Showing posts with label J.T. Miller. Show all posts
Showing posts with label J.T. Miller. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Exploring Drury's Options After Sending His 2025 Pick to Pittsburgh


Earlier today, the New York Rangers announced that they were sending their 2025 first round draft pick - 12th overall - to the Pittsburgh Penguins and retaining their 2026 first rounder. The move completes the trade in which the Rangers acquired J.T. Miller from the Vancouver Canucks back in February for a top-13 protected number one. The Rangers had until 48 hours before the Draft to decided which pick they were keeping. The reason it's going to Pittsburgh and not Vancouver is because the Canucks traded it to the Pens in the Marcus Pettersson deal.

So what does this mean?

For starters, I don't think it means that Chris Drury believes next year's pick will be higher, e.g., better. For his sake, it better not be. Indeed, the prevailing sentiment around the NHL is that this team, even with all its flaws, is much better than what it showed last season. That doesn't mean the Rangers will win the Presidents' Trophy, but it does mean they should make the playoffs. Why else would Drury hire Mike Sullivan to coach the team if he didn't feel that way?

That's why this move was so vital. Holding onto next year's first round pick provides Drury with five possible options.

One: An Offer Sheet. For almost a month now the scuttlebutt around the league has had the Rangers signing J.J. Peterka of the Buffalo Sabres to an offer sheet. There was just one hitch. If they kept their '25 first rounder, the Rangers wouldn't have one to send to Buffalo in the event the Sabres couldn't match the offer. An offer sheet with an AAV of $7.02 million per would require a first and third round pick as compensation. Here's the thing, though: based on the CBA, even if Drury front loaded the offer sheet with signing bonuses in each year, the highest salary he can pay Peterka in year one is $8.775m: $8m signing bonus and $775k base. Difficult, but hardly insurmountable for Buffalo. But in the end, why would the Sabres bother matching an offer for a player who has made it clear he doesn't want to be there?

Two: Leverage. Drury doesn't actually have to sign Peterka to an offer sheet; he can just threaten to do so. Indeed, if he plays his cards right, he might be able to negotiate a deal with his counterpart Kevyn Adams in which he keeps his first rounder and gives up, say, Gabe Perrault, Brennan Othmann and a third round pick for Peterka or Alexis Lafreniere and Braden Schneider for Peterka and Bowen Byram. Drury would then have to sign both players to long-term deals.

Three: Trade deadline acquisition. If the Rangers have the kind of season Drury expects them to have, he can use that pick to land a player at the deadline that can hopefully put them over the top. And with the salary cap going up to $104 million in the 2026-27 season and $113.5 million the following season, he could acquire a player with term without worrying about going over the cap, something he couldn't do in past years.

Four: Keep it. There's no law that says you have to trade your pick. If the Rangers unexpectedly shit the bed again this coming season, that first round pick will come in handy along with all the other picks the Rangers will accumulate by being sellers at the deadline. But, I stress, this is unlikely. 

Five: Trade a player on the roster for another player or pick in this year's draft. K'Andre Miller's name has been mentioned as a possible trade chip to acquire a forward or perhaps a draft pick in the upcoming draft. As I mentioned in an earlier piece, the defenseman has regressed over the last couple of seasons and remains an enigma. Perhaps a change of scenery would be best for both parties. 

The drama continues. 

We'll know soon enough what Drury's intentions are.



Saturday, March 8, 2025

Drury Retools on the Fly



To paraphrase that classic line from the Mel Brooks movie Blazing Saddles: "Memo? We don't need no stinkin' memo!"

Regardless of how you feel about Chris Drury, he's never been one to pussyfoot around when it comes to making changes to the roster. Coming off a season in which the New York Rangers won the Presidents' trophy for the first time in nine years, Drury took a long, hard look at his team and concluded it wasn't good enough to win the Stanley Cup. So he went to work.

Barclay Goodrow was waived in June; Jacob Trouba was traded to the Anaheim Ducks in December for Urho Vaakanainen and a 2025 fourth-round pick; Kaapo Kakko was traded to the Seattle Kraken - also in December - for Will Borgen and a '25 third and sixth-round pick; Arthur Kaliyev was picked up off waivers from the L.A. Kings in early January; Filip Chytil was traded to the Vancouver Canucks, along with Victor Mancini and a conditional first-round pick, at the end of January for J.T. Miller; Ryan Lindgren and Jimmy Vesey were traded to the Colorado Avalanche in March for Calvin de Haan, Juuso Parssinen and a '25 second and fourth-round pick; Reilly Smith, who was acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins over the summer, was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights the day before the trade deadline for Brendan Brisson and a '25 third-round pick from the San Jose Sharks; and, then Drury sent that third-rounder to Vancouver yesterday for Carson Soucy.

