coached here.

Sean Monahan (Montreal) $1.985m / 9G / 13A / 57.5% FO. The thing that makes Monahan so attractive is his cap hit. In the event Chytil is cleared to return before the playoffs, Drury could move out Pitlick's contract and still fit him in under the cap, provided he can get the Canadiens to retain some salary. Don't be surprised if this is the move that gets made.

With Monahan, the Rangers forward lines would look like this, assuming Chytil is gone for the season:

Kreider - Zibanejad - Wheeler
Panarin - Trocheck - Lafreniere
Cuylle - Monahan - Othmann / Kakko
Goodrow - Bonino - Vesey

You can live with Wheeler on the first line. Going into the Carolina game, he had 9 points in his last 9 games; the second line speaks for itself; Monahan gives the Rangers a legitimate third line; and, best of all, Bonino returns to the fourth line where he belongs.

As far as a Patrick Kane reunion is concerned, it's highly unlikely that Drury would go down that road again. One look at how well the Detroit Red Wings have played since his arrival should be all you need to know. Despite his hall of fame credentials, he's not worth the disruption he brings to a locker room. Plus, he's a winger, not a center.

Seriously, Rangers fans, it's time to bring down the curtain on Showtime.



Sunday, December 31, 2023

Leon Rose Isn't Done




"You are what your record says you are." - Bill Parcells 


Through 31 games, the New York Knicks were 17-14. By no means were they a bad team; but in a top-heavy league like the NBA, they were hardly contenders. After an exhilarating win over the Milwaukee Bucks on Christmas Day, they had dropped their last two and had fallen out of the top six in the Eastern Conference.

Give Leon Rose credit. He knew it wasn't going to get any better, and with Mitchell Robinson lost for the season, it had every chance of getting worse; a lot worse. Since the starting center went down, the Knicks have gone from the 4th best defense in the league to 15th. C plus may cut it in high school algebra, but for an organization that hasn't been to the finals since 1999 - and is now staring at 51 years without a title - it might as well have been an F.

So he did what he any competent man in his position would've done: he went for it - BIG! In what some are calling a blockbuster trade, he shipped RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and a second-round draft pick to the Toronto Raptors for OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn.

The key piece in this transaction is Anunoby. The 6-7 small forward is the prototypical Tom Thibodeau player. Named to 2023 NBA All Defensive second team, he rebounds, blocks shots, gets the occasional steal, and is far-more consistent from both inside and outside the three point arc than Barrett, who in his five seasons in New York never quite realized his potential. He now gets a second chance in his native Toronto. 

Losing Quickley will deplete one of the few strengths of this team: its bench. But with IQ a pending free agent after the season, it was unlikely Rose was going to sign him anyway. Better to get what you can for a disappearing asset. The fact that the Knicks still have all their number one picks means they have plenty of draft capital with which to make other trades.

And you gotta believe Rose isn't done remaking this roster. With Jalen Brunson the only star, the Knicks desperately need an elite player to compete with the big boys. Julius Randle has the heart of a lion, but he's not that guy. And even when Robinson was healthy, he couldn't hold a candle to Joel Embiid, Kristaps Portzingis or Giannis Antetokounmpo. Face it: pick any contending team in the NBA the Knicks could go up against and they never had the best player on the court. 

Never.

The question isn't whether Rose will make another move, but with whom? The Utah Jazz could be a potential trade partner. They're clearly rebuilding. Last season, they dealt Donavan Mitchell to the Cleveland Cavaliers after rejecting a combination of players and draft picks from the Knicks. This time around, Rose could offer Danny Ainge four number one and three number two picks over the next two years that are fully conveyed for Lauri Markkanen. No matter how you slice it, that's a ton of draft picks. Even Ainge would have a hard time saying no to that.

Markkanen would give New York something they haven't had since Patrick Ewing: a center who can score and rebound. Just imagine this Knicks roster:

Starters:
C:   Markkanen
PF: Randle
SF: Anunoby
PG: Brunson
SG: Hart

Bench:
C:   Hartenstein
PF: Achiuwa
SF: Gibson
PG: Grimes
SG: DiVencenzo

If Rose can't pry Markkanen away from Utah, he can turn his sights south to Atlanta, where the Hawks might be willing to deal shooting guard Dejounte Murray for the right package. Can you imagine a back court of Brunson and Murray? It would harken back to the days of Walt Frazier and Earl Monroe. Rumor has it that the Los Angeles Lakers have the inside track on landing Murray, but you never know.

