Mets At the All-Star Break

Last year, the New York Mets went into the All-Star break with a record of 49-46, 12.5 games out of first place; this year at the break, their record stands at 55-42, a half game out of first. 

At first glance, you'd probably conclude that this Mets team is much better poised to win than last year's. But when you check under the hood, that conclusion seems a bit premature. I'll explain.

The 2024 Mets got off to a dreadful start. On June 2, they were 24-35, mired in fourth place in the National League East. CitiField looked more like a morgue than a major league ballpark. Slowly, but surely, the boys from Flushing clawed their way back into playoff contention. But it wasn't until late August that the Amazins really took off. They went 20-9 down the stretch to clinch a Wild Card spot.

This year, the Mets got off to a great start. On June 12, they were 45-24, five and a half games up on the Philadelphia Phillies. Since then, they've gone 10-18. Their bullpen, once the best in baseball, has struggled mightily. Apart from Edwin Diaz, there's not one reliever Carlos Mendoza can rely on to get a crucial out.

Reed Garrett, who had an ERA of 0.95 on June 10, has allowed nine earned runs in his last nine and a third innings. Though to be fair, eight of those earned runs came in two games; and in one of those games, he failed to record an out.

Ryne Stanek, who had an ERA of 1.04 in the month of May, has posted ERAs of 6.23 and 7.36 in June and July respectively. Mendoza, for some strange reason, elected to go to him in the 8th inning of a game in which the Mets were ahead 1-0 and David Peterson was in complete control; he then promptly surrendered a two-run home run.

Huascar Brazobán, like Garrett, got off to a very good start. In May, his ERA was 1.26. In June, it was 13.5, and in July it is currently 5.40.

Starting to notice a pattern? Hopefully David Stearns is. Because this bullpen isn't remotely good enough for a team with championship expectations. And let's get one thing straight: when you drop $765 million on a single player, the expectation is that at some point you're going to win a championship. While it's true that Steve Cohen may be an incurable optimist, he didn't get to be this successful by throwing away his money. 

But the bullpen isn't the only area of concern. Put succinctly, there are four bats in this lineup that, with a few rare exceptions, have been pretty close to automatic outs this season. Tyrone Taylor is a vacuum cleaner in center field; at home plate, he's utterly useless; Luis Torrens (.206) and Hayden Senger (.174) are outstanding defensive catchers who can barely hit AAA pitching; Mendoza has tried three different players at 3rd base and so far, none have hit well enough to win the position outright. As for the DH spot, the Mets would do better holding a telethon. Face it: as good as Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil have been, there's no way this team will win the World Series with that many holes in the batting order.

With the return of Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea, Mendoza will have a much better starting rotation in the second half. The only question is how deep can these starters go? So far, only Peterson has demonstrated he can go more than six innings. Clay Holmes is basically a five-inning pitcher, and Senga is injury prone. In other words, whichever starter the Mets send to the mound, the bullpen will likely be the difference between winning and losing.

With that in mind, Stearns would do well to focus his efforts on fortifying the pen. Middle relievers will cost less than a starter. As far as adding a bat, Harrison Bader could be had for a mid-level prospect. He's currently batting .254 with 11 home runs and 34 runs batted in for the Minnesota Twins. Last year, he hit .236 with 12 HRs and 51 RBIs for the Amazins. Assuming Francisco Alvarez gets recalled sometime this month, the hope is he can rediscover the swing he had two years ago when he smacked 25 homers. 

The good news is that even with all their flaws, the Mets are only a half game out of first. That's because the Phillies have their own flaws. It wouldn't take much tweaking by Stearns to put this team on the glide path. The issue isn't who's available but what the asking price will be. If the Mets can get a player or two with team control without having to give up a top prospect, they should absolutely do it. But if the asking price means gutting their farm system, I would pass.

