NHL Playoff Preview (Round Two)

One round is in the books - almost. Three to go. 

Round two begins Sunday afternoon with the New York Rangers hosting the Carolina Hurricanes at Madison Square Garden. We'll have to wait until later tonight to find out who gets the "pleasure" of playing the Colorado Avalanche: the Vegas Golden Knights or the Dallas Stars. The only surprise so far was how badly the Winnipeg Jets played. The number one defense in the NHL during the regular season got lit up like a Christmas tree by the Avs, and the likely Vezina trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck surrendered a total of 24 goals on 177 shots over five games for a save percentage of .870.

Just like I did in the last round, I will begin my preview of round two with the Rangers and work my way down by conference. I do this in fun, so no wagering.

Eastern Conference:

New York vs. Carolina: For the third time in four years, these two teams will meet in the postseason. The Hurricanes beat the Rangers 3-0 in the 2020 Qualifying Round; the Blueshirts returned the favor two years laster, winning 4-3 in the Eastern Conference semifinals. This will be the first time since round one in '20 that Carolina won't have home ice in a playoff series.

Both teams disposed of their first round "opponents" in short order: the Rangers in four; the Hurricanes in five. Both teams are genuine Cup contenders with elite-level talent that are capable of going all the way. Both are well coached and both have excellent special teams. Ten different players scored for the Rangers against the Caps, while twelve different players scored for the Canes against the Isles, so clearly depth is not an issue for either team.

Since their last playoff meeting, the Rangers and Hurricanes have made changes to their rosters; the former by signing center Vincent Trocheck, the latter by acquiring winger Jake Guentzel at the trade deadline. Both players have improved their respective teams. If Filip Chytil, who's been out with a concussion since November, plays, that will give the Blueshirts a third scoring line.

Two years ago, the Rangers had a huge advantage in net. That won't be the case this time around. While Igor Shesterkin is still the better goalie, Frederik Andersen, who was out due to injury in '22, narrows the gap significantly for the Canes. There'll be no blowouts in this series. Expect a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games with both teams winning at least one game in the other's arena. Look for Peter Laviolette to use the Alex Wennberg line on the Sebastian Aho line.

This series will go the distance. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes overtime to decide the winner. Rangers in seven.

Florida vs. Boston: For those assuming the winner of the Rangers / Hurricanes series is a lock for the finals, I would advise them to cool their jets. Florida was quite impressive in their five-game takedown of the Tampa Bay Lightning. There isn't a weakness on this Panthers team. They have depth throughout their lineup and elite goaltending. Meanwhile, the Bruins needed a full seven games to defeat a Toronto Maple Leafs team that was without Auston Matthews for two of those games. I doubt the Puddy Tats will need that many to do the same to them. Panthers in five.

Western Conference:

Dallas or Vegas vs. Colorado: The Avalanche went through the Winnipeg Jets like shit through a goose. They won't be so fortunate against either the Stars or the Golden Knights, both of whom are putting on a clinic for how hockey is supposed to be played. That's because both teams are considerably deeper and faster than the Jets and can go toe to toe with the Avs. Stars or Golden Knights in seven.

Vancouver vs. Edmonton: In some respects this might be the most intriguing series of the playoffs. The Canucks have made several trips to the finals, but have never won the Cup. The Oilers haven't won it since the glory days of Gretzky and Messier, but have come up short over the last few years. Rick Tocchet might win the Jack Adams award but it's Kris Knoblauch who's gotten Connor McDavid and Co. to commit to playing defense. If Thatcher Demko can't go for Vancouver, this could get ugly. Oilers in six.

In the event the Rangers don't advance, these are my predictions for the balance of the playoffs and year-end awards:

Playoffs:

Eastern Conference Finals: Panthers over Hurricanes 4-2

Western Conference Finals: Stars or Golden Knights over Oilers 4-3

Stanley Cup Finals: Panthers over Stars or Golden Knights 4-3

Conn-Smythe Trophy: Matthew Tkachuk

Year-end Awards:

Hart Trophy: Nathan MacKinnon

Jack Adams Award: Rick Tocchet

Norris Trophy: Quinn Hughes

Vezina Trophy: Connor Hellebuyck

Two Close for Comfort

Two up, two down, two to go. 

Seems like I wrote those words before. Know what? I did. Last year, in fact, after the New York Rangers took a 2-0 lead over the New Jersey Devils in their best of seven series. And then the roof fell in as the Blueshirts dropped four of the last five games. Season over and out.

If you're a fan of this team, you can be forgiven for experiencing a sense of déjà vu. Because, quite frankly, we've seen this movie before, and it never ends well. 

Now, before I go any further, one thing needs be cleared up: the Washington Capitals are NOT the Devils. New Jersey was one of the best teams in the NHL last season; the Caps barely qualified for the postseason and had one of the worst regular-season goal differentials for a team qualifying for the playoffs in league history.

Which makes last night's 4-3 win at the Garden something to be concerned about. Yes, the Rangers defended their home ice; and, yes, the Capitals needed to come out with a much better effort than they showed in game one. But no one who objectively watched that game could come away thinking the Rangers dominated play. Apart from stretches in the first and second periods, the Caps more than held their own with the Presidents' Trophy winners. New York was pinned in its own zone for the last three minutes of the third period, desperately clinging to a one-goal lead that had been a two-goal lead before the home team stupidly took a too-many men on the ice penalty that Washington cashed in on. Overall, the Caps went 2-5 with the man advantage after going 0-4 in game one. As I wrote in my playoff preview, since the All-Star Break, Washington has the number one power play in the league at 28.9 percent. It would behoove the Rangers to do their best to stay out of the penalty box the rest of this series.