In just nine months, Drury has turned over almost a third of his roster. Think about it: Jeff Gorton needed two years to "rebuild" the Rangers; his successor appears to have "retooled" it in less than half that time. More importantly, by resisting the urge to give up draft capital going after high-priced rentals at the deadline, he has put himself in position to add the pieces he needs over the summer to get this team back into contention for the 2025-26 season. And unlike that 2017-18 team, this team still has a chance to make the playoffs, even with the last two disappointing OT losses. 

Really, if you think Drury sucks as a GM, all I can say is you either haven't been paying attention or you don't know much about hockey. The fact is this is a tougher, grittier team than the one that got eliminated by the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference finals last year. If anything, Drury should get credit for smelling the caffeine and cutting his losses. I guarantee you the same people who are calling for his head now will erect a statue to him if this team goes on to win a Cup in the near future.

The more I think about it, the more this Rangers team reminds me of the 1992-93 team. If you recall, that team also struggled after winning the Presidents' trophy the year before. Neil Smith acquired Kevin Lowe and Esa Tikkanen during the season, and even though the Blueshirts missed the playoffs, they went on to win the Cup in 1994.

Now I'm not predicting history will repeat itself here; after all, that Rangers team had Mark Messier. And as good as J.T. Miller is, no one who isn't high on crack would ever confuse him for The Captain. But there is a quality Miller possesses that this core has sadly lacked the last few seasons that is already beginning to rub off on his teammates. If Drury can add a few more players like him over the summer, who knows what could happen. If I had to grade his moves, I'd give him an A minus.

Which leads me to my first NHL post trade deadline rankings in two years. I'll just do the top five teams in each conference. 

Eastern Conference:

Florida Panthers: They were already the front runners going into the deadline. With the addition of Seth Jones and Brad Marchant, they are the prohibitive favorites to come out of the conference. 

Tampa Bay Lightning: Julien BriseBois reacquired Yanni Gourde and landed Oliver Bjorkstrand to beef up his bottom six. The goaltending speaks for itself.

Washington Capitals: What a turnaround for a team that barely squeaked into the playoffs last season. They're big and explosive, and they're well coached.

Toronto Maple Leafs: They added some beef on the blue line, but as always, it'll come down to what the fab four do.

Carolina Hurricanes: They traded a point per game player for a player who scored 6 points in 13 games. Then when that player said he wouldn't re-up with them, they traded him for a player who's scored 29 points in 59 games. BTW, they still don't have a 2C or an elite goalie, but then you already knew that.

Western Conference:

Vegas Golden Knights: They reacquired Reilly Smith, but that's about it. Truth is, they didn't need to do much to this roster. They're already loaded.

Dallas Stars: They stole Mikko Rantanen from the Carolina Hurricanes for two first rounders and a bottom six forward. I see a Dallas / Vegas conference final. 

Colorado Avalanche: The additions of Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle give them badly needed depth at center. Were it not for the Stars and Knights, they'd be the favorites in this conference. 

Winnipeg Jets: They might very well win the Presidents' trophy, and Connor Hellebuyck the Vezina. But I'll believe they're legit when I actually see them win in the playoffs.

Edmonton Oilers: Jake Walman will help them on the blue line, and Trent Frederic will give them some badly needed muscle up front. But Stan Bowman would've done better getting a goalie. 

And my pick for the Stanley Cup finals:

Panthers over Golden Knights 4-3



Thursday, February 20, 2025

Rangers At the Break



Heading into the break, the New York Rangers record stands at 27-24-4. Their 58 points puts them just three behind the Detroit Red Wings for the final Wild Card spot. After a horrific December in which they went 3-10-0, the Rangers have gone 11-5-3 in 2025. The power play was 26.8 percent (7th best), while the penalty kill was 75.6 percent (tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Anaheim Dicks for 16th best). The team's save percentage was .897 (5th best).

Now before I get into what the Rangers need to do going forward, I wanted to take a moment or two to give a shout out to the NHL and the NHLPA. Regardless of what happens tonight in Boston, the Four Nations Face-Off Tournament has been an unqualified success. Not since 1996 have fans been treated to this kind of competitiveness within the sport in what basically amounts to an exhibition series. Kudos all around.

The only blemish has been Charlie McAvoy. The Boston Bruin and Team USA defenseman sustained an injury on a cross check in the game against Finland, which was apparently misdiagnosed by Team USA physicians. He subsequently developed an infection and was hospitalized in Boston. His presence will be sorely missed tonight against Team Canada.