On the whole, the Mets have had a good first half. They seem to have weathered the worst of that storm in mid to late June. And they are still the front-runners in the National League East. Can they win it all? That depends on what Stearns does over the next couple of weeks.

Mets in a Free Fall

"Tough stretch, no sugarcoating it. I didn’t see this coming. I’m as frustrated as everybody else. We will get through this period. Our injured pitching will come back over the next few weeks. It is unlikely the team’s hitting with RISP will continue at this weak pace. Keep the faith!" -  Steven A. Cohen, owner of the New York Mets

With all due respect to Steve, this is not just a tough stretch. A tough stretch would be going 2-7. It's hard to fathom, but on June 12, the Mets were 45-24, twenty-one games over .500 and solidly in first place in the National League East. After yesterday's loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, they're now 48-37, and the only reason they're a game and a half out of first is because the Philadelphia Phillies haven't exactly taken off.

The Mets are 3-13 in their last 16 games. In colloquial terms that's called a free fall. And the worst part about this "stretch" is that they haven't been remotely competitive in most of their losses. In the three-game sweep against the Pirates, New York was outscored 30-4, their most lopsided series loss in their 64 years as a franchise. Given how many bad teams this organization has fielded over its history, that is a damnable stat.

They're not hitting; they're not pitching; in short, nothing is going right. Ironically, the only player who's exceeding expectations is Juan Soto. For the month of June, the $765 million dollar man hit 11 home runs, drove in 20 and batted .322 with an OPS of 1.196. Conversely, Francisco Lindor - the leadoff hitter - had 4 homers, 10 RBIs and batted .204 with an OPS of just .628.

It's one thing to keep the faith; Mets fans are experts at that. It's quite another to look in the mirror and know the truth. Despite its top-level talent, this team has more holes in it than a block of Swiss cheese. The starting rotation has been ravaged by injuries. Kodai Senga, Sean Maneae, Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning have all spent time on the IR. Canning is lost for the year after rupturing his left Achilles against the Atlanta Braves last week. 

The bullpen, which had been the best in baseball for most of the season, since June 13 has sprung more leaks than the Titanic and Lusitania combined. Over the last 16 games, their combined ERA is 6.59. Apart from Edwin Diaz, there isn't a single reliever Carlos Mendoza can trust in a tight spot.

And contrary to what Cohen alluded to in his tweet, the RISP issue is not a recent thing. It's plagued this team all season long. The Mets are batting just .217 with runners in scoring position. Only the Chicago White Sox at .208 are worse. To put that in perspective, the Phillies, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers - the current division leaders in the National League - are batting .262, .281 and .298 respectively with runners in scoring position. 

The bottom half of the lineup is as close to an automatic out as there is in baseball. After coming back from a hamstring injury, Mark Vientos looks lost at the plate. In his last three games, he's gone 1-13, and that one hit was a dribbler up the third base line. Ronnie Mauricio, aside from smacking three dingers, clearly cannot handle major-league pitching; and Francisco Alvarez had gotten so bad, the Mets were forced to send him back down to Syracuse to help him get his swing back. All the faith in the world can't overcome this level of ineptitude.

The fact is the Mets, even with the second-highest payroll in baseball, lack the depth to be a good team. David Stearns has done a credible job of piecing together a pitching staff that until recently was the envy of every GM in the majors. And now it is coming unglued. Take away Lindor, Soto, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, and most of the remaining hitters would have a hard time cracking the Oakland A's lineup. Even in a sport as individualistic as baseball, you still need more than a handful of players to win a championship.

If this hemorrhaging doesn't come to an end soon, the Flushing Faithful may have to endure yet another year of bitter disappointment.

But then that's become a rite of passage, hasn't it?

Mets Get a Wakeup Call

Going into their series against the Tampa Bay Rays at CitiField, the New York Mets were 16-4 in their last 20 games. They boasted the best team ERA and the second-best runs scored and against differential in Major League Baseball. With an overall record of 45-24, they were solidly in first place in the National League East, five and a half games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. It looked like they were ready to put the pedal to the metal.

