Showing posts with label Filip Chytil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Filip Chytil. Show all posts

Saturday, January 25, 2025

How the Rantanen Deal Impacts Drury's Pursuit of J.T. Miller



In the first blockbuster trade of the 2024-25 NHL season, the Colorado Avalanche sent Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for Martin Necas, Jack Drury and two draft picks - a 2025 second rounder and a '26 fourth rounder. The Chicago Blackhawks, as part of the deal, agreed to retain 50 percent of Rantanen's salary and sent Taylor Hall to the Hurricanes in exchange for a '25 third round pick. 

Leaving aside for the moment that Blackhawks GM Kyle Davidson is a shoo-in for the patsy of the year award for getting a lousy third rounder in exchange for eating half of $9.2 million and relinquishing a still serviceable forward, the Avs are the clear winners here. They get an outstanding young winger under contract next season who is having a career year and a solid checking center for a pending UFA they likely weren't going to be able to re-sign. 

While Rantanen is a better player than Necas, he's not that much better. The fact is this trade does nothing to address Carolina's two biggest needs: elite goaltending and depth at center. Two years after losing Vincent Trocheck to the New York Rangers, the Hurricanes still haven't found a replacement for him. Jesperi Kotkaniemi is at best a 3C. Not only aren't the Canes a better team, you could make the argument they're worse off now than they were before the trade. And if it turns out they can't re-sign Rantanen, this will go down as the most expensive rental in league history. 

Now for the main course: How does this trade impact Chris Drury's pursuit of J.T. Miller? In a word, it improves his chances. With Carolina now seemingly out of the picture and the Vancouver Canucks stuck in a corner, Drury's leverage to land the former Ranger has gone up considerably. Word has it that Miller is pulling a Patrick Kane by informing Jim Rutherford that he will only accept a trade to an Eastern Conference team, preferably the Rangers. If that's so, Drury can wait out his counterpart. 

Stat Boy Steven thinks an acceptable trade would be Filip Chytil, Adam Sykora and a first round pick for Miller (25 percent retained). I would go further and make the first rounder conditional on the Rangers making it to the conference finals. Otherwise, it's a second rounder only. 

Why trade Chytil, especially when he's under contract for the next two seasons at $4.43 million? The reason should be obvious enough. For all his talent, Chytil is a disaster waiting to happen. He missed all but ten games last season after sustaining a concussion in what looked like a rather routine collision with Sebastian Aho of the Hurricanes. Let's face it: every time he gets checked, it's a potential career ender. If Drury can move him for a two-way player that wins face-offs and who scored 103 points last season, he'd be a fool not to.

I know what you're saying - I read your posts on Twitter. Another 31 year old center who's under contract through the 2029-30 season. What on Earth could Drury be thinking saddling the organization with that much term? At least Neil Smith had a Stanley Cup to show for his eleven years in the front office. All Drury has to show for his efforts is two trips to the Eastern Conference finals. But ask yourself this question: if Chytil had been healthy during last year's playoff run, how many more games would the Rangers have won? Maybe it wouldn't have made any difference against a team like the Florida Panthers, or maybe it would've made all the difference in the world. The point is we'll never know. 

What we do know is this: betting on Chytil not to get injured again is like playing Russian Roulette with a loaded chamber. Aside from his leave of absence earlier this year, Miller has missed a grand total of five games over the last four seasons. That's about as durable as it gets in today's NHL. On his first day back in a Rangers uniform he'd be the team's number one center.

Bottom line, unless Vancouver is unreasonable, Drury needs to pull the trigger and make the deal. After going through a hellish December, the Rangers have turned their season around this month. The playoffs are now very much in sight. But making the playoffs is not the goal; winning the Cup is. If J.T. Miller can get them closer to that goal, it's worth taking a shot.


Tuesday, April 30, 2024

How Sweep It Is



It took them two periods to do it, but the New York Rangers finally woke up and took care of business Sunday night in Washington. They broke a 2-2 tie in the third period with a pair of power play goals - the latter an empty-netter - and put the Capitals out of their misery. The 4-0 series sweep - their first since 2007 - gives the Blueshirts a chance to rest up and prepare for their next opponent, which barring the unthinkable, will be the Carolina Hurricanes.

This was a mismatch from the start. In the four games, the Caps led for a grand total of 3:21, while the Rangers led for 139:08. Ten different players scored for New York, including Vincent Trocheck, whose three goals led the team. Mika Zibanejad, who at times during the regular season was seen on milk cartons because he was all but invisible, had a goal and six assists to lead all scorers. And while Hart Trophy candidate Artemi Panarin only scored twice, both goals were game-winners.

This was a balanced and surgical dispatching. Credit Head Coach Peter Laviolette for making sure his players didn't fall into the Capitals trap. I'm sure the Rangers would've preferred a more up-tempo style of play against what was clearly an inferior team; they resisted. The result was a fairly methodical, if sometimes "boring" series that lacked the excitement of some of the series we've seen in the Western Conference.

The point was to win and win quickly, not necessarily decisively. As Larry Brooks adroitly observed, the Rangers showed a "workmanlike approach" in dealing with Washington. Despite the closeness of some of the final scores, I never once thought the Caps were going to win one, let alone four games in this series.

The detractors will try to diminish what the Rangers did here. Let them. Anyone who has watched this team play over the last few years knows full well that they have historically struggled against underachievers like the Caps. Trust me, this series had six games written all over it, which is why I initially had them winning in six. That they swept is a major accomplishment. Those who disagree will have to deal with it. That's a polite way of saying "fuck off!"

Now the real playoffs begin. The Hurricanes will be a far more formidable opponent for the Rangers than the Capitals. They can skate, they can score and they can defend. This series will likely go the distance, which is why having a few days off and the home ice advantage in a potential game seven might very well prove to be decisive. Two years ago, the Blueshirts needed a full seven games to defeat both the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Hurricanes. The wear and tear of two long and brutal series eventually caught up with them against the Tampa Bay Lightning. That won't be the case here. If the Rangers don't win, it won't be from lack of rest.

While I'll wait until just before the start of the next round to write my formal preview, there is one thing that I think needs to be said: Matt Rempe has likely played his final game in the playoffs. Look, I like the kid; he kind of reminds me of Ed Hospodar. But let's face it: he's an unfinished product that against a team as skilled as the Hurricanes will prove to be a defensive liability. So bad was his play away from the puck that Laviolette limited him to just over five minutes of ice time the last two games of the Caps series. Plus there's a bullseye on his back. The interference penalty he took in game three was a borderline call that almost everybody who saw it deemed a hockey play. It's obvious the NHL has him in their crosshairs. Why give the refs an excuse to put you a man down? You think the Canes are going to go 2-17 on the power play? Neither do I.

So who will take Rempe's place? The logical choice is Filip Chytil. The center was medically cleared to play two weeks ago and has been practicing with the team ever since. If Laviolette believes his conditioning is up to snuff, there's no reason not to insert him in the lineup where he can either center the third line or play LW on it. If it's the former, that would mean Alex Wennberg drops down to the fourth line where he could center a line of Barclay Goodrow and Jimmy Vesey. That would give the Rangers arguably their best checking line since, dare I say it, 1994. It would also give them the scoring depth they are going to need to advance deep into the postseason.

But, thankfully, that decision won't have to be made for at least a few more days. For now, the Rangers can sit back and enjoy the fruits of their labor. They've earned it.


Thursday, March 14, 2024

Chris Drury's LTIR Nightmare



It's only been three games but already Jack Roslovic and Alex Wennberg have made an impression on their new teammates. Roslovic, playing right wing on the Zibanejad line, almost scored a goal in his first game and helped set up goals in his next two: one against the New Jersey Devils; the other against the Carolina Hurricanes. Wennberg with an assist in his first game, has solidified a third line that has badly needed a center to replace the injured Filip Chytil.

The analytics for both lines are considerably better than they were a week ago. Indeed, over the last three games the Rangers top three lines at 5v5 are above 50% GF percentage. That means they are on the ice for more goals for than against at 5v5. It is no coincidence that Chris Drury's trade deadline acquisitions have had a lot to do with this recent uptick. For the first time since the start of the season, the Rangers roster is finally set.

