Thanks for the Memories, Keith

There are two dates that will always live in the hearts and minds of Mets fans everywhere: June 15, 1977 and June 15, 1983. The former was the date that Tom Seaver was traded away to the Cincinnati Reds for a collection of players that were little better than triple A prospects. The latter marked the arrival of Keith Hernandez from the St. Louis Cardinals.

The years in between represented the darkest period in Mets history. Not even the first seven years of the franchise's storied existence (1962-68), in which they were known as lovable losers, comes close. At least those teams had an excuse. There was no excuse for what this fanbase had to endure from 1977 thru 1983.

It is difficult to explain to anyone who wasn't alive at the time just how depressing it was being a Mets fan during that period. They weren't just bad, they were the laughingstock of professional baseball. And what made it even more humiliating was the fact that the hated Yankees were winning World Series titles just across Flushing Bay.

After principal owner Joan Payson died in 1975, her daughter Linda de Roulette took over the day to day operations of the team and drove it right into the ground. Three times they flirted with losing a hundred games (1977, '79 & '82) and three times the baseball gods took pity on them. When the team was finally sold at the end of the '79 season, it took the new ownership group three years just to replenish the pipeline with talent, that's how bare the cupboard was.

When Whitey Herzog traded his gold-glove first baseman to the Mets in June of '83, the prevailing logic was that he was exiling him to the baseball equivalent of Siberia. Seriously, this was where ballplayers came to end their careers, not rejuvenate them. That's surely what Hernandez must've thought when he arrived at Shea Stadium.

But a funny thing happened on the way to Siberia. Far from being a graveyard, the Mets were developing some of the best, young talent in the majors. Players like Ron Darling and Darryl Strawberry were already starting to make their mark. And down in Tidewater, a young pitcher by the name of Dwight Gooden was turning heads. Hernandez liked what he saw and signed a five-year contract with the team.

The years 1984 thru 1988 were the most successful in Mets history. Two division titles and a World Series championship. The team averaged 97 wins and set franchise attendance records. For the first time since that miracle year of 1969, the Mets owned the back pages of the New York Post and the Daily News.

It was fun being a Mets fan back then. They were no longer the punch line of every late-night comic. Almost overnight, they went from being a perennial door mat to a contender. They, and not the Yankees, were the toast of the town. But none of that would've been possible if Hernandez had opted to leave after the '83 season, which was his right. His decision to stay gave this franchise something it hadn't had since Seaver was sent packing: respectability.

Hernandez just wasn't a good ball player; he was the consummate professional. He was by far the best first baseman I ever saw play the position. The way he played the game didn't just earn him gold gloves, it earned him the respect of his peers. His teammates saw in him a player who left it all on the field and they wanted to emulate him.

He had grown accustomed to winning in St. Louis and he expected this team to do the same. They came close in '84 and '85, finishing second both times to the Cubs and Cardinals respectively, before finally winning it all in '86. Had it not been for a freak gardening injury that sidelined Bobby Ojeda for the entire '87 season, they most likely would've repeated as World Series champs. And if baseball had had a wild card back then, it's entirely possible they would've made the postseason all five years, that's how good they were.

But I keep coming back to Hernandez. Yes, he had some help. The trades for Ray Knight and Gary Carter gave the Mets one of the most potent lineups in the National League. But apart from Tom Terrific, no other player who's ever worn the orange and blue has meant as much to this franchise as number 17 has. He walked the walk as well as he talked the talk.

That's why it was emotionally gratifying to see Hernandez being honored at Citifield Saturday afternoon by the organization he has been a part of for almost 40 years. It was shameful that Fred and Jeff Wilpon never retired his number. But then what else would you expect from Frick and Frack? If there was a way to screw up a sunset, you could always count on those two knuckleheads to do it. Whatever else you might think about Steve Cohen, he hasn't been shy about what his intentions are regarding this team. Retiring Keith Hernandez's number was the least he could do.

As a Mets fan, I can't thank Hernandez enough for all the double plays he started, the clutch hits he got, the example he set.

To quote the late, great Bob Hope, thanks for the memories, Keith.

Latest Pierre-Luc Dubois Rumors Have That "Déjà Vu All Over Again" Look and Feel

It was about this time last year that rumors started surfacing about Jack Eichel being traded to New York in a mega deal that lit up the Twitterverse. The names that were being tossed around as a possible return haul included Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko, a number one pick and a prospect or two. Putting aside Eichel's neck injury - which thankfully has healed since - it was simply too steep a price to pay, I argued at the time. And besides, the contract ($10 million AAV) would hamper Chris Drury's ability to field a roster capable of competing in an NHL that demands, above all else, depth.

Well, as it turns out, Eichel wound up in Vegas, and the Rangers, with a slightly more robust lineup, had their best season in seven years, advancing all the way to the Eastern Conference finals before finally losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Funny how things have a way of turning out.

Fast forward a year and another high-profile center's name has popped up as a potential trade target for the Blueshirts. To be clear, Pierre-Luc Dubois would make a great addition to the Rangers lineup. He's young (24), big (6'3" 218 lbs), and, unlike Eichel last year, completely healthy and ready to go on day one. And, as Larry Brooks wrote in The New York Post, he was Artemi Panarin's center back in the days when both played for the Columbus Blue Jackets, so there's no chemistry issue here. 

I confess, the thought of this team having two number-one lines next season intrigues me. It also would make it harder for opposing coaches to key on Mika Zibanejad's line the way Rod Brind'Amour and Jon Cooper did in last year's playoffs. And let's be honest, the Rangers haven't had a genuine one-two punch since 1997 when Mark Messier and Wayne Gretzky were reunited for the last time. That was twenty-five years ago!