And when they jumped out to a 5-1 lead over the Rays in game one, it certainly appeared as if they were doing that. The Mets scored two runs in the bottom of the 4th and three more in the bottom of the 5th to erase an early 1-0 Tampa Bay lead. Clay Holmes was in complete command, allowing one run and three hits through five. But Carlos Mendoza decided to pull him after just 79 pitches.

That's when the roof fell in on the Mets. The Rays lit up Paul Blackburn and Max Kranick like a Christmas tree in the top of the 6th, scoring six runs, two courtesy of a two-run homer from Danny Jansen, who entered the game with a .194 batting average. The Mets lost the game 7-5.

It didn't get any better for the Amazins the next two games. They lost 8-4 and 9-0 respectively; the latter coming on Father's Day with 42,804 disappointed fans in attendance. Imagine having that many people in your stadium and getting embarrassed like that. It was the first time this season that the Mets had been swept in a three-game series.

Perhaps this was just an anomaly; a couple of stinkers in an otherwise long schedule. After all, the Mets were due for a let down sooner or later. And it's not like the Rays are a bottom feeder; in fact, they're a pretty good team. Over their last twenty games, they were averaging five and a half runs per game. To put that in perspective, the Mets are averaging 4.55 runs per game for the season.

Or perhaps it was a wakeup call. For much of 2025, the Mets have relied on their pitching to carry them. And until this series, that formula was working. But the Rays exposed a flaw in that formula. They beat up on a bullpen that is starting to show signs of wear and tear not even half-way through the season. They also did a number on Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning, both of whom appear to be reverting to form.

After an impressive April in which he posted a 1.73 earned run average, Megill's ERA in May and June ballooned to 5.96 and 5.52 respectively. Over his five years as a big-league pitcher - all with the Mets - Megill is 26-26 with a 4.46 ERA. This is who he is, folks.

Coming into this season, Canning had a career ERA of 4.78 with the Los Angeles Angels. Take away the start he had against the Dodgers in LA earlier this month, and Canning has allowed 16 earned runs over his last 15 innings pitched. We have a word for that: it's called atrocious.

With Kodai Senga sustaining a hamstring injury in his last start, and Sean Manaea still out with an oblique injury, the starting rotation is going to be under duress for the foreseeable future. And aside from Edwin Diaz, Reed Garrett and Huascar Brazobán, the bullpen has been a huge question mark of late. A pitching staff that had been rock solid for most of the season now looks very vulnerable.

And the concerns don't end with the pitching. While Juan Soto has finally awoken from his early-season slumber, there are gaping holes in this lineup. Francisco Alvarez continues to struggle offensively. In 32 games, he's hitting .241 with only two home runs and 10 RBIs. His platoon mate Luis Torrens isn't any better. His slash line is .231 / 1 / 13. Ronny Mauricio, who was brought up from Syracuse when Mark Vientos went down with a hamstring injury last month, looks lost at the plate. Aside from a few games here and there, there's been virtually no production from the DH spot. And while Tyron Taylor is a human vacuum cleaner in center field, he's practically an automatic out at the plate. Put succinctly, the bottom four of the batting order isn't pulling its weight. Overall, the Mets are hitting just .218 with runners in scoring position this season; third lowest in the majors.

Put it all together and it spells trouble for a Mets team that had designs on going all the way this season. David Stearns has done an incredible job assembling this roster, but it's clear there's more work that needs to be done. The GM needs to add at least one more bat to this lineup and a couple of arms to this beleaguered bullpen. Mendoza can't keep playing Russian Roulette with his relievers hoping they don't implode the way Blackburn and Kranick did against the Rays.

