Showing posts with label trade deadline. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trade deadline. Show all posts

Saturday, August 2, 2025

Stearns Goes All In


Last season, David Stearns had a fairly conservative trade deadline. "No blockbuster moves," was how I described it. And who could blame him? While the Mets were tied for the last Wild Card spot, by no means were they a shoo-in for the playoffs. A year after they sold off Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander to restock their farm system, the last thing Steans wanted was to undo all that progress the organization had made for a team that might not be ready to win. So he hedged his bets, opting instead to add a few complimentary pieces.

There was no hedging this time around. The Mets were in first-place going into the trade deadline; their owner, Steve Cohen, coughed up $765 million during the offseason to sign Juan Soto to a 15 year deal; the expectations could not be higher for this team. Stearns knew there were holes that had to be filled, and fill them he did.

The Bullpen was the number one concern. In April, the Mets overall team ERA was 2.68; in May, it was 3.08; from June 1 to June 12, it was 2.60; but from June 13 to July 31, it ballooned to a season-high 4.94. The major reason for this increase was the bullpen. Put succinctly, it's been overworked. With the exception of Edwin Diaz and Reed Garrett (most nights), every reliever showed definite signs of fatigue. It had gotten so bad that every time Carlos Mendoza went to his pen he was playing Russian Roulette, only with six bullets instead of one. Clearly, the situation was untenable. Failure to act would've been tantamount to executive malpractice on Stearns' part.

So he went out and got one very good, and two exceptional arms. Gregory Soto was the first to arrive. A southpaw, Soto's specialty is dominating left-handed hitters, holding them to a .547 OPS. Righties, however, have an OPS of .726 against him, so Mendoza will have to be careful in how he utilizes him. 

Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley are both right-handers and were acquired within hours of each other. Rogers boasts a 1.80 ERA, while Helsley had 21 saves for the St. Louis Cardinals this season. Both pitchers should make ideal set-up men for Edwin Diaz, while Soto will primarily be used in the 6th or 7th innings.

Centerfield was the next concern. Let's face it: if there's a more automatic out in baseball than Tyrone Taylor, I haven't seen him. Initial reports had the Mets acquiring Luis Robert Jr from the Chicago White Sox, but when Chicago's asking price was too high, Stearns shifted gears and landed Cedric Mullins from the Baltimore Orioles. To be honest, Mullins is the better player. Going into last night's game against the Giants, Mullins slash line was 15 / 49 / .229 / .738, while Robert Jr's was 11 / 44 / .213 / .653. 

In Mullins, the Mets have an exceptional outfielder known for his glove and ability to hit the long ball. He will be a vast improvement over Taylor and allow Mendoza to keep Jeff McNeil at Second Base where he belongs. As for the lineup, since Stearns didn't have to part with any players on the roster, it just got longer. The only casualty was Luisangel Acuña, who was sent down to Syracuse to make room for Mullins. His defense and ability to steal bases will be sorely missed. 

The good news is that Stearns was able to add four very valuable pieces at the deadline without sacrificing any top prospects in the organization.  The only bad news was that he wasn't able to land a starter. While not nearly as troublesome as the bullpen, the starting rotation is, nonetheless, becoming a concern for Mendoza. David Peterson is the only starter who's been able to consistently pitch into the 7th inning. Clay Holmes, the converted closer the Mets stole from the Yankees during the offseason, hasn't gotten through the 6th inning since June 7, and lately has struggled to get through five. In his last outing, Frankie Montas was staked to a 5-1 lead going into the 5th inning and couldn't hold it. His ERA is as high as an attendee at a Grateful Dead concert.

It would've been nice to add someone like a Dylan Cease or Joe Ryan or Sandy Alcantra or Merrill Kelly to that rotation, but I suspect the price tag for those starters was more than Stearns was willing to pay. Indeed, it probably would've been more than what he paid for all three relievers. The logical choice was to fortify the bullpen and hope that Mendoza can somehow manage to get five innings out of his starters.

Last year, I gave Stearns a B+. This year, I'm giving him an A. With the exception of A.J. Preller of the San Diego Padres, no executive had a better trade deadline than Stearns. He identified two critical needs on the roster and he addressed both of them. No, he didn't get everything he wanted; spoiler alert: no general manager ever does. But what he did get should be enough for the Mets to win the National League East, and perhaps advance to their first World Series in ten years.

Lofty goals, to be sure, but as I wrote above, the expectations for this team could not be higher.



Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Mets At the All-Star Break



Last year, the New York Mets went into the All-Star break with a record of 49-46, 12.5 games out of first place; this year at the break, their record stands at 55-42, a half game out of first. 

At first glance, you'd probably conclude that this Mets team is much better poised to win than last year's. But when you check under the hood, that conclusion seems a bit premature. I'll explain.

The 2024 Mets got off to a dreadful start. On June 2, they were 24-35, mired in fourth place in the National League East. CitiField looked more like a morgue than a major league ballpark. Slowly, but surely, the boys from Flushing clawed their way back into playoff contention. But it wasn't until late August that the Amazins really took off. They went 20-9 down the stretch to clinch a Wild Card spot.

This year, the Mets got off to a great start. On June 12, they were 45-24, five and a half games up on the Philadelphia Phillies. Since then, they've gone 10-18. Their bullpen, once the best in baseball, has struggled mightily. Apart from Edwin Diaz, there's not one reliever Carlos Mendoza can rely on to get a crucial out.

Reed Garrett, who had an ERA of 0.95 on June 10, has allowed nine earned runs in his last nine and a third innings. Though to be fair, eight of those earned runs came in two games; and in one of those games, he failed to record an out.

Ryne Stanek, who had an ERA of 1.04 in the month of May, has posted ERAs of 6.23 and 7.36 in June and July respectively. Mendoza, for some strange reason, elected to go to him in the 8th inning of a game in which the Mets were ahead 1-0 and David Peterson was in complete control; he then promptly surrendered a two-run home run.

Huascar Brazobán, like Garrett, got off to a very good start. In May, his ERA was 1.26. In June, it was 13.5, and in July it is currently 5.40.

Starting to notice a pattern? Hopefully David Stearns is. Because this bullpen isn't remotely good enough for a team with championship expectations. And let's get one thing straight: when you drop $765 million on a single player, the expectation is that at some point you're going to win a championship. While it's true that Steve Cohen may be an incurable optimist, he didn't get to be this successful by throwing away his money. 

But the bullpen isn't the only area of concern. Put succinctly, there are four bats in this lineup that, with a few rare exceptions, have been pretty close to automatic outs this season. Tyrone Taylor is a vacuum cleaner in center field; at home plate, he's utterly useless; Luis Torrens (.206) and Hayden Senger (.174) are outstanding defensive catchers who can barely hit AAA pitching; Mendoza has tried three different players at 3rd base and so far, none have hit well enough to win the position outright. As for the DH spot, the Mets would do better holding a telethon. Face it: as good as Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil have been, there's no way this team will win the World Series with that many holes in the batting order.

With the return of Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea, Mendoza will have a much better starting rotation in the second half. The only question is how deep can these starters go? So far, only Peterson has demonstrated he can go more than six innings. Clay Holmes is basically a five-inning pitcher, and Senga is injury prone. In other words, whichever starter the Mets send to the mound, the bullpen will likely be the difference between winning and losing.

With that in mind, Stearns would do well to focus his efforts on fortifying the pen. Middle relievers will cost less than a starter. As far as adding a bat, Harrison Bader could be had for a mid-level prospect. He's currently batting .254 with 11 home runs and 34 runs batted in for the Minnesota Twins. Last year, he hit .236 with 12 HRs and 51 RBIs for the Amazins. Assuming Francisco Alvarez gets recalled sometime this month, the hope is he can rediscover the swing he had two years ago when he smacked 25 homers. 

