Mets in a Free Fall

"Tough stretch, no sugarcoating it. I didn’t see this coming. I’m as frustrated as everybody else. We will get through this period. Our injured pitching will come back over the next few weeks. It is unlikely the team’s hitting with RISP will continue at this weak pace. Keep the faith!" -  Steven A. Cohen, owner of the New York Mets

With all due respect to Steve, this is not just a tough stretch. A tough stretch would be going 2-7. It's hard to fathom, but on June 12, the Mets were 45-24, twenty-one games over .500 and solidly in first place in the National League East. After yesterday's loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, they're now 48-37, and the only reason they're a game and a half out of first is because the Philadelphia Phillies haven't exactly taken off.

The Mets are 3-13 in their last 16 games. In colloquial terms that's called a free fall. And the worst part about this "stretch" is that they haven't been remotely competitive in most of their losses. In the three-game sweep against the Pirates, New York was outscored 30-4, their most lopsided series loss in their 64 years as a franchise. Given how many bad teams this organization has fielded over its history, that is a damnable stat.

They're not hitting; they're not pitching; in short, nothing is going right. Ironically, the only player who's exceeding expectations is Juan Soto. For the month of June, the $765 million dollar man hit 11 home runs, drove in 20 and batted .322 with an OPS of 1.196. Conversely, Francisco Lindor - the leadoff hitter - had 4 homers, 10 RBIs and batted .204 with an OPS of just .628.

It's one thing to keep the faith; Mets fans are experts at that. It's quite another to look in the mirror and know the truth. Despite its top-level talent, this team has more holes in it than a block of Swiss cheese. The starting rotation has been ravaged by injuries. Kodai Senga, Sean Maneae, Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning have all spent time on the IR. Canning is lost for the year after rupturing his left Achilles against the Atlanta Braves last week. 

The bullpen, which had been the best in baseball for most of the season, since June 13 has sprung more leaks than the Titanic and Lusitania combined. Over the last 16 games, their combined ERA is 6.59. Apart from Edwin Diaz, there isn't a single reliever Carlos Mendoza can trust in a tight spot.

And contrary to what Cohen alluded to in his tweet, the RISP issue is not a recent thing. It's plagued this team all season long. The Mets are batting just .217 with runners in scoring position. Only the Chicago White Sox at .208 are worse. To put that in perspective, the Phillies, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers - the current division leaders in the National League - are batting .262, .281 and .298 respectively with runners in scoring position. 

The bottom half of the lineup is as close to an automatic out as there is in baseball. After coming back from a hamstring injury, Mark Vientos looks lost at the plate. In his last three games, he's gone 1-13, and that one hit was a dribbler up the third base line. Ronnie Mauricio, aside from smacking three dingers, clearly cannot handle major-league pitching; and Francisco Alvarez had gotten so bad, the Mets were forced to send him back down to Syracuse to help him get his swing back. All the faith in the world can't overcome this level of ineptitude.

The fact is the Mets, even with the second-highest payroll in baseball, lack the depth to be a good team. David Stearns has done a credible job of piecing together a pitching staff that until recently was the envy of every GM in the majors. And now it is coming unglued. Take away Lindor, Soto, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, and most of the remaining hitters would have a hard time cracking the Oakland A's lineup. Even in a sport as individualistic as baseball, you still need more than a handful of players to win a championship.

If this hemorrhaging doesn't come to an end soon, the Flushing Faithful may have to endure yet another year of bitter disappointment.

But then that's become a rite of passage, hasn't it?

Mendoza's Moment of Truth

The New York Mets were swept by the Atlanta Braves Thursday night. There's nothing unique about that statement. Three years ago, they went into Atlanta needing just one win to secure the tie-breaker for first place in the National League East. Instead they lost all three games. There's something about playing in this city that brings out the Marv Throneberry in the Amazins.

But the Mets did more than just get swept the Braves; they got swept by the Braves after getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays. 0-6 after a 16-4 stretch, which saw them build a five and a half game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. They are now tied for first with three games in Philadelphia. Don't be surprised if by Sunday night they're three games behind the Phillies. Remember when I said they'd be lucky to go 6-4 over this ten-game stretch? Well, 2-8 is looking more like a possibility.

Let's call it what it is: a slump, and a pretty bad one. In the six straight games the Mets have lost, four have not been remotely close. But the two that were close, were given away by the manager, who has chosen a particularly bad time of the year to make some rather bizarre decisions. 

