In Igor We Trust

What a difference a month makes. In January, the New York Rangers were in the midst of a mid-season slump which saw them go 5-7-2, allowing 47 goals for an average of 3.36 per game. Their number one goaltender Igor Shesterkin was, likewise, in a slump. His save percentage of .863 tied a career low. The optimism that surrounded the team earlier in the year was gone, replaced by a sense of fatalism that Rangers fans know all too well.

But then, as if by Providence, the All-Star Break arrived, and so far in February, the Rangers have gone 7-0-0, surrendering a paltry 15 goals for an average of 2.14 per game. And not coincidentally, Shesterkin's save percentage for the month is an astounding .937.

This is the second year in a row that Shesterkin has shit the bed one month only to miraculously regain his Vezina trophy form the next. Last season he had an identical save percentage of .863 in February before posting save percentages of .932 and .941 over the final two months of the regular season.

While the Rangers have definitely improved their level of play under Peter Laviolette, one thing remains constant: this team will go as far as its goaltending takes them. Two years ago, that was good enough to advance to the Eastern Conference finals. Chris Drury can bring in all the reinforcements he wants at the trade deadline; if Shesterkin isn't Shesterkin, it won't matter.

Witness what happened Tuesday night at the Garden. Fresh off their exhilarating, come-from-behind, 6-5 overtime win against the Islanders Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium, the Rangers played a spirited first two periods against the Dallas Stars, one of the best teams in the Western Conference, carrying a 2-1 lead into the third period. In the third, though, Dallas peppered Shesterkin with 17 shots on goal, many of them high danger chances. And Igor didn't blink. He turned aside all 17 of them. Between the win over the Stars and the shutout over the Calgary Flames last Monday night, Shesterkin stopped 70 of 71 shots he faced.

Over their storied existence, the Rangers have been blessed to have some of the best goalies in NHL history play for them. Dave Kerr, Gump Worsley, Jacques Plante, Eddie Giacomin, John Vanbiesbrouck, Mike Richter, Henrik Lundqvist and now Shesterkin. Sadly, only Kerr (1940) and Richter (1994) succeeded in leading their teams to the Stanley Cup; Giacomin (1972) and Lundqvist (2014) took them only as far as the finals.

The jury is still out on Shesterkin. There are times when no one in the league can touch him with a ten foot goalie stick. Then there are times when you shake your head and wonder what the hell's going on. Two years ago, he outclassed Andrei Vasilevskiy in the first two games of the Easter Conference finals, and had it not been for a couple of questionable coaching decisions by Gerard Gallant, the Rangers might well have gone on to win their second Cup since World War II.

The talent is undeniable. If there's a problem, it resides between his ears. Put succinctly, Shesterkin is a very emotional player, who's prone to ups and downs. Unlike King Henrik, who had ice water in his veins, it doesn't take much to get Igor off his game. One bad goal and it all comes crashing down like a house of cards. I've never seen anything like it. All goalies have bad games; Shesterkin has bad months.

But now that he's rediscovered his game, fans are once again chanting "Igor, Igor," while opponents are cursing him under their breath. Tuesday night it was the Stars turn to curse, and curse they did. Dallas is second in the NHL in goals scored, yet Shesterkin made them look like the Hartford Wolf Pack.

That's the kind of brilliance he's capable of displaying, and it's the kind of brilliance the Rangers are going to need come April. For all their skillset, this is still a team that likes to live on the edge. Without elite-level goaltending they are only slightly better than the team that muddled through the month of January. Jonathan Quick has been a steady and reliable backup, one of the best signings Drury has made in his tenure as GM. But at 38, no one knows if he has the stamina to go four rounds.

In the end, fair or not, it all comes down to Igor. He will either be the Rangers ticket to a deep run in the postseason, or the reason they get booted early.

Rangers Flirting with Disaster

With six games to go in the regular season we know two things: One, barring a complete collapse by the New Jersey Devils and the Carolina Hurricanes - very unlikely - the Rangers will finish in third place in the Metropolitan division; and two, apart from Igor Shesterkin and Jaroslav Halak, this team isn't remotely ready for what promises to be a grueling postseason.

For the seventh time in the last thirteen games, the Rangers got off to a slow start and were forced to come from behind. Below is a list of those games in which they trailed early. I've included the goal deficit and, in parenthesis, what the final outcome was.