Apart from that, though, if I were Gary Bettman and Marty Walsh, I would do everything in my power to make sure something like this becomes an annual event. You don't necessarily need a round robin like we saw in this tournament; but perhaps a best 2 out of 3 featuring a team from North America vs. a team from Europe would suffice.

Imagine what the lineups would look like:

Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Sam Reinhart, Branden Pointe, Mitch Marner, Cale Makar, Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, both Tkachuk brothers, Jake Guentzel, Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy and Connor Hellebuyck going up against Sebastian Aho, Aleksander Barkov, Mikko Rantanen, William Nylander, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, Artemi Panarin, Filip Forsberg, Jesper Bratt, Mikael Granlund, Kirill Kaprizov, Andrei Svechnikov, Rasmus Dahlin and Andrei Vasilevskiy. I'll gladly take that any day over what the NHL laughingly calls an All-Star game.

Now back to the Rangers.

If this team is going to make the playoffs, they need to get serious. No more blown leads like they had against the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche and Montreal Canadiens, all of which became OT losses. No more sleepwalking against a Pittsburgh Penguins team that was missing Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. And no more reckless cross-ice passes in the offensive zone with 30 seconds left in the third period of a tie game that directly led to a regulation loss to the Avs. All told, the Blueshirts have given up six points over the last six weeks; six points they can ill afford to give up. If they had just three of those points back, they'd be tied with the Red Wings right now.

Starting Saturday, the Rangers need to go on a win streak. They play the Sabres in Buffalo, the Penguins in Pittsburgh and the Islanders at UBS Arena. Anything less than 3-0 against those teams is inexcusable. Indeed, between now and the end of the regular season, they probably need to go 20-7. If that seems like a tall order, it is. But that's what happens when you dig a hole as deep as the Blueshirts have.

In order to accomplish this herculean feat, the big boys are going to have to come through. Assuming Chris Drury doesn't clean house at the trade deadline - unlikely - it's time for Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider to pull their respective heads out their asses and wake the fuck up. Since the arrival of J.T. Miller, Zibanejad has 2 goals and 6 assists over his last 5 games. He needs to keep that pace up if this team has any chance of making the postseason. Likewise for Kreider, whose shorthanded goal against the Bruins proved to be the game winner.

Adam Fox also needs to step it up. It is unacceptable for a player as gifted as he is to have only four goals on the season, and keep in mind two of those goals were empty netters. Though he was never a particularly fast skater, this season he's looked more like Carol Vadnais than the former Norris trophy winner we all know and love. Vincent Trocheck has filled the leadership void created after Jacob Trouba was sent packing admirably, but even he needs to step it up offensively.

But while the players must ultimately bear the lion's share of responsibility for this nightmare of a season, their head coach isn't without blame. The fact is Peter Laviolette has been way too patient with this group. Case in point: Alexis Lafreniere. Over the last few weeks, the young winger has looked lost; his failure to back check has led to several glaring goals against. It is high time Laviolette employed some tough love and sat him for a game or two, if not for his sake than to send a message loud and clear that lack of effort will not be tolerated. You don't have to be John Tortorella to get your team's attention. 

Bottom line: The Rangers have the horses to make the playoffs. Whether or not they do depends on how badly they want it.



Wednesday, February 5, 2025

Five Worst Trades in Rangers History



Because the topic often comes up, I thought I'd give my two cents worth. As always, feel free to disagree with the order, or perhaps even add your own nominations.

1. Rick Middleton to the Boston Bruins for Ken Hodge: This trade has often been compared to the Mets sending Amos Otis to the Kansas City Royals for Joe Foy. But it's actually much worse. The Mets had won the World Series and had Tommie Agee in centerfield. Ed Charles had just retired and the Mets weren't sure if Wayne Garret could handle playing 3rd base full time, so you could almost forgive them for wanting to shore up what they perceived was a weakness on the infield. 

There is no such absolution for the Rangers. They were clearly in rebuild mode entering the 1976-77 season. John Ferguson was now in his second year as GM. Middleton was a young winger with enormous potential, while Hodge was a seasoned veteran whose best years were well behind him. Aside from the fact that Hodge had played with Phil Esposito during his Bruins days, there was simply no justification for making this trade. None.

