The One Thing That Could Trip Up the Rangers

It's no secret that the New York Rangers are hardly a powerhouse when it comes to their even-strength play. Words like "pedestrian" and "ordinary" describe a team that is "23rd in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 (48.6%) through 78 games and slightly underwater on percentage of shot attempts per 60 minutes (49.8%), ranking 19th overall." And it's certainly no secret that their power play and goaltending will be keys to whatever success they hope to have in the postseason.

But while the analytic community may be split as to whether the Rangers are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, there is another, far bigger threat that could trip up this team once the playoffs begin. Over their last 13 games, the Rangers have surrendered the first goal ten times. In half of those games, the deficit has been two or more goals.

Tuesday night at UBS Arena, the Rangers got off to yet another slow start and struggled to establish themselves in the first 20 minutes of play. The Islanders took full advantage, scoring the game's first 3 goals. It would've been more had Igor Shesterkin not made several brilliant saves. When the Rangers finally woke up, they dominated the Isles the rest of the way, scoring two power play goals in the second period and registering the first 10 shots on goal in the third. Unfortunately for the Blueshirts, their rally fell short and they lost 4-2.

Not every slow start has led to a loss. Against the Pittsburgh Penguins (3/16), the Boston Bruins (3/21), the Florida Panthers (3/23) the Philadelphia Flyers (3/26), the Colorado Avalanche (3/28), and the Montreal Canadiens (4/7) the Rangers were successfully able to overcome their sluggish start and win. Indeed, the Rangers lead the NHL with 27 come-from-behind victories; 13 of them came when they were trailing going into the third period.

And therein lies the problem. It’s one thing to play from behind and not get burned during the regular season; it’s quite another to do it in the playoffs. The Rangers are playing with fire if they think they can make a deep run in the postseason by adopting this strategy. Maybe they beat the Islanders or the Capitals in a seven-game series playing like that, but good luck beating the Carolina Hurricanes. This season, the Rangers were 2-1 against the Canes. Both times they won, they played with the lead; the one time they didn't, they trailed early.

The simple truth is that the teams which represent the biggest challenge to the Rangers on their road to the Stanley Cup will not be so easy to come from behind against once the postseason begins. Even the Bruins, a team the Rangers went 3-0 against, will eat them alive if they don't snap out of this funk.

Priority number one for Peter Laviolette and his coaching staff will be to convince this very talented team to show up on time and play a full 60 minutes. These inexplicable slow starts must stop, and stop now. He must light a fire under his players while there is still time. 

The good news is that the Rangers have, for the most part, responded positively to what their head coach has preached. From day one, the emphasis has been on structure and puck management. They've been the cornerstones of their success all season long. It's the principle reason why, with the exception of January, they've been among the best teams in the league, and are currently on the verge of winning their first Presidents' Trophy since 2015.

Two years ago, the Rangers trailed the Penguins 3-1 in the first round. They won the next three games; the last one coming in overtime at the Garden. In the next round, they trailed the Hurricanes 2-0 before winning 4 of the next 5 games. In both series, they beat the odds to prevail. 

If the Rangers know what's good for them, they will do everything in their power to avoid tempting the hand of fate again.

Horvat Deal Doesn't Impact Drury or the Rangers

To be honest, I was surprised that Lou Lamoriello pulled the trigger on the Bo Horvat deal. Frankly, I didn't think he had it in him. From everything we know about the man, he's strictly a role player type GM. Just take a gander at the Devils teams he put together in the '90s. He has a history of avoiding big names with equally big contracts. And make no mistake about it: it will take a lot of money to re-sign Horvat. Think at least $9.5 million x 8 years. If Mathew Barzal's AAV is $9.15 million x 8 years, you can bet the ranch the starting price for Horvat will be north of that. And that's assuming Lamoriello locks him up before the summer, which if he doesn't makes this "rental" a bust.

But while Horvat instantly becomes the Isles best player, his presence alone doesn't automatically catapult them into the postseason. That's because apart from Anders Lee there isn't a single winger on this roster that puts the fear of God into an opposing team. So unless Lou has another trade up his sleeve, I would hold off reserving those playoff tickets, if I were you. That might explain why Lamoriello protected the first round pick he sent to Vancouver. In the event they don't make into the tournament, he doesn't want to blow his chance at drafting Connor Bedard. Lou may be stubborn but he's not stupid.

So how does the Horvat deal impact Chris Drury's potential moves at the trade deadline? In a word, it doesn't. That's because Horvat is a center and the Rangers are set at that position. We can debate how effective Vincent Trocheck's offense has been since his arrival on Broadway last summer, but he is an improvement over Ryan Strome. If you can't see that, then maybe you should stop reading this blog. And after four years of promissory notes, Filip Chytil appears to finally be delivering on his potential. The third-line center has been one of the better forwards on this team the last few weeks, especially since Gerard Gallant reunited the Kid line. Drury's only problem will be re-signing him during the offseason.

