Showing posts with label NHL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NHL. Show all posts

Thursday, February 20, 2025

Rangers At the Break



Heading into the break, the New York Rangers record stands at 27-24-4. Their 58 points puts them just three behind the Detroit Red Wings for the final Wild Card spot. After a horrific December in which they went 3-10-0, the Rangers have gone 11-5-3 in 2025. The power play was 26.8 percent (7th best), while the penalty kill was 75.6 percent (tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Anaheim Dicks for 16th best). The team's save percentage was .897 (5th best).

Now before I get into what the Rangers need to do going forward, I wanted to take a moment or two to give a shout out to the NHL and the NHLPA. Regardless of what happens tonight in Boston, the Four Nations Face-Off Tournament has been an unqualified success. Not since 1996 have fans been treated to this kind of competitiveness within the sport in what basically amounts to an exhibition series. Kudos all around.

The only blemish has been Charlie McAvoy. The Boston Bruin and Team USA defenseman sustained an injury on a cross check in the game against Finland, which was apparently misdiagnosed by Team USA physicians. He subsequently developed an infection and was hospitalized in Boston. His presence will be sorely missed tonight against Team Canada.

Apart from that, though, if I were Gary Bettman and Marty Walsh, I would do everything in my power to make sure something like this becomes an annual event. You don't necessarily need a round robin like we saw in this tournament; but perhaps a best 2 out of 3 featuring a team from North America vs. a team from Europe would suffice.

Imagine what the lineups would look like:

Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Sam Reinhart, Branden Pointe, Mitch Marner, Cale Makar, Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, both Tkachuk brothers, Jake Guentzel, Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy and Connor Hellebuyck going up against Sebastian Aho, Aleksander Barkov, Mikko Rantanen, William Nylander, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, Artemi Panarin, Filip Forsberg, Jesper Bratt, Mikael Granlund, Kirill Kaprizov, Andrei Svechnikov, Rasmus Dahlin and Andrei Vasilevskiy. I'll gladly take that any day over what the NHL laughingly calls an All-Star game.

Now back to the Rangers.

If this team is going to make the playoffs, they need to get serious. No more blown leads like they had against the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche and Montreal Canadiens, all of which became OT losses. No more sleepwalking against a Pittsburgh Penguins team that was missing Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. And no more reckless cross-ice passes in the offensive zone with 30 seconds left in the third period of a tie game that directly led to a regulation loss to the Avs. All told, the Blueshirts have given up six points over the last six weeks; six points they can ill afford to give up. If they had just three of those points back, they'd be tied with the Red Wings right now.

Starting Saturday, the Rangers need to go on a win streak. They play the Sabres in Buffalo, the Penguins in Pittsburgh and the Islanders at UBS Arena. Anything less than 3-0 against those teams is inexcusable. Indeed, between now and the end of the regular season, they probably need to go 20-7. If that seems like a tall order, it is. But that's what happens when you dig a hole as deep as the Blueshirts have.

In order to accomplish this herculean feat, the big boys are going to have to come through. Assuming Chris Drury doesn't clean house at the trade deadline - unlikely - it's time for Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider to pull their respective heads out their asses and wake the fuck up. Since the arrival of J.T. Miller, Zibanejad has 2 goals and 6 assists over his last 5 games. He needs to keep that pace up if this team has any chance of making the postseason. Likewise for Kreider, whose shorthanded goal against the Bruins proved to be the game winner.

Adam Fox also needs to step it up. It is unacceptable for a player as gifted as he is to have only four goals on the season, and keep in mind two of those goals were empty netters. Though he was never a particularly fast skater, this season he's looked more like Carol Vadnais than the former Norris trophy winner we all know and love. Vincent Trocheck has filled the leadership void created after Jacob Trouba was sent packing admirably, but even he needs to step it up offensively.

But while the players must ultimately bear the lion's share of responsibility for this nightmare of a season, their head coach isn't without blame. The fact is Peter Laviolette has been way too patient with this group. Case in point: Alexis Lafreniere. Over the last few weeks, the young winger has looked lost; his failure to back check has led to several glaring goals against. It is high time Laviolette employed some tough love and sat him for a game or two, if not for his sake than to send a message loud and clear that lack of effort will not be tolerated. You don't have to be John Tortorella to get your team's attention. 

Bottom line: The Rangers have the horses to make the playoffs. Whether or not they do depends on how badly they want it.



Friday, October 21, 2022

Gary Bettman's Potential Early Christmas Present



NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman's announcement, following a board of governors meeting in New York, that the salary cap might go up to $86.5 million instead of the expected $83.5 million came as welcomed news to every general manager and player agent in the sport.

"We believe that there is a good probability that the escrow will be paid off this season. It may not be, but it’s going to be close we think, which means the flat cap will be replaced by a bigger increase. Revenue is pretty vibrant. We probably did $5.4 billion in [hockey-related revenues] this past season, which is actually about a half a billion more than we projected a year ago when we were starting things up. Things are good."

For those who haven't been paying attention - and from what I've seen on Twitter, that appears to be a rather large contingent of fans - the league has been operating under a flat cap since the 2019-20 season was paused due to the Covid-19 pandemic. At the time, the salary cap was $81.5 million, and to make sure the cap wasn't reduced, the NHLPA agreed to have part of their players salaries placed into an escrow account. The understanding being that once that balance was paid off, the cap would resume its pre-pandemic trajectory. Initially, that was supposed to be at the conclusion of the 2023-24 season. That timeline has now been accelerated by one season.

It cannot be overstated just how significant this development is. Notwithstanding the financial losses the league suffered, many teams are literally staring at cap hell, both this season and next. A look at some of the moves GMs were forced to make over the past two summers underscores just how difficult it's been to build and retain a core of players. Many teams were unable to field a full roster of 23 players this season because they simply don't have the cap space. The Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche couldn't re-sign their number two center Nazem Kadri over the summer because they would've been over the cap. He subsequently signed with the Calgary Flames. Imagine if the Avs had an extra $3 million in the kitty.

Closer to home, Chris Drury is facing something of a quandary himself. At the conclusion of this season, Alexis Lafreniere, K'Andre Miller and Filip Chytil are all RFAs. At present, the Rangers, after waiving Dryden Hunt - or as Ranger Twitter has referred to him, the second coming of Rick Middleton - have just over $900k in cap space. That translates to about $4 million in deadline cap space for Drury to shop around for reinforcements at the trade deadline.

Assuming there are no additional buyouts this offseason, the Rangers will get $3.4 million in dead cap space off the books. Every cent of that money, and then some, will go to re-signing either Lafreniere or Miller, leaving Drury with some tough choices about which players to trade or let go. Even with the expected additional $1 million in salary cap and the expiration of Ryan Reaves' $1.75 million contract, there just isn't enough room at the inn to keep the band together. Imagine going through the pains of a rebuild and not being able to see it all the way through.

