Panthers Provide a Blueprint for the NHL

Sam Bennett won the Conn Smythe trophy for most valuable player in the NHL playoffs. It was well earned. Bennett led the Florida Panthers with 15 goals and 22 points in 23 postseason games. He was by far the most consistent player for his team, and whether he stays in South Florida or goes elsewhere this summer, he will be richly and justly rewarded with his next contract.

But the one trophy that has yet to be awarded is the Jim Gregory award for top executive of the year. If anyone other than Bill Zito wins it, there oughta be an investigation. The job he has done transforming the Panthers from a middling team into a dynasty should be a blueprint for every general manager in the league, including a certain individual currently employed at 4 Penn Plaza.

Since he was hired in 2020, Zito has signed or traded for Sam Bennett (C) and Matthew Tkachuk (LW) from the Calgary Flames, Sam Reinhart (RW) from the Buffalo Sabres, Carter Verhaeghe (LW) from the Tampa Bay Lightning, Evan Rodrigues (LW) from the Colorado Avalanche, Niko Mikkola (D) from the New York Rangers, Gustav Forsling (D) and Seth Jones (D) from the Chicago Blackhawks, Eetu Luostarinen (LW) from the Carolina Hurricanes, Brad Marchand (RW) and Jesper Boqvist (C) from the Boston Bruins, Tomas Nosek (C) from the New Jersey Devils, and Nate Schmidt (D) and Paul Maurice (coach) from the Winnipeg Jets. In short, more than half of the Stanley Cup winning team came from elsewhere.

In a sport that defines success by how many home-grown players a team has, the Panthers are a text-book example of how to shop wisely. No organization does it better. Just look at their top nine:

Verhaeghe - Alesander Barkov - Reinhart

Rodrigues - Bennett - Tkachuk 

Luostarinen - Anton Lundell - Marchand 

Only Barkov and Lundell were drafted by the Panthers. That's it. Everyone else came from outside the organization.

Zito is not the first GM to build a championship team mostly through trades. In the 1990s, Neil Smith broke a Rangers 54 year Cup drought by importing Adam Graves, Jeff Beukaboom, Mark Messier, Esa Tikkanen, Kevin Lowe, Steve Larmer, Stephan Matteau, Brian Noonan, Craig MacTavish, Glenn Anderson, Doug Lidster and Glenn Healy. What is remarkable is that he's managed to do it in the cap era where general managers routinely pull their hair out trying to field a competitive roster and still stay cap compliant. 

His secret sauce has been the way he's managed the cap. Like Julien BriseBois of the Tampa Bay Lightning before him, Zito has not signed one player to a contract with an AAV higher than $10 million. What this means is that he has the cap space needed to fill out his roster with solid bottom six players while some teams struggle to assemble a top six.

For example, the Panthers cap hit for Barkov, Tkachuk, Reinhart, Verhaeghe and Bobrovsky comes to $45.1 million. The Edmonton Oilers cap hit for just Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid is $26.5 million. There's no doubt that both these players are among the best in the NHL, but you have to ask yourself whether any hockey team can win a Stanley Cup with so much salary tied up in two players. And keep in mind, McDavid will be a UFA after the 2025-26 season. His next contract could well have an AAV of $17 million or higher. Even with the salary cap expected to go up to $104m in 2026 and $113m in 2027, the Oilers might be better off borrowing a page from the Panthers playbook and moving on.

Indeed, five of the last six Stanley Cup winners - the Lightning twice, the Vegas Golden Knights once and the Panthers twice - do not have a single player with an AAV over $10 million. Meanwhile, the team with the most front-loaded roster in the league - the Toronto Maple Leafs - have made it to the second round twice in the last eight seasons. That cannot be a coincidence.

What it tells us is that having the best player in a series is no guarantee of success. Indeed, it's almost a curse. If I were the GM of a team with Cup aspirations, I would emulate what Zito and BriseBois have done with their respective teams. Both have stumbled on to something; something that most fans don't understand. You don't need world-class talent to win in today's NHL. What you need is depth and solid goaltending. The Oilers had neither in these finals, and it showed.

Call me "delusional," or any name you want, but I don't think the hockey fans in South Florida care in the slightest that number 97 doesn't play for their team. They have two Cups, and the last time I checked, that's two more than the Oilers have won in this century.

Come to think of it, it's one more than the Rangers have won since World War II.

Ouch!

2024-25 NHL Predictions

If there's one thing every hockey fan can agree on, it's that their favorite team will have a great year. While listening to the NHL Network the other day, an Ottawa Senators fan called in to say that he thought they were going to have a breakout season and wind up with 100 points. I credit the host with not laughing his ass off the air.

That being said, there are basically three types of teams in every professional sports league: those that are at or near the top, those that are on the rise, and those that are on the way down. As always, yours truly will provide his "expert" opinion as to which is which. I apologize for being a bit late here; my wife and I were in Italy for our 30th anniversary.

Normally, I do a separate preview for the Rangers. But this year, I'll combine both into one piece. And like I've done in the past three previews, I'll pick the top three teams in each division, then pick the two wild cards per conference, and then finish with the "close but no cigar" contingent.

Remember, it's all done in fun.

Eastern Conference:

Metropolitan Division: 

New York Rangers: The 2023-24 Presidents' Trophy winner dumped Barclay Goodrow's salary, but other than that this remains ostensibly the same roster as last season, which despite an impatient and frustrated fanbase, is a pretty good thing. Let's face it, the Florida Panthers were the worst opponent they could've gone up against. Any other opponent and we're talking at least a Cup final appearance. But when you look at them objectively - two conference finals in three years - they remain one of the premier teams in the NHL. Alexis Lafreniere is on the verge of stardom, and with Igor Shesterkin in goal, they are always a threat.

New Jersey Devils: GM Tom Fitzgerald finally got himself a goaltender that can stop the puck and he addressed the backline as well, which should help immensely. But the biggest challenge new head coach Sheldon Keefe will have is to get this talented, but still very young, group of players to commit to playing in all three zones. To be honest, Keefe didn't exactly do a bang-up job in Toronto; in five years, the Maple Leafs won just one playoff series. But he is an improvement over Lindy Ruff.

Carolina Hurricanes: The Canes had a rough offseason, losing Jake Guentzel, Brett Pesce and Teuvo Teravainen, and they still don't have an elite goalie. But detractors would be foolish to sleep on any team coached by Rod Brind'Amour. They may not be as good as they were the last three seasons but they will still be a tough team to play against. Dismiss them at your own peril.

Atlantic Division:

Florida Panthers: Losing Brandon Montour to free agency will hurt, but this remains one of the best and deepest cores in the league. They check like no one's business and with Sergei Bobrovsky in net, they should be favorites to repeat as Cup champs. 

Toronto Maple Leafs: Talent was never the problem in Toronto; it was will. Craig Berube should be able to address the latter. He coached a St. Louis Blues team with slightly above average talent to a Stanley Cup in 2019. But can he get this all-star team to buy in? That's the question. 

Boston Bruins: Getting Jeremy Swayman locked up for 8 years means that whatever else happens in Beantown, the Bruins will at least have great goaltending. They're not nearly as deep as the other teams in their division, but when it comes to work ethic, few teams can rival them.

Wild Cards:

Tampa Bay Lightning: The Bolts had an interesting summer. First they traded one of their best defensemen to Utah; then they let Steven Stamkos go to Nashville so that they could sign Jake Guentzel as his replacement. You figure it out. Jon Cooper will have his work cut out for him this season. But so long as they have Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy, they'll never be out of it.

