Panthers Provide a Blueprint for the NHL

Sam Bennett won the Conn Smythe trophy for most valuable player in the NHL playoffs. It was well earned. Bennett led the Florida Panthers with 15 goals and 22 points in 23 postseason games. He was by far the most consistent player for his team, and whether he stays in South Florida or goes elsewhere this summer, he will be richly and justly rewarded with his next contract.

But the one trophy that has yet to be awarded is the Jim Gregory award for top executive of the year. If anyone other than Bill Zito wins it, there oughta be an investigation. The job he has done transforming the Panthers from a middling team into a dynasty should be a blueprint for every general manager in the league, including a certain individual currently employed at 4 Penn Plaza.

Since he was hired in 2020, Zito has signed or traded for Sam Bennett (C) and Matthew Tkachuk (LW) from the Calgary Flames, Sam Reinhart (RW) from the Buffalo Sabres, Carter Verhaeghe (LW) from the Tampa Bay Lightning, Evan Rodrigues (LW) from the Colorado Avalanche, Niko Mikkola (D) from the New York Rangers, Gustav Forsling (D) and Seth Jones (D) from the Chicago Blackhawks, Eetu Luostarinen (LW) from the Carolina Hurricanes, Brad Marchand (RW) and Jesper Boqvist (C) from the Boston Bruins, Tomas Nosek (C) from the New Jersey Devils, and Nate Schmidt (D) and Paul Maurice (coach) from the Winnipeg Jets. In short, more than half of the Stanley Cup winning team came from elsewhere.

In a sport that defines success by how many home-grown players a team has, the Panthers are a text-book example of how to shop wisely. No organization does it better. Just look at their top nine:

Verhaeghe - Alesander Barkov - Reinhart

Rodrigues - Bennett - Tkachuk 

Luostarinen - Anton Lundell - Marchand 

Only Barkov and Lundell were drafted by the Panthers. That's it. Everyone else came from outside the organization.

Zito is not the first GM to build a championship team mostly through trades. In the 1990s, Neil Smith broke a Rangers 54 year Cup drought by importing Adam Graves, Jeff Beukaboom, Mark Messier, Esa Tikkanen, Kevin Lowe, Steve Larmer, Stephan Matteau, Brian Noonan, Craig MacTavish, Glenn Anderson, Doug Lidster and Glenn Healy. What is remarkable is that he's managed to do it in the cap era where general managers routinely pull their hair out trying to field a competitive roster and still stay cap compliant. 

His secret sauce has been the way he's managed the cap. Like Julien BriseBois of the Tampa Bay Lightning before him, Zito has not signed one player to a contract with an AAV higher than $10 million. What this means is that he has the cap space needed to fill out his roster with solid bottom six players while some teams struggle to assemble a top six.

For example, the Panthers cap hit for Barkov, Tkachuk, Reinhart, Verhaeghe and Bobrovsky comes to $45.1 million. The Edmonton Oilers cap hit for just Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid is $26.5 million. There's no doubt that both these players are among the best in the NHL, but you have to ask yourself whether any hockey team can win a Stanley Cup with so much salary tied up in two players. And keep in mind, McDavid will be a UFA after the 2025-26 season. His next contract could well have an AAV of $17 million or higher. Even with the salary cap expected to go up to $104m in 2026 and $113m in 2027, the Oilers might be better off borrowing a page from the Panthers playbook and moving on.

Indeed, five of the last six Stanley Cup winners - the Lightning twice, the Vegas Golden Knights once and the Panthers twice - do not have a single player with an AAV over $10 million. Meanwhile, the team with the most front-loaded roster in the league - the Toronto Maple Leafs - have made it to the second round twice in the last eight seasons. That cannot be a coincidence.

What it tells us is that having the best player in a series is no guarantee of success. Indeed, it's almost a curse. If I were the GM of a team with Cup aspirations, I would emulate what Zito and BriseBois have done with their respective teams. Both have stumbled on to something; something that most fans don't understand. You don't need world-class talent to win in today's NHL. What you need is depth and solid goaltending. The Oilers had neither in these finals, and it showed.

Call me "delusional," or any name you want, but I don't think the hockey fans in South Florida care in the slightest that number 97 doesn't play for their team. They have two Cups, and the last time I checked, that's two more than the Oilers have won in this century.

Come to think of it, it's one more than the Rangers have won since World War II.

Ouch!

2024-25 NHL Predictions

If there's one thing every hockey fan can agree on, it's that their favorite team will have a great year. While listening to the NHL Network the other day, an Ottawa Senators fan called in to say that he thought they were going to have a breakout season and wind up with 100 points. I credit the host with not laughing his ass off the air.

That being said, there are basically three types of teams in every professional sports league: those that are at or near the top, those that are on the rise, and those that are on the way down. As always, yours truly will provide his "expert" opinion as to which is which. I apologize for being a bit late here; my wife and I were in Italy for our 30th anniversary.

Normally, I do a separate preview for the Rangers. But this year, I'll combine both into one piece. And like I've done in the past three previews, I'll pick the top three teams in each division, then pick the two wild cards per conference, and then finish with the "close but no cigar" contingent.

Remember, it's all done in fun.

Eastern Conference:

Metropolitan Division: 

New York Rangers: The 2023-24 Presidents' Trophy winner dumped Barclay Goodrow's salary, but other than that this remains ostensibly the same roster as last season, which despite an impatient and frustrated fanbase, is a pretty good thing. Let's face it, the Florida Panthers were the worst opponent they could've gone up against. Any other opponent and we're talking at least a Cup final appearance. But when you look at them objectively - two conference finals in three years - they remain one of the premier teams in the NHL. Alexis Lafreniere is on the verge of stardom, and with Igor Shesterkin in goal, they are always a threat.