But I keep coming back to a salary cap that increases about the same way glaciers melt. The last two seasons, the cap was stuck at $81.5 million; next season, it increases to $82.5 million; and the season after that, it goes up to $83.5 million. It won't be until the 2025-26 season that the salary cap will resume its pre-pandemic upward trend. In the meantime, every general manager in the league will have to make some hard and unpleasant choices with respect to their rosters. Just yesterday, Minnesota Wild GM Bill Guerin was forced to trade the rights to RFA Kevin Fiala in exchange for a first round pick because they couldn't afford to re-sign him. The explosive winger finished second in team scoring behind Kirill Kaprizov. Think about the anguish that must've caused Guerin, who now has the unenviable task of finding a replacement for such a talented player.

Guerin isn't the only GM up against it. In Colorado, Joe Sakic is going to lose the services of his number two center in Nazem Kadri to free agency because the Avalanche don't have the cap space to re-sign him. In Florida, Bill Zito has about $3 million in cap space with which to sign six players. I imagine he's going to have a pretty busy summer. If Panthers fans thought it couldn't get any worse than being swept in the second round, just wait until they take a gander at what next season's roster is likely to look like. To quote the late, great Robin Williams, "Reality, what a concept."

Compared to what some of his fellow brethren are going through, Drury is living the high life. Including Vitali Kravtsov and Braden Schneider, the Rangers have 16 players on the active roster. The maximum number allowed is 23. That leaves them with about $10 million available to sign seven players. If he can unload Patrik Nemeth's contract, he would have an extra $2.5 million in the kitty, but then he would have to find someone to replace Nemeth, so some of that $2.5 million would be re-allocated.

Assume for a moment that Winnipeg GM Kevin Sheveldayoff is in a good mood and only asks for Filip Chytil and a draft pick in return for Dubois. Let's also assume that Vladimir Putin pulls all his troops out of Ukraine tomorrow while we're at it. The Rangers would gain $2.3 million in cap space, but would have to sign Dubois, who last season earned $5 million and is arbitration eligible. That means even without a long-term deal, Dubois is looking at an increase of somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.2 million. If the Rangers want to avoid a messy arbitration battle, they will have to come to the table with a substantial offer. Think $7 million x 7 years. That comes out to $49 million over the duration of the contract. And that assumes Dubois would even agree to that number. Let's not forget it costs a bit more to live in New York than it does in Manitoba. For what a two-bedroom apartment in Manhattan goes for, you can buy three four-bedroom, two-bath houses in Winnipeg and still have enough left over to buy your own Zamboni. 

But let's say they get it done. Consider the ramifications here. The Rangers would have a staggering $51.1 million committed to just six players. That's 62 percent of the team's salary cap. To put that in perspective, the top six players on the Toronto Maple Leafs comprise 65 percent - $53.5 million - of the team's salary cap. And the last time the Leafs won a playoff series, George Bush was still insisting the U.S. had won the war in Iraq. With K'Andre Miller and Alexis Lafreniere both up for extensions in '23, the Blueshirts are staring at cap hell. Is this really the model Drury wants to adopt? A roster so top heavy it will fail in the postseason? Somehow I doubt it.

What I think is going on here is that Drury is exploring all his options, which is the smart thing to do. Only a fool would shut the door on the possibility of adding a player as talented as Dubois. And Drury is no fool. But make no mistake about it, he took notes during the playoffs and he knows that even though they were denied in their quest for a threepeat, the Tampa Bay Lightning model is the correct way to go. If he's not entirely sold that Chytil has what it takes to assume the duties of 2C, and he's unable to re-sign Andrew Copp to a manageable number, he will look outside the organization for a player that will meet the team's needs while affording him the financial flexibility to build a Stanley Cup championship roster.

That's how every team that's been successful has done it in the cap era. The fact is, as exciting as fantasy teams might be, they seldom win in the playoffs. That's why they're called fantasy teams.

The Sixty-four Thousand Dollar Question Drury Must Answer

With the news that Chris Drury has re-signed Vitali Kravtsov ($875k) and Sammy Blais ($1.525m) to one-year contracts, the Rangers now have 17 players on the active roster with $10 million in cap space leftover to field a team next season. Assuming they elect to go with the full compliment of 23 players, that comes out to an average of $1.66 million per remaining player. And, yes, I'm being facetious.

I don't for a minute believe that it is an accident that Drury locked up both Kravtsov and Blais first. The former gives him some flexibility at right wing in the event that another team swoops in with an offer sheet on Kaapo Kakko that the Rangers will not be able to meet; the latter addresses a need this team still has: a physical north-south winger who's good along the boards and between the dots.

But the biggest question mark hanging out there is who will get the coveted number two center slot? Both Ryan Strome and Andrew Copp are UFAs and will no doubt be looking for huge increases off of their last contracts: Strome at $4.5 million and Copp at $3.6 million. Both had career years and both complimented Artemi Panarin very well. Of the two, Copp is the better option, registering 18 points in 16 regular-season games and 14 points in 20 postseason games. He also had a better face-off percentage than Strome - 49 to 43 - and there was a definite chemistry between him and Panarin.

But if reports are accurate that Strome's agent turned down an offer of $5.25 million at the start of the season and Copp's camp is looking to test the free agent waters in July, Drury may have no choice but to look elsewhere to fill the 2C. But where?

Don't look now but it's entirely conceivable that come training camp Filip Chytil is the team's number two center. From a purely financial position, it makes perfect sense. Assuming he can entice Kakko to accept a two-year bridge deal at $2.3 million, Drury would have himself one helluva cheap second line. And if what we saw in the playoffs wasn't a mirage but the real deal, the Rangers would have one of the youngest and most dynamic trio of forwards in the NHL. Their emergence as a cohesive threat would allow Gerard Gallant to assemble a super line of Mika Zibanejad at center, Panarin at left wing and Chris Kreider at right.

Think of what Drury could do with the extra $5 million in cap money he would otherwise have to spend on either Copp or Strome. He could shore up that all-important third line that often makes or breaks teams. As I wrote in my last piece, both Sidney Crosby and Steven Stamkos had their way with the Rangers in these playoffs. And if Sebastian Aho had been a better finisher, the Tampa Bay Lightning would've been playing the Carolina Hurricanes instead of the Rangers in the Eastern Conference finals. I'm sure that deficiency hasn't gone unnoticed by Drury, who since he ascended to the dual position of President and GM has been methodical with every move he's made with the notable exception of the Patrik Nemeth signing. That one defies all logic.