Bottom line, Knicks fans shouldn't get too attached to this lineup. I seriously doubt Rose acquired all these draft picks just to sit on them. And you can bet the ranch James Dolan is expecting something big. With the Rangers currently leading the NHL in points, he's not going to sit still while the other franchise that plays in his building is a second-tier team.

The next few weeks should be interesting.

Happy New Year.

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

NHL Power Rankings: Separating the Contenders From the Pretenders



Before I get to the power rankings, I wanted to take a minute to personally thank Gary Bettman for shutting down the NHL over the Christmas holiday. It isn't everyday that a commissioner of a major professional sports league decides to remove his sport from all public exposure at a time when millions of fans are home with their families. Way to go, Gary.

And to think this league had the nerve to only raise the salary cap $1 million because the players still owed $70 million in back escrow. To quote Forrest Gump, "Stupid is as stupid does."

Now onto the pièce de résistance.

Unlike traditional power rankings, which are typically league based, I've decided to break mine down by conference. Until the NHL goes to a 16 team playoff format, it doesn't make sense to do it any other way. I've also decided to break it down further by contender and pretender, and to omit the very worst teams in each conference. Why waste time on the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Chicago Blackhawks?

As always, don't take it too seriously. It's all done in fun.

Eastern Conference:

Contenders:

New York Rangers: They're off to their fastest start since the '94 Cup team. And they've managed to do it with only two scoring lines. Just imagine how much better they'll be once Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko return. With Igor Shesterkin regaining his Vezina-trophy form and Jonathan Quick in reserve, they will be very tough to beat in the postseason.

Boston Bruins: The retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí haven't stopped this team from once more ascending to the top of the standings in the Atlantic division. What they lack in offensive explosiveness, they more than make up for in grit. They have the defense and goaltending to go all the way.

Florida Panthers: Last year's Cup finalists are no fluke. With Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart, they are loaded up front; and with Sergei Bobrosky in net, they have a clear path back to the finals.

Toronto Maple Leafs: The fab four - Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares - might be the most talented quartet in the NHL. They are fast and lethal. The only question mark - and it's a big one - is their goaltending.

New York Islanders: Their minus 4 goal differential is a concern, but their offense - long a sore spot - is starting to percolate. They're tough as nails to play against, and with their goaltending, they will give any opponent they meet in the first round fits.

Philadelphia Flyers: If you had the former Broadstreet Bullies as contenders prior to the season, you're a better man than me. I didn't even have them as a "close but no cigar." But John Tortorella has somehow managed to get this team to believe in itself. The return of Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson hasn't hurt either.

Pretenders:

Washington Capitals: Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain. The Caps are a painful reminder that no matter how good your defense is, you can't win in this league when you have the second worst offense.

Tampa Bay Lightning: One game they look like the team that won back-to-back Cups; the next they look like the San Jose Sharks. They are finally paying the price for manipulating the salary cap. Karma truly is a bitch.

Carolina Hurricanes: They've never had great goaltending or elite-level forwards, but now their defense is leaking like a sieve. Hard to believe this is a Rod Brind'Amour-coached team.

New Jersey Devils: Serves me right for picking them to win the Metro. Tom Fitzgerald was trying to create an east-coast version of the Edmonton Oilers. He seems to have succeeded, though not the way he intended.

Detroit Red Wings: Since Patrick Kane's arrival in Motown, the Wings are 2-6-1. Maybe Steve Yzerman should've gotten himself a legit goalie instead of a future hall of fame winger.

Pittsburgh Penguins: The oldest team in the NHL underachieving for the second straight season. Gee, who coulda seen that coming?

Buffalo Sabres: Don't beat yourself up. I, too, was taken in by their potential. They can score; it's stopping the other team from scoring that's the problem.

Montreal Canadiens: They're still a year or two away, but credit Marty St. Louis for turning around a locker room that had gotten used to losing.

Western Conference:

Contenders:

Vegas Golden Knights: They can role four lines and their defense is big and battle tested. Vegas's strength is their depth throughout the lineup. They won the Cup last season and are the odds-on favorites to repeat.