3/9    -  @ Canadiens 1-0 (W)

3/11  -  @ Sabres 1-0 (W)

3/12  -  @ Penguins 1-0 (OTL)

3/23  -  @ Hurricanes 1-0 (W)

3/25  -  @ Panthers 2-0 (W)

3/30  -  @ Devils 2-0 (L)

3/31  -  @ Sabres 2-0 (OTL)

As you can see, the problem is getting worse, not better. Over the last three games, the deficit has grown from one goal to two goals. And it was only due to the herculean efforts of Shesterkin and Halak that the deficit wasn't greater. And, yes, I know they won four of those games. That's not the point. The point is this team is too talented to be getting off to these kinds of starts.

Why does it matter how big the deficit is? Because overcoming a one-goal deficit is one thing; overcoming a multi-goal deficit is quite another, especially in the playoffs. The two opponents the Rangers are likely to face in the first round - the Hurricanes and the Devils - defend very well with the lead. Carolina, in particular, is among the best in the league at it. Be honest for a moment. You think the Rangers win in Raleigh if the Canes go up two goals? Me neither.

This is no longer an anomaly; it's become an alarming trend, and it's one that must be corrected soon. Shesterkin might be able to steal one or two games in a best of seven series, but there's no way in hell he steals four. And the way this team has been playing of late that is precisely what they'd be asking him to do. The last time a goaltender won four rounds all by himself was - wait for it - NEVER! Not even the great Andrei Vasilevski had to do that for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Elite goaltending puts you in a position to win the close games. Shesterkin did that for the Rangers last year in the playoffs. On numerous occasions he was asked to come up with critical saves when the score was tied or his team was ahead. For instance, after the Rangers went up 2-0 on a power play goal against the Hurricanes in game seven, Igor robbed Teuvo Teravainen point blank to keep Carolina off the board.

The difference between playing with a lead and playing from behind is huge. Teams that play with the lead typically expend less energy because they're not chasing the puck while teams that are playing from behind are forced to take more and more chances in order to draw even. In that very same game seven against Carolina last year, once the score got to be 3-0 Rangers, the Hurricanes had no choice but to open it up. And once they did that, the Blueshirts turned a close game into a rout.

Attempts to shrug this off as simply an example of a team that is just waiting for the playoffs to begin won't cut it. Going into New Jersey, the Rangers were two points out of second place. They had every incentive to win the game. The Devils were coming off a disheartening loss to the Islanders at UBS, while the Rangers had just drubbed the Columbus Blue Jackets 6-2 at MSG. The stars were all in alignment. For the first time since the start of the season, they had control of their own destiny. All they had to do was put in a solid 60 minute effort. Instead, they slept-walked through the first period and the Devils jumped out to a 2-0 lead. The Rangers were the better team over the last two periods, but they weren't able to overcome their woeful start.

Now imagine if instead of a regular season loss, that had been game seven of the first round. And don't kid yourself; it very well could be. Contrary to what I've been reading on Twitter, there's no magic switch that teams turn on once the postseason starts. You're either ready to go or you're not. If you recall, last year against the Pens, the Rangers had two of their worst performances of the season in games three and four in Pittsburgh and fell behind 3-1 in the series. Thankfully, the Blueshirts were playing a flawed team with a third-string goalie in net and they were able to come back and win. They will not be so fortunate this time around. If they play like they have of late, they will be hitting golf balls instead of hoisting the Cup this spring.

If you think I'm overreacting, consider this: last night in Cleveland, the Knicks, minus Julius Randle, beat the Cavaliers by 14 points; meanwhile in Buffalo, the Rangers, with an all-star cast, lost in OT to a Sabres team that was without Tage Thompson. 

If it's true that success is 10 percent inspiration and 90 percent perspiration, it would behoove the Rangers to start breaking a sweat before it's too late. Perhaps Gerard Gallant, who was verbally "pissed" after the loss in Buffalo, can start throwing helmets in the locker room.

Hey, it worked once before, didn't it?

We Need to Talk About Igor Shesterkin

As a rule, I'm not one to overreact. Being in sales for a quarter century has taught me many things. Chief among them is that things are never as bad or as good as they seem. The truth lies somewhere in between.

Of course, in the Twitterverse, overreaction isn't just par for the course, it's a prerequisite for membership. Seriously, if I had a dollar for every time a Rangers fan lost his shit over Gerard Gallant juggling his lines, or Jacob Trouba taking a stupid penalty, or Artemi Panarin having another one of his ill-advised cross-ice passes intercepted, my wife and I would have enough money for a one-week stay at the Halekulani in Waikiki. Referring to Twitter as a social media platform is the very definition of an oxymoron.