As I wrote in my last piece, the Rangers number one need will be adding a scoring winger. And if they can find one cheap enough, maybe a shutdown center, as well. The problem for Drury won't be what his fellow GMs do, but available cap space. Even with Sammy Blais' contract off the books - and I assume Drury is actively working to make that a reality - the Rangers will only have about $7.5 million in deadline cap space to work with. That doesn't come come close to what they had last season when Drury was able to add four valuable pieces to help the Rangers on their playoff run.

Add to that the fact that, unlike last season when we knew who the top eight teams were in the Eastern conference, this season, there are eleven teams vying for eight playoff spots. In the Western conference, that number is ten. Meaning Drury will have a lot more chefs in the kitchen to contend with, all of them looking to make a soufflé from scratch. For an organization that values its youth and doesn't want to repeat the mistakes of the past, Drury will have to thread the needle here.

So, yes, the Horvat deal helps the Islanders, but it doesn't impact the Rangers in the slightest. Drury's job isn't any harder now than it was a day or two ago. This is still a playoff team that could use some filling out. How much will depend on what the seller is asking for and what the buyer is willing to pay.

We've Seen This Movie Before

One of the problems with being 61, apart from the occasional aches and pains that go along with it, is that I'm old enough to have seen a lot of shit go down that others have to look up to find out. As a sports fan who's had a love / hate relationship with my teams over the years, I've had my heart broken more times than I care to remember. The number one repeat offender has been the New York Rangers.

It hasn't been easy rooting for a team that has exactly one Stanley Cup to show for its efforts since the end of World War II. 1972, 1979, 1981-84, 1992, 1997, 2012, 2014, 2015. The list of near misses is as long as it is depressing, and it's about to grow by one.

You don't seriously think that a Jon Cooper-coached team is going to blow a chance to close out a best of seven Eastern Conference final this weekend, do you? If you do, you haven't been paying close attention to the way the Tampa Bay Lightning have played over the last three postseasons. Yes, the Islanders extended them to a seventh game in last year's semifinals, and yes they had to come from 3-2 down against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round this year. But those were the exceptions, not the rule. In every other series this team has played in, whenever they smelled blood they went in for the kill. Just ask the Florida Panthers about the Lightning's killer instinct. They were literally swept out of the playoffs in the second round.

Rangers fans have seen this movie before. During their Stanley Cup reign in the '80s, the Islanders played the Blueshirts four times and went four for four. It was frustrating knowing that no matter how hard they played, the results were always the same. Watching game five last night at the Garden, I had a sense of déjà vu. The Rangers played what was inarguably their best game since game two of the series. They skated with authority, they took the body, they cycled, they even struck first: a seeing-eye puck that found its way passed Andrei Vasilevskiy. It didn't matter. The Lightning got two of their own seeing-eye pucks passed Igor Shesterkin. In the end, the experience and poise of Tampa was simply too much to overcome. The Rangers played not to lose; the Lightning played to win. That was the difference in the game.

We can talk about the overpassing till the cows come home. David Quinn wasn't able to correct it and neither has Gerard Gallant. Face it, it's in their DNA. Last night, it was Andrew Copp's turn in the barrel. You live by the pass, you die by the pass. Right now they're dying by it. My only complaint was the way Gallant utilized the kid line. Given how completely ineffective Mika Zibanaejad and Chris Kreider have been over the last two games, it was disappointing to say the least that they had only eleven minutes of ice time as a unit, not even a minute more than the fourth line. The team's most effective forechecking line in the postseason and they barely touched the ice in the third period. If the season ends Saturday, Gallant will have some 'splainin' to do here.

So now it's onto Tampa for game six. Can the Rangers extend the series to a seventh game at the Garden? They are 5-0 in elimination games, so I suppose anything is possible. But consider this: after being pushed to the brink by the lowly Pittsburgh Penguins in the '82 preliminaries, the Islanders went 12-2 over the next three rounds to capture their third consecutive Cup. Since dispatching the Leafs in round one, the Bolts are 7-2.

I guess what I'm trying to say is don't go betting the kid's tuition on it.

Lamoriello's Obstinance is Costing the Islanders

Before I get to the main topic, I'd like to say a few words about the late, great Mike Bossy who passed away this month at the age of 65.

While number 22 was not the fastest skater in the NHL, the puck always seemed to find his stick. And though he did not have the hardest shot in the league, it was, by far, the most accurate; around the net no one was more lethal. 

Unlike a lot of scorers of his day, Bossy never hung out in center ice looking for a breakaway. He took care of his own end first. And only when his team got possession of the puck did he head up ice. Much of that is attributable to his coach, Al Arbour, who instilled a team-first attitude in all his players. But the rest is owed to Bossy who bought in.

He never wilted under the spotlight; the bigger the game, the better he played. After a disappointing performance in the infamous 1979 semifinals against the Rangers, Bossy would go on to lead the league in postseason goals from 1981 thru 1983, including an overtime goal with two seconds left against the Vancouver Canucks in game one of the '82 finals. He was the epitome of a winner.