2. J.T. Miller and Ryan McDonagh to the Tampa Bay Lightning for Libor Hajek, Brett Howden, Vlad Namestnikov, 2018 1st-Round Pick and 2019 2nd-Round Pick: The decision by Jeff Gorton to rebuild in the winter of 2018 was, in retrospect, the correct one. The window for this core was clearly closing, so it was time to break up the band. Where he fouled up was the return he got. Steve Yzerman clearly fleeced him on this deal. Of the three players who came over from the Lightning, only Howden - now a member of the Vegas Golden Knights - has had anything remotely resembling a successful NHL career. And the draft picks the Rangers received didn't amount to much either.

McDonagh, meanwhile, played an integral role in helping Tampa win two consecutive Stanley Cups, while Miller has become one of the NHL's premier centers, albeit playing for the Vancouver Canucks. By re-acquiring Miller last week, you could say Chris Drury has at least partially atoned for Gorton's mistake, though seven years after the fact.

3. Mike Ridley and Kelly Miller to the Washington Capitals for Bobby Carpenter: On paper, this trade made perfect sense. Phil Esposito had replaced Craig Patrick as Rangers GM and was looking to make his bones. Carpenter checked all the boxes: size, speed, you name it. It should've been a slam dunk. Except Carpenter was a flop on Broadway, registering a measly 10 points in 28 games before Espo dealt him to the LA Kings for Marcel Dionne. 

Ridley and Miller, on the other hand, would go on to have successful careers playing for the Caps, while Carpenter eventually finished his career with the New Jersey Devils, a shell of the player the Rangers thought they were getting when they traded for him. The moral of the story is quite simple: the grass isn't always greener on the other side of the street.

4. Sergei Zubov and Petr Nedved to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Ulf Samuelsson and Luc Robitaille: The post Stanley Cup years were very difficult ones for Neil Smith. At times, he didn't know which direction he wanted to take: retool or stay with the core. After the Rangers got swept by the Philadelphia Flyers in '95, he panicked and traded two of his more talented players for an admittedly physical defenseman and a veteran forward whose best years were behind him.

Zubov would go on to win another Cup with the Dallas Stars in 1999, while Nedved enjoyed his best season playing on a line with Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr. Oh, and by the way, the Pens beat the Rangers 4-1 in the second round of the '96 playoffs. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make.

5. Jean Ratelle and Brad Park to the Boston Bruins for Phil Esposito and Carol Vadnais: After the Islanders upset the Rangers in the 1975 preliminary round, it was clear this core was done. Emile Francis knew in his heart what he needed to do and that was rebuild. Instead, he swapped stars with the hated Bruins.

While Espo and Vadnais played an integral role in the Rangers getting to the finals in '79, there's no denying the fact that Boston got the better of this trade. Ratelle, Park and Middleton (see above) gave fans in Beantown years of excitement, while Rangers fans had to endure three seasons of misery until some of their younger players developed under a new front office regime.

Monday, February 3, 2025

It's Miller Time



Make no mistake about it, the New York Rangers were twenty minutes away from not only losing their fourth straight game, but from finding themselves on the exit ramp as far as the playoffs were concerned. After a crushing loss to the Colorado Avalanche in the final seconds of regulation, the Blueshirts followed that up with two uninspiring performances against the Carolina Hurricanes and Boston Bruins. The reason they were only trailing the Vegas Golden Knights 2-1 going into the third period was because Jonathan Quick was keeping them in the game. Their postseason hopes were on the brink.

That's when the prodigal son came through. With the Rangers on the power play, J.T. Miller took a cross ice pass from Artemi Panarin and fired a shot towards Adin Hill that he was unable to handle. Mika Zibanejad pounced on the loose puck and deposited it in the back of the net to tie the game. A few minutes later, K'Andre Miller blasted a shot from the left point that beat Hill cleanly to give New York a 3-2 lead. And with under two minutes left in regulation, and the Rangers on another power play, Panarin scored the insurance goal to ice the game. J.T. Miller assisted on that goal as well.

In just two games since returning to the Rangers, Miller has two goals and two assists. He was the lone bright spot in Boston, scoring twice and leading the team with six shots on goal. Against Vegas, he was a plus 2 and was on the ice for three of the Rangers four goals. His presence has been felt both on the bench and on the ice. How significant has Miller been? Mika Zibanaejad had his best game of the season with a goal and two assists, playing on Miller's right side with Panarin on the left. The trio combined for two goals and six assists. It's no exaggeration to say that every time that line was on the ice they were creating scoring chances. 

Peter Laviolette has gotten a lot of criticism this season - most of it justified - for the way his team has played. But his decision to unite his three best offensive players is, for now at least, an unqualified success. Most coaches would've just buried Zibanajead on the third line given the way he's played, but Laviolette realized - correctly, I might add - that if this team is going to make a run at the playoffs, it will need contributions from number 93. Credit him for that much.