But while the playoffs are still a month away, Drury has a dilemma on his hands that he will have to deal with over the summer. That's because he has a huge decision to make regarding Chytil's status. The center went down with what is believed to be his third concussion of his career in a game against the Hurricanes on November 2 and has been out of the lineup ever since. A month ago he attempted a comeback and while practicing at Madison Square Garden collapsed and had to be helped off the ice. It was at that time that the Rangers decided to shut him down and keep him on LTIR for good.

And while his $4.43 million cap hit was put to good use, along with that of Blake Wheeler's $800k cap hit, no one knows for certain what will happen with Chytil next season. As I see it, there are three possible outcomes here.

1. Chytil, upon being told he will likely never fully recover, decides to retire. In that event, he remains on LTIR, allowing the Rangers to use his cap hit towards other players.

2. Chytil, upon being told he will likely never fully recover, decides not to retire, but instead chooses to collect his full salary, which he is entitled to under the CBA. In that event, he remains on LTIR, allowing the Rangers to use his cap hit towards other players.

Both of these outcomes would give the Rangers plenty of cap space to re-sign Wennberg if they want, and with the salary cap going up by $4million to $87.5 million next season, that should be enough cap space to re-sign Kaapo Kakko, Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider. Brendon Othmann could potentially replace Roslovic on the top line. Problem solved.

But then there's a third outcome that could prove nightmarish for Drury.

3. Chytil is told he will likely never fully recover but insists on trying a comeback anyway. He somehow gets medical clearance to resume skating, and after a few weeks is medically cleared to rejoin the team. The problem for Drury is that the NHL takes a dim view of teams that hide players on LTIR for the purpose of getting cap relief, unless of course you're the Vegas Golden Knights or the Tampa Bay Lightning.

If Drury re-signs Wennberg to a four year deal with, say, a $4.5m AAV, he would have to clear out enough salary to offset Chytil's cap hit before activating him. Knowing how the league is run, Drury might as well hang a sign around his neck that reads, "Please screw me." Because that's exactly what any competing GM will do. Given how well regarded the Rangers are around the league (sarcasm), the phone calls should go something like this: "Hi, Chris, how you doin'? So Chytil is ready to come back and you need someone to take him off your hands for you? Gee, I'm sorry but I'm not sure I could use him. Of course for a couple of first round picks, I might have some use for him."

Now I'm not saying that every GM will try to do that to Drury; some may actually be sympathetic to his plight and try to help him out. But this much is certain: the longer he waits to move Chytil's contract, the harder it's going to be to do so.

But why move him? After all, if Chytil is medically cleared to play, why wouldn't he want him on the roster, especially after the season he had last year? The reason should be obvious enough. The hit Chytil took from Jesper Fast in the second period of that Hurricanes game was not particularly hard. It's the sort of hit hockey players take all the time. In fact, when it happened, it looked as though Fast got the worst of it. Knowing how the game is played, it is only a matter of time before Chytil gets hit like that again, and when that happens, he will be right back on LTIR.

Drury would be foolish to tie his team's fortunes to the health of a player whose one concussion away from forced retirement. Even if Drury believes that the odds of Chytil making a successful comeback are slim to none, his best recourse is still to move him over the summer. Believe it or not, there is precedent for just such a move. Three years ago, Lightning GM Julian BriseBois was up against the cap, so he traded Tyler Johnson and a second round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for the contract of Brent Seabrook. Johnson's cap hit was $5m and Seabrook's was $6.875m. Seabrook was on LTIR due to an injury that eventually forced him into retirement.

Do the math. $5million plus $6.875million equals $11.875million. If you want to know why BriseBois is considered a genius when it comes to navigating the salary cap, this is why. There isn't a loophole the man doesn't know about or can't exploit. Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon obviously took notes as evidenced by his "maneuvers" at this year's trade deadline.

But wouldn't it make more sense, given the Seabrook example, for Drury to keep Chytil? Under normal circumstances it might. But there's another complication. While Chytil is on LTIR, the Rangers do not accrue cap space. Going into the season, the Rangers had $675k in cap space. With the normal accrual process, Drury would've had roughly $3m by the trade deadline to go shopping. The rash of injuries put the kibosh on that. In effect, all Drury had to work with were the contracts of Chytil and Wheeler which came out to $5.2 million. And before you say the obvious: Isn't $5.2m larger than $3m? Keep in mind, Drury, I'm sure, was counting on a healthy Chytil and Wheeler, along with that $3m when the season started. All the $5.2 million did was allow him to find replacements for the wounded.

The bottom line is this: teams can borrow against players on LTIR, but they can't double dip. It's either or. That's why Drury must trade Chytil's contract. Keeping him only hamstrings the organization and prevents him from doing his job, which is to make this team deeper and stronger.

Look, what happened to Filip Chytil is truly tragic. A promising, young career maybe over at 24. But it would be infinitely more tragic for the Rangers to give in to sentiment. At the end of the day, this is still a business, and Chris Drury, as the President and GM of this franchise, has an obligation, first and foremost, to that franchise.



Thursday, January 4, 2024

Drury Can't Afford To Wait For Chytil


Normally, I'm not one to overreact to a bad loss - and let's just call what happened Tuesday night at the Garden a bad loss - but the New York Rangers have a problem; one that President and General Manager Chris Drury would do well to address before this incredible season begins to unravel.

Just to be clear, the Blueshirts are still in first place in the Metropolitan Division. Their 25 wins lead the NHL. Nor are they the only team to have gone through a slump. For instance, since getting off to an 11-0-1 start, the Vegas Golden Knights, last season's Stanley Cup winners, have gone 11-11-4. The Atlantic Division leading Boston Bruins have had losing streaks of three in a row and four in a row this season. Both teams, so far as anyone knows, are still considered contenders, as are the Rangers.

But unlike those two teams, the Rangers problem is primarily one of personnel, or a lack thereof. At the risk of beating a dead horse, the loss of Filip Chytil to a concussion and Kaapo Kakko to a leg injury has put a strain on a lineup that wasn't exactly bursting with depth to begin with.

When the season started, the Rangers forward lines were:

Chris Kreider - Mika Zibanejad - Kaapo Kakko
Artemi Panarin - Filip Chytil - Alexis Lafreniere
Will Cuylle - Vincent Trocheck - Blake Wheeler
Barclay Goodrow - Nick Bonino - Jimmy Vesey

Not quite the 1985 Edmonton Oilers but more than respectable. Since Chytil and Kakko went down, the Rangers forward lines have looked like this:

Kreider - Zibanejad - Wheeler
Panarin - Trocheck - Lafreniere
Cuylle - Bonino - Jonnny Brodzinski
Vesey - Goodrow - Tyler Pitlick

Pitlick was supposed to be the 13th forward on this team; BrodziÅ„ski is a 30 year old career AHLer who on an average team would have a hard time cracking the lineup. Neither has any business getting the amount of minutes they're getting. As for Bonino, Drury signed him to be a checking center. He belongs on a third line the way Nick Fotiu would belong on a line with Jacques Lemaire and Steve Shutt. 

Drury is undoubtedly aware of this. He knows he's pushing the envelope having Pitlick and Brodzinski on this roster. And he isn't blind. Every shift Bonino takes at 3C is as excruciating to watch as it is a lesson in futility. That the Rangers are currently in first place is a testament to Peter Laviolette's coaching ability and Panarin having a career year. Absent that, this team would likely be struggling to stay in the playoff hunt.

So now that we know what the problem is, how will Drury address it? With Kakko not expected back until February and Chytil returning to his native Czechia in what the team is calling a "reset," they need help now. Some of that help is on its way, via Hartford. The Rangers have recalled Brennan Othmann to replace Pitlick, who is listed as week-to-week with a lower body injury. Where he plays will be up to Laviolette. I'm sure Drury would've preferred to have Othmann spend an entire season in the AHL, however circumstances forced his hand.

But the real need is at center. If Chytil is indeed lost for the season, Drury will have to look outside the organization for a replacement. But who, that's the question.

Going into the season, the Rangers had $675k in cap space. With Chytil and Kakko both on LTIR, they have around $7.1 million available to go shopping and still be cap compliant. I doubt Drury will use the whole wad, because if he does, Kakko can't return until the playoffs. So let's say for the sake of argument the number is $5 million. That should be more than enough.