Over the next ten days, the Amazins play the Atlanta Braves seven times and the Phillies thrice. After a rough stretch, Philly has won five in a row. As for Atlanta, while their record is a disappointing 31-39, they always play the Mets tough. The Flushing Faithful will never forget how the Braves came from seven games behind in August to win the division in 2022. Anybody who thinks this is a walk in the park doesn't know what they're talking about. If the Mets go 6-4, they'll be lucky.

The trading deadline is July 31. Plenty of time for Stearns to work his magic. 

Mets 2025 Season Preview

Let's face it: the moment the New York Mets signed Juan Soto to that $765 million contract, expectations for the 2025 season began to soar. With the re-signing of Pete Alonso, those expectations have now passed the stratosphere. Next stop, thermosphere. 

With Francisco Lindor leading off, the Amazins' have arguably the best batting order in franchise history. I say arguably because the 2006-08 Mets had Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and David Wright batting 3-5. Not too shabby, if I do say so myself. Regardless of which order you prefer, there's no denying that this team is better and deeper than the one that was two wins away from its first World Series appearance since 2015. 

Don't take my word for it. Just check it out for yourselves:

1. Francisco Lindor - SS
2. Juan Soto - RF
3. Pete Alonso - 1B
4. Mark Vientos - 3B
5. Brandon Nimmo - RF
6. Starling Marte - DH
7. Jeff McNeil - 2B
8. Franciso Alvares - C
9. Jose Siri - CF

Objectively speaking, only the Los Angeles Dodgers boast a better 1-9.

If there's one concern about this Mets team, it's the starting rotation. Both Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea will start the season on the disabled list and are not expected back until mid-May. That means that the bulk of the load will fall onto the shoulders of converted reliever Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill, David Peterson and Kodai Senga. Holmes had an outstanding spring training, boasting a 0.93 ERA, but Megill and Peterson are ostensibly .500 pitchers, while Senga is coming back from an injury that kept him out most of last season. In other words, Carlos Mendoza will have his work cut out for him managing this staff. 

The bullpen should be just fine with closer Edwin Diaz leading the way. And Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuna, Jesse Winker, Tyrone Taylor and Luis Torrens provide plenty of depth in the lineup. No one can say that Steve Cohen and David Stearns haven't done a great job here.

But while this may be the most talented Mets team in almost twenty years, they are hardly a lock to win their division. That's because while the Dodgers may own the NL West, the NL East is the deepest division in Major League Baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves are perfectly capable of emerging on top come October. That's why it's essential that this team get off to a good start. They can't afford a repeat of 2024 when they began the season 24-35.

That's why I have the Mets as the prohibitive favorites to win the NL East. Assuming that Soto and Lindor stay healthy and Diaz is lights out, I don't think there's a team east of the Rockies that can touch them.

And now for my predictions for each division, plus which teams will make the league championship and World Series.

National League East:

Mets
Phillies (WC)
Braves (WC)
Marlins
Nationals

National League Central:

Brewers
Cardinals
Cubs
Pirates
Reds

National League West:

Dodgers
Padres (WC)
Diamondbacks
Giants
Rockies

American League East:

Red Sox
Yankees (WC)
Blue Jays (WC)
Rays
Orioles

American League Central:

Guardians
Tigers
Royals
Twins
White Sox

American League West:

Mariners
Rangers (WC)
Astros
Angels
A's

WC = Wild Card

NLCS:

Mets over Dodgers 4-3

ALCS:

Red Sox over Mariners 4-2

World Series:

Mets over Red Sox 4-2

As with all my predictions, you should take them with a rather large grain of salt.

Cohen Bags Soto

That vibration you felt last night was George Steinbrenner not only turning over in his grave but punching the sides of the casket with both fists. In what can only be described as the greatest coup in the 63 year history of the franchise, the New York Mets not only landed the biggest prize in free agency, they literally stole him from their cross-town rival Yankees.