That being said, we need to talk about Igor Shesterkin. Last season's Vezina trophy winner is clearly in a slump. His save percentage in February is an ominous .865. To put that in perspective, in all of 2022-23, the lowest save percentage he posted was .916 in March. In fact, if we're truly being honest here, Igor is having an off year compared to what he did last season. Let's break it down, shall we?

Season 2021-22 2022-23 Mo. GAA / SV % GAA / SV % Oct   1.70 / .947 2.55 / .913 Nov 2.67 / .920 2.60 / .912 Dec 2.11 / .929 2.14 / .927 Jan 1.86 / .947 2.62 / .916 Feb 1.31 / .959 3.54 / .865 Mar 2.68 / .916 Apr 1.90 / .930 Average 2.07 / .935 2.59 / .912

The numbers don't lie. As I wrote back in November, Shesterkin "just hasn't lived up to his billing." The incredible saves he was famous for making last season have now become the questionable goals he's allowing this season. Monday night against the Winnipeg Jets he was outclassed by Connor Hellebuyck, who turned away 50 of 51 shots, while Igor gave up four goals on only 21 shots, three of which should've been stopped. Against the Edmonton Oilers, he surrendered four first-period goals. It was obvious he was having trouble picking up the puck. The Rangers eventually came from behind to win the game in the shootout. And against the Vancouver Canucks, he got beat on what looked like an innocuous third-period shot that turned what should've been an easy win into a nail biter.

The fact is Shesterkin has had too many games like that; games when he failed to come up with the one clutch save his teammates needed him to make. It's not that he's been terrible; it's just that he hasn't been the Igor we all know and love. And for a team that gives up a lot of high-danger scoring chances, that's a problem. Last season, the Rangers advanced to the Eastern Conference finals primarily due to Shesterkin's brilliance in net. If this month's Shesterkin shows up in the playoffs, the Rangers will be lucky to win one game, much less two rounds.

Going into action today, the top five goaltenders in the NHL by save percentage with at least 30 starts are 1. Linus Ullmark, Boston (.937); 2. Jake Oettinger, Dallas (.927); 3. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg (.926); 4. Ilya Sorokin, Islanders (.924); and Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa (.919). Shesterkin (.912) is number 12 on that list. No, that wasn't a typo. Igor Shesterkin, last season's best save percentage goalie, isn't even in the top ten this season.

If you're not concerned, you should be. Chris Drury has done a masterful job assembling what many consider to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. The additions of Vladimir Tarasenko and Tyler Motte have made this team deeper and tougher to play against. But no amount of tweaking can overcome substandard goaltending.

The good news is there's still plenty of time for Shesterkin to find his game. The postseason doesn't start for another seven weeks. Additionally, four of the Rangers next five games are against non-playoff teams. So long as they continue to generate scoring chances the way they've been doing this month, they should be okay.

2022-23 NHL Predictions

Seeing as how I was so "great" with my predictions last year - I actually had the Islanders over the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup finals and neither team qualified for the postseason - I thought I'd give it another whirl. As always, take them with a rather large grain of salt.

Eastern Conference:

Atlantic Division:

Florida Panthers: They gave up their leading scorer and second best defenseman to land Matthew Tkachuk. That should tell you how desperate they were to get rid of the stench of last year's sweep at the hands of the Lightning. Time will tell if it was worth it.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Both Ryan McDonagh and Ondrej Palat were cap casualties and will be sorely missed. But there's still more than enough talent on this roster, and so long as they have Andrei Vasilevskiy in net, they have to be taken seriously as a Cup contender.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Everyone has jumped on their bandwagon this season, which is odd given that they didn't address their lack of depth during the offseason and they're relying on a goaltender whose best years are half a decade behind him. Auston Matthews will once again keep them relevant. 

Metropolitan Division:

New York Rangers: Vincent Trocheck is a step above Ryan Strome; the "kids" seem poised to have a break out year; and last season's Vezina trophy winner Igor Shesterkin is the best in the league. Chris Drury has done a masterful job as GM.

Carolina Hurricanes: Yes, Brent Burns is better than Tony DeAngelo, and they got Max Pacioretty from the Golden Knights ostensibly for free, but losing Trocheck to the Rangers and Nino Niederreiter to the Predators will cost them.

Pittsburgh Penguins: They kept "the band" together. So what? The last time this "band" won a playoff series was 2018. The core of this team is old and getting older. Ron Hextall keeps punting the ball hoping for a muff. It won't work.

