Wednesday, July 2, 2025
Drury Silences the Critics, for Now
Sunday, May 5, 2024
NHL Playoff Preview (Round Two)
One round is in the books - almost. Three to go.
Round two begins Sunday afternoon with the New York Rangers hosting the Carolina Hurricanes at Madison Square Garden. We'll have to wait until later tonight to find out who gets the "pleasure" of playing the Colorado Avalanche: the Vegas Golden Knights or the Dallas Stars. The only surprise so far was how badly the Winnipeg Jets played. The number one defense in the NHL during the regular season got lit up like a Christmas tree by the Avs, and the likely Vezina trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck surrendered a total of 24 goals on 177 shots over five games for a save percentage of .870.
Just like I did in the last round, I will begin my preview of round two with the Rangers and work my way down by conference. I do this in fun, so no wagering.
Eastern Conference:
New York vs. Carolina: For the third time in four years, these two teams will meet in the postseason. The Hurricanes beat the Rangers 3-0 in the 2020 Qualifying Round; the Blueshirts returned the favor two years laster, winning 4-3 in the Eastern Conference semifinals. This will be the first time since round one in '20 that Carolina won't have home ice in a playoff series.
Both teams disposed of their first round "opponents" in short order: the Rangers in four; the Hurricanes in five. Both teams are genuine Cup contenders with elite-level talent that are capable of going all the way. Both are well coached and both have excellent special teams. Ten different players scored for the Rangers against the Caps, while twelve different players scored for the Canes against the Isles, so clearly depth is not an issue for either team.
Since their last playoff meeting, the Rangers and Hurricanes have made changes to their rosters; the former by signing center Vincent Trocheck, the latter by acquiring winger Jake Guentzel at the trade deadline. Both players have improved their respective teams. If Filip Chytil, who's been out with a concussion since November, plays, that will give the Blueshirts a third scoring line.
Two years ago, the Rangers had a huge advantage in net. That won't be the case this time around. While Igor Shesterkin is still the better goalie, Frederik Andersen, who was out due to injury in '22, narrows the gap significantly for the Canes. There'll be no blowouts in this series. Expect a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games with both teams winning at least one game in the other's arena. Look for Peter Laviolette to use the Alex Wennberg line on the Sebastian Aho line.
This series will go the distance. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes overtime to decide the winner. Rangers in seven.
Florida vs. Boston: For those assuming the winner of the Rangers / Hurricanes series is a lock for the finals, I would advise them to cool their jets. Florida was quite impressive in their five-game takedown of the Tampa Bay Lightning. There isn't a weakness on this Panthers team. They have depth throughout their lineup and elite goaltending. Meanwhile, the Bruins needed a full seven games to defeat a Toronto Maple Leafs team that was without Auston Matthews for two of those games. I doubt the Puddy Tats will need that many to do the same to them. Panthers in five.
Western Conference:
Dallas or Vegas vs. Colorado: The Avalanche went through the Winnipeg Jets like shit through a goose. They won't be so fortunate against either the Stars or the Golden Knights, both of whom are putting on a clinic for how hockey is supposed to be played. That's because both teams are considerably deeper and faster than the Jets and can go toe to toe with the Avs. Stars or Golden Knights in seven.
Vancouver vs. Edmonton: In some respects this might be the most intriguing series of the playoffs. The Canucks have made several trips to the finals, but have never won the Cup. The Oilers haven't won it since the glory days of Gretzky and Messier, but have come up short over the last few years. Rick Tocchet might win the Jack Adams award but it's Kris Knoblauch who's gotten Connor McDavid and Co. to commit to playing defense. If Thatcher Demko can't go for Vancouver, this could get ugly. Oilers in six.