Until Alex Ovechkin surpassed him this year with his tenth 50 goal season, he held the mark, along with Wayne Gretzky, for most 50 goal seasons at nine. And had it had it not been for a series of back injuries which forced into retirement at the ripe young age of 30, there's no telling how many 50 goal seasons he might've had. Eleven? Twelve? The sky was the limit. 

As a Rangers fan, it pains me to have to admit this, but he was in a class all by himself. And I weep at what might've been had then Rangers GM John Ferguson selected him in the 1977 entry draft instead of Lucien DeBlois. Sadly, we'll never know.

Now onto the main course. 

Forgive me for being insensitive and perhaps a bit too blunt, but I've had it with all the apologists who insist that had it not been for the rough start the Islanders had this season - 13 consecutive road games to open the season, Covid outbreaks, injuries - they would've been a playoff team. Based on just a rough analysis of the available data, that assumption simply isn't true.

The fact is this team, which was largely intact before the arrival of Lou Lamoriello and Barry Trotz, isn't nearly as good as many - including yours truly who, truth be told, picked them to win the Stanley Cup this year - thought they were.

Our blind spot? We confused spit with polish. Yes, the Isles have been the hardest working team in the NHL the last three years under Trotz. They had to be. After their top scorer John Tavares bolted to the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2018, they were forced to play a defensive system. And it worked brilliantly. In Trotz' first season as head coach, the Isles allowed a paltry 196 goals, the fewest in the league. However, they also were 21st in goals scored; a problem that has plagued the team ever since.

Lost in all the hoopla over their consecutive trips to the conference finals the past two seasons is the fact that had it not been for the suspension of all sports in the spring of 2020 due to the pandemic, the Isles would never have gotten into the playoffs. At the time the regular season was suspended, they were in 6th place in the Metropolitan Division. Only a qualifying round, in which they beat the Floridas Panthers to advance, prevented them from missing the postseason altogether.

This season, apart from Brock Nelson, who's having a career year with 36 goals, and Anders Lee, who's second on the team with 26, there isn't one player on this team who puts the fear of God into opponents. For all their blood, sweat and tears, there is a staggering dearth of elite-level talent on the roster. Mathew Barzal continues to be an enigma. After a promising rookie campaign in which he posted 22 goals and 85 points, he has struggled to become the offensive leader this team so desperately needs.

Part of the problem lies in the system Trotz employs; a system that while effective at limiting the number of scoring chances by the opposition, has had the unintended consequence of stifling many of their own. Then there's the toll that playing such a physical style of hockey exacts on the human body. Yes, it helped them beat the Boston Bruins in last year's conference semis, but it eventually caught up with them against the Tampa Bay Lightning. By game seven, they looked gassed.

But the real problem is Lamoriello himself, who since his hire four years ago has failed to address the lack of scoring. Why is that? Put succinctly, Lamoriello has long eschewed stars. Maybe it's because he doesn't like dealing with egos. This goes back to his days when he ran the New Jersey Devils. To be fair, the Devils did win three Cups and reached the finals five times. But they also had the best goaltender in the business in Martin Brodeur and one of the best defenseman to ever play the game in Scott Stevens. As good as Ilya Sorokin and Noah Dobson have been this season, they can't hold a candle to those two.

Since the beginning of March, the Islanders are 6-11 against playoff teams, and they continue to have one of the most anemic offenses in the league. But rather than cut his losses at the trade deadline by moving unproductive players like Josh Bailey and Anthony Baeuvillier (12 goals a piece) for badly needed draft capital, Lamoriello doubled down and extended perennial grinder Cal Clutterbuck another two years.

Much has been made of the Rangers offseason acquisitions of Barclay Goodrow, Sammy Blais and Ryan Reaves. But while they may have stiffened up their spine a bit, this is still a team that relies on stars like Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox to carry them. The sad truth is there isn't a single Islander capable of doing that for this team. Not one. There is such a thing as having too much grit.

Ironic, isn't it, that the Islanders are wearing numbers 22 and 9 on their jerseys in memory of Bossy and Clarke Gillies, who also passed away this year. Those two hall of famers were members of one of the greatest dynasties in NHL history. They won four consecutive Cups from 1980-83; the last time a team won more than two in a row. Yes, they outworked their opponents; but they also dominated them, as well. I oughta know, one of those opponents was the Rangers, who had the misfortune of losing to them in '81, '82, '83 and '84.

At the end of the day, talent counts, even in a league as backwards as the NHL. It's time Lou Lamoriello woke up and smelled the caffeine.

Imagine What Might've Been

Beginning in 2019, the NBA decided to use a weighted lottery system to determine which team had the privilege of going first in the draft. The decision couldn't have come at a worse time for the New York Knicks, who had the league's worst record at 17-65 and were looking forward to drafting Duke power forward Zion Williamson with the number one pick. Thanks to the bean counters in the league offices, they now had no better than a 14 percent chance of landing him.

Well as fate would have it, the New Orleans Pelicans, the team with the 7th worst record, wound up winning the rights to Williamson; the Knicks got the third pick, which they used to pick Williamson's teammate, RJ Barrett.

