Showing posts with label LTIR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LTIR. Show all posts

Thursday, March 14, 2024

Chris Drury's LTIR Nightmare



It's only been three games but already Jack Roslovic and Alex Wennberg have made an impression on their new teammates. Roslovic, playing right wing on the Zibanejad line, almost scored a goal in his first game and helped set up goals in his next two: one against the New Jersey Devils; the other against the Carolina Hurricanes. Wennberg with an assist in his first game, has solidified a third line that has badly needed a center to replace the injured Filip Chytil.

The analytics for both lines are considerably better than they were a week ago. Indeed, over the last three games the Rangers top three lines at 5v5 are above 50% GF percentage. That means they are on the ice for more goals for than against at 5v5. It is no coincidence that Chris Drury's trade deadline acquisitions have had a lot to do with this recent uptick. For the first time since the start of the season, the Rangers roster is finally set.

But while the playoffs are still a month away, Drury has a dilemma on his hands that he will have to deal with over the summer. That's because he has a huge decision to make regarding Chytil's status. The center went down with what is believed to be his third concussion of his career in a game against the Hurricanes on November 2 and has been out of the lineup ever since. A month ago he attempted a comeback and while practicing at Madison Square Garden collapsed and had to be helped off the ice. It was at that time that the Rangers decided to shut him down and keep him on LTIR for good.

And while his $4.43 million cap hit was put to good use, along with that of Blake Wheeler's $800k cap hit, no one knows for certain what will happen with Chytil next season. As I see it, there are three possible outcomes here.

1. Chytil, upon being told he will likely never fully recover, decides to retire. In that event, he remains on LTIR, allowing the Rangers to use his cap hit towards other players.

2. Chytil, upon being told he will likely never fully recover, decides not to retire, but instead chooses to collect his full salary, which he is entitled to under the CBA. In that event, he remains on LTIR, allowing the Rangers to use his cap hit towards other players.

Both of these outcomes would give the Rangers plenty of cap space to re-sign Wennberg if they want, and with the salary cap going up by $4million to $87.5 million next season, that should be enough cap space to re-sign Kaapo Kakko, Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider. Brendon Othmann could potentially replace Roslovic on the top line. Problem solved.

But then there's a third outcome that could prove nightmarish for Drury.

3. Chytil is told he will likely never fully recover but insists on trying a comeback anyway. He somehow gets medical clearance to resume skating, and after a few weeks is medically cleared to rejoin the team. The problem for Drury is that the NHL takes a dim view of teams that hide players on LTIR for the purpose of getting cap relief, unless of course you're the Vegas Golden Knights or the Tampa Bay Lightning.

If Drury re-signs Wennberg to a four year deal with, say, a $4.5m AAV, he would have to clear out enough salary to offset Chytil's cap hit before activating him. Knowing how the league is run, Drury might as well hang a sign around his neck that reads, "Please screw me." Because that's exactly what any competing GM will do. Given how well regarded the Rangers are around the league (sarcasm), the phone calls should go something like this: "Hi, Chris, how you doin'? So Chytil is ready to come back and you need someone to take him off your hands for you? Gee, I'm sorry but I'm not sure I could use him. Of course for a couple of first round picks, I might have some use for him."

Now I'm not saying that every GM will try to do that to Drury; some may actually be sympathetic to his plight and try to help him out. But this much is certain: the longer he waits to move Chytil's contract, the harder it's going to be to do so.

But why move him? After all, if Chytil is medically cleared to play, why wouldn't he want him on the roster, especially after the season he had last year? The reason should be obvious enough. The hit Chytil took from Jesper Fast in the second period of that Hurricanes game was not particularly hard. It's the sort of hit hockey players take all the time. In fact, when it happened, it looked as though Fast got the worst of it. Knowing how the game is played, it is only a matter of time before Chytil gets hit like that again, and when that happens, he will be right back on LTIR.

Drury would be foolish to tie his team's fortunes to the health of a player whose one concussion away from forced retirement. Even if Drury believes that the odds of Chytil making a successful comeback are slim to none, his best recourse is still to move him over the summer. Believe it or not, there is precedent for just such a move. Three years ago, Lightning GM Julian BriseBois was up against the cap, so he traded Tyler Johnson and a second round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for the contract of Brent Seabrook. Johnson's cap hit was $5m and Seabrook's was $6.875m. Seabrook was on LTIR due to an injury that eventually forced him into retirement.

Do the math. $5million plus $6.875million equals $11.875million. If you want to know why BriseBois is considered a genius when it comes to navigating the salary cap, this is why. There isn't a loophole the man doesn't know about or can't exploit. Vegas GM Kelly McCrimmon obviously took notes as evidenced by his "maneuvers" at this year's trade deadline.

