Chris Drury's Agonizing Decision.

What do Cam Ward (.920), Chris Osgood (.930), Marc-Andre Fluery (.913), Tim Thomas (.967), Jonathan Quick (.947 & .932), Corey Crawford (.925 & .938), Matt Murray (.920 & .931), Braden Holtby (.916), Jordan Binnington (.912), Andrei Vasilevsky (.911 & .943), Darcy Kuemper (.908) and Adin Hill (.923) all have in common? They all led their respective teams to Stanley Cup championships, and did so while posting a save percentage above .900.

Since the NHL instituted a hard salary cap beginning in the 2005-06 season, only three teams have won the Cup with goaltenders that had sub .900 save percentages: Jean-Sébastien Giguère (.891) for the Anaheim Ducks in 2007, Antti Niemi (.882) for the Chicago Blackhawks in 2010 and Sergei Bobrovsky (.899) for the Florida Panthers in 2024. But if we're being fair, it's really only two. That's because Bobrovsky posted save percentages of 1.000, .947, .914 and .958 in the four games the Panthers won. He literally stole game one. Without him in net, the Edmonton Oilers probably win the series in six.

So what is my point? Basically this: goaltending is as essential to winning the Stanley Cup as pitching is to winning the World Series and special teams are to winning the Super Bowl. Without it, your chances of prevailing are remote at best. The fact is there isn't a sport on this planet that doesn't depend on one team stopping the other from scoring.

Yes, there are exceptions to this rule. I listed two of them above. But you can't tell me with a straight face that the Los Angeles Kings win their two Cups in 2012 & 2014 without Jonathan Quick between the pipes, or that the Pittsburgh Penguins and Tampa Bay Lightning win back-to-back Cups without Matt Murray and Andrei Vasilevsky respectively. Not without having to submit to a breathalyzer test.

Go back as far as you like, even before the cap era. Where would the Montreal Canadiens have been without Ken Dryden? Or the Philadelphia Flyers without Bernie Parent? Or the Islanders without Billy Smith? Or the New Jersey Devils without Marty Brodeur? I omit the Oilers '80s dynasty, because I do believe that team would've won with Doug Soeteart in goal. Imagine having to go back five decades to prove a point. And that point, at least according to the pinheads - some of whom make a living covering this sport and actually think they know something about hockey - is that goaltending is a plug-in-play position. Basically, you can put anybody in there, and if your team is good enough, you'll win.

Oh yeah? Tell that to Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch. His goalie Stuart Skinner should've stopped Sam Reinhart's second-period goal that made it 2-1 Florida. If he makes that save, game seven likely goes to overtime. And then who knows what would've happened. We could be talking about the greatest comeback in NHL history instead of, well, you know. His counterpart - the guy everybody swears is grossly overpaid at $10 million - had no problem coming up with the big saves when his team needed them. In hockey, it's not how many saves you make, but when you make them that counts. With the series on the line and the Cup in the building, Sergei Bobrovsky delivered. The man earned his paycheck. EVERY FUCKING PENNY!

Goaltending is the only position I can think of where scoring an 88 on a test gets you an F. And that's why Chris Drury has an agonizing decision to make. One that I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy. A year from now, Igor Shesterkin will be a UFA. For those of you who own stock in Depends, now would be a good time to buy some more shares. Trust me, you're gonna need 'em.

There's no polite way to put this. Without Shesterkin, the Rangers are a slightly above average team that isn't close to being a contender. They don't beat the Penguins, much less the Carolina Hurricanes, in 2022. And while they most likely would've beaten the Washington Capitals this year, that series would've gone at least six games. Forget about the Canes. They would've lost in six. The Panthers? Try a four-game sweep. You wanna give the Blueshirts game two at the Garden? Ok, fine, but that's it. The fact is I cannot think of a single team in the league that is more reliant upon its goaltending than the Rangers. It's like Popeye with his spinach.

And that's why unless his agent goes completely bonkers and demands somewhere in the neighborhood of $14-$15 million per year over 8 years, Drury cannot afford to let Igor jump ship. Even if the number is $12 million, unless the Rangers believe Dylan Garand is ready to make the leap from Hartford to the NHL - a HUGE risk, by the way - they sign him to that contract. In fact, they make sure he doesn't leave the building until he signs it. He grew up in Russia; I'm sure he's familiar with being detained. 

Just kidding, I think.

Don't get me wrong. If there's a chance Drury can keep that number at or below $10 million, he should exhaust every effort to do so. But if I had $10 million, or even $12 million, to spend on a goaltender, I'd take Shesterkin over Bobrovsky or Vasilevsky any day of the week, and twice on Sunday. You wanna talk about a team-friendly contract? If the $5.7 million Igor is currently making doesn't constitute highway robbery, I don't know what does. One way or another, the man is going to get paid; the only question is by whom?

Look, I get the economics here. $10 or $12 million is nothing to sneeze at. And with the salary cap expected to go up to $92 million next summer, the ramifications of one player taking up potentially 13 percent of that cap are considerable. But given that Artemi Panarin is making $11.6 million and he hasn't exactly been Guy Lafleur in the postseason, is it really unreasonable to compensate someone who has been, without question, the team's most valuable player the last three years? Like I said, someone is going to pay him.

There will be those who will argue, perhaps with some justification, that it's possible to find elite goaltenders without breaking the bank. Adin Hill, Jake Oettinger and Jeremy Swayman all made less than $5 million and all had exceptional postseasons. I would counter that Hill and Oettinger are a year away from becoming RFAs and Swayman is an RFA right now and looking at a fairly significant pay raise. By the time they get to UFA status, all three will be making five figures, I can assure you. As Howie Rose would say, you can put it in the books.

This is the hard part of being a general manager. Anybody can hire and fire a coach. But fielding a team that is both a contender and cap compliant, now that takes talent. Chris Drury not only has to fix what went wrong this year, he has to do so in a way that guarantees there will still be a reason to go to Madison Square Garden in the 2025-26 season.

I don't envy him the next twelve months.

Goody Enough

For sixty minutes, the New York Rangers threw everything they had at the Florida Panthers. They fought tooth and nail for every inch of ice. They scraped, they clawed, they hit and they got hit. They were twice the team they were in game one. And all it got them was a 1-1 tie going into overtime. The Panthers, having won game one at the Garden 3-0, and with it home ice, were playing with house money. A win would give them a stranglehold on the series going back to their home arena. The Rangers were looking at an almost impossible task, one that only one team since 1945 had accomplished: winning a best of seven conference or league final series after dropping the first two games at home.

Barclay Goodrow's snapshot from the slot at 14:01 of OT didn't just win the game for the Rangers, it saved their season. If ever there was a must win situation, last night was it. So now the Presidents' Trophy winners get an opportunity to recapture home ice with a split in Sunrise, Florida. The hockey gods were indeed merciful, for a change.

But while Goodrow's teammates celebrated their good fortune, there is still much work that needs to be done if this team is to advance to the finals for the first time since 2014, and only the second time since their Cup year of 1994. For starters, the special teams have been anything but special of late. After going 11-25 on the power play in their first six postseason games, the Rangers have gone 1-16 over their last six, including 0-4 last night. The Rangers record over those first six games was 6-0; over the last six, it's 3-3.

The concern is palpable. Going into this series with the Panthers, the Rangers had two advantages going for them: their goaltending and their power play. Well, Igor Shesterkin has held up his end of the bargain. The former Vezina Trophy winner has gone toe to toe with Sergei Bobrovsky. Not counting the own goal Alexis Lafreniere deflected past him in game one, Shesterkin has stopped 51 of 53 shots on goal for a .962 save percentage through two games. That's the sort of brilliance that can earn a player the Conn-Smythe Award.