Look, do I think history will repeat itself? No, I don't. The Capitals simply don't have the talent to keep up with a Rangers team that is clearly deeper and more skilled. Through two games, eight different Rangers have scored a goal, including the big guns: Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider.

And to be fair, when you look at how the other first-round matchups are going, it's not like any team, save for one, has a stranglehold over its opponent. In fact, the Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets, Dallas Stars and Boston Bruins have all lost the home ice advantage in their respective series. It wouldn't surprise me if at least one of those teams wound up getting booted.

My concern isn't with this round, it's with the next. Because if a team like the Caps can make the Rangers work that hard, just imagine what the Carolina Hurricanes are going to do to them. Did you see how they handled the Islanders the other night in Raleigh? The Canes made the Isles look like an AHL team, outshooting them 17-1 in the 3rd period. Between the two teams, it's Carolina that has a better shot of sweeping its opponent than the Rangers. If the Blueshirts believe they're going to take four out of seven from that team playing like they did against the Caps, they have another thing coming.

Thirty years ago, another Rangers team made quick work of a Capitals team that was a huge underdog. That team went on to win the Stanley Cup. Will this Rangers team follow in that team's footsteps?

Only time will tell.

Rangers Serve Notice on the NHL

Something special is happening with the New York Rangers; something we haven't seen in a very long time. Since losing to the Nashville Predators at the Garden on October 19, the Blueshirts have gone 13-1-1. At 15-3-1, they sit atop the Metropolitan Division, and by virtue of their 7-4 win over the Boston Bruins on Saturday. and the subsequent loss by the Vegas Golden Knights to, of all teams, the Arizona Coyotes, they are in first place in the NHL.

A little over two weeks ago, I wrote a piece in which I asked "How good are these Rangers?" Well, the answer is in. These Rangers are damn good! Just check out the stats below:

Goals allowed: 45 (Fewest)

Goal differential: 21 (3rd)

Power play percentage: 30% (tied for 3rd)

Penalty kill percentage: 85.7% (tied for 7th)

Save percentage: .920 (2nd)

Face off win percentage: 55% (1st)

Record against winning teams: 9-1-0

And not to beat a dead horse, but they've played virtually the entire month without their best defenseman Adam Fox and their number two center Filip Chytil. They were also without the services of their Vezina trophy-winning goaltender Igor Shesterkin for over a week. Far from being a problem, the absence of these players appears to have made this team more resilient and tougher to play against. Can you imagine how much better they'll be once Fox and Chytil return?

Grit typically isn't a word you associate with the Rangers, but this season, it's become their mantra. Bad calls by the officials don't seem to rattle them; injuries to key players are opportunities for others like Tyler Pitlick, who scored his first goal of the season Saturday, to step up. If this team were a professional boxer, they'd say, "Is that all you got?" This might be the tightest locker room in the league.

If there's any cold water you can throw on them, it's that their Corsi for shot percentage at 5v5 has dropped considerably from 8th a month ago to 18th. But given that the Bruins and Golden Knights - currently the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the league - are 22nd and 17th respectively in that category, I wouldn't be too concerned. Head coach Peter Laviolette doesn't appear to be. And if there's one thing Laviolette is not known for, it's hiding his feelings. Trust me, if there was a problem, he and his coaching staff would be all over it.

That's not to say that everything is hunky dory. For all their grit and resiliency, the Rangers still haven't quite mastered Laviolette's system. And at various times this season, they've fallen back into an old and familiar habit of not putting forth a full sixty-minute effort. On their most recent road trip, they were badly outplayed by the Dallas Stars, Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers in the 3rd period. That they found a way to win two out of three is a testament to the brilliance of both Jonathan Quick, who pitched a shutout in Pittsburgh, and Shesterkin, who appeared to find his game in Philly after a couple of rusty starts in Dallas and New Jersey.

This "bend but don't break" issue came to define the team during Gerard Gallant's tenure in New York, and I'm sure it's one that Laviolette would like to exorcize as soon as possible. Relying on your goaltender to consistently bail you out is not a long-term strategy for success, as last year's early exit against the Devils proved.

But all that aside, this team looks nothing like that Gallant team. For one thing, unlike last season, they aren't waiting for the playoffs to begin to flip a switch. From day one of training camp, Laviolette has sold these players one simple concept: postseason success doesn't start in April; it starts in September. The hard work and sacrifice that you put into the Fall and Winter months prepares you for the marathon that awaits you in the Spring. It's the reason why the Stanley Cup remains the hardest trophy in all of sports to win. Many a talented team has had their hopes of hoisting that precious chalice dashed because they weren't ready, either physically or mentally, for the challenge.

Laviolette has been down this road before. He was successful once. He knows how hard it is, and he has communicated as much to his players. So far, based on the standings, they seem to have gotten the memo.

Look, two weeks ago, I cautioned everybody not to jump to any conclusions. It wasn't even Thanksgiving yet, I wrote. Well, Thanksgiving has come and gone and, lo and behold, this team is for real. Furthermore, they have served notice on the NHL. Sleep on us at your own peril.

The goal could not be more clear. Like that legendary Cup team of 30 years ago, the Rangers are focused on the ultimate prize and are prepared to pay any price to achieve it. 

Why I'm Bullish on the Rangers

Let's face it. The way last season ended left a bad taste in Rangers fans mouths. After jumping out to a 2-0 series lead against the Devils, the Blueshirts dropped four of the next five games. Three of those losses, including the series clincher, weren't even competitive. Once more, the franchise that has won exactly one Stanley Cup since World War II went home early.

Chris Drury did not take it well. The President and G.M. fired his head coach Gerard Gallant and replaced him with Peter Laviolette, whose resume includes three trips to the finals and one Cup. With the limited cap space he had, Drury then went out and signed three forwards to shore up the bottom six, a defenseman to play on the third pairing and a backup to Igor Shesterkin. No Vladimir Tarasenko, no Patrick Kane, no big splash.