Let's be honest here: apart from his friendship with Panarin, does Strome really get this team any closer to a Stanley Cup? He's an above-average skater with an average shot and not much net-front presence. Were it not for the value he brings to the power play, he'd be no better than a third-line center. Drury should consider himself fortunate that he rejected his offer of $5.25 million. As for Copp, he's never recorded more than 39 points in a single season. Like Strome, his owes most of the success he had here to playing alongside Panarin. Rangers fans maybe disappointed with the all-star winger's output, particularly against the Lightning, but Panarin is an elite player who brings out the most in his line mates. If Gallant elects not to create a super line and instead keeps Panarin on the second line, I wouldn't be shocked at all if Chytil ends up having a career year. That's how valuable number 10 is.

Now I know what you're thinking and you can bet the ranch Drury is thinking the same thing. Is Chytil durable enough to play an entire season? That's the sixty-four thousand dollar question Drury must answer. Let's face it: the guy's as brittle as a candy bar. It doesn't much matter how well the kid plays if he can't stay on the ice. The hit he took in game four of the conference finals didn't look all that serious at the time, yet it was enough to sideline him the rest of the game. In his four seasons in the NHL, the most games he's ever played is 75, and that was in his rookie year. This year he missed 15 games; the year before he missed 14. Missing five or six games is acceptable; missing 15 is a problem.

Kakko hasn't exactly been a model of durability either, but that's where Kravtsov comes in. In a pinch, he could easily slot over and take his place. Drury's ability to build a roster deep enough to overcome the odd injury or two will determine whether this team takes the next step in 2023 or is simply a flash in the pan.

As for the third line, as I wrote in my last piece, Drury was definitely interested in signing shutdown center Phillip Danault last summer, but the L.A. Kings outbid him. He's still looking for that center and Nick Paul could be just what the doctor ordered. The burly 219 pounder is having quite an impressive postseason with the Lightning and would make an ideal fit between Barclay Goodrow and Kravtsov. Drury might be able to ink him for $2.5 million x 3 years.

That would leave enough money to get a backup goalie like Braden Holtby ($1.5m), a left-handed defenseman to replace Nemeth ($900k), who I assume will be dealt soon, and a fourth-line center, I'm thinking a Brian Boyle reunion ($800k). They still have Dryden Hunt in reserve if someone gets hurt. And ya never know, Will Cuylle might even get a shot. Bottom line, hopefully we've seen the last of Greg McKegg and Julien Gauthier. 

All this is speculation, of course. For all we know, Drury is cooking up a major trade for a number two center as we speak. But until something concrete happens, it's always fun to speculate.

Over and Out

It's finally over. The New York Rangers' season came to a merciless end Saturday night in Tampa. After falling behind 0-2 in the series, the Lightning swept the last four games to close out the Blueshirts in six. Not even a 5-0 record when facing elimination was enough to save them. In the end, the most resilient team in the NHL simply ran out of gas. Igor Shesterkin was the only thing keeping this game from getting ugly. 

So now what?

Well for starters, let's state the obvious. This was a very successful season. Seriously, if you had the Rangers six wins away from a Stanley Cup in October, you're either a time traveler or high. Chris Drury should be commended for the moves he made both at the trade deadline and before the start of the season. They made this team deeper and harder to play against. And while we're at it, let's also give a shoutout to Jeff Gorton. Most of the players on that ice were acquired by him one way or the other. His decision in 2018 to rebuild was, in retrospect, the correct one, and it is because of his vision and courage that this franchise is on solid footing for the foreseeable future.

And despite some puzzling moves, particularly the benching of Kaapo Kakko in favor of Dryden Hunt in an elimination game, Gerard Gallant did an incredible job behind the bench all year. After three years of David Quinn, this team needed a breath of fresh air and Gallant was the perfect choice. I still maintain he should've won the Jack Adams award.

But as successful as this season was, the real work begins immediately. That's because the Rangers have a number of holes to fill and not a lot of resources with which to fill them. Indeed, they have just over $12* million in available cap space next year with only 14 players under contract. Given that the league allows each team up to 23 players, that doesn't leave a lot of room for Drury to construct a roster. If he can move Patrik Nemeth's contract in the off season, that'd give him an additional $2.5 million to play with.

The first hole is second-line center. It's practically a given that UFA Ryan Strome will not be returning. The fact that Drury didn't lock him up before the season began was a bad omen; that they traded for Andrew Copp at the deadline was a hint that they were willing to move on. But while Copp would be an improvement over Strome, Drury may elect to look outside the organization, especially if he feels Filip Chytil, who had a solid postseason, isn't up to the challenge. Mark Scheifele's name continues to pop up. The Winnipeg Jets center has two years remaining on a $6.125 AAV contract. A package of Kakko, Chytil, Nils Lundkvist and a future draft pick might be enough to pry him away.

Then there's right wing, a sore spot all season long that Drury was able to address in March with the acquisitions of Frank Vatrano and Copp. Vatrano will likely be too expensive to retain, and Copp, if he stays, it will be as a center. The news that Vitali Kravtsov was re-signed to a one-year contract at $875k, makes it clear that Drury is trying to get as creative as he can to shore up his lineup's deficiencies. The Russian winger had a falling out with the organization last fall that led him to bolt for the KHL this season. If both sides can bury the hatchet, the Rangers may have struck pay dirt here. The kid's got talent; it's just a matter of whether Gallant can harness it. And if Alexis Lafreniere can successfully make the transition to right wing, the first two lines should be set next season, regardless of what happens with Kakko.

