Monday, February 20, 2023

Rangers Coming Into Shape


Chris Drury is apparently done making splashes. His latest move - re-acquiring Tyler Motte from the Ottawa Senators for a conditional seventh round pick and Julien Gauthier - is an indication that the GM believes his team's greatest need isn't the addition of another scorer like Patrick Kane to the top six, but a little sandpaper to his beleaguered fourth line. So Motte - who did a yeoman's job playing with Barclay Goodrow and Ryan Reaves in last year's tournament - will hopefully have a repeat performance with Goodrow and a player to be named later. You don't think Drury would be stupid enough to go with Jake Leschyshyn as his 4C in the postseason, do you? Leschyshyn is merely a caretaker until his replacement arrives. By this time next week Nick Bjugstad, Sam Lafferty, or someone comparable will be donning the blue and red.

Face it: in a perfect world - one without a salary cap - Drury would jump at the chance to land Kane. Hell, with no salary cap, Timo Meier would already be a Ranger. Unfortunately, there is a salary cap and once Drury pulled the trigger on Vladimir Tarasenko, Kane became a luxury he could no longer afford. Yes, I suppose if Drury is able to find someone to take Leschyshyn and Vitali Kravtsov off his hands - a big if - that might free up just barely enough cap space to swing it, but that would mean Goodrow becomes the 4C, which would be a mistake. Goodrow is a winger, not a center.

Like it or not, Rangers fans, you're going to have to deal with Jimmy Vesey playing in the top six. While his inability to finish over the last few games is a concern that could prove problematic in April and May, even more concerning is the fact that Gerard Gallant barely played his fourth line in the third period against the Flames on Saturday. A coach who shortens his bench in the third period is nothing new in hockey; it happens all the time. What happened in Calgary, though, had nothing to do with a coach shortening his bench; it was a not so subtle hint from Gallant to his boss that he couldn't trust some of his players with the game on the line. Credit Drury for getting it. 

Let's be clear here. Motte is not a silver bullet. Like I pointed out above, he did a yeoman's job on the fourth line last postseason, but Bob Gainey he ain't. What he does bring to the table is a quality this team on too many nights still lacks: the ability to win the battles in the trenches. This team has plenty of elite-level talent; what it doesn't have enough of are foot soldiers. Motte is a foot soldier who isn't afraid to get his uniform bloodied. The Rangers are a better, slightly tougher, team now than they were on Saturday.

And they will need every ounce of that toughness if they have any hope of beating what is, without question, the toughest, most complete team in the NHL. The Boston Bruins are having the kind of season teams dream about. At 43-8-5, they're the prohibitive favorites to win the Stanley Cup. They can score, they can defend and they have the best goaltending tandem in the league. Besting them in a seven game series will be a tall order.

With the top six teams all in the Eastern Conference, whichever team makes it to the finals will have gone through three rounds of a track meet. If the Rangers are to be that team, Drury needs to make one more move on his chess board.


Monday, February 13, 2023

It's Time for Drury to Cut His Losses with Kravtsov


Look, I'm not going to make any excuses for the way in which Gerard Gallant has used Vitali Kravtsov this season - and for the record, he has a short leash with most young players - but it's time for Chris Drury to admit a painful truth: the Russian winger was a reach when then GM Jeff Gorton selected him with the 9th overall pick in the 2018 NHL draft, especially considering the Islanders took Oliver Wahlstrom two picks later.

Just take a look at his overall numbers. They don't exactly jump off the page. The year he was drafted, Kravtsov had 8 goals and 21 points in 50 games in the KHL. While at Hartford, he had 6 goals and 15 points in 39 games. The year he bolted for Russia after Drury tried to send him back down to Hartford, he had 6 goals and 13 points in 19 games in the KHL. In 48 games as a Ranger, Kravtsov has 5 goals and 10 points. Meanwhile, Wahlstrom has 32 goals and 61 points in 161 games for the Islanders. Of the 217 players selected in the 2018 draft, only six have fewer points than Kravtsov.

Maybe he's not Lias Andersson, but he's sure as shit ain't Alex Kovalev. And now that his camp has asked that he be traded, he's a declining asset that Drury needs to get something for while he still can. This is not a time for stubbornness. Drury may have gotten a first-round pick from the Dallas Stars for Nils Lundkvist, but that was different. Dallas had a need for an offensive-minded defenseman and the Rangers were loaded at right D. Everyone under the sun knew the Rangers were a little thin at right wing, hence the trade for Vladimir Tarasenko. If Kravtsov can't crack this lineup, that's a red flag. Drury doesn't have the leverage he thinks he has, trust me. The longer he waits, the worse the return will be. If he can get someone like Nick Bjugstad from Arizona to bolster his fourth line for Kravtsov and a sixth rounder, he should jump at it.

Look, it's clear that Kravtsov has no future with this team. Drury has to know that. Somewhere out there is a team willing to give him another shot, the same way the LA Kings did with Andersson. Drury may have inherited Gorton's mistake, but he's under no obligation to keep throwing good money after bad, not with the trade deadline three weeks away and the playoffs five weeks after that.

Beggars can't be choosey.


Friday, February 10, 2023

Drury Makes His Move


So much for not making a splash. Less than 24 hours after I confidently predicted Chris Drury would not make any huge moves going into the trade deadline, he reeled in one of the biggest fishes in the pond. Vladimir Tarasenko is now a New York Ranger, along with Niko Mikkola. The former is a member of the 2019 Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues, a six-time 30 goal scorer and a UFA at the end of the season; the latter, also a UFA, is a 6' 4", 209 pound left-handed defenseman who, based on what we saw in the game against the Vancouver Canucks Wednesday night, is Ben Harpur's replacement on the third pairing.