Vancouver Canucks: In just over a year Rick Tocchet has transformed this perennial underachiever into a bonafide contender. They have the best goal differential in the NHL, the number one offense and the sixth best defense.

Los Angeles Kings: Very quietly, Cam Talbot is making his bid to win the Vezina trophy this season, which would be quite a feat given he was supposedly washed up last season. They're deep down the middle and have the best defense in the league.

Dallas Stars: This is a team that can compete with the best in the league. The only concern is in goal where Jake Oettinger hasn't quite gotten back to the level of excellence he showed last season.

Colorado Avalanche: Their core is as elite as it gets; it's the rest of the roster that gives you pause. Still, they are quite capable of making a deep run in the playoffs.

Winnipeg Jets: They traded arguably their second best center and got better. Connor Hellebuyck might be the most under-appreciated goaltender in the league, and Mark Scheifele is finally emerging as a leader on this team.

Pretenders:

Nashville Predators: Like the Washington Capitals, they're using smoke and mirrors to conceal their deficiencies. It'll catch up to them eventually.

Edmonton Oilers: Don't be seduced by the wins in New York and New Jersey. This is not a team that is built to go four rounds. Would loved to have seen what they could've done in the '80s when defense was optional.

Minnesota Wild: As long as they have that dead cap weight on their books, GM Bill Guerin will struggle to fill out a roster that will be good enough to compete in the regular season, much less in the postseason.

St. Louis Blues: The only reason they might sneak into the postseason is because the Western Conference is so weak in the middle. Don't let that fool you. They're in rebuild mode.

Calgary Flames: Boy was I wrong about this team. I figured the problem last year was Darryl Sutter. Turns out it was the roster all along. Makes you wonder how the hell Brad Trelving got the gig in Toronto.

Seattle Kraken: After coming within a win of advancing to the conference finals last season, they are in contention for biggest disappointment of the 2023-24 season. Which is saying a lot given how many teams could qualify for that distinction.

Arizona Coyotes: How 'bout this for the storyline of the year? The Yotes are sellers at the trade deadline yet still manage to make the playoffs. Don't laugh, it could happen.


Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Yamamota Goes with the Dodgers



I'll be honest. I was really looking forward to seeing Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a New York Mets uniform for the next ten years. Just based on the scouting reports, the 25 year old has a chance to become one of baseball's most dominant pitchers. And I'm pissed that Steve Cohen, with all his billions, couldn't close the deal. 

But the more we learn about what was going on behind the scenes, the more it becomes apparent that Yamamoto simply didn't want to play for an east-coast team. The Yankees offered him $300 million over ten years; Cohen went a step further and upped the anti to $325 million. That still wasn't enough.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, who only a few days earlier had signed Shohei Ohtani to an unprecedented ten year $700 million contract, matched Cohen's offer and inked Yamamoto. Think about it: $1 billion tied up in just two contracts. Somewhere, Charlie Finley is having a stroke.

To those who think Cohen should've just shot the moon, as it were, and gone up to $400 million, there are two inherent problems with that: 1. Regardless of what Cohen offered, the Dodgers would've matched it; 2. Once Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, they pretty much had the inside track on Yamamoto. All Cohen would've succeeded in doing was driving up the asking price for a free agent he was never going to sign. If you think Cohen is despised by the owners now, that stunt would've been the icing on the cake. Take it from a former salesman, trying to out dick the other guy is never a successful strategy.

But let's play devil's advocate for a moment. Let's say Cohen inked him at $400 million. That would've been great, right? A starting rotation consisting of Yamamoto and Kodai Senga would be formidable. With the return of Edwin Diaz, and the addition of a couple middle relievers, the Mets would be a much better team going into 2024 than they were at the close of 2023.

But then there's the matter of what to do with Pete Alonso. The all-star first baseman is set to become a free agent after next year. The price tag for him will not be cheap. His agent is Scott Boras. If you think Boras is going to let one of the game's most prolific home run hitters sign for anything less than what he thinks he's entitled to, this must be your first day on the planet. Trust me, there will be no home-town discount for Cohen. If Yamamoto was worth (fill in the blank), then Pete will be worth at least that much.