Wild Cards: 

Boson Bruins: God only knows how Don Sweeney managed to entice Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to return on such team-friendly contracts - $2.5m and $1m respectively. Good for him. Sans them, this team would have a hard time staying above .500. But even with both on the roster, it's hard imagining them going far in the playoffs.

Columbus Blue Jackets: They made the biggest splash during the offseason, signing Johnny Gaudreau and then re-signed Patrik Laine. They'll score a ton of goals but struggle on D. 

Western Conference:

Central Division: 

Colorado Avalanche: They steamrolled their way to a Stanley Cup championship last season, going 16-4 in the tournament. And while losing Nazem Kadri to the Flames will test the depth of this team, the core is about as elite as it gets.

Nashville Predarors: McDonagh and Niederreiter were solid additions during the offseason and will make this team a formidable opponent during both the regular and postseason. Their goaltending is elite and their defense is among the best in the league.

St. Louis Blues: Balanced scoring throughout the lineup makes them a genuine threat, and Jordan Binnington is still one of the better goalies in the league.

Pacific Division:

Calgary Flames: Talk about turning lemons into lemonade. Their two best players departed over the summer: one via free agency, the other via a trade, and they managed to actually get better. Jonathan Huberdeau is one of the best forwards in the league and Kadri was the second best center on last year's Colorado Cup team. Despite last season's poor showing against the Oilers in the second round, Jacob Markstrom is an outstanding goaltender.

Edmonton Oilers: I'm going out on a limb here by picking them again for second place. They have the scoring up front with Connor McDavid; the issue is the defense. Jack Campbell may not be an elite goalie, but he's head over heels better than Mike Smith.

L.A. Kings: They lucked out when the Wild had to shed Kevin Fiala's contract in an obvious salary dump. Now they will at least be able to put some pucks in the net. Jonathan Quick should still have enough left in the tank to give them first-rate goaltending.

Wild Cards:

Minnesota Wild: Fiala was a salary cap casualty. And that's unfortunate for a team that challenged for second place in the division last season. They re-signed Marc-Andre Fleury so that will help.

Vancouver Canucks: Now that they've extended J.T. Miller and they have their coach in place, I expect they will do what they should've done last year: make the playoffs.

Close but no cigar:

Eastern Conference:

New York Islanders: For the second straight offseason, Lou Lamoriello failed to add an elite scorer to this otherwise pedestrian forward group. Pity Mathew Barzall, who deserves better than what he's been given.

Washington Capitals: They needed to get younger and didn't. The good news is that at least their fans will be able to see Alex Ovechkin break Wayne Gretzky's goal record.

New Jersey Devils: They needed a sniper on the wing; they got Ondrej Palat. They needed a solid goaltender; they got Vitek Vanecek. They'll score a lot of goals; they'll give up more.

Western Conference:

Vegas Golden Knights: Their successful pursuit of Jack Eichel has cost them Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, and Max Pacioretty. It will now cost them a second-consecutive postseason berth.

Dallas Stars: They extended the Flames a full seven games in the opening round of the playoffs last season. This year they won't get that chance.

Playoffs:

Eastern Conference Finals: Rangers over the Lightning 4-2

Western Conference Finals: Avalanche over the Flames 4-3

Stanley Cup Finals: Avalanche over the Rangers 4-2

Year End Awards:

Presidents' Trophy: Colorado Avalanche

Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid, Oilers

Hart Trophy: Jonathan Huberdeau, Flames

Norris Trophy: Roman Josi, Predators

Vezina Trophy: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning

Jack Adams Award: Gerard Gallant, Rangers

Conn Smythe Trophy: Cale Makar, Avalanche

We've Seen This Movie Before

One of the problems with being 61, apart from the occasional aches and pains that go along with it, is that I'm old enough to have seen a lot of shit go down that others have to look up to find out. As a sports fan who's had a love / hate relationship with my teams over the years, I've had my heart broken more times than I care to remember. The number one repeat offender has been the New York Rangers.

It hasn't been easy rooting for a team that has exactly one Stanley Cup to show for its efforts since the end of World War II. 1972, 1979, 1981-84, 1992, 1997, 2012, 2014, 2015. The list of near misses is as long as it is depressing, and it's about to grow by one.

You don't seriously think that a Jon Cooper-coached team is going to blow a chance to close out a best of seven Eastern Conference final this weekend, do you? If you do, you haven't been paying close attention to the way the Tampa Bay Lightning have played over the last three postseasons. Yes, the Islanders extended them to a seventh game in last year's semifinals, and yes they had to come from 3-2 down against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round this year. But those were the exceptions, not the rule. In every other series this team has played in, whenever they smelled blood they went in for the kill. Just ask the Florida Panthers about the Lightning's killer instinct. They were literally swept out of the playoffs in the second round.