Below is a list of possible candidates along with their cap hits and stat lines.

Elias Lindholm (Calgary) $4.85m / 37GP / 8G / 16A / 55.1% FO. Lindholm is a legit star who scored 42 goals in the 2021-22 season. With the Flames looking to sell, he won't come cheap. Figure multiple draft picks and a couple of prospects.

Boone Jenner (Columbus) $3.75m / 29GP / 13G / 5A / 55.9% FO. Jenner is out with broken jaw for the next six weeks, so Drury might be reluctant to pursue him. However, if the long-term prognosis on Chytil is as bleak as some have hinted, Jenner would be an ideal replacement. He's signed thru the 2025-26 season with a very manageable cap hit. Like Lindholm, he'll cost a pretty penny.

Kevin Hayes (St. Louis) $7.142m (50% retained by Philadelphia) 36GP / 9G / 10A / 56.4% FO. Would Drury bring Hayes back to Broadway? At $3.571m, he fits nicely. Plus, if Chytil does return by the playoffs, Hayes can switch to RW where Alain Vigneault often used him when he coached here.

Sean Monahan (Montreal) $1.985m / 9G / 13A / 57.5% FO. The thing that makes Monahan so attractive is his cap hit. In the event Chytil is cleared to return before the playoffs, Drury could move out Pitlick's contract and still fit him in under the cap, provided he can get the Canadiens to retain some salary. Don't be surprised if this is the move that gets made.

With Monahan, the Rangers forward lines would look like this, assuming Chytil is gone for the season:

Kreider - Zibanejad - Wheeler
Panarin - Trocheck - Lafreniere
Cuylle - Monahan - Othmann / Kakko
Goodrow - Bonino - Vesey

You can live with Wheeler on the first line. Going into the Carolina game, he had 9 points in his last 9 games; the second line speaks for itself; Monahan gives the Rangers a legitimate third line; and, best of all, Bonino returns to the fourth line where he belongs.

As far as a Patrick Kane reunion is concerned, it's highly unlikely that Drury would go down that road again. One look at how well the Detroit Red Wings have played since his arrival should be all you need to know. Despite his hall of fame credentials, he's not worth the disruption he brings to a locker room. Plus, he's a winger, not a center.

Seriously, Rangers fans, it's time to bring down the curtain on Showtime.



Friday, December 15, 2023

Will the Real New York Rangers Please Stand Up



It is an axiom that no team, regardless of how good they are, ever goes through an entire regular season without experiencing a slump. After their best start in 30 years - a start that saw them jump out to the top of the NHL standings - it was only a matter of time before the New York Rangers experienced one.

To be clear, the issue is not that the Blueshirts have lost three of their last four games - and four of their last eight - the issue is how they've lost those games. Every single one has been by a margin of four goals: 5-1 to the Buffalo Sabres; 6-2 to the Ottawa Senators; 4-0 to the Washington Capitals; and 7-3 to the Toronto Maple Leafs. The common denominator in all four was how poorly they played in every facet of the game. The Washington loss was a virtual no show, and in the Toronto loss, both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner were untouched as they skated into the Rangers zone. Not even Patrick Roy could've stopped those goals. Not since last year's playoff loss against the New Jersey Devils have the Rangers been this uninspiring.

The drop-off in play is disconcerting, to say the least. After they beat the Boston Bruins at the Garden on November 25, the Rangers were first in the league in goals against, second in save percentage and third in goal differential. Over their last eight games, they have dropped to 11th in goals against, 11th in save percentage and 9th in goal differential. 

Ironically, while the Rangers have been in the midst of this slump, they've also played two of their better games of the season: a 3-2 win over the up and coming Detroit Red Wings and a 4-1 thumping of the L.A. Kings; the latter considered by many to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

So how is this possible? How can a team play so well one game, then fall apart the next? Until the Leafs game, a pattern was emerging. Against teams with winning records, the Rangers were 11-2-0, with a goals against average of 2.38 and a save percentage of .922. Against teams with non-winning records, the Rangers were 8-4-1, with a goals against average of 3.08 and a save percentage of .896. The obvious conclusion was that the Rangers were playing down to the level of their opponent.

The loss against Toronto seems to have thrown that conclusion out the window. The Leafs may not be the Bruins or the Kings, but they are hardly the San Jose Sharks. In fact, as of this writing, they are only four points out of first place in the Atlantic division. If you can't get up for a team like that, especially after a convincing win against the Kings, then you have a problem.

Some have laid the blame at Igor Shesterkin's skates. While it's true that the former Vezina trophy winner has let in several questionable goals this season, the fact is that prior to his last start against the Leafs, his save percentage against winning teams was .917. By comparison, Jonathan Quick's save percentage against those same teams was .932. But here's the rub: if you subtract his shutout against the Pittsburgh Penguins, that save percentage drops down to .906. So, clearly, the problem isn't Igor.

Then just what is the problem? I think it boils down to attrition. Since the injury to Filip Chytil and the subsequent one to Kaapo Kakko, the Rangers have been primarily a two-line team. Nick Bonino, who was brought in for his checking abilities, is simply not a third-line center; not at this stage of his career. When Chytil went down with what is believed to have been the fourth or fifth concussion of his young career, he had six points - all assists - in 10 games. So far, Bonino has one goal and three assists for four points in 27 games. You don't need to be a statistician to know that four points in 27 games isn't going to cut it, not when other teams are getting production from their third lines. And while Kakko wasn't exactly lighting it up on the score sheet, his defense away from the puck made him an asset to his team.

The fact is not having these two forwards in the lineup has put a strain on the ability of the Rangers to generate a sustained forecheck. Peter Laviolette has been forced to rotate Blake Wheeler and Johnny Brodzinski on the first line with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. Neither are top six forwards. Sooner or later, this was going to catch up with them. That it took this long is a credit to the resiliency of the players and the coaching bonafides of Laviolette's staff. Make no mistake about it: this team wins not because of its talent, but because of its adherence to a system that brings structure and discipline; two words typically not associated with the Blueshirts. Were it not for Artemi Panarin and a power play that is currently ranked second in the league, the Rangers would likely be up a creek without a paddle. Clearly, something needs to be done. But what?

It's important to remember that even with the issues they've had of late, the Rangers are still in first place in the Metropolitan division and second overall in the Eastern conference. They are number one in face off percentage and are one of the top teams in the league in blocked shots. The fast start they got off to has given GM Chris Drury the leeway he needs to not make a panic move.

But everything hinges on how long Chytil remains out? If he is able to return by January, Drury may elect to ride out the storm. But if the long-term prognosis for Chytil is bleak, he will have to trade for a center. Because the Rangers were forced to place Chytil and Kakko on LTIR, they are not accruing cap space during this time. That means that any salary Drury adds will have to be offset once Chytil and Kakko are activated, unless they shut down one or both for the duration of the regular season.

If Drury wants to hedge his bet, a good option would be Sean Monahan of the Montreal Canadiens. The pending UFA has 9 goals, 17 points and a 56.9 win percentage on face offs. And he only makes $1.985 million, meaning even if Chytil and Kakko both return, the Rangers can accommodate his cap hit. Best of all, it would allow Laviolette to move Chytil to right wing where he might prosper more; Kakko would then return to the first line and Bonino to the forth line where both belong. 

So, the Rangers have their first slump of the season. The sky isn't falling; not yet, anyway. But there are storm clouds on the horizon.


Friday, November 10, 2023

Just How Good Are These Rangers?



A little over a week ago, I wrote that November would test the Rangers mettle. Nine days and four games in, they appear to be passing that test with flying colors. The Blueshirts are 3-0-1 this month. 

Going 3-0-1 in and of itself is not particularly newsworthy. After all, the Rangers have gone 3-0-1 before. What's newsworthy is that they've done it without Adam Fox or Filip Chytil, and in the last three games, without Igor Shesterkin; and last night they were without Jonathan Quick.

If the mark of a good team is how well it performs when one or more of its stars are out of the lineup, the Rangers are the living embodiment of that age old axiom "next man up." Lose your Norris trophy winning defenseman? No problem. Lose your second-line center? No problem. Lose your Vezina trophy winning goalie? No problem. Lose your backup goalie? Still no problem.