But no matter how brilliant Igor may be, he cannot drag this team across the finish line all by himself. He needs help. Put succinctly, there is no pathway to a Stanley Cup for the Rangers that doesn't include a productive power play. None. Their 5v5 play simply isn't good enough. During the regular season, New York had a GF% of 50.15 at 5v5. By contrast, Florida was 56.57. The fact is the Rangers got lucky last night. They actually outscored the Panthers 2-0 at even strength. Depending on that luck to continue would be foolhardy.

The problem is a familiar one. For all the elite talent on this team, the Rangers power play remains as predictable as dirt. They tried mixing it up a bit against the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes, and, eureka, it worked. But then like a drunk on a bender, the old habits returned. Since game three of the Canes series, the Blueshirts have stubbornly resisted even tweaking their power play. The results - one power play goal in the last six games - speak for themselves. The Panthers know exactly what's coming and they are prepared for it. In the first two games of this series, the Rangers have yet to register a single high-danger scoring chance with the man advantage. If Peter Laviolette and his staff don't rectify this problem soon, game five will be the last home game of the season for this team.

But even if they manage to fix the power play, there's one more nagging issue that besets them. The Rangers continue to have trouble exiting the defensive zone. While not as proficient as game one, Florida was still able to pin New York in its own end most of the game. The lack of clean exits is bound to take its toll as the series progresses, especially the way the Panthers take the body. The Rangers must find a way to get the puck into the neutral zone that doesn't involve multiple hits along the boards. Laviolette was hired because of his ability to make adjustments on the fly. Now would be a good time to make at least two of them.

Game three is Sunday afternoon. The Rangers are tied with the Panthers. They have Barclay Goodrow to thank for that.

NHL Playoff Preview (Round Two)

One round is in the books - almost. Three to go. 

Round two begins Sunday afternoon with the New York Rangers hosting the Carolina Hurricanes at Madison Square Garden. We'll have to wait until later tonight to find out who gets the "pleasure" of playing the Colorado Avalanche: the Vegas Golden Knights or the Dallas Stars. The only surprise so far was how badly the Winnipeg Jets played. The number one defense in the NHL during the regular season got lit up like a Christmas tree by the Avs, and the likely Vezina trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck surrendered a total of 24 goals on 177 shots over five games for a save percentage of .870.

Just like I did in the last round, I will begin my preview of round two with the Rangers and work my way down by conference. I do this in fun, so no wagering.

Eastern Conference:

New York vs. Carolina: For the third time in four years, these two teams will meet in the postseason. The Hurricanes beat the Rangers 3-0 in the 2020 Qualifying Round; the Blueshirts returned the favor two years laster, winning 4-3 in the Eastern Conference semifinals. This will be the first time since round one in '20 that Carolina won't have home ice in a playoff series.

Both teams disposed of their first round "opponents" in short order: the Rangers in four; the Hurricanes in five. Both teams are genuine Cup contenders with elite-level talent that are capable of going all the way. Both are well coached and both have excellent special teams. Ten different players scored for the Rangers against the Caps, while twelve different players scored for the Canes against the Isles, so clearly depth is not an issue for either team.

Since their last playoff meeting, the Rangers and Hurricanes have made changes to their rosters; the former by signing center Vincent Trocheck, the latter by acquiring winger Jake Guentzel at the trade deadline. Both players have improved their respective teams. If Filip Chytil, who's been out with a concussion since November, plays, that will give the Blueshirts a third scoring line.

Two years ago, the Rangers had a huge advantage in net. That won't be the case this time around. While Igor Shesterkin is still the better goalie, Frederik Andersen, who was out due to injury in '22, narrows the gap significantly for the Canes. There'll be no blowouts in this series. Expect a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games with both teams winning at least one game in the other's arena. Look for Peter Laviolette to use the Alex Wennberg line on the Sebastian Aho line.

This series will go the distance. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes overtime to decide the winner. Rangers in seven.

Florida vs. Boston: For those assuming the winner of the Rangers / Hurricanes series is a lock for the finals, I would advise them to cool their jets. Florida was quite impressive in their five-game takedown of the Tampa Bay Lightning. There isn't a weakness on this Panthers team. They have depth throughout their lineup and elite goaltending. Meanwhile, the Bruins needed a full seven games to defeat a Toronto Maple Leafs team that was without Auston Matthews for two of those games. I doubt the Puddy Tats will need that many to do the same to them. Panthers in five.

Western Conference:

Dallas or Vegas vs. Colorado: The Avalanche went through the Winnipeg Jets like shit through a goose. They won't be so fortunate against either the Stars or the Golden Knights, both of whom are putting on a clinic for how hockey is supposed to be played. That's because both teams are considerably deeper and faster than the Jets and can go toe to toe with the Avs. Stars or Golden Knights in seven.

Vancouver vs. Edmonton: In some respects this might be the most intriguing series of the playoffs. The Canucks have made several trips to the finals, but have never won the Cup. The Oilers haven't won it since the glory days of Gretzky and Messier, but have come up short over the last few years. Rick Tocchet might win the Jack Adams award but it's Kris Knoblauch who's gotten Connor McDavid and Co. to commit to playing defense. If Thatcher Demko can't go for Vancouver, this could get ugly. Oilers in six.

In the event the Rangers don't advance, these are my predictions for the balance of the playoffs and year-end awards:

Playoffs:

Eastern Conference Finals: Panthers over Hurricanes 4-2

Western Conference Finals: Stars or Golden Knights over Oilers 4-3

Stanley Cup Finals: Panthers over Stars or Golden Knights 4-3

Conn-Smythe Trophy: Matthew Tkachuk

Year-end Awards:

Hart Trophy: Nathan MacKinnon

Jack Adams Award: Rick Tocchet

Norris Trophy: Quinn Hughes

Vezina Trophy: Connor Hellebuyck

In Igor We Trust

What a difference a month makes. In January, the New York Rangers were in the midst of a mid-season slump which saw them go 5-7-2, allowing 47 goals for an average of 3.36 per game. Their number one goaltender Igor Shesterkin was, likewise, in a slump. His save percentage of .863 tied a career low. The optimism that surrounded the team earlier in the year was gone, replaced by a sense of fatalism that Rangers fans know all too well.

But then, as if by Providence, the All-Star Break arrived, and so far in February, the Rangers have gone 7-0-0, surrendering a paltry 15 goals for an average of 2.14 per game. And not coincidentally, Shesterkin's save percentage for the month is an astounding .937.

This is the second year in a row that Shesterkin has shit the bed one month only to miraculously regain his Vezina trophy form the next. Last season he had an identical save percentage of .863 in February before posting save percentages of .932 and .941 over the final two months of the regular season.

While the Rangers have definitely improved their level of play under Peter Laviolette, one thing remains constant: this team will go as far as its goaltending takes them. Two years ago, that was good enough to advance to the Eastern Conference finals. Chris Drury can bring in all the reinforcements he wants at the trade deadline; if Shesterkin isn't Shesterkin, it won't matter.

Witness what happened Tuesday night at the Garden. Fresh off their exhilarating, come-from-behind, 6-5 overtime win against the Islanders Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium, the Rangers played a spirited first two periods against the Dallas Stars, one of the best teams in the Western Conference, carrying a 2-1 lead into the third period. In the third, though, Dallas peppered Shesterkin with 17 shots on goal, many of them high danger chances. And Igor didn't blink. He turned aside all 17 of them. Between the win over the Stars and the shutout over the Calgary Flames last Monday night, Shesterkin stopped 70 of 71 shots he faced.