But while Drury may have gone Christmas shopping a bit early - the trade deadline is March 3 - he didn't overpay. To get Tarasenko and Mikkola, the Rangers gave up one of their two first-round draft picks (the lower of the two); a fourth-round draft pick; prospect Hunter Skinner; and Sammy Blais. Drury even got St. Louis GM Doug Armstrong to retain 50 percent of Tarasenko's $7.5 million cap hit. The next time I go shopping for a car, I'm taking this man with me.

Skinner is a prospect the same way I'm a participant in the triathlon. As for Blais, he never fully recovered from his torn ACL, and his $1.5 million cap hit was a luxury the team could no longer afford to carry. Not one single top-tier prospect or current roster player was even on the table. To put this trade in perspective, when the Rangers traded for Andrew Copp last season, Drury gave up two second-round picks, one of which became a first-rounder when the Rangers advanced to the Eastern Conference finals, a fifth-round pick in 2023, and a real prospect in Morgan Barron. So far this season, Barron has 5 goals and 12 points for the Winnipeg Jets, while Skinner has 3 goals and 8 points for Jacksonville of the East Coast League, the A Ball of professional hockey.

And here's the thing: Drury's cart may not be filled yet. That's because on the same day the Rangers consummated their deal with the Blues they put Libor Hajek on waivers. Yes, the last vestiges of that infamous Ryan McDonagh / J.T. Miller trade will soon be gone, along with his corresponding $800k cap hit. Meaning, Drury will have roughly $1.2 million left in the kitty to fortify his fourth line. Like I said, the man is a chess player.

Here's what the Rangers' postseason line-up could look like:

Panarin - Zibanejad - Tarasenko

Lafreniere - Chytil - Kakko

Kreider - Trocheck - Kravtsov

Goodrow - Bjugstad - Vesey

Lindgren - Fox

Miller - Trouba

Mikkola - Schneider

Shesterkin

How's that for a playoff roster? Not bad. In fact, it's a better and deeper roster than the one that came within two games of dethroning the Tampa Bay Lightning last season. Last year, Goodrow was hobbled by a broken ankle and Ryan Reaves was the right wing on the fourth line. Assuming Drury can land Nick Bjugstad, or someone with a comparable skillset, Gerard Gallant will have four lines at his disposal, all capable of putting the puck in the net. Just try checking this team.

There's just one tiny caveat. Tarasenko isn't exactly having a banner year. In 38 games this season, he has a paltry 10 goals and 29 points. Last season, he registered 34 goals and 82 points in 75 games. Over the last three seasons, he's battled the injury bug. If he's fully healthy and motivated, the Rangers may have pulled off the heist of the year; if he isn't, all bets are off.

We'll know soon enough. Tarasenko makes his debut tonight at the Garden against the Seattle Kraken. To quote the late, great Stevie Ray Vaughan: "The house will be rockin'."

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Drury's Trade Deadline Dilemma


I'll be honest with you. The prospect of seeing Timo Meier on a line with Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin is enticing. Just think of the possibilities. For the last two seasons, Gerard Gallant has been trying to assemble the perfect line. Last year, Chris Drury brought in Frank Vatrano and Andrew Copp at the trade deadline in an attempt to do just that. It almost worked. Emphasis on almost. Know what? Meier, Zibanaejad and Panarin would be the perfect line.

Did you see the way Meier played last night? He almost single-handedly beat the Lightning, first by scoring the Sharks second goal of the game and then netting the overtime winner. In just 52 games this season, he already has 30 goals, the third time in his career he has cracked the 30 goal mark. And he's only 26. Just imagine what he'd do in a Rangers uniform over the next eight seasons.

Unfortunately, imagination is where this discussion will have to end. That's because as a pending RFA, Meier - who's in the last year of a four-year, $6 million AAV contract - is due for a considerable bump in pay from whichever team is the lucky recipient of his services. Think $8.5 million x 8 years. Meaning he's not a rental; he's a long-term lease.

Why is that a problem? Because the Rangers have three of their own RFAs to deal wth over the summer: Alexis Lafreniere, K'Andre Miller and Filip Chytil. The latter is finally starting to deliver on his promise. He scored two goals against the Flames Monday night and would've had a hat trick had he not passed up a golden scoring chance in the closing seconds of regulation; and the former scored the OT winner. The total price tag for all three will be considerably more than what Meier will command all by himself.

Bottom line: there's simply no way Drury can acquire Meier and keep him; not unless he decides to let Lafreniere and either Miller or Chytil walk - very unlikely - or he moves a large contract. And regarding the latter, the only contracts large enough to offset Meier's price tag all have NMCs attached to them. If you seriously think for a moment that Jacob Trouba - $8 million AAV - is going to just waive what his agent worked so hard to get him, you obviously have taken one too may pucks to the head. Long story, short, Meier isn't coming to Broadway, at least not in this lifetime.

But what about the option of just trading for him and letting him walk? The assets Drury would have to part with, both in draft picks and prospects, would make Meier the most expensive three-month rental in franchise history. And God forbid the Rangers don't win the Cup, it would have profound repercussions for years to come. Given this G.M.'s track record, it seems highly improbable he would be that reckless.

So where does that leave Drury? Ostensibly right where he was a year ago at this time. It should be noted that going into the '22 trade deadline, the Rangers were supposedly linked to several high-profile players like J.T. Miller, Mark Scheiflele and Claude Giroux? In the end, Drury passed on all of them and opted to go with role players like Copp, Vatrano, Tyler Motte and Justin Braun. All four were integral in the Rangers advancing to the Eastern Conference finals. Sometimes it's the trades you don't make that end up being the most consequential.