Detroit Red Wings: They barely missed the playoffs last season. This time around, they'll sneak in. In year six of his tenure, GM Steve Yzerman has assembled a good roster that is close to being a contender.

Close, but no cigar:

Washington Capitals: The Caps are counting on Pierre-Luc Dubois to rediscover whatever it was that made him one of the hottest commodities in the NHL. I'm guessing they'll regret trading for him. I wonder how Charlie Lindgren would look in a Rangers uniform.

New York Islanders: Did you hear? Apparently, Anthony Duclair is Mike Bossy incarnate. As a lifetime member of the "I Hate the Islanders" club, I'm really gonna enjoy watching the final stages of the Lou Lamoriello demolition derby.

Pittsburgh Penguins: If ever there was a franchise that hasn't gotten the memo, it's this one. It's going to be a very long season in western Pennsylvania. 

Western Conference:

Central Divison:

Nashville Predators: Barry Trotz won the offseason, big time, signing Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei. As a result, the Preds will be one of the best teams in the NHL. And to think, before Lou Lamoriello fired him, Trotz was the last coach to take the Isles to the conference finals.

Dallas Stars: The Stars will miss Joe Pavelski, but there's plenty of fire power on this talent-laden team to take up the slack. Jake Oettinger is one of the best goaltenders in the league and head coach Peter DeBoer will have his team near the top of the pack again. 

Colorado Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen are three of the best players in the league, but this is a team that believes it can win on talent alone. The last two seasons that formula hasn't been good enough to get them past the second round. One wonders whether they still have the hunger that won them the Cup in 2022.

Pacific Division:

Vegas Golden Knights: Basically, they replaced Jonathan Marchessault with Tomas Hertl. Talent wise, the Knights do not impress on paper. But on the ice, their secret sauce is an aggressive forecheck and a balanced attack. Their defense is big but mobile. They struggled last season which led to them being a wild card team; I doubt they'll make that same mistake again this season.

Edmonton Oilers: Head coach Kris Knoblauch did the impossible last season. He got a very talented group of players unaccustomed to hard work to roll up its sleeves and break a sweat. The result was the first trip by an Oilers team to the Cup finals since 2006, and had it not been for the Panthers, they would've won their first Stanley Cup since 1990. The only question remaining is whether Knoblauch's system has taken root in the locker room or whether last year was a one off.

Vancouver Canucks: For most of last season, Vancouver flirted with the Presidents' Trophy. And if Thatcher Demko hadn't gotten injured in the playoffs they might've gone all the way. Fully healthy, this is as solid a team as there is in the NHL. Led by J.T. Miller and Quinn Hughes, they are well coached by Rick Tocchet.

Wild Cards:

Los Angeles Kings: They were fortunate to find someone to take Pierre-Luc Dubois off their hands - call it addition by subtraction. But while they'll make the playoffs, they don't have enough talent to climb into the first tier in their division. 

Winnipeg Jets: In retrospect, it should've come as no surprise how quickly the Jets came apart at the hands of the Avalanche. The fact is, they were paper tigers. They should sneak in this season as a wild card but they don't belong among the elite in the league.

Close but no cigar:

Minnesota Wild: The good news for GM Bill Guerin is that starting in the 2025-26 season, the buyouts for Zach Parise and Ryan Suter will mostly come off the books; the bad news is that won't help him assemble a playoff roster this season.

Utah Hockey Club: This ain't your Arizona Coyotes team anymore. Under new ownership and management they were very active during the offseason. Snatching Mikhail Sergachev from the Lightning was the coup of the decade. Still, while they will be a lot more entertaining, they still a ways to go before they become a playoff team.

Playoffs:

Eastern Conference Finals: Rangers over Maple Leafs 4-3

Western Conference Finals: Golden Knights over Predators: 4-2

Stanley Cup Finals: Rangers over Golden Knights 4-2

Year End Awards:

Presidents' Trophy: Florida Panthers

Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid, Oilers

Hart Trophy: Matthew Tkachuk, Panthers

Norris Trophy: Adam Fox, Rangers

Vezina Trophy: Juuso Saros, Predators

Jack Adams Award: Paul Maurice, Panthers 

Conn Smythe Trophy: Igor Shesterkin, Rangers

NHL Playoff Preview (Round One)

One of the most memorable regular seasons in years has finally come to an end. The last few days were particularly exciting, with the final Wild Card spot and seedings in both conferences not decided until game 82. Now comes the hard part: the playoffs, where the rubber meets the road.

Last season, I went 5-3 in the first round, which given how bad my regular season predictions were - I actually had the Seattle Kraken, Calgary Flames, Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators all making the playoffs this season - is nothing short of miraculous. 

Just like I did last time, I will start with the New York Rangers, then work my way down by conference. And again I feel compelled to remind everyone to take these predictions with a grain of salt. If my wealth were dependent on my prowess as a prognosticator, I'd be living in a box. Nostradamus I ain't.

Eastern Conference:

Rangers vs. Washington: This year's Presidents' trophy winner goes up against a team that finished the regular season with a minus 37 goal differential. The Rangers finished the regular season with a franchise record 55 wins and 114 points. With the exception of January, they were the lead dog pretty much from mid-October.

On paper, this series shouldn't be close. The stats tell a story of two very different teams. Alex Ovechkin led the Caps with 31 goals; Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider led the Rangers with 49 and 39 goals respectively. New York has two centers with more than 70 points a piece; Washington doesn't have any. Panarin led the Rangers in scoring with 120 points; Dylan Strome had 67 for the Caps. The Rangers defense was 4th in the NHL in scoring with 201 points; the Caps were 25th with 135. I could go on.

But as we know all too well, series aren't decided on paper; they're decided on the rink. And if you look carefully under the hood there are some things that should concern the Blueshirts.

Since the All-Star Break, the Caps have the number one power play in the NHL at 28.9 percent. The Rangers are 4th at 25.3 percent. For a team that relies heavily on its ability to score with the man advantage, that's not exactly good news. Fortunately, New York's penalty kill is much better than Washington's: 87.1 percent (2nd) to 77.8 percent (13th) over that stretch.

Then there's the goaltending. Since March 1, both Igor Shesterkin and Charlie Lindgren - Ryan's brother - have identical .916 save percentages and three shutouts. What this means is that yet another advantage the Rangers were hoping to capitalize on will be neutralized.

Last, but not least, there's that old bugaboo that has plagued the Rangers for years: their propensity to play down to the level of their opponent. If it should rear its ugly head in this series, this will be the worst offseason in franchise history, and that includes last year when they were dispatched by the New Jersey Devils. More than ever, this team must ignore the standings and treat the Caps as if they were the Colorado Avalanche.

To prevail, the Rangers must do three things: 1. Play with the lead. Coming from behind against a team that won its last two games 2-0 and 2-1 is playing with fire; 2. Exploit Washington's lack of speed by playing an uptempo game. The Caps may be bigger, but the Rangers are faster; 3. Avoid turnovers at the blue line, especially in the 3rd period. In what promises to be a low-scoring series, every mistake has the potential to be costly.

In the end, the Rangers are the far better team. They have the depth and skill to dispense with the Capitals. If Filip Chytil is able to play and Peter Laviolette decides to dress him, that will give the Blueshirts yet another weapon at their disposal. But this will hardly be a cake walk. Those predicting a sweep are likely to be disappointed. Rangers in six.

Carolina vs. Islanders: For the second straight season these two teams will meet in the first round. Last year, the Hurricanes won in six. But that Canes team didn't have Jake Guentzel, who since his arrival from Pittsburgh has 7 goals and 18 assists in 17 games. This Isles team is actually deeper offensively than last year's team but not nearly as good defensively, especially against the power play where they rank near the bottom of the league. Patrick Roy's group will put up a fight, but they will come up short. Hurricanes in six.