But while plugging both these holes is essential for Drury, a more glaring and pressing need emerged in these playoffs. Put succinctly, the Rangers do not have a bonafide checking line. Let's face it, Kevin Rooney and Ryan Reaves were ostensibly useless. Turns out the former isn't much of a checker and the latter is way too slow to keep up with the league's elite-level forwards. In the Pittsburgh series, Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust did pretty much whatever the hell they wanted; and in the Tampa series, Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat looked like they were running a track meet. In neither instance did the Rangers appear to have an answer.

If you're thinking checking lines are overrated, consider this: Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn and Brandon Hagel didn't score an even strength goal against the Rangers the entire series, and Jon Cooper could not have cared less. They collectively held Mika Zibanejad's line to three even-strength goals, none in the final four games. And against the Florida Panthers, they completely shut down Alexander Barkov's line. That might explain why Drury was so interested in signing Phillip Danault over the summer. The former Montreal center played an integral role in the Canadiens drive to the finals last season. Can you imagine what a line of Danault, Barclay Goodrow and Tyler Motte would've done for the Rangers in this year's playoffs? Perhaps they wouldn't have needed a full seven games to dispatch the Penguins and Hurricanes. Perhaps they'd be playing the Colorado Avalanche this week for the Cup.

Yes, there's a lot on Drury's plate. The draft is coming up, and after that, free agency. The expectations will be high for this franchise going into next season. That's what happens when you advance to the conference finals after a five-year hiatus from the playoffs. The core is pretty much set: Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba and, of course, Harry Houdini himself, Igor Shesterkin. But cores don't win Stanley Cups. If they did, both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers would have at least two a piece.

In the end, the Lightning reminded the Rangers that championships are earned, not awarded.

* An earlier version of this post reported that the Rangers have just over $13 million of available cap space next season, but that doesn't include Braden Schneider's contract which pays $925k. That brings the number down to just over $12 million, and that will be reduced further if Vitali Kravtsov makes the team next year. I have made the correction.

We've Seen This Movie Before

One of the problems with being 61, apart from the occasional aches and pains that go along with it, is that I'm old enough to have seen a lot of shit go down that others have to look up to find out. As a sports fan who's had a love / hate relationship with my teams over the years, I've had my heart broken more times than I care to remember. The number one repeat offender has been the New York Rangers.

It hasn't been easy rooting for a team that has exactly one Stanley Cup to show for its efforts since the end of World War II. 1972, 1979, 1981-84, 1992, 1997, 2012, 2014, 2015. The list of near misses is as long as it is depressing, and it's about to grow by one.

You don't seriously think that a Jon Cooper-coached team is going to blow a chance to close out a best of seven Eastern Conference final this weekend, do you? If you do, you haven't been paying close attention to the way the Tampa Bay Lightning have played over the last three postseasons. Yes, the Islanders extended them to a seventh game in last year's semifinals, and yes they had to come from 3-2 down against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round this year. But those were the exceptions, not the rule. In every other series this team has played in, whenever they smelled blood they went in for the kill. Just ask the Florida Panthers about the Lightning's killer instinct. They were literally swept out of the playoffs in the second round.

Rangers fans have seen this movie before. During their Stanley Cup reign in the '80s, the Islanders played the Blueshirts four times and went four for four. It was frustrating knowing that no matter how hard they played, the results were always the same. Watching game five last night at the Garden, I had a sense of déjà vu. The Rangers played what was inarguably their best game since game two of the series. They skated with authority, they took the body, they cycled, they even struck first: a seeing-eye puck that found its way passed Andrei Vasilevskiy. It didn't matter. The Lightning got two of their own seeing-eye pucks passed Igor Shesterkin. In the end, the experience and poise of Tampa was simply too much to overcome. The Rangers played not to lose; the Lightning played to win. That was the difference in the game.

We can talk about the overpassing till the cows come home. David Quinn wasn't able to correct it and neither has Gerard Gallant. Face it, it's in their DNA. Last night, it was Andrew Copp's turn in the barrel. You live by the pass, you die by the pass. Right now they're dying by it. My only complaint was the way Gallant utilized the kid line. Given how completely ineffective Mika Zibanaejad and Chris Kreider have been over the last two games, it was disappointing to say the least that they had only eleven minutes of ice time as a unit, not even a minute more than the fourth line. The team's most effective forechecking line in the postseason and they barely touched the ice in the third period. If the season ends Saturday, Gallant will have some 'splainin' to do here.

So now it's onto Tampa for game six. Can the Rangers extend the series to a seventh game at the Garden? They are 5-0 in elimination games, so I suppose anything is possible. But consider this: after being pushed to the brink by the lowly Pittsburgh Penguins in the '82 preliminaries, the Islanders went 12-2 over the next three rounds to capture their third consecutive Cup. Since dispatching the Leafs in round one, the Bolts are 7-2.

I guess what I'm trying to say is don't go betting the kid's tuition on it.

Rangers Need To Wake Up

After game four of the Pittsburgh series, Gerard Gallant said his team was "soft;" after game five of the Carolina series, Gallant said his team was "tired;" and after game four of the Tampa series, Gallant said his team wasn't willing to "pay the price."

The common theme in all three games - aside from the fact that they were losses - is that the Rangers simply didn't do enough to win. Translation, sometimes your biggest opponent is the one staring back at you in the mirror.

None of that is meant to detract from the excellent job the Lightning have done since going down 0-2 in the Eastern Conference finals. Make no mistake about it: the Lightning have awoken and are playing every bit like the two-time Stanley Cup champions they are. They are making smart passes out of their zone; their speed is proving problematic for the Rangers D; they are clogging up the neutral zone, thus making it difficult for the Rangers to gain the offensive zone; and with each shift, Andrei Vasilevskiy is looking more and more like the Conn Smythe trophy winner he was last season.

But let's be honest here. Did anyone seriously believe that this proud team was going to lay down and call it a night after game two? Did the Rangers lay down after the Penguins routed them 7-2 in game four? The answer to both is no. Good teams find a way to bounce back, and that's exactly what the Lightning have done; they've bounced back. To quote Gallant's double negative, "They've won, what, ten series in a row? We're going to have to take it from them. They're not going to give us nothing."