Over their storied existence, the Rangers have been blessed to have some of the best goalies in NHL history play for them. Dave Kerr, Gump Worsley, Jacques Plante, Eddie Giacomin, John Vanbiesbrouck, Mike Richter, Henrik Lundqvist and now Shesterkin. Sadly, only Kerr (1940) and Richter (1994) succeeded in leading their teams to the Stanley Cup; Giacomin (1972) and Lundqvist (2014) took them only as far as the finals.

The jury is still out on Shesterkin. There are times when no one in the league can touch him with a ten foot goalie stick. Then there are times when you shake your head and wonder what the hell's going on. Two years ago, he outclassed Andrei Vasilevskiy in the first two games of the Easter Conference finals, and had it not been for a couple of questionable coaching decisions by Gerard Gallant, the Rangers might well have gone on to win their second Cup since World War II.

The talent is undeniable. If there's a problem, it resides between his ears. Put succinctly, Shesterkin is a very emotional player, who's prone to ups and downs. Unlike King Henrik, who had ice water in his veins, it doesn't take much to get Igor off his game. One bad goal and it all comes crashing down like a house of cards. I've never seen anything like it. All goalies have bad games; Shesterkin has bad months.

But now that he's rediscovered his game, fans are once again chanting "Igor, Igor," while opponents are cursing him under their breath. Tuesday night it was the Stars turn to curse, and curse they did. Dallas is second in the NHL in goals scored, yet Shesterkin made them look like the Hartford Wolf Pack.

That's the kind of brilliance he's capable of displaying, and it's the kind of brilliance the Rangers are going to need come April. For all their skillset, this is still a team that likes to live on the edge. Without elite-level goaltending they are only slightly better than the team that muddled through the month of January. Jonathan Quick has been a steady and reliable backup, one of the best signings Drury has made in his tenure as GM. But at 38, no one knows if he has the stamina to go four rounds.

In the end, fair or not, it all comes down to Igor. He will either be the Rangers ticket to a deep run in the postseason, or the reason they get booted early.

About That Slump

Turns out those storm clouds on the horizon were nothing but a sun shower. After dropping three out of four games in rather ugly fashion, the New York Rangers have rebounded, winning three in a row, two against playoff-caliber teams. 

But even more impressive, their Vezina trophy-winning goalie seems to have regained his form. Against the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs, Igor Shesterkin stopped 52 of 55 shots. Three goals against in two games. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, doubters.

The puck management that had had alluded the Rangers over the last few games returned as if it had never been gone. The 2-1 OT win over the Bruins might be the best game this team has played in years; and after getting shellacked by the Maple Leafs 7-3 at the Garden last week, Tuesday's 5-2 win in Toronto was sweet revenge.

In retrospect, that 7-4 win over the Bruins last month might've been the worst thing that could've happened to this team; it gave them a false sense of accomplishment. By all accounts, it was one of the sloppiest games of the season, with both sides committing multiple turnovers. I have long held that a team that wins these types of games is like a kid who gets away with eating a chocolate chip cookie before dinner. He never pays the price, hence he never learns anything.

Well, let's just say that, unlike that kid with the cookie, the Rangers did learn something. They learned that pretending to be the 1985 Edmonton Oilers can lead to one helluva tummy ache. It's not that they don't have elite-level talent; they do. It's just that relying on that talent isn't enough; not in today's NHL. If it were, if talent alone was all a team needed, Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews would each have at least two Stanley Cup rings by now. Think about it: the Vegas Golden Knights didn't have a single scorer in the top 70 last season; yet they still won the Cup. At the end of the day, hockey is a team sport. Fantasy teams may be fun and lucrative, but they seldom win championships.

So now that the Rangers have had their rude awakening, all appears to be well. Peter Laviolette no doubt had some choice words for his players after the Toronto loss, and since then the results have been self evident. No more track meets, no more run and gun, no more half-assed passes that lead to turnovers. Just structure, structure, structure, the way he and his staff drew it up on the black board during the preseason.

For their part, the Blueshirts have been attentive students. Over their first 30 games, they are 22-7-1 for 45 points. How good is that? Consider that the 1993-94 team that won the Cup went 21-6-3 for 45 points in their first 30 games. I realize some might think it sacrilegious to compare this team to such an illustrious group of athletes. Don't count me as one of them. The more I see this team play, the more convinced I become that we could be looking at something special come June.

Fundamentally, this is as sound a hockey team as you are likely to find. They are well coached and they are disciplined. They do whatever it takes to win. They go into the trenches, they take the body, they finish their checks, they block shots, they win face-offs, they convert on the power play. And on those rare occasions when they fail to do any of those things, their goaltending is good enough to bail them out. Games they lost last season they are finding a way to win this season. It isn't always pretty, but since when has hockey always been pretty?

They are in first place in the Eastern conference, only two points behind the league-leading Golden Knights. Can you say Presidents' Trophy? I knew you could.

They are no fluke; they have earned everything they have gotten so far.

Rangers Off To A Good Start - So Far

Over the first six games of Alain Vigneault's tenure as head coach of the New York Rangers, they went 2-4-0. Not quite the start they were looking for. The team would struggle most of the first half of the 2013-14 season; on December 20, their record stood at 16-18-2. To say the natives were restless would be putting it mildly.

Fortunately, the Blushsirts turned it around, going 29-13-7 the rest of the way, finishing second in the Metropolitan division, and advancing all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in 20 years. Despite losing to the L.A. Kings in five, the consensus was that the season was an unqualified success.

There are several parallels between that team and the current one: a mix of seasoned veterans with a sprinkle of young players, a Vezina trophy goalie capable of stealing games, and an established head coach with a new system.

In his first six games behind the Rangers bench, Peter Laviolette has managed to kill two birds with one stone. Not only has his team gotten off to a fairly impressive 4-2-0 start, in three of those wins they appear to have successfully implemented his system. Granted, the Buffalo Sabres, Arizona Coyotes and Seattle Kraken are hardly the Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils, but you have to learn to walk before you can run.

During much of the 1990s and early 2000s, the Devils employed the 1-3-1 neutral zone trap so effectively, they won three Cups. Now that Laviolette has brought that neutral zone trap to New York, the hope is that history will repeat itself on the other side of the Hudson. After watching the Rangers cede their blue line for years, it's refreshing to see them finally stand their ground and make opponents work to gain the offensive zone. 

There are two statistics that stand out. The first has been a sore spot for years. In their first five games, the Rangers have won 55.7 percent of their face offs. Last year, they won 49.1 percent of them. You have to go all the way back to that '94 Cup year to find a team that dominated at the face off circle. In a league that values puck possession, winning face offs is a must.

But it's the other statistic that's turning heads. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Rangers are currently ranked 8th in Corsi for shot percentage at 5v5. Last season, they were ranked 17th. In Gerard Gallant's first season as head coach - the year they went to the conference finals - they were ranked 25th. Combined with a power play that is currently ranked 4th in CF%, the Rangers have the potential to be one of the elite teams in the league this year.

Another encouraging sign is the way Laviolette is utilizing the "kids." Both Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko are starting to flourish in the top six, and Filip Chytil is becoming a solid two-way center with Artemi Panarin as his left wing. Chytil has five assists in his last two games, while Lafreniere scored a power play goal against the Calgary Flames the other night, the fourth of his career. He's tied with Panarin for second most goals on the team with three. Not bad for a supposed "bust."

Look, it's still early. Anything can happen. But with the Carolina Hurricanes struggling and the Devils defense and goaltending leaking like a sieve, a first place finish in the Metro isn't out of the realm of possibility for the Rangers.

Tell me you saw that coming in September. I sure as hell didn't.