Florida vs. Tampa Bay: Two years ago, the Bolts swept the Puddy Tats in the second round on their way to a third consecutive Stanley Cup finals appearance. Since then, the Panthers have retooled and are a much tougher team to play against. Last year, they made it all the way to Cup finals before losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. Throughout most of this season, they flirted with the best record in the league. By contrast, Tampa has turned over 50 percent of its roster and has looked nothing like those championship teams. The tables have finally turned in the Sunshine State. Panthers in six.

Boston vs. Toronto: One of these years the Maple Leafs will hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. But it won't be this year. Even after losing their top two centers to retirement over the summer, the Bruins are the better team in this matchup. It isn't just that they went 4-0 against the Leafs during the regular season; it's that their forte is checking, which is the Achilles heel of the Leafs, a roster that more closely resembles an All-Star team than a Cup contender. 1967 is fast becoming the new 1940. Bruins in six.

Western Conference:

Dallas vs. Vegas: The Golden Knights will regret not winning their last regular season game. That's because had they done so, they would've avoided playing the Stars, who finished the regular season 12-2-0 and pound for pound are the deepest, most balanced team in the NHL. There are no superstars on this roster; just a relentless group of forwards and defensemen who play the game the way it was meant to be played. And they've got the goaltending to go all the way. Stars in six.

Vancouver vs. Nashville: With all due respect to Peter Laviolette, Rick Tocchet deserves the Jack Adams Award. Since replacing Bruce Boudreau behind the bench midway through last season, the Canucks are 70-35-13. That's a .648 winning percentage. If Thatcher Demko is healthy, they will make a deep run in the postseason. Canucks in six.

Winnipeg vs. Colorado: Talk about a dichotomy. The number one defense in the NHL pitted against the number one offense. The Jets will have the likely Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck in net, while the Avs will have Alexandar Georgiev. Nuff said. Nathan MacKinnon may have to settle for winning the Hart Trophy this season. Jets in six.

Edmonton vs. Los Angeles: For the third consecutive year, these two teams will meet in the playoffs, with the Oilers having won the last two. Kris Knoblauch's greatest accomplishment since taking over for Jay Woodcroft wasn't getting the Oilers back on the winning track. They had more than enough talent to do that on their own. It was getting them to commit to playing defense. The results speak for themselves. Edmonton gave up the 10th fewest goals in the league. The Kings' 1-3-1 system will slow down the Oilers high-powered offense a bit, but it won't be able to stop it. Oilers in six.

Assuming the Rangers win their series, I'll do the next round once this one is over.

The One Thing That Could Trip Up the Rangers

It's no secret that the New York Rangers are hardly a powerhouse when it comes to their even-strength play. Words like "pedestrian" and "ordinary" describe a team that is "23rd in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 (48.6%) through 78 games and slightly underwater on percentage of shot attempts per 60 minutes (49.8%), ranking 19th overall." And it's certainly no secret that their power play and goaltending will be keys to whatever success they hope to have in the postseason.

But while the analytic community may be split as to whether the Rangers are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, there is another, far bigger threat that could trip up this team once the playoffs begin. Over their last 13 games, the Rangers have surrendered the first goal ten times. In half of those games, the deficit has been two or more goals.

Tuesday night at UBS Arena, the Rangers got off to yet another slow start and struggled to establish themselves in the first 20 minutes of play. The Islanders took full advantage, scoring the game's first 3 goals. It would've been more had Igor Shesterkin not made several brilliant saves. When the Rangers finally woke up, they dominated the Isles the rest of the way, scoring two power play goals in the second period and registering the first 10 shots on goal in the third. Unfortunately for the Blueshirts, their rally fell short and they lost 4-2.

Not every slow start has led to a loss. Against the Pittsburgh Penguins (3/16), the Boston Bruins (3/21), the Florida Panthers (3/23) the Philadelphia Flyers (3/26), the Colorado Avalanche (3/28), and the Montreal Canadiens (4/7) the Rangers were successfully able to overcome their sluggish start and win. Indeed, the Rangers lead the NHL with 27 come-from-behind victories; 13 of them came when they were trailing going into the third period.

And therein lies the problem. It’s one thing to play from behind and not get burned during the regular season; it’s quite another to do it in the playoffs. The Rangers are playing with fire if they think they can make a deep run in the postseason by adopting this strategy. Maybe they beat the Islanders or the Capitals in a seven-game series playing like that, but good luck beating the Carolina Hurricanes. This season, the Rangers were 2-1 against the Canes. Both times they won, they played with the lead; the one time they didn't, they trailed early.

The simple truth is that the teams which represent the biggest challenge to the Rangers on their road to the Stanley Cup will not be so easy to come from behind against once the postseason begins. Even the Bruins, a team the Rangers went 3-0 against, will eat them alive if they don't snap out of this funk.

Priority number one for Peter Laviolette and his coaching staff will be to convince this very talented team to show up on time and play a full 60 minutes. These inexplicable slow starts must stop, and stop now. He must light a fire under his players while there is still time. 

The good news is that the Rangers have, for the most part, responded positively to what their head coach has preached. From day one, the emphasis has been on structure and puck management. They've been the cornerstones of their success all season long. It's the principle reason why, with the exception of January, they've been among the best teams in the league, and are currently on the verge of winning their first Presidents' Trophy since 2015.

Two years ago, the Rangers trailed the Penguins 3-1 in the first round. They won the next three games; the last one coming in overtime at the Garden. In the next round, they trailed the Hurricanes 2-0 before winning 4 of the next 5 games. In both series, they beat the odds to prevail. 

If the Rangers know what's good for them, they will do everything in their power to avoid tempting the hand of fate again.

Exploring Drury's Trade Deadline Options

With the news that the New York Rangers are shutting down Filip Chytil for the remainder of the season after the center had a significant setback during practice, we pretty much know how much cap space Chris Drury will have to work with at the trade deadline. And that amount is $5.2 million.

Not exactly a king's ransom, but more than enough to acquire two or three players depending on how creative Drury wants to get. And if history is any indication, creativity is a trait the Rangers President and General Manager has never lacked. If there's a way to improve this lineup going into the playoffs, you can bet the ranch Drury will do it.

Of course, there are those who openly question whether this team is worth investing any more future assets. Let's be honest, January was a brutal month. It wasn't just that the Rangers lost nine out of 14 games, it was the manner in which they lost some of those games: 6-1 to the Carolina Hurricanes, 6-3 the Vancouver Canucks, and 5-1 and 5-2 back-to-back to the Vegas Golden Knights. It should be noted that every one of those teams are legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. The argument can certainly be made that it would be prudent for Drury to stand pat and regroup next season.

There are two reasons why that is highly unlikely. First, can you envision any scenario in which Drury, after firing Gerard Gallant for last season's playoff collapse, and then hiring Peter Laviolette to turns things around, goes to James Dolan and admits this team isn't good enough to win? I'd love to be a fly on the wall in Dolan's office when that conversation takes place. Remember, this is an owner who fired John Davidson and Jeff Gorton three years ago because he didn't like the way the Rangers were playing. And that team had zero expectations of making the playoffs, let alone winning the Cup. What do you think he'd do given the promises that were undoubtedly made over the summer? Drury has no choice but to go all in. In for a penny, in for a pound, right?

Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, despite their recent play, the Rangers are still in first place in the Metropolitan division. And that's important because, unlike the Atlantic, where there are four teams capable of going to the finals, in the Metro, the only team that poses a serious threat to the Blueshirts is the Carolina Hurricanes. The Philadelphia Flyers are finally fizzling out, as we thought they would; the Islanders, despite their work ethic, always seem to come up short regardless of who's behind the bench; the Devils can't seem to get out of their own way; the Pittsburgh Penguins, even with a rejuvenated Sidney Crosby, keep finding new ways to lose; and the Washington Capitals have run out of smoke and mirrors. Whether they finish first or second, the Rangers stand a pretty good chance of advancing to the Eastern Conference finals. Drury knows this; that's why you can expect him to be active this deadline.

But who to go after, that's the question. The Rangers most glaring needs are right wing and center. Kaapo Kakko and Blake Wheeler are clearly not working out on the first line. And the third line has needed a center ever since Chytil went down in November. Nick Bonino was supposed to be a checking center, and Jonny Brodzinski was supposed to be in Hartford. At least that was the plan. With Bonino waived, Drury needs to find a 1RW, a 3C and a 4C, all for $5 million. A tall order to be sure, but doable.

Two high-profile targets are off the board. Elias Lindholm was dealt to the Vancouver Canucks by the Calgary Flames for a combination of draft picks and players, while Sean Monahan was acquired by the Winnipeg Jets from the Montreal Canadiens for a first rounder and a conditional pick. Between the two, Monahan was having the better season. And with a modest $1.985m cap hit, he would've been an ideal fit for a team like the Rangers looking to fill multiple holes.

Now that he's gone, Drury will have to look elsewhere. And that elsewhere should be the Anaheim Ducks where he can kill two birds with one stone. Both Adam Henrique and Frank Vatrano are having good years, and both can be had for the right price. Collectively, their cap hit comes out to $9.475m, meaning the Ducks will have to retain some salary for it to work for the Rangers. That will drive up the cost.

Vatrano had a successful, if short, stint in New York two years ago playing on the Zibanejad line. He's a shoot first, as questions later, forward on a team that is still way too pass happy. And he's signed through next season, meaning he wouldn't just be a rental. Henrique is a veteran center who can score and wins face-offs. He'd be the perfect 3C. To get both, Drury would have to part with multiple draft picks, one of which would be a first rounder, and at least one prospect. Don't kid yourself: if Lindholm and Monahan fetched what they did, no way in hell the Ducks are giving up two players like Vatrano and Henrique for peanuts. When it comes to trade deadlines, typically it's a sellers market.

If the asking price for Vatrano and Henrique proves too rich for Drury's blood, he can always split the baby. Maybe Vatrano for Kakko straight up and Boone Jenner from the Columbus Blue Jackets for Brodzinski and a conditional first rounder. Jenner scored 26 goals for the Jackets last season, and like Vatrano, he's signed beyond this season so he wouldn't be a rental. And with a cap hit of $3.75m, he doesn't break the bank.

Another possible target for Drury would be Yanni Gourde of the Seattle Kraken. The former Tampa Bay Lightning center was a fixture on those two Stanley Cup winning teams and played alongside Barclay Goodrow. It's well known that since he was promoted to President and GM of the Rangers, Drury has wanted to create a bonafide checking line. He coveted Phillip Danault, and was actively looking to sign the former Canadien before he chose the L.A. Kings. With the Kraken only two points out of the last Wild Card in the West, it's doubtful Ron Francis will want to trade Gourde.

Bottom line, there's plenty of items still left on the menu for Drury to consider.

2023-24 NHL Predictions

It's that time of year again when yours truly puts what's left of his reputation on the line. Two years ago, I had the Vegas Golden Knights and New York Islanders in the Stanley Cup Finals; neither team made the playoffs. Last year, I picked the Rangers and Colorado Avalanche to meet in the Finals; both teams were eliminated in the first round. So, I guess you could say I'm improving. At this rate, in another three years, I'll finally nail it.

All kidding aside, it's all done in fun, so don't take it too seriously. After all, I had the Columbus Blue Jackets as a wild card last season and they were one of the worst teams in the NHL. So with that in mind, let's get on with the predictions.

Eastern Conference:

Atlantic Division:

Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs finally won a playoff series last season - beating the Tampa Bay Lightning in seven - and then promptly lost to the Florida Panthers in the next round. As usual, it's never about the level of talent in Toronto, but rather the level of toughness. Hence, the signings of Tyler Bertuzzi and Ryan Reaves. The fab four will carry the offensive load, but after that, they're a little thin to make a deep run in the postseason.

Florida Panthers: Last season, the Panthers - formerly known as the Puddy Tats - shocked the hockey world by not just knocking off the Presidents' Trophy Boston Bruins, but going all the way to the finals before finally losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. Matthew Tkachuk is one of the best all-around forwards in the game and Sergei Bobrovsky redeemed his reputation last spring as a money goaltender.

Boston Bruins: Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí both retired, Taylor Hall was dealt to the Blackhawks, and Tyler Bertuzzi and Dmitry Orlov both left via free agency. No team in the league was probably more negatively impacted by the constraints of the flat salary cap than the Bruins. And yet, this will still be a solid defensive team with elite-level goaltending that will win its fair share of games.

Metropolitan Division:

New Jersey Devils: If you saw their meteoric rise last season you're a better man than me. Rarely has a core popped all at once. Their speed down the middle is their greatest asset and they will give defenses fits all season long. I'm still not sold that their goaltending is up to the task of going the distance and they're a little thin on the blue line. But their top six is as good as it gets.

Carolina Hurricanes: Michael Bunting should fit right in with this group of forwards which, though lacking explosiveness, is one of the most cohesive groups in the NHL. No team generates more scoring chances than the Canes. But as we saw in last year's ECF, they lack the finishers to capitalizes on them.

New York Rangers: Peter Laviolette is tasked with turning this talent laden team into a Cup contender. It may take a while for his up-tempo system to be fully implemented, hence the third place prediction. With Shesterkin in net, they will always be a threat. Whether they have the testicular fortitude to go all the way remains to be seen.

Wild Cards: 

Buffalo Sabres: If the Sabres had played as well at home as they did on the road, they would've made the playoffs last season. This is an up and coming team that is young, talented and on the verge of being a genuine contender. They will drive whichever team they meet in the postseason up the wall. Defense is their only concern.

Ottawa Senators: Another young team on the rise. Brady Thuchuk - Matthew's younger brother - and Tim Stützle are genuine stars. Like the Sabres, they're also a year or two away from being a contender, but watch out.

Close but no cigar:

Pittsburgh Penguins: One of the oldest teams in the league needed to get younger and better on D. So what did new GM Kyle Dumas do? He traded for 32 year-old winger Reilly Smith and 33 year-old defenseman Erik Karlsson, quite possibly the worst plus / minus recipient of the Norris trophy ever.

New York Islanders: The shame here is that Ilya Sorokin will be a finalist for the Vezina trophy and he's trapped on a team that will struggle to find offense. Poor Lou Lamoriello; he still thinks it's the '90s.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Since they won their second Cup in a row in '21, they've turned over half their roster. And now they'll be without Andrei Vasilevskiy until mid-December. Not even Toe Blake could save them.

Western Conference:

Central Division:

Colorado Avalanche: Even without Gabriel Landeskog, they are a formidable force to be reckoned with. Nathan MacKinnon is one of the best two-way centers in the league and Cale Makar a perennial Norris trophy candidate. Ryan Johansen and Ross Colton were shrewd pickups by Chris MacFarland. They are well coached and a legit threat to go all the way.

Dallas Stars: I underestimated them last season, as did a lot of people. They're deep and they have one of the best defensemen in the the league in Miro Heiskanen, not to mention one of the best goalies in Jake Oettinger.