You can bet the ranch that if Cohen had signed Yamamota, Boras would've started the bidding for Alonso at that precise number. In other words, by trying to screw the Dodgers, Cohen would've ostensibly screwed himself. I think Cohen realized this, which is why he didn't shoot the moon. And the money he saved by not landing Yamamoto he can now use to address other areas of this roster that need fortifying.

It's important to remember that even without Ohtani and Yamamoto, the Dodgers still had one of the highest payrolls in major league baseball the last two seasons. Yet despite impressive campaigns which saw them win 100 and 111 games respectively, they were upset in the first round by teams that finished considerably behind them in the standings.

The Arizona Diamondbacks, with a record of 84-78, won the National League pennant last season. If I'm Cohen, I'm probably thinking why should I spend all that money on just one player, when I can spend half that amount and get several players? Even in a sport that long ago forgot the meaning of the word frugal, two plus two still equals four. The fact is had Diaz not gotten injured last season, the Mets most assuredly would've finished better than 75-87.

Translation: they're not that far away from a possible wild card berth. Cohen and his new president David Stearns know this. That's why they didn't panic; and Mets fans shouldn't either. Let the Dodgers play the role of pariah. When they crash and burn again in October, something tells me a lot of people in Queens will be grinning from ear to ear.



Thursday, December 21, 2023

About That Slump



Turns out those storm clouds on the horizon were nothing but a sun shower. After dropping three out of four games in rather ugly fashion, the New York Rangers have rebounded, winning three in a row, two against playoff-caliber teams. 

But even more impressive, their Vezina trophy-winning goalie seems to have regained his form. Against the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs, Igor Shesterkin stopped 52 of 55 shots. Three goals against in two games. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, doubters.

The puck management that had had alluded the Rangers over the last few games returned as if it had never been gone. The 2-1 OT win over the Bruins might be the best game this team has played in years; and after getting shellacked by the Maple Leafs 7-3 at the Garden last week, Tuesday's 5-2 win in Toronto was sweet revenge.

In retrospect, that 7-4 win over the Bruins last month might've been the worst thing that could've happened to this team; it gave them a false sense of accomplishment. By all accounts, it was one of the sloppiest games of the season, with both sides committing multiple turnovers. I have long held that a team that wins these types of games is like a kid who gets away with eating a chocolate chip cookie before dinner. He never pays the price, hence he never learns anything.

Well, let's just say that, unlike that kid with the cookie, the Rangers did learn something. They learned that pretending to be the 1985 Edmonton Oilers can lead to one helluva tummy ache. It's not that they don't have elite-level talent; they do. It's just that relying on that talent isn't enough; not in today's NHL. If it were, if talent alone was all a team needed, Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews would each have at least two Stanley Cup rings by now. Think about it: the Vegas Golden Knights didn't have a single scorer in the top 70 last season; yet they still won the Cup. At the end of the day, hockey is a team sport. Fantasy teams may be fun and lucrative, but they seldom win championships.

So now that the Rangers have had their rude awakening, all appears to be well. Peter Laviolette no doubt had some choice words for his players after the Toronto loss, and since then the results have been self evident. No more track meets, no more run and gun, no more half-assed passes that lead to turnovers. Just structure, structure, structure, the way he and his staff drew it up on the black board during the preseason.

For their part, the Blueshirts have been attentive students. Over their first 30 games, they are 22-7-1 for 45 points. How good is that? Consider that the 1993-94 team that won the Cup went 21-6-3 for 45 points in their first 30 games. I realize some might think it sacrilegious to compare this team to such an illustrious group of athletes. Don't count me as one of them. The more I see this team play, the more convinced I become that we could be looking at something special come June.

Fundamentally, this is as sound a hockey team as you are likely to find. They are well coached and they are disciplined. They do whatever it takes to win. They go into the trenches, they take the body, they finish their checks, they block shots, they win face-offs, they convert on the power play. And on those rare occasions when they fail to do any of those things, their goaltending is good enough to bail them out. Games they lost last season they are finding a way to win this season. It isn't always pretty, but since when has hockey always been pretty?

They are in first place in the Eastern conference, only two points behind the league-leading Golden Knights. Can you say Presidents' Trophy? I knew you could.

They are no fluke; they have earned everything they have gotten so far.