To beat the Lightning, the Rangers are going to have to bring a helluva lot more effort than they showed in games three and four. Apart from the two power play goals they scored in game three and the meaningless one they scored late in game four, Vasilevskiy was hardly tested. He had maybe a half dozen high-quality scoring chances against in game three and almost none in game four.

New York hasn't scored at 5v5 since Mika Zibanejad's goal at 1:21 of the third period in game two. If you're counting, that's over 138 minutes without an even strength goal. Not to be a dick, but the Rangers couldn't beat the Hartford Wolf Pack with that kind of offensive output. If that metric doesn't change immediately, this will be the last home game of the season for the Blueshirts. The Bolts will wrap this series up in six.

So how do the Rangers turn it around? It won't be easy. This isn't the Pens they're playing, or even the Canes. Those opponents were tough, but they lacked the one thing the Lightning have in droves: playoff experience. Tampa has been here before; they know what it takes to win. And they will draw from that collective experience when they take the ice tonight. And to make matters worse, the Rangers might not have Ryan Strome or Filip Chytil in the lineup. Strome suffered a lower body injury in game three and Chytil suffered an upper body injury in game four. Even if both are able to return, they will not be at a hundred percent.

For starters, the Rangers have to play with the same sense of desperation the Lightning played with in games three and four. That means they must be willing to "pay the price," as their coach said. It isn't just enough to throw their weight around, they have to sellout in the corners where hockey games are often decided. In both games at Tampa, the Lightning virtually owned the boards. If you can't mount an effective forecheck in this league, you aren't going to win many games.

Another thing they have to do is dump the puck into the offensive zone. The Lightning are borrowing a page out of the Hurricanes playbook by taking away the passing lanes that allow the Rangers to set up their transition game. It's the number one reason why their 5v5 offense has stalled. To circumvent this, the Rangers not only have to be willing to shoot the puck into the zone, they have to do so with authority. They have to get on Tampa's wings quick and force their defensemen to handle the puck more. Over the last two games, it has been way too easy for the Lightning to get the puck out of their end.

The good news is that if the Rangers can manage even one even strength goal and convert on a couple of power plays, Igor Shesterkin should be able to make that stand up. He's been there for this team all season long, but as we saw in game three, he can't do it all by himself.  To paraphrase Ringo Starr, he needs a little help from his friends.

An Opportunity Squandered

I remember the moment like it was yesterday. It was game two of the 1979 Stanley Cup finals and the Rangers had already captured home ice from the Montreal Canadiens. On the strength of two first-period goals by Anders Hedberg and Ron Duguay, they were on their way to taking a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. Thirty-nine years of futility finally looked like they were about to come to an end.

That was when Mario Trembley's seemingly innocent cross-ice pass deflected off the leg of Yvon Lambert, passed a stunned John Davidson and into the net. The Forum crowd went wild, but more importantly, the home team woke up. The Canadiens scored the next five goals, on way to a 6-2 rout, and went onto win their fourth Cup in a row. Thirty-nine years became forty, and then forty became forty-one, and then, well, you get the picture.

It's too early to tell whether Nikita Kucherov's power play goal in game three of this best of seven series between the two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning and the Rangers will have the same impact Lambert's goal had 43 years ago. But the parallels are unmistakable. Like that '79 team, this Rangers team had a lead of 2-0 on the strength of two power play goals by Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider in the second period. And though the Blueshirts were being outshot by the Bolts, they had the better scoring chances halfway through the game. A win meant a 3-0 stranglehold lead in the series.

But a questionable interference penalty on Jacob Trouba at 10:09 of the second period opened the door for Tampa Bay and they walked right through it. The ensuing power play goal by Kucherov at 10:50 brought the crowd to its feet and gave the Lightning the spark they were looking for. They would go on to score the next two goals, the last one coming with 41.6 seconds left in the third period.

Bye, bye dreams of a sweep. We now have a series on our hands. And though the Rangers still hold a 2-1 lead in games, this is NOT the same Lightning team they dominated in the first two games at Madison Square Garden; not even close. Tampa Bay was the better team at 5v5 and bottled up New York the latter half of the game. If you had a dollar for every scoring chance the Rangers had in the third period, you wouldn't have enough money to buy a happy meal.

To keep this series from going back to the Garden tied, the Blueshirts are going to have to elevate their level of play significantly. While Igor Shesterkin is still the better goalie, Andrei Vasilevskiy has suddenly rediscovered his game. He robbed Barclay Goodrow and Tyler Motte on consecutive shots in the first to keep the contest scoreless. He has a history of playing better the deeper a series goes. Just ask the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers; both teams are playing golf right now because of him.

It may well be that all that happened Sunday was that a desperate Lightning team did what it had to do to get back in the series. The Rangers still have a dangerous power play and if Trouba doesn't get called for those two third-period penalties, who knows, maybe we ARE talking about a sweep after all.

Coulda, shoulda, woulda isn't going to help the Rangers now. They had an opportunity to drive the Tampa Bay Lightning to the brink of the abyss and they squandered it. They broke the cardinal rule every sports team knows by heart: never let your opponent up off the mat.

Well this isn't your run-of-the-mill opponent we're talking about here. This is a two-time Stanley Cup championship team that has gone through hell and back together. Maybe the strain of playing all those playoff games catches up to them, or maybe they summon the will to end this marvelous postseason journey the Rangers have been on.

We'll know soon enough.

17-1

Funny thing about streaks. They have a nasty habit of being broken. For instance, going into last night's game-two matchup at the Garden against the Rangers, the Tampa Bay Lightning were 17-0 after a playoff loss.

Make that 17-1.

That was no "rusty" team the Blueshirts were playing out there. And that sure as shit wasn't a backup goaltender they beat three times. Apart from the first four minutes of the opening period and a late push in the final three minutes of the third, the Rangers were the better team throughout this game. Indeed, had it not been for a couple of lucky breaks that bailed out Andrei Vasilevskiy in the second, this game would've gotten out of hand for the defending Stanley Cup champions.