Minnesota Wild: G.M. Bill Guerin is doing the best he can with the dead cap hits he was forced to take thanks to his predecessor. They'll be in the mix but a lack of depth will come back to bite them in the end.

Pacific Division: 

Vegas Golden Knights: Boy, do I feel really stupid. Not only did I not have them winning the Cup last season, I didn't even have them making the playoffs. I won't make that mistake again. The secret to Vegas's success is their depth at both forward and defense. They can come with you with four lines and all three of their defense pairings are big and mobile. They are the odds-on favorites to repeat.

Edmonton Oilers: The over / under on Connor McDavid's point total this season is 137.5. Take the over. McDavid is without question the best player in the NHL. Mattias Ekholm - a trade deadline pickup - is a solid, stay at home defenseman, a rarity in Edmonton. The flat salary cap has hindered what G.M. Ken Holland can do to address the lack of depth. Jack Campbell is an adequate, but hardly elite, goalie.

Los Angeles Kings: The Kings are betting that Pierre-Luc Dubois will provide the offensive balance they've been looking for to make them a legit contender. It's a bet that may pay off. With Dubois at center and Kevin Fiala at wing, LA has a potent one-two punch.

Wild Cards:

Seattle Kraken: Were it not for the upset of the Bruins at the hands of the Panthers, the Kraken's upset of the Avalanche would've been the story of the year. In just two short seasons G.M. Ron Francis has done a tremendous job meticulously building a team that last season was one win away from advancing to the conference finals.

Calgary Flames: Now that old blood and guts Darryl Sutter has been shown the door, this team can finally exhale. The Flames have the talent and the goaltending to be a playoff team. They're not in the same class as Vegas or Edmonton or Colorado, but they are much better than what they showed last season.

Close but no cigar:

Winnipeg Jets: Losing Dubois and Blake Wheeler - a buyout - will hinder a team that made the playoffs last season by the skin of its teeth. It's going to be a tough year in Winnipeg.

Playoffs:

Eastern Conference Finals: Rangers over the Maple Leafs 4-3

Western Conference Finals: Avalanche over the Golden Knights 4-3

Stanley Cup Finals: Rangers over the Avalanche 4-3

Year End Awards:

Presidents' Trophy: Colorado Avalanche

Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid, Oilers

Hart Trophy: Matthew Tkachuk, Panthers

Norris Trophy: Miro Heiskanen, Stars

Vezina Trophy: Ilya Sorokin, Islanders

Jack Adams Award: Peter Laviolette, Rangers

Conn Smythe Trophy: Igor Shesterkin, Rangers

Road Sweet Home

Two up, two down, two to go.

Going into their best of seven series against the New Jersey Devils, I said the Rangers needed to do two things in order to advance: manage the puck well and win the special teams battle.

Well, mission accomplished - so far. Back-to-back, 5-1 road wins by the Blueshirts. Impressive doesn't begin to describe it. Through the first two games, they have not only shut down the NHL's fourth best offense, they've converted on four of ten power play opportunities, while killing seven of eight Devils power plays. New Jersey's top four scorers - Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Dougie Hamilton and Jesper Bratt - have a combined one goal and no assists. And that one goal by Hughes came courtesy of the lamest penalty shot ever awarded in a professional hockey game. 

Not even the most incurable optimist could've predicted such a dominant performance by this team. And while I'm not one to count my chickens before they hatch, the way the Rangers are playing, I'm not sure there's anything the Devils can do to alter the trajectory of this series. I haven't seen a Rangers team this locked in since - dare I say it? - 1994. That team - led by Mark Messier - swept the Islanders in the first round and beat the Washington Capitals 4-1 in the second, on its way to capturing the organization's first Stanley Cup in 54 years. And this team has more talent than that team. Think about that.

If ever there was an example where analytics was useless, it is here. Every so-called expert - including yours truly - thought the Devils were a terrible matchup for the Rangers. Their speed and skill would be difficult, if not impossible, to contend with. But after two games, it is the Blueshirts that have given the Devils fits. 

The Rangers have been incredibly disciplined with the puck, especially in the neutral zone, and that has limited the number of odd-man rushes the Devils have been able to generate. They have also taken away much of the ice from both Hughes and Hischier, virtually shutting down their passing lanes, In two games, Hughes has nine giveaways. To put that in perspective, the Rangers have that many as a team.

Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane are proving to be this franchise's best trade deadline pickups since Stephane Matteau, Brian Noonan and Craig MacTavish. Yes, I'm going there. Tarasenko has two goals while Kane has a goal and three assists. In game two, he stripped the puck from Bratt in the neutral zone, sprinted down the ice and beat Vitak Vanecek on a gorgeous backhander. So much for a bad hip.

But it is Adam Fox and Chris Kreider who are putting on a clinic in this series. Fox has six assists while Kreider has all four of his team's power play goals. The Devils have had no answer for either. And the Rangers have done all this with their number one center Mika Zibanejad contributing just one assist. Tell me you saw that coming.

Games three and four are at Madison Square Garden Saturday and Monday nights, If the Rangers are smart, they will avoid a repeat of what happened to them last postseason when they were up two games to none over the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference finals and lost in six. That was a bitter pill for this group to swallow. A learning experience, you could say. And while the Devils are no Lightning, they certainly have the ability to extend this series, if the Rangers let them.

That's why they can't allow that to happen. They must put the Devils out of their misery. The Rangers are the better team. They have superior depth, they have more experience, and if that isn't good enough, they have Igor Shesterkin. 

They are in control of their own destiny. This is their moment. They need to seize it.

*Note: an earlier version of this piece had a typo. The Rangers were up two games to none over the Tampa Bay Lightning last postseason. Unfortunately, I typed one instead of none. I have made the correction. Sorry for the confusion.

Boyz II Men

If the key to winning a championship is depth up and down the lineup, then the New York Rangers are blessed to have what many consider to be the deepest roster in the NHL. Because on a night when Mika Zibanaejad, Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox were held without a point, the Kid Line of Filip Chytil, Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko took charge. Each scored a goal and added an assist Saturday to propel the Blueshirts to a 4-3 win over the Putty Tats in South Florida.

It's time to state the obvious: these are no longer "kids." They're much more than that. Throughout much of the season, whenever head coach Gerard Gallant has put them together, this threesome has been, by far, the most consistent and cohesive unit on the team. That doesn't mean they've been the most dominant on the score sheet - that distinction belongs to the above mentioned fab four. But on numerous nights, when the core didn't have quite enough in the tank, the "kids" picked up the slack.

There was the game against the Maple Leafs at Toronto where Chytil scored both goals for the Rangers in a 3-2 OT loss; the game against the Calgary Flames at the Garden where Lafreniere scored the OT winner; another thriller at the Garden against the New Jersey Devils where Chytil helped set up the game-tying goal by Kakko and then scored the winner in OT. And in what has to be considered the best come from behind win of the season, Kakko and Lafreniere each scored in the shootout against the Oilers at Edmonton.

It is now abundantly clear that last year's playoffs were no anomaly. The talent is there; as is the work ethic. Almost without exception, every time they take the ice, something good happens. Even when they don't score, they keep the opposing team hemmed in their own zone. Yes, it's taken a while for the rose to finally bloom - Chytil is in his fifth full season, Kakko his fourth and Lafreniere his third - but success, regardless of what the Twitterverse may think, isn't measured on an assembly line basis. 

Face it, not everyone is Sydney Crosby or Connor McDavid. Since their arrival in New York, Kakko and Lafreniere have been under a constant microscope. Kakko is often compared to Jack Hughes, the number one pick in the 2019 draft; while Lafreniere, the number one pick in the 2020 draft, gets compared to Tim Stutzle, the player taken two picks later. Neither is a fair comparison, in my opinion.