That's why I think Drury isn't going to make a big splash at the trade deadline; not unless the price is just right. And with several more teams looking to improve their playoff fortunes, that scenario might be next to impossible to achieve. Translation, no Patrick Kane or Vladimir Tarasenko.

Indeed, apart from Vitali Kravtsov - who seems to have worn out his welcome with Gallant - there isn't a single prospect in the organization Drury is willing to part with. Will Cuylle and Brennan Othmann are all but certain to make the team next season; and now that they're starting to click, the Kid line isn't going anywhere. Who knows, a year or two from now that line might be among the best in the league. 

Jimmy Vesey, who was a PTO coming into camp, has looked pretty good playing on the Zibanejad line. He would've had himself a pair of goals Monday night were it not for two incredible saves by Jacob Markstrom. Gallant loves 200 foot players, and Vesey, along with Barclay Goodrow, who has found a home playing with Vincent Trocheck and Chris Kreider, are the ideal Swiss army knives. You can slot them anywhere and they contribute. Believe it or not, this year's team is better and deeper than last year's team.

So maybe Drury decides he likes the makeup of the roster and elects to shore up his fourth line. Perhaps Nick Bjugstad from Arizona could be had for a third round pick. With 11 goals, he'd be perfect centering Cuylle and Sammy Blais. And with Bjugstad making only $900k this season, the Rangers could re-sign him on the cheap, just like they did with Vesey and Ben Harper. The nice thing about Drury is that, like a good chess player, he's always thinking two moves ahead.

Look, in a world with no salary cap, Timo Meier would be a New York Ranger right now. So, by the way, would at least half a dozen other players. But if memory serves, before the NHL instituted a hard salary cap, the Rangers would spend money like a drunken sailor, and for their effort typically wound up with a nasty hangover.


Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Horvat Deal Doesn't Impact Drury or the Rangers


To be honest, I was surprised that Lou Lamoriello pulled the trigger on the Bo Horvat deal. Frankly, I didn't think he had it in him. From everything we know about the man, he's strictly a role player type GM. Just take a gander at the Devils teams he put together in the '90s. He has a history of avoiding big names with equally big contracts. And make no mistake about it: it will take a lot of money to re-sign Horvat. Think at least $9.5 million x 8 years. If Mathew Barzal's AAV is $9.15 million x 8 years, you can bet the ranch the starting price for Horvat will be north of that. And that's assuming Lamoriello locks him up before the summer, which if he doesn't makes this "rental" a bust.

But while Horvat instantly becomes the Isles best player, his presence alone doesn't automatically catapult them into the postseason. That's because apart from Anders Lee there isn't a single winger on this roster that puts the fear of God into an opposing team. So unless Lou has another trade up his sleeve, I would hold off reserving those playoff tickets, if I were you. That might explain why Lamoriello protected the first round pick he sent to Vancouver. In the event they don't make into the tournament, he doesn't want to blow his chance at drafting Connor Bedard. Lou may be stubborn but he's not stupid.

So how does the Horvat deal impact Chris Drury's potential moves at the trade deadline? In a word, it doesn't. That's because Horvat is a center and the Rangers are set at that position. We can debate how effective Vincent Trocheck's offense has been since his arrival on Broadway last summer, but he is an improvement over Ryan Strome. If you can't see that, then maybe you should stop reading this blog. And after four years of promissory notes, Filip Chytil appears to finally be delivering on his potential. The third-line center has been one of the better forwards on this team the last few weeks, especially since Gerard Gallant reunited the Kid line. Drury's only problem will be re-signing him during the offseason.

As I wrote in my last piece, the Rangers number one need will be adding a scoring winger. And if they can find one cheap enough, maybe a shutdown center, as well. The problem for Drury won't be what his fellow GMs do, but available cap space. Even with Sammy Blais' contract off the books - and I assume Drury is actively working to make that a reality - the Rangers will only have about $7.5 million in deadline cap space to work with. That doesn't come come close to what they had last season when Drury was able to add four valuable pieces to help the Rangers on their playoff run.

Add to that the fact that, unlike last season when we knew who the top eight teams were in the Eastern conference, this season, there are eleven teams vying for eight playoff spots. In the Western conference, that number is ten. Meaning Drury will have a lot more chefs in the kitchen to contend with, all of them looking to make a soufflé from scratch. For an organization that values its youth and doesn't want to repeat the mistakes of the past, Drury will have to thread the needle here.

So, yes, the Horvat deal helps the Islanders, but it doesn't impact the Rangers in the slightest. Drury's job isn't any harder now than it was a day or two ago. This is still a playoff team that could use some filling out. How much will depend on what the seller is asking for and what the buyer is willing to pay.



Thursday, January 26, 2023

Rangers Still Have Some Nagging Concerns



Let's start with the good news. Since Jacob Trouba threw his helmet at the boards in a game against the Chicago Blackhawks at the Garden back on December 3 - a 5-2 loss which dropped their record to 11-10-5 - the Rangers have gone 15-4-3. During that stretch, they put together a seven-game win streak and managed to beat some pretty good teams like the Vegas Golden Knights, Toronto Maple Leafs, New Jersey Devils, Carolina Hurricanes. Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars. Even in three of the losses - 3-2 to the Pittsburgh Penguins in regulation, 2-1 to the Tampa Bay Lightning in a shootout and 3-2 to the Toronto Maple Leafs last night in overtime - the Rangers were the better team for much of the game.

In fact, the only duds I was able to find were a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Washington Capitals coming off the Christmas break and a 2-1 loss against the lowly Montreal Canadiens eleven days ago. Both games were at the Garden. I was tempted to include the 3-1 loss to the Boston Bruins last week, but chose not to. The fact is the Bruins are so hot right now, even if the Rangers had played a perfect game, I doubt they would've beaten them. Boston is on track to finish the season with 139 points. To put that in perspective, the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens, generally acknowledged to be the greatest hockey team ever assembled, had 132.