But wouldn't it make more sense, given the Seabrook example, for Drury to keep Chytil? Under normal circumstances it might. But there's another complication. While Chytil is on LTIR, the Rangers do not accrue cap space. Going into the season, the Rangers had $675k in cap space. With the normal accrual process, Drury would've had roughly $3m by the trade deadline to go shopping. The rash of injuries put the kibosh on that. In effect, all Drury had to work with were the contracts of Chytil and Wheeler which came out to $5.2 million. And before you say the obvious: Isn't $5.2m larger than $3m? Keep in mind, Drury, I'm sure, was counting on a healthy Chytil and Wheeler, along with that $3m when the season started. All the $5.2 million did was allow him to find replacements for the wounded.

The bottom line is this: teams can borrow against players on LTIR, but they can't double dip. It's either or. That's why Drury must trade Chytil's contract. Keeping him only hamstrings the organization and prevents him from doing his job, which is to make this team deeper and stronger.

Look, what happened to Filip Chytil is truly tragic. A promising, young career maybe over at 24. But it would be infinitely more tragic for the Rangers to give in to sentiment. At the end of the day, this is still a business, and Chris Drury, as the President and GM of this franchise, has an obligation, first and foremost, to that franchise.



Tuesday, March 14, 2023

Drury's LTIR Gamble Is Coming Back To Bite Him



As the Rangers begin a five-game home stand tonight against the Washington Capitals - a home stand in which they play the Pittsburgh Penguins back to back - they are a healthy team, with one notable exception. Ryan Lindgren will miss his eighth-straight game with a shoulder injury.

It's time to admit the obvious: Chris Drury made a mistake by not placing Lindgren on LTIR and using his $3 million cap hit - less $100k - to acquire another depth player like Sam Lafferty or Nick Bjugstad. Yes, such a move would've meant that Lindgren's regular season was ostensibly over and that the earliest he could've been activated was game one of the playoffs. Given that at the time of the injury the Rangers still had 23 games left on their schedule, that would've meant going the rest of the regular season without their most trusted and reliable defenseman. From what we've seen over just the last seven games, it's obvious how much he means to this team. Adam Fox hasn't been the same without his partner on the left side, and regardless of how you feel about Niko Mikkola, it's clear he has no business being in the top four. At best he's a slight improvement over, dare I say, Patrik Nemeth.

It is inconceivable that Drury didn't know how badly Lindgren was hurt. We all saw the hit he took in Washington. This is a player who rarely misses a shift, let alone a game, and there he was being helped to the locker room, his left shoulder slumped, clearly in pain. Terms like "upper-body injury" and "day to day" may cut it for the beat writers, but for those in the front office, the prognosis had to be far more grim. Why else would he be unable to play during what is undoubtedly the most critical part of the remaining schedule?

And if in fact Lindgren is unable to play, it's only fair to ask why the hell isn't he on LTIR? The NHL created the LTIR specifically to give teams the cap flexibility they needed to avoid being shorthanded. Julien BriseBois of the Tampa Bay Lightning has used it so many times, the league should rename it the BriseBois IR. Why on Earth Drury didn't avail himself of this precious resource is a legitimate question that demands an answer. 

Simply put, there was no excuse for Gerard Gallant not to have a full compliment of 18 skaters at his disposal against the L.A. Kings, Philadelphia Flyers, Ottawa Senators and Boston Bruins. None. The Rangers are the only playoff team in the Eastern Conference to be carrying only 21 players on their active roster while every other team is carrying 23. That difference has severely limited Gallant's ability to rest some of his players down the stretch. And given the gauntlet the Rangers are likely to face in the postseason, that is a burden that could easily have been avoided.

Look, I have defended Chris Drury since he was named President and GM of the Rangers almost two years ago. On the whole he has done good job; his moves at last year's trade deadline got this team to within six wins of its first Stanley Cup since 1994. Managing to land both Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane without having to give up the better of his two first round picks is quite a feather in his cap, if I do say so myself.

But this decision of his to not place Lindgren on LTIR is not only bizarre; it now threatens the success of the entire season. Barring a complete collapse, the Rangers will make the playoffs. The only question is where they will finish: in third or as a wildcard. It's worth noting that if they go just 9-7 in their remaining 16 games, the Penguins and Islanders would have to go 12-4 and 13-1 respectively to catch them. That isn't likely to happen.

The real threat begins on game 83, where the Rangers will go up against teams that are well rested and ready to go. Load management, for all the negative press it has garnered in the NBA, is a necessary evil in sports today. It gives coaches the flexibility they need to prepare their teams for the marathon that is the postseason. It was clear from last season that the Rangers, having been extended a full seven games in each of their first two playoff rounds, ran out of gas against the Lightning. 

Should they be fortunate enough to beat both the Devils and Hurricanes this postseason, that fate almost certainly awaits them against the Boston Bruins, a team that is on track to finish with more points than the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens. Appearing in two consecutive conference finals might be enough for most teams, but given the talent on this roster, it will be a bitter disappointment, not just for the fans but for a certain owner who, let's face it, has had an itchy trigger finger over his tumultuous tenure.

My point is this all could've been avoided had Drury simply done the right thing and immediately placed Lindgren on LTIR. Now his gamble is coming back to bite him and his team.