The good news is that even with all their flaws, the Mets are only a half game out of first. That's because the Phillies have their own flaws. It wouldn't take much tweaking by Stearns to put this team on the glide path. The issue isn't who's available but what the asking price will be. If the Mets can get a player or two with team control without having to give up a top prospect, they should absolutely do it. But if the asking price means gutting their farm system, I would pass.

On the whole, the Mets have had a good first half. They seem to have weathered the worst of that storm in mid to late June. And they are still the front-runners in the National League East. Can they win it all? That depends on what Stearns does over the next couple of weeks.



Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Mets Get a Wakeup Call



Going into their series against the Tampa Bay Rays at CitiField, the New York Mets were 16-4 in their last 20 games. They boasted the best team ERA and the second-best runs scored and against differential in Major League Baseball. With an overall record of 45-24, they were solidly in first place in the National League East, five and a half games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. It looked like they were ready to put the pedal to the metal.

And when they jumped out to a 5-1 lead over the Rays in game one, it certainly appeared as if they were doing that. The Mets scored two runs in the bottom of the 4th and three more in the bottom of the 5th to erase an early 1-0 Tampa Bay lead. Clay Holmes was in complete command, allowing one run and three hits through five. But Carlos Mendoza decided to pull him after just 79 pitches.

That's when the roof fell in on the Mets. The Rays lit up Paul Blackburn and Max Kranick like a Christmas tree in the top of the 6th, scoring six runs, two courtesy of a two-run homer from Danny Jansen, who entered the game with a .194 batting average. The Mets lost the game 7-5.

It didn't get any better for the Amazins the next two games. They lost 8-4 and 9-0 respectively; the latter coming on Father's Day with 42,804 disappointed fans in attendance. Imagine having that many people in your stadium and getting embarrassed like that. It was the first time this season that the Mets had been swept in a three-game series.

Perhaps this was just an anomaly; a couple of stinkers in an otherwise long schedule. After all, the Mets were due for a let down sooner or later. And it's not like the Rays are a bottom feeder; in fact, they're a pretty good team. Over their last twenty games, they were averaging five and a half runs per game. To put that in perspective, the Mets are averaging 4.55 runs per game for the season.

Or perhaps it was a wakeup call. For much of 2025, the Mets have relied on their pitching to carry them. And until this series, that formula was working. But the Rays exposed a flaw in that formula. They beat up on a bullpen that is starting to show signs of wear and tear not even half-way through the season. They also did a number on Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning, both of whom appear to be reverting to form.

After an impressive April in which he posted a 1.73 earned run average, Megill's ERA in May and June ballooned to 5.96 and 5.52 respectively. Over his five years as a big-league pitcher - all with the Mets - Megill is 26-26 with a 4.46 ERA. This is who he is, folks.

Coming into this season, Canning had a career ERA of 4.78 with the Los Angeles Angels. Take away the start he had against the Dodgers in LA earlier this month, and Canning has allowed 16 earned runs over his last 15 innings pitched. We have a word for that: it's called atrocious.

With Kodai Senga sustaining a hamstring injury in his last start, and Sean Manaea still out with an oblique injury, the starting rotation is going to be under duress for the foreseeable future. And aside from Edwin Diaz, Reed Garrett and Huascar Brazobán, the bullpen has been a huge question mark of late. A pitching staff that had been rock solid for most of the season now looks very vulnerable.

And the concerns don't end with the pitching. While Juan Soto has finally awoken from his early-season slumber, there are gaping holes in this lineup. Francisco Alvarez continues to struggle offensively. In 32 games, he's hitting .241 with only two home runs and 10 RBIs. His platoon mate Luis Torrens isn't any better. His slash line is .231 / 1 / 13. Ronny Mauricio, who was brought up from Syracuse when Mark Vientos went down with a hamstring injury last month, looks lost at the plate. Aside from a few games here and there, there's been virtually no production from the DH spot. And while Tyron Taylor is a human vacuum cleaner in center field, he's practically an automatic out at the plate. Put succinctly, the bottom four of the batting order isn't pulling its weight. Overall, the Mets are hitting just .218 with runners in scoring position this season; third lowest in the majors.

Put it all together and it spells trouble for a Mets team that had designs on going all the way this season. David Stearns has done an incredible job assembling this roster, but it's clear there's more work that needs to be done. The GM needs to add at least one more bat to this lineup and a couple of arms to this beleaguered bullpen. Mendoza can't keep playing Russian Roulette with his relievers hoping they don't implode the way Blackburn and Kranick did against the Rays.

Over the next ten days, the Amazins play the Atlanta Braves seven times and the Phillies thrice. After a rough stretch, Philly has won five in a row. As for Atlanta, while their record is a disappointing 31-39, they always play the Mets tough. The Flushing Faithful will never forget how the Braves came from seven games behind in August to win the division in 2022. Anybody who thinks this is a walk in the park doesn't know what they're talking about. If the Mets go 6-4, they'll be lucky.

The trading deadline is July 31. Plenty of time for Stearns to work his magic. 

Saturday, March 8, 2025

Drury Retools on the Fly



To paraphrase that classic line from the Mel Brooks movie Blazing Saddles: "Memo? We don't need no stinkin' memo!"

Regardless of how you feel about Chris Drury, he's never been one to pussyfoot around when it comes to making changes to the roster. Coming off a season in which the New York Rangers won the Presidents' trophy for the first time in nine years, Drury took a long, hard look at his team and concluded it wasn't good enough to win the Stanley Cup. So he went to work.

Barclay Goodrow was waived in June; Jacob Trouba was traded to the Anaheim Ducks in December for Urho Vaakanainen and a 2025 fourth-round pick; Kaapo Kakko was traded to the Seattle Kraken - also in December - for Will Borgen and a '25 third and sixth-round pick; Arthur Kaliyev was picked up off waivers from the L.A. Kings in early January; Filip Chytil was traded to the Vancouver Canucks, along with Victor Mancini and a conditional first-round pick, at the end of January for J.T. Miller; Ryan Lindgren and Jimmy Vesey were traded to the Colorado Avalanche in March for Calvin de Haan, Juuso Parssinen and a '25 second and fourth-round pick; Reilly Smith, who was acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins over the summer, was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights the day before the trade deadline for Brendan Brisson and a '25 third-round pick from the San Jose Sharks; and, then Drury sent that third-rounder to Vancouver yesterday for Carson Soucy.

In just nine months, Drury has turned over almost a third of his roster. Think about it: Jeff Gorton needed two years to "rebuild" the Rangers; his successor appears to have "retooled" it in less than half that time. More importantly, by resisting the urge to give up draft capital going after high-priced rentals at the deadline, he has put himself in position to add the pieces he needs over the summer to get this team back into contention for the 2025-26 season. And unlike that 2017-18 team, this team still has a chance to make the playoffs, even with the last two disappointing OT losses. 

Really, if you think Drury sucks as a GM, all I can say is you either haven't been paying attention or you don't know much about hockey. The fact is this is a tougher, grittier team than the one that got eliminated by the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference finals last year. If anything, Drury should get credit for smelling the caffeine and cutting his losses. I guarantee you the same people who are calling for his head now will erect a statue to him if this team goes on to win a Cup in the near future.

The more I think about it, the more this Rangers team reminds me of the 1992-93 team. If you recall, that team also struggled after winning the Presidents' trophy the year before. Neil Smith acquired Kevin Lowe and Esa Tikkanen during the season, and even though the Blueshirts missed the playoffs, they went on to win the Cup in 1994.

Now I'm not predicting history will repeat itself here; after all, that Rangers team had Mark Messier. And as good as J.T. Miller is, no one who isn't high on crack would ever confuse him for The Captain. But there is a quality Miller possesses that this core has sadly lacked the last few seasons that is already beginning to rub off on his teammates. If Drury can add a few more players like him over the summer, who knows what could happen. If I had to grade his moves, I'd give him an A minus.

Which leads me to my first NHL post trade deadline rankings in two years. I'll just do the top five teams in each conference. 

Eastern Conference:

Florida Panthers: They were already the front runners going into the deadline. With the addition of Seth Jones and Brad Marchant, they are the prohibitive favorites to come out of the conference. 