But here's the bad news. With all that the Rangers have accomplished over the last few weeks, there are still some nagging concerns that need to be addressed if they have any hope of winning the Stanley Cup.

The Power Play continues to struggle. Over the last twenty-two games, the Rangers have converted 14 of 61 power play chances for a 22.9 percent efficiency. On the surface, that doesn't sound too shabby. However, six of those power play goals were scored against the Florida Panthers, Columbus Blue Jackets, St Louis Blues and Blackhawks; teams that play defense about as well as Marv Throneberry used to play first base for the New York Mets; one goal against the Hurricanes was actually a pass that the goalie fanned on; and two more were scored while the Rangers were on a 5 on 3 man advantage. In the five games where the Rangers lost by a goal either in regulation, overtime or the shootout, they went a collective 0 for 12 on the power play, including last night's brutal 3-2 OT loss in Toronto, in which Chris Kreider shanked a tip in of a Mika Zibanejad goal-mouth pass with the Blueshirts ahead 2-1 in the third period. Just one power play goal in each of those games would've likely changed the outcome. Which brings us to the next nagging concern.

Lack of a killer instinct. There's just no way around it. This team, for all its talent, has been unable to put away its opponents. Last season, the Rangers were 48-5-4 when tied or ahead going into the third period. So far this season, the Rangers are 22-3-8 when tied or ahead going into the third. The good news is that they managed to salvage a point in each of those eight OT/SO losses; the bad news is they surrendered eight points that were theirs for the taking. And that's eight points too many for a team that's currently in third place in the Metropolitan division and is trailing the Devils by six points. Think about this. If the Rangers had scored just one additional goal in six of those eight non-regulation losses, they'd be in second place right now, only two points behind the first place Hurricanes. If they had scored an extra goal in all eight games, they'd be in first. That, right there, is the difference between having home ice in the first two rounds of the playoffs vs. playing a game seven on the road in all four.

Now you know why Chris Drury didn't look too happy in the above picture. He watched his team - a very talented team - outplay the Maple Leafs for two and half periods, only to blow a one-goal lead late in the third and lose the game in overtime. He's seen this movie too many times this season and it never ends well. He was tasked by James Dolan to turn this franchise around and make it into a legitimate contender. In just his first full season as GM and President, the Rangers made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals. They were two wins away from their first Cup final appearance since 2014 and six wins away from their first Stanley Cup championship since 1994.

He knows the stakes. He willingly signed up for them. Failure is not an option. This team, with all its warts, must win at least one round in the playoffs; two would be preferable. The fact is, though, if the regular season were to end today, the Rangers would open up against the Devils and likely lose in six or seven games.

That's why these next few weeks are so critical. The trade deadline is March 3. Drury has to find at least one scoring winger and a shutdown center. And he has to be able to acquire both without doing what his predecessor did: mortgaging the future. Assuming he can unload Sammy Blais, either through waivers or by trading him, he'll have over $7 million in deadline cap space. That should be sufficient to get the job done. The problem is he won't be the only GM looking to improve his team's playoff prospects. Across the Hudson, his counterpart Tom Fitzgerald will be working the phones for the Devils. I have no doubt Dolan has made it abundantly clear to Drury that losing to New Jersey is a non-starter. Twice before this organization has been eclipsed by a cross-town rival: the Islanders in the '80s and the Devils in the '90s and '00s. The third time, I can assure you, will not be the charm.

Last season, after 48 games, the Rangers were 31-13-4 for 66 points. This season, after 48 games, they're 26-14-8 for 60 points. Bottom line? This team can still win the Cup. Or it can go out in the first round.


Monday, January 23, 2023

The Giants Glass is Half Full


It sucks losing, I know; it particularly sucks when the opponent you lose to resides 90 miles down the Jersey Turnpike. And, trust me, Eagles fans will be insufferable if their team goes on to win the Super Bowl next month. When they won their first title in 2017, you'd have thought Vince Lombardi and Bart Starr had been resurrected from the dead. Philadelphia may be the city of brotherly love, but its sports fans can be pompous assholes.

But while the final score on Saturday may have been lopsided, in no way, shape or form did it detract from what the Giants accomplished this season. Despite what Mike Francesa said, this team exceeded all expectations. Coming off a 4-13 record - their fifth losing campaign in a row - the so-called football "experts" scoffed at the notion that Brian Daboll and Co. could turn this ship around. Indeed, yours truly had them going 6-11. That they finished 9-7-1, and made it all the way to the Divisional round of the playoffs, should qualify as the "Ripley's Believe It Or Not" story of the decade.

So now what? With the season over, what comes next? Yes, the glass is half full instead of half empty, but at the end of the day it doesn't matter. You still have half a glass of water. They may have been the most resilient team in the NFL but spit and polish doesn't get you a Super Bowl ring. As painful as it was to watch the Eagles humiliate the Giants on national TV, they were the better team in every measurable way.

Joe Schoen has his work cut out for him. Thanks to his predecessor's incompetence, he was saddled with roughly $53 million in dead cap this past season. He also had another $21.1 million of useless salary on the books in the person of Kenny Golladay, whose lone touchdown came in week 18 at Philly. Next season, Golladay's cap hit will be $21.4 million. If the Giants buy him out after June 1, the dead cap hit would be $7.9 million in 2023 and $6.8 million in 2024. When you factor in the $3.6 million in dead cap from Kadarius Toney, the Giants will have about $58 million in available cap space to go shipping with during the off season. 