2023-24 NHL Predictions

It's that time of year again when yours truly puts what's left of his reputation on the line. Two years ago, I had the Vegas Golden Knights and New York Islanders in the Stanley Cup Finals; neither team made the playoffs. Last year, I picked the Rangers and Colorado Avalanche to meet in the Finals; both teams were eliminated in the first round. So, I guess you could say I'm improving. At this rate, in another three years, I'll finally nail it.

All kidding aside, it's all done in fun, so don't take it too seriously. After all, I had the Columbus Blue Jackets as a wild card last season and they were one of the worst teams in the NHL. So with that in mind, let's get on with the predictions.

Eastern Conference:

Atlantic Division:

Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs finally won a playoff series last season - beating the Tampa Bay Lightning in seven - and then promptly lost to the Florida Panthers in the next round. As usual, it's never about the level of talent in Toronto, but rather the level of toughness. Hence, the signings of Tyler Bertuzzi and Ryan Reaves. The fab four will carry the offensive load, but after that, they're a little thin to make a deep run in the postseason.

Florida Panthers: Last season, the Panthers - formerly known as the Puddy Tats - shocked the hockey world by not just knocking off the Presidents' Trophy Boston Bruins, but going all the way to the finals before finally losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. Matthew Tkachuk is one of the best all-around forwards in the game and Sergei Bobrovsky redeemed his reputation last spring as a money goaltender.

Boston Bruins: Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí both retired, Taylor Hall was dealt to the Blackhawks, and Tyler Bertuzzi and Dmitry Orlov both left via free agency. No team in the league was probably more negatively impacted by the constraints of the flat salary cap than the Bruins. And yet, this will still be a solid defensive team with elite-level goaltending that will win its fair share of games.

Metropolitan Division:

New Jersey Devils: If you saw their meteoric rise last season you're a better man than me. Rarely has a core popped all at once. Their speed down the middle is their greatest asset and they will give defenses fits all season long. I'm still not sold that their goaltending is up to the task of going the distance and they're a little thin on the blue line. But their top six is as good as it gets.

Carolina Hurricanes: Michael Bunting should fit right in with this group of forwards which, though lacking explosiveness, is one of the most cohesive groups in the NHL. No team generates more scoring chances than the Canes. But as we saw in last year's ECF, they lack the finishers to capitalizes on them.

New York Rangers: Peter Laviolette is tasked with turning this talent laden team into a Cup contender. It may take a while for his up-tempo system to be fully implemented, hence the third place prediction. With Shesterkin in net, they will always be a threat. Whether they have the testicular fortitude to go all the way remains to be seen.

Wild Cards: 

Buffalo Sabres: If the Sabres had played as well at home as they did on the road, they would've made the playoffs last season. This is an up and coming team that is young, talented and on the verge of being a genuine contender. They will drive whichever team they meet in the postseason up the wall. Defense is their only concern.

Ottawa Senators: Another young team on the rise. Brady Thuchuk - Matthew's younger brother - and Tim Stützle are genuine stars. Like the Sabres, they're also a year or two away from being a contender, but watch out.

Close but no cigar:

Pittsburgh Penguins: One of the oldest teams in the league needed to get younger and better on D. So what did new GM Kyle Dumas do? He traded for 32 year-old winger Reilly Smith and 33 year-old defenseman Erik Karlsson, quite possibly the worst plus / minus recipient of the Norris trophy ever.

New York Islanders: The shame here is that Ilya Sorokin will be a finalist for the Vezina trophy and he's trapped on a team that will struggle to find offense. Poor Lou Lamoriello; he still thinks it's the '90s.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Since they won their second Cup in a row in '21, they've turned over half their roster. And now they'll be without Andrei Vasilevskiy until mid-December. Not even Toe Blake could save them.

Western Conference:

Central Division:

Colorado Avalanche: Even without Gabriel Landeskog, they are a formidable force to be reckoned with. Nathan MacKinnon is one of the best two-way centers in the league and Cale Makar a perennial Norris trophy candidate. Ryan Johansen and Ross Colton were shrewd pickups by Chris MacFarland. They are well coached and a legit threat to go all the way.

Dallas Stars: I underestimated them last season, as did a lot of people. They're deep and they have one of the best defensemen in the the league in Miro Heiskanen, not to mention one of the best goalies in Jake Oettinger.

Minnesota Wild: G.M. Bill Guerin is doing the best he can with the dead cap hits he was forced to take thanks to his predecessor. They'll be in the mix but a lack of depth will come back to bite them in the end.

Pacific Division: 

Vegas Golden Knights: Boy, do I feel really stupid. Not only did I not have them winning the Cup last season, I didn't even have them making the playoffs. I won't make that mistake again. The secret to Vegas's success is their depth at both forward and defense. They can come with you with four lines and all three of their defense pairings are big and mobile. They are the odds-on favorites to repeat.

Edmonton Oilers: The over / under on Connor McDavid's point total this season is 137.5. Take the over. McDavid is without question the best player in the NHL. Mattias Ekholm - a trade deadline pickup - is a solid, stay at home defenseman, a rarity in Edmonton. The flat salary cap has hindered what G.M. Ken Holland can do to address the lack of depth. Jack Campbell is an adequate, but hardly elite, goalie.

Los Angeles Kings: The Kings are betting that Pierre-Luc Dubois will provide the offensive balance they've been looking for to make them a legit contender. It's a bet that may pay off. With Dubois at center and Kevin Fiala at wing, LA has a potent one-two punch.

Wild Cards:

Seattle Kraken: Were it not for the upset of the Bruins at the hands of the Panthers, the Kraken's upset of the Avalanche would've been the story of the year. In just two short seasons G.M. Ron Francis has done a tremendous job meticulously building a team that last season was one win away from advancing to the conference finals.

Calgary Flames: Now that old blood and guts Darryl Sutter has been shown the door, this team can finally exhale. The Flames have the talent and the goaltending to be a playoff team. They're not in the same class as Vegas or Edmonton or Colorado, but they are much better than what they showed last season.

Close but no cigar:

Winnipeg Jets: Losing Dubois and Blake Wheeler - a buyout - will hinder a team that made the playoffs last season by the skin of its teeth. It's going to be a tough year in Winnipeg.

Playoffs:

Eastern Conference Finals: Rangers over the Maple Leafs 4-3

Western Conference Finals: Avalanche over the Golden Knights 4-3

Stanley Cup Finals: Rangers over the Avalanche 4-3

Year End Awards:

Presidents' Trophy: Colorado Avalanche

Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid, Oilers

Hart Trophy: Matthew Tkachuk, Panthers

Norris Trophy: Miro Heiskanen, Stars

Vezina Trophy: Ilya Sorokin, Islanders

Jack Adams Award: Peter Laviolette, Rangers

Conn Smythe Trophy: Igor Shesterkin, Rangers

NHL Playoff Preview (Round One)

Another regular season is in the books. Now it's on to the real season. Sixteen teams - eight in each conference - begin their pursuit of Lord Stanley's Cup. But unlike last season, when the field was pretty much wide open, this time around there's a front runner. The Boston Bruins - 65-12-5 - not only won the President's Trophy going away, they broke both the single-season points record held by the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens (132) and the single-season wins record held by the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning and the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings (62 each).

But while the Bruins may be the odds-on favorites going into the playoffs, there are a couple of potential roadblocks that could upend their dreams of hoisting the Cup. For starters, the President's Trophy curse. Turns out it's a real thing. 

Since the award was first introduced in the 1985-86 season, only eight teams have won both the Trophy and the Cup. And since the lockout of 2004-05, there have been only two: the 2007-08 Red Wings and the 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks. And the Blackhawks, it should be noted, only had to play 48 regular-season games that season thanks to another league-imposed lockout. The point is it's hard to go at full throttle for an entire 82-game regular season and still have enough left in the tank for another potential 27 grueling postseason games.