Now if all goes according to plan, Drury might be able to have his cake and eat it too. With a salary cap at $86.5 million, the Rangers would be able to keep Lafreniere, Miller and Chytil, provided they can get at least one of them - preferably Chytil - into a bridge deal. Below is what a potential 2023-24 roster could look like:


2023-24 Salary Cap $86,500,000.00

Forwards
Panarin $11,642,857.00
Zibanejad $8,500,000.00
Kreider $6,500,000.00
Trocheck $5,625,000.00
Lafreniere $5,000,000.00
Chytil $3,750,000.00
Goodrow $3,641,667.00
Kakko $2,100,000.00
Blais $1,525,000.00
Othmann $894,167.00
Korczak $859,167.00
Cuylle $828,333.00
Rydahl $800,000.00


Total $51,666,191.00


Defensemen
Fox $9,500,000.00
Trouba $8,000,000.00
Miller $4,000,000.00
Lindgren $3,000,000.00
Jones $1,200,000.00
Schneider$925,000.00

Total $26,625,000.00


Goalies
Gerand $828,333.00
Shesterkin $5,666,667.00

Total $6,495,000.00


Total Cap Hit $84,786,191.00
CAP SPACE $1,713,809.00



As you'll note, I have Blais returning next year for the same salary he's making now and both Othmann and Cuylle making the team. Also, I have Gerand as the backup to Igor. I assume Drury will include Vitali Kravtsov in a deadline deal for either Patrick Kane or someone with a similar skill set. The bottom line is that under the higher cap, the Rangers would be able to retain not only their core but their young studs as well for the foreseeable future.

Of course, none of this is etched in stone. Knowing the NHL's penchant for disappointing their fans, it's entirely possible that the escrow might not be fully paid off by the end of the season. In that event, Bettman has made it clear that the cap will only go up $1 million to $83.5. And if that's the case, GM's like Drury will have to, once more, make lemonade out of lemons.


Tuesday, October 11, 2022

2022-23 NHL Predictions



Seeing as how I was so "great" with my predictions last year - I actually had the Islanders over the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup finals and neither team qualified for the postseason - I thought I'd give it another whirl. As always, take them with a rather large grain of salt.

Eastern Conference:

Atlantic Division:

Florida Panthers: They gave up their leading scorer and second best defenseman to land Matthew Tkachuk. That should tell you how desperate they were to get rid of the stench of last year's sweep at the hands of the Lightning. Time will tell if it was worth it.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Both Ryan McDonagh and Ondrej Palat were cap casualties and will be sorely missed. But there's still more than enough talent on this roster, and so long as they have Andrei Vasilevskiy in net, they have to be taken seriously as a Cup contender.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Everyone has jumped on their bandwagon this season, which is odd given that they didn't address their lack of depth during the offseason and they're relying on a goaltender whose best years are half a decade behind him. Auston Matthews will once again keep them relevant. 

Metropolitan Division:

New York Rangers: Vincent Trocheck is a step above Ryan Strome; the "kids" seem poised to have a break out year; and last season's Vezina trophy winner Igor Shesterkin is the best in the league. Chris Drury has done a masterful job as GM.

Carolina Hurricanes: Yes, Brent Burns is better than Tony DeAngelo, and they got Max Pacioretty from the Golden Knights ostensibly for free, but losing Trocheck to the Rangers and Nino Niederreiter to the Predators will cost them.

Pittsburgh Penguins: They kept "the band" together. So what? The last time this "band" won a playoff series was 2018. The core of this team is old and getting older. Ron Hextall keeps punting the ball hoping for a muff. It won't work.

Wild Cards: 

Boson Bruins: God only knows how Don Sweeney managed to entice Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to return on such team-friendly contracts - $2.5m and $1m respectively. Good for him. Sans them, this team would have a hard time staying above .500. But even with both on the roster, it's hard imagining them going far in the playoffs.

Columbus Blue Jackets: They made the biggest splash during the offseason, signing Johnny Gaudreau and then re-signed Patrik Laine. They'll score a ton of goals but struggle on D. 


Western Conference:

Central Division: 

Colorado Avalanche: They steamrolled their way to a Stanley Cup championship last season, going 16-4 in the tournament. And while losing Nazem Kadri to the Flames will test the depth of this team, the core is about as elite as it gets.

Nashville Predarors: McDonagh and Niederreiter were solid additions during the offseason and will make this team a formidable opponent during both the regular and postseason. Their goaltending is elite and their defense is among the best in the league.

St. Louis Blues: Balanced scoring throughout the lineup makes them a genuine threat, and Jordan Binnington is still one of the better goalies in the league.

Pacific Division:

Calgary Flames: Talk about turning lemons into lemonade. Their two best players departed over the summer: one via free agency, the other via a trade, and they managed to actually get better. Jonathan Huberdeau is one of the best forwards in the league and Kadri was the second best center on last year's Colorado Cup team. Despite last season's poor showing against the Oilers in the second round, Jacob Markstrom is an outstanding goaltender.

Edmonton Oilers: I'm going out on a limb here by picking them again for second place. They have the scoring up front with Connor McDavid; the issue is the defense. Jack Campbell may not be an elite goalie, but he's head over heels better than Mike Smith.

L.A. Kings: They lucked out when the Wild had to shed Kevin Fiala's contract in an obvious salary dump. Now they will at least be able to put some pucks in the net. Jonathan Quick should still have enough left in the tank to give them first-rate goaltending.

Wild Cards:

Minnesota Wild: Fiala was a salary cap casualty. And that's unfortunate for a team that challenged for second place in the division last season. They re-signed Marc-Andre Fleury so that will help.

Vancouver Canucks: Now that they've extended J.T. Miller and they have their coach in place, I expect they will do what they should've done last year: make the playoffs.

Close but no cigar:

Eastern Conference:

New York Islanders: For the second straight offseason, Lou Lamoriello failed to add an elite scorer to this otherwise pedestrian forward group. Pity Mathew Barzall, who deserves better than what he's been given.

Washington Capitals: They needed to get younger and didn't. The good news is that at least their fans will be able to see Alex Ovechkin break Wayne Gretzky's goal record.

New Jersey Devils: They needed a sniper on the wing; they got Ondrej Palat. They needed a solid goaltender; they got Vitek Vanecek. They'll score a lot of goals; they'll give up more.

Western Conference:

Vegas Golden Knights: Their successful pursuit of Jack Eichel has cost them Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, and Max Pacioretty. It will now cost them a second-consecutive postseason berth.

Dallas Stars: They extended the Flames a full seven games in the opening round of the playoffs last season. This year they won't get that chance.