Game one against the Rays: The Mets were ahead 5-1 going into the top of the sixth. Carlos Mendoza decided to pull Clay Holmes after throwing only 79 pitches, even though he was sailing along. The explanation was that the Mets were concerned about stretching Holmes too much given that this was his first year as a starter. Fair enough; you want him fresh for the stretch drive and playoffs. Totally understandable. Then why did Mendoza let him throw 104 pitches against the Braves five days later when it was painfully obvious he was struggling? What happened to managing his pitch count?

Game one against the Braves: The Mets were ahead 4-1 going into the bottom of the eight. David Peterson, fresh off a complete-game shutout against the Washington Nationals, was in complete command. Mendoza decided to leave him in, but for some reason didn't have anyone warming up in the bullpen just in case he got into trouble, which is what happened. Peterson walked the first batter he faced, at which point Reed Garrett started throwing in the bullpen. The next batter singled. The Braves had runners on first and second with no one out. Mendoza then went to Garrett who clearly was not yet ready to pitch. Atlanta ended up tying the game in that inning.

Same game against the Braves: Bottom of the 10th, tied score, free runner on second. Acuna is intentionally walked. On a wild pitch, for some reason Francisco Alvarez decided to throw behind the runner, thus allowing the eventual winning run to move to third base where he scored on a sacrifice fly. After the game, Mendoza, rather than just admit his catcher made a mistake, attempted to rationalize it. That is a no-no. A manager who cannot hold his players accountable is doing them a disservice. You don't have to throw your player under the bus to acknowledge what everyone who watched the game saw.

Look, last year Mendoza did a remarkable job not overreacting when the Mets got off to a horrific start. Indeed, you could say his calm demeanor gave the team the space it needed to turn the season around. And to be honest, no one ever accused him of being Joe McCarthy.

But Mendoza exhibits all the tell-tell signs of a manager who can't quite come to terms with the fact that he is no longer a coach but the field boss. Case in point, how he's handled the bullpen. Even last season when everything seemed to be going the Mets way, Mendoza would leave his starters in a little too long or pull them a little too soon. And his choice of reliever would sometimes be a head scratcher, like bringing in Adam Ottavino with a runner on first base. If you've ever watched Ottavino attempt to hold a runner on first, it's like watching a Three Stooges short if all three stooges were named Shemp. In the aforementioned game against the Rays, Mendoza, rather than bring in one of his best set-up men, opted for Paul Blackburn.

Okay, it's a long season, I get it. Managers, like players, have their share of bad games. But these are not isolated incidents; there's clearly a pattern here, or a lack thereof. Mendoza is not a bad manager, but his inconsistencies have been glaring. Alarm bells should be going off in the Mets front office. I don't care how long the season is, you can't give away games, especially in a division with two perennial 90 plus win teams like the Phillies and Braves. The Mets were very lucky to squeak into the postseason last year; there's no guarantee that, even with the addition of Juan Soto, they will make it back this year.

By no means is Carlos Mendoza the main culprit here. The Mets bats have gone cold and their pitching has gone south. No manager can overcome that kind of a slump. But he does have an obligation to put his team in the best possible position to win. To paraphrase an old saying, even if you can't get the horse to drink, you still have to lead him to the water.

As I wrote in my last piece, David Stearns will have to address the holes in this roster. But while he's doing that, it would behoove him to give his manager a pep talk before it gets too late.

Mets Get a Wakeup Call

Going into their series against the Tampa Bay Rays at CitiField, the New York Mets were 16-4 in their last 20 games. They boasted the best team ERA and the second-best runs scored and against differential in Major League Baseball. With an overall record of 45-24, they were solidly in first place in the National League East, five and a half games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. It looked like they were ready to put the pedal to the metal.

And when they jumped out to a 5-1 lead over the Rays in game one, it certainly appeared as if they were doing that. The Mets scored two runs in the bottom of the 4th and three more in the bottom of the 5th to erase an early 1-0 Tampa Bay lead. Clay Holmes was in complete command, allowing one run and three hits through five. But Carlos Mendoza decided to pull him after just 79 pitches.

That's when the roof fell in on the Mets. The Rays lit up Paul Blackburn and Max Kranick like a Christmas tree in the top of the 6th, scoring six runs, two courtesy of a two-run homer from Danny Jansen, who entered the game with a .194 batting average. The Mets lost the game 7-5.