Tampa Bay Lightning: Julien BriseBois reacquired Yanni Gourde and landed Oliver Bjorkstrand to beef up his bottom six. The goaltending speaks for itself.

Washington Capitals: What a turnaround for a team that barely squeaked into the playoffs last season. They're big and explosive, and they're well coached.

Toronto Maple Leafs: They added some beef on the blue line, but as always, it'll come down to what the fab four do.

Carolina Hurricanes: They traded a point per game player for a player who scored 6 points in 13 games. Then when that player said he wouldn't re-up with them, they traded him for a player who's scored 29 points in 59 games. BTW, they still don't have a 2C or an elite goalie, but then you already knew that.

Western Conference:

Vegas Golden Knights: They reacquired Reilly Smith, but that's about it. Truth is, they didn't need to do much to this roster. They're already loaded.

Dallas Stars: They stole Mikko Rantanen from the Carolina Hurricanes for two first rounders and a bottom six forward. I see a Dallas / Vegas conference final. 

Colorado Avalanche: The additions of Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle give them badly needed depth at center. Were it not for the Stars and Knights, they'd be the favorites in this conference. 

Winnipeg Jets: They might very well win the Presidents' trophy, and Connor Hellebuyck the Vezina. But I'll believe they're legit when I actually see them win in the playoffs.

Edmonton Oilers: Jake Walman will help them on the blue line, and Trent Frederic will give them some badly needed muscle up front. But Stan Bowman would've done better getting a goalie. 

And my pick for the Stanley Cup finals:

Panthers over Golden Knights 4-3



Thursday, February 20, 2025

Rangers At the Break



Heading into the break, the New York Rangers record stands at 27-24-4. Their 58 points puts them just three behind the Detroit Red Wings for the final Wild Card spot. After a horrific December in which they went 3-10-0, the Rangers have gone 11-5-3 in 2025. The power play was 26.8 percent (7th best), while the penalty kill was 75.6 percent (tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Anaheim Dicks for 16th best). The team's save percentage was .897 (5th best).

Now before I get into what the Rangers need to do going forward, I wanted to take a moment or two to give a shout out to the NHL and the NHLPA. Regardless of what happens tonight in Boston, the Four Nations Face-Off Tournament has been an unqualified success. Not since 1996 have fans been treated to this kind of competitiveness within the sport in what basically amounts to an exhibition series. Kudos all around.

The only blemish has been Charlie McAvoy. The Boston Bruin and Team USA defenseman sustained an injury on a cross check in the game against Finland, which was apparently misdiagnosed by Team USA physicians. He subsequently developed an infection and was hospitalized in Boston. His presence will be sorely missed tonight against Team Canada.

Apart from that, though, if I were Gary Bettman and Marty Walsh, I would do everything in my power to make sure something like this becomes an annual event. You don't necessarily need a round robin like we saw in this tournament; but perhaps a best 2 out of 3 featuring a team from North America vs. a team from Europe would suffice.

Imagine what the lineups would look like:

Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Sam Reinhart, Branden Pointe, Mitch Marner, Cale Makar, Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, both Tkachuk brothers, Jake Guentzel, Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy and Connor Hellebuyck going up against Sebastian Aho, Aleksander Barkov, Mikko Rantanen, William Nylander, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, Artemi Panarin, Filip Forsberg, Jesper Bratt, Mikael Granlund, Kirill Kaprizov, Andrei Svechnikov, Rasmus Dahlin and Andrei Vasilevskiy. I'll gladly take that any day over what the NHL laughingly calls an All-Star game.

Now back to the Rangers.

If this team is going to make the playoffs, they need to get serious. No more blown leads like they had against the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche and Montreal Canadiens, all of which became OT losses. No more sleepwalking against a Pittsburgh Penguins team that was missing Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. And no more reckless cross-ice passes in the offensive zone with 30 seconds left in the third period of a tie game that directly led to a regulation loss to the Avs. All told, the Blueshirts have given up six points over the last six weeks; six points they can ill afford to give up. If they had just three of those points back, they'd be tied with the Red Wings right now.

Starting Saturday, the Rangers need to go on a win streak. They play the Sabres in Buffalo, the Penguins in Pittsburgh and the Islanders at UBS Arena. Anything less than 3-0 against those teams is inexcusable. Indeed, between now and the end of the regular season, they probably need to go 20-7. If that seems like a tall order, it is. But that's what happens when you dig a hole as deep as the Blueshirts have.

In order to accomplish this herculean feat, the big boys are going to have to come through. Assuming Chris Drury doesn't clean house at the trade deadline - unlikely - it's time for Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider to pull their respective heads out their asses and wake the fuck up. Since the arrival of J.T. Miller, Zibanejad has 2 goals and 6 assists over his last 5 games. He needs to keep that pace up if this team has any chance of making the postseason. Likewise for Kreider, whose shorthanded goal against the Bruins proved to be the game winner.

Adam Fox also needs to step it up. It is unacceptable for a player as gifted as he is to have only four goals on the season, and keep in mind two of those goals were empty netters. Though he was never a particularly fast skater, this season he's looked more like Carol Vadnais than the former Norris trophy winner we all know and love. Vincent Trocheck has filled the leadership void created after Jacob Trouba was sent packing admirably, but even he needs to step it up offensively.

But while the players must ultimately bear the lion's share of responsibility for this nightmare of a season, their head coach isn't without blame. The fact is Peter Laviolette has been way too patient with this group. Case in point: Alexis Lafreniere. Over the last few weeks, the young winger has looked lost; his failure to back check has led to several glaring goals against. It is high time Laviolette employed some tough love and sat him for a game or two, if not for his sake than to send a message loud and clear that lack of effort will not be tolerated. You don't have to be John Tortorella to get your team's attention. 

Bottom line: The Rangers have the horses to make the playoffs. Whether or not they do depends on how badly they want it.



Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Stearns Did the Right Thing At the Deadline



There were no blockbuster moves for the New York Mets at this year's trade deadline. No, "Oh that's the final piece we needed to put us over the top" pronouncements from the Twitterverse. The fact is there wasn't one player David Stearns acquired that would be described as a needle mover. 

And yet, when you look at the totality of what Stearns accomplished, it was actually quite impressive. Without surrendering a single top 20 prospect in his system, he acquired a proven bat in Jesse Winker, a serviceable starter in Paul Blackburn, and badly needed bullpen help in the form of Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Huascar Brazoban and Tyler Zuber. Stanek was a member of the 2022 World Series champion Houston Astros but has struggled of late; Maton and Brazoban had not allowed a run in their last 5 appearances prior to their trade; while Zuber has bounced around and is looking for a home.

Overall, I'd give Stearns a B+. Yes, I realize the Mets are in the middle of a playoff race. Currently, they're tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the third and final Wild Card spot. The Flushing Faithful have been very patient with Steve Cohen, but there's a limit to anyone's patience. For a franchise that hasn't won a title since 1986, you can hardly blame the fanbase for being frustrated at the seeming lack of urgency at the deadline.

But here's the thing that most people need to remember. With the exception of Tanner Scott, whom the San Diego Padres sacrificed a lot to get, I didn't see a single reliever on the market that would've magically transformed a bullpen that, sans Edwin Diaz and Jose Butto, has been very inconsistent, to say the least. Face it, every team in contention was looking for pitching. It was a sellers market. Stearns would've been a fool to allow himself to get extorted the way the Padres did.

If 2022 taught us anything, it's that even in baseball, there are no shortcuts. The Mets thought they could buy a World Series. It blew up in their face, and Cohen had to fork over a king's ransom to get Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer off his payroll. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. 

I said it before and I'll say it again, I like where this team is headed. They're exciting to watch. Winker will add depth to a lineup that has, with a few rare exceptions, been smacking the hell out of the ball. The additional arms hopefully will stabilizing a bullpen that could use all the help it can get.