New Jersey Devils: GM Tom Fitzgerald finally got himself a goaltender that can stop the puck and he addressed the backline as well, which should help immensely. But the biggest challenge new head coach Sheldon Keefe will have is to get this talented, but still very young, group of players to commit to playing in all three zones. To be honest, Keefe didn't exactly do a bang-up job in Toronto; in five years, the Maple Leafs won just one playoff series. But he is an improvement over Lindy Ruff.

Carolina Hurricanes: The Canes had a rough offseason, losing Jake Guentzel, Brett Pesce and Teuvo Teravainen, and they still don't have an elite goalie. But detractors would be foolish to sleep on any team coached by Rod Brind'Amour. They may not be as good as they were the last three seasons but they will still be a tough team to play against. Dismiss them at your own peril.

Atlantic Division:

Florida Panthers: Losing Brandon Montour to free agency will hurt, but this remains one of the best and deepest cores in the league. They check like no one's business and with Sergei Bobrovsky in net, they should be favorites to repeat as Cup champs. 

Toronto Maple Leafs: Talent was never the problem in Toronto; it was will. Craig Berube should be able to address the latter. He coached a St. Louis Blues team with slightly above average talent to a Stanley Cup in 2019. But can he get this all-star team to buy in? That's the question. 

Boston Bruins: Getting Jeremy Swayman locked up for 8 years means that whatever else happens in Beantown, the Bruins will at least have great goaltending. They're not nearly as deep as the other teams in their division, but when it comes to work ethic, few teams can rival them.

Wild Cards:

Tampa Bay Lightning: The Bolts had an interesting summer. First they traded one of their best defensemen to Utah; then they let Steven Stamkos go to Nashville so that they could sign Jake Guentzel as his replacement. You figure it out. Jon Cooper will have his work cut out for him this season. But so long as they have Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy, they'll never be out of it.

Detroit Red Wings: They barely missed the playoffs last season. This time around, they'll sneak in. In year six of his tenure, GM Steve Yzerman has assembled a good roster that is close to being a contender.

Close, but no cigar:

Washington Capitals: The Caps are counting on Pierre-Luc Dubois to rediscover whatever it was that made him one of the hottest commodities in the NHL. I'm guessing they'll regret trading for him. I wonder how Charlie Lindgren would look in a Rangers uniform.

New York Islanders: Did you hear? Apparently, Anthony Duclair is Mike Bossy incarnate. As a lifetime member of the "I Hate the Islanders" club, I'm really gonna enjoy watching the final stages of the Lou Lamoriello demolition derby.

Pittsburgh Penguins: If ever there was a franchise that hasn't gotten the memo, it's this one. It's going to be a very long season in western Pennsylvania. 

Western Conference:

Central Divison:

Nashville Predators: Barry Trotz won the offseason, big time, signing Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei. As a result, the Preds will be one of the best teams in the NHL. And to think, before Lou Lamoriello fired him, Trotz was the last coach to take the Isles to the conference finals.

Dallas Stars: The Stars will miss Joe Pavelski, but there's plenty of fire power on this talent-laden team to take up the slack. Jake Oettinger is one of the best goaltenders in the league and head coach Peter DeBoer will have his team near the top of the pack again. 

Colorado Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen are three of the best players in the league, but this is a team that believes it can win on talent alone. The last two seasons that formula hasn't been good enough to get them past the second round. One wonders whether they still have the hunger that won them the Cup in 2022.

Pacific Division:

Vegas Golden Knights: Basically, they replaced Jonathan Marchessault with Tomas Hertl. Talent wise, the Knights do not impress on paper. But on the ice, their secret sauce is an aggressive forecheck and a balanced attack. Their defense is big but mobile. They struggled last season which led to them being a wild card team; I doubt they'll make that same mistake again this season.

Edmonton Oilers: Head coach Kris Knoblauch did the impossible last season. He got a very talented group of players unaccustomed to hard work to roll up its sleeves and break a sweat. The result was the first trip by an Oilers team to the Cup finals since 2006, and had it not been for the Panthers, they would've won their first Stanley Cup since 1990. The only question remaining is whether Knoblauch's system has taken root in the locker room or whether last year was a one off.

Vancouver Canucks: For most of last season, Vancouver flirted with the Presidents' Trophy. And if Thatcher Demko hadn't gotten injured in the playoffs they might've gone all the way. Fully healthy, this is as solid a team as there is in the NHL. Led by J.T. Miller and Quinn Hughes, they are well coached by Rick Tocchet.

Wild Cards:

Los Angeles Kings: They were fortunate to find someone to take Pierre-Luc Dubois off their hands - call it addition by subtraction. But while they'll make the playoffs, they don't have enough talent to climb into the first tier in their division. 

Winnipeg Jets: In retrospect, it should've come as no surprise how quickly the Jets came apart at the hands of the Avalanche. The fact is, they were paper tigers. They should sneak in this season as a wild card but they don't belong among the elite in the league.

Close but no cigar:

Minnesota Wild: The good news for GM Bill Guerin is that starting in the 2025-26 season, the buyouts for Zach Parise and Ryan Suter will mostly come off the books; the bad news is that won't help him assemble a playoff roster this season.

Utah Hockey Club: This ain't your Arizona Coyotes team anymore. Under new ownership and management they were very active during the offseason. Snatching Mikhail Sergachev from the Lightning was the coup of the decade. Still, while they will be a lot more entertaining, they still a ways to go before they become a playoff team.