It didn't get any better for the Amazins the next two games. They lost 8-4 and 9-0 respectively; the latter coming on Father's Day with 42,804 disappointed fans in attendance. Imagine having that many people in your stadium and getting embarrassed like that. It was the first time this season that the Mets had been swept in a three-game series.

Perhaps this was just an anomaly; a couple of stinkers in an otherwise long schedule. After all, the Mets were due for a let down sooner or later. And it's not like the Rays are a bottom feeder; in fact, they're a pretty good team. Over their last twenty games, they were averaging five and a half runs per game. To put that in perspective, the Mets are averaging 4.55 runs per game for the season.

Or perhaps it was a wakeup call. For much of 2025, the Mets have relied on their pitching to carry them. And until this series, that formula was working. But the Rays exposed a flaw in that formula. They beat up on a bullpen that is starting to show signs of wear and tear not even half-way through the season. They also did a number on Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning, both of whom appear to be reverting to form.

After an impressive April in which he posted a 1.73 earned run average, Megill's ERA in May and June ballooned to 5.96 and 5.52 respectively. Over his five years as a big-league pitcher - all with the Mets - Megill is 26-26 with a 4.46 ERA. This is who he is, folks.

Coming into this season, Canning had a career ERA of 4.78 with the Los Angeles Angels. Take away the start he had against the Dodgers in LA earlier this month, and Canning has allowed 16 earned runs over his last 15 innings pitched. We have a word for that: it's called atrocious.

With Kodai Senga sustaining a hamstring injury in his last start, and Sean Manaea still out with an oblique injury, the starting rotation is going to be under duress for the foreseeable future. And aside from Edwin Diaz, Reed Garrett and Huascar Brazobán, the bullpen has been a huge question mark of late. A pitching staff that had been rock solid for most of the season now looks very vulnerable.

And the concerns don't end with the pitching. While Juan Soto has finally awoken from his early-season slumber, there are gaping holes in this lineup. Francisco Alvarez continues to struggle offensively. In 32 games, he's hitting .241 with only two home runs and 10 RBIs. His platoon mate Luis Torrens isn't any better. His slash line is .231 / 1 / 13. Ronny Mauricio, who was brought up from Syracuse when Mark Vientos went down with a hamstring injury last month, looks lost at the plate. Aside from a few games here and there, there's been virtually no production from the DH spot. And while Tyron Taylor is a human vacuum cleaner in center field, he's practically an automatic out at the plate. Put succinctly, the bottom four of the batting order isn't pulling its weight. Overall, the Mets are hitting just .218 with runners in scoring position this season; third lowest in the majors.

Put it all together and it spells trouble for a Mets team that had designs on going all the way this season. David Stearns has done an incredible job assembling this roster, but it's clear there's more work that needs to be done. The GM needs to add at least one more bat to this lineup and a couple of arms to this beleaguered bullpen. Mendoza can't keep playing Russian Roulette with his relievers hoping they don't implode the way Blackburn and Kranick did against the Rays.

Over the next ten days, the Amazins play the Atlanta Braves seven times and the Phillies thrice. After a rough stretch, Philly has won five in a row. As for Atlanta, while their record is a disappointing 31-39, they always play the Mets tough. The Flushing Faithful will never forget how the Braves came from seven games behind in August to win the division in 2022. Anybody who thinks this is a walk in the park doesn't know what they're talking about. If the Mets go 6-4, they'll be lucky.

The trading deadline is July 31. Plenty of time for Stearns to work his magic. 

Mets 2025 Season Preview

Let's face it: the moment the New York Mets signed Juan Soto to that $765 million contract, expectations for the 2025 season began to soar. With the re-signing of Pete Alonso, those expectations have now passed the stratosphere. Next stop, thermosphere. 

With Francisco Lindor leading off, the Amazins' have arguably the best batting order in franchise history. I say arguably because the 2006-08 Mets had Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and David Wright batting 3-5. Not too shabby, if I do say so myself. Regardless of which order you prefer, there's no denying that this team is better and deeper than the one that was two wins away from its first World Series appearance since 2015. 

Don't take my word for it. Just check it out for yourselves:

1. Francisco Lindor - SS
2. Juan Soto - RF
3. Pete Alonso - 1B
4. Mark Vientos - 3B
5. Brandon Nimmo - RF
6. Starling Marte - DH
7. Jeff McNeil - 2B
8. Franciso Alvares - C
9. Jose Siri - CF

Objectively speaking, only the Los Angeles Dodgers boast a better 1-9.