But basically, to quote the Dramatics, whatcha see is whatcha get. The Mets were already a playoff contender before the trade deadline; and now they're a slightly better playoff contender. It comes down to the athletes in that dugout.

In the end, it always does.

Friday, July 26, 2024

OMG!



On June 2, the New York Mets record stood at 24-35. They were mired in fourth place in the National League East, with only the Miami Marlins keeping them from the cellar. The Flushing faithful were bracing themselves for yet another lost year. It was looking more and more like David Stearns was going to be a seller at the trade deadline.

Since then, they've gone 30-13 - including a home and home sweep of the Yankees - to improve their record to 54-48. And with last night's improbable win over the Atlanta Braves, they are only a half game out of second place in the East and are a half game up on the San Diego Padres for the second Wild Card. If you saw this coming six weeks ago, you're a better person than me. Frankly, I was already looking ahead to football season. 

So how did the Amazin's turn their season around? Ironically enough, with the one thing most people didn't think they had enough of going into 2024: their bats. In the months of June and July, the Mets lead the major leagues with 256 runs scored in 45 games for an average of 5.7 runs per game. The Minnesota Twins are second with 235 runs in 44 games for an average of 5.3 runs per game. How significant is that? Over the last twenty years, the closest the Mets have come to leading the league in scoring was 2006 and 2022 when they finished 7th with 834 runs and 5th with 772 runs respectively. And those teams are generally considered to be the best offensive teams since that '86 World Series team that finished 6th with 783 runs.

For a franchise known for its elite pitching, being such a prolific hitting team has been the story of the summer. And to think, they're doing it with Pete Alonso having a sub-par year. In 102 games, the polar bear has hit only 20 home runs. He's on track to hit 32. Not counting the pandemic year of 2020, Alonso has averaged 44 home runs per season. Pete is an unrestricted free agent after this year, so it would behoove him to kick it in gear if he expects Steve Cohen to give him the contract his agent Scott Boras is looking for.

The secret sauce for the Mets success at the plate this year has been their depth. Put succinctly, this is the most imposing lineup they've had in years. In addition to Francisco Linder, who unlike Alonso, is having one of his best seasons with a .259 BA, 22 HRs and 62 RBIs, there's Brandon Nimmo - .236 BA, 16 HRs and 63 RBIs - young studs like Mark Vientos - .284 / 13 / 35 in just 57 games - and Francisco Alvarez - .273 / 4 / 24 in 50 games, and OMG singing sensation Jose Iglesias - .366 / 3 / 17 in 37 games. Off-season additions Harrison Bader - .263 / 8 / 36 - and J.D. Martinez - .258 / 10 / 40 - have contributed to the hit parade, as well.

What's impressive about this Mets team is that with the exception of Jeff McNeil, who is starting to come around after an early-season slump, every hitter in the starting lineup has an OPS over .700. That means if you're a pitcher, there are no easy outs. No, "I'll walk this guy to get to the next one," mindset. Unlike the Yankees, who with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, are about as top heavy as the SS Poseidon on New Year's Eve, the Mets spread the wealth around. Each game it seems as if there's a different hero. At the pace they're on, 90 plus wins is not out of the question.

But while their offense may be percolating, their pitching hasn't been anything to write home about. The Mets team ERA is 4.15, 20th overall in the majors. Closer Edwin Diaz, after a rough stretch, is finally starting to round into form. The loss of Drew Smith, who was supposed to be Diaz' set-up man, to season-ending surgery, has made an already thin bullpen that much thinner. The emergence of Jose Butto as a long-reliever has been a pleasant surprise, and the return of Kodai Sengai will bolster a starting rotation that has Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, Sean Manaea and David Peterson. But for this team to contend for the playoffs, Stearns will need to fortify his bullpen at the trade deadline. Adam Ottavino and Jake Diekman aren't the answers.

Do I like where this team is headed? In a word, yes. They're exciting to watch, and with the prospects they have lined up in the minors, the future looks very promising. A tweak here and there by the front office and the Mets may finally give their fans something to root for in October and November. 



Saturday, March 9, 2024

For Drury, Less is More



When it comes to trade deadlines, there are two types of teams: sellers and buyers. Sellers are teams that know their season is over and are looking to see what they can get for their assets. Buyers are teams that believe they have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup and are looking for players who can help them in their quest.

Suffice to say, the New York Rangers fall into the latter type. For the third straight season, President and General Manger Chris Drury has used the trade deadline to bolster his team's chances in the postseason. In 2022, Drury acquired Frank Vatrano, Justin Braun, Tyler Motte and Andrew Copp. All four players were instrumental in the Blueshirts advancing to the Eastern Conference finals where, unfortunately, they were eliminated by the Tampa Bay Lightning, who were looking for their third consecutive Cup. 

In 2023. Drury went out and landed Vladimir Tarasenko, Niko Mikkola, Motte (again) and Patrick Kane. But unlike the previous season, the imports Drury brought in were, save for maybe Motte and Mikkola, not complimentary pieces; they were stars in their own right who, far from helping an already good team become better, wound up upsetting the chemistry in the locker room. The power play, which had been a staple of the team for the last two seasons, looked disorganized, as head coach Gerard Gallant struggled to find just the right combination. The whole thing unravelled against the New Jersey Devils in the opening round of the playoffs.

By no means were the Rangers the only organization to fall victim to the naive belief that you can never have enough stars. The Boston Bruins apparently weren't satisfied with running away with the Presidents' Trophy, so they brought in the proverbial kitchen sink at the deadline. And just like the Rangers, they were dispatched early at the hands of a Florida Panthers team that needed a loss by the Pittsburgh Penguins just to qualify for the playoffs. How's that for a kick in the teeth?

I'll say this for Drury: he's not one to make the same mistake twice. This time around, he refused to be seduced by all the shiny objects out there. The biggest and shiniest object was Jake Guentzel, a winger who for the last eight seasons has played alongside one of the best centers of this generation: Sidney Crosby. With just over a day to go before the 3 P.M. March 8 deadline, the Penguins let it be known that they were shopping the all-star forward.

Supposedly, four teams were vying for his services; the Vancouver Canucks, the Vegas Golden Knights, the Carolina Hurricanes and the Rangers. As Thursday afternoon turned into Thursday evening, only two teams remained in the hunt: the Hurricanes and the Rangers. The Penguins were looking for a substantial return for Guentzel, one that Drury was not prepared to pay, so Guentzel went to Carolina.

Predictably, Rangers Twitter went apoplectic. How could Drury screw this up? Guentzel was practically ours. Never mind that the price Pittsburgh was looking to extract - a number one draft pick, Kaapo Kakko and two top-tier prospects - would've gutted the organization. Never mind that he's a rental that Drury might not be able to re-sign over the summer. All that mattered was the big splash.

Thankfully, Drury held his ground. Don't get me wrong: Guentzel would've looked nice in a Rangers uniform. His resume speaks for itself. But he's a left winger on a team that badly needed a right winger. There's no guarantee he'd be able to make the switch. Plus, he's played with Crosby his entire career. While Mika Zibanejad is hardly chopped liver, he's no Crosby. The whole thing had the makings of Kane 2.0.

Undaunted, Drury turned his sights elsewhere. He had already acquired Alex Wennberg from the Seattle Kraken on Wednesday. Wennberg is a solid two-way player who will solidify a third line that has badly needed a center ever since Filip Chytil went down with a season-ending third concussion in November. He then acquired defenseman Chad Ruhwedel from the Penguins to add depth to the D core. All that was left was to get his right winger.

As the clock ticked closer and closer to 3, it was beginning to look like Drury was going to strike out. The Anaheim Ducks were looking for a first rounder for Vatrano, who is having a career year. The St. Louis Blues were looking for two number ones and a prospect for Pavel Buchnevich. Suffice to say, Drury balked at both "proposals."