Playoffs:

Eastern Conference Finals: Rangers over the Lightning 4-2

Western Conference Finals: Avalanche over the Flames 4-3

Stanley Cup Finals: Avalanche over the Rangers 4-2


Year End Awards:

Presidents' Trophy: Colorado Avalanche

Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid, Oilers

Hart Trophy: Jonathan Huberdeau, Flames

Norris Trophy: Roman Josi, Predators

Vezina Trophy: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning

Jack Adams Award: Gerard Gallant, Rangers

Conn Smythe Trophy: Cale Makar, Avalanche

Tuesday, October 4, 2022

Analyzing the 2022-23 Rangers



Last season was one of the most exciting and unexpected for the New York Rangers in more than a generation. After missing the playoffs four straight years, the Blueshirts not only qualified for the postseason, they made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals. And if they hadn't run out of gas against the Tampa Bay Lightning, they would've made it all the way to finals.

This team is now a bonafide contender, and that is due in no small part to the job Chris Drury has done as GM. While his predecessor Jeff Gorton laid the foundation, Drury added the missing pieces, including the head coach, Gerard Gallant, who was the polar opposite of David Quinn. The rebuild was a resounding success.

So let's breakdown where this team stands and the key players who will determine how successful it will be this season.

Vincent Trocheck. The former Carolina Hurricane is an upgrade over Ryan Strome, who signed with the Anaheim Ducks over the summer. Trocheck checks all the boxes. He's a good skater, good passer, good checker and good in his own zone. He's not afraid to go into the corners and, oh yeah, he's good on face-offs. Last season, he won 54.6 percent of his draws. He's a solid 2C who will benefit from having Artemi Panarin on his line.

Vitali Kravtsov: After last year's clusterfuck, it's obvious Drury had no intention of letting lightning strike twice. The talented winger has been practicing exclusively with Panarin during the preseason and the two have developed a chemistry that, if it clicks in the regular season, will give the Rangers one of the better second lines in the league. If it doesn't, Drury will have trade bait at the deadline.

The Kid Line: It's no secret that the Rangers relied a great deal on Alexis Lafreniere, Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko in the postseason. Without this line, it's doubtful they would've beaten the Penguins in the first round, much less the Hurricanes in the second. It seems Gallant has decided, for now, to keep the kids together to start the season. How long they stay together will depend on how well both they and the right wings on lines one and two perform.

Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox and Panarin: There's no getting around it. The Rangers will go as far as the Fab Four takes them. Kreider's 52 regular season goals led the team last season, and while he doesn't necessarily need a repeat performance, the team can't afford to have him revert to his old ways of scoring 28. Zibanejad was second on the team in power play goals with 15 and led the team in postseason scoring with 24; Fox finished right behind with 23. While Panarin struggled in the playoffs, he is the one of the most talented forwards in the NHL. His 96 points led the team.

Braden Schneider: Mini Trouba, as he is called in the locker room, had an impressive rookie season. The Rangers are counting on him to develop into a solid, stay at home defenseman. With Zac Jones on his left, the two should be a considerable upgrade over the tandem of Patrik Nemeth and Nils Lundkvist, both of whom Drury unloaded during the offseason. 

K'Andre Miller: With the exception of Lafreniere, no other player on this team is poised to have the kind of breakout year than Miller. He was third on the team in plus / minus with 23. He has the size, speed and skating ability to be an elite defenseman in the NHL. The sky's the limit with this kid. Like Lafreniere, he will be an RFA after the season, meaning Drury will have his hands full getting him re-signed.

Igor Shesterkin: Last season's Vezina's trophy winner was also unquestionably the team's MVP. He led the league in save percentage (.935) and goals against average (2.07). The Rangers will need him to be just as brilliant this season.

The Power Play: The Rangers had the fourth best power play in the league last season at 25.2 percent. And on a team that struggled to score at 5v5, that was the key to their success; that and Shesterkin's acrobatics in net. For the Blueshirts to contend this season, they will need the power play to be as potent.

The prognosis: Unlike last season, when Gallant was trying to figure out who went where, most of the positions on this team are set. Indeed, the only questions remaining to be answered are who will play RW on the Zibanejad line, and who will the team keep as its 13th forward and 7th defenseman. The Rangers are one of those rare teams that has a veteran core but also some of the youngest players in the league. That combination might just be the special sauce that propels them over the top.

The fact is if you look objectively at the Eastern Conference, a case can be made that the Rangers are the best of the bunch. While an in-depth analysis of the league is forthcoming, in short, each of the top teams in the conference was forced to shed talent to get under the salary cap. The Lightning lost Ondrej Palat to the Devils in free agency and Ryan McDonagh to the Predators in a trade; the Hurricanes were unable to re-sign either Trocheck or Nino Niederreiter; the Panthers surrendered Jonathan Huberdeau, their top scoring forward last season, to acquire Matthew Tkachuk; the Penguins couldn't afford to keep Ivan Rodrigues, who signed with the Avalanche; and the Maple Leafs opted to go with a goalie that hasn't had a good season since his cup years in Pittsburgh half a decade ago.

By contrast, the Rangers have depth at virtually every position and the elite goaltending to go on another extended playoff run. Last October, I said they were a year or two away from the Holy Grail. I've seen nothing over the last twelve months that would change that assessment. 



Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Here's How the NHL Can Fix Its LTIR Embarrassment


By now it's become something of a punch line within the ranks of NHL front office executives. Need more cap space? Simple, just put one of your players on long-term injured reserve. Problem solved.

It worked so well for the Tampa Bay Lightning that they tried it twice. At the start of the 2020-21 season, GM Julien BriseBois placed Nikita Kucherov and his $9.5 million cap hit on LTIR for the entire regular season, thus allowing the Lightning to be under the salary cap.  But once the postseason began, Kucherov made a remarkable recovery. I don't know what's in the water down in Tampa, but ole Kuch led his team in scoring with 32 points in 23 playoff games.

During the ensuing offseason, BriseBois decided he couldn't count on one of his players coming down with a strong case of injuritis so he traded Tyler Johnson and his $5 million cap hit to the Chicago Blackhawks for Brent Seabrook, who, by the way, hasn't played an NHL game since midway thru the 2019-20 season and whose career, for all intents and purposes, is likely over. Seabrook, in case you're wondering, carries a cap hit of $6.875 million, all of which goes on, you guessed it, LTIR.

Now you know why BriseBois is the best GM in the league, as far as I'm concerned. No other executive manipulates the system as brilliantly as he does, all with the tacit approval of the suits who work at 1185 Sixth Avenue, New York, NY. 

Well, almost no one. Kelly McCrimmon of the Vegas Golden Knights borrowed a page out of BriseBois's playbook over the summer when he traded Evgeni Dadonov and his $5 million cap hit to the Montreal Canadiens for Shea Weber. Like Seabrook, Weber hasn't played in at least a year, which means his entire $7.85 million cap hit goes on LTIR. When the Golden Knights traded for Jack Eichel last season, Eichel was on LTIR. In order to activate him, McCrimmon was forced to move Mark Stone to LTIR. Talk about musical chairs.

If this charade weren't so embarrassing, it would be comical. The NHL, in its infinite lunacy, has not only failed to close a loophole in its LTIR policy; it is giving a wink and a nod to teams that are ostensibly gaming the system in order to get a leg up on their rivals. As for the damage such ambivalence is causing to the league's reputation, well we are, after all, talking about the NHL: the only professional sport in North America that still tolerates fighting and allows its top stars to be mauled, all to appease a fanbase that looks upon the Broadstreet Bullies as the Golden Era of Hockey.

