NHL Playoff Preview (Third Round)

So now it's down to four. The conference finals are upon us, and for the first time in years, we will have two incredible series to watch. No "systems" designed to slow down the game or thwart the other team's advantage. All four of these teams rely on their elite-level talent to propel them to victory. Like the NBA does every spring, the NHL will have the opportunity to showcase to millions of casual hockey fans just how great this sport can be when the stars take charge.

I went three for four in the last round; with Carolina the only team that didn't cover. Like I wrote earlier, next time I'll trust my heart. And while I usually resist the urge to look ahead, spoiler alert, the prohibitive favorite to capture the Stanley Cup will likely come from the East.

Without further ado,

Eastern Conference:

New York vs. Tampa Bay: What a matchup. The youngest team in the playoffs against the two-time Stanley Cup champions. The good news is that the Rangers will have home ice in this series. The bad news is that the one huge advantage they've had in these playoffs - goaltending - will be nullified. As brilliant as Igor Shesterkin has been, Andrei Vasilevskiy is in another world. Consider he held the Florida Panthers - the NHL's number one offense - to a measly three goals in four games. His save percentage was an astounding .981 in that series.

Unlike the Hurricanes, the Lightning have an exceptional power play, even without Brayden Point. The Rangers are going to have to stay out of the penalty box or they will get lit up. Another piece of good news is that forwards like Artemi Panarin should finally have the space to create offense that the Canes took away. Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox will go toe to toe with Stephen Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman.

Both teams' GMs did exceptionally well adding valuable pieces at the trade deadline. Julien BriseBois has the inside track to be executive of the year. It's clear Chris Drury is attempting to copy the Lightning model. He brought in Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Reaves and Sammy Blais during the offseason to toughen up this roster and it has paid dividends.

The experts are all picking Tampa, and I totally get it. This Lightning team is the best the NHL has seen since those legendary New York Islanders teams of the 1980s. Sans Ondrej Palat, this core will be together for at least one more year. It is not out of the realm of possibility that they could win four cups in a row. 

And yet, even with all that, the Rangers still represent a serious threat to their reign. If they can jump out to an early series lead, they do have the depth to push the Bolts to the very edge. Sooner or later all those playoff games have got to take their toll. Rangers in seven.

Western Conference:

Colorado vs. Edmonton: I'm not much of a gambler but I'm gonna go out on a limb here and predict that betting the over will pay handsomely in this series. Forget about Auston Matthews, Conor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon are the two best players in the NHL, and if you enjoy watching elite hockey players put on a show, you will be in for a treat with these two. Think Wayne Gretzky and Mark Messier. Yes, they're that good. The goaltenders will have their work cut out for them.

The Avalanche have the advantage by virtue of having home ice. Also Cale Makar will be the best defenseman in this series, not that there will be much defense on display. This could be turn into a track meet fast. Just look at what the Oilers did to Vezina trophy finalist Jacob Markstrom in the last round. I actually felt sorry for him.

The smart money's on Colorado, but my gut tells me the Oilers have something going for them. The way McDavid is lighting up the score sheet, there might be nothing that can stop him. And I wasn't exactly thrilled at the way the Avs blew that three goal lead against the St. Louis Blues at home. Oilers in six.

Did the Rangers Wait Too Long to Re-Sign Adam Fox?

By now you've heard that the Boston Bruins have re-signed their all-star defenseman Charlie McAvoy to an eight-year, $76 million dollar contract extension beginning in 2022-23. For those who didn't bring their calculators with them, that's $9.5 million per year. Or, as we say in New York, "a fuckin' lotta dough."

Just where the Bruins, who are $1.2 million under the cap this season, intend to get that "dough" remains a mystery, especially since Patrice Bergeron, their all-star center, is currently making $6.875 and will be a UFA next summer. But that's their problem.