At the time, Barrett was considered a solid choice for a rebuilding Knicks team that was desperately looking to turn the page from yet another disastrous front office administration. But while Barrett has been a good, if unspectacular, player for New York, it was the second overall pick, which belonged to the Memphis Grizzlies, that has garnered the majority of headlines over the last three seasons.

Ja Morant is generally acknowledged to be an elite point guard and one of the most exciting players in the NBA. And in a league that rewards its stars the way kids are rewarded with ice cream for cleaning their rooms, Morant has his team solidly in 3rd place in the Western Conference, while the Knicks are mired in 12th in the East. 

Imagine what might've been. Imagine if the Knicks, instead of picking third, went second. Imagine Ja Morant wearing the blue and orange in the most famous arena in the world. Imagine what coach Tom Thibodeau could do with a budding star like Morant in his back court. The Knicks would be a contender instead of a sub-500 team that, with a bunch of middling players last year, over achieved and were ousted in the first round by the Atlanta Hawks.

It is axiomatic that in today's NBA, teams that do not have elite-level talent simply don't succeed. Take a look at the standings. Without exception, each team at or near the top has at least one player that can carry his team. The Sixers have Joel Embiid; the Nets have Kevin Durant; the Warriors have Steph Curry; the Suns have Chris Paul.

Unlike the NHL, which for some reason rewards its less talented teams by allowing them to neutralize the advantage superior talented teams have once the postseason begins, in the NBA, the cream always rises to the top. If the Knicks shot pucks instead of hoops, they'd be the Islanders. Hard as it is to believe, last year, the boys from Uniondale were five wins away from a Stanley Cup championship, and they didn't have a single scorer in the top 40. Go figure.

But, alas, the Knicks shoot hoops, and as it turns out, not very well. As a basketball team, they're not bad; they're just not all that good, especially against the top teams in the league. Julius Randle, last year's most improved player, tries hard every night. He just isn't a star; nor is Barrett, or anyone else on this team.

After last year's early exit, you'd think that Leon Rose would've spent the offseason moving heaven and earth to acquire a star that could've transformed this franchise into a bonafide contender. Someone like, say Damian Lillard, the Portland Trailblazer point guard who, while not quite on Morant's level, is considerably better than either Kemba Walker or Evan Fournier, both of whom played for the Boston Celtics last year. While the Celtics are currently five games over .500, the Knicks are five under. You can't tell me that for the right package, Rose couldn't have landed Lillard. You can't.

And now, with the trade deadline a few days away, it's time for Rose to think big picture. Having a team full of sixth-men just isn't going to hack it. You don't get an E for effort in the NBA; what you get is a big fat L. Case in point, the game against the Lakers the other night. Despite jumping out to a twenty point lead in the first half, the Knicks had no answer for LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the third quarter. They eventually lost in overtime.

That's been the story of this team all season long. Game in and game out, early leads dissipate once the other teams stars take charge. In the end, all the perspiration in the world can't overcome the dearth in talent. I don't care how good your coach is - and Thibodeau is one of the game's best - he can't shoot, or pass, or rebound. Athleticism, or a lack thereof, is the ultimate determining factor.

I've been a Knicks fan since the 1970s. I remember, fondly, the '73 team that had the likes of Walt, Clyde Frazier, Dave DeBusschere and Earl, the Pearl, Monroe. Under the guidance of coach Red Holzman, they won the NBA championship that season. That would be the last title this franchise would win. In all the years since, they've been to the finals twice: '94 and '99, with no cigar.

Great players come and go, most of them wearing the opposition's uniform. In the '80s, it was Bird and Magic; in the '90s, it was Jordan and Shaq. Like the Four Tops used to sing, it's the same old song. The only thing that changes is the date on the calendar.

Dissecting What's Wrong With the Islanders

There have been a number of surprises in the NHL so far this season; some pleasant, some not so pleasant. Two of the more pleasant surprises have been the Minnesota Wild and the Calgary Flames. Both are leading their respective divisions; the former with the second-best offense in the league and the latter with the stingiest defense. The Flames might be the biggest surprise of all; last season in a realigned North Division, they couldn't even beat out a Montreal Canadiens team that had no business being in the playoffs. As things stand now, they are the early odds-on favorite to emerge from the Western Conference.

Heading up the not so pleasant surprises are the New York Islanders, a team that last season was five wins away from hoisting the Stanley Cup, and the year before fell six games short. As of this writing, they are tied with the Canadiens for the third fewest points in the league with 15; only the Ottawa Senators (13) and the Arizona Coyotes (12) have fewer.

Many have speculated as to what happened to this team. After careful consideration, I have come up with three things:

1. The early schedule. There's no getting around it. Opening up with thirteen straight road games to start the season was a tactical blunder. The moment management - and by management, I mean Lou Lamoriello - knew that UBS Arena was not going to be ready in time for the beginning of the 2021-22 season, there should've been a backup plan in place. You can't tell me that Lamoriello couldn't have arranged to play a couple of games at the Barclay Center or the Nassau Coliseum until UBS was ready. Forcing this team to play away from home for a month took its toll on the players. At one point, they were 5-2-2; then the roof caved in on them. Inexcusable.