But it wasn't just the three points Zibanejad registered that was noteworthy. He looked like a man possessed out there. He battled all game long. He kept the puck in the zone on the Rangers first power play goal. Frankly, I haven't seen him play with this much intensity in well over a year. If Miller can motivate this guy, this might just go down as the most consequential Rangers trade since October of 1991. Yes, I went there. But before you get on my case, I'm not suggesting that J.T. Miller is Mark Messier. I may be old but I'm not senile. What I am suggesting is that Miller, like Messier before him, is a passionate player who can't stand losing. I'm positive that's what led to his "leave of absence" earlier in the year, which eventually led to his exit out of Vancouver. Sometimes you're the cancer; other times you're the cure. In this case, Chris Drury is hoping it's the latter.

And speaking of Drury, his detractors might end up eating crow before the season is out. Since last summer he has unloaded both Barclay Goodrow and Jacob Trouba without retaining a cent of their respective salaries; acquired two stay at home defensemen in Urho Vaakanainen and Will Borgen who have solidified a blue line that was as leaky as the RMS Titanic; and landed a number one center in Miller for a player whose next shift might well be his last and a lottery protected first round draft pick. 

As a result of his wheeling and dealing, the Rangers currently have $9.3 million in available cap space, which translates to $16.5 million in deadline cap space, meaning if the Rangers actually do make a run at the postseason, Drury will have a boatload of cap space at his disposal to further tweak this roster. Maybe he isn't Mr. Congeniality, but the guy knows his shit. He's ten times the GM Glen Sather ever was. 

But all that may be irrelevant if the Rangers don't make the postseason. After last night's win, they're currently five points out. Between now and the NHL trade deadline on March 7, the Blueshirts play eleven games. All but three are against teams that are currently in the playoffs. Conservatively speaking, New York will have to win at least eight of those games in order to get within striking distance of a wildcard spot; no small feat given how erratic they've been. 

Indeed, for the Rangers to avoid being only the third team in NHL history to miss the playoffs after winning the Presidents trophy the season before, they will likely have to go 21-8-1 over their last 30 games. They would then finish with a record of 46-31-5 for 97 points. And even that might not be enough to get in. That's how tight the playoff race is in the Eastern Conference this year.

The problem with digging a hole halfway to China is that sometimes you wind up closer to downtown Beijing than you do to midtown Manhattan.



Saturday, January 25, 2025

How the Rantanen Deal Impacts Drury's Pursuit of J.T. Miller



In the first blockbuster trade of the 2024-25 NHL season, the Colorado Avalanche sent Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for Martin Necas, Jack Drury and two draft picks - a 2025 second rounder and a '26 fourth rounder. The Chicago Blackhawks, as part of the deal, agreed to retain 50 percent of Rantanen's salary and sent Taylor Hall to the Hurricanes in exchange for a '25 third round pick. 

Leaving aside for the moment that Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson is a shoo-in for the patsy of the year award for getting a lousy third rounder in exchange for eating half of $9.2 million and relinquishing a still serviceable forward, the Avs are the clear winners here. They get an outstanding young winger under contract next season who is having a career year and a solid checking center for a pending UFA they likely weren't going to be able to re-sign. 

While Rantanen is a better player than Necas, he's not that much better. The fact is this trade does nothing to address Carolina's two biggest needs: elite goaltending and depth at center. Two years after losing Vincent Trocheck to the New York Rangers, the Hurricanes still haven't found a replacement for him. Jesperi Kotkaniemi is at best a 3C. Not only aren't the Canes a better team, you could make the argument they're worse off now than they were before the trade. And if it turns out they can't re-sign Rantanen, this will go down as the most expensive rental in league history. 

Now for the main course: How does this trade impact Chris Drury's pursuit of J.T. Miller? In a word, it improves his chances. With Carolina now seemingly out of the picture and the Vancouver Canucks stuck in a corner, Drury's leverage to land the former Ranger has gone up considerably. Word has it that Miller is pulling a Patrick Kane by informing Jim Rutherford that he will only accept a trade to an Eastern Conference team, preferably the Rangers. If that's so, Drury can wait out his counterpart. 

Stat Boy Steven thinks an acceptable trade would be Filip Chytil, Adam Sykora and a first round pick for Miller (25 percent retained). I would go further and make the first rounder conditional on the Rangers making it to the conference finals. Otherwise, it's a second rounder only. 