Playoffs:

Eastern Conference Finals: Rangers over Maple Leafs 4-3

Western Conference Finals: Golden Knights over Predators: 4-2

Stanley Cup Finals: Rangers over Golden Knights 4-2

Year End Awards:

Presidents' Trophy: Florida Panthers

Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid, Oilers

Hart Trophy: Matthew Tkachuk, Panthers

Norris Trophy: Adam Fox, Rangers

Vezina Trophy: Juuso Saros, Predators

Jack Adams Award: Paul Maurice, Panthers 

Conn Smythe Trophy: Igor Shesterkin, Rangers

Is Chris Drury Done?

That Chris Drury was looking to shed salary going into the offseason should come as no surprise to anyone familiar with this team's cap situation. After re-signing Kaapo Kakko to a one-year extension worth $2.4 million, the New York Rangers had $10 million in available cap space, per Puckpedia, with 18 players - 12 forwards, 4 defensemen and 2 goalies - signed for the 2024-25 season. Assuming he re-signs Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider, both of whom are RFAs, that will increase the number of signed players to 20, two below last season's roster total.

Let's say Lindgren agrees to a 3-year extension at $4.5 million per, and Schneider agrees to a two-year bridge deal at $2.5 million per. That reduces the available cap space Drury has to work with to $3 million. For a President and GM who said at his last press conference that "everything was on the table," $3 million doesn't go as far as it used to. Remember last year's offseason when the cap-strapped Rangers were forced to shop at the bargain basement? No? Do the names Nick Bonino, Blake Wheeler, Erik Gustafson, and Tyler Pitlick ring a bell?

Well, this time around, Drury wasn't going to let that happen. So on Tuesday, he waived Barclay Goodrow and his $3.64 million contract. And the following day, the San Jose Sharks claimed him off waivers. To say Goodrow was displeased would be putting it mildly. Seems the 31 year-old forward had a 15-team no trade clause and apparently the Sharks were on it. Oh, well.

To be honest, I'm impressed Drury went the waiver route instead of a buyout. The latter would've allowed Goodrow to sign with any team he chose while netting the Blueshirts $247,222 in cap space this coming season. But it also would've shackled the organization with cap hits ranging from $1 million to $3.5 million over the following five years. Clearly, Drury didn't want to repeat the same mistake his predecessor Jeff Gorton made when he bought out the contracts of Dan Girardi and Henrik Lundqvist.

Now for the sixty-four thousand dollar question. Is Drury done, or is Goodrow the first of several high-priced contracts headed for the exit? That depends on how he feels about this core. Does it need a tweaking or a partial teardown? If I had to guess, I'd lean more towards the former. Remember, this is a team that played most of the season with only two legit centers and no 1RW, yet still won the Presidents' Trophy. And as I pointed out in my last piece, had they not had the misfortune of going up against the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Rangers would now be battling the Edmonton Oilers for the Stanley Cup. As disappointed as Drury was at how the season ended, I'm quite certain he knows that.

Having an extra $3.64 million in the kitty could mean the difference between signing a top-six forward or a bottom-six forward. Just imagine how good this team might be next season with a bonafide right wing on the first line and a healthy Filip Chytil centering the third. You can bet the ranch Drury's imagining it. That's why I don't think we're looking at wholesale changes here. Assuming Lindgren isn't unreasonable with his contract demands, I expect Drury will use the lion's share of his cap space to go shopping for an elite scorer to play on Mika Zibanejad's right side. While that won't be enough to land Jake Guentzel, it might be enough to get Jonathan Marchessault or Jake DeBrusk. And if those two prove too costly, there's always Patrick Kane as a fallback. The last time "Showtime" was on Broadway it bombed royally. But maybe playing a full season for a coach like Peter Laviolette who can incorporate his talents into this lineup will be just what the doctor ordered.

How does this roster look?

Forwards:

Kreider - Zibanaejad - Kane / Marchessault / DeBrusk

Panarin - Trocheck - Lafreniere 

Othmann - Chytil - Kakko

Cuylle - Brodzinski - Vesey

Rempe

Defensemen:

Lindgren - Fox

Miller - Schneider

Jones - Trouba

Mackey

Goalies:

Shesterkin - Quick

While some fans may be disappointed that Jacob Trouba will still be here next season, the fact is I don't think there's an appetite within the Rangers organization to move on from him. A buyout would mean a dead cap hit of $4 million for the next two years - a non-starter - and a trade, assuming Drury can find a willing partner that has the cap space and isn't on Trouba's no trade list, would be nothing more than a salary dump. Period. Besides, when fully healthy, number 8 brings certain things to the table that will be hard to replace. Drury already got rid of one leader in the locker room; I doubt he's willing to vanquish another.

Of course, I could be dead wrong. Maybe Drury has a couple more moves up his sleeve before free agency begins. I guess we'll know soon enough, won't we?

The More Things Change...

In the end, relentlessness won out over resiliency. The relentless Florida Panthers were simply too much for the resilient New York Rangers to handle. Goodbye 1994 parallels; hello futility.

Going into their series against the Panthers, the Rangers knew they needed to have three things go their way in order to have a shot at advancing to the finals: 1. They needed to play almost flawless hockey; 2. They needed to win the special teams battle; and 3. They needed to have Igor Shresterkin be the best player on the ice. As it turned out, one out of three wasn't nearly good enough.

While stats don't always tell you everything about a series, in this case they did. And the stats were not kind to the Rangers: Overall scoring chances: 191-140 Florida; High-danger scoring chances 55-38 Florida; Power play efficiency: Florida 5-19 (26.3%), New York 1-15 (6.7); Shots on goal: 202-151 Florida. About the only stat the Rangers managed to win was save percentage, where Shesterkin edged out his counterpart Sergei Bobrovsky .930 to .921. Indeed, it was only due to the sheer brilliance of the former Vezina-trophy winner that the games were as close as they were. He stole game three, but he couldn't steal the series.