If the NHL really wanted to fix its LTIR embarrassment, these are the steps I would immediately consider implementing.

1. The LTIR would be eliminated altogether. In its place, each team would be allowed to carry a reserve fund of $10 million to be used to replace players who sustain season-ending injuries. If, for example, the Rangers were to lose the services of Artemi Panarin for the season, Chris Drury would have upwards of $10 million to spend on a replacement without having to worry about going over the salary cap.

Teams would also be permitted to use part of that reserve fund to acquire players they feel would improve their team. However, for every dollar spent on one of those players, two dollars would be subtracted from the fund. For instance, if the Rangers wanted to acquire Patrick Kane from the Chicago Blackhawks at 50 percent retention, they would use up the entire $10 million reserve fund plus be on the hook for the remaining $250,000. They also would be shit out of luck if one of their players went down for the season.

See how this works? The league gives each team the same amount of money to work with and says to them, use this money as you see fit. Those who know how to spend their money responsibly will flourish; those who don't will suffer. But the shenanigans will finally be over.

Since I don't for a minute believe Gary Bettman and the Board of Governors will ever agree to this, let's proceed to the following steps.

2. Any player that goes on LTIR during the season must be activated at least five games PRIOR to end of the regular season in order to be eligible for the postseason. If a team does not have sufficient cap space to accommodate the return of said player than it must create that space by moving another player or players off its active roster. If the salary cap is $83.5 million during the regular season, it's $83.5 million during the playoffs. In other words, the Kucherov maneuver is now kaput.

3. A player who is on LTIR cannot be traded either during or after the season. In order to be traded, that player must be eligible to play the moment the trade is consummated. Trading contracts simply to get cap relief will no longer be allowed.

4. To avoid any ambiguity as to what constitutes eligibility, the player in question must have played in at least five games during the regular season and be examined by a league physician prior to the trade. He also cannot be placed on LTIR immediately upon his acquisition. In other words, no more "Gee, he was healthy when he got here and now, look at him, he can't play" horse shit. Either you're eligible to play or you're not.

5. Teams that violate this new league policy will be subject to any or all of the following: 

  • The full amount of the cap hit will be subtracted from the team's salary cap the following season.
  • The team will lose the services of said player for the entirety of the playoffs.
  • The team will forfeit a draft pick or picks to be determined by the Commissioner's office.

Wow, that's pretty strict. You bet your ass it's strict. And it will send a message loud and clear to every general manager throughout the league. If you can't manage your cap, get a new job.

I submit that the vast majority of teams will have no problem complying. Teams like Tampa Bay and particularly Vegas, who are still over the cap and have only 16 players on the active roster, are going to have to rethink how they conduct their business.

The bottom line is that this has become an eyesore that the NHL can no longer afford to ignore. The powers that be have got to put an end to it.


Friday, July 15, 2022

Drury Knocks It Out of the Park



Going into Wednesday afternoon, Chris Drury knew two things: 1. Andrew Copp was likely going to sign a multi-year deal with the Detroit Red Wings; and 2. Evgeni Malkin had agreed to a four year extension to remain with the Pittsburgh Penguins. The latter was significant because it meant that Drury's number one target in this year's free agent draft, Vincent Trocheck, was his for the taking, provided he could come to the table with an acceptable offer.

With only about $10 million in available cap space and knowing he still had to re-sign Kaapo Kakko and find a backup goaltender and a fourth-line center, the Rangers President and GM rolled up his sleeves and went to work. In the end, the two sides reached an agreement: $5.625 million x 7 years. While the term was longer than Drury would've preferred to go, it was necessary to keep the dollar amount manageable. Anything above $6 million and Drury would likely have walked away and gone with Filip Chytil as his 2C next season.

Does Trocheck make the Rangers a better team? In a word, yes. Unlike Ryan Strome and Copp, Trocheck is one of the better two-way centers in the league. He's good in all three zones, is quick on the puck, isn't afraid to park himself in front of the net and - this is crucial - wins face-offs; 52.1 percent over his career. The one knock on him is that he's not a particularly gifted scorer, but then he's never played with someone as talented as Artemi Panarin before.

It cannot be overstated the impact Panarin can have on a player's stats. For instance, before his arrival in New York, Ryan Strome averaged 35 points per season. Since he was paired with Panarin three years ago, his season average has gone up to 54 points, and one of those seasons (2020-21) was shortened by the pandemic. During his brief stint with the Blueshirts, Andrew Copp scored 18 points in 16 regular season games. Before that, he was a half a point per game player at best. Having a world-class playmaker on your line has its advantages. Now those advantages will be Trocheck's to enjoy.

But while the Trocheck signing was significant, Drury wasn't done, not by a long shot. He found someone to take Patrik Nemeth's contract off his hands. When the Rangers failed to exercise their option to buy out the defenseman the day before, the feeling was that maybe he could be sent to Hartford, thus giving the team a modicum of cap relief. Instead, Drury pawned Nemeth off on the Arizona Coyotes. The price? A 2025 second-rounder and a future conditional pick. He even managed to swindle the Yotes out of a prospect to complete the deal: Ty Emberson, K'Andre Miller's defense partner from his Wisconsin days.

Just like that, $2.5 million in cap space was freed up; cap space that Drury then used to sign backup goalie Jaroslav Halak ($1.5m x 1) and center Ryan Carpenter ($750k x 1). For shits and giggles he even signed Pens third-string goalie Louie Domingue - yeah, that Louis Domingue - to fill out the Hartford roster. Assuming Kakko re-ups for $2.3 million, and assuming the Rangers elect to go with only 21 players on their roster, they would have about $1.5 million in cap space when all is said and done. And that will be important should Drury wish to add a player at the trade deadline.

I will be compiling a list of winners and losers in this year's free agency class. Suffice to say, the Rangers, thanks to Chris Drury, will be among the winners.

Friday, February 11, 2022

NHL Power Rankings: Evaluating the Top Eight Teams in Each Conference


Now that we're past the halfway point in the NHL season, it's time to re-evaluate my power rankings for the sixteen best teams in the NHL. 

Since my initial season-opening projections, there've been a few surprises; the biggest being the collapse of the Islanders, who I picked to win the Stanley Cup this year, and who were only five wins away from doing just that last year. Read my thoughts on what went wrong. Whether they will be sellers at the trade deadline remains to be seen.

Unlike October, when I predicted who the top three teams in each division would be, plus the wild cards, this time around, I've decided to rate the top eight teams in each conference, followed who I believe will win the Cup.

My criteria for evaluating each team comes down to the following: won/loss record, goals for and against, special teams, 5v5 play, goaltending and, finally, my gut instincts. That last one isn't always as trustworthy as I would like it to be.

As always, take these predictions with a grain or two or three of salt.