2. The injury bug and Covid outbreak. As if the road trip from hell wasn't bad enough, the injury bug bit them, and right after that a Covid outbreak hit. When they finally did open their season at UBS, almost half the roster was either on IR or in quarantine. Not even the deepest of teams can overcome that many players being out of the lineup. In all fairness, the league should've postponed their games against the Maple Leafs, Rangers and Penguins. They looked like a minor league team out there against those opponents.

3. The offense has been MIA. Even before the start of their eleven game skid, the Isles were hardly an offensive juggernaut. Over their first nine games, they scored 25 goals, an average of 2.8 goals per game. Indeed, during the Lamoriello / Barry Trotz reign, this team has consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in goals for while finishing near the top in goals against. The problem with relying on a formula that puts so much emphasis on defense at the expense of offense is that your margin for error is already slim. During this losing streak, they scored a paltry 13 goals. That's an average of 1.2 goals per game. No matter how good your defense is - they currently rank 6th in the league - you still need to put the puck in the net in order to win. Players like Matt Barzal, Brock Nelson and Anders Lee are simply not good enough to carry this team. Anywhere else, they'd be second or third liners, at best.

Throughout his long and brilliant career, Lou Lamoriello has eschewed stars for underachievers who were willing to check their egos at the door for the good of the team. When he ran the New Jersey Devils, his teams specialized in employing the trap, one of the most boring systems ever thrust upon the NHL. It led to five finals appearances, three Cup championships and universal scorn from more talented teams who were often frustrated by the discipline Lou's players exhibited.

Since Lamoriello and Trotz arrived on the Island, no team in the NHL has been more difficult to play against than the Islanders. Their patience and brand of physicality are tailored made for deep playoff runs that over the last two years damn near paid off. So successful was their strategy, I picked them to win the Stanley Cup this season.

But the rash of injuries and Covid cases has exposed a fatal flaw in Lamoriello's method of madness. At a time when the team desperately could've used an elite player or two to carry them through this period, the plethora of gritty players he has assembled have been badly overmatched. When you live by the sword, you sometimes die by it. And right now, this team is hemorrhaging.

However, it's still early in the season. This team should be back to full strength before Christmas. If they can get back to the .500 mark by the end of December, there's still a chance they can sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard. And if they do sneak in, they will be very difficult to beat.

How difficult? Just ask the Tampa Bay Lightning, who needed all seven games in last year's semifinals to dispatch them, what it's like to play against the Islanders. Or the Boston Bruins, who got the shit kicked out of them in last year's quarterfinals. The only thing harder than losing to the Islanders, is beating them. Of the last four games they lost, all were by one goal, three in overtime. Does anyone think for a moment that with a healthy lineup those couldn't have been wins?

They have the goaltending, they have the defense. The only thing that might trip them up is that they happen to play in the Metropolitan Division, the best division in hockey, and they've already lost a lot of ground. If they don't turn this thing around soon, they will eventually run out of time.

But if I were a betting man, I wouldn't place any significant amount of money on that happening.

2021-22 NHL Predictions

I'm not a big fan of regular season predictions because too many things can go wrong during the course of an 82 game schedule. Injuries, for one. Still, given this will be the first full schedule in three years, I thought I'd stick my big toe in the water. So, here we go.

Eastern Conference:

Atlantic Division:

Tampa Bay Lightning: Yes, they lost their entire third line and the center on their fourth. But this team is loaded with talent; their defense is intact; and they still have the best goaltender in the world, not to mention the second best coach in the league in Jon Cooper.

Boston Bruins: David Krejci's unexpected retirement hurts, as does the loss of Tuuka Rask. Still, the Marchand line is the best line in the league and that should carry them to a solid second place.

Florida Panthers: They went all out to acquire the depth they believe will get them over the hump. The only problem is their best goaltender is the guy not making $10 million a year. Hard to see them making a deep run with this group.

Metropolitan Division:

New York Islanders: They lost Jordan Eberle in the expansion draft, but Lou Lamoriello was able to keep the rest of this core intact, including their "identity" line which has given every team in the league fits the last three years. The defense is lights out, the goaltending is solid and, oh yes, they have Barry Trotz.

Carolina Hurricanes: Hard to figure what they were thinking letting Dougie Hamilton go in free agency. Tony DeAngelo can score, but as Rangers fans know all too well, his defense leaves a lot to be desired. The forwards are deep enough to keep them in the hunt.

New York Rangers: Chris Drury overhauled the lineup just enough and hired the right coach for this still very young team.

Wild Cards:

Toronto Maple Leafs: Replacing Zach Hyman with Nick Ritchie won't help a team that relies too much on finesse. Yes, they'll qualify for the playoffs again, but then that's not the problem, is it?

Washington Capitals: This team is starting to show its age but they'll be good enough to squeak in.