It's easy to understand how some could look at the Rangers offseason and be skeptical about their prospects going into the 2023-24 campaign. As someone who's followed this team since 1971, I've learned the hard way not to get my hopes up. When Jon Matlack asked Jerry Grote what he could expect pitching for the Mets, Grote replied, "If you don't allow a run, I guarantee you at least a tie." Some fan bases are conditioned to be happy with what they can get.

But after giving the matter considerable thought, I think it would be a huge mistake to sleep on this team. To be honest, I'm rather bullish on their chances. And not because I'm an incurable optimist. If anything, I'm more jaded now than I was 30-40 years ago. I just have a hunch that this team, which has broken more hearts than Taylor Swift at a Jets game, might catch lightning in a bottle.

There are three reasons for my optimism:

The core: After getting off to a sluggish 11-10-5 start last season, the Rangers went 36-12-8 the rest of the way. That's a .642 winning percentage. Only the Boston Bruins - at .793 - were better. They accomplished this mostly without the assistance of Tarasenko or Kane, who despite their impressive bonafides, wound up disrupting the chemistry on this team. That no doubt was a contributing factor in their early exit.

With Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba, Ryan Lindgren and Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers have one of the more impressive cores in the NHL. If the kids take the next step and fulfill their promise, this will be a very tough team to play against this season.

Blake Wheeler, Nick Bonino, Tyler Pitlick and Erik Gustafsson are the sort of complimentary players Tarasnko and Kane never were. While other G.M.s overpaid for their free agents, Drury didn't panic and got good value. Given what he had to work with, he had himself a helluva good summer.

The coach: Four times over the last 30 years, the Rangers have brought in a more experienced coach to turn around a roster that had underperformed the previous year: Mike Keenan in 1993; John Tortorella in 2009; Alain Vigneault in 2013; and Gallant in 2021. With the exception of Tortorella, every hire paid immediate dividends. The '94 Rangers won their first Stanley Cup since 1940; the '14 Rangers went to the Cup finals; and the '22 Rangers went to the Eastern Conference finals.

While it's no slam dunk that Laviolette will replicate his predecessors success, it's worth noting that in his first full season behind the bench in Carolina, the Hurricanes won the Cup; four years later in his first year as head coach in Philadelphia, he took the Flyers to the finals. Everywhere he goes, his teams win. If that isn't a good omen, I don't know what is.

Laviolette's two greatest challengers will be 1) to convince a team that is used to playing an east-west style of hockey to play a more north-south style; and 2) to get Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko to play like the top six forwards scouts predicted they'd be when they were drafted number one and two respectively. David Quinn and Gallant each failed at both. The hope is that Laviolette will be the proverbial third time charm.

The Eastern Conference: The hockey gods have a strange sense of humor. Last season, the Atlantic division was stacked with the Boston Bruins winning the President's Trophy going away and the Tampa Bay Lightning vying for their fourth consecutive trip to the finals. In the Metro division, both the Devils and Hurricanes had outstanding seasons.

This season, the Metro will still be tough, but in the Atlantic, both the Bruins and Lightning have had roster turnovers that will weaken them considerably. Tampa will be without goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy until mid December. Nobody knows what to make of the Florida Panthers. Are they the team that came within three wins of capturing the Cup? Or are they the team that got swept in the second round in '22. And let's face it, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the Cleveland Browns of Canada. Any team that gets out of the Metro should be the odds-on favorite to advance to the finals.

I'm not saying the Rangers will have an easy path; far from it. But they have had success against the Canes. And if they can find a way to contain the Devils speed, there might be another banner hanging in Madison Square Garden.

Prognosis: Like that 2013-14 team, which went 16-18-2 in their first 36 games, I fully expect the Rangers to struggle out of the gate. They were 1 for 18 on the power play during the preseason. Not a good sign. Going all the way back to game three of the Devils series last season, they're 2 for their last 39. That has got to change. For this team to be a contender, they must have a productive power play.

Assuming they hit their stride by early December, the Rangers should once again finish third in the Metro; the Kids will blossom under Laviolette; and Shesterkin will lead them to their first Stanley Cup in 30 years.

Rangers Have the Opportunity of a Lifetime

The 2023 NHL postseason has certainly seen more than its fair share of surprises. As of last night, 43 playoff games have been played and the road team has won 27 of them. That comes out to a road winning percentage of 62.8. How unusual is that? Through the first round of last year's playoffs, the road team had won only 22 of a possible 51 games for a winning percentage of 43.1. Home cookin' it seems ain't all it's cracked up to be this postseason.

And that bodes well for a Rangers team that in a best of seven series against the New Jersey Devils, won its first two games on the road, then dropped the next two at home. In any other year, facing a game seven on the road, the Rangers would likely be polishing up their golf clubs, especially given that in ten road games last year, the Blueshirts won only twice. Though to be fair, one of those wins did come in Raleigh against the Hurricanes, so I guess anything is possible.

The Bottom line is that this will not be your typical road game for the men in blue. Not only do they have a chance against the Devils, but based on what happened last night, they should be the favorites to win. That's because last night, both the Presidents' trophy winner Boston Bruins and the Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche lost their respective game sevens in their buildings.

Presidents' trophy winners shitting the bed in the first round are not that rare an occurrence. It's happened six times in the cap era. The Bruins are just the latest example of why it's so hard to be a dominant team over an 82-game regular season AND still have enough left in the tank for a grueling playoff run. Boston looked gassed last night against a Florida Panthers team that on paper had no business being on the same ice with them. Oh, well.