They say timing is everything. Lost in all the hoopla of the Rangers signing Mika Zibanejad to an eight year, $8.5 million AAV contract is the fact that they have a plethora of pending contracts that will have to be either re-upped or moved over the next couple of seasons. And the biggest of those is Adam Fox, who is in the last year of an entry level contract worth $925,000 per.

With Cale Makar re-signing in Colorado for $9 million per over the summer, the market for defensemen who can score is pretty much set. By waiting as long as they did, the Rangers may have boxed themselves into a corner with their Norris-trophy winner. After the Zibanejad signing, there was some optimism that Chris Drury might be able to persuade Fox to agree to a similar, team-friendly contract. The McAvoy signing pretty much tosses that scenario out the window. At this point, Drury will be lucky if he can get Fox to accept $9 million per. Shit, if Seth Jones is worth $9.5 million, how much is Fox worth?

Welcome to life in the flat salary cap era, or as it's better known in the NHL, the Hunger Games. The Rangers, who for the last three seasons have "enjoyed" the benefits of being among the youngest teams in the league, are about to find out what happens when that youth grows up. In addition to Fox, Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafreniere and K'Andre Miller will all see their ELCs expire over the next two years, and barring something unforeseen, all will be due substantial pay raises. Maybe Vitali Kravtsov did them a solid by going AWOL after all. If they can move him for a 2nd rounder or a serviceable forward with a reasonable cap hit, that'll be one less headache for Drury to deal with next summer.

But getting back to Fox, did you see the way he played Thursday night? It was as if the puck was glued to his stick. If Wayne Gretzky had been a defenseman instead of a center, he would've looked just like Fox. Drury is going to have to bite the bullet here. There are some contracts you don't fuck around with. If he's this good at 23, imagine what he's going to look like two or three years from now. 

Get him signed. Get him signed now! If it takes $9.5 mill per to get it done, then that's what it takes. Fuck it, if it takes $10 mill, do it. In five years, it'll be a bargain. Think about it: right now, Artemi Panarin is the best player on this team. Who knows, in a couple of seasons, Fox might supplant him. He's that good.

I know there are risks involved in assembling a top heavy roster. Just ask the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Edmonton Oilers. Both teams have a substantial portion of their salary cap tied up in just a few players. And as a result, both have had a hard time acquiring the depth needed to make a serious run at the Cup. I won't lie to you, that fate could await the Rangers.

But the greater risk, in my opinion, would be letting a generational player like Fox walk because you want the "freedom" to pursue lesser players that, and let's be honest, can be had in any given off season. Yes, the Tampa Bay Lightning would not have won either of their two Stanley Cups if they didn't have foot soldiers like Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman in the trenches; but they would never have gotten close if they didn't have world-class talent like Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point. You need both types of players to win a championship these days.

Adam Fox is the best defenseman the Rangers have had since the days of Brian Leetch. Hell, he might even be better. Chris Drury must make every effort to ensure he never plays for another organization.

Three Reasons Why the Rangers Shouldn't Trade for Jack Eichel

Before I get to Jack Eichel, a few thoughts on the Goodrow signing. $3.642 million per year for six years may seem a little steep, but when you consider what he brings to the table, you can live with it. In fact, when this contract expires in 2027, Goodrow will be the same age Cal Clutterbuck will be next year when his contract expires, and he's getting paid $3.5 million. Question, who would you rather have, Goodrow or Clutterbuck? Before you answer that, go back and watch game seven against the Islanders. It's pretty clear that Goodrow was the better player. 

The fact is Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman and Goodrow were, pound for pound, the best skaters on the ice for the Lightning in both the semifinals and Cup finals. If Chris Drury can add Coleman and a physical defenseman this summer, he will go a long way towards making this team considerably tougher to play against next season.

Which leads me to... the main course.

There are three reasons why the Rangers should NOT trade for Eichel.

The health concerns: I've never had a neck injury, but from everything I've read, it's one of the most serious and chronic conditions an athlete can have. And it's nothing to trifle with. Even if Eichel is 100 percent ready to go by September - and that's highly unlikely given what we know about his condition - he's one cross check away from spending half a season or more on the I.R. It would be the height of irresponsibility for Drury to acquire a player who might not be able to finish out his contract, and even if he does, will be a shell of himself for the balance of it. The risk is simply too great here.