That may seem like a lot of money, but it really isn't. That's because the lion's share of it will go to Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, assuming Schoen elects to re-sign them. And based on what they did in 2022, it's hard to imagine them not coming back. 

Jones threw for 3205 yards with 15 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. He also rushed for a club record 708 yards. His quarterback rating of 60.8 was 7th best in the NFL. To say he had a career year would be an understatement. Barkley had his best season as a Giant since his rookie year with 1312 rushing yards, good for 4th best in the league. More than that, he proved he could stay healthy, which was a major concern going into the season. Both players have expressed a desire to return in 2023.

But at what cost? Jones and Barkley made $8.3 and $7.2 million respectively this season. A three-year deal for Jones would likely come in around $35 million per season. Barkley supposedly turned down a three-year, $36 million offer and is reportedly looking for a contract similar to the $16 million Christian McCaffrey is making. Let's say both sides meet in the middle. $14 million plus $35 million comes out to $49 million. For those with an adding machine, that comes to $49 million, which leaves Schoen with just $9 million to plug the many holes on this team. If you were paying close attention throughout the season, you know that isn't nearly enough.

For the Giants to become genuine contenders, two areas in particular must be beefed up: wide receiver and linebacker. Regarding the former, the Giants were the only playoff team not to have a 1,000 yard receiver. Darius Slayton led them with 724 yards; Richie James, who dropped a sure touchdown on Saturday, was next with 569; and Jones's favorite target, Isaiah Hodgins - a pick up from Buffalo after being waived - had 392. It's obvious that Schoen will have to go through the draft to land an elite receiver.

Regarding the latter, the way the Eagles ran roughshod all over the Giants both on Saturday and at MetLife in December should tell you everything you need to know about their lack of depth at this position. Clearly, Jihad Ward and Jaylon Smith weren't the answers here. Again, with limited cap space, Schoen may have to address this need through the draft as well. 

One tool available to him that could help is the franchise tag. Each team is permitted to franchise tag one player per season. Considering how expensive both Jones and Barkley might be to retain, Schoen could go that route with one of them to save some cap space. And if he can get a couple of players to renegotiate their contracts, that will help as well. One thing is certain: the talent gap that exists between the Giants and the top teams in the league isn't going to be bridged anytime soon.

Bottom line: this is still a rebuild. A rebuild that may be ahead of schedule, but a rebuild nonetheless. As Schoen emphasized in his press conference yesterday, patience is important. "Teams are never one player away," he said.

It's reassuring having adults run the show, isn't it?


Monday, January 16, 2023

Giants Near Perfect Win in Minnesota



This time, there was no last second 61 yard field goal to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This time, the better team won the game.

The New York Giants flew into Minnesota and played a near perfect playoff game against the Vikings Sunday. And for their efforts, they move on to the Divisional round. The final score was 31-24, Big Blue.

Let's be honest. This was the best playoff matchup the Giants could've hoped for. The Vikings, despite an impressive 13-4 regular-season record, were quite possibly the weakest division winner in the NFL, and that includes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their defense was tied for third worst in the league along with the Colts and Lions, surrendering 427 points. A look under hood revealed a team that had been playing with fire all season long, and this time they got burned. The fact is had the Giants not committed two turnovers and had a punt blocked in week 16, they would've won that game, too. For the Jints, it came down to not shooting themselves in the foot.

But just because the Vikes were a paper tiger, that shouldn't diminish what the Giants accomplished here. Put succinctly, this was the best postseason game this franchise has played in since the 2011 season: the last time they won the Super Bowl. Just look at these stats: The Giants led in first downs: 28-21; rushing yards: 142-61; total yards: 431-332; and time of possession: 33:36-26:24. They literally made two mistakes the entire game: a procedural penalty in the red zone that wiped out a touchdown and a dropped pass by Darius Slayton late in the 4th quarter that would've allowed them to run out the clock. In the end, neither proved costly.

It goes without saying that the job Brain Daboll and his staff have done with this team is nothing short of miraculous. They literally took a 4-13 team and in less than a year transformed it into a 9-7-1 playoff team. But more than that, they have changed the culture in a locker room that for the better part of a decade had gotten used to losing. These players now believe in themselves and it shows on the field. As I wrote last October, we haven't seen such discipline from a Giants team since "the glory days of Bill Parcels."

Mike Kafka called a perfect game, dialing up just the right plays to exploit a porous Vikings defense. Daniel Jones had his best game as a Giant, completing 24 of 35 passes for 301 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed for 78 yards. Saquon Barkly had over 100 all-purpose yards; 53 on the ground and 56 through the air.

And on the other side of the ball, Wink Martindale's defense held the league's number one receiver, Justin Jefferson, to a paltry 47 yards. In the week 16 game, Jefferson lit up the Giants secondary for 133 yards. And while the Giants didn't record a single sack against Kirk Cousins, they pressured him on virtually every passing down. It will be very difficult for Joe Schoen to keep both coordinators from jumping ship next season.

But while the Giants deserve to bask in the glory of their well-deserved win, their next opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, will be far more formidable. The only game this season in which the Giants were thoroughly dominated from start to finish was against the Eagles at Met Life in week 14. Philly cruised to a 48-22 rout. Believe me when I say the score didn't remotely reflect just how bad a whooping the Eagles put on the G-Men. If the Giants have any chance at pulling off the upset Saturday, they will have to be more than just perfect; they are going to have to hope that Jalen Hurts's injured right shoulder is still bothering him. Because the Eagles, unlike the Vikings, can play defense and they know how to rush the quarterback. They led the NFL with 70 sacks this season.

No doubt about it, this will be Daboll's toughest challenge since becoming Giants' head coach. 