Given the expectations this team had going into the postseason, this will be a very bitter pill to swallow. For the second time in three years, the Rangers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals only to fall short. There will be a lot of questions that need answers to, but before we get to that, let's first acknowledge the accomplishments, and there were several.

The Rangers won the Presidents' Trophy. They set a franchise record with 55 regular-season wins. They led the NHL with 34 come-from-behind victories. Apart from January, where they went 5-7-2, they were the lead dog pretty much the entire year. Their 154 regular-season wins over the last three seasons is fourth best in the league, while their 54 playoff wins since 2014 is tied with the Dallas Stars for third best. Alexis Lafreniere had a break out year under Peter Laviolette. And though they lost to the Panthers, they can boast that they are better than the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Boston Bruins, and, oh yes, the Carolina Hurricanes, whom they've now beaten two out of the last three years.

That's a list of accomplishments most teams would give their eye teeth to have. Whatever else you might think about how the season went, between the two of them, Jeff Gorton and Chris Drury assembled a team that is no worse than fourth best in the NHL. And if they hadn't had the misfortune of going up against the Panthers in the conference finals, they might very well be opening up this Saturday night at the Garden against the Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Finals.

But here's the thing: they did have the misfortune of going up against the Panthers: a team that, pound for pound, was the most complete in the NHL. And let's be honest. For all their elite talent, the Rangers Kryptonite has always been physically imposing teams that take away the middle of the ice. Against the Blueshirts, the Panthers put on a clinic.

So now we get to the number one question: what does Drury do this offseason? Clearly changes will have to be made. The Rangers have three players who are RFAs this summer: Kaapo Kakko, Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider. Does Drury re-sign all three? Or does he trade one or more of them? If it's the latter, the likely one to go is Kakko. For all the intangibles the former number two pick in the 2019 NHL Draft brings to the table, the fact is he just hasn't worked out. Even under Laviolette, Kakko remains a bottom six forward. In hindsight, it was a mistake for Drury not to package him at the trade deadline for a proven scorer.

Lindgren and Schneider made $3 million and $925,000 respectively this past season and both are due for a pay raise. Drury can probably bridge Schneider the way he did with K'Andre Miller and Alexis Lafreniere. $2m x 2 should just about do it. But Lindgren will be a little trickier. He's looking at a multi-year deal in the neighborhood of $4.5 million per. Does Drury want to invest that much in a defenseman who might be the second coming of Dan Girardi? If he can keep the term down to three years, the answer might be yes.

When it comes to the UFAs, it's fair to say that Jack Roslovic, Alex Wennberg, Blake Wheeler, and Erik Gustafsson have all played their last game as a Ranger. The former two were rentals and Drury is not known for re-signing rentals; the latter two were signed last summer to one year deals and have outlived their usefulness. With Brennan Othmann in Hartford, Zac Jones, Matt Rempe and Jonny Brodzinski on the bench, and a - hopefully - healthy Filip Chytil, the Rangers should have plenty of options to fill out their bottom six without going outside the organization.

But the real question for Drury concerns the core of this team. This is now the third year in a row that is has failed to deliver in the clutch. Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider were held to two points a piece against the Panthers. Artemi Panarin had a goal and three assists, while Adam Fox had four assists. As for Jacob Trouba, he was on the ice for more than half the Panthers goals. The cap hit for all five of these players comes out to just over $44 million, or roughly 50 percent of next year's salary cap. Only the Maple Leafs (61.6%) have more salary tied up in their top five players.

We now know that Fox re-injured his knee on that collision with Nick Jensen in game four of the Capitals series. That would explain why he was, apart from a couple of games, a non-factor in the second and third rounds. We'll never know how the Rangers power play would've performed if Fox had been 100 percent. However, the fact that it went 2-25 over the team's last 10 playoff games cannot be a coincidence. 

But while Fox may get a mulligan, the other four have no excuse. Zibanejad, in particular, had a very disappointing season, especially at 5v5, where he was one of the worst centers in the league. Panarin had a career high 49 goals during the regular season, but only one over the Rangers last nine playoff games. After recording a hat trick in the series clincher against the Hurricanes, Kreider had just one goal - a shorthander - in six games against the Panthers. And Trouba's performance was so bad, Laviolette was forced to demote him to the third pairing with Gustafsson.

Does Drury really want to run it back next season with this core? A better question might be what choice does he have? Zibanejad and Panarin both have NMC (no-move clause) contracts, meaning they would have to approve any trade. Kreider and Trouba have 15 team NTC (no-trade clause) contracts. The problem with NTCs is that the teams that have the cap space to take on a large contract are typically the ones on the no-trade list, while the teams that aren't on the no-trade list rarely have the cap space to take on said contract.

In other words, barring a miracle, any speculation involving a trade for Brady Trachuk is just that: speculation. With the Rangers having just over $11 million in available cap space and only 18 players signed next season, Drury is going to have to do pretty much what he did last summer: shop at the bargain basement. store. And after the postseason he had, it's unlikely that Barclay Goodrow will be bought out. If anything, the Rangers need more players like him, not fewer. Jake DeBrusk could be just what the doctor ordered, if Drury if he can shed some salary.

Look, I realize things may seem bleak right now. But here's something that should cheer you up. Among the playoff teams in the Eastern Conference that were eliminated, the Rangers are actually best positioned to make a deep run next year. I'm not joking. The Bruins need, not one, but two centers; the Maple Leafs, despite all that top-tier talent, still can't get out of the first round; the Lightning are finally paying the price for manipulating the salary cap all those years; and the Hurricanes will likely lose several key pieces of their team to free agency, plus their goaltending is suspect. Even the Panthers will have to make some tough choices over the summer.

Bottom line: the glass is half full, Rangers fans. Enjoy the summer.

When It Rains, It Pours

This time there was no bank heist; this time Igor Shesterkin couldn't save his team.