Why trade Chytil, especially when he's under contract for the next two seasons at $4.43 million? The reason should be obvious enough. For all his talent, Chytil is a disaster waiting to happen. He missed all but ten games last season after sustaining a concussion in what looked like a rather routine collision with Sebastian Aho of the Hurricanes. Let's face it: every time he gets checked, it's a potential career ender. If Drury can move him for a two-way player that wins face-offs and who scored 103 points last season, he'd be a fool not to.

I know what you're saying - I read your posts on Twitter. Another 31 year old center who's under contract through the 2029-30 season. What on Earth could Drury be thinking saddling the organization with that much term? At least Neil Smith had a Stanley Cup to show for his eleven years in the front office. All Drury has to show for his efforts is two trips to the Eastern Conference finals. But ask yourself this question: if Chytil had been healthy during last year's playoff run, how many more games would the Rangers have won? Maybe it wouldn't have made any difference against a team like the Florida Panthers, or maybe it would've made all the difference in the world. The point is we'll never know. 

What we do know is this: betting on Chytil not to get injured again is like playing Russian Roulette with a loaded chamber. Aside from his leave of absence earlier this year, Miller has missed a grand total of five games over the last four seasons. That's about as durable as it gets in today's NHL. On his first day back in a Rangers uniform he'd be the team's number one center.

Bottom line, unless Vancouver is unreasonable, Drury needs to pull the trigger and make the deal. After going through a hellish December, the Rangers have turned their season around this month. The playoffs are now very much in sight. But making the playoffs is not the goal; winning the Cup is. If J.T. Miller can get them closer to that goal, it's worth taking a shot.


Wednesday, February 9, 2022

When It Comes to Trades It Takes Two to Tango



Even though the NHL trade deadline is still more than a month away, rumors are circulating about who might be on the move and where. On Twitter, Rangers fans are finalizing their post-Christmas shopping lists and, as is typical for them, coming up with some creative suggestions.

Of course, the problem with making a trade is that it invariably hinges on two things: 1. Who you're competing against; and 2. How willing both sides are to arrive at a mutually beneficial arrangement.

Regarding the former, it's obvious the Rangers aren't the only team looking to improve their playoff prospects by adding one or more players. The Bruins have been looking for a second-line center ever since David Krejci retired; the Panthers are in need of someone, anyone, capable of playing defense; and the Avalanche could use a goaltender. You can bet they, and a few other teams, will be burning up the phone lines between now and March 21 in an attempt to address those needs.

Regarding the latter, contrary to what the Twitterverse says, it's rare that one team gets the better of another. For a trade to be consummated, both teams have to be realistic about their demands. Remember the Jack Eichel standoff? The Sabres were adamant that they weren't going to part with the all-star center unless they received the proverbial king's ransom in return. In the end, what they got from the Golden Knights was a second-line winger, a future center, a first-round pick in 2022 and a third-round pick in 2023. Not a bad haul, but hardly what I would call a king's ransom.

The bottom line is, fans don't make trades, GMs do. And that's why, if I'm a Rangers fan, I wouldn't get my hopes up about Chris Drury going trade happy at or before the deadline. Yes, per Capfriendly, the Blueshirts will have a shit-load of cap space with which to add players at the trade deadline; more than any other team that's out there. And, yes, it's better to have more cap space than less, even if it's only temporary. But having cap space is one thing; being able to utilize it is another.

In the end, any moves Drury makes will come down to who he's willing to give up and, more importantly, who he's not willing to give up. If he can find a reasonable trade partner to deal with, he'll pull the trigger; if he can't, the Rangers will go into the playoffs as is. 

With that in mind, I thought I'd conjure up a few of the more realistic trades that Drury could make that would improve his team's chances come May. I'm not saying these are done deals, just doable.

From the Vegas Golden Knights: Reilly Smith for a second-round pick in 2022 and Vitali Kravtsov. The Golden Knights need to clear about $5 mill in cap space and the Rangers need help at right wing. Smith is a UFA after the season, so he'd be a pure rental. He's played for Gerard Gallant before and he's familiar with his system. A win-win for both sides. You hate giving up a kid like Kravtsov with so much potential, but after what happened at the start of the season, some fences can't be mended. 

From the Arizona Coyotes: Phil Kessel for a second-round pick in 2022. Like Smith, he'd be a rental, except he'd be a lot cheaper to acquire. I'll be honest, Kessel wouldn't be my first choice but he's been on two Stanley Cup championship teams in Pittsburgh and his playoff experience will prove invaluable. Plus, he beats the hell out of Dryden Hunt at right wing. As for the talk of Jakob Chychrun, forget it. At $4.6m over the next three years, he's way too expensive for a team that has several, more pressing needs.