The Rangers are like that Energizer bunny commercial. They keep on going and going.

Just consider the following statistics:

At 10-2-1, the Rangers sit in first place in the Metro division, tied for third in the NHL with 21 points. They have allowed the third fewest goals with 28; they are second in the league in power play percentage at 35.7; tied for seventh in penalty kill percentage at 86.4; tied for second in face off percentage at 55.1; and tied for fourth in save percentage at .924.

And they've done all this without quite mastering head coach Peter Laviolette's system and with Mika Zibanejad, Blake Wheeler and Kaapo Kakko combining for a measly four goals. Just imagine how much better this team is going to be once they have that system down and everyone is healthy and up to speed.

So the question begs just how good are these Rangers? 

The Buffalo win was a good omen; the Seattle win dominant; the OT wins in Vancouver and Winnipeg showed resilience; but the wins over Carolina and Detroit convinced me. This is a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, and the man principally responsible for that is Laviolette. 

There is a toughness to this team that has been sorely lacking for years. While they haven't been perfect, they have shown that they are willing to do whatever it takes to win, even if it means playing a style of hockey that they have heretofore resisted. Dumping the puck in, driving to the net, clogging the neutral zone, using their sticks to block passes, using their bodies to bock shots. These are attributes typically not associated with past Rangers teams. And yet, Laviolette has somehow gotten this bunch to buy in like no coach since, dare I say it, Mike Keenan.

On this team, it doesn't matter who scores. The only thing that matters is whether the team wins. Nick Bonino doesn't have a point this season and nobody gives a shit. He's winning 58 percent of his face offs, he's killing penalties and he's shutting down the opposition's top line. Compare and contrast him to the fourth-line center Chris Drury brought in last year. Ryan Carpenter couldn't tie Bonino's skates.

Last season, Artemi Panarin was a bitter disappointment in the playoffs against the Devils. This season, he's been a man possessed. He leads the team in scoring and is third in the NHL with 22 points. Alexis Lafreniere, the number one pick in the 2020 draft who many had written off as a bust at the ripe old age of 22, has 5 goals and 9 points playing on the same line with Panarin.

And it doesn't stop there. Under Laviolette, Vincent Trocheck is reminding everyone what it was that Drury saw in him when he signed him as a UFA last year. He's playing like he did when he was with the Hurricanes: with speed and tenacity. A solid two-way center who wins face offs and is good in his own end, he has 3 goals and 6 points in his last 3 games since taking over for Chytil as the 2C.

Then there's Will Cuylle, the 21 year old who fancies himself the next Tom Wilson. After an impressive training camp in which he willed himself onto the roster, the winger has 3 goals and 5 points playing on the third line. Not bad for a rookie. Another young player who garnered a lot of criticism last season - and deservedly so - was K'Andre Miller. This season, he's the team leader in plus / minus with a +7.

But the most pleasant surprise, by far, has been the play of Erik Gustafsson. The 31 year old defenseman, who played for Laviolette in Washington, has filled in admirably while Fox is out. He has 3 goals and 6 assists, two of them coming on the power play. Drury signed him for the staggering price of $825,000. As of this writing, Gustafsson ranks as the steal of the year. If this team goes on to win the Cup, Drury deserves as much credit as Laviolette.

Look, I want to caution everyone, it's early. It's not even Thanksgiving yet. We still don't know when Fox will return. Hopefully by December. And the Rangers haven't faced enough top tier competition to make any definitive determination. As fans of this team know all too well, dreams have a way of turning into nightmares pretty quickly.

But for now, let's enjoy the show. After all, it was eleven months ago that Jacob Trouba threw his helmet in frustration at how poorly his team was playing.

That seems like a galaxy away, doesn't it?


Thursday, October 26, 2023

Rangers Off To A Good Start - So Far


Over the first six games of Alain Vigneault's tenure as head coach of the New York Rangers, they went 2-4-0. Not quite the start they were looking for. The team would struggle most of the first half of the 2013-14 season; on December 20, their record stood at 16-18-2. To say the natives were restless would be putting it mildly.

Fortunately, the Blushsirts turned it around, going 29-13-7 the rest of the way, finishing second in the Metropolitan division, and advancing all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in 20 years. Despite losing to the L.A. Kings in five, the consensus was that the season was an unqualified success.

There are several parallels between that team and the current one: a mix of seasoned veterans with a sprinkle of young players, a Vezina trophy goalie capable of stealing games, and an established head coach with a new system.

In his first six games behind the Rangers bench, Peter Laviolette has managed to kill two birds with one stone. Not only has his team gotten off to a fairly impressive 4-2-0 start, in three of those wins they appear to have successfully implemented his system. Granted, the Buffalo Sabres, Arizona Coyotes and Seattle Kraken are hardly the Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils, but you have to learn to walk before you can run.

During much of the 1990s and early 2000s, the Devils employed the 1-3-1 neutral zone trap so effectively, they won three Cups. Now that Laviolette has brought that neutral zone trap to New York, the hope is that history will repeat itself on the other side of the Hudson. After watching the Rangers cede their blue line for years, it's refreshing to see them finally stand their ground and make opponents work to gain the offensive zone. 

There are two statistics that stand out. The first has been a sore spot for years. In their first five games, the Rangers have won 55.7 percent of their face offs. Last year, they won 49.1 percent of them. You have to go all the way back to that '94 Cup year to find a team that dominated at the face off circle. In a league that values puck possession, winning face offs is a must.

But it's the other statistic that's turning heads. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Rangers are currently ranked 8th in Corsi for shot percentage at 5v5. Last season, they were ranked 17th. In Gerard Gallant's first season as head coach - the year they went to the conference finals - they were ranked 25th. Combined with a power play that is currently ranked 4th in CF%, the Rangers have the potential to be one of the elite teams in the league this year.

Another encouraging sign is the way Laviolette is utilizing the "kids." Both Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko are starting to flourish in the top six, and Filip Chytil is becoming a solid two-way center with Artemi Panarin as his left wing. Chytil has five assists in his last two games, while Lafreniere scored a power play goal against the Calgary Flames the other night, the fourth of his career. He's tied with Panarin for second most goals on the team with three. Not bad for a supposed "bust."

Look, it's still early. Anything can happen. But with the Carolina Hurricanes struggling and the Devils defense and goaltending leaking like a sieve, a first place finish in the Metro isn't out of the realm of possibility for the Rangers.

Tell me you saw that coming in September. I sure as hell didn't.


Saturday, October 14, 2023

Rangers Make Good First Impression


In the end, a win is a win, right? The Rangers opened up the 2023-24 season with a solid 5-1 victory over the Sabres in Buffalo Thursday night.

Winning the first game of the season isn't exactly newsworthy for the Blueshirts. Last year, they opened the season with an equally impressive 3-1 win against the Tampa Bay Lightning at the Garden, and we all know how that turned out.

But there was something different about this win. That wasn't your typical Rangers performance out there. You know the kind: jump out to an early lead and then hold off the coming onslaught from the opposition. With the exception of a few minutes in the third period when the Rangers were killing off a couple of penalties they unwisely took, New York was in total control of the game. Against a Buffalo team that finished third in the NHL in scoring last season, they gave up a total of 25 shots, only two of which were high danger chances.

For the first time, Ranges fans got to see the deployment of the 1-3-1 defense, which for all intents and purposes is a neutral zone trap; the same neutral zone trap teams like the Devils utilized so effectively in the 1990s. It proved to be the difference Thursday night. The Sabres top line of Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch was held off the scoring sheet, managed just six shots on goal and was a minus two for the evening. When was the last time the Rangers allowed only one gaol and Igor Shesterkin wasn't one of the stars of the game?

But it wasn't just the stifling defense that stuck out. The Rangers were relentless in their forecheck pretty much the entire game. It led directly to two goals, and Alexis Lafreniere figured prominently in both. After an Artemi Panarin shot was kicked out by Devon Levi, Panarin grabbed his own rebound and slid it across the goal mouth to a breaking Lafteniere who stuffed it in the net for a 1-0 lead early in the first period. Then in the second period, Lafreniere forced a turnover in the Buffalo zone that Panarin pounced on and blasted a shot passed Levi for a 3-0 lead. The only blemish on the night came off a rebound shot by JJ Peterka after Jacob Trouba blocked the initial shot. In all, the Rangers blocked 23 shot attempts.