The Rangers out skated the Lightning; their passes were crisper; and their transition game has never been better. The visitors were a step or two behind all night and spent most of the game chasing the puck. At one point, New York was out shooting the Bolts 22-10. Adam Fox had his best game of the playoffs, setting up a goal by Kaapo Kakko in the first and Mika Zibanejad in the third. Once more, the Kid line dominated in the offensive zone, generating several high-danger scoring chances.

Over the last two and a half postseasons, Tampa Bay has played 61 games, beating ten opponents in the process. But they have never faced an opponent like this: a team that plays a similar style of hockey and that has an elite-level goalie of its own in net. After surviving a grueling seven game series against the Carolina Hurricanes, the Rangers are beating the Bolts at the their own game. Credit Chris Drury for adding just the right pieces at the trade deadline to make this very good team a formidable contender; a contender that is two wins away from earning its first appearance in a Cup final since 2014. And this team is better than that team.

Is the series over? Hardly. Let's not forget that the Rangers found themselves in the same pickle against the Hurricanes and managed to even the series. The Lightning are certainly capable of doing the same. And we are talking about a two-time Stanley Cup champion here. Yes, the wear and tear may finally be catching up with this team, but there's a lot of pride in that locker room. Think about it: they came this close to tying a game they had no business being in. What do you think will happen when they're actually facing elimination?

But make no mistake about it: this Rangers team is legit. The haters can continue to hate and discount their postseason successes all they want. It won't matter. The truth is that they're here because they've played better than their opponents. Period. And if they continue to raise their level of play, they might just wind up stunning the hockey world.

The Rangers Send a Strong Message

That wasn't Louis Domingue between the pipes for the Tampa Bay Lightning last night; nor was it Antti Raanta. That was none other than Andrei Vasilevskiy, last year's Conn Smythe trophy winner, the goaltender universally acknowledged as the finest in the world, and the man who in the last series posted a .981 save percentage against the NHL's number one offense. Well, when the Rangers were done, they wound up scoring twice as many goals in one game as Vasilevskiy allowed in the last four.

To add insult to injury, his "understudy" two hundred feet away stole the show. Igor Shesterkin stopped 37 of 39 shots, or as it's better known around the organization, just another day at the office. The Rangers skated circles around the two-time Stanley Cup champs, who admittedly looked rusty from being off for nine days. They threw their weight around and took advantage of the passing lanes they seldom saw against the Carolina Hurricanes. Artemi Panarin must've felt like a prisoner out on parole with all the freedom he had to maneuver with the puck. His cross-ice pass set up Mika Zibanejad's power play goal that capped off the scoring for the Blueshirts.

It was nice having a laugher for once; it was even nicer having a lead in a series, something the Rangers have failed to do throughout these playoffs. For once, the haters couldn't dismiss what happened on the ice. There were no scrub goalies to take advantage of, no Jacob Trouba hits leading to key players being concussed, no missed penalties leading to game-tying goals. The Rangers played a full sixty minutes of hockey against a legitimate Cup contender and for the better part of the contest were the better team.

New York had six players with two points, eleven with at least one. The top three lines all contributed to the scoring with Filip Chytil leading the way with two goals in the second period; the latter coming off a brilliant cross-ice pass from Alexis Lafreniere that Vasilevskiy had no chance on. Once more, the kid line was the most consistent line on the ice for the Rangers.

Yes, I get it, it was only one game, and yes, that wasn't the Pittsburgh Penguins the Rangers were playing out there; it was the Tampa Bay Lightning, the team looking to become only the fourth team in NHL history to win at least three consecutive Stanley Cups. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Montreal Canadiens and New York Islanders are the other three. The Bolts will almost certainly step up their game Friday night. They will have no choice, because that wasn't the Florida Panthers they were playing out there either. The Puddy Tats, as I wrote ad nauseam, were a deeply flawed team that was destined to fail once the playoffs began. These Rangers are the exact polar opposite of that team: resilient, persistent and determined. They may go down, but not without one helluva fight.

And regarding whether or not that happens, two things are worth noting here. The first has to do with historical trends. According to Stat Boy Steven, since 2000, teams that took a full seven games to dispose of their lower round opponents were 7-0 against teams that swept theirs. Apparently, having all that time off does more harm than good. The second has to do more with the style of play the Lightning employ. Put succinctly, the Rangers enjoy playing that style of hockey. It suits them well. Forwards like Zibanejad and Panarin have more room to create on the rush. That may explain why they went 3-0 against Tampa during the regular season. If I were Jon Cooper, I'd be more worried about the latter than the former. I haven't seen the Rangers this pumped to play an opponent in years. Compared to the Hurricanes, the Lightning are a walk in the park.

Bottom line, this is going to be a long and exciting series; one in which the team that prevails will be the prohibitive favorite to capture the Cup. Buckle up.

NHL Playoff Preview (Third Round)

So now it's down to four. The conference finals are upon us, and for the first time in years, we will have two incredible series to watch. No "systems" designed to slow down the game or thwart the other team's advantage. All four of these teams rely on their elite-level talent to propel them to victory. Like the NBA does every spring, the NHL will have the opportunity to showcase to millions of casual hockey fans just how great this sport can be when the stars take charge.

I went three for four in the last round; with Carolina the only team that didn't cover. Like I wrote earlier, next time I'll trust my heart. And while I usually resist the urge to look ahead, spoiler alert, the prohibitive favorite to capture the Stanley Cup will likely come from the East.

Without further ado,

Eastern Conference:

New York vs. Tampa Bay: What a matchup. The youngest team in the playoffs against the two-time Stanley Cup champions. The good news is that the Rangers will have home ice in this series. The bad news is that the one huge advantage they've had in these playoffs - goaltending - will be nullified. As brilliant as Igor Shesterkin has been, Andrei Vasilevskiy is in another world. Consider he held the Florida Panthers - the NHL's number one offense - to a measly three goals in four games. His save percentage was an astounding .981 in that series.