But getting back to the Rangers. While the hockey gods may be favoring the road teams this postseason, by no means are they a lock to advance. That's because the Devils are one of the best teams in the NHL. Like I said before the start of the playoffs, this was the worst possible opponent the Rangers could've drawn in the first round. Since game two, New Jersey has been the better and quicker team in the series. And even though the Rangers finally managed to solve Akira Schmid in game six, it was only due to the sheer brilliance of their own goalie Igor Shesterkin that they managed to get to a seventh game. With a GAA of 1.79 and a SV% of .939, he has been, by far, the best player on either team.

But while beating this Devils team will not be an easy task, the Rangers must find a way to do so. Here's why. Both the Bruins and the Tampa Bay Lightning are gone. The Carolina Hurricanes look more like a MASH unit than a hockey team. The Toronto Maple Leafs are literally the only thing standing between the winner of this series and a trip to the Cup finals. An opportunity like this might not come around again for a very long time.

But if the Rangers need another incentive to win, it's this: The Devils are on the verge of becoming the team to beat in the Eastern Conference for the foreseeable future. Think about it. Both the Bruins and the Lightning are past their primes; the Canes, even when they're healthy, are not a legit contender; the Leafs have more skeletons in their closet than a haunted mansion on Halloween; the Islanders will never amount to anything so long as Lou Lamoriello is running the show; and the Rangers window to win is maybe two to three more years at best. To quote Elvis Presley, "It's now or never."

Chris Drury has assembled a team that is ready to win this year, not next year or the year after that. He has put all his chips on the table. A failure in the first round against the Devils will be a bitter pill to swallow for the entire organization. That is why, come hook or crook, the Rangers must find a way to not let that happen.

So how do they avoid playoff Armageddon? For starters, they must stop trying to skate with New Jersey. The Rangers may be the deeper team, but they are not the more athletic one. Trying to match speed with them is tantamount to a suicide mission. What the Rangers need to do is control the neutral zone like they did in games one and two.

That won't be easy. The Devils are not the same team they were in the first two games. To use a Star Trek vernacular, they've gone from sub-light to warp eight. Letting them off the ropes in game three might be the single-worst playoff mistake the Rangers have ever made.

Another thing they have to is dump the puck into the offensive zone and get in on the forecheck. Both the Zibanejad and Tarasenko goals in the second period of game six came as a result of the Rangers pinning the Devils in their own zone. As skilled as New Jersey is, they are not very physical. The one advantage the Rangers have is their size; they must use it or lose it.

Shesterkin will give them every chance to win tonight, but he cannot single-handedly drag them across the finish line. The stars have to come through. There is no tomorrow if they don't.

I predicted the Rangers in seven and I'm sticking with it. So far, I've been wrong twice: the Bruins and the Avalanche. Let's hope it stays that way. 

Power Outage

There are two ways of looking at Saturday night's 2-1 OT loss to the Devils. 

One, for the third consecutive game, the Rangers did a good job with their puck management, limiting the number of odd-man rushes New Jersey had out of their zone. Indeed, had the Blueshirts converted on just one of the five power plays they were awarded, they most likely would've won in regulation and we'd be talking about a potential sweep tonight.

Two, the Rangers let the opportunity of a lifetime slip through their fingers, and now they have to deal with an opponent that is not only alive and well but is one win away from taking control of this series; a series, to be honest, they have no business even being in.

In this instance, both statements are true. Yes, the Rangers have been, by far, the better team in this best of seven matchup. They have set the tempo in all three games and have forced the speedy Devils to work hard for what little scoring chances they've gotten. Dougie Hamilton's overtime winner was the first 5v5 goal his team has scored in nine and half periods. Think about that.

But like any wrestler knows all too well, you never let your opponent off the mat once you have him pinned. And the Rangers were on the verge of pinning the Devils with both shoulders. Less than a minute after Chris Kreider scored to make it 1-0, Ryan Graves was called for interference. All the Rangers had to do was score on their ensuing power play and it would've been 2-0. Not quite game, set and match, but pretty damn close. Let's put it this way, the fat lady would've been warming up her vocal cords between periods.

I cannot stress this enough. It is vital that the Rangers come out guns a blazin' tonight. No pussy footin' around. Enough with the mutual admiration society posing as a power play unit. This isn't an NHL all-star game; it's a playoff round; the first of what the Rangers hope will be four. At the Prudential Center, there was no dicking around with the man advantage. When they had the shot, they took it. The results - four for ten on the power play - speak for themselves. 

I don't know what happens to this team when they get in front of their home crowd, but if it isn't nipped in the bud soon - and by soon I mean tonight - they will be playing golf with the Islanders in May.

I'm not joking around here. Saturday night's win gave the Devils something they didn't have before: hope. And to paraphrase a famous line from a well-known movie, "Hope is a dangerous thing." Another win by the Devils and the trajectory of this series will change, perhaps irrevocably. The Rangers will have the unenviable task of having to win three games in their opponent's building. Impossible? No. Improbable? Yes.

The good news is that, for now, the Rangers are still the masters of their own fate. They have the ability to correct what went wrong; they've done it all season. They know the Devils didn't so much win the game as they lost it. And that will work in their favor. Though the Devils escaped with a victory, they are by no means out of the woods. Technically speaking, they are still very much the underdogs in this series, regardless of who Lindy Ruff starts in goal.

And that is precisely where the Rangers must keep them. The Devils will push harder than they did in game three, you can count on that. But the Rangers have the deeper and more experienced team. They were made for moments like this. If they stay focused and disciplined with the puck, and they do a better job finishing around the net - especially on the power play - they'll be playing the Carolina Hurricanes in the next round.

If they don't; if they squander this opportunity and allow the Devils to take the series, it will be the longest summer of their lives.