But the biggest concern for Boston may have nothing to do with whether or not they have what it takes to survive a nine-month long marathon. The fact is going into the playoffs, the Bruins are the third oldest team in the NHL with an average age of 29.9. Only the Washington Capitals (30) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (31.5) are older. And neither of those two teams qualified for the postseason. If the Bruins were to win the Cup, they'd be the second oldest team in the last 25 years to do so. The 2001-02 Red Wings currently hold the record at 30.5.

So, you see, there's hope for the other fifteen teams after all.

Just as I did last year, I'll start with my team, the New York Rangers, and work my way down. As always, take what is said here with a very large grain of salt.

Eastern Conference:

New York vs. New Jersey: Anybody who saw the Devils as a legit Cup contender prior to the start of the season needs to produce the receipts right now. Yours truly had them as a "close but no cigar" team back in October. Led by Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, the Devils are the fastest team in the East and the third fastest in the league. Only the Edmonton Oilers Oilers and the Colorado Avalanche are faster. They were tied with the Buffalo Sabres for the third most goals scored this season with 291, and their goal differential of 65 was surpassed only by the Dallas Stars (67) and the Bruins (128).

I won't mince words here. This is the toughest opponent the Rangers could've drawn in the first round. Unlike last season, when they faced a flawed Pittsburgh team, the Devils have no discernible flaws to exploit. Meaning they're not likely to implode the way the Pens did. Vitek Vanecek may not be Vezina trophy material, but he's hardly Louis Domingue.

To beat the Devils, the Rangers are going to have to be incredibly disciplined with the puck. No reckless cross-ice passes at the blue line that can be intercepted and turned into scoring chances the other way. No selfless play in the offensive zone. If they have the shot, they must take it and not pass it up. They also can't afford to fall behind in these games. Unlike most teams that score early and then go into defend mode, the Devils are always looking to score the next goal. They have one gear in their transmission box: fifth. In their last meeting, the Rangers trailed 2-0 after the first period, and even though they outplayed the Devils over the final forty minutes, they were unable to get the tying goal passed Vanecek. Getting off to a good start must be priority one.

Priority two will be special teams. During the regular season, the Rangers power play was seventh best in the league at 24.1 percent. And while their penalty kill was only middle of the pack for most of the regular season, over the last 16 games, they've given up only three goals while shorthanded 35 times. Prorated, that would be good enough for second best in the league at 85.7 percent. Only the Bruins at 87.3 percent had a higher percentage.

On paper, this Rangers team is better than the one that went to the conference finals last year and was six wins away from their first Cup championship since 1994. They have, arguably, the deepest roster of any team in the postseason, with 20 plus goal scorers scattered throughout their top nine. They also have the better goaltender in the series. Over his last two months, Igor Shesterkin has posted save percentages of .932 and .941 respectively.

But here's the thing: paper doesn't win playoff series; players do. And to win this series, the Rangers best players - Zibanaejad, Panarin, Fox, Kreider, Shesterkin, Trouba and the Kids - are all going to have to be better than the Devils best players - Hughes, Hischier, Meier, Hamilton, Bratt and Mercer. It's that simple.

One caveat to consider. During the regular season, the Rangers had 13 overtime or shootout loses. Among playoff teams, only the Dallas Stars (14) had more. If just six of those OT / SO losses had been wins, the Rangers would have the home ice advantage in this series. That may or may not come back to haunt them.

That aside, though, I expect this series to go the distance, and it's not being overly cliché to predict that the team that makes the fewest mistakes will likely advance to the next round. Rangers in seven.

Boston vs. Florida: The Puddy Tats had a chance to avoid catching the Bruins in the first round. All they had to do was beat the Carolina Hurricanes at home and they'd be on their way to Raleigh next week. But in typical fashion, they flubbed it. Last season's President's Trophy winner now goes up against the real McCoy. The Bruins had the season of a lifetime. They are loaded at every position, and even if they don't go all the way, they have more than enough to throttle the Panthers. I would be shocked if this went more than five games. Bruins in five.

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay: A month ago I would've bet the ranch on the Bolts. But Kyle Dubas did a great job at the trade deadline transforming the Maple Leafs from a one trick pony into a deeper and tougher team. Ilya Samsonov gives Toronto something they haven't had in years: solid goaltending. And let's be honest, this is not the same Lightning team that went to three consecutive finals and won two Cups in a row. Leafs in six.

Carolina vs. Islanders: Am I being too sarcastic to suggest that watching paint dry would be more entertaining than watching these two offensively-challenged overachievers knocked the shit out of each other for a week and a half? The Isles do have the better goaltending, so that should give them a fighting chance. Not having Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty will eventually catch up with the Canes, but not in this round. Hurricanes in six.

Western Conference:

Vegas vs. Winnipeg: The Golden Knights have proven a lot of skeptics wrong this season - myself included. Without one of their top forwards in Mark Stone and with a revolving door for goaltending, they are the number one seed in the West. Congrats to Bruce Cassidy, who did a helluva job behind the bench. They probably don't have the horses to get past Colorado and Edmonton but they have more than enough to dispose of the Jets. Golden Knights in five.

Colorado vs. Seattle: Not having the services of Gabriel Landeskog for the playoffs will severely test the depth of a team that already lost its number two center Nazem Kadri to the Calgary Flames during the off season. If I were the Avs, I'd be a little concerned about facing a Kraken team that can put the puck in the next and, in only its second year of existence, is playing with house money. Avalanche in seven.

Edmonton vs. Los Angeles: Want to hear something crazy? Over the last seven games, the Oilers have given up a paltry six goals. No that wasn't a misprint. The team with the best offense on Planet Earth has goal's against average of under a goal per game in their last seven. Are we witnessing the beginning of the NHL's next dynasty? Oilers in five.

Dallas vs. Minnesota: Last season, the Stars took the Calgary Flames to a game seven in the first round before finally losing to them in OT. This season, they're one of the best teams in the NHL with a potent offense and a solid defense. The Wild will be without Joel Eriksson Ek for at least the first four games of the series. That maybe four too many. Stars in five.

Once the first round is over, I'll make my predictions for round two.

Rangers Rolling Towards the Playoffs

Sometimes all you can do is sit back and enjoy the show. And what a show it's been.

Over the last two games, the Rangers have shutout the Pittsburgh Penguins and Nashville Predators 6-0 and 7-0 respectively. Remember when we were concerned about this team's ability to jell? Well, guess what? Mission accomplished as far as the jelling is concerned. Just look at these numbers.

K'Andre Miller: 2 goals, 4 assists

Artemi Panarin: 3 goals, 2 assists

Mika Zibanaejad: 2 goals, 3 assists

Jacob Trouba: 1 goal, 3 assists

Vincent Trocheck: 3 assists

Chris Kreider: 2 goals

Vladimir Tarasenko: 1 goal, 1 assist

Filip Chytil: 1 goal, 1 assist

Patrick Kane: 2 assists

Adam Fox: 2 assists

Tyler Motte: 1 goal

Barclay Goodrow: 1 assist

Kaapo Kakko: 1 assist

Jaroslav Halak: 1 assist

As you can see, the scoring was pretty well distributed throughout the roster. Line one had twelve points; line two had seven points; line three had three points; line four had two points; and the defense had a whopping twelve points. Even the goalie had an assist. The three forwards Chris Drury acquired at the trade deadline are making their mark. Tarasenko has five goals and eight assists in nineteen games; Kane has three goals and four assists in nine games; and Motte has two goals and two assists in twelve games. Gerard Gallant has been looking to roll four lines since his arrival. Now he can.