Chris Kreider - two goals and an assist - might've been the number one star of the game, but it was Lafreniere who got the game hat from this teammates. The first overall pick of the 2020 draft is being counted on heavily this season, and after a less than stellar preseason that left many wondering whether the winger was up to the challenge, his performance Thursday night did not go unnoticed, especially his coach. He even went 4-1 on face-offs. If Lafreniere, along with fellow "kids" Kaapo Kakko and Filip Chytil, take the next step, this team will be a force to be reckoned with.

But for now the Rangers will take the two points. Next up on the schedule is the Columbus Blue Jackets, another team that missed the playoffs last season. Then they fly home to play the Arizona Coyotes at the Garden. Time will tell if they've fully grasped Peter Laviolette's system, or whether the Sabres were just a lucky one off.


Monday, October 9, 2023

Why I'm Bullish on the Rangers


Let's face it. The way last season ended left a bad taste in Rangers fans mouths. After jumping out to a 2-0 series lead against the Devils, the Blueshirts dropped four of the next five games. Three of those losses, including the series clincher, weren't even competitive. Once more, the franchise that has won exactly one Stanley Cup since World War II went home early.

Chris Drury did not take it well. The President and G.M. fired his head coach Gerard Gallant and replaced him with Peter Laviolette, whose resume includes three trips to the finals and one Cup. With the limited cap space he had, Drury then went out and signed three forwards to shore up the bottom six, a defenseman to play on the third pairing and a backup to Igor Shesterkin. No Vladimir Tarasenko, no Patrick Kane, no big splash.

It's easy to understand how some could look at the Rangers offseason and be skeptical about their prospects going into the 2023-24 campaign. As someone who's followed this team since 1971, I've learned the hard way not to get my hopes up. When Jon Matlack asked Jerry Grote what he could expect pitching for the Mets, Grote replied, "If you don't allow a run, I guarantee you at least a tie." Some fan bases are conditioned to be happy with what they can get.

But after giving the matter considerable thought, I think it would be a huge mistake to sleep on this team. To be honest, I'm rather bullish on their chances. And not because I'm an incurable optimist. If anything, I'm more jaded now than I was 30-40 years ago. I just have a hunch that this team, which has broken more hearts than Taylor Swift at a Jets game, might catch lightning in a bottle.

There are three reasons for my optimism:

The core: After getting off to a sluggish 11-10-5 start last season, the Rangers went 36-12-8 the rest of the way. That's a .642 winning percentage. Only the Boston Bruins - at .793 - were better. They accomplished this mostly without the assistance of Tarasenko or Kane, who despite their impressive bonafides, wound up disrupting the chemistry on this team. That no doubt was a contributing factor in their early exit.

With Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba, Ryan Lindgren and Igor Shesterkin, the Rangers have one of the more impressive cores in the NHL. If the kids take the next step and fulfill their promise, this will be a very tough team to play against this season.

Blake Wheeler, Nick Bonino, Tyler Pitlick and Erik Gustafsson are the sort of complimentary players Tarasnko and Kane never were. While other G.M.s overpaid for their free agents, Drury didn't panic and got good value. Given what he had to work with, he had himself a helluva good summer.

The coach: Four times over the last 30 years, the Rangers have brought in a more experienced coach to turn around a roster that had underperformed the previous year: Mike Keenan in 1993; John Tortorella in 2009; Alain Vigneault in 2013; and Gallant in 2021. With the exception of Tortorella, every hire paid immediate dividends. The '94 Rangers won their first Stanley Cup since 1940; the '14 Rangers went to the Cup finals; and the '22 Rangers went to the Eastern Conference finals.

While it's no slam dunk that Laviolette will replicate his predecessors success, it's worth noting that in his first full season behind the bench in Carolina, the Hurricanes won the Cup; four years later in his first year as head coach in Philadelphia, he took the Flyers to the finals. Everywhere he goes, his teams win. If that isn't a good omen, I don't know what is.

Laviolette's two greatest challengers will be 1) to convince a team that is used to playing an east-west style of hockey to play a more north-south style; and 2) to get Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko to play like the top six forwards scouts predicted they'd be when they were drafted number one and two respectively. David Quinn and Gallant each failed at both. The hope is that Laviolette will be the proverbial third time charm.

The Eastern Conference: The hockey gods have a strange sense of humor. Last season, the Atlantic division was stacked with the Boston Bruins winning the President's Trophy going away and the Tampa Bay Lightning vying for their fourth consecutive trip to the finals. In the Metro division, both the Devils and Hurricanes had outstanding seasons.

This season, the Metro will still be tough, but in the Atlantic, both the Bruins and Lightning have had roster turnovers that will weaken them considerably. Tampa will be without goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy until mid December. Nobody knows what to make of the Florida Panthers. Are they the team that came within three wins of capturing the Cup? Or are they the team that got swept in the second round in '22. And let's face it, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the Cleveland Browns of Canada. Any team that gets out of the Metro should be the odds-on favorite to advance to the finals.

I'm not saying the Rangers will have an easy path; far from it. But they have had success against the Canes. And if they can find a way to contain the Devils speed, there might be another banner hanging in Madison Square Garden.

Prognosis: Like that 2013-14 team, which went 16-18-2 in their first 36 games, I fully expect the Rangers to struggle out of the gate. They were 1 for 18 on the power play during the preseason. Not a good sign. Going all the way back to game three of the Devils series last season, they're 2 for their last 39. That has got to change. For this team to be a contender, they must have a productive power play.

Assuming they hit their stride by early December, the Rangers should once again finish third in the Metro; the Kids will blossom under Laviolette; and Shesterkin will lead them to their first Stanley Cup in 30 years.



Wednesday, May 3, 2023

Now What?



To say this Rangers season was a colossal failure would be putting it mildly. Going into game seven against the New Jersey Devils Monday night, the Rangers knew they had to do two things: 1. Not let the Devils run them ragged around the hockey rink; and 2. Score on the power play. They did neither.

For all intents and purposes, this game was over in the first period. The Blueshirts went 0 for 3 on the power play and were thoroughly outplayed from the opening puck drop. It was only through the sheer brilliance of Igor Shesterkin - who with a GAA of 1.96 and a SV% of .931 deserved a better outcome - that the score wasn't 3-0 New Jersey going into the second.

This series in many ways was a microcosm of the Rangers season. When they played against teams that gave them the room to create, they lit them up like a Christmas tree. But when they played against teams that knew how to check and took away their passing lanes, they struggled to generate offense. Just look at the scores in this series; they tell the whole tale. In the games they won (one, two and six) they outscored New Jersey by a combined 15-4. In the games they lost (three, four, five and seven) New Jersey outscored them by a combined 13-2. Worse, their power play, which had played such an integral role in their success during the regular season, went 5-14 (35%) in the three wins, but a woeful 0-14 in the four losses.

So what went wrong? How did the most talented Rangers team in over a generation get booted in the first round? 

For starters, it's time to admit the obvious. Despite the success of last year's postseason, this was and is a flawed team. Talented, yes, but flawed nonetheless. Their inability or unwillingness to play a north-south stye of hockey that is demanded of all Stanley Cup contenders proved to be their Waterloo. Think back to the Eastern Conference finals against the Tampa Bay Lightning. After he lost game two, Jon Cooper put the Cirelli line out against the Zibanejad line and the result was that the Rangers managed just one even strength goal the rest of the series.

Another problem that has consistently plagued this team is its lack of grit. In short, they still struggle to win battles in the corners and along the boards. Again, when they play against porous teams, they're fine; when they have to work to retrieve the puck, that's another story. All the more reason to question the decision to trade for Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane. Yes, both are incredibly talented players; the latter is arguably the greatest American ever to lace up a pair of hockey skates. But talent was never a problem for the Rangers; intestinal fortitude was.

Just take a look at the greatest Rangers team of all time. That 1994 team, by any reasonably objective standard, was not the most talented team to ever take the ice. Indeed, the '92 team that was ousted in the second round by the Pittsburgh Penguins was much more talented. But what the '94 team lacked in talent, it more than made up for in guts. They weren't just seasoned veterans; they were warriors who were used to the rigors of a long and grueling postseason. That team had the heart of a lion, and through sheer force of will, they brought a Cup home to a city that hadn't seen one since 1940.