NHL Playoff Preview (Round One)

Another regular season is in the books. Now it's on to the real season. Sixteen teams - eight in each conference - begin their pursuit of Lord Stanley's Cup. But unlike last season, when the field was pretty much wide open, this time around there's a front runner. The Boston Bruins - 65-12-5 - not only won the President's Trophy going away, they broke both the single-season points record held by the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens (132) and the single-season wins record held by the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning and the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings (62 each).

But while the Bruins may be the odds-on favorites going into the playoffs, there are a couple of potential roadblocks that could upend their dreams of hoisting the Cup. For starters, the President's Trophy curse. Turns out it's a real thing. 

Since the award was first introduced in the 1985-86 season, only eight teams have won both the Trophy and the Cup. And since the lockout of 2004-05, there have been only two: the 2007-08 Red Wings and the 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks. And the Blackhawks, it should be noted, only had to play 48 regular-season games that season thanks to another league-imposed lockout. The point is it's hard to go at full throttle for an entire 82-game regular season and still have enough left in the tank for another potential 27 grueling postseason games.

But the biggest concern for Boston may have nothing to do with whether or not they have what it takes to survive a nine-month long marathon. The fact is going into the playoffs, the Bruins are the third oldest team in the NHL with an average age of 29.9. Only the Washington Capitals (30) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (31.5) are older. And neither of those two teams qualified for the postseason. If the Bruins were to win the Cup, they'd be the second oldest team in the last 25 years to do so. The 2001-02 Red Wings currently hold the record at 30.5.

So, you see, there's hope for the other fifteen teams after all.

Just as I did last year, I'll start with my team, the New York Rangers, and work my way down. As always, take what is said here with a very large grain of salt.

Eastern Conference:

New York vs. New Jersey: Anybody who saw the Devils as a legit Cup contender prior to the start of the season needs to produce the receipts right now. Yours truly had them as a "close but no cigar" team back in October. Led by Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, the Devils are the fastest team in the East and the third fastest in the league. Only the Edmonton Oilers Oilers and the Colorado Avalanche are faster. They were tied with the Buffalo Sabres for the third most goals scored this season with 291, and their goal differential of 65 was surpassed only by the Dallas Stars (67) and the Bruins (128).

I won't mince words here. This is the toughest opponent the Rangers could've drawn in the first round. Unlike last season, when they faced a flawed Pittsburgh team, the Devils have no discernible flaws to exploit. Meaning they're not likely to implode the way the Pens did. Vitek Vanecek may not be Vezina trophy material, but he's hardly Louis Domingue.

To beat the Devils, the Rangers are going to have to be incredibly disciplined with the puck. No reckless cross-ice passes at the blue line that can be intercepted and turned into scoring chances the other way. No selfless play in the offensive zone. If they have the shot, they must take it and not pass it up. They also can't afford to fall behind in these games. Unlike most teams that score early and then go into defend mode, the Devils are always looking to score the next goal. They have one gear in their transmission box: fifth. In their last meeting, the Rangers trailed 2-0 after the first period, and even though they outplayed the Devils over the final forty minutes, they were unable to get the tying goal passed Vanecek. Getting off to a good start must be priority one.

Priority two will be special teams. During the regular season, the Rangers power play was seventh best in the league at 24.1 percent. And while their penalty kill was only middle of the pack for most of the regular season, over the last 16 games, they've given up only three goals while shorthanded 35 times. Prorated, that would be good enough for second best in the league at 85.7 percent. Only the Bruins at 87.3 percent had a higher percentage.

On paper, this Rangers team is better than the one that went to the conference finals last year and was six wins away from their first Cup championship since 1994. They have, arguably, the deepest roster of any team in the postseason, with 20 plus goal scorers scattered throughout their top nine. They also have the better goaltender in the series. Over his last two months, Igor Shesterkin has posted save percentages of .932 and .941 respectively.

But here's the thing: paper doesn't win playoff series; players do. And to win this series, the Rangers best players - Zibanaejad, Panarin, Fox, Kreider, Shesterkin, Trouba and the Kids - are all going to have to be better than the Devils best players - Hughes, Hischier, Meier, Hamilton, Bratt and Mercer. It's that simple.

One caveat to consider. During the regular season, the Rangers had 13 overtime or shootout loses. Among playoff teams, only the Dallas Stars (14) had more. If just six of those OT / SO losses had been wins, the Rangers would have the home ice advantage in this series. That may or may not come back to haunt them.

That aside, though, I expect this series to go the distance, and it's not being overly cliché to predict that the team that makes the fewest mistakes will likely advance to the next round. Rangers in seven.

Boston vs. Florida: The Puddy Tats had a chance to avoid catching the Bruins in the first round. All they had to do was beat the Carolina Hurricanes at home and they'd be on their way to Raleigh next week. But in typical fashion, they flubbed it. Last season's President's Trophy winner now goes up against the real McCoy. The Bruins had the season of a lifetime. They are loaded at every position, and even if they don't go all the way, they have more than enough to throttle the Panthers. I would be shocked if this went more than five games. Bruins in five.

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay: A month ago I would've bet the ranch on the Bolts. But Kyle Dubas did a great job at the trade deadline transforming the Maple Leafs from a one trick pony into a deeper and tougher team. Ilya Samsonov gives Toronto something they haven't had in years: solid goaltending. And let's be honest, this is not the same Lightning team that went to three consecutive finals and won two Cups in a row. Leafs in six.

Carolina vs. Islanders: Am I being too sarcastic to suggest that watching paint dry would be more entertaining than watching these two offensively-challenged overachievers knocked the shit out of each other for a week and a half? The Isles do have the better goaltending, so that should give them a fighting chance. Not having Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty will eventually catch up with the Canes, but not in this round. Hurricanes in six.