Friday, December 15, 2023

Will the Real New York Rangers Please Stand Up



It is an axiom that no team, regardless of how good they are, ever goes through an entire regular season without experiencing a slump. After their best start in 30 years - a start that saw them jump out to the top of the NHL standings - it was only a matter of time before the New York Rangers experienced one.

To be clear, the issue is not that the Blueshirts have lost three of their last four games - and four of their last eight - the issue is how they've lost those games. Every single one has been by a margin of four goals: 5-1 to the Buffalo Sabres; 6-2 to the Ottawa Senators; 4-0 to the Washington Capitals; and 7-3 to the Toronto Maple Leafs. The common denominator in all four was how poorly they played in every facet of the game. The Washington loss was a virtual no show, and in the Toronto loss, both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner were untouched as they skated into the Rangers zone. Not even Patrick Roy could've stopped those goals. Not since last year's playoff loss against the New Jersey Devils have the Rangers been this uninspiring.

The drop-off in play is disconcerting, to say the least. After they beat the Boston Bruins at the Garden on November 25, the Rangers were first in the league in goals against, second in save percentage and third in goal differential. Over their last eight games, they have dropped to 11th in goals against, 11th in save percentage and 9th in goal differential. 

Ironically, while the Rangers have been in the midst of this slump, they've also played two of their better games of the season: a 3-2 win over the up and coming Detroit Red Wings and a 4-1 thumping of the L.A. Kings; the latter considered by many to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

So how is this possible? How can a team play so well one game, then fall apart the next? Until the Leafs game, a pattern was emerging. Against teams with winning records, the Rangers were 11-2-0, with a goals against average of 2.38 and a save percentage of .922. Against teams with non-winning records, the Rangers were 8-4-1, with a goals against average of 3.08 and a save percentage of .896. The obvious conclusion was that the Rangers were playing down to the level of their opponent.

The loss against Toronto seems to have thrown that conclusion out the window. The Leafs may not be the Bruins or the Kings, but they are hardly the San Jose Sharks. In fact, as of this writing, they are only four points out of first place in the Atlantic division. If you can't get up for a team like that, especially after a convincing win against the Kings, then you have a problem.

Some have laid the blame at Igor Shesterkin's skates. While it's true that the former Vezina trophy winner has let in several questionable goals this season, the fact is that prior to his last start against the Leafs, his save percentage against winning teams was .917. By comparison, Jonathan Quick's save percentage against those same teams was .932. But here's the rub: if you subtract his shutout against the Pittsburgh Penguins, that save percentage drops down to .906. So, clearly, the problem isn't Igor.

Then just what is the problem? I think it boils down to attrition. Since the injury to Filip Chytil and the subsequent one to Kaapo Kakko, the Rangers have been primarily a two-line team. Nick Bonino, who was brought in for his checking abilities, is simply not a third-line center; not at this stage of his career. When Chytil went down with what is believed to have been the fourth or fifth concussion of his young career, he had six points - all assists - in 10 games. So far, Bonino has one goal and three assists for four points in 27 games. You don't need to be a statistician to know that four points in 27 games isn't going to cut it, not when other teams are getting production from their third lines. And while Kakko wasn't exactly lighting it up on the score sheet, his defense away from the puck made him an asset to his team.

The fact is not having these two forwards in the lineup has put a strain on the ability of the Rangers to generate a sustained forecheck. Peter Laviolette has been forced to rotate Blake Wheeler and Johnny Brodzinski on the first line with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. Neither are top six forwards. Sooner or later, this was going to catch up with them. That it took this long is a credit to the resiliency of the players and the coaching bonafides of Laviolette's staff. Make no mistake about it: this team wins not because of its talent, but because of its adherence to a system that brings structure and discipline; two words typically not associated with the Blueshirts. Were it not for Artemi Panarin and a power play that is currently ranked second in the league, the Rangers would likely be up a creek without a paddle. Clearly, something needs to be done. But what?

It's important to remember that even with the issues they've had of late, the Rangers are still in first place in the Metropolitan division and second overall in the Eastern conference. They are number one in face off percentage and are one of the top teams in the league in blocked shots. The fast start they got off to has given GM Chris Drury the leeway he needs to not make a panic move.