The last time a team scored six plus goals in consecutive shutout wins was 1977 when the Philadelphia Flyers accomplished it. Beginning in the third period of that first home game against the Penguins - a 4-2 win - the Rangers have scored fifteen unanswered goals, the most by a team this season, and the most for the franchise since 1973. When you have to go all the way back to the '70s to find a comparable performance, you've done something pretty damn special.

And speaking of special, going into last night's game, the Rangers had scored power play goals in five of their last seven games, going 6 for 20 over that span for a 30 percent conversion rate. Conversely, they'd killed off 22 out of 24 penalties in their last eight games for a 91.7 percent kill rate. That's about as elite as it gets. FYI: teams that get that kind of performance from their special teams in the playoffs typically go deep.

But as impressive as this recent onslaught was to behold, even more gratifying was the performance in net from Igor Shesterkin and Halak. Both made huge saves early in their respective starts to keep the game scoreless until the offense got going, and later on to preserve the shutout. It cannot be overstated just how critical it is for this team to have both their goaltenders in top form going into the postseason, especially Shesterkin. Put succinctly, they will go only as far as Igor takes them.

It was only a few weeks ago that yours truly was sounding the alarm over last year's Vezina trophy winner. Shesterkin's overall numbers were already off from last season, that was obvious. But since the All-Star break, they've been particularly bad. In February, his goals against average was a season-high 3.71 and his save percentage was a woeful .863. Pucks that he routinely turned away were now getting past him. 

Since the beginning of March, though, his numbers have improved considerably. His GAA is 2.10 and his SV% is .928. Over his last four starts, they've really taken off. He's allowed only six goals on 129 shots for a .953 save percentage. And Halak in his last two starts has allowed only three goals on 57 shots for a .947 save percentage. Now that's what I call a dynamic duo.

Having a reliable backup goaltender, in what promises to be a long and grueling playoff tournament, will give Gallant the option of resting Shesterkin a game or two. Last postseason, he had no choice but to ride his number one goalie pretty much the whole way. This postseason, he'll have Halak in the bullpen should he need him. Among the top teams in the East, only the Boston Bruins have a better tandem.

And now for the sixty-four thousand dollar question. Are the Rangers a legitimate contender? Yes, they are. Mind you, they still have a few kinks to iron out on defense, where they still give up a few too many scoring chances, but I suspect that will improve dramatically once Ryan Lindgren returns; hopefully in the next few games. As of right now, I'd rate them as the second best team in the conference behind only the Bruins. They're better and deeper than last year's team and they have the goaltending to go all the way. 

The Rangers are 6-0-1 in their last seven games, five points behind the New Jersey Devils and six points behind the Carolina Hurricanes. It is not inconceivable that they could catch both teams. They play the Canes in a home and home Tuesday and Thursday, followed by the Florida Panthers Saturday on the road, the Columbus Blue Jackets next Tuesday at the Garden and the Devils the following Thursday in Jersey. A sweep of all five games could potentially catapult them into first place in the Metro division.

Like I said, sometimes all you can do is sit back and enjoy the show.

Supply and Command

"That's why I think Drury isn't going to make a big splash at the trade deadline; not unless the price is just right. And with several more teams looking to improve their playoff fortunes, that scenario might be next to impossible to achieve. Translation, no Patrick Kane or Vladimir Tarasenko." 

- Peter Fegan, February 8, 2023.

Gee, that aged well, didn't it? Less than a month after yours truly predicted Chris Drury wouldn't make any big splashes at the trade deadline, he did the exact opposite - twice! I've already addressed the Tarasenko trade so no need to rehash that. The Kane trade, however, deserves a full-throated mea culpa.

But before I do that, let's get something straight. The idea that acquiring Kane was in the Rangers plan all along is patently absurd. If you seriously believe for a moment that last year's runner up to the Jim Gregory award would allow his head coach to go almost an entire game with only four defensemen available to him and would go through the most bizarre cap gymnastics we've seen in the salary cap era, all as part of some master plan to land arguably the greatest American ever to lace up a pair of skates in the NHL, you must think he's an idiot.

The fact is Kane was never in the Rangers plan. Once the Tarasenko deal was done, Drury moved on to address his fourth line. Reacquiring Tyler Motte from Ottawa with no salary retention was the first step in a two-step process; the second step was likely going to be either Nick Bjugstad or Sam Lafferty. Both players are natural centers and would've allowed Barclay Goodrow to return to the wing where he's better suited. By all accounts, both Drury and Gerard Gallant were fine with Jimmy Vesey on the first line. The fact that Drury made no provisions to take on a large contract is proof that nothing big was imminent.

There's only one reason why Patrick Kane is a Ranger today. He insisted on it. With just days left before the trade deadline, he ostensibly backed his G.M. into a corner. Broadway or bust. And Kyle Davidson, rather than lose him for nothing, wisely chose Broadway. Credit Drury for not ceding the leverage he had. He got Kane without surrendering a first round pick, a single player off his roster or any of his prized prospects. The return haul - a couple of low-level prospects, a conditional '23 second round pick, a '25 fourth rounder, and a '25 third rounder to Arizona for acting as a third-party broker - is less than what he gave up to acquire Andrew Copp a year ago. If that's your idea of an idiot, you need a new dictionary.

But even with all that going for him, Drury still could've said no. Having Bjugstad or Lafferty center the fourth line would've made the Rangers a much better checking team. And make no mistake about it: checking is what wins championships. The Boston Bruins - the runaway Presidents trophy winner - are notoriously good at checking their opponents. While the Rangers may have solidified their top six, the Bruins solidified their bottom six as well as their D by acquiring Garnet Hathaway and Dmitry Orlov. The Tampa Bay Lightning may have overpaid for Tanner Jeannot, but they now have arguably the toughest bottom six in the league, not to mention the best money goaltender in the game.

Let's not kid ourselves. Drury is taking a huge risk here. If these elite players don't jell, if they continue to cough up the puck in their own end, and if Igor Shesterkin doesn't regain his Vezina trophy form, this "all-star" team will be shown the door but fast come playoff time. The New Jersey Devils, by landing Timo Meier, are now considered the favorites to beat the Blueshirts in their first-round matchup.

Look, is this a better team than last year's. In a word, yes. Wouldn't you much rather have Patrick Kane, Vladimir Tarasenko, Vincent Trocheck, Jimmy Vesey and Niko Mikkola than Frank Vatrano, Andrew Copp, Ryan Strome, Ryan Reaves and Justin Braun? Of course you would. But being better on paper is one thing; being better on the ice is quite another. Kane was having an off year before he got hot over his last four games, and Tarasenko hasn't exactly lit up the scoring sheet since his arrival. There's a lot riding on both these former Stanley Cup champions.

This will be Gallant's toughest test as a coach. How well he handles it will go a long way towards determining whether Rangers fans celebrate in June or cry in April.

We Need to Talk About Igor Shesterkin

As a rule, I'm not one to overreact. Being in sales for a quarter century has taught me many things. Chief among them is that things are never as bad or as good as they seem. The truth lies somewhere in between.

Of course, in the Twitterverse, overreaction isn't just par for the course, it's a prerequisite for membership. Seriously, if I had a dollar for every time a Rangers fan lost his shit over Gerard Gallant juggling his lines, or Jacob Trouba taking a stupid penalty, or Artemi Panarin having another one of his ill-advised cross-ice passes intercepted, my wife and I would have enough money for a one-week stay at the Halekulani in Waikiki. Referring to Twitter as a social media platform is the very definition of an oxymoron.

That being said, we need to talk about Igor Shesterkin. Last season's Vezina trophy winner is clearly in a slump. His save percentage in February is an ominous .865. To put that in perspective, in all of 2022-23, the lowest save percentage he posted was .916 in March. In fact, if we're truly being honest here, Igor is having an off year compared to what he did last season. Let's break it down, shall we?