For starters, in 2019 no one doubted that Hughes was the better player; the only concern was whether, at 175 pounds, he was durable enough to play in the NHL. And while a low-grade MCL injury ended his season last year, for the most part Hughes has been a regular in the Devils lineup. Regarding the 2020 draft, Lafreniere was the consensus number one pick. It wasn't even close. To say otherwise is the rankest form of revisionist history.

But secondly, and perhaps most importantly, both Hughes and Stutzle have from day one played in the top six for their respective teams, with both spending considerable time on the power play. By comparison, Kakko and Lafreniere have been mostly relegated to the third line, and until recently, gotten virtually no time on the power play. Did you know that going into this season, Lafreniere had more even-strength goals (31) than Stutzle (22)? Just imagine how many more goals Lafreniere could've scored if he were on the power play. Then factor in the built-in advantage top six players traditionally have on most teams and it's reasonable to assume both Kakko and Lafreniere would have better stats than they currently do.

As for Chytil, he had the curse of being the third center on a team that already had two pretty good ones. Contrary to popular opinion, Jeff Gorton didn't really tear down the Rangers. What he did more closely resembled a retool than a formal rebuild. He kept some of his key players like Zibanaejad, Kreider, Ryan Strome and Henrik Lundqvist, and then he signed Panarin. This meant that Chytil, along with Kakko and Lafreniere, had little chance of getting substantial ice time. Consequently, the growth of all three players was stunted almost from the very first shift they took as Rangers.

All that is water over the dam. Chytil, Kakko and Lafreniere have become key cogs on this team. As deep as the Rangers are, any hope they have of capturing their first Stanley Cup since 1994 will depend in no small part upon the contributions these three former kids, now men, make.

Rangers Rolling Towards the Playoffs

Sometimes all you can do is sit back and enjoy the show. And what a show it's been.

Over the last two games, the Rangers have shutout the Pittsburgh Penguins and Nashville Predators 6-0 and 7-0 respectively. Remember when we were concerned about this team's ability to jell? Well, guess what? Mission accomplished as far as the jelling is concerned. Just look at these numbers.

K'Andre Miller: 2 goals, 4 assists

Artemi Panarin: 3 goals, 2 assists

Mika Zibanaejad: 2 goals, 3 assists

Jacob Trouba: 1 goal, 3 assists

Vincent Trocheck: 3 assists

Chris Kreider: 2 goals

Vladimir Tarasenko: 1 goal, 1 assist

Filip Chytil: 1 goal, 1 assist

Patrick Kane: 2 assists

Adam Fox: 2 assists

Tyler Motte: 1 goal

Barclay Goodrow: 1 assist

Kaapo Kakko: 1 assist

Jaroslav Halak: 1 assist

As you can see, the scoring was pretty well distributed throughout the roster. Line one had twelve points; line two had seven points; line three had three points; line four had two points; and the defense had a whopping twelve points. Even the goalie had an assist. The three forwards Chris Drury acquired at the trade deadline are making their mark. Tarasenko has five goals and eight assists in nineteen games; Kane has three goals and four assists in nine games; and Motte has two goals and two assists in twelve games. Gerard Gallant has been looking to roll four lines since his arrival. Now he can.

The last time a team scored six plus goals in consecutive shutout wins was 1977 when the Philadelphia Flyers accomplished it. Beginning in the third period of that first home game against the Penguins - a 4-2 win - the Rangers have scored fifteen unanswered goals, the most by a team this season, and the most for the franchise since 1973. When you have to go all the way back to the '70s to find a comparable performance, you've done something pretty damn special.

And speaking of special, going into last night's game, the Rangers had scored power play goals in five of their last seven games, going 6 for 20 over that span for a 30 percent conversion rate. Conversely, they'd killed off 22 out of 24 penalties in their last eight games for a 91.7 percent kill rate. That's about as elite as it gets. FYI: teams that get that kind of performance from their special teams in the playoffs typically go deep.

But as impressive as this recent onslaught was to behold, even more gratifying was the performance in net from Igor Shesterkin and Halak. Both made huge saves early in their respective starts to keep the game scoreless until the offense got going, and later on to preserve the shutout. It cannot be overstated just how critical it is for this team to have both their goaltenders in top form going into the postseason, especially Shesterkin. Put succinctly, they will go only as far as Igor takes them.

It was only a few weeks ago that yours truly was sounding the alarm over last year's Vezina trophy winner. Shesterkin's overall numbers were already off from last season, that was obvious. But since the All-Star break, they've been particularly bad. In February, his goals against average was a season-high 3.71 and his save percentage was a woeful .863. Pucks that he routinely turned away were now getting past him. 

Since the beginning of March, though, his numbers have improved considerably. His GAA is 2.10 and his SV% is .928. Over his last four starts, they've really taken off. He's allowed only six goals on 129 shots for a .953 save percentage. And Halak in his last two starts has allowed only three goals on 57 shots for a .947 save percentage. Now that's what I call a dynamic duo.

Having a reliable backup goaltender, in what promises to be a long and grueling playoff tournament, will give Gallant the option of resting Shesterkin a game or two. Last postseason, he had no choice but to ride his number one goalie pretty much the whole way. This postseason, he'll have Halak in the bullpen should he need him. Among the top teams in the East, only the Boston Bruins have a better tandem.

And now for the sixty-four thousand dollar question. Are the Rangers a legitimate contender? Yes, they are. Mind you, they still have a few kinks to iron out on defense, where they still give up a few too many scoring chances, but I suspect that will improve dramatically once Ryan Lindgren returns; hopefully in the next few games. As of right now, I'd rate them as the second best team in the conference behind only the Bruins. They're better and deeper than last year's team and they have the goaltending to go all the way. 

The Rangers are 6-0-1 in their last seven games, five points behind the New Jersey Devils and six points behind the Carolina Hurricanes. It is not inconceivable that they could catch both teams. They play the Canes in a home and home Tuesday and Thursday, followed by the Florida Panthers Saturday on the road, the Columbus Blue Jackets next Tuesday at the Garden and the Devils the following Thursday in Jersey. A sweep of all five games could potentially catapult them into first place in the Metro division.

Like I said, sometimes all you can do is sit back and enjoy the show.

We Need to Talk About Igor Shesterkin

As a rule, I'm not one to overreact. Being in sales for a quarter century has taught me many things. Chief among them is that things are never as bad or as good as they seem. The truth lies somewhere in between.

Of course, in the Twitterverse, overreaction isn't just par for the course, it's a prerequisite for membership. Seriously, if I had a dollar for every time a Rangers fan lost his shit over Gerard Gallant juggling his lines, or Jacob Trouba taking a stupid penalty, or Artemi Panarin having another one of his ill-advised cross-ice passes intercepted, my wife and I would have enough money for a one-week stay at the Halekulani in Waikiki. Referring to Twitter as a social media platform is the very definition of an oxymoron.

That being said, we need to talk about Igor Shesterkin. Last season's Vezina trophy winner is clearly in a slump. His save percentage in February is an ominous .865. To put that in perspective, in all of 2022-23, the lowest save percentage he posted was .916 in March. In fact, if we're truly being honest here, Igor is having an off year compared to what he did last season. Let's break it down, shall we?