Juan Soto is a Met. The 26 year-old right fielder signed for an unprecedented $765 million over 15 years. The contract includes a $75 million signing bonus and an opt out after five years should Soto decide to leave Flushing. To put this in perspective, Tom Brady and LeBron James combined earned $761 million over their collective careers which spanned 45 years.

But the most amazing thing - no pun intended - about this was that the Mets offer was only $5 million more than the Yankees. The Yankees offered $760 million over 16 years; the Mets offered $765 million over 15 years. Late Sunday, it was widely believed that if the two teams were close, Soto would remain in the Bronx. Yours truly tweeted that for the Mets to land Soto they would have to be $30-$50 million above the Yankees offer.

So much for the mystique of playing for the Yankees. 

Yankees fans can cry in their beer and accuse Soto of being a mercenary all they want - and let's be honest, if not for Cohen's immense financial resources, this is just a pipe dream for the Mets - the fact is Soto is a clutch player who in seven seasons in the big leagues has hit 201 home runs and boasts a career .953 OPS. In the 2019 postseason, he hit .277 with 5 home runs and 14 runs batted in with an OPS of .927 for the Washington Nationals. Last postseason, he hit .327 with 4 HRs and 9 RBIs with an OPS of .1101 for the Yankees. The man is a winner, and if Brian Cashman had done a better job at the trade deadline last season, the Bronx Bombers might well have won their 28th World Series title instead of losing to the LA Dodgers in five. 

Face it, the Mets have a more balanced team with enough hitters to protect Soto in the lineup, especially if they re-sign Pete Alonso, which now seems likely given the season the Polar Bear had last year and the fact that he's gotten zero interest for his services from other teams. In fact, it would not surprise me at all to learn that Cohen reassured Soto that Alonso or someone comparable would be playing first base for the Mets in 2025.

If you're a Mets fan you have every right to crow today. Moments like this do not come along very often. The last time the Flushing Faithful were this giddy about a new player was 2005 when then GM Omar Minaya signed Carlos Beltran to a 7 year, $119 million contract. Though Beltran struggled his first year as a Met, he had three consecutive 100 plus RBI seasons after that.

But as wonderful as this moment may seem, there is still more work ahead for Cohen and David Stearns. With or without Alonso returning to the fold, the Mets will need to replace Luis Severino, who signed a three-year, $67 million deal with the Oakland A's. The right-hander had his best season since 2018, going 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA. Frankie Montas is a good addition, but hardly what you would call an ace. Clay Holmes led the Yankees in saves with 30 and would make a far better set-up man for Edwin Diaz than a starter, which is what the Mets envision him as. Like Severino, Sean Manaea opted out of his contract to become a free agent. Re-signing him should be a priority for Stearns. And let's not forget, Kodai Senga will be coming back from an injury that sidelined him most of last season. There is virtually no pathway to a World Series appearance for the Mets without a quality starting rotation. 

Re-signing Jesse Winker would give Carlos Mendoza another hitter who can platoon with Starling Marte in the DH spot. Jose Iglesias provided a spark last season and can play both 2nd and 3rd base. Hopefully he can be brought back at a reasonable price. And if Stearns can find a suitable suitor for Jeff McNeil, that would free up second base for Luisangel Acuña. The young phenom batted .308 and hit 3 homers in just 12 games last season.

Bottom line: After years of playing second fiddle and living in the shadow of the House That Ruth Built, the Mets, thanks to Steve Cohen, have staked their claim to the city. For the time being, the back pages of the daily newspapers are theirs. They have the mojo. What they do with it next is entirely up to them.

April can't come fast enough.

For the Mets, the Future Looks Very Bright

They started off 0-5; were eleven games under .500 going into June. And from that point on, the New York Mets had the best record in baseball. For a team that was supposed to be punting on the season, what this group of players did was nothing short of amazing. 

They made the playoffs literally on the last day of the season, then went on to beat the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card round and the Philadelphia Phillies in the divisional round, before finally losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. 