Season 2021-22 2022-23 Mo. GAA / SV % GAA / SV % Oct   1.70 / .947 2.55 / .913 Nov 2.67 / .920 2.60 / .912 Dec 2.11 / .929 2.14 / .927 Jan 1.86 / .947 2.62 / .916 Feb 1.31 / .959 3.54 / .865 Mar 2.68 / .916 Apr 1.90 / .930 Average 2.07 / .935 2.59 / .912

The numbers don't lie. As I wrote back in November, Shesterkin "just hasn't lived up to his billing." The incredible saves he was famous for making last season have now become the questionable goals he's allowing this season. Monday night against the Winnipeg Jets he was outclassed by Connor Hellebuyck, who turned away 50 of 51 shots, while Igor gave up four goals on only 21 shots, three of which should've been stopped. Against the Edmonton Oilers, he surrendered four first-period goals. It was obvious he was having trouble picking up the puck. The Rangers eventually came from behind to win the game in the shootout. And against the Vancouver Canucks, he got beat on what looked like an innocuous third-period shot that turned what should've been an easy win into a nail biter.

The fact is Shesterkin has had too many games like that; games when he failed to come up with the one clutch save his teammates needed him to make. It's not that he's been terrible; it's just that he hasn't been the Igor we all know and love. And for a team that gives up a lot of high-danger scoring chances, that's a problem. Last season, the Rangers advanced to the Eastern Conference finals primarily due to Shesterkin's brilliance in net. If this month's Shesterkin shows up in the playoffs, the Rangers will be lucky to win one game, much less two rounds.

Going into action today, the top five goaltenders in the NHL by save percentage with at least 30 starts are 1. Linus Ullmark, Boston (.937); 2. Jake Oettinger, Dallas (.927); 3. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg (.926); 4. Ilya Sorokin, Islanders (.924); and Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa (.919). Shesterkin (.912) is number 12 on that list. No, that wasn't a typo. Igor Shesterkin, last season's best save percentage goalie, isn't even in the top ten this season.

If you're not concerned, you should be. Chris Drury has done a masterful job assembling what many consider to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. The additions of Vladimir Tarasenko and Tyler Motte have made this team deeper and tougher to play against. But no amount of tweaking can overcome substandard goaltending.

The good news is there's still plenty of time for Shesterkin to find his game. The postseason doesn't start for another seven weeks. Additionally, four of the Rangers next five games are against non-playoff teams. So long as they continue to generate scoring chances the way they've been doing this month, they should be okay.

Rangers are Running Out of Time to Right Ship

This is getting serious now. This is no mere slump. Twenty-three games into the season and if the playoffs were to start tomorrow, the Rangers would be on the outside looking in. Incredible, isn't it? Last year a conference finalist; this year eliminated from the postseason.

So what's wrong? I believe it comes to three things.

Igor Shesterkin: Let's face it, last year's Vezina trophy winner just hasn't lived up to his billing. While he's been good, and at times very good, he has yet to steal a game this season. Even in the one shutout he posted against the Flyers, it was Carter Hart who wound up stealing a point, keeping the Blueshirts off the scoreboard until Chris Kreider beat him on a breakaway in OT. 

Pucks that were once routinely turned aside, are now finding their way in the back of the net. Shesterkin has allowed a questionable goal in each his last two starts: the game-tying goal against the Oilers and the go-ahead goal against the Devils. Had last year's Igor been in net, the Rangers likely would've won both games instead of losing them.

Inconsistent play: Too often this season, the Rangers have made middling goalies look like all stars. Including the Flyers game, on five separate occasions, the Rangers have been stymied by the opposing goalie. Despite outshooting the Devils 17-4 in the third period of Monday night's loss, all they could muster was one goal - a power play tally by Vincent Trocheck off a rebound with six minutes to go.

It has been perplexing to say the least to see a team with so much elite-level talent, a team that has been averaging 30 plus shots per game, unable to get its offense untracked. Indeed, if you take away the 8-2 romp they had over the Red Wings in Detroit, only twice this month have the Rangers scored more than three goals in a game, and that was against the lowly Coyotes (4) and the Kings (5). Either they get off to a good start and take their foot off the accelerator, or they fall behind early and can't catch up.

A large part of the inconsistency has been the power play. In a word, it's become predictable as dirt. Fox passes to Panarin on right wing, Panarin finds Zibanejad with a cross-ice pass, and Zibanejad buries a one timer past the goalie. Perfect, right? Except every team in the league with a scouting department worth a damn knows that cross-ice pass to Zibanejad is coming and they're breaking it up. As a result, the Rangers have gone 4 for 28 (14.2 percent) on the power play over their last eight games.

But the bulk of the inconsistency is owed directly to a lack of effort. By my count, the Rangers have had a total of three games in which they've played a solid sixty minutes: the 3-1 season opener win against the Lightning, the 3-2 OT loss to the Avalanche and the 1-0 OT shutout against the Flyers. That's it. Three games out of twenty-three. That's not good enough to even qualify for the playoffs, much less win the Stanley Cup.

Lack of toughness: Did you see it? I'm sure you did. Seconds after Leon Draisaitl put the Oilers ahead 4-3 late in the third period, he skated by Jacob Trouba and knocked the defenseman's stick out of his hands. If that had happened last season, Draisaitl would've been challenged immediately, if not by Trouba, then certainly by someone else. No way that shit would've gone unanswered. Excuses like they didn't want to take a penalty and ruin any chance of tying the game just aren't cutting it.

By now, every team in the NHL has gotten a hold of that video and I guarantee you they're taking notes. The team that last season stood up for each other now looks more like the team David Quinn coached in 2020-21. And we all know how that ended: A .500 team that got run out of every rink in the league. Of all the problems besetting this team, this is the one that, if not corrected, will sink the season. The offense will finally break through; Igor will rediscover his game; but a spine is something a team either has or it doesn't have. There's no in-between.

Bottom line, time is running out on the Rangers. This isn't last season when we knew who the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference were and the only question was the seating. This season there are approximately ten teams - eleven if you count the Capitals - that will be jockeying for eight playoff spots. At the rate they're going, the Rangers are going to run out of runway soon.

If this team is going to turn the season around, it had better start before it's too late.

Rangers Have the Opportunity of a Lifetime

The Rangers took care of business Saturday night. After their "tired" performance in game five, in which they managed a paltry 17 shots on goal, they limped out of Raleigh on life support. A loss at the Garden meant their season would be over. So they summoned what resiliency they had left and beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-2.

Don't be fooled by the score. The Blueshirts got two soft goals in the first period off Antti Raanta, who was lifted after Filip Chytil went top shelf on him early in the second. The Canes outshot the Rangers in every period and had the better scoring chances. If Igor Shesterkin had been playing for Rod Brind'Amour last night, this series would be over and we'd be talking about the 2022-23 season.

And now they hit the road, where they are 1-5, to play a team that is 7-0 at home, for the right to play the two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference finals. The Rangers are 4-0 in elimination games, so theoretically a win is possible. But in the three games they've played in Raleigh so far, this resilient team has managed exactly two goals, one off a turnover in game one and the other on a power play in game five. Sadly, the Rangers have given zero evidence that they are capable of mustering the kind of sixty-minute effort it would take to advance and every indication that when the final buzzer sounds Monday night, they and not the Canes will be the ones headed home.