Finally, with about 10 minutes to go, Drury found his man. Jack Roslovic of the Columbus Blue Jackets is listed as a center, but he was playing right wing on the Jackets top line with Boone Jenner and Johnny Gaudreau, and playing it quite well. Over his last 12 games, he has 13 points: 4 goals and 9 assists. His speed is a commodity this team can certainly use, and while Peter Laviolette will decide where he best fits in, all indications are that he will start on the Rangers top line.

Three holes to fill, three holes filled, and Drury didn't have to part with Kakko, or any of his number one picks or top prospects. Wennberg cost him a second-rounder and a fourth-rounder obtained from the Dallas Stars in the Nils Lundkvist deal; Ruhwedel a 2027 fourth rounder; and Roslovic a '26 conditional fourth that becomes a third if the Rangers make it to the conference finals. And as if that wasn't enough, Drury got both Wennberg and Roslovic with 50 percent salary retention. The man is methodical if nothing else.

No one can predict what impact these players will have on their new team. But given that the Rangers have been the lead dog in the Metropolitan Division pretty much the entire season, the expectation is that they can only help solidify their position. The second place Hurricanes also improved themselves and are only two points behind depending on what the Blueshirts do tonight against the Blues. The likelihood is that one of these two teams will meet either the Bruins or the Panthers in the ECF for the right to go to the Cup finals.

Did Drury nail this deadline? We'll know soon enough. But at least he didn't blow it like he did last year. And that's progress.


Saturday, February 17, 2024

Wheeler's Injury May Force Drury's Hand


Even before Blake Wheeler went down with what is likely a season-ending injury to his right leg in the first period of Thursday night's 7-4 win over the Montreal Canadiens, Chris Drury was contemplating what moves he was going to make at the trade deadline to shore up a roster that, despite a dismal January, is still in first place in the Metropolitan division and has now won six in a row.

With 9 goals and 12 assists on the season, it's not like Wheeler was tearing it up. Head coach Peter Laviolette tried shuffling him between the first and third lines in an attempt to unlock some of the skill the Rangers thought they were getting when they signed him over the summer. He finally settled on the first line when it became obvious that the third line of Kaapo Kakko, Jonny Brodzinski and Will Cuylle was too good to tinker with. Unlike his predecessor, Gerard Gallant, Laviolette is not one to fix what isn't broken.

But now that Wheeler is lost for the season, it is imperative that Drury find a replacement. And the sooner the better. Jimmy Vesey is a capable stopgap, but he is far more valuable to this team in the bottom six than in the top six. And with the Rangers apparently determined to keep Brennan Othmann in Hartford, Wheeler's replacement will have to come from outside the organization. Then there's the matter of finding a center for the fourth line. With the trade deadline literally three weeks away, Drury will be burning the midnight oil.

Of course, there's just a couple of "small" problems that could potentially gum up the works. The first should be obvious: Drury won't be the only buyer looking for help; the second is that thanks to an unusually competitive 2023-24 regular season, the number of sellers might be relatively small compared with past years. For instance, I'm sure Jordan Eberle and Yanni Gourde would make fine additions to the Rangers lineup. But with the Seattle Kraken only four points out of a playoff spot, GM Ron Francis might be reluctant to part with them, unless of course Drury is willing to pay a king's ransom.

And that isn't likely to happen, for two reasons: 1. Drury isn't one to overpay; and 2. According to Darren Dregor, James Dolan has apparently directed Drury not to trade the club's number one pick. Seems the NHL Draft is being held at The Sphere in Las Vegas this year - which Dolan just happens to own - and he wants to see his GM make that slow walk up to the podium in the first round. And you thought he was done meddling with this franchise when he fired John Davidson and Jeff Gorton three years ago? Silly you.

So, to recap: first round pick off the table, seller's market, multiple buyers. Unless Drury can get Dolan to change his mind on the first rounder, he's going to need Iron Man to pull this one off. He may have no alternative but to narrow his search to just one need. And if I were a betting man, I'd say he opts to fill the right wing spot and rough it with Barclay Goodrow as his center.

I keep coming back to Frank Vatrano. He's played with Mika Zibanaejad before, so the two are familiar with each other; he's signed through next season, which will give the first line something it hasn't had since Pavel Buchnevich was in a Rangers uniform: stability; and the cap hit - $3.6 million - is manageable. If Drury can get the Anaheim Ducks to retain some salary, it's a slam dunk.

Then there's always fan favorite Vladimir Tarasenko. Frankly, I wouldn't get my hopes up for a Broadway reunion. For starters, the price tag for the Ottawa Senator's services will be higher than Drury can pay, especially for a rental; for another, after what happened last April, I doubt Drury wants to go down that yellow brick road again.

If Drury chooses to go for a center, Tyler Johnson of the Chicago Blackhawks could fill the bill. He was a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning when they won back-to-back Stanley Cups and has played with Goodrow, though on separate lines. He's a UFA after the season, so he'd also be a rental.

One thing everyone seems to be in agreement on is that Drury will be active this trade deadline. How active will depend on the negotiating skills of his fellow GMs and how much of a dick his owner wants to be.


Friday, February 2, 2024

Exploring Drury's Trade Deadline Options



With the news that the New York Rangers are shutting down Filip Chytil for the remainder of the season after the center had a significant setback during practice, we pretty much know how much cap space Chris Drury will have to work with at the trade deadline. And that amount is $5.2 million.

Not exactly a king's ransom, but more than enough to acquire two or three players depending on how creative Drury wants to get. And if history is any indication, creativity is a trait the Rangers President and General Manager has never lacked. If there's a way to improve this lineup going into the playoffs, you can bet the ranch Drury will do it.

Of course, there are those who openly question whether this team is worth investing any more future assets. Let's be honest, January was a brutal month. It wasn't just that the Rangers lost nine out of 14 games, it was the manner in which they lost some of those games: 6-1 to the Carolina Hurricanes, 6-3 the Vancouver Canucks, and 5-1 and 5-2 back-to-back to the Vegas Golden Knights. It should be noted that every one of those teams are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. The argument can certainly be made that it would be prudent for Drury to stand pat and regroup next season.

There are two reasons why that is highly unlikely. First, can you envision any scenario in which Drury, after firing Gerard Gallant for last season's playoff collapse, and then hiring Peter Laviolette to turns things around, goes to James Dolan and admits this team isn't good enough to win? I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Dolan's office when that conversation takes place. Remember, this is an owner who fired John Davidson and Jeff Gorton three years ago because he didn't like the way the Rangers were playing. And that team had zero expectations of making the playoffs, let alone winning the Cup. What do you think he'd do given the promises that were undoubtedly made over the summer? Drury has no choice but to go all in. In for a penny, in for a pound, right?

Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, despite their recent play, the Rangers are still in first place in the Metropolitan division. And that's important because, unlike the Atlantic, where there are four teams capable of going to the finals, in the Metro, the only team that poses a serious threat to the Blueshirts is the Carolina Hurricanes. The Philadelphia Flyers are finally fizzling out, as we thought they would; the Islanders, despite their work ethic, always seem to come up short regardless of who's behind the bench; the Devils can't seem to get out of their own way; the Pittsburgh Penguins, even with a rejuvenated Sidney Crosby, keep finding new ways to lose; and the Washington Capitals have run out of smoke and mirrors. Whether they finish first or second, the Rangers stand a pretty good chance of advancing to the Eastern Conference finals. Drury knows this; that's why you can expect him to be active this deadline.

But who to go after, that's the question. The Rangers most glaring needs are right wing and center. Kaapo Kakko and Blake Wheeler are clearly not working out on the first line. And the third line has needed a center ever since Chytil went down in November. Nick Bonino was supposed to be a checking center, and Jonny Brodzinski was supposed to be in Hartford. At least that was the plan. With Bonino waived, Drury needs to find a 1RW, a 3C and a 4C, all for $5 million. A tall order to be sure, but doable.

Two high-profile targets are off the board. Elias Lindholm was dealt to the Vancouver Canucks by the Calgary Flames for a combination of draft picks and players, while Sean Monahan was acquired by the Winnipeg Jets from the Montreal Canadiens for a first rounder and a conditional pick. Between the two, Monahan was having the better season. And with a modest $1.985m cap hit, he would've been an ideal fit for a team like the Rangers looking to fill multiple holes.