In the event the Rangers don't advance, these are my predictions for the balance of the playoffs and year-end awards:
Playoffs:
Eastern Conference Finals: Panthers over Hurricanes 4-2
Western Conference Finals: Stars or Golden Knights over Oilers 4-3
Stanley Cup Finals: Panthers over Stars or Golden Knights 4-3
Conn-Smythe Trophy: Matthew Tkachuk
Year-end Awards:
Hart Trophy: Nathan MacKinnonJack Adams Award: Rick Tocchet
Wednesday, December 27, 2023
NHL Power Rankings: Separating the Contenders From the Pretenders
Thursday, June 15, 2023
Drury Has His Coach. Now Comes the Hard Part
Monday, May 8, 2023
Who Will Drury Hire to Replace Gallant?
Wednesday, May 3, 2023
Now What?
Thursday, June 30, 2022
Latest Pierre-Luc Dubois Rumors Have That "Déjà Vu All Over Again" Look and Feel
It was about this time last year that rumors started surfacing about Jack Eichel being traded to New York in a mega deal that lit up the Twitterverse. The names that were being tossed around as a possible return haul included Filip Chytil, Kaapo Kakko, a number one pick and a prospect or two. Putting aside Eichel's neck injury - which thankfully has healed since - it was simply too steep a price to pay, I argued at the time. And besides, the contract ($10 million AAV) would hamper Chris Drury's ability to field a roster capable of competing in an NHL that demands, above all else, depth.
Well, as it turns out, Eichel wound up in Vegas, and the Rangers, with a slightly more robust lineup, had their best season in seven years, advancing all the way to the Eastern Conference finals before finally losing to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Funny how things have a way of turning out.
Fast forward a year and another high-profile center's name has popped up as a potential trade target for the Blueshirts. To be clear, Pierre-Luc Dubois would make a great addition to the Rangers lineup. He's young (24), big (6'3" 218 lbs), and, unlike Eichel last year, completely healthy and ready to go on day one. And, as Larry Brooks wrote in The New York Post, he was Artemi Panarin's center back in the days when both played for the Columbus Blue Jackets, so there's no chemistry issue here.
I confess, the thought of this team having two number-one lines next season intrigues me. It also would make it harder for opposing coaches to key on Mika Zibanejad's line the way Rod Brind'Amour and Jon Cooper did in last year's playoffs. And let's be honest, the Rangers haven't had a genuine one-two punch since 1997 when Mark Messier and Wayne Gretzky were reunited for the last time. That was twenty-five years ago!
But I keep coming back to a salary cap that increases about the same way glaciers melt. The last two seasons, the cap was stuck at $81.5 million; next season, it increases to $82.5 million; and the season after that, it goes up to $83.5 million. It won't be until the 2025-26 season that the salary cap will resume its pre-pandemic upward trend. In the meantime, every general manager in the league will have to make some hard and unpleasant choices with respect to their rosters. Just yesterday, Minnesota Wild GM Bill Guerin was forced to trade the rights to RFA Kevin Fiala in exchange for a first round pick because they couldn't afford to re-sign him. The explosive winger finished second in team scoring behind Kirill Kaprizov. Think about the anguish that must've caused Guerin, who now has the unenviable task of finding a replacement for such a talented player.
Guerin isn't the only GM up against it. In Colorado, Joe Sakic is going to lose the services of his number two center in Nazem Kadri to free agency because the Avalanche don't have the cap space to re-sign him. In Florida, Bill Zito has about $3 million in cap space with which to sign six players. I imagine he's going to have a pretty busy summer. If Panthers fans thought it couldn't get any worse than being swept in the second round, just wait until they take a gander at what next season's roster is likely to look like. To quote the late, great Robin Williams, "Reality, what a concept."
Compared to what some of his fellow brethren are going through, Drury is living the high life. Including Vitali Kravtsov and Braden Schneider, the Rangers have 16 players on the active roster. The maximum number allowed is 23. That leaves them with about $10 million available to sign seven players. If he can unload Patrik Nemeth's contract, he would have an extra $2.5 million in the kitty, but then he would have to find someone to replace Nemeth, so some of that $2.5 million would be re-allocated.