Where are the Messiers, the Graves, the Matteaus, the Tikkanens, the MacTavishes, the Beukabooms on this Rangers team? Don't bother looking because they're not there. In fact, so long as we're being honest here, this team more closely resembles the '92 team - sans Messier and Graves - than the '94 team. Like I said, talented but flawed.

So now what? Where does GM Chris Drury go from here?

Clearly, Drury has some tough decisions ahead of him. Does he fire Gerard Gallant? If so, who does he bring in to replace him? What roster moves does he make? Does he tweak the lineup or are more drastic changes needed? Let's go through them one by one.

The head coach:

Two years ago, before Gallant was hired, I thought it would be a good idea for Drury to at least interview Rod Brind'Amour and Rick Tocchet. Brind'Amour's contract with the Carolina Hurricanes was expiring and he was available, while Tocchet had managed to get an Arizona Coyotes team that was barely north of an AHL roster into the qualifying round of the 2020 playoffs. Both men - especially Brind'Amour - are widely respected coaches who excel at Xs and Os; something Gallant is not particularly adept at. But Drury opted to go with "the bird in the hand," as I wrote back then. 

A players' coach, Gallant was the polar opposite of his predecessor, David Quinn. Not only did he make the playoffs last year, but he had the most wins by a first-year Rangers coach since Mike Keenan in '94. But the struggles that plagued them that year became exacerbated this year. An early-season slump led many to speculate that Gallant's days were numbered. After the Jacob Trouba helmet throwing incident against Chicago, the Rangers turned their season around, thus saving Gallant's job. But now with this humiliating defeat at the hands of the Devils, it's no better than 50/50 whether he survives. And that's a shame, considering he was one win shy of being the first coach in franchise history to reach 100 wins in his first two seasons behind the bench.

So who would replace Gallant? Joel Quenneville's name has come up. The former Chicago Blackhawks and Florida Panthers head coach certainly has the credentials. He guided the Blackhawks to three Cups over a six-year period. It's his checkered past that is problematic. At best, he ignored the sexual assault scandal that rocked the Blackhawks organization and shocked the hockey community; at worst, he helped cover it up. Either way, it would not be a good look for the Rangers to hire him. Knowing James Dolan, I wouldn't put it past him to do just that. Assuming Gary Bettman reinstates Quenneville, he would be the odds-on favorite if a change is made.

Tarasenko and Kane:

There's been some speculation about keeping one of these two UFAs on a team-friendly deal. Hopefully, that's all it is: speculation. Frankly, neither contributed much since their arrival; in fact, their presence likely hurt the team chemistry, particularly the power play. The gymnastics Drury had to subject this team to just to fit Kane in under the cap became something of a running joke throughout the league. It was one of the few times during his tenure that he forced a square peg into a round hole, which leads me to believe that maybe Dolan had something to do with it.

What Drury needs to do is let both players go and use the cap savings to re-sign his own RFAs over the summer. There's a reason why they're called rentals and not purchases. The smart move is to give more ice time to Alexis Lafeniere and Kaapo Kakko, and bring up Will Cuylle and Brennan Othmann. If the Devils proved anything in this series it's that youth and inexperience aren't the liabilities some think they are.

Panarin:

While the Bread Man is unquestionably the most talented player on this team, and one of the league's elite playmakers, he is also the Mike Gartner of this generation. A great regular season player who wilts under the spotlight of the playoffs. He had two measly assists in the Devils series and frequently turned the puck over in the offensive and neutral zones.

His $11.6 million salary is the largest on the team, and even if Panarin would be open to waiving his no-move clause, Drury would have a hard time finding a team with sufficient space to accommodate his cap hit. And those teams that do have the cap space, would probably be teams Panarin would not agree to go to. 

But let's be optimistic and say there's a team willing to take on Panarin's contract - with a little salary retention by Drury - that Panarin would agree to go to. The Rangers could use that money to add some size to their lineup. Maybe Drury can finally get the checking center he's been after since he became President and GM. Both Sam Lafferty and Nick Bjugstad were supposedly on his short list at the trade deadline before he got distracted by Kane. As good as Barclay Goodrow is, he's not a natural center; his talents are better suited as a winger.

The Kid line:

It is time to shit or get off the pot for this trio. Assuming Drury re-signs Lafreniere - be it a bridge deal or something similar to what Filip Chytil got - the Rangers must find out what they have with these players. Chytil finally had a breakout year in his fifth season, while both Kakko and Lafreniere showed definite signs of improvement. Regardless of who is behind the bench next season, it is imperative that all three get more ice time, either as a unit or on different lines.

For those who feel that Drury should trade Lafreniere. I would caution against doing that. Having lived through both the John Ferguson and Phil Esposito eras, the last thing this organization needs is another Rick Middleton or Mike Ridley flourishing on another team. Even if Othmann does get promoted, there's no guarantee he would be become the player in the NHL that he is in the juniors. 

Use the trade deadline the way it was intended next time.

Teams make trades for a variety of reasons, but typically playoff-bound teams use the trade deadline to add complimentary pieces to a roster that is otherwise set. That is precisely what Drury did last season when he acquired Frank Vatrano, Andrew Copp, Tyler Motte and Justin Braun. All four complimented what was already there. Adding Tarasenko and Kane had the opposite affect. Instead of complimentary pieces, Tarasenko and Kane were viewed as mercenaries brought in specifically to deliver the Cup. Just imagine the message that sent in the locker room. You're not good enough so we imported these two future Hall of Famers to save your ass. And people wonder why this team looked lost the last month of the season. 

Look at what Toronto and Edmonton did at the deadline. The Leafs acquired Ryan O'Reilly, Noel Acciari and Sam Lafferty, while the Oilers picked up Nick Bjugstad and Mattias Ekholm. All have been solid additions to their respective teams. That's how it's done. Next time around, Drury should stick with what works. Compliment your talent; not supplant it.

Yes, the 2022-23 season didn't end the way it was supposed to. But given the plethora of NMC contracts on the team and the lack of cap space that Drury will have to work with next season, there isn't much he can do to dramatically change this roster short of blowing it up. That would mean another rebuild, and I doubt Dolan would stand for that.

If he does decide to replace the coach, he should go with someone who doesn't have enough baggage to start his own airline; someone who works well with younger players as well as older players; someone who can finally convince players like Panarin and Zibanaejad that playing north-south hockey is in their best interest.

Wonder what Mike Keenan is doing these days?



Thursday, March 30, 2023

Rangers Have Their Fil


You wanna know how serious Chris Drury is about building a core that will endure? Since he became President and GM of the Rangers in the summer of 2021, he's managed to lock up his top three centers without paying a single one more than $8.5 million AAV. 

Read it and weep. Mika Zibanaejad: $8.5m x 8; Vincent Trocheck: $5.625m x 7; and now Filip Chytil: $4.4375m x 4. All three key contributors on a team that is considered by many to be the deepest in the NHL heading into the playoffs. In a league where top heavy contracts are the rule, the Rangers have only one player - Artemi Panarin - who's making more than $10 million per season. And that is a tribute to Drury who has managed to navigate the treacherous waters of the flat cap era without being devoured.

It's no secret the Rangers were facing a daunting task trying to retain all three of their RFAs this summer. Last July, yours truly wrote that they needed to "lock up Alexis Lafreniere ASAP." The concern was that once he hit the free agent market, a rival GM - Jeff Gorton, for instance - would sign him to an offer sheet that Drury couldn't match. Goodbye number one draft pick, hello humiliation.

Well, scratch one RFA from the list. With Chytil having a breakout season, the question wasn't whether Drury would re-sign him - it was obvious he couldn't afford to let him walk - but whether he could get him to accept a team-friendly deal that would afford him the opportunity of also keeping both Lafreniere and K'Andre Miller. Mission accomplished. $4.4375m is approximately a million under market value for a player with Chytil's stats and ceiling. Making the deal even sweeter for the Rangers, Drury was able to buy out two years of arbitration rights on Chytil, as well as two years of free agency.

