The Pros and Cons of Rangers Trading for J.T. Miller

Before I get to J.T. Miller, a word on the new Covid-19 protocols that the NHL and the NHL Players' association jointly announced. Beginning February 3, the league will no longer test fully vaccinated, asymptomatic players. Only players who develop symptoms will be tested, and if positive, will be isolated. The lone exception will be teams that travel across the border to Canada. In those instances, the protocols will be dictated by the "relevant health authorities." In other words, for teams in the lower 48, the NHL will adopt the NFL protocols; for teams in Canada, the Provinces will run the show.

It's a welcome sign that this league, which was forced to postpone dozens of games over the last six weeks, has finally admitted what the medical experts have been saying for a couple of months now: that while Covid-19 isn't going anywhere, for the vast majority of people who are fully vaccinated, the health risk is relatively small. In the end, pragmatism won out. Good for them, and good for the fans who will now be able to see their teams play at or near full capacity.

Now onto the main topic. Frank Seravalli of Daily Face-off is reporting that the Rangers are one of the teams interested in trading for the services of the Vancouver Canucks' center. 

Let's assume for the moment that Seravalli is right and Chris Drury is serious about re-acquiring the player his predecessor Jeff Gorton sent packing in 2017, along with Ryan McDonagh, in what is now considered one of the franchise's most lopsided trades. 

It would signal two things: 1. After returning home from a 3-2 road trip that saw them take over first place in the Metropolitan division with 54 points, Drury believes this team has a legitimate shot at a deep run in the postseason; and 2. Contract negotiations with Ryan Strome's agent don't appear to be going well. If I had to guess, I'd say it's mostly the latter that is driving this bus.

With Strome scheduled to become a UFA after the season, it's logical to assume he is seeking a rather long and substantial payday, say six years at around $7 million AAV. He's currently making $4.5 million. Given the cap constraints the Rangers will be under for the foreseeable future, such a contract would be too rich for Drury's blood. So unless he can talk Strome's agent down to a more mutually beneficial number, say four years at closer to $5.75M AAV, Drury's hands will be tied.

Hence the Miller speculation.

Of course, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to learn that Drury is floating the idea of a possible class reunion with Miller to force Strome's agent to come to the table. I can't be the only one who thinks it wasn't a coincidence that within 24 hours after Larry Brooks of The New York Post reported last October that the Rangers would only be interested in trading for Jack Eichel if they believed they couldn't re-sign Mika Zibanejad that the two sides miraculously came to an agreement on a contract extension. The more I see of Drury, the more impressed I become with him.

So, what are the pros and cons of J.T. Miller coming back to the organization that drafted him?

The pros:

1. Since his departure from Broadway, Miller has developed into one of the better pivotmen in the NHL, averaging just under a point a game over the last three seasons. With 38 points in 38 games, he is currently the leading scorer on the Canucks this year. As a Ranger, he would be tied with Artemi Panarin for second in team scoring, right behind Adam Fox, who has 39.

2. In addition to his offense, Miller is exceptional on draws. At 53.5 percent, he would be tops on the Rangers. For a team that has struggled winning face-offs over the last few years, this would be like manna from heaven.

3. Miller has one of the best team-friendly contracts in the league at $5.25 million AAV and is signed thru 2023. Re-acquiring him would give Drury the financial flexibility he needs to retain Kaapo Kakko, who is scheduled to become an RFA after the season. It also doesn't hamstring him if he wants to acquire a rental like Reilly Smith from the Vegas Golden Knights. Imagine a top line of Chris Kreider, Zibanaejad and Smith and a second line of Panarin, Miller and Strome, who I assume would shift to right wing. Now that would be a helluva one-two punch.

The cons:

1. Strome is gone. I've crunched the numbers over and over and there's no way the Rangers can afford to keep both Miller and Strome next season. Even if they decide to let Kakko walk - a bad idea - and they find someone to take Patrik Nemeth off their hands, they still don't have the room for both players. With the salary cap scheduled to increase by only one million to $82.5 in 2022-23 - and that's assuming the Omicron variant doesn't impact the league's bottom line further - a lot of teams are going to be faced with some tough choices next season, the Rangers no exception. Face it, this pandemic has really fucked things up royally.

2. The chemistry on the team could suffer. So far this season, the Rangers have been one of the most resilient teams in the NHL. They continue to defy the analytics gods who insist they aren't as good as their record suggests. They currently have the third-best penalty kill percentage in the league and their power play has been in the top ten for most of the season. They also boast one of the best goaltenders in Igor Shesterkin. His acrobatics in net have allowed them to win games they had no business winning. Trading for Miller could upset the apple cart, so to speak. There's no way of telling how Panarin would react knowing that Strome's days with the team are numbered. Drury would be taking a huge gamble potentially pissing off his top winger.