Eastern Conference:

1. Carolina Hurricanes: From top to bottom, the most balanced team in the NHL. Their forwards check with a reckless abandon and their defense, while lacking the pizazz of an Adam Fox or Cale Makar, has allowed the second fewest goals in the league. Imagine having to win four out of seven games in a playoff series against this team. I pity whoever draws the short straw in the wild card race.

2. Tampa Bay Lightning: They lost their entire third line during the offseason and didn't miss a beat. Credit GM Julien BrisBois for retooling on the fly. No one navigates the salary cap better. They can skate and they can check, and they have the number one goalie in all of hockey. It wouldn't shock me one bit if they won it all again.

3. Pittsburgh Penguins: Despite losing four straight going into the all-star break, they've been one of the most consistent teams this season, and they've managed to do it with Sidney Crosby missing a dozen games and Evgeni Malkin missing more than 30. Coach Mike Sullivan deserves a lot of credit. Don't sleep on them.

4. Florida Panthers: A world-class offense reminiscent of the great Edmonton Oilers teams of the '80s, and yet for all their prowess with the puck, they can be sloppy in their own end, which could bite them in the postseason. They remind me of the '92 Rangers: loaded up front, but soft.

5. New York Rangers: They have four of the top twenty scorers in the league, their special teams have been in the top ten all season long, and goalie Igor Shesterkin has stolen at least a half dozen games for them. Still, their 5v5 play ranks near the bottom, and unless it's addressed via a trade, it could undermine their playoff prospects.

6. Toronto Maple Leafs: Their regular season successes have been consistently met by epic collapses in the postseason. On paper, they look like world beaters, but until they prove they can win when it counts, I will remain a skeptic.

7. Washington Capitals: Ever since they won the Cup in 2018, they've consistently underperformed in the playoffs. And I've seen nothing this season that makes me believe a repeat performance isn't in the offing. They're showing their age and their goaltending is suspect.

8. Boston Bruins: They've been looking for a number two center ever since David Krejci retired, going so far as to put a winger between Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak. And now that Tuukka Rask has called it a career, it's hard to see this team making a serious run in the postseason.

Western Conference:

1. Colorado Avalanche: Watching this team play is like watching a tsunami come ashore. Just when you're done with the first wave, the second wave hits you. How dangerous are they? Their best forward, Nazem Kadri, happens to be their number two center. With Cale Makar having a Norris trophy-type season, they might be unstoppable in the playoffs.

2. Vegas Golden Knights: Jack Eichel is expected to make his season debut in a couple of weeks. The rest of their forward contingent is the perfect blend of skill and grit. They have the goaltending and the depth to make a deep run in the postseason. The only thing standing in their way might be the Avs.

3. Calgary Flames: Jacob Markstrom leads the NHL with eight shutouts, and their coach, Darryl Sutter, has twice before piloted a team to a Stanley Cup championship. It's worth noting that both times the LA Kings won, they were not the best team in the league. Food for thought.

4. Minnesota Wild: I'll be honest, I totally missed this team. The third best offense in the conference and a very stingy defense makes them a dangerous opponent in the playoffs. And I have a soft spot for Mats Zuccarello. The ex-Ranger is having a career year and I'd like to see him hoist the Cup.

5. Nashville Predators: They have the comeback player of the year in Matt Duchene and an all-star goalie in Juuse Saros. I'm not sure they have enough depth to go far in the postseason but their hard-nosed style of play will be difficult for opponents to overcome.

6. St. Louis Blues: Three years removed from a Stanley Cup, this team has been quietly flying under the radar. They've retooled and they could shock someone.

7. Los Angeles Kings: Talk about rebuilds. The Kings weren't supposed to be competing for a playoff spot. Yet, here they are. Jonathan Quick is still solid in net and Anze Kopitar, at 34, is the leading scorer. They'll probably exit early but this is a team moving in the right direction.

8. Edmonton Oilers: As of this writing, the Oilers are 5th in the Pacific Division, six points out of a playoff spot. It's unfathomable that a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Drasaitl could miss the postseason, and that's why I'm predicting that won't happen. Somehow, someway, this team will find a way to sneak in. But poor goaltending and a lack of grit will prove to be their undoing. 

Cup finals: Colorado Avalanche over the Carolina Hurricanes, 4-3.

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

The Pros and Cons of Rangers Trading for J.T. Miller


Before I get to J.T. Miller, a word on the new Covid-19 protocols that the NHL and the NHL Players' association jointly announced. Beginning February 3, the league will no longer test fully vaccinated, asymptomatic players. Only players who develop symptoms will be tested, and if positive, will be isolated. The lone exception will be teams that travel across the border to Canada. In those instances, the protocols will be dictated by the "relevant health authorities." In other words, for teams in the lower 48, the NHL will adopt the NFL protocols; for teams in Canada, the Provinces will run the show.

It's a welcome sign that this league, which was forced to postpone dozens of games over the last six weeks, has finally admitted what the medical experts have been saying for a couple of months now: that while Covid-19 isn't going anywhere, for the vast majority of people who are fully vaccinated, the health risk is relatively small. In the end, pragmatism won out. Good for them, and good for the fans who will now be able to see their teams play at or near full capacity.

Now onto the main topic. Frank Seravalli of Daily Face-off is reporting that the Rangers are one of the teams interested in trading for the services of the Vancouver Canucks' center. 

Let's assume for the moment that Seravalli is right and Chris Drury is serious about re-acquiring the player his predecessor Jeff Gorton sent packing in 2017, along with Ryan McDonagh, in what is now considered one of the franchise's most lopsided trades. 

It would signal two things: 1. After returning home from a 3-2 road trip that saw them take over first place in the Metropolitan division with 54 points, Drury believes this team has a legitimate shot at a deep run in the postseason; and 2. Contract negotiations with Ryan Strome's agent don't appear to be going well. If I had to guess, I'd say it's mostly the latter that is driving this bus.

With Strome scheduled to become a UFA after the season, it's logical to assume he is seeking a rather long and substantial payday, say six years at around $7 million AAV. He's currently making $4.5 million. Given the cap constraints the Rangers will be under for the foreseeable future, such a contract would be too rich for Drury's blood. So unless he can talk Strome's agent down to a more mutually beneficial number, say four years at closer to $5.75M AAV, Drury's hands will be tied.

Hence the Miller speculation.

Of course, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to learn that Drury is floating the idea of a possible class reunion with Miller to force Strome's agent to come to the table. I can't be the only one who thinks it wasn't a coincidence that within 24 hours after Larry Brooks of The New York Post reported last October that the Rangers would only be interested in trading for Jack Eichel if they believed they couldn't re-sign Mika Zibanejad that the two sides miraculously came to an agreement on a contract extension. The more I see of Drury, the more impressed I become with him.

So, what are the pros and cons of J.T. Miller coming back to the organization that drafted him?