Assume for a moment that Winnipeg GM Kevin Sheveldayoff is in a good mood and only asks for Filip Chytil and a draft pick in return for Dubois. Let's also assume that Vladimir Putin pulls all his troops out of Ukraine tomorrow while we're at it. The Rangers would gain $2.3 million in cap space, but would have to sign Dubois, who last season earned $5 million and is arbitration eligible. That means even without a long-term deal, Dubois is looking at an increase of somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.2 million. If the Rangers want to avoid a messy arbitration battle, they will have to come to the table with a substantial offer. Think $7 million x 7 years. That comes out to $49 million over the duration of the contract. And that assumes Dubois would even agree to that number. Let's not forget it costs a bit more to live in New York than it does in Manitoba. For what a two-bedroom apartment in Manhattan goes for, you can buy three four-bedroom, two-bath houses in Winnipeg and still have enough left over to buy your own Zamboni.
But let's say they get it done. Consider the ramifications here. The Rangers would have a staggering $51.1 million committed to just six players. That's 62 percent of the team's salary cap. To put that in perspective, the top six players on the Toronto Maple Leafs comprise 65 percent - $53.5 million - of the team's salary cap. And the last time the Leafs won a playoff series, George Bush was still insisting the U.S. had won the war in Iraq. With K'Andre Miller and Alexis Lafreniere both up for extensions in '23, the Blueshirts are staring at cap hell. Is this really the model Drury wants to adopt? A roster so top heavy it will fail in the postseason? Somehow I doubt it.
What I think is going on here is that Drury is exploring all his options, which is the smart thing to do. Only a fool would shut the door on the possibility of adding a player as talented as Dubois. And Drury is no fool. But make no mistake about it, he took notes during the playoffs and he knows that even though they were denied in their quest for a threepeat, the Tampa Bay Lightning model is the correct way to go. If he's not entirely sold that Chytil has what it takes to assume the duties of 2C, and he's unable to re-sign Andrew Copp to a manageable number, he will look outside the organization for a player that will meet the team's needs while affording him the financial flexibility to build a Stanley Cup championship roster.
That's how every team that's been successful has done it in the cap era. The fact is, as exciting as fantasy teams might be, they seldom win in the playoffs. That's why they're called fantasy teams.
Sunday, May 29, 2022
Rangers Have the Opportunity of a Lifetime
The Rangers took care of business Saturday night. After their "tired" performance in game five, in which they managed a paltry 17 shots on goal, they limped out of Raleigh on life support. A loss at the Garden meant their season would be over. So they summoned what resiliency they had left and beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-2.
Don't be fooled by the score. The Blueshirts got two soft goals in the first period off Antti Raanta, who was lifted after Filip Chytil went top shelf on him early in the second. The Canes outshot the Rangers in every period and had the better scoring chances. If Igor Shesterkin had been playing for Rod Brind'Amour last night, this series would be over and we'd be talking about the 2022-23 season.
And now they hit the road, where they are 1-5, to play a team that is 7-0 at home, for the right to play the two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference finals. The Rangers are 4-0 in elimination games, so theoretically a win is possible. But in the three games they've played in Raleigh so far, this resilient team has managed exactly two goals, one off a turnover in game one and the other on a power play in game five. Sadly, the Rangers have given zero evidence that they are capable of mustering the kind of sixty-minute effort it would take to advance and every indication that when the final buzzer sounds Monday night, they and not the Canes will be the ones headed home.
So why am I cautiously optimistic about their chances? Two reasons and they both have to with who's in goal. The fact is Igor Shesterkin doesn't play for Rod Brind'Amour; he plays for Gerard Gallant, which means that any game he suits up for is a game he is capable of winning, er, stealing. Ask Mike Sullivan what he thinks about Shesterkin. The Pittsburgh Penguins threw the kitchen sink at him in the third period of game seven and couldn't beat him. Anybody else in that net and Artemi Panarin doesn't get to score that power play goal in overtime.