The Eastern Conference Finals between the Florida Panthers and the New York Rangers are tied at two games a piece, but for all intents and purposes, this series couldn't be more lopsided. Save for five periods, the Panthers have been the better team. Their size and forechecking have been too much for the Blueshirts to overcome.

Tuesday night's loss was particularly frustrating. New York outshot Florida 12-11 in the opening frame and took a 1-0 lead into second period, courtesy of a Vincent Trocheck power play goal, their first of the series. It was, by far, the Rangers best period of hockey since game one against the Carolina Hurricanes, and only the third time in the postseason they held the opponent scoreless in the first period. 

And then, just like in game three, the wheels came off. The Panthers pinned the Rangers in their end pretty much the rest of the game. They outshot New York 29-10. It was only through the sheer brilliance of their Vezina trophy goaltender that they didn't lose in regulation. A reckless cross-ice pass by Mika Zibanejad at the blue line in the opening minute of OT forced Blake Wheeler to take a hooking penalty, which led to the game winning, power play goal by Sam Reinhart.

Optimistically, one could say that the Rangers accomplished what they had to do in Florida: they got the split and recaptured home ice. Realistically, however, they are very fortunate to be tied. By any and all rights, the Panthers should be ahead 3-1 with a chance to close out the series at the Garden Thursday night. And here's the dilemma the Rangers find themselves in: not only are they being badly outplayed by the Panthers, their record going into a game five hardly elicits confidence. Including the last series against the Canes, since the 1991-92 season, the Rangers are 13-23 overall in game fives, 0-6 in their last six conference finals, four of which were at home. Talk about having two strikes against you.

The simple truth is that the Panthers top players are playing better than the Rangers top players. Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaaeghe have eight goals between them, while Mika Zibanaejad, Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck have two. Indeed, the Rangers most effective forwards against Florida so far have been Alexis Lafreniere and Barclay Goodrow. Each player has three goals a piece.

While it was encouraging that their power play finally showed some life in game four, the Rangers still haven't been able to solve the Panthers forecheck. They continue to get pinned down in their own end. The relentlessness of the Florida attack is forcing New York into turnovers that are leading to scoring chances against Shesterkin. According to Steve Valiquette, the Panthers had 12 high-danger scoring chances to the Rangers 5 in game four. It was 11-2 in the second and third periods.

And even when the Rangers do manage to successfully exit their zone, they have been unable to sustain much of a forecheck in the Panthers zone. That's because Florida is number one in the NHL in puck retrieval. Below is a breakdown of the shot totals in games three and four. They reveal the enormity of the Rangers problem.

Put succinctly, these numbers are unsustainable. No goaltending in the world can overcome such a disparity. The Hurricanes outshot the Rangers, sure, but many of their shots were from the permitter. The Panthers are getting more than a third of their total shot attempts from the slot. There is not one shot stat above in which the Blueshirts are competitive. If these numbers don't improve by game five, the Rangers season will come to an end June 1.

There is plenty of blame to go around, but the lion's share has to go to Zibanejad and Kreider. Neither has registered a point so far in this series. Zibanaejad, in particular, hasn't scored a goal since game one of the Carolina series. He missed a wide open net while the Rangers were on their second power play of the first period in game four, which would've given his team a 2-0 lead. His lack of judgment on that cross-ice pass in OT cost his team a win. And while Kreider's hat trick in game six against the Hurricanes clinched that series for the Rangers, he has a grand total of five shots on goal in this series, none in game four.

Zibanejad and Kreider aren't the only ones with a lot at stake. At his postgame presser, head coach Peter Laviolette expressed frustration at the Rangers inability to handle the Florida forecheck. "We're spending a little too much time playing defense, especially in the second period, and we're not able to move and generate the way we want to out there." Laviolette was brought in specifically to make the necessary adjustments to get this team over the hump. If he's stumped, that's a problem.

Whether it's splitting up Bonnie and Clyde or starting the second power play unit ahead of the first, the time for patience is over. Two years ago, Gerard Gallant chose to stand pat while the Tampa Bay Lightning ended the Rangers season. A repeat performance at the hands of the Panthers will not sit well with a fanbase that has been waiting 30 years for another moment that will last a lifetime.

The Sunshine Snatch

This just in: Authorities in Sunrise, Florida are investigating an alleged heist that took place at Amerant Bank Arena yesterday afternoon. The Florida Panthers, according to law enforcement officials, were robbed of what should've been a win and a 2-1 series lead against the New York Rangers. While they don't yet know the identity of the culprit, they do have a description. He's 6-1, 197 lbs, and was last seen driving on I-95 wearing a goalie mask. Police are encouraging anyone with knowledge of the whereabouts of this individual to contact their local precinct before game four on Tuesday.

Seriously, what happened in game three made the 1978 Lufthansa heist look like a couple kids stealing their buddy's lunch money. Igor Shesterkin - the above culprit, in case you were wondering - has stolen many a game in his relatively brief career as an NHL goaltender. None could compare with what we witnessed yesterday afternoon, especially in the third period, when the Rangers spent most of the twenty minutes trapped in their own end. After tying the score at 4 at the 6:58 mark, the Panthers tried repeatedly to get the go-ahead goal, but were turned away each and every time. Not even a time out called by Peter Laviolette with 11:30 left in regulation was able to stem the onslaught.

It was, without a doubt, the worst period of hockey the Rangers have played in these playoffs, and that includes the third period in game five against the Carolina Hurricanes. Conversely, it was the Panthers best period, certainly in this series. Which makes the result - a 5-4 OT win for the Blueshirts - that much more remarkable.