Western Conference:

Vegas vs. Winnipeg: The Golden Knights have proven a lot of skeptics wrong this season - myself included. Without one of their top forwards in Mark Stone and with a revolving door for goaltending, they are the number one seed in the West. Congrats to Bruce Cassidy, who did a helluva job behind the bench. They probably don't have the horses to get past Colorado and Edmonton but they have more than enough to dispose of the Jets. Golden Knights in five.

Colorado vs. Seattle: Not having the services of Gabriel Landeskog for the playoffs will severely test the depth of a team that already lost its number two center Nazem Kadri to the Calgary Flames during the off season. If I were the Avs, I'd be a little concerned about facing a Kraken team that can put the puck in the next and, in only its second year of existence, is playing with house money. Avalanche in seven.

Edmonton vs. Los Angeles: Want to hear something crazy? Over the last seven games, the Oilers have given up a paltry six goals. No that wasn't a misprint. The team with the best offense on Planet Earth has goal's against average of under a goal per game in their last seven. Are we witnessing the beginning of the NHL's next dynasty? Oilers in five.

Dallas vs. Minnesota: Last season, the Stars took the Calgary Flames to a game seven in the first round before finally losing to them in OT. This season, they're one of the best teams in the NHL with a potent offense and a solid defense. The Wild will be without Joel Eriksson Ek for at least the first four games of the series. That maybe four too many. Stars in five.

Once the first round is over, I'll make my predictions for round two.

Drury Makes His Move

So much for not making a splash. Less than 24 hours after I confidently predicted Chris Drury would not make any huge moves going into the trade deadline, he reeled in one of the biggest fishes in the pond. Vladimir Tarasenko is now a New York Ranger, along with Niko Mikkola. The former is a member of the 2019 Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues, a six-time 30 goal scorer and a UFA at the end of the season; the latter, also a UFA, is a 6' 4", 209 pound left-handed defenseman who, based on what we saw in the game against the Vancouver Canucks Wednesday night, is Ben Harpur's replacement on the third pairing.

But while Drury may have gone Christmas shopping a bit early - the trade deadline is March 3 - he didn't overpay. To get Tarasenko and Mikkola, the Rangers gave up one of their two first-round draft picks (the lower of the two); a fourth-round draft pick; prospect Hunter Skinner; and Sammy Blais. Drury even got St. Louis GM Doug Armstrong to retain 50 percent of Tarasenko's $7.5 million cap hit. The next time I go shopping for a car, I'm taking this man with me.

Skinner is a prospect the same way I'm a participant in the triathlon. As for Blais, he never fully recovered from his torn ACL, and his $1.5 million cap hit was a luxury the team could no longer afford to carry. Not one single top-tier prospect or current roster player was even on the table. To put this trade in perspective, when the Rangers traded for Andrew Copp last season, Drury gave up two second-round picks, one of which became a first-rounder when the Rangers advanced to the Eastern Conference finals, a fifth-round pick in 2023, and a real prospect in Morgan Barron. So far this season, Barron has 5 goals and 12 points for the Winnipeg Jets, while Skinner has 3 goals and 8 points for Jacksonville of the East Coast League, the A Ball of professional hockey.

And here's the thing: Drury's cart may not be filled yet. That's because on the same day the Rangers consummated their deal with the Blues they put Libor Hajek on waivers. Yes, the last vestiges of that infamous Ryan McDonagh / J.T. Miller trade will soon be gone, along with his corresponding $800k cap hit. Meaning, Drury will have roughly $1.2 million left in the kitty to fortify his fourth line. Like I said, the man is a chess player.

Here's what the Rangers' postseason line-up could look like:

Panarin - Zibanejad - Tarasenko

Lafreniere - Chytil - Kakko

Kreider - Trocheck - Kravtsov

Goodrow - Bjugstad - Vesey

Lindgren - Fox

Miller - Trouba

Mikkola - Schneider

Shesterkin

How's that for a playoff roster? Not bad. In fact, it's a better and deeper roster than the one that came within two games of dethroning the Tampa Bay Lightning last season. Last year, Goodrow was hobbled by a broken ankle and Ryan Reaves was the right wing on the fourth line. Assuming Drury can land Nick Bjugstad, or someone with a comparable skillset, Gerard Gallant will have four lines at his disposal, all capable of putting the puck in the net. Just try checking this team.

There's just one tiny caveat. Tarasenko isn't exactly having a banner year. In 38 games this season, he has a paltry 10 goals and 29 points. Last season, he registered 34 goals and 82 points in 75 games. Over the last three seasons, he's battled the injury bug. If he's fully healthy and motivated, the Rangers may have pulled off the heist of the year; if he isn't, all bets are off.

We'll know soon enough. Tarasenko makes his debut tonight at the Garden against the Seattle Kraken. To quote the late, great Stevie Ray Vaughan: "The house will be rockin'."

Rangers Still Have Some Nagging Concerns

Let's start with the good news. Since Jacob Trouba threw his helmet at the boards in a game against the Chicago Blackhawks at the Garden back on December 3 - a 5-2 loss which dropped their record to 11-10-5 - the Rangers have gone 15-4-3. During that stretch, they put together a seven-game win streak and managed to beat some pretty good teams like the Vegas Golden Knights, Toronto Maple Leafs, New Jersey Devils, Carolina Hurricanes. Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars. Even in three of the losses - 3-2 to the Pittsburgh Penguins in regulation, 2-1 to the Tampa Bay Lightning in a shootout and 3-2 to the Toronto Maple Leafs last night in overtime - the Rangers were the better team for much of the game.