Thursday, January 12, 2023

The Skinny on Carlos Correa



"We were unable to reach an agreement. We wish Carlos all the best."

Well, it was nice while it lasted. 

Just over two and a half weeks after the New York Mets announced they had signed Carlos Correa to a 12 year, $315 million deal, and roughly two weeks after it was learned they had issues with his medicals, the Minnesota Twins swooped in and signed him to a 6 year, $200 million deal.

The Mets are now the second team to express concerns over the long-term durability of Correa. Only days before the Mets announced their deal, the San Francisco Giants walked away from a 13 year, $350 million deal.

Let's get one thing straight. The idea that Steve Cohen got outbid by the Twins is absurd. If you look at the offer the Mets made, they were willing to guarantee the first six years, which comes to $157.5 million. Assuming Correa passed his yearly physicals, which would've commenced in year seven, they were willing to guarantee the remaining six years for another $157.5 million. The Twins offer was $200 million over six years, with another $70 million spread out over four years, again based on him passing yearly physicals.

The difference comes out to $45 million. So basically, Correa took less term and less overall money to get more upfront money, which tells you both he and his agent Scott Boras knew that his surgically repaired ankle might not hold up the entire 12 years. Why else would they leave that much money on the table?

So why wouldn't Cohen just swallow hard and match the Twins offer? Why should he? Think about it. His overall offer was higher. All Correa had to do was submit to yearly physicals in years seven thru twelve to get his money. The fact that he balked tells you everything you need to know. If there was no problem with the ankle, then there shouldn't have been any problem taking the Mets offer.

But let's for the moment give Correa the benefit of the doubt. Let's say that he felt indignant about having to subject himself to yearly physicals and decided to grab the more lucrative upfront offer. $42.5 million over six years is a shit load of money. Properly invested, it could set Correa up for life, even if he never plays another inning after the six years are up.

If that was Boras's thinking, however, it was pretty short sighted, in my opinion. The fact is even with Correa in their lineup, the Twins went 78-84. Without Correa in their lineup, the Mets went 101-61 and made the playoffs. With Cohen willing to spend whatever it takes to win, Correa would've been far better off playing in New York than in Minnesota. Not to mention Correa could have made up the difference in salary over the six years in endorsements alone.

This is the problem I have with agents. It's all about the almighty buck with them. They seldom consider a player's career when deciding which team to go with. Mike Trout is a case in point. In 2019, Trout's agent, Craig Landis, negotiated a ten year $426 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels. At the time, it was the largest contract awarded to a professional athlete. Here's the problem. The Angels are one of the worst teams in baseball. They have not had a winning season since 2015, and last year finished third in the A.L. West with a 73-89 record. Imagine what a player like Trout (.283, 40, 80) could do on a contender.

As for the Mets, they will now have to look elsewhere for that "one more hitter" to put them over the top. It won't be easy. Some names that have surfaced are Trey Mancini, Adam Duvall and Andrew McCutchen. While all three are free agents and could be signed for considerably less than Correa, none had the kind of year Correa did in 2022. Mancini, in particular, had a disappointing postseason for the Houston Astros.

Then there's Shohei Ohtani. The Angels DH / pitcher will be a free agent next season and Cohen is one of the few owners capable of signing him to a long-term contract. As I wrote last September, Ohtani would instantly become the Mets best player. Even if it meant gutting the farm system, Billy Eppler should do it. Players like him do not grow on trees.

But that's 2024. The Mets still need another bat for the 2023 season. Even with all the money Cohen has committed to this team, they still have basically the same lineup as last year. And that was good enough for second place in the N.L. East and a first round exit in the playoffs. The Phillies are a better team and the Braves are, well, the Braves. 

Translation: the postseason is not a given.


Wednesday, January 4, 2023

It's Not "Just" A Game


What happened to Damar Hamlin in Monday night's football game between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals has no precedent in NFL history. Not even the brutal hit by Jack Tatum on Darryl Stingley in a 1978 preseason game that left Stingley paralyzed comes close.

An entire nation saw a football player suffer a cardiac arrest after making what looked like a routine tackle. And had it not been for the quick and skilled response of medical professionals in the stadium, he would never have made it to the hospital alive. Even now, this young man remains in critical condition. Assuming he survives, he is in for a very long recovery. Every decent and caring human being, fan of the sport or not, needs to keep him, his family and teammates in their prayers.

But while it was correct for the league to postpone the game Monday night after it was obvious the players and coaches were too distraught to continue, its subsequent decision Tuesday to not resume it this week is a mistake. Let me explain.

This was no mere game between two AFC rivals. It had playoff implications for no fewer than four teams: the Bills, the Bengals, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. Going into last weekend, the AFC standings were as follows: 1. Buffalo, 2. Kansas City, 3. Cincinnati, 4. Jacksonville, 5. Los Angeles, 6. Baltimore, 7 New England. Buffalo owns the tiebreaker over K.C. by virtue of a win against them in week six.

Had the Bengals beaten the Bills, they would've leapfrogged past them into the number two seed in the conference. Why is that important? Because the number two seed gets an additional home game in the playoffs. Had the Bills won, they likely would've clinched the number one seed, assuming they beat the Patriots this Sunday.

But here's the problem. Without this game in the standings, the Chiefs are now the number one seed in the conference by a half game, meaning if the Chiefs and Bills both win on Sunday, Buffalo's path to the Super Bowl would, once more, have to go through Arrow Head Stadium where they are 0 for 2 in the postseason.

But wait, it gets worse. The Ravens, who have already beaten the Bengals once this season, could've captured the AFC North with a win over them on Sunday coupled with a Bengals loss on Monday night. Now, thanks to the suits at Park Avenue, the Ravens will have to go on the road as a Wild Card.