Consider the following: The Rangers are 0-8 on the power play through three games; their top players - Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox - have yet to score a goal; and the team as a whole has played maybe four good periods of hockey the entire series. By any objective metric, the Panthers should be up 2-1 instead of down 1-2. And yet, strange as it may seem, the Rangers are two wins away from their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in ten years.

The lack of production from the stars is becoming alarming and is unsustainable. As Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post pointed out, "Either the Rangers are so deep that they might be unbeatable, or their stars are in such a slump that they might be doomed." Yesterday, it looked more like the former as Barclay Goodrow - AKA Clarke Gillies - scored a pair of goals, the latter while New York was shorthanded, and Alex Wennberg - one goal in 19 regular-season games as a Ranger and none in the playoffs - netted the game winner in OT.

But if New York wants to avoid the latter, it must get its power play going, and soon. As I wrote in my last piece, "there is no pathway to a Stanley Cup for the Rangers that doesn't include a productive power play." The Panthers, with one power play goal in game two and two in game three, are winning the special teams battle. Their relentless forechecking is starting to take its toll. Eventually, it will wear the Rangers down. It's only a matter of time. Resiliency can only take you so far in the postseason. Just ask the New York Knicks.

Look, the Panthers are the bigger team; that's pretty obvious. The Rangers, when they get their transition game going, are the faster one. We've seen examples of that speed in this series. We need to see more, a lot more.

Two years ago, the Rangers held a 2-1 lead over the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference Finals before finally running out of gas. This year's team didn't have to play as many games to get to this point. That could prove to be the difference between winning the Cup or falling short.

We'll know soon enough if it is.

Goody Enough

For sixty minutes, the New York Rangers threw everything they had at the Florida Panthers. They fought tooth and nail for every inch of ice. They scraped, they clawed, they hit and they got hit. They were twice the team they were in game one. And all it got them was a 1-1 tie going into overtime. The Panthers, having won game one at the Garden 3-0, and with it home ice, were playing with house money. A win would give them a stranglehold on the series going back to their home arena. The Rangers were looking at an almost impossible task, one that only one team since 1945 had accomplished: winning a best of seven conference or league final series after dropping the first two games at home.

Barclay Goodrow's snapshot from the slot at 14:01 of OT didn't just win the game for the Rangers, it saved their season. If ever there was a must win situation, last night was it. So now the Presidents' Trophy winners get an opportunity to recapture home ice with a split in Sunrise, Florida. The hockey gods were indeed merciful, for a change.

But while Goodrow's teammates celebrated their good fortune, there is still much work that needs to be done if this team is to advance to the finals for the first time since 2014, and only the second time since their Cup year of 1994. For starters, the special teams have been anything but special of late. After going 11-25 on the power play in their first six postseason games, the Rangers have gone 1-16 over their last six, including 0-4 last night. The Rangers record over those first six games was 6-0; over the last six, it's 3-3.

The concern is palpable. Going into this series with the Panthers, the Rangers had two advantages going for them: their goaltending and their power play. Well, Igor Shesterkin has held up his end of the bargain. The former Vezina Trophy winner has gone toe to toe with Sergei Bobrovsky. Not counting the own goal Alexis Lafreniere deflected past him in game one, Shesterkin has stopped 51 of 53 shots on goal for a .962 save percentage through two games. That's the sort of brilliance that can earn a player the Conn-Smythe Award.

But no matter how brilliant Igor may be, he cannot drag this team across the finish line all by himself. He needs help. Put succinctly, there is no pathway to a Stanley Cup for the Rangers that doesn't include a productive power play. None. Their 5v5 play simply isn't good enough. During the regular season, New York had a GF% of 50.15 at 5v5. By contrast, Florida was 56.57. The fact is the Rangers got lucky last night. They actually outscored the Panthers 2-0 at even strength. Depending on that luck to continue would be foolhardy.

The problem is a familiar one. For all the elite talent on this team, the Rangers power play remains as predictable as dirt. They tried mixing it up a bit against the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes, and, eureka, it worked. But then like a drunk on a bender, the old habits returned. Since game three of the Canes series, the Blueshirts have stubbornly resisted even tweaking their power play. The results - one power play goal in the last six games - speak for themselves. The Panthers know exactly what's coming and they are prepared for it. In the first two games of this series, the Rangers have yet to register a single high-danger scoring chance with the man advantage. If Peter Laviolette and his staff don't rectify this problem soon, game five will be the last home game of the season for this team.

But even if they manage to fix the power play, there's one more nagging issue that besets them. The Rangers continue to have trouble exiting the defensive zone. While not as proficient as game one, Florida was still able to pin New York in its own end most of the game. The lack of clean exits is bound to take its toll as the series progresses, especially the way the Panthers take the body. The Rangers must find a way to get the puck into the neutral zone that doesn't involve multiple hits along the boards. Laviolette was hired because of his ability to make adjustments on the fly. Now would be a good time to make at least two of them.

Game three is Sunday afternoon. The Rangers are tied with the Panthers. They have Barclay Goodrow to thank for that.

Panthers Send Rangers a Wakeup Call

The scoresheet said Florida 1, New York 0 late in the third period. Close game, right? Well, if you were on the ESPN app, maybe. But no one who watched the game live could, if they were being honest, say it was close. Apart from a brief flurry with just over seven minutes left in the game, in which Alexis Lafreniere hit the post, the Panthers played, for all intents and purposes, a flawless road game.

Quite frankly, I was taken aback by the posts I saw on Twitter. The normally critical fanbase was bending over backwards to rationalize what happened at MSG last night. "It's just one game.""They were one play away from tying the score." "No need to panic." "They were rusty." "The Panthers aren't really that good."