Season 2021-22 2022-23 Mo. GAA / SV % GAA / SV % Oct   1.70 / .947 2.55 / .913 Nov 2.67 / .920 2.60 / .912 Dec 2.11 / .929 2.14 / .927 Jan 1.86 / .947 2.62 / .916 Feb 1.31 / .959 3.54 / .865 Mar 2.68 / .916 Apr 1.90 / .930 Average 2.07 / .935 2.59 / .912

The numbers don't lie. As I wrote back in November, Shesterkin "just hasn't lived up to his billing." The incredible saves he was famous for making last season have now become the questionable goals he's allowing this season. Monday night against the Winnipeg Jets he was outclassed by Connor Hellebuyck, who turned away 50 of 51 shots, while Igor gave up four goals on only 21 shots, three of which should've been stopped. Against the Edmonton Oilers, he surrendered four first-period goals. It was obvious he was having trouble picking up the puck. The Rangers eventually came from behind to win the game in the shootout. And against the Vancouver Canucks, he got beat on what looked like an innocuous third-period shot that turned what should've been an easy win into a nail biter.

The fact is Shesterkin has had too many games like that; games when he failed to come up with the one clutch save his teammates needed him to make. It's not that he's been terrible; it's just that he hasn't been the Igor we all know and love. And for a team that gives up a lot of high-danger scoring chances, that's a problem. Last season, the Rangers advanced to the Eastern Conference finals primarily due to Shesterkin's brilliance in net. If this month's Shesterkin shows up in the playoffs, the Rangers will be lucky to win one game, much less two rounds.

Going into action today, the top five goaltenders in the NHL by save percentage with at least 30 starts are 1. Linus Ullmark, Boston (.937); 2. Jake Oettinger, Dallas (.927); 3. Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg (.926); 4. Ilya Sorokin, Islanders (.924); and Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa (.919). Shesterkin (.912) is number 12 on that list. No, that wasn't a typo. Igor Shesterkin, last season's best save percentage goalie, isn't even in the top ten this season.

If you're not concerned, you should be. Chris Drury has done a masterful job assembling what many consider to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. The additions of Vladimir Tarasenko and Tyler Motte have made this team deeper and tougher to play against. But no amount of tweaking can overcome substandard goaltending.

The good news is there's still plenty of time for Shesterkin to find his game. The postseason doesn't start for another seven weeks. Additionally, four of the Rangers next five games are against non-playoff teams. So long as they continue to generate scoring chances the way they've been doing this month, they should be okay.

Rangers Coming Into Shape

Chris Drury is apparently done making splashes. His latest move - re-acquiring Tyler Motte from the Ottawa Senators for a conditional seventh round pick and Julien Gauthier - is an indication that the GM believes his team's greatest need isn't the addition of another scorer like Patrick Kane to the top six, but a little sandpaper to his beleaguered fourth line. So Motte - who did a yeoman's job playing with Barclay Goodrow and Ryan Reaves in last year's tournament - will hopefully have a repeat performance with Goodrow and a player to be named later. You don't think Drury would be stupid enough to go with Jake Leschyshyn as his 4C in the postseason, do you? Leschyshyn is merely a caretaker until his replacement arrives. By this time next week Nick Bjugstad, Sam Lafferty, or someone comparable will be donning the blue and red.

Face it: in a perfect world - one without a salary cap - Drury would jump at the chance to land Kane. Hell, with no salary cap, Timo Meier would already be a Ranger. Unfortunately, there is a salary cap and once Drury pulled the trigger on Vladimir Tarasenko, Kane became a luxury he could no longer afford. Yes, I suppose if Drury is able to find someone to take Leschyshyn and Vitali Kravtsov off his hands - a big if - that might free up just barely enough cap space to swing it, but that would mean Goodrow becomes the 4C, which would be a mistake. Goodrow is a winger, not a center.

Like it or not, Rangers fans, you're going to have to deal with Jimmy Vesey playing in the top six. While his inability to finish over the last few games is a concern that could prove problematic in April and May, even more concerning is the fact that Gerard Gallant barely played his fourth line in the third period against the Flames on Saturday. A coach who shortens his bench in the third period is nothing new in hockey; it happens all the time. What happened in Calgary, though, had nothing to do with a coach shortening his bench; it was a not so subtle hint from Gallant to his boss that he couldn't trust some of his players with the game on the line. Credit Drury for getting it. 

Let's be clear here. Motte is not a silver bullet. Like I pointed out above, he did a yeoman's job on the fourth line last postseason, but Bob Gainey he ain't. What he does bring to the table is a quality this team on too many nights still lacks: the ability to win the battles in the trenches. This team has plenty of elite-level talent; what it doesn't have enough of are foot soldiers. Motte is a foot soldier who isn't afraid to get his uniform bloodied. The Rangers are a better, slightly tougher, team now than they were on Saturday.

And they will need every ounce of that toughness if they have any hope of beating what is, without question, the toughest, most complete team in the NHL. The Boston Bruins are having the kind of season teams dream about. At 43-8-5, they're the prohibitive favorites to win the Stanley Cup. They can score, they can defend and they have the best goaltending tandem in the league. Besting them in a seven game series will be a tall order.

With the top six teams all in the Eastern Conference, whichever team makes it to the finals will have gone through three rounds of a track meet. If the Rangers are to be that team, Drury needs to make one more move on his chess board.

2022-23 NHL Predictions

Seeing as how I was so "great" with my predictions last year - I actually had the Islanders over the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup finals and neither team qualified for the postseason - I thought I'd give it another whirl. As always, take them with a rather large grain of salt.

Eastern Conference:

Atlantic Division:

Florida Panthers: They gave up their leading scorer and second best defenseman to land Matthew Tkachuk. That should tell you how desperate they were to get rid of the stench of last year's sweep at the hands of the Lightning. Time will tell if it was worth it.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Both Ryan McDonagh and Ondrej Palat were cap casualties and will be sorely missed. But there's still more than enough talent on this roster, and so long as they have Andrei Vasilevskiy in net, they have to be taken seriously as a Cup contender.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Everyone has jumped on their bandwagon this season, which is odd given that they didn't address their lack of depth during the offseason and they're relying on a goaltender whose best years are half a decade behind him. Auston Matthews will once again keep them relevant. 

Metropolitan Division:

New York Rangers: Vincent Trocheck is a step above Ryan Strome; the "kids" seem poised to have a break out year; and last season's Vezina trophy winner Igor Shesterkin is the best in the league. Chris Drury has done a masterful job as GM.

Carolina Hurricanes: Yes, Brent Burns is better than Tony DeAngelo, and they got Max Pacioretty from the Golden Knights ostensibly for free, but losing Trocheck to the Rangers and Nino Niederreiter to the Predators will cost them.

Pittsburgh Penguins: They kept "the band" together. So what? The last time this "band" won a playoff series was 2018. The core of this team is old and getting older. Ron Hextall keeps punting the ball hoping for a muff. It won't work.

Wild Cards: 

Boson Bruins: God only knows how Don Sweeney managed to entice Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci to return on such team-friendly contracts - $2.5m and $1m respectively. Good for him. Sans them, this team would have a hard time staying above .500. But even with both on the roster, it's hard imagining them going far in the playoffs.

Columbus Blue Jackets: They made the biggest splash during the offseason, signing Johnny Gaudreau and then re-signed Patrik Laine. They'll score a ton of goals but struggle on D. 

Western Conference:

Central Division: 

Colorado Avalanche: They steamrolled their way to a Stanley Cup championship last season, going 16-4 in the tournament. And while losing Nazem Kadri to the Flames will test the depth of this team, the core is about as elite as it gets.

Nashville Predarors: McDonagh and Niederreiter were solid additions during the offseason and will make this team a formidable opponent during both the regular and postseason. Their goaltending is elite and their defense is among the best in the league.