Western Conference:

Central Division:

Colorado Avalanche: They were forced to let Brandon Saad go because of the salary cap, but they have the best one-two punch in the league with Nathan MacKinnon and Gabriel Landeskog, plus Darcy Kuemper is an upgrade in goal.

Winnipeg Jets: They have arguably the second best goalie in the league in Connor Hellebuyck and one of the best centers in Mark Scheifele. Defense is good if unspectacular.

St. Louis Blues: They have the goaltending to contend and they added a couple of solid forwards to an already deep lineup.

Pacific Divison:

Vegas Golden Knights: What's there not to like? They play an uptempo, physical-style of play, and assuming the guys in white coats don't come for Robin Lehner, they should run away with the division.

Edmonton Oilers: Zach Hyman was a good pickup, albeit at a high price. But the operative question remains can this top heavy team advance in the postseason?

Vancouver Canucks: They have a future super star in Elias Pettersson and former Ranger J.T. Miller. Questions remain, though, in goal and on D.

Wild Cards:

Chicago Blackhawks: Hoping to squeeze the last ounce of life out of the careers of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, they went shopping during the offseason and bagged a couple of nice additions; the biggest one being Marc-Andre Fleury.

Seattle Kraken: Ron Francis was smart to stock up on quality defensemen in the expansion draft. They still don't have a number one center and will likely lead the league in one-goal games, but at least they won't embarrass themselves.

Playoffs:

Eastern Conference Finals: New York Islanders over Tampa Bay Lightning 4-2

Western Conference Finals: Vegas Golden Knights over Colorado Avalanche 4-3

Stanley Cup Finals: New York Islanders over Vegas Golden Knights 4-3

Year End Awards:

Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid, Oilers

Hart Trophy: Artemi Panarin, Rangers

Norris Trophy: Cale Maker, Avalanche

Vezina Trophy: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning

Conn Smythe Trophy: Mathew Barzel, Islanders

  

True Grit

In the end, the Islanders didn't have quite enough to pull off the upset of the decade. The Tampa Bay Lightning were simply too much for them to overcome. Credit Barry Trotz for getting this team - a team which on paper didn't belong on the same ice with the Lightning - as far as it did. Full disclosure, I had them losing to the Boston Bruins in the second round. Indeed, the Lightning looked more like those legendary Islander teams of the '80s than this Islanders team did. Apart from Mat Barzal and Semyon Varlamov, there wasn't one player on this roster who could've cracked that lineup. I know; as a Rangers' fan, I watched them win four consecutive Cups. It was the most painful period of my life.

I hope Chris Drury was watching this series, and I hope he was taking notes. Because this series was a textbook example of what is needed in order for a team to contend in today's NHL. I've been saying this for a while but it bears repeating. Talent alone isn't enough. To win in the postseason, you need grit, and tons of it. 

Question: What do Auston Matthews, Conor McDavid, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin all have in common? Answer: They were all playing golf after the first round of the playoffs because their teams simply weren't tough enough to advance to the quarterfinals. Two years ago, the Lightning ran away with the President's Trophy, posting a record of 62-16-4 and leading the league in scoring with 325 goals. Yet they were swept in the first round by a Columbus Blue Jacket team that checked the hell out of them and limited them to a paltry eight goals in four games. How did the Lightning respond? They added size to their lineup and, lo and behold, the following year they won the Cup. Lesson learned.

Look, I am no fan of the style of play the Islanders and teams like them employ. Truth be told, I miss the good old days when the most talented players in the league were afforded the space they needed to create scoring chances. Back then, you never knew which player might go from one end of the rink to the other and score a dazzling goal that brought the crowd to its feet. Those days are long gone. Blowouts like the one we saw in game five of the Lightning - Isles series have become something of an anomaly. Scores like 3-2, 2-1 and, yes, 1-0 are now the norm.

The sad truth is that even Wayne Gretzky himself would have a hard time scoring today. Yes, he'd still get his points, but he would hardly be called the Great One; more like the Good One. And those Oiler teams that won five Stanley Cups in seven years, might not even have had one if they were forced to play in this league the way it is currently structured. And anyone who thinks that's acceptable should take a gander at the NBA, where the stars rule and the officials do everything in their power to keep it that way. Trust me, a lot of really stupid people in this league are literally running the game into the ground, and they don't seem to give a shit about it. But that's another topic for another day.

As the old saying goes, when in Rome do as the Romans do. You don't have to like the NHL of today, but if you want to succeed in it, you'd better adopt to it. The Islanders may not have had the most talent in the league - they were 20th in goals scored - but they had the heart of a lion, and any opponent that took the ice against them this year was in for the fight of its life. 

I can assure you that had the the Islanders faced off against the 2019 Lightning, the boys from Uniondale would've beaten the pants off them. But with players like Blake Coleman, Pat Maroon, Ross Colton and Barclay Goodrow on the roster, the Bolts outlasted the grittiest team in the NHL. In the final analysis, the Lightning were able to play the Islanders game, but the Islanders were unable to play the Lightning's game, and that was the difference in the series. 