But everything hinges on how long Chytil remains out? If he is able to return by January, Drury may elect to ride out the storm. But if the long-term prognosis for Chytil is bleak, he will have to trade for a center. Because the Rangers were forced to place Chytil and Kakko on LTIR, they are not accruing cap space during this time. That means that any salary Drury adds will have to be offset once Chytil and Kakko are activated, unless they shut down one or both for the duration of the regular season.

If Drury wants to hedge his bet, a good option would be Sean Monahan of the Montreal Canadiens. The pending UFA has 9 goals, 17 points and a 56.9 win percentage on face offs. And he only makes $1.985 million, meaning even if Chytil and Kakko both return, the Rangers can accommodate his cap hit. Best of all, it would allow Laviolette to move Chytil to right wing where he might prosper more; Kakko would then return to the first line and Bonino to the forth line where both belong. 

So, the Rangers have their first slump of the season. The sky isn't falling; not yet, anyway. But there are storm clouds on the horizon.


Wednesday, December 13, 2023

A Sub Above


So much for tanking. Whoever said the New York Giants season was over at 2-8 - that would be me, by the way - apparently never checked in with Tommy DeVito. Over the last three games, the one-time practice squad and backup quarterback has been anything but. Indeed, he's made one helluva case to be a starter in the NFL next season, if not with the Giants then somewhere.

Just look at these numbers:

Against the Washington Commanders, DeVito was 18/26 for 246 yards with 3 TDs, no INTs and had a quarterback rating of 137.7.

Against the New England Patriots, he was 17/25 for 191 yards, 1 TD, no INTs and a quarterback rating of 103.9.

And against the Green Bay Packers, he was 17/21 for 158 yards, 1 TD, no INTs and a quarterback rating of 113.9.

He has completed 52 out of 72 pass attempts over those three games for a completion percentage of 72.2. To put that in perspective, Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa have a completion percentage of 70.2 and 70 respectively. Whatever DeVito's mom is putting in those chicken cutlets she makes for her son, she should package it and sell it to the entire Giants organization.

Now before we get ahead of ourselves here, a couple of things need to be said. First, I'm not suggesting that DeVito is in the same class as Purdy or Tua. The only reason I mentioned him in the same sentence with those two was to point out just how well he's played these last three games and to give him full props; that's it. What DeVito reminds me of is Jeremy Lin: the basketball guard who burst onto the scene for the Knicks in 2011 and lit the Garden on fire for a season before being dealt to the Houston Rockets. Moments like this are special but fleeting, and Giants fans should enjoy this one while it lasts.

Second, let's knock it off with all the "in the playoff hunt" nonsense. This team is 5-8 and two of their remaining four games are against the Philadelphia Eagles who, as much as I hate to admit it, are in another league. If this season has taught us anything, it's that 2022 was an anomaly. The Giants clearly overachieved and, as a result, gave a lot of fans - myself included - a false sense of expectation going into 2023. Joe Schoen still has a lot more work to do before Big Blue becomes a legitimate contender. As I wrote prior to the start of last season, it took George Young seven years before he was able to field a team that eventually won the Super Bowl. This is only year two of the current regime. 

Bottom line: given where they were three weeks ago, if the Giants finish 7-10, they'll be very fortunate. Just as important, though, they will owe their strong finish - a finish that might well save Brian Daboll's job, by the way - to a man who lives at home with his parents and whose mom still makes his bed and cooks his meals for him.

Not a bad gig. Capiche?


Sunday, December 3, 2023

The Helmet Throw: One Year Later


There are few moments in sports that can genuinely be looked upon as watershed. One such moment occurred a year ago today at Madison Square Garden.

The New York Rangers were in the midst of a stretch of games which saw them drop four of their last five, and were trailing the Chicago Blackhawks 3-0 late in the second period. The only reason the margin wasn't larger was because the Blackhawks were too inept to take advantage of the Blueshirts lackluster effort.

Jacob Trouba had seen enough. The first-year captain decided to take matters into his own hands, or should I say shoulder. He delivered a crunching open-ice hit on Andreas Athanasiou that led to several fighting majors, including one on Trouba.

But it was what he did on his way to the locker room that raised so many eyebrows. He threw his helmet towards the Rangers bench and screamed at his teammates to "wake the fuck up!" 