The contract: Given that there will be a flat cap in the league for the next few years, Eichel's $10 million salary is a huge nut for an organization that still hasn't signed its own RFAs, a list that includes Pavel Buchnevich and Igor Shesterkin. Next year, they will have to pony up to retain Adam Fox, Kaapo Kakko, Ryan Strome and Mika Zibanejad. And the year after that, Alexis Lafreniere will be a restricted free agent. Even if Drury trades both Buchnevich and Strome - and there appear to be some suitors - as I wrote in my last piece, whomever he gets in return will not come cheap. 

Fox's contract alone could come in at between $7 million and $9 million per year depending on what the Colorado Avalanche and Cale Makar come to terms with this summer. Makar, an RFA, was the runner up to Fox for the Norris Trophy last season. If Drury doesn't have the money to keep these players, then everything this organization and its fans went through the last four years will be for naught. The key to his success will be how well he manages the resources he has.

The wrong fit: Even without the neck injury and with a salary cap that isn't flat, Eichel is the wrong fit for this franchise. He does nothing to address the team's most glaring needs. If anything, he's a younger version of Zibanejad with a higher price tag and a slightly less imposing shot. If Drury were to trade for him, he'd have to give up assets that would weaken other areas of the team - I'm guessing Filip Chytil, K'Andre Miller, either Vitali Kravtsov or Kakko and a number one draft pick. That is simply too steep a price to pay.

Instead of trying to replicate the Toronto Maple Leafs, an organization that has been an unmitigated disaster in the postseason, Drury should borrow a page out of Lou Lamoriello's playbook. There isn't one player on the Islanders with a contract over $7 million, and they were one win away from the Stanley Cup finals. With a few maneuvers this off-season, the best GM in the business is positioning his team to, once again, contend for the Cup. And with a healthy Anders Lee, they might just win it.

I'll say it again: The way the NHL is currently structured, teams that are overly laden with talented players simply don't succeed. What you need is a healthy balance between talent and grit. The Lightning have some of the most talented players in hockey, yet it was their foot soldiers who were responsible for them winning back-to-back Cups. Don't take my word for it; just go to the video tape, as an old New York sportscaster was fond of saying.

The Rangers have some talented players of their own. Maybe not on the same level as the Lightning, but hardly chopped liver. After they buy out Tony DeAngelo's contract, they will have around $23 million to spend, minus the $3 million or so they will need for performance bonuses. Drury has the 15th pick in Friday's Entry Draft. He can either keep it or include it in a package for a player or players that can help this team become a legitimate playoff contender. For instance, Tampa doesn't have a number one pick this year. Would they consider trading Anthony Cirelli and Ross Colton for Chytil, Kravtsov, Zac Jones and the Rangers number one pick? It's certainly worth a phone call to find out. 

In Seattle, after a less than impressive Expansion Draft, it's obvious that Ron Francis needs help at center. Given he's got enough left handed defensemen to start an army with, I'm sure a trade could be worked out. Perhaps Strome straight up for Carson Soucy. The Kraken get a solid pivot man and Drury gets the sturdy defenseman he needs on the third pairing along with $1.75 million in cap relief.

And then there's the free agent market. As we've already seen, Drury isn't hesitant about going that route. While Goodrow was a nice beginning, as Larry Brooks writes in The New York Post, he needs to be surrounded with "complimentary players" in order to be effective. The Rangers didn't sign Nick Fotiu here.

The point is, Drury has options available to him. What he can ill afford is to tie up 12 percent of his salary cap on a one-dimensional, albeit, star that'll light up the score sheet against the Devils and Sabres but get pushed around by the Islanders and Bruins. He already has an abundance of those types of players.

Which direction will he go? We'll know soon enough.