The pros:

1. Since his departure from Broadway, Miller has developed into one of the better pivotmen in the NHL, averaging just under a point a game over the last three seasons. With 38 points in 38 games, he is currently the leading scorer on the Canucks this year. As a Ranger, he would be tied with Artemi Panarin for second in team scoring, right behind Adam Fox, who has 39.

2. In addition to his offense, Miller is exceptional on draws. At 53.5 percent, he would be tops on the Rangers. For a team that has struggled winning face-offs over the last few years, this would be like manna from heaven.

3. Miller has one of the best team-friendly contracts in the league at $5.25 million AAV and is signed thru 2023. Re-acquiring him would give Drury the financial flexibility he needs to retain Kaapo Kakko, who is scheduled to become an RFA after the season. It also doesn't hamstring him if he wants to acquire a rental like Reilly Smith from the Vegas Golden Knights. Imagine a top line of Chris Kreider, Zibanaejad and Smith and a second line of Panarin, Miller and Strome, who I assume would shift to right wing. Now that would be a helluva one-two punch.

The cons:

1. Strome is gone. I've crunched the numbers over and over and there's no way the Rangers can afford to keep both Miller and Strome next season. Even if they decide to let Kakko walk - a bad idea - and they find someone to take Patrik Nemeth off their hands, they still don't have the room for both players. With the salary cap scheduled to increase by only one million to $82.5 in 2022-23 - and that's assuming the Omicron variant doesn't impact the league's bottom line further - a lot of teams are going to be faced with some tough choices next season, the Rangers no exception. Face it, this pandemic has really fucked things up royally.

2. The chemistry on the team could suffer. So far this season, the Rangers have been one of the most resilient teams in the NHL. They continue to defy the analytics gods who insist they aren't as good as their record suggests. They currently have the third-best penalty kill percentage in the league and their power play has been in the top ten for most of the season. They also boast one of the best goaltenders in Igor Shesterkin. His acrobatics in net have allowed them to win games they had no business winning. Trading for Miller could upset the apple cart, so to speak. There's no way of telling how Panarin would react knowing that Strome's days with the team are numbered. Drury would be taking a huge gamble potentially pissing off his top winger.

3. Despite Miller's team-friendly contract, Drury would only be kicking the can down the road an additional year. Come the '23 season, he'd be faced with the same dilemma he's facing now: a pending UFA he can't afford to re-sign. With no one in the system capable of stepping in - and let's face it, Morgan Barron is not the answer - Drury would have the daunting task of trying to find someone who can put up numbers comparable to either Strome or Miller, and who doesn't cost a king's ransom. Good luck with that.

So why Miller and not someone like Tomas Hertl of the San Jose Sharks? As a UFA, Hertl would be the ideal rental and Drury could land him without sacrificing any of his valuable assets. Then there's Claude Giroux. With the Philadelphia Flyers sinking faster than the Lusitania, a second-rounder and a couple of prospects might do the trick.

A rental, of course, assumes Drury can re-sign Strome. All things being equal, he'd probably prefer to do that. But if Strome's agent plays hardball, Drury may have no other option than to pull the trigger on Miller. Getting him won't be cheap. Vancouver will demand at the very least a first round pick, a young center who can develop - Filip Chytil makes sense - and a top prospect - anyone but Braden Schneider, Will Cuylle or Brennan Othmann.

Sunday, December 19, 2021

How To Save the NHL Season



According to ESPN, there are currently 70 NHL players - roughly 10 percent of the league - who are in Covid protocol. Given the way the new Omicron variant is spreading throughout both the U.S. and Canada, that number is expected to rise, if not double, within the next few days.

Breakout infections have forced the Calgary Flames, Nashville Predators, Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche and Florida Panthers to shutdown operations until after Christmas. There have been calls for a league-wide pause through the holidays. In some Canadian cities, attendance at arenas has been restricted to 50 percent capacity. Montreal went so far as to bar all fans from the Bell Centre during a recent game between the Canadiens and the Flyers.

In response to the situation, the league, in conjunction with the Player's Association, agreed to the following changes in its Covid protocol:
  • All players will be subjected to daily testing.
  • Masks will be worn by all players, coaches and trainers at club facilities.
  • While on the road, social distancing must be maintained during team meals.
  • There will be no indoor eating or drinking in restaurants or bars open to the public.
While all these measures are laudable, they are unlikely to be successful. Indeed, daily testing will all but guarantee that the number of positive results will rise precipitously. And as for a league-wide pause, this is the worst time of year to do something like that. Sending 700 players home for the holidays to mingle with family and friends would be like pouring lighter fluid on a fire.

So what should Gary Bettman, et al do?

Fortunately, the NHL doesn't have to look very far. The NFL has already provided them, and the NBA, with a template. Faced with their own outbreaks that have decimated teams and forced the postponement of several games this weekend, league officials came up with a solution they believe will save the season and the playoffs.
  • All unvaccinated players will continue to get tested daily, and if they test positive will be quarantined.
  • Vaccinated players who are symptomatic will be isolated and tested immediately, and if they test positive will be quarantined.
  • Vaccinated players who are asymptomatic will not undergo mandatory testing.
  • High-risk players may opt out of the rest of the season, including the playoffs.
I would also add the following to this list:
  • The Beijing Olympics are off as far as player participation is concerned, and the All-star game will be canceled. The league will use the three weeks in February to make-up the games that were postponed.
  • All players and team personnel who are eligible to receive booster shots will be required to get them.
Now before you accuse me of being part of the anti-vaxxer mob, let me just say up front that the reason we are in this predicament is because roughly one third of the country has refused to do the right thing. The simple truth is that had every single person who was able to get vaccinated done so, we'd be close to, if not at, herd immunity, and we would not now be seeing the rash of Covid infections that have forced every professional sports league to postpone games. When historians sit down to write this chapter in American history, there will be a lot of head scratching and references to Ripley's Believe It or Not.

But here's the thing: the overwhelming majority of players in pro sports are fully vaccinated; in the NHL, only one player - Tyler Bertuzzi - is unvaccinated. The majority of players who have tested positive are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. One player on the Maple Leafs reported having fever, chills and body aches. Compared to the population at large, the NHL is a virtual panacea. While eliminating mandatory testing would no doubt spread the virus even more than it is currently spreading, there are steps the league can take - such as mandatory masks and social distancing - to mitigate the risk to the players.

I seriously don't see anyway that sports as we know it can continue to move forward unless a sense of pragmatism is adopted. Daily testing and pausing the schedule simply will not cut it. Each variant that comes along appears to be more transmissible than the previous one, and while the jury's still out as to whether Omicron leads to milder or worse illness, what we do know is this: fully vaccinated people with booster shots fare much better.

Bottom line: protect the players as much as possible, but let them play. If the league needs to impose additional restrictions in order to protect its staff and the fans, it can do so while not compromising the integrity of the games. To require a team to play with as much as one third of its roster in Covid protocol is simply unacceptable, especially when, as stated above, the majority of those players are asymptomatic. And it's a slap in the face to the loyal fans who pay good money to attend the games.