Sadly, his words fell on deaf ears. The Rangers would go on to lose 5-1, dropping their record to a woeful 11-10-5. The season was hanging in the balance.

It was not until their next game against the St. Louis Blues that the full impact of Trouba's gesture began to take hold. Trailing 4-3 heading into the third period, the Blueshirts scored three straight goals to pull out the first of what would be seven consecutive wins. The Rangers wound up going 36-12-8 post helmet, and even though they lost to the New Jersey Devils in the first round of the playoffs, Trouba has been rightly credited with saving the season.

There are those who say that the 6-3, 210 pound defenseman is overpaid for what he does; that the Rangers would've been better off putting the $8 million they pay him towards other needs. I respectfully disagree. True, Trouba does occasionally turn the puck over, sometimes at the most inopportune time; and his offense, since his first season in New York, is highly overrated.

But the intangibles he brings to the table are undeniable. In a league where the only physical contact between players typically involves a high stick to the face or a cross check to the back, Trouba is a throw back to an era where players routinely took the body and weren't intimidated so easily. 

His hits, despite the chirping from the cheap seats, are always clean and on target. He is a leader both inside and outside the locker room. There is not a single player on the Rangers who doesn't look up to him, and not a single player on virtually every team in the NHL that doesn't keep his head up a bit more when he's on the ice.

If that isn't respect, I don't know what is. 

To the nerds who run the analytics departments across the league, Trouba may seem like a luxury; to the millions of fans who watched him throw his helmet in that game against the Blackhawks a year ago, we know better.

And so do his teammates.


Sunday, November 26, 2023

Rangers Serve Notice on the NHL


Something special is happening with the New York Rangers; something we haven't seen in a very long time. Since losing to the Nashville Predators at the Garden on October 19, the Blueshirts have gone 13-1-1. At 15-3-1, they sit atop the Metropolitan Division, and by virtue of their 7-4 win over the Boston Bruins on Saturday. and the subsequent loss by the Vegas Golden Knights to, of all teams, the Arizona Coyotes, they are in first place in the NHL.

A little over two weeks ago, I wrote a piece in which I asked "How good are these Rangers?" Well, the answer is in. These Rangers are damn good! Just check out the stats below:

Goals allowed: 45 (Fewest)
Goal differential: 21 (3rd)
Power play percentage: 30% (tied for 3rd)
Penalty kill percentage: 85.7% (tied for 7th)
Save percentage: .920 (2nd)
Face off win percentage: 55% (1st)
Record against winning teams: 9-1-0

And not to beat a dead horse, but they've played virtually the entire month without their best defenseman Adam Fox and their number two center Filip Chytil. They were also without the services of their Vezina trophy-winning goaltender Igor Shesterkin for over a week. Far from being a problem, the absence of these players appears to have made this team more resilient and tougher to play against. Can you imagine how much better they'll be once Fox and Chytil return?

Grit typically isn't a word you associate with the Rangers, but this season, it's become their mantra. Bad calls by the officials don't seem to rattle them; injuries to key players are opportunities for others like Tyler Pitlick, who scored his first goal of the season Saturday, to step up. If this team were a professional boxer, they'd say, "Is that all you got?" This might be the tightest locker room in the league.

If there's any cold water you can throw on them, it's that their Corsi for shot percentage at 5v5 has dropped considerably from 8th a month ago to 18th. But given that the Bruins and Golden Knights - currently the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the league - are 22nd and 17th respectively in that category, I wouldn't be too concerned. Head coach Peter Laviolette doesn't appear to be. And if there's one thing Laviolette is not known for, it's hiding his feelings. Trust me, if there was a problem, he and his coaching staff would be all over it.

That's not to say that everything is hunky dory. For all their grit and resiliency, the Rangers still haven't quite mastered Laviolette's system. And at various times this season, they've fallen back into an old and familiar habit of not putting forth a full sixty-minute effort. On their most recent road trip, they were badly outplayed by the Dallas Stars, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers in the 3rd period. That they found a way to win two out of three is a testament to the brilliance of both Jonathan Quick, who pitched a shutout in Pittsburgh, and Shesterkin, who appeared to find his game in Philly after a couple of rusty starts in Dallas and New Jersey.