As for Antti Raanta, he's starting to show why he's been a backup goaltender his entire career. There was simply no excuse for that performance in the first period. He whiffed on a shot by Tyler Motte and was cleanly beaten five hole by Mika Zibanaejad. Igor would've stopped those shots; in fact, any half-way competent net minder would've stopped them. His body language after getting pulled by Brind'Amour was all you needed to know. I'm telling you he's teetering and if the Rangers are smart, they will make the most of the opportunity the hockey gods have bestowed upon them.
Despite getting thoroughly outplayed and outshot in game five, the Canes only had a one-goal lead with just over seven minutes to go in the third period, and if Adam Fox handles that loose puck at center ice instead of muffing it, who knows what might've happened?
Now imagine if the Rangers manage to establish even a modest forecheck Monday night. Let's say they get a "soft" goal on Raanta early, the score is tied at two late in the third and Carolina gets called for a penalty. Now imagine a one-timer by Zibanejad with just under two minutes left.
You might be thinking that's quite an active imagination you have there, Peter. To be fair, it is far fetched. But here's the thing: with six minutes to go in the third period of game seven against the Pens, the Rangers were trailing by a goal and looked for all the world like they were done. Then all of a sudden, Andrew Copp wrestled a puck out of the corner and fed Zibanejad for the tying goal. You know the rest.
This entire season, the Rangers have confounded the so-called analytics experts. Their ability to stare death in the face and come away unscathed has paid huge dividends. Of course, it doesn't exactly hurt that they have the presumptive Vezina trophy winner playing for them. Consider that not once in these playoffs have they led in a series. They trailed the Pens 1-0 and 3-1 before coming back; they trailed the Canes 2-0 and 3-2 before coming back. They seem to relish being the underdog; it has served them well.
With all the talk about how the Rangers have had a difficult time playing a full sixty minutes, it's not like the Hurricanes have dominated this series. Games one and two could easily have gone either way; they got outplayed in game four and they were downright sloppy in game six. Yes, they're 7-0 at home in the postseason, but the problem with going to the well that many times is that sooner or later your bucket comes up dry.
Bottom line, yes the Rangers can win game seven, but to do so, they will have to play considerably better than they did in game five. They are going to have to manage the puck well, avoid turnovers at center ice, and get the puck in deep. Shesterkin will keep them in the game as long as he can, just like he has done throughout the playoffs, but the Rangers will have to meet him half way.
They have the talent, now they have to find the will.
Monday, May 23, 2022
Rangers Get Just Enough
Saturday, May 21, 2022
Playing Not To Lose Is No Way To Win
Wednesday, June 16, 2021
Drury Goes With Gallant
Thursday, June 10, 2021
Coaching Matters
You watch the Islanders and you see that three of their four lines can be utilized as checking units, every one other than the Leo Komarov-Mat Barzal-Jordan Eberle trio. Brock Nelson, between Josh Bailey and Anthony Beauvillier, can center a matchup line. Jean-Gabriel Pageau’s unit with deadline expatriates Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri can handle the assignment. And we know that the Matt Martin-Casey Cizikas-Cal Clutterbuck Identity Line can take on any line on any team.
Three checking lines for the Islanders.
Not a one for the Rangers.
Thursday, May 20, 2021
Rangers Need To Find Their Own Tom Thibodeau
Before I get to the Rangers head coaching vacancy, I want to send a shoutout to "JD" John Davidson, who according to The New York Post, will be rejoining the Columbus Blue Jackets as President of Hockey Operations, his old job. JD was a class act and he deserved a much better fate than the one he got at the hands of James Dolan. I wish him nothing but the best.
Now onto to the head coach.
With all the talk about rebuilding, it's worth noting that the most successful rebuild going on at Madison Square Garden has nothing to do with the hockey team. It involves the basketball franchise that since the 1972-73 season has made the finals just twice. The New York Knicks are the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference and this Sunday they will begin a best of seven series against the Atlanta Hawks.
Just seeing the words "Knicks" and "postseason" appear in the same sentence is like seeing the words "Nickelback" and "outstanding rock band" appear in the same sentence. Well almost. Since their last trip to the NBA finals in 1999, the Knicks have made the playoffs six times and only twice have they advanced to the second round. Going into this season, they had seven consecutive losing campaigns.