In fact, the only duds I was able to find were a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Washington Capitals coming off the Christmas break and a 2-1 loss against the lowly Montreal Canadiens eleven days ago. Both games were at the Garden. I was tempted to include the 3-1 loss to the Boston Bruins last week, but chose not to. The fact is the Bruins are so hot right now, even if the Rangers had played a perfect game, I doubt they would've beaten them. Boston is on track to finish the season with 139 points. To put that in perspective, the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens, generally acknowledged to be the greatest hockey team ever assembled, had 132.

But here's the bad news. With all that the Rangers have accomplished over the last few weeks, there are still some nagging concerns that need to be addressed if they have any hope of winning the Stanley Cup.

The Power Play continues to struggle. Over the last twenty-two games, the Rangers have converted 14 of 61 power play chances for a 22.9 percent efficiency. On the surface, that doesn't sound too shabby. However, six of those power play goals were scored against the Florida Panthers, Columbus Blue Jackets, St Louis Blues and Blackhawks; teams that play defense about as well as Marv Throneberry used to play first base for the New York Mets; one goal against the Hurricanes was actually a pass that the goalie fanned on; and two more were scored while the Rangers were on a 5 on 3 man advantage. In the five games where the Rangers lost by a goal either in regulation, overtime or the shootout, they went a collective 0 for 12 on the power play, including last night's brutal 3-2 OT loss in Toronto, in which Chris Kreider shanked a tip in of a Mika Zibanejad goal-mouth pass with the Blueshirts ahead 2-1 in the third period. Just one power play goal in each of those games would've likely changed the outcome. Which brings us to the next nagging concern.

Lack of a killer instinct. There's just no way around it. This team, for all its talent, has been unable to put away its opponents. Last season, the Rangers were 48-5-4 when tied or ahead going into the third period. So far this season, the Rangers are 22-3-8 when tied or ahead going into the third. The good news is that they managed to salvage a point in each of those eight OT/SO losses; the bad news is they surrendered eight points that were theirs for the taking. And that's eight points too many for a team that's currently in third place in the Metropolitan division and is trailing the Devils by six points. Think about this. If the Rangers had scored just one additional goal in six of those eight non-regulation losses, they'd be in second place right now, only two points behind the first place Hurricanes. If they had scored an extra goal in all eight games, they'd be in first. That, right there, is the difference between having home ice in the first two rounds of the playoffs vs. playing a game seven on the road in all four.

Now you know why Chris Drury didn't look too happy in the above picture. He watched his team - a very talented team - outplay the Maple Leafs for two and half periods, only to blow a one-goal lead late in the third and lose the game in overtime. He's seen this movie too many times this season and it never ends well. He was tasked by James Dolan to turn this franchise around and make it into a legitimate contender. In just his first full season as GM and President, the Rangers made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals. They were two wins away from their first Cup final appearance since 2014 and six wins away from their first Stanley Cup championship since 1994.

He knows the stakes. He willingly signed up for them. Failure is not an option. This team, with all its warts, must win at least one round in the playoffs; two would be preferable. The fact is, though, if the regular season were to end today, the Rangers would open up against the Devils and likely lose in six or seven games.

That's why these next few weeks are so critical. The trade deadline is March 3. Drury has to find at least one scoring winger and a shutdown center. And he has to be able to acquire both without doing what his predecessor did: mortgaging the future. Assuming he can unload Sammy Blais, either through waivers or by trading him, he'll have over $7 million in deadline cap space. That should be sufficient to get the job done. The problem is he won't be the only GM looking to improve his team's playoff prospects. Across the Hudson, his counterpart Tom Fitzgerald will be working the phones for the Devils. I have no doubt Dolan has made it abundantly clear to Drury that losing to New Jersey is a non-starter. Twice before this organization has been eclipsed by a cross-town rival: the Islanders in the '80s and the Devils in the '90s and '00s. The third time, I can assure you, will not be the charm.

Last season, after 48 games, the Rangers were 31-13-4 for 66 points. This season, after 48 games, they're 26-14-8 for 60 points. Bottom line? This team can still win the Cup. Or it can go out in the first round.

Some Disturbing, Familiar Trends for Rangers

Eight games into the 2022-23 season and a pattern is starting to emerge. Against teams that play a similar style of hockey or are just porous defensively, the Rangers are 3-0-1 and their power play has gone 5 for 17.

But against teams that play a more defensive style of hockey and clog the passing lanes, they're 0-3-1 and their power play is an anemic 1 for 13. And that one power play goal, it should be noted, came courtesy of a defensive giveaway while on a two-man advantage.

The knock on the Rangers last season was that they were a team that relied way too much on their special teams and their elite goaltender Igor Shesterkin. Despite their impressive record - second place in the Metro division, their 5v5 play was middle of the pack at best. 

The acquisitions G.M. Chris Drury made at the trade deadline last March no doubt helped the Rangers advance to the conference finals before finally petering out against the Lightning. Unfortunately, the same trends that dogged them last season have reared their ugly head this season, and if they aren't addressed soon, any hopes this team has of hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup will be dashed.

Stubbornness is their Achilles heel. This is a very talented team that genuinely believes talent alone will carry them across the threshold. Last night's shutout at UBS Arena proved otherwise. Against an Islanders team that didn't have a single goal from its centers, the Rangers were out hustled, and their vaunted power play was unplugged. Don't go by the 41 shots on goal they generated. Ilya Sorokin made maybe six tough saves the entire game.

Even against the Anaheim Ducks, a team nobody expects to be in the postseason, the Rangers were hardly overwhelming. Without the three power goals they scored, they likely would've lost that game too. They are predictable as dirt, and head coach Gerard Gallant must find a way to convince his players to snap out of it.