Rangers fans have seen this movie before. During their Stanley Cup reign in the '80s, the Islanders played the Blueshirts four times and went four for four. It was frustrating knowing that no matter how hard they played, the results were always the same. Watching game five last night at the Garden, I had a sense of déjà vu. The Rangers played what was inarguably their best game since game two of the series. They skated with authority, they took the body, they cycled, they even struck first: a seeing-eye puck that found its way passed Andrei Vasilevskiy. It didn't matter. The Lightning got two of their own seeing-eye pucks passed Igor Shesterkin. In the end, the experience and poise of Tampa was simply too much to overcome. The Rangers played not to lose; the Lightning played to win. That was the difference in the game.

We can talk about the overpassing till the cows come home. David Quinn wasn't able to correct it and neither has Gerard Gallant. Face it, it's in their DNA. Last night, it was Andrew Copp's turn in the barrel. You live by the pass, you die by the pass. Right now they're dying by it. My only complaint was the way Gallant utilized the kid line. Given how completely ineffective Mika Zibanaejad and Chris Kreider have been over the last two games, it was disappointing to say the least that they had only eleven minutes of ice time as a unit, not even a minute more than the fourth line. The team's most effective forechecking line in the postseason and they barely touched the ice in the third period. If the season ends Saturday, Gallant will have some 'splainin' to do here.

So now it's onto Tampa for game six. Can the Rangers extend the series to a seventh game at the Garden? They are 5-0 in elimination games, so I suppose anything is possible. But consider this: after being pushed to the brink by the lowly Pittsburgh Penguins in the '82 preliminaries, the Islanders went 12-2 over the next three rounds to capture their third consecutive Cup. Since dispatching the Leafs in round one, the Bolts are 7-2.

I guess what I'm trying to say is don't go betting the kid's tuition on it.

Rangers Need To Wake Up

After game four of the Pittsburgh series, Gerard Gallant said his team was "soft;" after game five of the Carolina series, Gallant said his team was "tired;" and after game four of the Tampa series, Gallant said his team wasn't willing to "pay the price."

The common theme in all three games - aside from the fact that they were losses - is that the Rangers simply didn't do enough to win. Translation, sometimes your biggest opponent is the one staring back at you in the mirror.

None of that is meant to detract from the excellent job the Lightning have done since going down 0-2 in the Eastern Conference finals. Make no mistake about it: the Lightning have awoken and are playing every bit like the two-time Stanley Cup champions they are. They are making smart passes out of their zone; their speed is proving problematic for the Rangers D; they are clogging up the neutral zone, thus making it difficult for the Rangers to gain the offensive zone; and with each shift, Andrei Vasilevskiy is looking more and more like the Conn Smythe trophy winner he was last season.

But let's be honest here. Did anyone seriously believe that this proud team was going to lay down and call it a night after game two? Did the Rangers lay down after the Penguins routed them 7-2 in game four? The answer to both is no. Good teams find a way to bounce back, and that's exactly what the Lightning have done; they've bounced back. To quote Gallant's double negative, "They've won, what, ten series in a row? We're going to have to take it from them. They're not going to give us nothing."

To beat the Lightning, the Rangers are going to have to bring a helluva lot more effort than they showed in games three and four. Apart from the two power play goals they scored in game three and the meaningless one they scored late in game four, Vasilevskiy was hardly tested. He had maybe a half dozen high-quality scoring chances against in game three and almost none in game four.

New York hasn't scored at 5v5 since Mika Zibanejad's goal at 1:21 of the third period in game two. If you're counting, that's over 138 minutes without an even strength goal. Not to be a dick, but the Rangers couldn't beat the Hartford Wolf Pack with that kind of offensive output. If that metric doesn't change immediately, this will be the last home game of the season for the Blueshirts. The Bolts will wrap this series up in six.

So how do the Rangers turn it around? It won't be easy. This isn't the Pens they're playing, or even the Canes. Those opponents were tough, but they lacked the one thing the Lightning have in droves: playoff experience. Tampa has been here before; they know what it takes to win. And they will draw from that collective experience when they take the ice tonight. And to make matters worse, the Rangers might not have Ryan Strome or Filip Chytil in the lineup. Strome suffered a lower body injury in game three and Chytil suffered an upper body injury in game four. Even if both are able to return, they will not be at a hundred percent.