Now that he's gone, Drury will have to look elsewhere. And that elsewhere should be the Anaheim Ducks where he can kill two birds with one stone. Both Adam Henrique and Frank Vatrano are having good years, and both can be had for the right price. Collectively, their cap hit comes out to $9.475m, meaning the Ducks will have to retain some salary for it to work for the Rangers. That will drive up the cost.

Vatrano had a successful, if short, stint in New York two years ago playing on the Zibanejad line. He's a shoot first, as questions later, forward on a team that is still way too pass happy. And he's signed through next season, meaning he wouldn't just be a rental. Henrique is a veteran center who can score and wins face-offs. He'd be the perfect 3C. To get both, Drury would have to part with multiple draft picks, one of which would be a first rounder, and at least one prospect. Don't kid yourself: if Lindholm and Monahan fetched what they did, no way in hell the Ducks are giving up two players like Vatrano and Henrique for peanuts. When it comes to trade deadlines, typically it's a sellers market.

If the asking price for Vatrano and Henrique proves too rich for Drury's blood, he can always split the baby. Maybe Vatrano for Kakko straight up and Boone Jenner from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Brodzinski and a conditional first rounder. Jenner scored 26 goals for the Jackets last season, and like Vatrano, he's signed beyond this season so he wouldn't be a rental. And with a cap hit of $3.75m, he doesn't break the bank.

Another possible target for Drury would be Yanni Gourde of the Seattle Kraken. The former Tampa Bay Lightning center was a fixture on those two Stanley Cup winning teams and played alongside Barclay Goodrow. It's well known that since he was promoted to President and GM of the Rangers, Drury has wanted to create a bonafide checking line. He coveted Phillip Danault, and was actively looking to sign the former Canadien before he chose the L.A. Kings. With the Kraken only two points out of the last Wild Card in the West, it's doubtful Ron Francis will want to trade Gourde.

Bottom line, there's plenty of items still left on the menu for Drury to consider.


Wednesday, March 1, 2023

Supply and Command




"That's why I think Drury isn't going to make a big splash at the trade deadline; not unless the price is just right. And with several more teams looking to improve their playoff fortunes, that scenario might be next to impossible to achieve. Translation, no Patrick Kane or Vladimir Tarasenko." 

- Peter Fegan, February 8, 2023.

Gee, that aged well, didn't it? Less than a month after yours truly predicted Chris Drury wouldn't make any big splashes at the trade deadline, he did the exact opposite - twice! I've already addressed the Tarasenko trade so no need to rehash that. The Kane trade, however, deserves a full-throated mea culpa.

But before I do that, let's get something straight. The idea that acquiring Kane was in the Rangers plan all along is patently absurd. If you seriously believe for a moment that last year's runner up to the Jim Gregory award would allow his head coach to go almost an entire game with only four defensemen available to him and would go through the most bizarre cap gymnastics we've seen in the salary cap era, all as part of some master plan to land arguably the greatest American ever to lace up a pair of skates in the NHL, you must think he's an idiot.

The fact is Kane was never in the Rangers plan. Once the Tarasenko deal was done, Drury moved on to address his fourth line. Reacquiring Tyler Motte from Ottawa with no salary retention was the first step in a two-step process; the second step was likely going to be either Nick Bjugstad or Sam Lafferty. Both players are natural centers and would've allowed Barclay Goodrow to return to the wing where he's better suited. By all accounts, both Drury and Gerard Gallant were fine with Jimmy Vesey on the first line. The fact that Drury made no provisions to take on a large contract is proof that nothing big was imminent.

There's only one reason why Patrick Kane is a Ranger today. He insisted on it. With just days left before the trade deadline, he ostensibly backed his G.M. into a corner. Broadway or bust. And Kyle Davidson, rather than lose him for nothing, wisely chose Broadway. Credit Drury for not ceding the leverage he had. He got Kane without surrendering a first round pick, a single player off his roster or any of his prized prospects. The return haul - a couple of low-level prospects, a conditional '23 second round pick, a '25 fourth rounder, and a '25 third rounder to Arizona for acting as a third-party broker - is less than what he gave up to acquire Andrew Copp a year ago. If that's your idea of an idiot, you need a new dictionary.

But even with all that going for him, Drury still could've said no. Having Bjugstad or Lafferty center the fourth line would've made the Rangers a much better checking team. And make no mistake about it: checking is what wins championships. The Boston Bruins - the runaway Presidents trophy winner - are notoriously good at checking their opponents. While the Rangers may have solidified their top six, the Bruins solidified their bottom six as well as their D by acquiring Garnet Hathaway and Dmitry Orlov. The Tampa Bay Lightning may have overpaid for Tanner Jeannot, but they now have arguably the toughest bottom six in the league, not to mention the best money goaltender in the game.

Let's not kid ourselves. Drury is taking a huge risk here. If these elite players don't jell, if they continue to cough up the puck in their own end, and if Igor Shesterkin doesn't regain his Vezina trophy form, this "all-star" team will be shown the door but fast come playoff time. The New Jersey Devils, by landing Timo Meier, are now considered the favorites to beat the Blueshirts in their first-round matchup.

Look, is this a better team than last year's. In a word, yes. Wouldn't you much rather have Patrick Kane, Vladimir Tarasenko, Vincent Trocheck, Jimmy Vesey and Niko Mikkola than Frank Vatrano, Andrew Copp, Ryan Strome, Ryan Reaves and Justin Braun? Of course you would. But being better on paper is one thing; being better on the ice is quite another. Kane was having an off year before he got hot over his last four games, and Tarasenko hasn't exactly lit up the scoring sheet since his arrival. There's a lot riding on both these former Stanley Cup champions.

This will be Gallant's toughest test as a coach. How well he handles it will go a long way towards determining whether Rangers fans celebrate in June or cry in April.

Monday, February 13, 2023

It's Time for Drury to Cut His Losses with Kravtsov


Look, I'm not going to make any excuses for the way in which Gerard Gallant has used Vitali Kravtsov this season - and for the record, he has a short leash with most young players - but it's time for Chris Drury to admit a painful truth: the Russian winger was a reach when then GM Jeff Gorton selected him with the 9th overall pick in the 2018 NHL draft, especially considering the Islanders took Oliver Wahlstrom two picks later.

Just take a look at his overall numbers. They don't exactly jump off the page. The year he was drafted, Kravtsov had 8 goals and 21 points in 50 games in the KHL. While at Hartford, he had 6 goals and 15 points in 39 games. The year he bolted for Russia after Drury tried to send him back down to Hartford, he had 6 goals and 13 points in 19 games in the KHL. In 48 games as a Ranger, Kravtsov has 5 goals and 10 points. Meanwhile, Wahlstrom has 32 goals and 61 points in 161 games for the Islanders. Of the 217 players selected in the 2018 draft, only six have fewer points than Kravtsov.

Maybe he's not Lias Andersson, but he's sure as shit ain't Alex Kovalev. And now that his camp has asked that he be traded, he's a declining asset that Drury needs to get something for while he still can. This is not a time for stubbornness. Drury may have gotten a first-round pick from the Dallas Stars for Nils Lundkvist, but that was different. Dallas had a need for an offensive-minded defenseman and the Rangers were loaded at right D. Everyone under the sun knew the Rangers were a little thin at right wing, hence the trade for Vladimir Tarasenko. If Kravtsov can't crack this lineup, that's a red flag. Drury doesn't have the leverage he thinks he has, trust me. The longer he waits, the worse the return will be. If he can get someone like Nick Bjugstad from Arizona to bolster his fourth line for Kravtsov and a sixth rounder, he should jump at it.

Look, it's clear that Kravtsov has no future with this team. Drury has to know that. Somewhere out there is a team willing to give him another shot, the same way the LA Kings did with Andersson. Drury may have inherited Gorton's mistake, but he's under no obligation to keep throwing good money after bad, not with the trade deadline three weeks away and the playoffs five weeks after that.