Tuesday, July 26, 2022

Here's How the NHL Can Fix Its LTIR Embarrassment


By now it's become something of a punch line within the ranks of NHL front office executives. Need more cap space? Simple, just put one of your players on long-term injured reserve. Problem solved.

It worked so well for the Tampa Bay Lightning that they tried it twice. At the start of the 2020-21 season, GM Julien BriseBois placed Nikita Kucherov and his $9.5 million cap hit on LTIR for the entire regular season, thus allowing the Lightning to be under the salary cap.  But once the postseason began, Kucherov made a remarkable recovery. I don't know what's in the water down in Tampa, but ole Kuch led his team in scoring with 32 points in 23 playoff games.

During the ensuing offseason, BriseBois decided he couldn't count on one of his players coming down with a strong case of injuritis so he traded Tyler Johnson and his $5 million cap hit to the Chicago Blackhawks for Brent Seabrook, who, by the way, hasn't played an NHL game since midway thru the 2019-20 season and whose career, for all intents and purposes, is likely over. Seabrook, in case you're wondering, carries a cap hit of $6.875 million, all of which goes on, you guessed it, LTIR.

Now you know why BriseBois is the best GM in the league, as far as I'm concerned. No other executive manipulates the system as brilliantly as he does, all with the tacit approval of the suits who work at 1185 Sixth Avenue, New York, NY. 

Well, almost no one. Kelly McCrimmon of the Vegas Golden Knights borrowed a page out of BriseBois's playbook over the summer when he traded Evgeni Dadonov and his $5 million cap hit to the Montreal Canadiens for Shea Weber. Like Seabrook, Weber hasn't played in at least a year, which means his entire $7.85 million cap hit goes on LTIR. When the Golden Knights traded for Jack Eichel last season, Eichel was on LTIR. In order to activate him, McCrimmon was forced to move Mark Stone to LTIR. Talk about musical chairs.

If this charade weren't so embarrassing, it would be comical. The NHL, in its infinite lunacy, has not only failed to close a loophole in its LTIR policy; it is giving a wink and a nod to teams that are ostensibly gaming the system in order to get a leg up on their rivals. As for the damage such ambivalence is causing to the league's reputation, well we are, after all, talking about the NHL: the only professional sport in North America that still tolerates fighting and allows its top stars to be mauled, all to appease a fanbase that looks upon the Broadstreet Bullies as the Golden Era of Hockey.

If the NHL really wanted to fix its LTIR embarrassment, these are the steps I would immediately consider implementing.

1. The LTIR would be eliminated altogether. In its place, each team would be allowed to carry a reserve fund of $10 million to be used to replace players who sustain season-ending injuries. If, for example, the Rangers were to lose the services of Artemi Panarin for the season, Chris Drury would have upwards of $10 million to spend on a replacement without having to worry about going over the salary cap.

Teams would also be permitted to use part of that reserve fund to acquire players they feel would improve their team. However, for every dollar spent on one of those players, two dollars would be subtracted from the fund. For instance, if the Rangers wanted to acquire Patrick Kane from the Chicago Blackhawks at 50 percent retention, they would use up the entire $10 million reserve fund plus be on the hook for the remaining $250,000. They also would be shit out of luck if one of their players went down for the season.

See how this works? The league gives each team the same amount of money to work with and says to them, use this money as you see fit. Those who know how to spend their money responsibly will flourish; those who don't will suffer. But the shenanigans will finally be over.

Since I don't for a minute believe Gary Bettman and the Board of Governors will ever agree to this, let's proceed to the following steps.

2. Any player that goes on LTIR during the season must be activated at least five games PRIOR to end of the regular season in order to be eligible for the postseason. If a team does not have sufficient cap space to accommodate the return of said player than it must create that space by moving another player or players off its active roster. If the salary cap is $83.5 million during the regular season, it's $83.5 million during the playoffs. In other words, the Kucherov maneuver is now kaput.

3. A player who is on LTIR cannot be traded either during or after the season. In order to be traded, that player must be eligible to play the moment the trade is consummated. Trading contracts simply to get cap relief will no longer be allowed.

4. To avoid any ambiguity as to what constitutes eligibility, the player in question must have played in at least five games during the regular season and be examined by a league physician prior to the trade. He also cannot be placed on LTIR immediately upon his acquisition. In other words, no more "Gee, he was healthy when he got here and now, look at him, he can't play" horse shit. Either you're eligible to play or you're not.

5. Teams that violate this new league policy will be subject to any or all of the following: 

  • The full amount of the cap hit will be subtracted from the team's salary cap the following season.
  • The team will lose the services of said player for the entirety of the playoffs.
  • The team will forfeit a draft pick or picks to be determined by the Commissioner's office.

Wow, that's pretty strict. You bet your ass it's strict. And it will send a message loud and clear to every general manager throughout the league. If you can't manage your cap, get a new job.

I submit that the vast majority of teams will have no problem complying. Teams like Tampa Bay and particularly Vegas, who are still over the cap and have only 16 players on the active roster, are going to have to rethink how they conduct their business.

The bottom line is that this has become an eyesore that the NHL can no longer afford to ignore. The powers that be have got to put an end to it.