For starters, the Rangers have to play with the same sense of desperation the Lightning played with in games three and four. That means they must be willing to "pay the price," as their coach said. It isn't just enough to throw their weight around, they have to sellout in the corners where hockey games are often decided. In both games at Tampa, the Lightning virtually owned the boards. If you can't mount an effective forecheck in this league, you aren't going to win many games.

Another thing they have to do is dump the puck into the offensive zone. The Lightning are borrowing a page out of the Hurricanes playbook by taking away the passing lanes that allow the Rangers to set up their transition game. It's the number one reason why their 5v5 offense has stalled. To circumvent this, the Rangers not only have to be willing to shoot the puck into the zone, they have to do so with authority. They have to get on Tampa's wings quick and force their defensemen to handle the puck more. Over the last two games, it has been way too easy for the Lightning to get the puck out of their end.

The good news is that if the Rangers can manage even one even strength goal and convert on a couple of power plays, Igor Shesterkin should be able to make that stand up. He's been there for this team all season long, but as we saw in game three, he can't do it all by himself.  To paraphrase Ringo Starr, he needs a little help from his friends.

An Opportunity Squandered

I remember the moment like it was yesterday. It was game two of the 1979 Stanley Cup finals and the Rangers had already captured home ice from the Montreal Canadiens. On the strength of two first-period goals by Anders Hedberg and Ron Duguay, they were on their way to taking a commanding 2-0 lead in the series. Thirty-nine years of futility finally looked like they were about to come to an end.

That was when Mario Trembley's seemingly innocent cross-ice pass deflected off the leg of Yvon Lambert, passed a stunned John Davidson and into the net. The Forum crowd went wild, but more importantly, the home team woke up. The Canadiens scored the next five goals, on way to a 6-2 rout, and went onto win their fourth Cup in a row. Thirty-nine years became forty, and then forty became forty-one, and then, well, you get the picture.

It's too early to tell whether Nikita Kucherov's power play goal in game three of this best of seven series between the two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning and the Rangers will have the same impact Lambert's goal had 43 years ago. But the parallels are unmistakable. Like that '79 team, this Rangers team had a lead of 2-0 on the strength of two power play goals by Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider in the second period. And though the Blueshirts were being outshot by the Bolts, they had the better scoring chances halfway through the game. A win meant a 3-0 stranglehold lead in the series.

But a questionable interference penalty on Jacob Trouba at 10:09 of the second period opened the door for Tampa Bay and they walked right through it. The ensuing power play goal by Kucherov at 10:50 brought the crowd to its feet and gave the Lightning the spark they were looking for. They would go on to score the next two goals, the last one coming with 41.6 seconds left in the third period.

Bye, bye dreams of a sweep. We now have a series on our hands. And though the Rangers still hold a 2-1 lead in games, this is NOT the same Lightning team they dominated in the first two games at Madison Square Garden; not even close. Tampa Bay was the better team at 5v5 and bottled up New York the latter half of the game. If you had a dollar for every scoring chance the Rangers had in the third period, you wouldn't have enough money to buy a happy meal.

To keep this series from going back to the Garden tied, the Blueshirts are going to have to elevate their level of play significantly. While Igor Shesterkin is still the better goalie, Andrei Vasilevskiy has suddenly rediscovered his game. He robbed Barclay Goodrow and Tyler Motte on consecutive shots in the first to keep the contest scoreless. He has a history of playing better the deeper a series goes. Just ask the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers; both teams are playing golf right now because of him.

It may well be that all that happened Sunday was that a desperate Lightning team did what it had to do to get back in the series. The Rangers still have a dangerous power play and if Trouba doesn't get called for those two third-period penalties, who knows, maybe we ARE talking about a sweep after all.

Coulda, shoulda, woulda isn't going to help the Rangers now. They had an opportunity to drive the Tampa Bay Lightning to the brink of the abyss and they squandered it. They broke the cardinal rule every sports team knows by heart: never let your opponent up off the mat.

Well this isn't your run-of-the-mill opponent we're talking about here. This is a two-time Stanley Cup championship team that has gone through hell and back together. Maybe the strain of playing all those playoff games catches up to them, or maybe they summon the will to end this marvelous postseason journey the Rangers have been on.

We'll know soon enough.