From the Seattle Kraken: Mark Giordano for a second and third-round pick in 2022, a third rounder in '23 and Patrik Nemeth. Ron Francis agrees to take Nemeth's $2.5m contract off Drury's hands for the next two seasons in exchange for some badly-needed draft capital, and the Rangers add an experienced defenseman to solidify their third pairing.

From the Vancouver Canucks: J.T. Miller for Filip Chytil, Nils Lundkvist and 2022's first rounder. As I wrote in an earlier piece, the only way Drury goes after Miller is if he feels he can't re-sign Ryan Strome. Miller has one more year remaining on his contract at a very team-friendly $5.25m, so acquiring him won't hamstring the organization in their efforts to extend Kaapo Kakko in the offseason. Of all the potential trades, this one might be the most difficult to pull off because the Canucks will likely want Braden Schneider instead of Lundkvist, and according to Larry Brooks of The New York Post, Drury has labeled him untouchable.

From the Winnipeg Jets: Mark Scheifele for Chytil, Lundkvist, and a first and second rounder in 2022. His name has surfaced recently. He's signed thru the '24 season, but at $6.125m, he might be a little too expensive for an organization that has several players it will have to sign to extensions over the next couple of years. Like Miller, if Drury goes this route, it means Strome is gone after the season.

From the Dallas Stars: Joe Pavelski for a first and second round pick in 2022, Chytil, Kravtsov and Lundkvist. This will be an expensive acquisition, but as rentals go, it doesn't get any better than Pavelski, who at 37, is leading his team in scoring. I'm not even sure this haul will be enough to land him, that's how valuable he is. One potential roadblock: Dallas is still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, so they may not want to trade him, even for a "king's ransom."

From the Philadelphia Flyers: Claude Giroux for a first-round pick in 2022 and Chytil. Chuck Fletcher still believes the Flyers can make a push in the second half, so he might not shop Giroux. But let's say he's willing to part with him, the Bruins might come to the table with a better package. Charlie Coyle and a number one would definitely be better than the Rangers offer, and unless Drury wants to get into a bidding war, the asking price might be too steep. Still, Giroux would be a great addition for the Rangers at center, and as a rental wouldn't upset the apple cart.

Of all the potential trades I listed above, the two I think are the most likely to come to fruition are Smith and / or Kessel. The Rangers need help at right wing and both these players represent considerable improvements over what they have. Since they'd be rentals, Gallant can keep Alexis Lafreniere on the third line with Chytil and either Kakko or Barclay Goodrow. And if they land both, Gallant can slot Goodrow on the fourth line with Kevin Rooney and Ryan Reaves. I also think it's possible they get Giordano, though that begs the question, what does Drury do with Nemeth if Francis balks at taking him in a deal?

I still think at the end of the day, Drury would prefer to re-sign Strome, but if he can't, Miller remains a viable option over Scheifele. As for Pavelski, I predict Dallas will hold onto him, the Bruins will end up with Giroux, and the Avs will acquire Marc-Andre Fleury from the Blackhawks, making them the odds-on favorite to win the Cup.

In my next piece, I'll rate what I think are the top eight teams in each conference.

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

The Pros and Cons of Rangers Trading for J.T. Miller


Before I get to J.T. Miller, a word on the new Covid-19 protocols that the NHL and the NHL Players' association jointly announced. Beginning February 3, the league will no longer test fully vaccinated, asymptomatic players. Only players who develop symptoms will be tested, and if positive, will be isolated. The lone exception will be teams that travel across the border to Canada. In those instances, the protocols will be dictated by the "relevant health authorities." In other words, for teams in the lower 48, the NHL will adopt the NFL protocols; for teams in Canada, the Provinces will run the show.

It's a welcome sign that this league, which was forced to postpone dozens of games over the last six weeks, has finally admitted what the medical experts have been saying for a couple of months now: that while Covid-19 isn't going anywhere, for the vast majority of people who are fully vaccinated, the health risk is relatively small. In the end, pragmatism won out. Good for them, and good for the fans who will now be able to see their teams play at or near full capacity.

Now onto the main topic. Frank Seravalli of Daily Face-off is reporting that the Rangers are one of the teams interested in trading for the services of the Vancouver Canucks' center. 

Let's assume for the moment that Seravalli is right and Chris Drury is serious about re-acquiring the player his predecessor Jeff Gorton sent packing in 2017, along with Ryan McDonagh, in what is now considered one of the franchise's most lopsided trades. 