Contrary to popular belief, centers who can score 20 or more goals do not grow on trees. With Zibanejad, Trocheck and Chytil, the Rangers have three of them. Wanna know how rare that is? The Rangers are the only team in the NHL that can say that. I'd say that's pretty rare, wouldn't you? 

Last summer, there were those who thought that when Ryan Strome bolted for the Anaheim Ducks, the Rangers should've just given the 2C job to Chytil and used the cap savings to lock up all three RFAs to long-term deals, like the Tampa Bay Lightning did with Anthony Cirelli and Mikhail Sergachev. Drury wasn't comfortable giving Chytil that much responsibility so he signed Trocheck to fill Strome's spot.

As it turns out, Drury made the right call. After a slow start, Trocheck has become a solid 2C, and Chytil, centering the "kid" line, has come into his own. As a result, the Rangers are now set down the middle for the foreseeable future. If he can bridge Lafreniere and Miller, the Rangers, regardless of what happens in the postseason, should be in good shape cap wise going into next season.


Monday, March 27, 2023

Boyz II Men


If the key to winning a championship is depth up and down the lineup, then the New York Rangers are blessed to have what many consider to be the deepest roster in the NHL. Because on a night when Mika Zibanaejad, Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox were held without a point, the Kid Line of Filip Chytil, Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko took charge. Each scored a goal and added an assist Saturday to propel the Blueshirts to a 4-3 win over the Putty Tats in South Florida.

It's time to state the obvious: these are no longer "kids." They're much more than that. Throughout much of the season, whenever head coach Gerard Gallant has put them together, this threesome has been, by far, the most consistent and cohesive unit on the team. That doesn't mean they've been the most dominant on the score sheet - that distinction belongs to the above mentioned fab four. But on numerous nights, when the core didn't have quite enough in the tank, the "kids" picked up the slack.

There was the game against the Maple Leafs at Toronto where Chytil scored both goals for the Rangers in a 3-2 OT loss; the game against the Calgary Flames at the Garden where Lafreniere scored the OT winner; another thriller at the Garden against the New Jersey Devils where Chytil helped set up the game-tying goal by Kakko and then scored the winner in OT. And in what has to be considered the best come from behind win of the season, Kakko and Lafreniere each scored in the shootout against the Oilers at Edmonton.

It is now abundantly clear that last year's playoffs were no anomaly. The talent is there; as is the work ethic. Almost without exception, every time they take the ice, something good happens. Even when they don't score, they keep the opposing team hemmed in their own zone. Yes, it's taken a while for the rose to finally bloom - Chytil is in his fifth full season, Kakko his fourth and Lafreniere his third - but success, regardless of what the Twitterverse may think, isn't measured on an assembly line basis. 

Face it, not everyone is Sydney Crosby or Connor McDavid. Since their arrival in New York, Kakko and Lafreniere have been under a constant microscope. Kakko is often compared to Jack Hughes, the number one pick in the 2019 draft; while Lafreniere, the number one pick in the 2020 draft, gets compared to Tim Stutzle, the player taken two picks later. Neither is a fair comparison, in my opinion.

For starters, in 2019 no one doubted that Hughes was the better player; the only concern was whether, at 175 pounds, he was durable enough to play in the NHL. And while a low-grade MCL injury ended his season last year, for the most part Hughes has been a regular in the Devils lineup. Regarding the 2020 draft, Lafreniere was the consensus number one pick. It wasn't even close. To say otherwise is the rankest form of revisionist history.

But secondly, and perhaps most importantly, both Hughes and Stutzle have from day one played in the top six for their respective teams, with both spending considerable time on the power play. By comparison, Kakko and Lafreniere have been mostly relegated to the third line, and until recently, gotten virtually no time on the power play. Did you know that going into this season, Lafreniere had more even-strength goals (31) than Stutzle (22)? Just imagine how many more goals Lafreniere could've scored if he were on the power play. Then factor in the built-in advantage top six players traditionally have on most teams and it's reasonable to assume both Kakko and Lafreniere would have better stats than they currently do.

As for Chytil, he had the curse of being the third center on a team that already had two pretty good ones. Contrary to popular opinion, Jeff Gorton didn't really tear down the Rangers. What he did more closely resembled a retool than a formal rebuild. He kept some of his key players like Zibanaejad, Kreider, Ryan Strome and Henrik Lundqvist, and then he signed Panarin. This meant that Chytil, along with Kakko and Lafreniere, had little chance of getting substantial ice time. Consequently, the growth of all three players was stunted almost from the very first shift they took as Rangers.

All that is water over the dam. Chytil, Kakko and Lafreniere have become key cogs on this team. As deep as the Rangers are, any hope they have of capturing their first Stanley Cup since 1994 will depend in no small part upon the contributions these three former kids, now men, make.


Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Drury's Trade Deadline Dilemma


I'll be honest with you. The prospect of seeing Timo Meier on a line with Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin is enticing. Just think of the possibilities. For the last two seasons, Gerard Gallant has been trying to assemble the perfect line. Last year, Chris Drury brought in Frank Vatrano and Andrew Copp at the trade deadline in an attempt to do just that. It almost worked. Emphasis on almost. Know what? Meier, Zibanaejad and Panarin would be the perfect line.

Did you see the way Meier played last night? He almost single-handedly beat the Lightning, first by scoring the Sharks second goal of the game and then netting the overtime winner. In just 52 games this season, he already has 30 goals, the third time in his career he has cracked the 30 goal mark. And he's only 26. Just imagine what he'd do in a Rangers uniform over the next eight seasons.

Unfortunately, imagination is where this discussion will have to end. That's because as a pending RFA, Meier - who's in the last year of a four-year, $6 million AAV contract - is due for a considerable bump in pay from whichever team is the lucky recipient of his services. Think $8.5 million x 8 years. Meaning he's not a rental; he's a long-term lease.

Why is that a problem? Because the Rangers have three of their own RFAs to deal wth over the summer: Alexis Lafreniere, K'Andre Miller and Filip Chytil. The latter is finally starting to deliver on his promise. He scored two goals against the Flames Monday night and would've had a hat trick had he not passed up a golden scoring chance in the closing seconds of regulation; and the former scored the OT winner. The total price tag for all three will be considerably more than what Meier will command all by himself.

Bottom line: there's simply no way Drury can acquire Meier and keep him; not unless he decides to let Lafreniere and either Miller or Chytil walk - very unlikely - or he moves a large contract. And regarding the latter, the only contracts large enough to offset Meier's price tag all have NMCs attached to them. If you seriously think for a moment that Jacob Trouba - $8 million AAV - is going to just waive what his agent worked so hard to get him, you obviously have taken one too may pucks to the head. Long story, short, Meier isn't coming to Broadway, at least not in this lifetime.

But what about the option of just trading for him and letting him walk? The assets Drury would have to part with, both in draft picks and prospects, would make Meier the most expensive three-month rental in franchise history. And God forbid the Rangers don't win the Cup, it would have profound repercussions for years to come. Given this G.M.'s track record, it seems highly improbable he would be that reckless.

So where does that leave Drury? Ostensibly right where he was a year ago at this time. It should be noted that going into the '22 trade deadline, the Rangers were supposedly linked to several high-profile players like J.T. Miller, Mark Scheiflele and Claude Giroux? In the end, Drury passed on all of them and opted to go with role players like Copp, Vatrano, Tyler Motte and Justin Braun. All four were integral in the Rangers advancing to the Eastern Conference finals. Sometimes it's the trades you don't make that end up being the most consequential.

That's why I think Drury isn't going to make a big splash at the trade deadline; not unless the price is just right. And with several more teams looking to improve their playoff fortunes, that scenario might be next to impossible to achieve. Translation, no Patrick Kane or Vladimir Tarasenko.

Indeed, apart from Vitali Kravtsov - who seems to have worn out his welcome with Gallant - there isn't a single prospect in the organization Drury is willing to part with. Will Cuylle and Brennan Othmann are all but certain to make the team next season; and now that they're starting to click, the Kid line isn't going anywhere. Who knows, a year or two from now that line might be among the best in the league. 