This "bend but don't break" issue came to define the team during Gerard Gallant's tenure in New York, and I'm sure it's one that Laviolette would like to exorcize as soon as possible. Relying on your goaltender to consistently bail you out is not a long-term strategy for success, as last year's early exit against the Devils proved.

But all that aside, this team looks nothing like that Gallant team. For one thing, unlike last season, they aren't waiting for the playoffs to begin to flip a switch. From day one of training camp, Laviolette has sold these players one simple concept: postseason success doesn't start in April; it starts in September. The hard work and sacrifice that you put into the Fall and Winter months prepares you for the marathon that awaits you in the Spring. It's the reason why the Stanley Cup remains the hardest trophy in all of sports to win. Many a talented team has had their hopes of hoisting that precious chalice dashed because they weren't ready, either physically or mentally, for the challenge.

Laviolette has been down this road before. He was successful once. He knows how hard it is, and he has communicated as much to his players. So far, based on the standings, they seem to have gotten the memo.

Look, two weeks ago, I cautioned everybody not to jump to any conclusions. It wasn't even Thanksgiving yet, I wrote. Well, Thanksgiving has come and gone and, lo and behold, this team is for real. Furthermore, they have served notice on the NHL. Sleep on us at your own peril.

The goal could not be more clear. Like that legendary Cup team of 30 years ago, the Rangers are focused on the ultimate prize and are prepared to pay any price to achieve it. 




Monday, November 13, 2023

Rangers Have the Last Laf


The Rangers were trailing the Columbus Blue Jackets 3-2 late in the third period last night when they pulled goalie Jonathan Quick for an extra skater. The extra skater Head Coach Peter Laviolette sent out was none other than Alexis Lafreniere. And Lafreniere rewarded his coach's faith in him by scoring the game-tying goal with 11 seconds left in regulation. He then followed that up by scoring the eventual game-winner in the shoot out.

Last season, the words "extra skater" and "Lafreniere" appearing in the same sentence would've elicited a chorus of WTFs and double takes. Apart from the 2022 playoffs when he was part of that prolific "Kid Line" which turned so many heads, the overall number one pick in the 2020 NHL Draft has been an enigma. At times, showing flashes of brilliance; at other times confirming the worst of what his critics were saying about him.

But this is a different season and a different Lafreniere. Buoyed by the confidence his coach has shown in him, the 22 year old is finally delivering on his promise and silencing his critics. Not only has he successfully made the transition to right wing, he has become one of the team's best forwards. His 7 goals is third most on the team; only line-mate Artemi Panarin (8) and Chris Kreider (10) have scored more goals. Last night's game was his second multi-point game in a row; he converted a Vincent Trocheck pass in the second period to give the Rangers a 2-1 lead.

Lafreniere's development is a reminder that you can't judge all players equally. For the last three seasons all we kept hearing was how much better Tim Stützle was, despite the fact that the third overall pick in the 2020 draft was getting top six minutes and power play time, while Lafreniere mostly played on the third line and hardly ever saw power play time.

Below is a breakdown of both players stats over their careers.








You'll notice both players had the same number of goals in their first season. However, beginning in year two, Stützle's average ice time started going up, as did his goal production. Conversely, Lafreniere's ice time - and goal production - remained static. Through three seasons, Stützle had 73 goals, 10 of which were on the power play; Lafreniere had only 47 goals, 3 on the power play.

Now I'm not suggesting that if both players had switched places, their numbers would correspondingly flip. It's quite possible Stützle is better than Lafreniere. But what is apparent from this breakdown is that how a team utilizes a player can impact his development. The Rangers, unlike the Senators, did not do a complete teardown of their team. Jeff Gorton left intact the core we see now. Thus, Lafreniere was never thrown into the deep end of the pool the way Stützle was.

But the "patience" the Rangers showed ended up stunting Lafreniere's growth. It also didn't help matters any that Gerard Gallant preferred players like Dryden Hunt and Julien Gauthier over both him and Kaapo Kakko, another high draft pick that was under utilized by Gallant. With Laviolette behind the bench, Lafreniere's training wheels have been removed, so to speak. And not surprisingly, he's starting to realize his potential. He's actually on pace to score 41 goals. 

Not bad for a bust, wouldn't you say?