The Rangers Send a Strong Message

That wasn't Louis Domingue between the pipes for the Tampa Bay Lightning last night; nor was it Antti Raanta. That was none other than Andrei Vasilevskiy, last year's Conn Smythe trophy winner, the goaltender universally acknowledged as the finest in the world, and the man who in the last series posted a .981 save percentage against the NHL's number one offense. Well, when the Rangers were done, they wound up scoring twice as many goals in one game as Vasilevskiy allowed in the last four.

To add insult to injury, his "understudy" two hundred feet away stole the show. Igor Shesterkin stopped 37 of 39 shots, or as it's better known around the organization, just another day at the office. The Rangers skated circles around the two-time Stanley Cup champs, who admittedly looked rusty from being off for nine days. They threw their weight around and took advantage of the passing lanes they seldom saw against the Carolina Hurricanes. Artemi Panarin must've felt like a prisoner out on parole with all the freedom he had to maneuver with the puck. His cross-ice pass set up Mika Zibanejad's power play goal that capped off the scoring for the Blueshirts.

It was nice having a laugher for once; it was even nicer having a lead in a series, something the Rangers have failed to do throughout these playoffs. For once, the haters couldn't dismiss what happened on the ice. There were no scrub goalies to take advantage of, no Jacob Trouba hits leading to key players being concussed, no missed penalties leading to game-tying goals. The Rangers played a full sixty minutes of hockey against a legitimate Cup contender and for the better part of the contest were the better team.

New York had six players with two points, eleven with at least one. The top three lines all contributed to the scoring with Filip Chytil leading the way with two goals in the second period; the latter coming off a brilliant cross-ice pass from Alexis Lafreniere that Vasilevskiy had no chance on. Once more, the kid line was the most consistent line on the ice for the Rangers.

Yes, I get it, it was only one game, and yes, that wasn't the Pittsburgh Penguins the Rangers were playing out there; it was the Tampa Bay Lightning, the team looking to become only the fourth team in NHL history to win at least three consecutive Stanley Cups. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Montreal Canadiens and New York Islanders are the other three. The Bolts will almost certainly step up their game Friday night. They will have no choice, because that wasn't the Florida Panthers they were playing out there either. The Puddy Tats, as I wrote ad nauseam, were a deeply flawed team that was destined to fail once the playoffs began. These Rangers are the exact polar opposite of that team: resilient, persistent and determined. They may go down, but not without one helluva fight.

And regarding whether or not that happens, two things are worth noting here. The first has to do with historical trends. According to Stat Boy Steven, since 2000, teams that took a full seven games to dispose of their lower round opponents were 7-0 against teams that swept theirs. Apparently, having all that time off does more harm than good. The second has to do more with the style of play the Lightning employ. Put succinctly, the Rangers enjoy playing that style of hockey. It suits them well. Forwards like Zibanejad and Panarin have more room to create on the rush. That may explain why they went 3-0 against Tampa during the regular season. If I were Jon Cooper, I'd be more worried about the latter than the former. I haven't seen the Rangers this pumped to play an opponent in years. Compared to the Hurricanes, the Lightning are a walk in the park.

Bottom line, this is going to be a long and exciting series; one in which the team that prevails will be the prohibitive favorite to capture the Cup. Buckle up.

NHL Playoff Preview (Third Round)

So now it's down to four. The conference finals are upon us, and for the first time in years, we will have two incredible series to watch. No "systems" designed to slow down the game or thwart the other team's advantage. All four of these teams rely on their elite-level talent to propel them to victory. Like the NBA does every spring, the NHL will have the opportunity to showcase to millions of casual hockey fans just how great this sport can be when the stars take charge.

I went three for four in the last round; with Carolina the only team that didn't cover. Like I wrote earlier, next time I'll trust my heart. And while I usually resist the urge to look ahead, spoiler alert, the prohibitive favorite to capture the Stanley Cup will likely come from the East.

Without further ado,

Eastern Conference:

New York vs. Tampa Bay: What a matchup. The youngest team in the playoffs against the two-time Stanley Cup champions. The good news is that the Rangers will have home ice in this series. The bad news is that the one huge advantage they've had in these playoffs - goaltending - will be nullified. As brilliant as Igor Shesterkin has been, Andrei Vasilevskiy is in another world. Consider he held the Florida Panthers - the NHL's number one offense - to a measly three goals in four games. His save percentage was an astounding .981 in that series.

Unlike the Hurricanes, the Lightning have an exceptional power play, even without Brayden Point. The Rangers are going to have to stay out of the penalty box or they will get lit up. Another piece of good news is that forwards like Artemi Panarin should finally have the space to create offense that the Canes took away. Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox will go toe to toe with Stephen Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman.