I agree with most of the above statements. Yes, it is only one game. Even the '94 team lost game one against the New Jersey Devils in the Conference Finals and game one against the Vancouver Canucks in the Cup Finals before winning in seven. It still takes four games to win a series. Yes, despite being outplayed, they were one play away from tying the score. Yes, I agree, there's no need to panic; Laviolette and his coaching staff will make adjustments. And, finally, they did look rusty, or perhaps tentative would be a better word; that won't be the case in game two, hopefully.

But let's get something straight right now. The Panthers really are this good. They put on a clinic last night. They pinned the Rangers in their own end most of the game and dictated the play. I counted on one hand the number of times the Blueshirts had a clean exit into the neutral zone that wasn't intercepted by the Panthers and dumped back in. The only reason it was still 1-0 halfway through the third period was because Igor Shesterkin made several key saves, especially in the second period where the Rangers went almost 14 minutes without a shot on goal. The normally raucous Garden crowd sounded more like they were attending a funeral than a playoff game, that's how quiet it was.

Consider the following: since losing game one of their last series against the Boston Bruins 5-1, the Panthers have not given up more than two goals per game once. Check out these scores: 6-1 Panthers, 6-2 Panthers, 3-2 Panthers, 2-1 Bruins, 2-1 Panthers and 3-0 Panthers. And lest you think this was all Sergei Bobrovsky's doing, the players in front of him did most of the heavy lifting. The shots on goal against were 15, 17, 18, 28, 23 and 23 respectively. Even Freddie Andersen couldn't have blown those games, though I suspect he would've tried.

This isn't the Carolina Hurricanes the Rangers are playing here. This is the toughest opponent they have faced, quite possibly in years. The Panthers have size and depth throughout their lineup; they can defend as well as any team in the NHL; and they have a world-class goalie in net just in case they make a mistake. Beating them will require more than just an adjustment or two.

The fact is, despite the outcome, New York didn't play all that badly last night. This wasn't a repeat performance of game five against the Canes in which the Rangers managed only one high danger scoring chance. The Blueshirts actually showed up for this one; the Panthers were simply the better team from start to finish.

Which is why the Rangers, if they have any hope of winning this series, are going to have to go where they historically have resisted going: the middle of the ice. Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanajed must drive to the net when they have the puck. Pulling up in the offensive zone and forcing a cross-ice pass that has no chance of connecting with a teammate is only making the Panthers job easier. To advance in the postseason you need to go where angels fear to tread. Yes, they will get hit, and hit hard, if they do that. But that's part of the game.

Chris Kreider summed it up best: "Our whole entire game has to be a lot better. It wasn't there nearly enough tonight. It boils down to playing north-south hockey, getting pucks out, getting pucks in. That's the kind of hockey they played."

Bottom line: there needs to be a greater sense of urgency from everyone; a desire to do whatever it takes to win. The Panthers showed that desire last night; the Rangers must find it by game two or this will be a very short series.

NHL Playoff Preview (Round Three)

And then there were four.

The conference finals are set to begin this week, and for the second time in three years the Rangers find themselves on the verge of a finals appearance, having dispatched the analytics darlings of the hockey world: the Carolina Hurricanes.

I went four for four in the last round, which brings my playoff record up to an outstanding 11-1. My lone blemish was the Winnipeg Jets. I still can't get over just how badly they were beaten by the Colorado Avalanche. 

Unlike last season, there are no surprises here. No wildcards that got hot late and made a run. All four of these conference finalists are legit Stanley Cup contenders, meaning any one of them could find themselves hoisting that chalice in June. And that makes this the most unpredictable third round in years.

Like the last round, I'll start with the East and end with the West.

Eastern Conference:

New York vs. Florida: The last time these two franchises met in the postseason was 1997. It would be the last hurrah for Messier, Gretzky, Tikkanen, Leetch and Richter, and also the last time the Blueshirts would make the playoffs until 2006.

Both these teams avoided long, drawn-out series in their first two rounds. The Rangers swept the Washington Capitals and beat the Hurricanes in six, while the Panthers needed only five games to defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning and six games to send the Boston Bruins packing. That means that both teams will have plenty in the gas tank this round. And they will need it.

It's no secret that the Rangers rely on their special teams and elite goaltending. Against the Canes, New York went 5-18 on the power play and scored two short handed goals, while Carolina went 2-21. Overall in the playoffs, the Rangers power play is operating at 31.4 percent, while their penalty kill is at 89.5 percent. Both are second best among active playoff teams. The Panthers power play isn't quite as impressive, coming in at 22.0 percent. However, their penalty kill is a formidable 86.1 percent.

Both teams have elite forwards in their top six, led by Artemi Panarin for the Rangers and Sam Reinhart for the Panthers, and depth throughout the lineup, though Florida's third line is slightly better than New York's. Both teams have solid defensive pairings, though the Panthers D is slightly bigger and more physical, Jacob Trouba notwithstanding. The key for the Rangers will be Adam Fox. The former Norris Trophy winner has only four assists in the playoffs. He needs to step it up in this series.

As in the last round, goaltending will be crucial for New York. Igor Shesterkin outperformed Freddie Andersen, who as it turned out, didn't quite live up to his billing. The Rangers net minder has a 2.40 goals against average and a .923 save percentage in ten games. His opponent, Sergei Bobrovsky, has a 2.37 goals against average and a .902 save percentage in eleven games.

Unlike the Hurricanes, the Panthers just don't throw a ton of shots at the net in an attempt to create "chaos." They excel at driving to the net and creating high-danger scoring chances. It is imperative that the Rangers stay disciplined with their puck management and do their best to keep the area in front of their net as clear as possible. The more pucks Igor sees, the more saves he will be able to make. The Panthers led the league during the regular season in being penalized, mostly due to their physical style of play. If that trend continues in this series, the Rangers must make them pay.