If there's one concern about this Mets team, it's the starting rotation. Both Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea will start the season on the disabled list and are not expected back until mid-May. That means that the bulk of the load will fall onto the shoulders of converted reliever Clay Holmes, Tylor Megill, David Peterson and Kodai Senga. Holmes had an outstanding spring training, boasting a 0.93 ERA, but Megill and Peterson are ostensibly .500 pitchers, while Senga is coming back from an injury that kept him out most of last season. In other words, Carlos Mendoza will have his work cut out for him managing this staff. 

The bullpen should be just fine with closer Edwin Diaz leading the way. And Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuna, Jesse Winker, Tyrone Taylor and Luis Torrens provide plenty of depth in the lineup. No one can say that Steve Cohen and David Stearns haven't done a great job here.

But while this may be the most talented Mets team in almost twenty years, they are hardly a lock to win their division. That's because while the Dodgers may own the NL West, the NL East is the deepest division in Major League Baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves are perfectly capable of emerging on top come October. That's why it's essential that this team get off to a good start. They can't afford a repeat of 2024 when they began the season 24-35.

That's why I have the Mets as the prohibitive favorites to win the NL East. Assuming that Soto and Lindor stay healthy and Diaz is lights out, I don't think there's a team east of the Rockies that can touch them.

And now for my predictions for each division, plus which teams will make the league championship and World Series.

National League East:

Mets
Phillies (WC)
Braves (WC)
Marlins
Nationals

National League Central:

Brewers
Cardinals
Cubs
Pirates
Reds

National League West:

Dodgers
Padres (WC)
Diamondbacks
Giants
Rockies

American League East:

Red Sox
Yankees (WC)
Blue Jays (WC)
Rays
Orioles

American League Central:

Guardians
Tigers
Royals
Twins
White Sox

American League West:

Mariners
Rangers (WC)
Astros
Angels
A's

WC = Wild Card

NLCS:

Mets over Dodgers 4-3

ALCS:

Red Sox over Mariners 4-2

World Series:

Mets over Red Sox 4-2

As with all my predictions, you should take them with a rather large grain of salt.

Cohen Bags Soto

That vibration you felt last night was George Steinbrenner not only turning over in his grave but punching the sides of the casket with both fists. In what can only be described as the greatest coup in the 63 year history of the franchise, the New York Mets not only landed the biggest prize in free agency, they literally stole him from their cross-town rival Yankees.

Juan Soto is a Met. The 26 year-old right fielder signed for an unprecedented $765 million over 15 years. The contract includes a $75 million signing bonus and an opt out after five years should Soto decide to leave Flushing. To put this in perspective, Tom Brady and LeBron James combined earned $761 million over their collective careers which spanned 45 years.

But the most amazing thing - no pun intended - about this was that the Mets offer was only $5 million more than the Yankees. The Yankees offered $760 million over 16 years; the Mets offered $765 million over 15 years. Late Sunday, it was widely believed that if the two teams were close, Soto would remain in the Bronx. Yours truly tweeted that for the Mets to land Soto they would have to be $30-$50 million above the Yankees offer.

So much for the mystique of playing for the Yankees. 

Yankees fans can cry in their beer and accuse Soto of being a mercenary all they want - and let's be honest, if not for Cohen's immense financial resources, this is just a pipe dream for the Mets - the fact is Soto is a clutch player who in seven seasons in the big leagues has hit 201 home runs and boasts a career .953 OPS. In the 2019 postseason, he hit .277 with 5 home runs and 14 runs batted in with an OPS of .927 for the Washington Nationals. Last postseason, he hit .327 with 4 HRs and 9 RBIs with an OPS of .1101 for the Yankees. The man is a winner, and if Brian Cashman had done a better job at the trade deadline last season, the Bronx Bombers might well have won their 28th World Series title instead of losing to the LA Dodgers in five. 

Face it, the Mets have a more balanced team with enough hitters to protect Soto in the lineup, especially if they re-sign Pete Alonso, which now seems likely given the season the Polar Bear had last year and the fact that he's gotten zero interest for his services from other teams. In fact, it would not surprise me at all to learn that Cohen reassured Soto that Alonso or someone comparable would be playing first base for the Mets in 2025.

If you're a Mets fan you have every right to crow today. Moments like this do not come along very often. The last time the Flushing Faithful were this giddy about a new player was 2005 when then GM Omar Minaya signed Carlos Beltran to a 7 year, $119 million contract. Though Beltran struggled his first year as a Met, he had three consecutive 100 plus RBI seasons after that.