So why am I cautiously optimistic about their chances? Two reasons and they both have to with who's in goal. The fact is Igor Shesterkin doesn't play for Rod Brind'Amour; he plays for Gerard Gallant, which means that any game he suits up for is a game he is capable of winning, er, stealing. Ask Mike Sullivan what he thinks about Shesterkin. The Pittsburgh Penguins threw the kitchen sink at him in the third period of game seven and couldn't beat him. Anybody else in that net and Artemi Panarin doesn't get to score that power play goal in overtime.

As for Antti Raanta, he's starting to show why he's been a backup goaltender his entire career. There was simply no excuse for that performance in the first period. He whiffed on a shot by Tyler Motte and was cleanly beaten five hole by Mika Zibanaejad. Igor would've stopped those shots; in fact, any half-way competent net minder would've stopped them. His body language after getting pulled by Brind'Amour was all you needed to know. I'm telling you he's teetering and if the Rangers are smart, they will make the most of the opportunity the hockey gods have bestowed upon them.

Despite getting thoroughly outplayed and outshot in game five, the Canes only had a one-goal lead with just over seven minutes to go in the third period, and if Adam Fox handles that loose puck at center ice instead of muffing it, who knows what might've happened? 

Now imagine if the Rangers manage to establish even a modest forecheck Monday night. Let's say they get a "soft" goal on Raanta early, the score is tied at two late in the third and Carolina gets called for a penalty. Now imagine a one-timer by Zibanejad with just under two minutes left.

You might be thinking that's quite an active imagination you have there, Peter. To be fair, it is far fetched. But here's the thing: with six minutes to go in the third period of game seven against the Pens, the Rangers were trailing by a goal and looked for all the world like they were done. Then all of a sudden, Andrew Copp wrestled a puck out of the corner and fed Zibanejad for the tying goal. You know the rest.

This entire season, the Rangers have confounded the so-called analytics experts. Their ability to stare death in the face and come away unscathed has paid huge dividends. Of course, it doesn't exactly hurt that they have the presumptive Vezina trophy winner playing for them. Consider that not once in these playoffs have they led in a series. They trailed the Pens 1-0 and 3-1 before coming back; they trailed the Canes 2-0 and 3-2 before coming back. They seem to relish being the underdog; it has served them well.

With all the talk about how the Rangers have had a difficult time playing a full sixty minutes, it's not like the Hurricanes have dominated this series. Games one and two could easily have gone either way; they got outplayed in game four and they were downright sloppy in game six. Yes, they're 7-0 at home in the postseason, but the problem with going to the well that many times is that sooner or later your bucket comes up dry.

Bottom line, yes the Rangers can win game seven, but to do so, they will have to play considerably better than they did in game five. They are going to have to manage the puck well, avoid turnovers at center ice, and get the puck in deep. Shesterkin will keep them in the game as long as he can, just like he has done throughout the playoffs, but the Rangers will have to meet him half way.

They have the talent, now they have to find the will.

Playing Not To Lose Is No Way To Win

Well at least Igor Shesterkin's save percentage is looking good. In the first two games of the Rangers' best of seven series against the Carolina Hurricanes, the presumptive Vezina trophy winner has a .923 and a .952 save percentage respectively.

That was pretty much it for the good news. In six periods of hockey, the Rangers have managed to score exactly one goal and generate a total of eight high-percentage scoring chances. To put that in perspective, in the first two games of the Pittsburgh Penguins series, the Rangers scored eight goals and generated twenty-two high-percentage scoring chances. 

So what's responsible for the power outage? Certainly the opponent has had something to do with it. Let's face it, despite the marque talent on their roster, the Pens aren't exactly the defensive stalwarts the Canes are. Head coach Rod Brind'Amour has his team firing on all cylinders. As I wrote in an earlier piece, "they are a better, younger version of last year's Islanders."

But there might be another reason for why the Rangers offense has been so anemic in this series, and it may have something to do with the results of their four regular season meetings. If you recall, the Blueshirts went 1-3 against Carolina; their lone win was a 2-0 shutout, courtesy of Alexandar Georgiev stopping 44 shots. But it was their first meeting back in January in which the Hurricanes ran circles around them on their way to a 6-3 rout that might be screwing with their heads at this moment. It is quite possible that the coaching staff and players have concluded that the best chance they have of winning this series, or at least avoiding getting embarrassed, is to play risk free hockey, capitalize on the rare mistake, and let Igor do his thing.

For 57 and a half minutes in game one, that strategy looked as if it might work. Alexis Lafreniere intercepted a Tony DeAngelo errant pass, skated into the offensive zone and fed Filip Chytil for the one timer. 1-0 Rangers after one. And it stayed that way until the third when Sebastian Aho picked up his own rebound and put it past Shesterkin at 17:37 to tie the game. We all know what happened in OT, so let's not rehash that.

The bottom line is that the Rangers find themselves in an 0-2 hole because they've talked themselves into believing that if they open things up against a team as quick as the Hurricanes, they'll be sliced to ribbons. That might be the case, but putting a leash on players like Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox, Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin is the equivalent of hoisting up a white flag. You get no brownie points for losing 2-1 and 2-0. Playing not to lose virtually guarantees you will. Ask any football coach what employing the prevent defense did for his team. The annals of sports history are replete with examples of over cautious teams that thought they could run out the clock on their opponents. Few, if any, succeeded.

When the Rangers take the ice Sunday afternoon for game three of this series, they must do everything within their power to generate some offense. If that means that head coach Gerard Gallant has to mix up his lines to do so, then do it. For a team with this much firepower to be held to only one goal after two games is unacceptable. That the Kid line is the only line generating anything resembling a forecheck in this seres is something that should raise eyebrows within the dressing room.

Panarin spoke of not wanting to do "some stupid shit" with the puck, but there is a huge difference between being reckless with the puck and being timid. And right now, Panarin and his line mates look timid. Worse, they look indecisive. That was painfully obvious during a four-minute power play late in the second period, when Fox, pinching to try and keep the puck in the offensive zone, got caught on an odd-man rush that resulted in a short-handed goal by, of all people, Brendan Smith: the only Ranger who stood up to Tom Wilson last year. Irony abounds.

If the Rangers have any hope of getting back into this series, Panarin must be the player he was during the regular season when he finished fourth in the NHL in assists. When he's on his game, he's one of the best playmakers in the league. Is there a risk that one of those cross-ice passes could wind up in the back of their own net? Of course there is. But the Rangers aren't paying him $11 million a year to play like Tyler Motte or Barclay Goodrow, and asking him to do so now, with the season on the line, makes absolutely no sense.

If this is some sort of master plan by Gallant and company to lull the Hurricanes into a false sense of security, it isn't working. Brind'Amour could care less whether his team wins 2-1 or 5-4. A win is a win. To borrow a baseball parlance, they all look like line drives in the box score.

Look, the Rangers are who they are. It's the reason they won 52 games during the regular season and it's also the reason they were able to beat the Penguins in the first round. Should they go down swinging against an admittedly superior Hurricanes team, they can at least hold their heads up high knowing they gave it their best shot. But if they go out with a whimper, the way they've done so far in these first two games, it could have long-lasting repercussions for the core of this team. Chris Drury is trying to mold the Rangers into the image of the Tampa Bay Lightning. But before the Lightning could learn how to win, they had to first learn how to lose. Before they stopped doing "some stupid shit" with the puck they first had to do "some stupid shit" with the puck.

Translation, Gallant has to let his players off the leash. Will it work? Probably not. Sadly, the Hurricanes are just too good. But it will give the fans something to cheer for these next two games at the Garden. Who knows, if they can get the power play going, maybe they can extend the series to six games. Absent that, we're looking at a four-game sweep with the boo birds out in full force Tuesday evening.

Before we got married, my wife had this plaque that hung on her bedroom wall that read, "Ships are safe in the harbor, but ships were never meant to stay in the harbor."

Words to live - or die - by.