P.S., the NHL announced on Sunday that all games involving cross-border travel have been suspended until after the Christmas break, including Wednesday's game between the Rangers and Canadiens at the Garden.


Friday, October 15, 2021

Did the Rangers Wait Too Long to Re-Sign Adam Fox?



By now you've heard that the Boston Bruins have re-signed their all-star defenseman Charlie McAvoy to an eight-year, $76 million dollar contract extension beginning in 2022-23. For those who didn't bring their calculators with them, that's $9.5 million per year. Or, as we say in New York, "a fuckin' lotta dough."

Just where the Bruins, who are $1.2 million under the cap this season, intend to get that "dough" remains a mystery, especially since Patrice Bergeron, their all-star center, is currently making $6.875 and will be a UFA next summer. But that's their problem.

They say timing is everything. Lost in all the hoopla of the Rangers signing Mika Zibanejad to an eight year, $8.5 million AAV contract is the fact that they have a plethora of pending contracts that will have to be either re-upped or moved over the next couple of seasons. And the biggest of those is Adam Fox, who is in the last year of an entry level contract worth $925,000 per.

With Cale Makar re-signing in Colorado for $9 million per over the summer, the market for defensemen who can score is pretty much set. By waiting as long as they did, the Rangers may have boxed themselves into a corner with their Norris-trophy winner. After the Zibanejad signing, there was some optimism that Chris Drury might be able to persuade Fox to agree to a similar, team-friendly contract. The McAvoy signing pretty much tosses that scenario out the window. At this point, Drury will be lucky if he can get Fox to accept $9 million per. Shit, if Seth Jones is worth $9.5 million, how much is Fox worth?

Welcome to life in the flat salary cap era, or as it's better known in the NHL, the Hunger Games. The Rangers, who for the last three seasons have "enjoyed" the benefits of being among the youngest teams in the league, are about to find out what happens when that youth grows up. In addition to Fox, Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafreniere and K'Andre Miller will all see their ELCs expire over the next two years, and barring something unforeseen, all will be due substantial pay raises. Maybe Vitali Kravtsov did them a solid by going AWOL after all. If they can move him for a 2nd rounder or a serviceable forward with a reasonable cap hit, that'll be one less headache for Drury to deal with next summer.

But getting back to Fox, did you see the way he played Thursday night? It was as if the puck was glued to his stick. If Wayne Gretzky had been a defenseman instead of a center, he would've looked just like Fox. Drury is going to have to bite the bullet here. There are some contracts you don't fuck around with. If he's this good at 23, imagine what he's going to look like two or three years from now. 

Get him signed. Get him signed now! If it takes $9.5 mill per to get it done, then that's what it takes. Fuck it, if it takes $10 mill, do it. In five years, it'll be a bargain. Think about it: right now, Artemi Panarin is the best player on this team. Who knows, in a couple of seasons, Fox might supplant him. He's that good.

I know there are risks involved in assembling a top heavy roster. Just ask the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Edmonton Oilers. Both teams have a substantial portion of their salary cap tied up in just a few players. And as a result, both have had a hard time acquiring the depth needed to make a serious run at the Cup. I won't lie to you, that fate could await the Rangers.

But the greater risk, in my opinion, would be letting a generational player like Fox walk because you want the "freedom" to pursue lesser players that, and let's be honest, can be had in any given off season. Yes, the Tampa Bay Lightning would not have won either of their two Stanley Cups if they didn't have foot soldiers like Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman in the trenches; but they would never have gotten close if they didn't have world-class talent like Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. You need both types of players to win a championship these days.

Adam Fox is the best defenseman the Rangers have had since the days of Brian Leetch. Hell, he might even be better. Chris Drury must make every effort to ensure he never plays for another organization.


Sunday, October 10, 2021

Analyzing the 2021-22 Rangers



One of the most consequential seasons in the history of the New York Rangers begins this Wednesday in Washington against the Capitals. I'm not being hyperbolic here. After four years of rebuilding, this franchise is at a crossroads. Management can say all they want that the postseason is not a requirement. Tell that to James Dolan. Trust me, if this team doesn't make the playoffs this season, more heads will roll.

So let's take a look at the moves Chris Drury made during the offseason and whether or not they will make a difference.

Gerard Gallant: If the preseason is any indicator, Galant's simple, low-key coaching style appears to be the perfect antidote for the overly hands-on approach of David Quinn, who for all his teaching acumen, was never quite able to win over the veterans on the team. The players seem more relaxed and cohesive as a unit. There's a sense of unity and camaraderie that simply was not there during Quinn's tenure. Whether he can get players like Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin to play the kind of north-south style of hockey that physical teams like the Islanders and Bruins employ remains to be seen.

Pavel Buchnevich: It's obvious from the Tweets I've been reading that most people still don't understand why he had to go. Ostensibly, the trade was a salary dump. Period. Thanks to the flat cap, the Ranges couldn't afford to keep the top-six winger anymore. Just like the Vegas Golden Knights couldn't afford to keep Marc-Andre Fleury. The reality is the worst pandemic in a century forced teams into making moves they would otherwise have never made. That Drury was able to get a physical winger like Sammy Blais, who has looked impressive in the preseason, in return was fortunate.

Barclay Goodrow: It cannot be overstated that this team lacked a spine the last few years. And while Goodrow is no Clarke Gillies, he ain't Nick Futiu either. In addition to being strong in the corners, he can play some center where his face-off ability will come in handy on a team that sorely lacks that skillset. If Gallant chooses to play him with Blais, the Rangers will have a formidable checking unit that can drive opponents up the wall. Well worth the money.

Patrik Nemeth and Jarred Tinordi: Apart from Jacob Trouba, there wasn't a single defenseman on this team who was capable of clearing the slot. Ryan Lindgren is a solid, stay-at-home D but lacks the size of Nemeth and Tinordi. Nemeth is the key here. He's a Swede who will likely be paired with fellow countryman Nils Lundkvist, the young phenom who had a solid preseason. This is the deepest and most balanced backline the franchise has had in years. Solid signings.

Ryan Reaves: I'll admit I was dubious when I heard about the acquisition. Frankly, I would've gone after Nick Ritchie, who at 230 pounds at least scored 15 goals for the Bruins last year. But Reaves has made a positive impact on this team so far. Even if you believe the whole Tom Wilson incident was overblown, there's no denying what his presence on the ice will mean to a team that got manhandled on a consistent basis last season. If he scores 8 goals this year, he'll be worth what Drury paid for him.

Mika Zibanejad: Just as I was sitting down to write this piece, news broke that the Rangers re-signed Zibanejad to an eight-year extension at $8.5 million AAV with a full no move clause. The timing is odd, given that less than 24 hours earlier, Larry Brooks of the New York Post reported that the only way the Rangers would be interested in trading for Jack Eichel is if the Sabres retained a substantial portion of his contract, or - and this is crucial - "they know they won't be able to sign No. 93 to a contract extension." How much you wanna bet Drury planted that story to let Zibanejad's agent know he was willing to let Mika walk if the salary demands weren't reasonable?