Beggars can't be choosey.


Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Horvat Deal Doesn't Impact Drury or the Rangers


To be honest, I was surprised that Lou Lamoriello pulled the trigger on the Bo Horvat deal. Frankly, I didn't think he had it in him. From everything we know about the man, he's strictly a role player type GM. Just take a gander at the Devils teams he put together in the '90s. He has a history of avoiding big names with equally big contracts. And make no mistake about it: it will take a lot of money to re-sign Horvat. Think at least $9.5 million x 8 years. If Mathew Barzal's AAV is $9.15 million x 8 years, you can bet the ranch the starting price for Horvat will be north of that. And that's assuming Lamoriello locks him up before the summer, which if he doesn't makes this "rental" a bust.

But while Horvat instantly becomes the Isles best player, his presence alone doesn't automatically catapult them into the postseason. That's because apart from Anders Lee there isn't a single winger on this roster that puts the fear of God into an opposing team. So unless Lou has another trade up his sleeve, I would hold off reserving those playoff tickets, if I were you. That might explain why Lamoriello protected the first round pick he sent to Vancouver. In the event they don't make into the tournament, he doesn't want to blow his chance at drafting Connor Bedard. Lou may be stubborn but he's not stupid.

So how does the Horvat deal impact Chris Drury's potential moves at the trade deadline? In a word, it doesn't. That's because Horvat is a center and the Rangers are set at that position. We can debate how effective Vincent Trocheck's offense has been since his arrival on Broadway last summer, but he is an improvement over Ryan Strome. If you can't see that, then maybe you should stop reading this blog. And after four years of promissory notes, Filip Chytil appears to finally be delivering on his potential. The third-line center has been one of the better forwards on this team the last few weeks, especially since Gerard Gallant reunited the Kid line. Drury's only problem will be re-signing him during the offseason.

As I wrote in my last piece, the Rangers number one need will be adding a scoring winger. And if they can find one cheap enough, maybe a shutdown center, as well. The problem for Drury won't be what his fellow GMs do, but available cap space. Even with Sammy Blais' contract off the books - and I assume Drury is actively working to make that a reality - the Rangers will only have about $7.5 million in deadline cap space to work with. That doesn't come come close to what they had last season when Drury was able to add four valuable pieces to help the Rangers on their playoff run.

Add to that the fact that, unlike last season when we knew who the top eight teams were in the Eastern conference, this season, there are eleven teams vying for eight playoff spots. In the Western conference, that number is ten. Meaning Drury will have a lot more chefs in the kitchen to contend with, all of them looking to make a soufflé from scratch. For an organization that values its youth and doesn't want to repeat the mistakes of the past, Drury will have to thread the needle here.

So, yes, the Horvat deal helps the Islanders, but it doesn't impact the Rangers in the slightest. Drury's job isn't any harder now than it was a day or two ago. This is still a playoff team that could use some filling out. How much will depend on what the seller is asking for and what the buyer is willing to pay.



Thursday, January 26, 2023

Rangers Still Have Some Nagging Concerns



Let's start with the good news. Since Jacob Trouba threw his helmet at the boards in a game against the Chicago Blackhawks at the Garden back on December 3 - a 5-2 loss which dropped their record to 11-10-5 - the Rangers have gone 15-4-3. During that stretch, they put together a seven-game win streak and managed to beat some pretty good teams like the Vegas Golden Knights, Toronto Maple Leafs, New Jersey Devils, Carolina Hurricanes. Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars. Even in three of the losses - 3-2 to the Pittsburgh Penguins in regulation, 2-1 to the Tampa Bay Lightning in a shootout and 3-2 to the Toronto Maple Leafs last night in overtime - the Rangers were the better team for much of the game.

In fact, the only duds I was able to find were a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Washington Capitals coming off the Christmas break and a 2-1 loss against the lowly Montreal Canadiens eleven days ago. Both games were at the Garden. I was tempted to include the 3-1 loss to the Boston Bruins last week, but chose not to. The fact is the Bruins are so hot right now, even if the Rangers had played a perfect game, I doubt they would've beaten them. Boston is on track to finish the season with 139 points. To put that in perspective, the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens, generally acknowledged to be the greatest hockey team ever assembled, had 132.

But here's the bad news. With all that the Rangers have accomplished over the last few weeks, there are still some nagging concerns that need to be addressed if they have any hope of winning the Stanley Cup.

The Power Play continues to struggle. Over the last twenty-two games, the Rangers have converted 14 of 61 power play chances for a 22.9 percent efficiency. On the surface, that doesn't sound too shabby. However, six of those power play goals were scored against the Florida Panthers, Columbus Blue Jackets, St Louis Blues and Blackhawks; teams that play defense about as well as Marv Throneberry used to play first base for the New York Mets; one goal against the Hurricanes was actually a pass that the goalie fanned on; and two more were scored while the Rangers were on a 5 on 3 man advantage. In the five games where the Rangers lost by a goal either in regulation, overtime or the shootout, they went a collective 0 for 12 on the power play, including last night's brutal 3-2 OT loss in Toronto, in which Chris Kreider shanked a tip in of a Mika Zibanejad goal-mouth pass with the Blueshirts ahead 2-1 in the third period. Just one power play goal in each of those games would've likely changed the outcome. Which brings us to the next nagging concern.

Lack of a killer instinct. There's just no way around it. This team, for all its talent, has been unable to put away its opponents. Last season, the Rangers were 48-5-4 when tied or ahead going into the third period. So far this season, the Rangers are 22-3-8 when tied or ahead going into the third. The good news is that they managed to salvage a point in each of those eight OT/SO losses; the bad news is they surrendered eight points that were theirs for the taking. And that's eight points too many for a team that's currently in third place in the Metropolitan division and is trailing the Devils by six points. Think about this. If the Rangers had scored just one additional goal in six of those eight non-regulation losses, they'd be in second place right now, only two points behind the first place Hurricanes. If they had scored an extra goal in all eight games, they'd be in first. That, right there, is the difference between having home ice in the first two rounds of the playoffs vs. playing a game seven on the road in all four.

Now you know why Chris Drury didn't look too happy in the above picture. He watched his team - a very talented team - outplay the Maple Leafs for two and half periods, only to blow a one-goal lead late in the third and lose the game in overtime. He's seen this movie too many times this season and it never ends well. He was tasked by James Dolan to turn this franchise around and make it into a legitimate contender. In just his first full season as GM and President, the Rangers made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals. They were two wins away from their first Cup final appearance since 2014 and six wins away from their first Stanley Cup championship since 1994.

He knows the stakes. He willingly signed up for them. Failure is not an option. This team, with all its warts, must win at least one round in the playoffs; two would be preferable. The fact is, though, if the regular season were to end today, the Rangers would open up against the Devils and likely lose in six or seven games.

That's why these next few weeks are so critical. The trade deadline is March 3. Drury has to find at least one scoring winger and a shutdown center. And he has to be able to acquire both without doing what his predecessor did: mortgaging the future. Assuming he can unload Sammy Blais, either through waivers or by trading him, he'll have over $7 million in deadline cap space. That should be sufficient to get the job done. The problem is he won't be the only GM looking to improve his team's playoff prospects. Across the Hudson, his counterpart Tom Fitzgerald will be working the phones for the Devils. I have no doubt Dolan has made it abundantly clear to Drury that losing to New Jersey is a non-starter. Twice before this organization has been eclipsed by a cross-town rival: the Islanders in the '80s and the Devils in the '90s and '00s. The third time, I can assure you, will not be the charm.

Last season, after 48 games, the Rangers were 31-13-4 for 66 points. This season, after 48 games, they're 26-14-8 for 60 points. Bottom line? This team can still win the Cup. Or it can go out in the first round.