The good news is that when it comes to underachieving, the Rangers are hardly alone. The Lightning, Maple Leafs, Blues and Predators are 4-4, 4-3, 3-2 and 2-4-1 respectively. All four of those teams made the playoffs last season and all four are expected to return this season. Also, apart from their performance on the Island, in two of the other three losses, they had plenty of chances to win. This season, the Rangers have managed at least 35 shots on goal in six of their first eight games. Last season, they were routinely outshot by their opponents.

Look, there's still time to nip this in the bud. No hockey team wins or loses the Stanley Cup in October. But this group has to make up its mind how badly it wants a championship. As talented as they are, it was their foot soldiers who were responsible for putting the Lightning over the top. Their willingness to pay the price in the trenches was the difference between an early exit and back-to-back Cups. Drury has modeled his team after Tampa Bay. An argument can even be made that the Blueshirts are the more talented team. But like the Lightning learned in 2019 when they won the President's Trophy and were swept by the Blue Jackets in the first round, you need more than talent to win in the NHL.

With the Rangers pretty much at the salary cap ceiling, there's not much Drury can do personnel wise, at least not until the trade deadline. So the onus is on the players to right the ship. They have the grizzle, now they need to find the grit.

It's Time for the Rangers to Move on From Ryan Reaves

Let's be honest here: If Ryan Reaves had been a Ranger during the 2020-21 season, there's no way in hell Tom Wilson would've slammed Artemi Panarin to the ice like a rag doll. There's also no way in hell the Islanders would've manhandled the Blueshirts three straight down the stretch, outscoring them a combined 13-1. The word around the NHL was that the Rangers were soft. And that was putting it mildly.

Reaves' arrival in the summer of 2021 sent a clear and unambiguous message that the days of this team being a patsy were over. From his first shift on opening night, he hit everything in his path. And on those rare occasions when a player who obviously didn't get the memo foolishly decided to take him on, he would glare back at him as if to say, "Dude, you have a choice: you can die of old age or right here and now. Your call." Fortunately, most reconsidered.

Ryan Reaves did his job. This team is respected around the league. Better still, every player in that locker room stands up for each other. When someone is challenged, the whole team responds. I haven't seen a locker room this tight and together since the days when Mark Messier donned a Rangers uniform. Mission accomplished, as far as I'm concerned.

But the sad truth is that if you watched Reaves in the postseason, it was clear that the spirit was willing but the flesh just wasn't up to the task. He was slow, and I mean slow like 1970s Nick Fotiu slow. He was so out of position that he eventually became a defensive liability in his own zone. Frankly, I wasn't surprised that he was a healthy scratch the last couple of games in the Lightning series.

The way the game is played these days you need to be quick on the puck and possess the skills necessary to help your team win. You don't have to be a 20 or 30 goal scorer, but you have to at least keep the other team honest. Apart from his physical prowess, Reaves doesn't do a single thing that can help this team get to the next level, which at this point must be winning the Stanley Cup. He doesn't kill penalties, he's useless four on four, and don't even think about putting him out there on the power play.

With the signing of Vincent Trocheck and the soon to be, any day now, keep your shirt on extension of Kaapo Kakko, the Rangers will have less than $1 million in available cap space if they elect to go with twenty-two players on the roster: thirteen forwards, seven defensemen and two goalies. That's cutting it pretty close. To put that in perspective, last season, the Rangers had the most cap space of any playoff team in the league. That allowed Chris Drury to go shopping for Frank Vatrano, Andrew Copp, Tyler Motte and Justin Braun. I need not remind you what contributions those players made to last season's playoff drive.

Obviously, this season presented challenges for Drury that required some creativity on his part. In addition to finding a replacement for Ryan Strome and extending Kakko, there were the new contracts for Mika Zibanejad and Adam Fox that were kicking in this season to the tune of $8.5 million and $9.5 million respectively. Fortunately, Henrik Lundqvist's buyout was over, so that gave him $1.5 million to play with. There was also the trade of Alex Georgiev to the Avalanche that freed up an additional $2.4 million, $1.5 of which went to Jaroslav Halak. With the Coyotes agreeing to take Patrick Nemeth's contract off his hands, Drury at least had a fighting chance of putting a good team out on the ice.

But no matter how much he sharpens his pencil, there's simply no math that allows Drury to keep Reaves on this team, not if he plans on being active at the trade deadline, which I presume he will be.

If you look at Capfriendly, the way you calculate deadline cap space is by taking the available cap space and multiplying it by 4.65. So a team with, say, $1 million in available cap space would be able to take on $4.65 million in contracts at the trade deadline. With Reaves on the team, Drury would only have about $3 million in deadline cap space. With him gone and a cheaper replacement on the roster, that amount would go up to $7 million.

Why does that matter? Let's say it's March, and Patrick Kane is still a Chicago Blackhawk, and the Rangers are flirting with the best record in the Eastern Conference. Drury places a call to Kyle Davidson to inquire what it would take to pry him away. The two agree on the compensation, but Davidson balks at retaining 50 percent of Kane's cap hit. He wants at least 60 percent and informs Drury he has two other teams that are willing to meet his demands. 60 percent of $10.5 million comes out to $6.3 million. 

Beginning to get the picture? If Drury doesn't have enough deadline cap space, Kane goes to another team, perhaps one in the Eastern Conference like, say, the Carolina Hurricanes. Imagine losing a best of seven playoff series because your opponent was able to snatch up one of the better forwards in the game. Drury cannot let that happen. If there is anyway to get Kane into a Rangers uniform that doesn't involve giving up key assets, he must do it. 

Look, Ryan Reaves has been a solid citizen in the Rangers locker room. He has done everything the organization has asked of him. But it's time to move on. In the era of the flat salary cap where every dollar counts, $1.75 million can better be spent elsewhere, like the final piece on a Stanley Cup championship.