The man most responsible for this tremendous turnaround is head coach Tom Thibodeau. Not since the glory days of Red Holzman have the Knicks had a coach who commands the respect of his players the way this man does. A coach who is equal parts teacher and disciplinarian; a coach who preaches defense first, and who got his players to buy into a team concept in a league that is obsessed with individual stats. If Thibodeau isn't coach of the year, the award is meaningless.
As Chris Drury conducts his search for the next head coach of the Rangers, he would be wise to take a good hard look at what his counterpart - Leon Rose - accomplished by hiring Thibodeau, and then copy it. The days of a head coach screaming at his players is over. To earn their respect, coaches these days have to wear multiple hats: Yes, they still have to hold players accountable, but not by humiliating them the way John Tortorella often did. To succeed with today's players, coaches have to have a temperament that can both inspire and correct at the same time.
As much as I liked David Quinn, he just wasn't able to get through to the veterans on this club. Players like Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin resisted Quinn's calls for a more conventional north-south style of play that teams like the Islanders and Bruins have adopted successfully. The result was that this team, exciting to watch though they may have been, severely underachieved and missed the postseason, despite having more talent than last year's roster.
Whoever Drury hires as Quinn's replacement has to be able to harness that talent while also convincing it that this isn't the 1980s anymore. Today's NHL is about aggressive forechecking and driving to the net. It's about taking care of your own end first and getting the puck in deep. No reckless, cross-ice passes that can wind up in the back of your net. You get a scoring chance, you take it. Period!
The Capitals / Bruins series is a case in point. All three games in this best of seven series so far have gone into overtime and all three have been low-scoring affairs. No 9-0 or 8-3 blowouts. No sequence of three or four passes by self-indulgent players trying to come up with that "perfect" shot that in the postseason almost never materializes. The best teams in the league are simply too quick and too big to let that happen. The core of this Rangers team never fully accepted that reality. The next head coach will be tasked with driving it home.
With that in mind, who will Drury choose? So far, Gerard Gallant is the only candidate that's been interviewed. Gallant has an impressive resume. In his last two stints as HC he led the Florida Panthers to a second division title and the Vegas Golden Knights to the Stanley Cup finals during its inaugural season. However, Gallant was fired from both jobs in only his third year behind the bench, and that is a red flag for a team looking for long-term stability.
Another candidate is former Arizona Coyotes' head coach Rick Tocchet. Though the Coyotes severely underperformed during Tocchet's four-year reign, the team's defense did improve dramatically. Last year, it was 3rd in the league. The Coyotes also made the play-in round in 2020 and beat the Nashville Predators before losing to the Colorado Avalanche in the first round of the playoffs.
We likely won't know until after the playoffs are over who the next Rangers head coach will be. That's because one candidate is Rod Brind'Amour of the Carolina Hurricanes who is unsigned beyond this year. In his three seasons behind the bench, the Hurricanes have been one of the toughest teams in the NHL to play against. Last year, they swept the Rangers in the play-in round. This season, they finished first in the Central Division and came within two points of winning the President's Trophy. They currently have a 2-0 lead over the Predators in the first round of the playoffs and are among a handful of teams that have a legitimate shot of winning the Stanley Cup.
Brind'Amour wouldn't be the first Stanley Cup-winning head coach to switch teams. Barry Trotz left the Washington Capitals after they won the Cup in 2018 to become the Islanders' head coach. And let's not forget Mike Keenan, the last Rangers' coach to hoist Lord Stanley, departed for the St. Louis Blues barely a month after the season ended.
The bottom line is this: In addition to deciding on a head coach, there's the upcoming Seattle expansion draft as well as the league draft, not to mention off-season trades and/or potential free-agent signings. Drury has a lot on his plate. The moves he makes over the next couple of months will go a long way towards determining whether the Rangers progress as an organization or slide into oblivion. One thing's for certain: with Dolan taking a sudden interest in the hockey operations, you can bet the ranch Drury's leash will be a short one.