3. Despite Miller's team-friendly contract, Drury would only be kicking the can down the road an additional year. Come the '23 season, he'd be faced with the same dilemma he's facing now: a pending UFA he can't afford to re-sign. With no one in the system capable of stepping in - and let's face it, Morgan Barron is not the answer - Drury would have the daunting task of trying to find someone who can put up numbers comparable to either Strome or Miller, and who doesn't cost a king's ransom. Good luck with that.

So why Miller and not someone like Tomas Hertl of the San Jose Sharks? As a UFA, Hertl would be the ideal rental and Drury could land him without sacrificing any of his valuable assets. Then there's Claude Giroux. With the Philadelphia Flyers sinking faster than the Lusitania, a second-rounder and a couple of prospects might do the trick.

A rental, of course, assumes Drury can re-sign Strome. All things being equal, he'd probably prefer to do that. But if Strome's agent plays hardball, Drury may have no other option than to pull the trigger on Miller. Getting him won't be cheap. Vancouver will demand at the very least a first round pick, a young center who can develop - Filip Chytil makes sense - and a top prospect - anyone but Braden Schneider, Will Cuylle or Brennan Othmann.

We're About To Find Out What the Rangers Are Made Of

Let's cut to the chase. Wednesday night's 4-3 loss against the Florida Panthers was disappointing. Yes, Igor Shesterkin let in a couple of soft goals, and, yes, if Ryan Strome had scored on that breakaway early in the third period, the outcome might've been different. Shoulda, coulda woulda. Excuses, excuses, excuses. The simple truth is that what happened against the Panthers was no different than what happened against the Avalanche (twice) or the Predators or the Golden Knights. Despite their early season success, the Rangers remain a work in progress.

And now this work in progress that has turned so many heads this year is about to go from the proverbial frying pan to the fire. Beginning with Friday night's match in Tampa against the Lightning, the Blueshirts are about to embark on a stretch of fifteen games over the next four weeks, only two of which are against teams with losing records. If the last seven games - in which they went 0-4-1 against winning teams - are any indication, we're about to find out what this team is made of.

I won't mince words here. There are a couple of holes that need to be plugged if this team is going to become a legit contender. The first is right wing. As long as Gerard Gallant insists on keeping Chris Kreider on left wing, Dryden Hunt is going to continue to look out of place playing alongside Strome and Artemi Panarin. The guy is a bottom six winger, period.

And speaking of being overmatched, Julien Gauthier is in over his head. He's got the speed and he's got the size, but he can't finish worth a damn. The season-ending injury to Sammy Blais may have presented Gauthier with the gift of a lifetime, but it's a gift he seems determined to return.

Clearly Chris Drury needs to address this problem, and somehow I doubt Tim Gettinger is the answer. The perennial Hartford Wolf Pack forward was recently called up to replace Kevin Rooney who's on the Covid protocol list. With Will Cuylle is at least a year away, that means a trade is in order.

Please spare me with the Pavel Buchnevich recriminations. Look, he's gone; get over it; it's time to move on, people. So who should Drury go after?

Tomas Hertl's name has come up lately. The San Jose forward is in the last year of his contract and checks off multiple boxes. Gallant can slot him at right wing on either of the first two lines, or he can fill the other hole on this team by using him at center on the third. 

Let's face it, whether you think Filip Chytil is a bust or not, he's not working out at center, and he doesn't appear to be any better at wing. He's got one more year left at a very reasonable $2.3 million and getting rid of his salary would help Drury in his contract negotiations with Strome. And if it turns out he can't re-sign Strome, then Drury can use that money towards Hertl. Chytil for Hertl straight up makes sense.

Another name that keeps coming up, and the one I think Drury has the best chance of landing, is Reilly Smith. Not to beat a dead horse, but the Golden Knights are going to have to shed some salary to get under the cap before they can activate Jack Eichel. Smith's $5 million contract makes the most sense. He's a UFA after the season and he's just what the doctor ordered for a Rangers team that desperately needs a right winger who can finish. To get him, Drury might have to part with one of his second-round draft picks and a prospect from Hartford, perhaps Zac Jones.

As for the defense, I don't see it as a major area of concern so I don't expect Drury to make any moves here. Their top four are solid and the third pairing with Patrick Nemeth and Nils Lundkvist is serviceable for now. Don't forget, Braden Schneider will likely be with the club next year so the future looks bright. The Islanders should be this deep.

Bottom line, while the Ranges wait for Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere to, hopefully, deliver on their promise, and youngsters like Cuylle, Brennan Othman, Ryder Korczak and Schneider to develop, they cannot, and must not, let this season go to waste. A rental like Hertl or Smith can help them now without mortgaging the future. 

Drury would be a fool to pass on the opportunity.