That's why it's imperative that Drury and new head coach Gerard Gallant have the courage to make the changes that are necessary in order to transform this Rangers' team from the jellyfish they are into the warriors they need to be if they ever expect to drink from the Stanley Cup again. The operative question next season will be can Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin adopt their style of play the way Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov were forced to? If so, the Blueshirts have a chance; if not, this rebuild that was started four years ago was all for not and it's back to the drawing board.

You can dismiss the Islanders all you want, but with the exception of the Lightning, no other team in the NHL has been as dominant in the playoffs these past two seasons. The Bruins, the Carolina Hurricanes, the Colorado Avalanche, all were legitimate contenders with imposing lineups, and all failed to make it past the second round. Believe me, this is not a game for the faint of heart; in fact, it's the closest thing North America has to Rugby. You may hate Casey Cizikas, Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck all you want, but know this: Drury would give his eye teeth to have all three on his team. And deep down so would you.

To those who are clamoring for the Rangers to trade for Jack Eichel, you better pray you don't get your wish. Even if he's healthy - and that's a HUGE question mark - he's the last thing this team needs right now: another skater who loves to shoot on the fly. The smart move would be to spend the $10 million Eichel would cost on some wingers who can inflict serious pain on opposing defensemen. They're out there; in fact, it looks very much like Coleman and Goodrow will be available if for no other reason than the Lightning won't be able to afford to keep them. That's what happens when you're in cap hell.

Yep, July will be a busy month for the NHL. For the Rangers, it will be the most consequential month quite possibly in the franchise's history.

Coaching Matters

Chris Drury will be making a lot of important decisions this year. Who will the Rangers protect going into the Seattle Expansion Draft? Who will they select in the Entry Draft? Which player or players will they add to or subtract from next season's roster? But the decision that will have the biggest impact on the fortunes of this franchise, and the one Drury can't afford to screw up, is who will be behind the bench when the season starts?

As any trainer knows full well, you can have the best horse in the world, but if you don't have the right jockey, you're not going to win many races. Since Barry Trotz departed the Washington Capitals for the New York Islanders, the Isles have won five playoff series in three seasons, the Caps have won none.

The job Trotz has done since arriving in Uniondale has been nothing short of extraordinary. Not since the glory days of Al Arbour have the Islanders had a coach with a resume like this. Consider that going into the 2018-19 season, the Isles lost their captain and best player, John Tavares, to the Toronto Maple Leafs in free agency. Not only didn't they miss him, they went from 7th in the Metropolitan division to 2nd, and from 31st in the league defensively to 1st. Last year, they were two wins away from going to the Stanley Cup finals.

This year's team struggled to score goals and finished 4th in the pandemic-constructed East division. Their best offensive player, Anders Lee, went down with an ACL tear. And yet, even with all that, they managed to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Boston Bruins in consecutive series. The latter team was considered a legitimate contender for the Cup.

The reason for this is simple: Trotz has gotten his players to buy into a hard-nosed, defensive-style of play that frustrates opponents and forces them into making mistakes. And those mistakes then get converted into scoring opportunities. This team clogs the passing lanes better than any team I've seen in years. Wayne Gretzky would have a hard time scoring against the Islanders.

Despite not having a single player on his roster finish in the top 40 in league scoring, Trotz was able to role four lines this post season - a testament in large part to Lou Lamoriello's predecessor Garth Snow. That proved to be the difference maker, particularly against Boston. While the Bruin's top line of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak had a good series, the other three lines were completely ineffective. By contrast, Trotz got significant contributions from every line. Part of that is talent; the rest is simply great coaching.

The Rangers are a team with a lot of talent; some would say more talent than the Islanders. What they don't have is the right coach who can get the most out of that talent. David Quinn was a good teacher, and that no doubt was beneficial on a team with so many young players. But he struggled to reach veterans like Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin, and with the former entering his walk year, it is vital that the next coach be able to get through to those players.

Gerard Gallant might be that coach. Like Trotz, he has an impressive resume; he came within three victories of being a Stanley Cup-winning coach. Yes, he was fired from his last two gigs, but apart from that he checks all the boxes. Good with young players, connects with veterans. I wouldn't have a problem if Drury inks him to a contract.

But it would behoove him to at least put in a call to Rod Brind'Amour. With the Carolina Hurricanes having been dispatched by the Tampa Bay Lightning in five, Brind'Amour is now a free agent. Reports are that owner Thomas Dundon has an offer on the table worth $1.8 million per year for three years. That's a lot of bread for Raleigh. In Manhattan, it's practically minimum wage. 

Bottom line, James Dolan has the resources to make Brind'Amour a very wealthy man. By wealthy, I'm talking $5 mill per year guaranteed over five years. The question is does Brind'Amour really want to leave a situation where he's laid down roots and has a team that is a player or two from winning a cup?

That's why Drury needs to feel him out and see where his head is at. Perhaps Brind'Amour takes a look at the Rangers roster and thinks maybe this could be the next Lightning in the making and he wants in. Or perhaps he sees what happened to John Davidson and Jeff Gorton, wants no part of that circus and just uses Dolan's money to entice a better offer from his owner.