Unlike the Hurricanes, the Lightning have an exceptional power play, even without Brayden Point. The Rangers are going to have to stay out of the penalty box or they will get lit up. Another piece of good news is that forwards like Artemi Panarin should finally have the space to create offense that the Canes took away. Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox will go toe to toe with Stephen Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman.

Both teams' GMs did exceptionally well adding valuable pieces at the trade deadline. Julien BriseBois has the inside track to be executive of the year. It's clear Chris Drury is attempting to copy the Lightning model. He brought in Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Reaves and Sammy Blais during the offseason to toughen up this roster and it has paid dividends.

The experts are all picking Tampa, and I totally get it. This Lightning team is the best the NHL has seen since those legendary New York Islanders teams of the 1980s. Sans Ondrej Palat, this core will be together for at least one more year. It is not out of the realm of possibility that they could win four cups in a row. 

And yet, even with all that, the Rangers still represent a serious threat to their reign. If they can jump out to an early series lead, they do have the depth to push the Bolts to the very edge. Sooner or later all those playoff games have got to take their toll. Rangers in seven.

Western Conference:

Colorado vs. Edmonton: I'm not much of a gambler but I'm gonna go out on a limb here and predict that betting the over will pay handsomely in this series. Forget about Auston Matthews, Conor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon are the two best players in the NHL, and if you enjoy watching elite hockey players put on a show, you will be in for a treat with these two. Think Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier. Yes, they're that good. The goaltenders will have their work cut out for them.

The Avalanche have the advantage by virtue of having home ice. Also Cale Makar will be the best defenseman in this series, not that there will be much defense on display. This could be turn into a track meet fast. Just look at what the Oilers did to Vezina trophy finalist Jacob Markstrom in the last round. I actually felt sorry for him.

The smart money's on Colorado, but my gut tells me the Oilers have something going for them. The way McDavid is lighting up the score sheet, there might be nothing that can stop him. And I wasn't exactly thrilled at the way the Avs blew that three goal lead against the St. Louis Blues at home. Oilers in six.

Tropical Depression

Note to self: Next time trust your heart.

The New York Rangers, who entered last night's contest against the Carolina Hurricanes in Raleigh 4-0 in elimination games, are now 5-0. Next stop, Tampa.

The most resilient team in the NHL not only defeated what on paper was their toughest opponent, they did it going away. The 6-2 rout represented their biggest margin of victory in a road game seven since they shut out the Washington Capitals 5-0 in 2013.

Playing with the lead proved to be the difference, that and a potent power play. With the exception of game one, the team that scored first in this series won each game. And just like they had done in games four and six, the Hurricanes took stupid, undisciplined penalties that proved costly. 

Adam Fox and Chris Kreider - who had been held to only one goal thru six games - scored with the man advantage; Igor Shesterkin continued to make everyone who voted for Auston Matthews for the Hart trophy look foolish by stopping all 16 shots that the Canes threw at him in the first period; and the Blueshirts took a 2-0 lead into the first intermission.

Ryan Strome padded the lead in the second period before Kreider - second of the night - and Filip Chytil broke it open in the third. Andrew Copp added an empty netter for good measure. You know the hockey gods are smiling on this team when Strome scores a goal.

The Rangers bent but didn't break. According to Clear Sight Analytics, while Carolina had more scoring chances in the game, most of them were mid and low quality. For once, it was the team from New York that had the better opportunities, and they cashed in.

But lest you think the outcome was in the bag, there were a couple of close calls that had they gone the other way might've made this "laugher" a barn burner. The first occurred in the first period seconds after Kreider's power play goal put the Rangers ahead 2-0. Teuvo Teravainen fired a one timer that Shesterkin barely got his shake blade on. The second occurred late in the second period with the Rangers still clinging to that 2-0 lead. Copp broke up a potential goal by Andrei Svechnikov, and seconds later Strome buried the puck short side.

But apart from those, admittedly, scary moments, the Rangers were very disciplined in their own end. They capitalized on their scoring chances, they blocked shots - 25 in all - and when they made the odd mistake or two, Shesterkin was there to make the save. You couldn't have choreographed this game any better if you tried. 

The stars came through last night: Mika Zibanaejad, Fox, Kreider, Jacob Trouba, who's devastating check on Seth Jarvis inadvertently led to the second power play goal when Jarvis couldn't make it back to the bench and the Canes were called for having too many men on the ice. Even Artemi Panarin had an assist.

I thought there was a chance they could pull out a squeaker late, but even I couldn't have foreseen this. Credit Gerard Gallant, who kept this team together after they were humiliated by the Pittsburgh Penguins twice in games three and four in the first round. If this guy doesn't win the Jack Adams award, there's no justice. And credit Chris Drury, whose trade deadline acquisitions have paid off big time in these playoffs.

The Rangers are in the Eastern Conference finals. Seriously, if you had this team half way to a Stanley Cup championship before the start of the season, you're a better person than me.

This crazy ride continues. Where it will end, no one knows.

Rangers Have the Opportunity of a Lifetime

The Rangers took care of business Saturday night. After their "tired" performance in game five, in which they managed a paltry 17 shots on goal, they limped out of Raleigh on life support. A loss at the Garden meant their season would be over. So they summoned what resiliency they had left and beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-2.

Don't be fooled by the score. The Blueshirts got two soft goals in the first period off Antti Raanta, who was lifted after Filip Chytil went top shelf on him early in the second. The Canes outshot the Rangers in every period and had the better scoring chances. If Igor Shesterkin had been playing for Rod Brind'Amour last night, this series would be over and we'd be talking about the 2022-23 season.