Interesting tidbit: Paul Maurice and Peter Laviolette share something in common. They both coached the Hurricanes. Maurice was replaced by Laviolette in '04. Then in '08, Laviolette was replaced by Maurice. Both men left notes for each other.

Last year, the Panthers made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals before losing to the Vegas Golden Knights. The Rangers, after advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals the year before, were eliminated in the first round by the New Jersey Devils. Both teams have something to prove to themselves and to their respective fan bases. This should be one helluva series. Rangers in seven.

Western Conference:

Dallas vs. Edmonton: Last season, the Stars lost to the Golden Knights in the Western Conference Finals. This season, they knocked off Vegas in the first round and now find themselves up against the NHL's perennial bridesmaids. The Oilers, led by Connor McDavid, have been knocking on Lord Stanley's door for the last four years but have never made it passed the conference finals. This season under Kris Knoblauch, they've learned how to take care of their own end. The result is an offense that can still light up the sky combined with a defense that can shut down opponents.

The Stars have the edge in depth - they can roll four lines - and in goal. But the Oilers have the edge on special teams where their 37.5 percent power play will wreak havoc on a Stars penalty kill unit that is a woeful 69.2 percent. It should be noted that the Colorado Avalanche also had a very potent power play - 36.7 percent - yet still lost to the Stars.

Two years ago, I picked the Oilers over the Avs in six. So what happened? The Avs swept the Oilers. This time around, I'm going with the better all-around team. Stars in six.

Just in case the Rangers don't advance, this is my prediction for the Stanley Cup Finals: 

Panthers over the Stars 4-3. 

Conn-Smythe Trophy: Matthew Tkachuk 

NHL Playoff Preview (Round Two)

One round is in the books - almost. Three to go. 

Round two begins Sunday afternoon with the New York Rangers hosting the Carolina Hurricanes at Madison Square Garden. We'll have to wait until later tonight to find out who gets the "pleasure" of playing the Colorado Avalanche: the Vegas Golden Knights or the Dallas Stars. The only surprise so far was how badly the Winnipeg Jets played. The number one defense in the NHL during the regular season got lit up like a Christmas tree by the Avs, and the likely Vezina trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck surrendered a total of 24 goals on 177 shots over five games for a save percentage of .870.

Just like I did in the last round, I will begin my preview of round two with the Rangers and work my way down by conference. I do this in fun, so no wagering.

Eastern Conference:

New York vs. Carolina: For the third time in four years, these two teams will meet in the postseason. The Hurricanes beat the Rangers 3-0 in the 2020 Qualifying Round; the Blueshirts returned the favor two years laster, winning 4-3 in the Eastern Conference semifinals. This will be the first time since round one in '20 that Carolina won't have home ice in a playoff series.

Both teams disposed of their first round "opponents" in short order: the Rangers in four; the Hurricanes in five. Both teams are genuine Cup contenders with elite-level talent that are capable of going all the way. Both are well coached and both have excellent special teams. Ten different players scored for the Rangers against the Caps, while twelve different players scored for the Canes against the Isles, so clearly depth is not an issue for either team.

Since their last playoff meeting, the Rangers and Hurricanes have made changes to their rosters; the former by signing center Vincent Trocheck, the latter by acquiring winger Jake Guentzel at the trade deadline. Both players have improved their respective teams. If Filip Chytil, who's been out with a concussion since November, plays, that will give the Blueshirts a third scoring line.

Two years ago, the Rangers had a huge advantage in net. That won't be the case this time around. While Igor Shesterkin is still the better goalie, Frederik Andersen, who was out due to injury in '22, narrows the gap significantly for the Canes. There'll be no blowouts in this series. Expect a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games with both teams winning at least one game in the other's arena. Look for Peter Laviolette to use the Alex Wennberg line on the Sebastian Aho line.

This series will go the distance. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes overtime to decide the winner. Rangers in seven.

Florida vs. Boston: For those assuming the winner of the Rangers / Hurricanes series is a lock for the finals, I would advise them to cool their jets. Florida was quite impressive in their five-game takedown of the Tampa Bay Lightning. There isn't a weakness on this Panthers team. They have depth throughout their lineup and elite goaltending. Meanwhile, the Bruins needed a full seven games to defeat a Toronto Maple Leafs team that was without Auston Matthews for two of those games. I doubt the Puddy Tats will need that many to do the same to them. Panthers in five.

Western Conference:

Dallas or Vegas vs. Colorado: The Avalanche went through the Winnipeg Jets like shit through a goose. They won't be so fortunate against either the Stars or the Golden Knights, both of whom are putting on a clinic for how hockey is supposed to be played. That's because both teams are considerably deeper and faster than the Jets and can go toe to toe with the Avs. Stars or Golden Knights in seven.

Vancouver vs. Edmonton: In some respects this might be the most intriguing series of the playoffs. The Canucks have made several trips to the finals, but have never won the Cup. The Oilers haven't won it since the glory days of Gretzky and Messier, but have come up short over the last few years. Rick Tocchet might win the Jack Adams award but it's Kris Knoblauch who's gotten Connor McDavid and Co. to commit to playing defense. If Thatcher Demko can't go for Vancouver, this could get ugly. Oilers in six.

In the event the Rangers don't advance, these are my predictions for the balance of the playoffs and year-end awards:

Playoffs:

Eastern Conference Finals: Panthers over Hurricanes 4-2

Western Conference Finals: Stars or Golden Knights over Oilers 4-3

Stanley Cup Finals: Panthers over Stars or Golden Knights 4-3

Conn-Smythe Trophy: Matthew Tkachuk

Year-end Awards:

Hart Trophy: Nathan MacKinnon

Jack Adams Award: Rick Tocchet

Norris Trophy: Quinn Hughes

Vezina Trophy: Connor Hellebuyck