But as wonderful as this moment may seem, there is still more work ahead for Cohen and David Stearns. With or without Alonso returning to the fold, the Mets will need to replace Luis Severino, who signed a three-year, $67 million deal with the Oakland A's. The right-hander had his best season since 2018, going 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA. Frankie Montas is a good addition, but hardly what you would call an ace. Clay Holmes led the Yankees in saves with 30 and would make a far better set-up man for Edwin Diaz than a starter, which is what the Mets envision him as. Like Severino, Sean Manaea opted out of his contract to become a free agent. Re-signing him should be a priority for Stearns. And let's not forget, Kodai Senga will be coming back from an injury that sidelined him most of last season. There is virtually no pathway to a World Series appearance for the Mets without a quality starting rotation. 

Re-signing Jesse Winker would give Carlos Mendoza another hitter who can platoon with Starling Marte in the DH spot. Jose Iglesias provided a spark last season and can play both 2nd and 3rd base. Hopefully he can be brought back at a reasonable price. And if Stearns can find a suitable suitor for Jeff McNeil, that would free up second base for Luisangel Acuña. The young phenom batted .308 and hit 3 homers in just 12 games last season.

Bottom line: After years of playing second fiddle and living in the shadow of the House That Ruth Built, the Mets, thanks to Steve Cohen, have staked their claim to the city. For the time being, the back pages of the daily newspapers are theirs. They have the mojo. What they do with it next is entirely up to them.

April can't come fast enough.

Is Carlos Mendoza the Next Willie Randolph or Davey Johnson?

In the end, and for reasons we will likely never fully know, Craig Counsell, the man everyone assumed would be the next manager of the New York Mets, opted not to take the job and instead signed with the Chicago Cubs. Was it the money? Perhaps. Or maybe it was something else. What we do know is that Counsell never gave the Mets a chance to match the Cubs offer. So with Counsell gone, Steve Cohen and David Stearns chose Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza as their next skipper.

Almost immediately, the "Who the fuck is Carlos Mendoza?" contingent chimed in with their nickel's worth of "expertise," with several radio talk-show hosts proclaiming they were done with the Mets. One of those talk-show hosts, by the way, was the shit head who hung up on Carl Banks the other week, so take that with a rather large grain of salt.

As far as Mendoza is concerned, he is pretty much an unknown commodity. According to Wikipedia - yes, I had to go there - he spent 13 seasons in the minor leagues. In 2011, he was hired by the Yankees to manage their Gulf Coast League team, and in 2017, he was promoted to the big club where he's been the bench coach since 2020. Apart from a rave review he got from Aaron Boone, it's anybody's guess how he will perform in the Mets dugout.

In fact, Mendoza's hiring is eerily familiar to the Willie Randolph hiring in October of 2004. Like Mendoza, Randolph was a Yankees bench coach with no big-league managerial experience. In fact, the only difference between both men is that Randolph had a distinguished career as an all-star second baseman with the Bronx Bombers that included two World Series rings: 1977 and 1978.

While the Mets won the National League East in 2006 with Randolph at the helm, they lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS; and then in '07, suffered one of the worst late-season collapses in team history, finishing 5-12 down the stretch and blowing a seven game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. Randolph's lack of experience was cited as the reason for both failures. He would eventually be fired the following season after the Mets got off to a slow start.

The question for the Mets right now is are they repeating the same mistake they made 19 years ago by going with someone with no big-league managerial experience? The hope is that Mendoza won't be the next Willie Randolph, but the fact is nobody can know for sure. Davey Johnson, if you recall, had no big-league managerial experience either when he was chosen by Frank Cashen to manage the Mets in 1984, and we all know how that turned out. Two division titles and a World Series championship later, the hire is generally considered to be among the best in franchise history.

We also have to keep in mind that Stearns was hired by Cohen because of his expertise in building an organization. Even though the Milwaukee Brewers never won the World Series during his tenure there, he was nonetheless responsible for their ascendancy into playoff contenders. We need to give him the benefit of the doubt here regarding Mendoza, inasmuch as we don't know how the interview went. For all we know, Mendoza hit it out of the park. Take it from a former sales manager who was responsible for hiring and firing, you can never underestimate the importance of a face to face meeting. 

Bottom line, the Mets have their manager in place for the 2024 season. Now they have to fill in their roster. That task will fall exclusively to Stearns now that Billy Eppler is no longer the GM.

But that's another story altogether.