You see how one ill-advised decision can have a domino effect?

Why would the league do such a thing knowing the ramifications? Public image, that's why. Let's be honest here for a moment. For years, the NFL has had a reputation for not giving a shit about its players. And to be honest, they haven't. The way they initially handled the concussion issue was a disgrace. 

I have no doubt that ESPN's reporting about the NFL's wanting to resume Monday night's game in five minutes is accurate. It was only after both teams walked off the field and into their respective locker rooms that the league knew it had fucked up. So they went into damage control mode, which is what they seem to excel at. If you want to know why Roger Goodell constantly gets booed at every Draft, this is why. No other professional sports commissioner is more loathe by both fans and players alike than him.

So rather than just admit they made a mistake, they decided to compound the mistake by making another, worse mistake. Mark my words, the very same people who are now self-righteously beating their chests proclaiming that "it's just a game" or "it doesn't matter" will be the first to scream bloody murder when their team loses in the playoffs because they had to play on the road instead of at home. I know fans; I know how they think, because I'm one of them.

The fact is football isn't "just" a game. It hasn't been for a very long time. It's a multi-billion dollar enterprise that is the number one sport in North America and the number two sport in Europe. You think ESPN pried Joe Buck and Troy Aikman away from Fox because they had a few extra million laying around in petty cash? They did it because it was a smart business decision. In fact, ESPN spends pretty much the entire calendar year talking incessantly about football. Even during the World Series, it got more attention.

Call me silly, but I happen to think it's possible to walk and chew gum at the same time. You can sympathize with what Hamlin and his family are going through while at the same time wanting a consequential game to be completed. It shouldn't be either or. That's a false choice, in my opinion. The correct course of action would be for the league to resume the game Thursday night and then push back both teams' subsequent Sunday games to Monday night. That way every team would play a full compliment of 17 games. More importantly, the playoff seeding would be accurate.

Knowing the NFL and its propensity for fucking up a sunset, that isn't likely to happen.


Monday, December 26, 2022

Giants in Control of Their Own Destiny


To be clear, the Giants deserved a better fate than the one they got in Minnesota on Saturday. For most of the game, they were the better team. They out-gained the Vikings, both on the ground and in the air. Despite throwing only his first interception in the last five games, Daniel Jones was the better quarterback. Indeed, with a receiving corps that consisted of Richie James, Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Clayton and Daniel Bellinger, Jones still managed to complete 30 of 42 pass attempts for 334 yards. Imagine the stats he could've put up if he had Justin Jefferson to throw to.

But, alas, Jones did throw that pick, early in the 4th quarter with his team trailing 17-13. And while it didn't lead to any points by the Vikes, it nonetheless deprived the Jints of what surely would've been at the very least a field goal and quite possibly the go-ahead touchdown. Though it wasn't the only turnover of the game - Bellinger coughed up the ball at the Minnesota 39 early in the 2nd quarter, which led to a Vikings field goal - it proved to be the most costly.

Still, if you are a fan of this team, you had to be impressed with the resiliency you saw on that field. After a blocked punt led to a Vikings touchdown that ninety-nine times out of a hundred would've iced the game, the Giants drove 75 yards in 59 seconds to score a touchdown and two-point conversion that tied the score with just over two minutes remaining. Saquon Barkley capped off the possession with a 27 yard run on 4th and 2. In the end, a 61-yard field goal as time expired was the backbreaker. 27-24, Vikings. Like I said, they deserved a better fate.

But as cruel as the football gods were to the Giants in Minnesota, they are still in control of their own destiny. That's because the Lions (7-8), Seahawks (7-8) and Commanders (7-7-1) each lost as well. All the Giants have to do this Sunday is beat the Colts and they will make the postseason for the first time since 2016. It doesn't get any simpler than that. Win and in. If that slogan isn't plastered all over walls of the Giants locker room before the game, someone needs to be fired.

There will be no excuses for not winning. None! The Colts are a hapless team in the midst of a terrible season in which their head coach, Frank Reich, was fired and replaced by ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday, who clearly should've kept his day job. Their 4-9-1 record speaks for itself. 

The Giants, on the other hand, at 8-6-1, have been one of the most overachieving and hardest working teams in the NFL this season. Only once have they lost a game in which they were favored going in: the Lions in week eleven, 31-18. And it's worth noting that Lions team is considerably better than the Colts team that will be limping into MetLife Stadium this Sunday. 

Head coach Brian Daboll - who should be on the short list for coach of the year - will have his troops ready when they take the field in front of 82,000 screaming fans. Let's put it this way: If they bring the same level of intensity to this game that they showed in Minnesota on Saturday, Big Blue will punch its ticket to the playoffs.

Look, I know nothing is ever etched in stone. Let's not forget this is the same franchise that gave us "The Fumble" back in 1978. Anything is possible. But given what we've seen so far from this Giants team, they should be able to take care of business against the Colts. If they don't; if they squander this opportunity, it will be a very, very long off season - even for an organization that is in year one of yet another rebuild.


Tuesday, December 6, 2022

Cohen Made the Correct Call on deGrom


In the end, it didn't come down to the dollars but the term. The Mets had a three-year, $120 million offer on the table to keep Jacob deGrom in Queens. That's $40 million per season. That wasn't good enough. So the two-time Cy Young award winner bolted and signed a five-year, $185 million deal with the Texas Rangers last week. At $37 million per season, deGrom traded $3 million in annual salary for an extra two years of job security.

It was a deal Steve Cohen had no choice but to reject. To commit five years to a pitcher who over the last two seasons started a grand total of 26 games and had only two more innings pitched last season than team closer Edwin Diaz would've been insane. The fact that they were willing to go as high as three years is proof that they were serious about retaining deGrom. 