Tuesday, March 22, 2022

Drury Nails His First Trade Deadline



Stephane Matteau and Brian Noonan this wasn't. But then this isn't 1994 and these New York Rangers aren't a couple of players away from winning a Stanley Cup.

But while they may not be Cup contenders just yet, they are a far cry from last year's disappointment. Indeed, this group of players has proven to be one of the most resilient teams in the NHL, and as GM, Chris Drury had a responsibility to do what he could to enhance their prospects in the postseason, while also not mortgaging its future.

The trick was how to thread the needle, especially in what proved to be a seller's market. With visions of J.T. Miller and Patrick Kane dancing in the heads of Rangers fans, and teams like the Florida Panthers overpaying for rentals like Ben Chiarot, Drury bided his time and didn't panic. And for his patience and prudence, he was justly rewarded; he managed to fill not one, but four holes without sacrificing a single high-valued prospect.

Below are the players Drury acquired, all of whom are pending UFAs, what they bring to the table, and what they cost him.

Frank Vatrano, a 28 year-old forward from the Panthers who can play on either wing, brings size, speed and a deceptive shot. He scored 24 goals a few seasons back, but was being under utilized this season. While considered a bottom six player, head coach Gerard Gallant will probably use him on the second line with Ryan Strome and Artemi Panarin until Kaapo Kakko returns sometime in April. Drury was able to pry him away for a fourth round pick in 2022. 

Justin Braun, a 35 year-old defenseman from the Philadelphia Flyers, who on a bad team was still a plus 3. His specialties include shot blocking, hits and clearing the slot. With a hundred playoff games under his belt - most of them for the San Jose Sharks - Gallant will use him on the third pairing with Patrik Nemeth. Since he's a righty, that means Braden Schneider will likely sit, which is a pity. Drury gave up a third round pick in 2023 to get him.

Tyler Motte, a 27 year-old winger from the Vancouver Canucks, has 7 goals this season and is another bottom six player. Gallant will probably use him on the second penalty-kill unit with Barclay Goodrow. With a healthy Kevin Rooney at center and Ryan Reaves at right wing, the Rangers will finally have a fully functional and effective fourth line going into the playoffs. A fourth round pick from 2023 was all it took to land Motte.

Andrew Copp, a 27 year-old center from the Winnipeg Jets. The pièce de résistance for Drury, Copp is a Swiss Army knife who can play center or either wing and has 13 goals and 35 points this season. With the Jets he played with Mark Scheifele, so it's not inconceivable that if Ryan Strome bolts over the summer, Copp could step in and center Panarin and Kakko next season. For now, though, Gallant will probably have him center the third line where his face-off prowess - 54 percent - will come in handy. To get Copp, Drury had to give up Morgan Barron, a fifth round pick in 2023 and two conditional second round picks, one of which becomes a first rounder if the Rangers make it to the Eastern Conference finals.

Considering the pressure Drury was under at the start of the season to get this team into the playoffs, I'd say he got quite a haul. Indeed, the only bone I have to pick here is potentially losing a first round pick for a player who may not even be with the team next year. If Drury can't re-sign Strome, he's going to need that pick to include in a package to secure his replacement. Then again, if the Rangers make it all the way to the conference finals, maybe it was worth it.

Not one of these players are what you would call elite. With Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox, the Rangers have their fair share of elite players; what they don't have are enough depth players. The fact is the third and fourth lines have been embarrassments all season long. Face it, on any other playoff-caliber team Julien Gauthier and Greg McKegg would be in the AHL, and Dryden Hunt would be a healthy scratch. That all three were getting substantial minutes was simply not tenable anymore, and credit Drury for realizing that.

While the prospect of seeing J.T. Miller and Patrick Kane in a Rangers uniform was enticing, acquiring both would've meant gutting the organization's pipeline of talent and draft capital. And given that both players would be UFAs after the '23 season, you'd ostensibly be admitting to your fan base that the window for winning a Stanley Cup is this year and next.

No general manager in his right mind would ever be that reckless. Well, almost no general manager. In the "glory days" when Glen Sather was running the show, he was famous for signing high-priced free agents that turned out to be busts. Remember Wade Redden? Thankfully, Drury takes more after his predecessor Jeff Gorton than Sather.

Bottom line, Drury addressed every need the Rangers had going into the trade deadline. As a result, this team is much deeper and tougher to play against than it was a week ago. When Kakko and Rooney return, they will have one of the most balanced lineups in the NHL, similar to the kind of lineup Gallant had when he was head coach of the Vegas Golden Knights.

Will they win the Cup? I still think the Carolina Hurricanes and the Tampa Bay Lightning are the teams to beat in the East. And the Pittsburgh Penguins definitely got better with the acquisition of Rickard Rakell. But this much I can tell you: I wouldn't want to be the team that has to beat Igor Shesterkin four times in a best of seven series.


Saturday, March 19, 2022

The Rich Get Richer



Some people just have a knack for making it look easy. People like Julien BriseBois, GM of the Tampa Bay Lightning, an organization that has won two consecutive Stanley Cups, and is looking to make it a three-peat.

And they might just pull it off. That's because while his counterparts in south Florida, Colorado, Calgary and New York were all busy acquiring rentals to bolster their post-season prospects ahead of Monday's trade deadline, BriseBois thought big picture and landed a player that can not only help his team win this season but for the next two seasons, as well.

On Friday afternoon, the Lightning sent forwards Boris Katchouk and Taylor Raddysh, along with two number ones to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for forward Brandon Hagel and a fourth rounder. Leaving aside the draft picks, the two players the Blackhawks received have a grand total of 7 goals; Hagel already has 21 with 22 games left in the regular season. Depending on where head coach Jon Cooper decides to play him, it's conceivable Hagel might end up with 30 goals.

This was a heist, pure and simple. Screw the number ones. Two years ago, the Bolts gave up two number ones to New Jersey and San Jose to land Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow respectively and it helped them win back-to-back Stanley Cups. Well this move is Coleman / Barclay on steroids. And best of all, BriseBois didn't add a single cent to the team's salary cap. That's because the two contracts that he sent to Chicago and the one he inherited from them cancel each other out.

That's called genius, people. In one move, BriseBois lands a player with term who can help him now and in the future that he can afford to retain without having to scramble over the summer to cut salary. By comparison, none of the other players who were traded over the last few days are likely to be re-signed by their new teams.

There's a reason why some organizations are successful and some aren't. Julien BriseBois didn't build the Tampa Bay Lightning into the championship caliber team they currently are. That distinction belongs to Steve Yzerman, who as a player helped the Detroit Red Wings win back-to-back Cups in '97 and '98, and who is now in charge of rebuilding that once proud franchise.

But BriseBois has been the magician pulling one rabbit after another out of the hat, retooling this team on the fly. Absent his moves, the Lightning would be no better than the Edmonton Oilers or the Toronto Maple Leafs: teams that excel during the regular season only to fail miserably once the playoffs begin.

If I'm Chris Drury, I start taking notes. His move to acquire forward Frank Vatrano from the Florida Panthers for a fourth round pick was a no brainer. The Panthers needed to dump salary to make room for defenseman Ben Chiarot from the Montreal Canadiens, and the Rangers had more than enough space to accommodate his $2.5 million cap hit. A win for both sides.

But as valuable as he might be, Vatrano is a UFA after the season, and even if he'd be willing to re-sign for the same salary, it's doubtful the Rangers will be able to afford him. That's because they already have $71 million committed next year with only 16 players under contract. That leaves just over $11 million left to fill out the roster. And the lion's share of that will likely go to Ryan Strome or his replacement. Once the Sharks and Tomas Hertl agreed to terms on an eight-year deal worth $8.1 million per, any hope of getting Strome to accept a team-friendly deal to remain on Broadway went out the window. 

Anyway you slice it, Drury will have his hands full trying to field a team that can contend for the Cup while still remaining cap compliant. If he's stuck, he could always ask BriseBois for a few pointers. In the NHL, there's no one better at navigating through the murky waters of the flat cap.

Like I said, genius.