It would signal two things: 1. After returning home from a 3-2 road trip that saw them take over first place in the Metropolitan division with 54 points, Drury believes this team has a legitimate shot at a deep run in the postseason; and 2. Contract negotiations with Ryan Strome's agent don't appear to be going well. If I had to guess, I'd say it's mostly the latter that is driving this bus.

With Strome scheduled to become a UFA after the season, it's logical to assume he is seeking a rather long and substantial payday, say six years at around $7 million AAV. He's currently making $4.5 million. Given the cap constraints the Rangers will be under for the foreseeable future, such a contract would be too rich for Drury's blood. So unless he can talk Strome's agent down to a more mutually beneficial number, say four years at closer to $5.75M AAV, Drury's hands will be tied.

Hence the Miller speculation.

Of course, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to learn that Drury is floating the idea of a possible class reunion with Miller to force Strome's agent to come to the table. I can't be the only one who thinks it wasn't a coincidence that within 24 hours after Larry Brooks of The New York Post reported last October that the Rangers would only be interested in trading for Jack Eichel if they believed they couldn't re-sign Mika Zibanejad that the two sides miraculously came to an agreement on a contract extension. The more I see of Drury, the more impressed I become with him.

So, what are the pros and cons of J.T. Miller coming back to the organization that drafted him?

The pros:

1. Since his departure from Broadway, Miller has developed into one of the better pivotmen in the NHL, averaging just under a point a game over the last three seasons. With 38 points in 38 games, he is currently the leading scorer on the Canucks this year. As a Ranger, he would be tied with Artemi Panarin for second in team scoring, right behind Adam Fox, who has 39.

2. In addition to his offense, Miller is exceptional on draws. At 53.5 percent, he would be tops on the Rangers. For a team that has struggled winning face-offs over the last few years, this would be like manna from heaven.

3. Miller has one of the best team-friendly contracts in the league at $5.25 million AAV and is signed thru 2023. Re-acquiring him would give Drury the financial flexibility he needs to retain Kaapo Kakko, who is scheduled to become an RFA after the season. It also doesn't hamstring him if he wants to acquire a rental like Reilly Smith from the Vegas Golden Knights. Imagine a top line of Chris Kreider, Zibanaejad and Smith and a second line of Panarin, Miller and Strome, who I assume would shift to right wing. Now that would be a helluva one-two punch.

The cons:

1. Strome is gone. I've crunched the numbers over and over and there's no way the Rangers can afford to keep both Miller and Strome next season. Even if they decide to let Kakko walk - a bad idea - and they find someone to take Patrik Nemeth off their hands, they still don't have the room for both players. With the salary cap scheduled to increase by only one million to $82.5 in 2022-23 - and that's assuming the Omicron variant doesn't impact the league's bottom line further - a lot of teams are going to be faced with some tough choices next season, the Rangers no exception. Face it, this pandemic has really fucked things up royally.

2. The chemistry on the team could suffer. So far this season, the Rangers have been one of the most resilient teams in the NHL. They continue to defy the analytics gods who insist they aren't as good as their record suggests. They currently have the third-best penalty kill percentage in the league and their power play has been in the top ten for most of the season. They also boast one of the best goaltenders in Igor Shesterkin. His acrobatics in net have allowed them to win games they had no business winning. Trading for Miller could upset the apple cart, so to speak. There's no way of telling how Panarin would react knowing that Strome's days with the team are numbered. Drury would be taking a huge gamble potentially pissing off his top winger.

3. Despite Miller's team-friendly contract, Drury would only be kicking the can down the road an additional year. Come the '23 season, he'd be faced with the same dilemma he's facing now: a pending UFA he can't afford to re-sign. With no one in the system capable of stepping in - and let's face it, Morgan Barron is not the answer - Drury would have the daunting task of trying to find someone who can put up numbers comparable to either Strome or Miller, and who doesn't cost a king's ransom. Good luck with that.

So why Miller and not someone like Tomas Hertl of the San Jose Sharks? As a UFA, Hertl would be the ideal rental and Drury could land him without sacrificing any of his valuable assets. Then there's Claude Giroux. With the Philadelphia Flyers sinking faster than the Lusitania, a second-rounder and a couple of prospects might do the trick.

A rental, of course, assumes Drury can re-sign Strome. All things being equal, he'd probably prefer to do that. But if Strome's agent plays hardball, Drury may have no other option than to pull the trigger on Miller. Getting him won't be cheap. Vancouver will demand at the very least a first round pick, a young center who can develop - Filip Chytil makes sense - and a top prospect - anyone but Braden Schneider, Will Cuylle or Brennan Othmann.