And while I don't begrudge any professional athlete for getting the most money they can, my gut tells me that this is a move deGrom will come to regret, and probably sooner rather than later. The Rangers were one of the worst teams in baseball last season, and even if the righty regains his Cy Young dominance, the prospects of Texas making the postseason next year or any year in the future are remote at best, especially in a division that already has the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners.

So where does this leave the Mets? Fortunately, we didn't have long to wait for an answer. Monday, they replaced deGrom by signing three-time Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander to a two-year $86.6 million contract. A little more than Cohen probably wanted to fork over, but given the circumstances, necessary. Last season, Verlander went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA for the World Series winning Astros. In 175 innings pitched, he surrendered only 116 hits while striking out 185.

If there's one concern I have here, it's the age at the top of the starting rotation. Verlander will be 40 by the time he takes the mound for the Amazins next season. When paired with 39 year old Max Scherzer, the Mets will have the oldest one-two punch in the big leagues. And given how Scherzer began to break down near the end of the season, Cohen is taking a huge risk here.

Another concern I have is the amount of money being doled out to Verlander and Scherzer. Last season, the Mets had a MLB high team payroll of $251 million. With the Diaz extension, the possible return of Brandon Nimmo, and new contracts for arbitration eligible Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil, that payroll will likely swell to $280 million, of which Verlander and Scherzer will command $86.6 million. That's a lot of up front Benjamin Franklins for a team that still needs a third starter and has a lack of depth in the bullpen. The reason the Astros won the World Series last season was because they had the best and deepest pen in baseball. If Billy Eppler doesn't address this sore spot, the Mets will go out early again in 2023.

But for now, at least, Cohen did what he had to do. He replaced an ace with an ace, albeit, one who's six years older. And he has shown the Mets faithful that he is no Jeff Wilpon. He's willing to spend whatever it takes to make sure this team is a contender. 

Good for him.


Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Rangers are Running Out of Time to Right Ship


This is getting serious now. This is no mere slump. Twenty-three games into the season and if the playoffs were to start tomorrow, the Rangers would be on the outside looking in. Incredible, isn't it? Last year a conference finalist; this year eliminated from the postseason.

So what's wrong? I believe it comes to three things.

Igor Shesterkin: Let's face it, last year's Vezina trophy winner just hasn't lived up to his billing. While he's been good, and at times very good, he has yet to steal a game this season. Even in the one shutout he posted against the Flyers, it was Carter Hart who wound up stealing a point, keeping the Blueshirts off the scoreboard until Chris Kreider beat him on a breakaway in OT. 

Pucks that were once routinely turned aside, are now finding their way in the back of the net. Shesterkin has allowed a questionable goal in each his last two starts: the game-tying goal against the Oilers and the go-ahead goal against the Devils. Had last year's Igor been in net, the Rangers likely would've won both games instead of losing them.

Inconsistent play: Too often this season, the Rangers have made middling goalies look like all stars. Including the Flyers game, on five separate occasions, the Rangers have been stymied by the opposing goalie. Despite outshooting the Devils 17-4 in the third period of Monday night's loss, all they could muster was one goal - a power play tally by Vincent Trocheck off a rebound with six minutes to go.

It has been perplexing to say the least to see a team with so much elite-level talent, a team that has been averaging 30 plus shots per game, unable to get its offense untracked. Indeed, if you take away the 8-2 romp they had over the Red Wings in Detroit, only twice this month have the Rangers scored more than three goals in a game, and that was against the lowly Coyotes (4) and the Kings (5). Either they get off to a good start and take their foot off the accelerator, or they fall behind early and can't catch up.

A large part of the inconsistency has been the power play. In a word, it's become predictable as dirt. Fox passes to Panarin on right wing, Panarin finds Zibanejad with a cross-ice pass, and Zibanejad buries a one timer past the goalie. Perfect, right? Except every team in the league with a scouting department worth a damn knows that cross-ice pass to Zibanejad is coming and they're breaking it up. As a result, the Rangers have gone 4 for 28 (14.2 percent) on the power play over their last eight games.

But the bulk of the inconsistency is owed directly to a lack of effort. By my count, the Rangers have had a total of three games in which they've played a solid sixty minutes: the 3-1 season opener win against the Lightning, the 3-2 OT loss to the Avalanche and the 1-0 OT shutout against the Flyers. That's it. Three games out of twenty-three. That's not good enough to even qualify for the playoffs, much less win the Stanley Cup.

Lack of toughness: Did you see it? I'm sure you did. Seconds after Leon Draisaitl put the Oilers ahead 4-3 late in the third period, he skated by Jacob Trouba and knocked the defenseman's stick out of his hands. If that had happened last season, Draisaitl would've been challenged immediately, if not by Trouba, then certainly by someone else. No way that shit would've gone unanswered. Excuses like they didn't want to take a penalty and ruin any chance of tying the game just aren't cutting it.

By now, every team in the NHL has gotten a hold of that video and I guarantee you they're taking notes. The team that last season stood up for each other now looks more like the team David Quinn coached in 2020-21. And we all know how that ended: A .500 team that got run out of every rink in the league. Of all the problems besetting this team, this is the one that, if not corrected, will sink the season. The offense will finally break through; Igor will rediscover his game; but a spine is something a team either has or it doesn't have. There's no in-between.

Bottom line, time is running out on the Rangers. This isn't last season when we knew who the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference were and the only question was the seating. This season there are approximately ten teams - eleven if you count the Capitals - that will be jockeying for eight playoff spots. At the rate they're going, the Rangers are going to run out of runway soon.

If this team is going to turn the season around, it had better start before it's too late.