Both teams' GMs did exceptionally well adding valuable pieces at the trade deadline. Julien BriseBois has the inside track to be executive of the year. It's clear Chris Drury is attempting to copy the Lightning model. He brought in Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Reaves and Sammy Blais during the offseason to toughen up this roster and it has paid dividends.

The experts are all picking Tampa, and I totally get it. This Lightning team is the best the NHL has seen since those legendary New York Islanders teams of the 1980s. Sans Ondrej Palat, this core will be together for at least one more year. It is not out of the realm of possibility that they could win four cups in a row. 

And yet, even with all that, the Rangers still represent a serious threat to their reign. If they can jump out to an early series lead, they do have the depth to push the Bolts to the very edge. Sooner or later all those playoff games have got to take their toll. Rangers in seven.

Western Conference:

Colorado vs. Edmonton: I'm not much of a gambler but I'm gonna go out on a limb here and predict that betting the over will pay handsomely in this series. Forget about Auston Matthews, Conor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon are the two best players in the NHL, and if you enjoy watching elite hockey players put on a show, you will be in for a treat with these two. Think Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier. Yes, they're that good. The goaltenders will have their work cut out for them.

The Avalanche have the advantage by virtue of having home ice. Also Cale Makar will be the best defenseman in this series, not that there will be much defense on display. This could be turn into a track meet fast. Just look at what the Oilers did to Vezina trophy finalist Jacob Markstrom in the last round. I actually felt sorry for him.

The smart money's on Colorado, but my gut tells me the Oilers have something going for them. The way McDavid is lighting up the score sheet, there might be nothing that can stop him. And I wasn't exactly thrilled at the way the Avs blew that three goal lead against the St. Louis Blues at home. Oilers in six.

So Much for a Storm Surge

Don't look now, but the Carolina Hurricanes, the team the so-called experts, myself included, thought was the team to beat in the Eastern conference, are tied with the New York Rangers, the team that the analytics community has been disparaging for much of this season.

Not only are these two teams tied with each other, but after last night's game - a 4-1 Rangers win - the momentum is most decidedly NOT with the team based in Raleigh. In fact, a strong argument can be made that were it not for a game-tying goal late in the third period of game one by Sebastian Aho, the Blueshirts would be on the verge of winning this series Thursday night instead of merely looking to take a 3-2 lead.

Consider the following: In four games, the Canes have managed to score a paltry five goals against Igor Shesterkin; they are 0 for 9 on the power play; and their top two defensemen - Tony DeAngelo and Jaccob Slavin, who racked up eight points a piece against the Boston Bruins in round one - have been held off the score sheet. DeAngelo, in particular, has had a miserable series and seems more intent on picking a fight with Ryan Reaves than helping his team win.

Meanwhile, the Rangers, apart from that third period goal in game one, a short-hander by Brendan Smith in game two and a few pushes by Carolina in games three and four, have been the better team so far in this series. They are out-hustling the Canes; they are getting scoring from all four forward lines; and with the power play now starting to click and Igor living up to his billing, a trip to the conference finals is looking less and less like a pipe dream and more and more like a real possibility.

Ironic, isn't it? Of the four remaining series, this is the only one that's been remotely competitive. The Tampa Bay Lightning disposed of the Florida Panthers - AKA, the Puddy Tats - in four straight; the Edmonton Oilers are currently leading the Calgary Flames 3-1; and barring divine intervention, the Colorado Avalanche will put the St. Louis Blues out of their misery tonight. 

I'm usually not one to eat crow, but even I couldn't have expected this. After all, it's not like the Rangers played like gang busters against the Pittsburgh Penguins. They twice had to overcome two-goal deficits while facing elimination, not once, not twice, but three times. Talk about sudden death. Only an overtime power play goal by Artemi Panarin in game seven prevented what would've been a disappointing first round exit. Even the most die-hard fan would have to admit that beating the Hurricanes was an uphill battle.

Look, they still have to win at least one game in Carolina, and that won't be an easy task. The Hurricanes are 6-0 at home; I fully expect them to step up their game Thursday night. But the Rangers team that takes the ice for game five will have a lot more confidence going for it than the one that showed up in games one and two. They know they can beat this team and, what's more, the Hurricanes know it too. Knowledge is a beautiful thing, if you do something with it.

The Rangers seem to relish the role of underdog in these playoffs; it has served them well. They are two wins away from getting a crack at the two-time Stanley Cup champs. Just imagine what a series between Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy would look like.

I get goosebumps just thinking about it.