Jimmy Vesey, who was a PTO coming into camp, has looked pretty good playing on the Zibanejad line. He would've had himself a pair of goals Monday night were it not for two incredible saves by Jacob Markstrom. Gallant loves 200 foot players, and Vesey, along with Barclay Goodrow, who has found a home playing with Vincent Trocheck and Chris Kreider, are the ideal Swiss army knives. You can slot them anywhere and they contribute. Believe it or not, this year's team is better and deeper than last year's team.

So maybe Drury decides he likes the makeup of the roster and elects to shore up his fourth line. Perhaps Nick Bjugstad from Arizona could be had for a third round pick. With 11 goals, he'd be perfect centering Cuylle and Sammy Blais. And with Bjugstad making only $900k this season, the Rangers could re-sign him on the cheap, just like they did with Vesey and Ben Harper. The nice thing about Drury is that, like a good chess player, he's always thinking two moves ahead.

Look, in a world with no salary cap, Timo Meier would be a New York Ranger right now. So, by the way, would at least half a dozen other players. But if memory serves, before the NHL instituted a hard salary cap, the Rangers would spend money like a drunken sailor, and for their effort typically wound up with a nasty hangover.


Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Horvat Deal Doesn't Impact Drury or the Rangers


To be honest, I was surprised that Lou Lamoriello pulled the trigger on the Bo Horvat deal. Frankly, I didn't think he had it in him. From everything we know about the man, he's strictly a role player type GM. Just take a gander at the Devils teams he put together in the '90s. He has a history of avoiding big names with equally big contracts. And make no mistake about it: it will take a lot of money to re-sign Horvat. Think at least $9.5 million x 8 years. If Mathew Barzal's AAV is $9.15 million x 8 years, you can bet the ranch the starting price for Horvat will be north of that. And that's assuming Lamoriello locks him up before the summer, which if he doesn't makes this "rental" a bust.

But while Horvat instantly becomes the Isles best player, his presence alone doesn't automatically catapult them into the postseason. That's because apart from Anders Lee there isn't a single winger on this roster that puts the fear of God into an opposing team. So unless Lou has another trade up his sleeve, I would hold off reserving those playoff tickets, if I were you. That might explain why Lamoriello protected the first round pick he sent to Vancouver. In the event they don't make into the tournament, he doesn't want to blow his chance at drafting Connor Bedard. Lou may be stubborn but he's not stupid.

So how does the Horvat deal impact Chris Drury's potential moves at the trade deadline? In a word, it doesn't. That's because Horvat is a center and the Rangers are set at that position. We can debate how effective Vincent Trocheck's offense has been since his arrival on Broadway last summer, but he is an improvement over Ryan Strome. If you can't see that, then maybe you should stop reading this blog. And after four years of promissory notes, Filip Chytil appears to finally be delivering on his potential. The third-line center has been one of the better forwards on this team the last few weeks, especially since Gerard Gallant reunited the Kid line. Drury's only problem will be re-signing him during the offseason.

As I wrote in my last piece, the Rangers number one need will be adding a scoring winger. And if they can find one cheap enough, maybe a shutdown center, as well. The problem for Drury won't be what his fellow GMs do, but available cap space. Even with Sammy Blais' contract off the books - and I assume Drury is actively working to make that a reality - the Rangers will only have about $7.5 million in deadline cap space to work with. That doesn't come come close to what they had last season when Drury was able to add four valuable pieces to help the Rangers on their playoff run.

Add to that the fact that, unlike last season when we knew who the top eight teams were in the Eastern conference, this season, there are eleven teams vying for eight playoff spots. In the Western conference, that number is ten. Meaning Drury will have a lot more chefs in the kitchen to contend with, all of them looking to make a soufflé from scratch. For an organization that values its youth and doesn't want to repeat the mistakes of the past, Drury will have to thread the needle here.

So, yes, the Horvat deal helps the Islanders, but it doesn't impact the Rangers in the slightest. Drury's job isn't any harder now than it was a day or two ago. This is still a playoff team that could use some filling out. How much will depend on what the seller is asking for and what the buyer is willing to pay.



Friday, October 21, 2022

Gary Bettman's Potential Early Christmas Present



NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman's announcement, following a board of governors meeting in New York, that the salary cap might go up to $86.5 million instead of the expected $83.5 million came as welcomed news to every general manager and player agent in the sport.

"We believe that there is a good probability that the escrow will be paid off this season. It may not be, but it’s going to be close we think, which means the flat cap will be replaced by a bigger increase. Revenue is pretty vibrant. We probably did $5.4 billion in [hockey-related revenues] this past season, which is actually about a half a billion more than we projected a year ago when we were starting things up. Things are good."

For those who haven't been paying attention - and from what I've seen on Twitter, that appears to be a rather large contingent of fans - the league has been operating under a flat cap since the 2019-20 season was paused due to the Covid-19 pandemic. At the time, the salary cap was $81.5 million, and to make sure the cap wasn't reduced, the NHLPA agreed to have part of their players salaries placed into an escrow account. The understanding being that once that balance was paid off, the cap would resume its pre-pandemic trajectory. Initially, that was supposed to be at the conclusion of the 2023-24 season. That timeline has now been accelerated by one season.

It cannot be overstated just how significant this development is. Notwithstanding the financial losses the league suffered, many teams are literally staring at cap hell, both this season and next. A look at some of the moves GMs were forced to make over the past two summers underscores just how difficult it's been to build and retain a core of players. Many teams were unable to field a full roster of 23 players this season because they simply don't have the cap space. The Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche couldn't re-sign their number two center Nazem Kadri over the summer because they would've been over the cap. He subsequently signed with the Calgary Flames. Imagine if the Avs had an extra $3 million in the kitty.

Closer to home, Chris Drury is facing something of a quandary himself. At the conclusion of this season, Alexis Lafreniere, K'Andre Miller and Filip Chytil are all RFAs. At present, the Rangers, after waiving Dryden Hunt - or as Ranger Twitter has referred to him, the second coming of Rick Middleton - have just over $900k in cap space. That translates to about $4 million in deadline cap space for Drury to shop around for reinforcements at the trade deadline.

Assuming there are no additional buyouts this offseason, the Rangers will get $3.4 million in dead cap space off the books. Every cent of that money, and then some, will go to re-signing either Lafreniere or Miller, leaving Drury with some tough choices about which players to trade or let go. Even with the expected additional $1 million in salary cap and the expiration of Ryan Reaves' $1.75 million contract, there just isn't enough room at the inn to keep the band together. Imagine going through the pains of a rebuild and not being able to see it all the way through.

Now if all goes according to plan, Drury might be able to have his cake and eat it too. With a salary cap at $86.5 million, the Rangers would be able to keep Lafreniere, Miller and Chytil, provided they can get at least one of them - preferably Chytil - into a bridge deal. Below is what a potential 2023-24 roster could look like:


2023-24 Salary Cap $86,500,000.00

Forwards
Panarin $11,642,857.00
Zibanejad $8,500,000.00
Kreider $6,500,000.00
Trocheck $5,625,000.00
Lafreniere $5,000,000.00
Chytil $3,750,000.00
Goodrow $3,641,667.00
Kakko $2,100,000.00
Blais $1,525,000.00
Othmann $894,167.00
Korczak $859,167.00
Cuylle $828,333.00
Rydahl $800,000.00


Total $51,666,191.00


Defensemen
Fox $9,500,000.00
Trouba $8,000,000.00
Miller $4,000,000.00
Lindgren $3,000,000.00
Jones $1,200,000.00
Schneider$925,000.00

Total $26,625,000.00


Goalies
Gerand $828,333.00
Shesterkin $5,666,667.00

Total $6,495,000.00


Total Cap Hit $84,786,191.00
CAP SPACE $1,713,809.00



As you'll note, I have Blais returning next year for the same salary he's making now and both Othmann and Cuylle making the team. Also, I have Gerand as the backup to Igor. I assume Drury will include Vitali Kravtsov in a deadline deal for either Patrick Kane or someone with a similar skill set. The bottom line is that under the higher cap, the Rangers would be able to retain not only their core but their young studs as well for the foreseeable future.

Of course, none of this is etched in stone. Knowing the NHL's penchant for disappointing their fans, it's entirely possible that the escrow might not be fully paid off by the end of the season. In that event, Bettman has made it clear that the cap will only go up $1 million to $83.5. And if that's the case, GM's like Drury will have to, once more, make lemonade out of lemons.