Either way, Drury has to find out. Gallant will still be there, especially since the Columbus Blue Jackets have opted to promote someone from within their own organization to fill their head coaching vacancy. What Drury can't afford to do is pass up an opportunity to get what I believe is the third best coach in the NHL. The first two are Trotz and John Cooper of the Lightning.

Larry Brooks has an excellent piece in the New York Post about just how far away the Rangers are from the Islanders that's required reading.

You watch the Islanders and you see that three of their four lines can be utilized as checking units, every one other than the Leo Komarov-Mat Barzal-Jordan Eberle trio. Brock Nelson, between Josh Bailey and Anthony Beauvillier, can center a matchup line. Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s unit with deadline expatriates Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri can handle the assignment. And we know that the Matt Martin-Casey Cizikas-Cal Clutterbuck Identity Line can take on any line on any team.

Three checking lines for the Islanders.

Not a one for the Rangers.

Of course, Brooks left out one very important detail: with the exception of Pageau, Martin, Zajac, and Palmieri, all of the above forwards - plus Tavares - were here four years ago, and as I pointed out above, they finished an abysmal 7th in the division and dead last in defense. The reason why this team is now eight wins away from a Stanley Cup championship is because of the man behind the bench. If Drury doesn't get that, than everything we've read about him over the last few weeks is good for shit.

During the 1980s, I was forced to watch an Islanders team reel off four consecutive cups while the team I rooted for spun its wheels in futility. The hard cap will probably prevent the Isles - or any team - from doing that again. What it won't do is save a Rangers organization with a long history of screwing up from a repeat performance.

Rangers Face Tough Challenges In Pursuit of Cup

53 wins, 113 points, both franchise bests. The New York Rangers go into the 2015 post season as a clear-cut favorite to win the Stanley Cup. They are healthy and they have won 6 of their last 7 games.  What could go wrong?

Well, at the risk of being called a Debbie Downer, there are three legitimate obstacles standing in the way of the Blueshirts' quest to secure their first championship in 21 years. I'll list them in no particular order.

1. A crowded field. As I pointed out in my last posting, while the Rangers have had a helluva regular season and are most definitely the NHL's favorite son, they are by no means an only child. The Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington Capitals are all genuine contenders to get to the finals. The Canadiens' Carey Price, injured in last year's conference final, is healthy and a legitimate Vezina Trophy candidate. If the Rangers meet them - a strong likelihood should they advance to the third round - Price could go toe to toe with Henrik Lundqvist. If the series goes seven, the Habs are certainly capable of winning at the Garden. Translation? The Rangers are hardly a lock to make it back to the finals.

2. A woeful power play. If there is an Achilles heel to this team, it is their power play, or rather lack of one. The Rangers' power play finished an anemic 16.7 percent, tied for 21st in the NHL. In their last game against New Jersey, the Devils, borrowing a page out of the Broadstreet Bullies' era - handed the Rangers seven power play opportunities. They converted just one. That simply isn't good enough for a team looking to hoist the Cup. The Capitals, by contrast, boast the number one power play in the league. In what promises to be a low-scoring post season, special teams will play a crucial role. If opposing teams know they can take liberties with the Rangers without paying the price, this could be a very short playoff run. The only saving grace here is that the Canadiens' power play is just as woeful.

3. The Presidents' Trophy curse.  Since the trophy was first awarded in 1986, only eight teams that have won it have gone on to win the Cup. Eleven failed to even make it to the conference finals. More ominous was that Alain Vigneault coached two of those failed trophy winners in Vancouver. One of them a first round exit to the L.A. Kings in 2012; the other a thrilling seven game loss to the Boston Bruins in the 2011 finals. Speaking of the Bruins, they were last year's Presidents' Trophy winner, and they lost in the second round to the Canadiens. In fact, of the last six Cup winners, only one, the Chicago Blackhawks, sported the league's best record. And that was during a lockout-shortened season. Being number one isn't all that it's cracked up to be.

But while the Rangers do have some challenges, it's only fair to say that, all things being equal, I would much rather be in their skates than anybody else's. There's a reason why they won the Presidents' Trophy. They were clearly the best team this season. Despite losing their number one goalie, and arguably the NHL's best net minder, the Rangers not only didn't miss a beat, they went into fifth gear. They are the league's fastest and deepest team and they have the three best defense pairings of any playoff team. Since mid December, they have been in a league of their own. After enduring the likes of John Tortorella for five seasons, this team has a quiet confidence that Tortorella's never had. Alain Vigneault has gotten these players to buy into his system and the results speak for themselves.

So round one begins Thursday against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Blueshirts should have little trouble getting past them. The Pens have been dreadful down the stretch and are missing half their defense due to injuries. And Marc Andre Fleury will be no match for Henrik Lundqvist in goal. It will be crucial for the Rangers to not get extended deep in this round. Five games should suffice.

After that, the Caps or the hated Islanders await. That series should go at least six games. Buckle your seat belts, kids. We're in for quite a ride.