St. Louis Blues: Balanced scoring throughout the lineup makes them a genuine threat, and Jordan Binnington is still one of the better goalies in the league.

Pacific Division:

Calgary Flames: Talk about turning lemons into lemonade. Their two best players departed over the summer: one via free agency, the other via a trade, and they managed to actually get better. Jonathan Huberdeau is one of the best forwards in the league and Kadri was the second best center on last year's Colorado Cup team. Despite last season's poor showing against the Oilers in the second round, Jacob Markstrom is an outstanding goaltender.

Edmonton Oilers: I'm going out on a limb here by picking them again for second place. They have the scoring up front with Connor McDavid; the issue is the defense. Jack Campbell may not be an elite goalie, but he's head over heels better than Mike Smith.

L.A. Kings: They lucked out when the Wild had to shed Kevin Fiala's contract in an obvious salary dump. Now they will at least be able to put some pucks in the net. Jonathan Quick should still have enough left in the tank to give them first-rate goaltending.

Wild Cards:

Minnesota Wild: Fiala was a salary cap casualty. And that's unfortunate for a team that challenged for second place in the division last season. They re-signed Marc-Andre Fleury so that will help.

Vancouver Canucks: Now that they've extended J.T. Miller and they have their coach in place, I expect they will do what they should've done last year: make the playoffs.

Close but no cigar:

Eastern Conference:

New York Islanders: For the second straight offseason, Lou Lamoriello failed to add an elite scorer to this otherwise pedestrian forward group. Pity Mathew Barzall, who deserves better than what he's been given.

Washington Capitals: They needed to get younger and didn't. The good news is that at least their fans will be able to see Alex Ovechkin break Wayne Gretzky's goal record.

New Jersey Devils: They needed a sniper on the wing; they got Ondrej Palat. They needed a solid goaltender; they got Vitek Vanecek. They'll score a lot of goals; they'll give up more.

Western Conference:

Vegas Golden Knights: Their successful pursuit of Jack Eichel has cost them Alex Tuch, Peyton Krebs, and Max Pacioretty. It will now cost them a second-consecutive postseason berth.

Dallas Stars: They extended the Flames a full seven games in the opening round of the playoffs last season. This year they won't get that chance.

Playoffs:

Eastern Conference Finals: Rangers over the Lightning 4-2

Western Conference Finals: Avalanche over the Flames 4-3

Stanley Cup Finals: Avalanche over the Rangers 4-2

Year End Awards:

Presidents' Trophy: Colorado Avalanche

Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid, Oilers

Hart Trophy: Jonathan Huberdeau, Flames

Norris Trophy: Roman Josi, Predators

Vezina Trophy: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning

Jack Adams Award: Gerard Gallant, Rangers

Conn Smythe Trophy: Cale Makar, Avalanche

Over and Out

It's finally over. The New York Rangers' season came to a merciless end Saturday night in Tampa. After falling behind 0-2 in the series, the Lightning swept the last four games to close out the Blueshirts in six. Not even a 5-0 record when facing elimination was enough to save them. In the end, the most resilient team in the NHL simply ran out of gas. Igor Shesterkin was the only thing keeping this game from getting ugly. 

So now what?

Well for starters, let's state the obvious. This was a very successful season. Seriously, if you had the Rangers six wins away from a Stanley Cup in October, you're either a time traveler or high. Chris Drury should be commended for the moves he made both at the trade deadline and before the start of the season. They made this team deeper and harder to play against. And while we're at it, let's also give a shoutout to Jeff Gorton. Most of the players on that ice were acquired by him one way or the other. His decision in 2018 to rebuild was, in retrospect, the correct one, and it is because of his vision and courage that this franchise is on solid footing for the foreseeable future.

And despite some puzzling moves, particularly the benching of Kaapo Kakko in favor of Dryden Hunt in an elimination game, Gerard Gallant did an incredible job behind the bench all year. After three years of David Quinn, this team needed a breath of fresh air and Gallant was the perfect choice. I still maintain he should've won the Jack Adams award.

But as successful as this season was, the real work begins immediately. That's because the Rangers have a number of holes to fill and not a lot of resources with which to fill them. Indeed, they have just over $12* million in available cap space next year with only 14 players under contract. Given that the league allows each team up to 23 players, that doesn't leave a lot of room for Drury to construct a roster. If he can move Patrik Nemeth's contract in the off season, that'd give him an additional $2.5 million to play with.

The first hole is second-line center. It's practically a given that UFA Ryan Strome will not be returning. The fact that Drury didn't lock him up before the season began was a bad omen; that they traded for Andrew Copp at the deadline was a hint that they were willing to move on. But while Copp would be an improvement over Strome, Drury may elect to look outside the organization, especially if he feels Filip Chytil, who had a solid postseason, isn't up to the challenge. Mark Scheifele's name continues to pop up. The Winnipeg Jets center has two years remaining on a $6.125 AAV contract. A package of Kakko, Chytil, Nils Lundkvist and a future draft pick might be enough to pry him away.

Then there's right wing, a sore spot all season long that Drury was able to address in March with the acquisitions of Frank Vatrano and Copp. Vatrano will likely be too expensive to retain, and Copp, if he stays, it will be as a center. The news that Vitali Kravtsov was re-signed to a one-year contract at $875k, makes it clear that Drury is trying to get as creative as he can to shore up his lineup's deficiencies. The Russian winger had a falling out with the organization last fall that led him to bolt for the KHL this season. If both sides can bury the hatchet, the Rangers may have struck pay dirt here. The kid's got talent; it's just a matter of whether Gallant can harness it. And if Alexis Lafreniere can successfully make the transition to right wing, the first two lines should be set next season, regardless of what happens with Kakko.

But while plugging both these holes is essential for Drury, a more glaring and pressing need emerged in these playoffs. Put succinctly, the Rangers do not have a bonafide checking line. Let's face it, Kevin Rooney and Ryan Reaves were ostensibly useless. Turns out the former isn't much of a checker and the latter is way too slow to keep up with the league's elite-level forwards. In the Pittsburgh series, Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust did pretty much whatever the hell they wanted; and in the Tampa series, Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Ondrej Palat looked like they were running a track meet. In neither instance did the Rangers appear to have an answer.

If you're thinking checking lines are overrated, consider this: Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn and Brandon Hagel didn't score an even strength goal against the Rangers the entire series, and Jon Cooper could not have cared less. They collectively held Mika Zibanejad's line to three even-strength goals, none in the final four games. And against the Florida Panthers, they completely shut down Alexander Barkov's line. That might explain why Drury was so interested in signing Phillip Danault over the summer. The former Montreal center played an integral role in the Canadiens drive to the finals last season. Can you imagine what a line of Danault, Barclay Goodrow and Tyler Motte would've done for the Rangers in this year's playoffs? Perhaps they wouldn't have needed a full seven games to dispatch the Penguins and Hurricanes. Perhaps they'd be playing the Colorado Avalanche this week for the Cup.

Yes, there's a lot on Drury's plate. The draft is coming up, and after that, free agency. The expectations will be high for this franchise going into next season. That's what happens when you advance to the conference finals after a five-year hiatus from the playoffs. The core is pretty much set: Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba and, of course, Harry Houdini himself, Igor Shesterkin. But cores don't win Stanley Cups. If they did, both the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers would have at least two a piece.

In the end, the Lightning reminded the Rangers that championships are earned, not awarded.

* An earlier version of this post reported that the Rangers have just over $13 million of available cap space next season, but that doesn't include Braden Schneider's contract which pays $925k. That brings the number down to just over $12 million, and that will be reduced further if Vitali Kravtsov makes the team next year. I have made the correction.