And now they hit the road, where they are 1-5, to play a team that is 7-0 at home, for the right to play the two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference finals. The Rangers are 4-0 in elimination games, so theoretically a win is possible. But in the three games they've played in Raleigh so far, this resilient team has managed exactly two goals, one off a turnover in game one and the other on a power play in game five. Sadly, the Rangers have given zero evidence that they are capable of mustering the kind of sixty-minute effort it would take to advance and every indication that when the final buzzer sounds Monday night, they and not the Canes will be the ones headed home.

So why am I cautiously optimistic about their chances? Two reasons and they both have to with who's in goal. The fact is Igor Shesterkin doesn't play for Rod Brind'Amour; he plays for Gerard Gallant, which means that any game he suits up for is a game he is capable of winning, er, stealing. Ask Mike Sullivan what he thinks about Shesterkin. The Pittsburgh Penguins threw the kitchen sink at him in the third period of game seven and couldn't beat him. Anybody else in that net and Artemi Panarin doesn't get to score that power play goal in overtime.

As for Antti Raanta, he's starting to show why he's been a backup goaltender his entire career. There was simply no excuse for that performance in the first period. He whiffed on a shot by Tyler Motte and was cleanly beaten five hole by Mika Zibanaejad. Igor would've stopped those shots; in fact, any half-way competent net minder would've stopped them. His body language after getting pulled by Brind'Amour was all you needed to know. I'm telling you he's teetering and if the Rangers are smart, they will make the most of the opportunity the hockey gods have bestowed upon them.

Despite getting thoroughly outplayed and outshot in game five, the Canes only had a one-goal lead with just over seven minutes to go in the third period, and if Adam Fox handles that loose puck at center ice instead of muffing it, who knows what might've happened? 

Now imagine if the Rangers manage to establish even a modest forecheck Monday night. Let's say they get a "soft" goal on Raanta early, the score is tied at two late in the third and Carolina gets called for a penalty. Now imagine a one-timer by Zibanejad with just under two minutes left.

You might be thinking that's quite an active imagination you have there, Peter. To be fair, it is far fetched. But here's the thing: with six minutes to go in the third period of game seven against the Pens, the Rangers were trailing by a goal and looked for all the world like they were done. Then all of a sudden, Andrew Copp wrestled a puck out of the corner and fed Zibanejad for the tying goal. You know the rest.

This entire season, the Rangers have confounded the so-called analytics experts. Their ability to stare death in the face and come away unscathed has paid huge dividends. Of course, it doesn't exactly hurt that they have the presumptive Vezina trophy winner playing for them. Consider that not once in these playoffs have they led in a series. They trailed the Pens 1-0 and 3-1 before coming back; they trailed the Canes 2-0 and 3-2 before coming back. They seem to relish being the underdog; it has served them well.

With all the talk about how the Rangers have had a difficult time playing a full sixty minutes, it's not like the Hurricanes have dominated this series. Games one and two could easily have gone either way; they got outplayed in game four and they were downright sloppy in game six. Yes, they're 7-0 at home in the postseason, but the problem with going to the well that many times is that sooner or later your bucket comes up dry.

Bottom line, yes the Rangers can win game seven, but to do so, they will have to play considerably better than they did in game five. They are going to have to manage the puck well, avoid turnovers at center ice, and get the puck in deep. Shesterkin will keep them in the game as long as he can, just like he has done throughout the playoffs, but the Rangers will have to meet him half way.

They have the talent, now they have to find the will.

So Much for a Storm Surge

Don't look now, but the Carolina Hurricanes, the team the so-called experts, myself included, thought was the team to beat in the Eastern conference, are tied with the New York Rangers, the team that the analytics community has been disparaging for much of this season.

Not only are these two teams tied with each other, but after last night's game - a 4-1 Rangers win - the momentum is most decidedly NOT with the team based in Raleigh. In fact, a strong argument can be made that were it not for a game-tying goal late in the third period of game one by Sebastian Aho, the Blueshirts would be on the verge of winning this series Thursday night instead of merely looking to take a 3-2 lead.

Consider the following: In four games, the Canes have managed to score a paltry five goals against Igor Shesterkin; they are 0 for 9 on the power play; and their top two defensemen - Tony DeAngelo and Jaccob Slavin, who racked up eight points a piece against the Boston Bruins in round one - have been held off the score sheet. DeAngelo, in particular, has had a miserable series and seems more intent on picking a fight with Ryan Reaves than helping his team win.

Meanwhile, the Rangers, apart from that third period goal in game one, a short-hander by Brendan Smith in game two and a few pushes by Carolina in games three and four, have been the better team so far in this series. They are out-hustling the Canes; they are getting scoring from all four forward lines; and with the power play now starting to click and Igor living up to his billing, a trip to the conference finals is looking less and less like a pipe dream and more and more like a real possibility.

Ironic, isn't it? Of the four remaining series, this is the only one that's been remotely competitive. The Tampa Bay Lightning disposed of the Florida Panthers - AKA, the Puddy Tats - in four straight; the Edmonton Oilers are currently leading the Calgary Flames 3-1; and barring divine intervention, the Colorado Avalanche will put the St. Louis Blues out of their misery tonight. 

I'm usually not one to eat crow, but even I couldn't have expected this. After all, it's not like the Rangers played like gang busters against the Pittsburgh Penguins. They twice had to overcome two-goal deficits while facing elimination, not once, not twice, but three times. Talk about sudden death. Only an overtime power play goal by Artemi Panarin in game seven prevented what would've been a disappointing first round exit. Even the most die-hard fan would have to admit that beating the Hurricanes was an uphill battle.

Look, they still have to win at least one game in Carolina, and that won't be an easy task. The Hurricanes are 6-0 at home; I fully expect them to step up their game Thursday night. But the Rangers team that takes the ice for game five will have a lot more confidence going for it than the one that showed up in games one and two. They know they can beat this team and, what's more, the Hurricanes know it too. Knowledge is a beautiful thing, if you do something with it.

The Rangers seem to relish the role of underdog in these playoffs; it has served them well. They are two wins away from getting a crack at the two-time Stanley Cup champs. Just imagine what a series between Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy would look like.

I get goosebumps just thinking about it.