Regardless of how it went down, this is a win for both sides. The Rangers lock up their number one center - albeit for a longer term than they would've preferred - at a cap hit they can live with; and Zibanejad doesn't have the distraction of not having a contract hanging over his head. Hopefully, this puts to bed all the Eichel trade talk, though knowing the Twitter crowd, I doubt it. Drury can now use the savings from the Zibanejad contract to re-sign Adam Fox, who should come in at around a cool $9 mill per for eight years.

So after all the moves, is this Rangers team better than last year's? In a word, yes. They're tougher, deeper, and if the kids - Alexis Lafreniere, Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko - take the next step, they could be one of the more exciting teams in the NHL. All three had a strong showing against the Islanders in the preseason finale with Chytil scoring a hat trick. Gallant should consider putting them together to form a solid second line. If he has the balls to do it, he can have Zibanejad center a super line of Panarin on the left and Vitali Kravtsov on the right. Ryan Strome can then center the third line of Chris Kreider on the left and Julian Gauthier on the right. And bringing up the rear would be Goodrow centering Morgan Barron on the left and Blais on the right. Reaves and Kevin Rooney would fill out the forwards.

Now for the sixty-four thousand dollar question. Will they make the playoffs? Also yes. Zibanejad and Panarin are poised to have exceptional seasons with the latter expected to be in the running for the Hart trophy. Fox will continue to improve on his Norris-trophy winning campaign, and Trouba - who most expect to be name captain by the season opener - might be one of the best defensemen in the league. If Igor Shesterkin develops into the goaltender the organization thinks he is, I like this team's prospects.

No they will not win the Cup, but they could actually win a series depending on where they finish and who they meet. It pains me to admit this, but barring a serious injury, the Islanders are the odds-on favorite to at least get to the finals. They have the best blend of talent and grit in the league and with the Tampa Bay Lightning losing four valuable players during the offseason, I don't see anyone else in the conference capable of beating them in a seven-game series.

The bottom line is this: Rangers' fans will finally have something to cheer about this season. The hard work of Jeff Gorton and his successor Chris Drury will finally pay dividends. They're closer than most people think to the Holy Grail, and perhaps in a year or two, they'll drink from it.

Sunday, June 27, 2021

True Grit


In the end, the Islanders didn't have quite enough to pull off the upset of the decade. The Tampa Bay Lightning were simply too much for them to overcome. Credit Barry Trotz for getting this team - a team which on paper didn't belong on the same ice with the Lightning - as far as it did. Full disclosure, I had them losing to the Boston Bruins in the second round. Indeed, the Lightning looked more like those legendary Islander teams of the '80s than this Islanders team did. Apart from Mat Barzal and Semyon Varlamov, there wasn't one player on this roster who could've cracked that lineup. I know; as a Rangers' fan, I watched them win four consecutive Cups. It was the most painful period of my life.

I hope Chris Drury was watching this series, and I hope he was taking notes. Because this series was a textbook example of what is needed in order for a team to contend in today's NHL. I've been saying this for a while but it bears repeating. Talent alone isn't enough. To win in the postseason, you need grit, and tons of it. 

Question: What do Auston Matthews, Conor McDavid, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin all have in common? Answer: They were all playing golf after the first round of the playoffs because their teams simply weren't tough enough to advance to the quarterfinals. Two years ago, the Lightning ran away with the President's Trophy, posting a record of 62-16-4 and leading the league in scoring with 325 goals. Yet they were swept in the first round by a Columbus Blue Jacket team that checked the hell out of them and limited them to a paltry eight goals in four games. How did the Lightning respond? They added size to their lineup and, lo and behold, the following year they won the Cup. Lesson learned.

Look, I am no fan of the style of play the Islanders and teams like them employ. Truth be told, I miss the good old days when the most talented players in the league were afforded the space they needed to create scoring chances. Back then, you never knew which player might go from one end of the rink to the other and score a dazzling goal that brought the crowd to its feet. Those days are long gone. Blowouts like the one we saw in game five of the Lightning - Isles series have become something of an anomaly. Scores like 3-2, 2-1 and, yes, 1-0 are now the norm.

The sad truth is that even Wayne Gretzky himself would have a hard time scoring today. Yes, he'd still get his points, but he would hardly be called the Great One; more like the Good One. And those Oiler teams that won five Stanley Cups in seven years, might not even have had one if they were forced to play in this league the way it is currently structured. And anyone who thinks that's acceptable should take a gander at the NBA, where the stars rule and the officials do everything in their power to keep it that way. Trust me, a lot of really stupid people in this league are literally running the game into the ground, and they don't seem to give a shit about it. But that's another topic for another day.

As the old saying goes, when in Rome do as the Romans do. You don't have to like the NHL of today, but if you want to succeed in it, you'd better adopt to it. The Islanders may not have had the most talent in the league - they were 20th in goals scored - but they had the heart of a lion, and any opponent that took the ice against them this year was in for the fight of its life. 

I can assure you that had the the Islanders faced off against the 2019 Lightning, the boys from Uniondale would've beaten the pants off them. But with players like Blake Coleman, Pat Maroon, Ross Colton and Barclay Goodrow on the roster, the Bolts outlasted the grittiest team in the NHL. In the final analysis, the Lightning were able to play the Islanders game, but the Islanders were unable to play the Lightning's game, and that was the difference in the series. 

That's why it's imperative that Drury and new head coach Gerard Gallant have the courage to make the changes that are necessary in order to transform this Rangers' team from the jellyfish they are into the warriors they need to be if they ever expect to drink from the Stanley Cup again. The operative question next season will be can Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin adopt their style of play the way Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov were forced to? If so, the Blueshirts have a chance; if not, this rebuild that was started four years ago was all for not and it's back to the drawing board.

You can dismiss the Islanders all you want, but with the exception of the Lightning, no other team in the NHL has been as dominant in the playoffs these past two seasons. The Bruins, the Carolina Hurricanes, the Colorado Avalanche, all were legitimate contenders with imposing lineups, and all failed to make it past the second round. Believe me, this is not a game for the faint of heart; in fact, it's the closest thing North America has to Rugby. You may hate Casey Cizikas, Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck all you want, but know this: Drury would give his eye teeth to have all three on his team. And deep down so would you.

To those who are clamoring for the Rangers to trade for Jack Eichel, you better pray you don't get your wish. Even if he's healthy - and that's a HUGE question mark - he's the last thing this team needs right now: another skater who loves to shoot on the fly. The smart move would be to spend the $10 million Eichel would cost on some wingers who can inflict serious pain on opposing defensemen. They're out there; in fact, it looks very much like Coleman and Goodrow will be available if for no other reason than the Lightning won't be able to afford to keep them. That's what happens when you're in cap hell.

Yep, July will be a busy month for the NHL. For the Rangers, it will be the most consequential month quite possibly in the franchise's history.