To come within two wins of going to their first World Series since 2015 sucks, I know, but the pain will go away. As Howie Rose said on the Mets radio broadcast, this team took its fans on an "incredible ride" this season, a ride that was improbable only a year ago. Not only is the glass half filled, the glass is literally under a running faucet. The Flushing faithful may finally be rewarded for their patience.

But before we get to 2025, let's first acknowledge the accomplishments of 2024.

Francisco Lindor: The team MVP delivered. Not only was he the most consistent player on the roster, his two-run homer in the top of the 9th inning in Atlanta was responsible for getting the Mets in the playoffs. His players-only meeting in late May likely saved the season.

Pete Alonso: The Polar Bear had a disappointing regular season, but came through with flying colors in the postseason. He hit two huge three-run homers: the first against the Brewers and the second against the Dodgers. Both times the Mets were facing elimination. No one knows whether Steve Cohen will re-sign him, but even if this was the last hurrah for Pete, at least he can say he went out with a bang.

The starting rotation: Even before Kodak Senga went down, this staff on paper more closely resembled Moe, Larry, Curly and Shemp than a legitimate rotation. And yet it wound up being the club's biggest strength. Sean Manaea and Luis Severino had career years and led the team in wins with 12 and 11 respectively. Jose Quintana and David Peterson - who had his best year as a Met - finished with 10 wins a piece. A healthy Senga could mean an extra 10-15 wins for the team next season. 

Mark Vientos: This burgeoning star, who began the season in Triple A, finished third on the team in home runs with 27, and had a team-leading .327 batting average and 14 RBIs in the playoffs. The Mets finally have their third baseman.

Luisangel Acuna: The center piece in the Max Scherzer trade last year, came up late in the season and took over at short stop when Lindor was out with a back injury. The 22 year-old contributed with 3 HRs and 6 RBIs with an OPS of .966. Just imagine him at 2nd base next year.

Carlos Mendoza: The rookie skipper probably won't win manager of the year, but there's no denying the impact he had in the dugout. His belief in his players when the season was on the brink kept the wheels from falling off. And while his handling of the bullpen at times was puzzling, he has the makings of a great manager. The Mets appear to have found their next Davey Johnson.

And now for 2025:

Center Field: Let's face it, while both Harrison Bader and Tyrone Taylor are excellent fielders, neither are terribly gifted offensively. David Stearns needs to find someone who can both hit and field for this position.

Juan Soto: File this under "Who do I have to kill?" Two years ago, I wrote the Mets needed to move heaven and earth to acquire the young star. Turns out, they didn't have the prospects to land him. Now that he's a free agent after the season, the only thing standing between him patrolling right field in Flushing or in the Bronx will be money. Fortunately for the Mets, Cohen has a boat load of it. If he elects not to re-sign Alonso, he can put the savings towards signing Sota. There's also the possibility that Cohen may want both players. Can you imagine what a lineup of Lindor, Vientos, Soto, Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Alvarez would look like?

The bullpen: Stearns addressed this weak spot for the Mets at the trade deadline, but he will need to do more during the offseason. The Dodgers pretty much had their way with them in the NLCS. Hopefully, Adam Ottavino has played his last game as a Met.

Francisco Alvarez: There's no denying the kid's talent, but he needs to improve his defense as a catcher and become more disciplined at the plate. Perhaps playing Winter ball will help him in both areas. He has the power to hit 25-30 home runs per season. 

JD Martinez and Jesse Winker: They proved to be an effective DH tandem for the Mets, but Martinez struggled over the last couple of months. Both are free agents and could be re-signed for a reasonable price, which will be necessary if Cohen goes after Sota.

To sum up, 2024 was a great year for the Mets. They thrilled their fans and stunned their detractors. 2025 promises to be even better. Gary Cohen drew comparisons to the 1984 team that won 90 games. Personally, I prefer 1985, myself. 

Either way, the future looks very bright for the men in orange and blue.