Mendoza's Moment of Truth

The New York Mets were swept by the Atlanta Braves Thursday night. There's nothing unique about that statement. Three years ago, they went into Atlanta needing just one win to secure the tie-breaker for first place in the National League East. Instead they lost all three games. There's something about playing in this city that brings out the Marv Throneberry in the Amazins.

But the Mets did more than just get swept the Braves; they got swept by the Braves after getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays. 0-6 after a 16-4 stretch, which saw them build a five and a half game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. They are now tied for first with three games in Philadelphia. Don't be surprised if by Sunday night they're three games behind the Phillies. Remember when I said they'd be lucky to go 6-4 over this ten-game stretch? Well, 2-8 is looking more like a possibility.

Let's call it what it is: a slump, and a pretty bad one. In the six straight games the Mets have lost, four have not been remotely close. But the two that were close, were given away by the manager, who has chosen a particularly bad time of the year to make some rather bizarre decisions. 

Game one against the Rays: The Mets were ahead 5-1 going into the top of the sixth. Carlos Mendoza decided to pull Clay Holmes after throwing only 79 pitches, even though he was sailing along. The explanation was that the Mets were concerned about stretching Holmes too much given that this was his first year as a starter. Fair enough; you want him fresh for the stretch drive and playoffs. Totally understandable. Then why did Mendoza let him throw 104 pitches against the Braves five days later when it was painfully obvious he was struggling? What happened to managing his pitch count?

Game one against the Braves: The Mets were ahead 4-1 going into the bottom of the eight. David Peterson, fresh off a complete-game shutout against the Washington Nationals, was in complete command. Mendoza decided to leave him in, but for some reason didn't have anyone warming up in the bullpen just in case he got into trouble, which is what happened. Peterson walked the first batter he faced, at which point Reed Garrett started throwing in the bullpen. The next batter singled. The Braves had runners on first and second with no one out. Mendoza then went to Garrett who clearly was not yet ready to pitch. Atlanta ended up tying the game in that inning.

Same game against the Braves: Bottom of the 10th, tied score, free runner on second. Acuna is intentionally walked. On a wild pitch, for some reason Francisco Alvarez decided to throw behind the runner, thus allowing the eventual winning run to move to third base where he scored on a sacrifice fly. After the game, Mendoza, rather than just admit his catcher made a mistake, attempted to rationalize it. That is a no-no. A manager who cannot hold his players accountable is doing them a disservice. You don't have to throw your player under the bus to acknowledge what everyone who watched the game saw.

Look, last year Mendoza did a remarkable job not overreacting when the Mets got off to a horrific start. Indeed, you could say his calm demeanor gave the team the space it needed to turn the season around. And to be honest, no one ever accused him of being Joe McCarthy.

But Mendoza exhibits all the tell-tell signs of a manager who can't quite come to terms with the fact that he is no longer a coach but the field boss. Case in point, how he's handled the bullpen. Even last season when everything seemed to be going the Mets way, Mendoza would leave his starters in a little too long or pull them a little too soon. And his choice of reliever would sometimes be a head scratcher, like bringing in Adam Ottavino with a runner on first base. If you've ever watched Ottavino attempt to hold a runner on first, it's like watching a Three Stooges short if all three stooges were named Shemp. In the aforementioned game against the Rays, Mendoza, rather than bring in one of his best set-up men, opted for Paul Blackburn.

Okay, it's a long season, I get it. Managers, like players, have their share of bad games. But these are not isolated incidents; there's clearly a pattern here, or a lack thereof. Mendoza is not a bad manager, but his inconsistencies have been glaring. Alarm bells should be going off in the Mets front office. I don't care how long the season is, you can't give away games, especially in a division with two perennial 90 plus win teams like the Phillies and Braves. The Mets were very lucky to squeak into the postseason last year; there's no guarantee that, even with the addition of Juan Soto, they will make it back this year.

By no means is Carlos Mendoza the main culprit here. The Mets bats have gone cold and their pitching has gone south. No manager can overcome that kind of a slump. But he does have an obligation to put his team in the best possible position to win. To paraphrase an old saying, even if you can't get the horse to drink, you still have to lead him to the water.

As I wrote in my last piece, David Stearns will have to address the holes in this roster. But while he's doing that, it would behoove him to give his manager a pep talk before it gets too late.

For the Mets It's Déjà Vu All Over Again

The New York Mets embark on what will be the most crucial part of their season over the next ten games, which coincidentally happens to be their last ten games of the regular season when they begin a four-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies at CifiField Thursday night. Whether there's a postseason, however, remains to be seen.

The Mets - 84-68 - are tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second Wild Card in the National League, two games ahead of the Atlanta Braves. They have control of their own destiny. If that sounds familiar, it should. Two years ago, almost to the day in fact, the Mets found themselves in the exact same position. They were two games up on the Braves for first place in the NL East, needing to win just one of three games in Atlanta to wrap up the division. But the Braves swept the Amazins and they were forced to settle for the first Wild Card spot. They then went on to lose to the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card round.

The experience left a bitter taste in their mouths. They knew to a man they were the better team, but the Braves were better when it counted: down the stretch; the Mets folded like a bad poker hand.

Well, here we are two years later. Once again the Mets have their fate in their own hands. Four games against the Phillies, three against the Braves, and three against the Milwaukee Brewers. For what it's worth, this is a much better team than the one that collapsed late in the 2022 season. Both their starting pitching and bullpen (yes, THIS bullpen) are deep, and they are among the best scoring teams in the league. Since June 1, the Mets are 60-35, the best record in the majors. The Houston Astros are next at 57-37. If this team were to make it into the postseason, they would be very difficult to beat.

But that's the catch: they have to get in first. It won't be easy. The Phillies are battling the Los Angeles Dodgers for the overall best record in the National League, which would earn them a bye in the first round. As for the Braves, well, let's just say that the Mets don't have a good track record against them. The last time they bested them in a meaningful series was 1969. They will be battling a lot of past demons when they play them next week in Atlanta.

Regardless of how these next ten games go, David Stearns deserves a lot of credit for not panicking at the trade deadline. The moves he did make made sense and helped solidify the team. By not mortgaging the future, like his predecessor did, he held onto his young players. One of them, Luisangel Acuna, was called up to replace the injured Francisco Lindor. To say he's hit the ground running would be an understatement. He's hitting .467 with 2 HRS, 4RBIs and an OPS of 1.400 in just five games. 

Acuna was the gem the Mets got in the Max Scherzer deal. While Scherzer has been injured most of this season, Acuna had an impressive season at Triple A Syracuse. This kid is going to be a star. Can you see him playing alongside Lindor in the Mets infield? How many owners do you suppose would be willing to eat $88 million just to restock their prospect pool? Steve Cohen also deserves a lot of credit for this turnaround.

For now, though, the Mets future is now. Luis Severino goes up against Taijuan Walker of the Phillies. Severino has been the Mets most consistent pitcher all season long, while Walker - an ex-Met - has struggled. It is vital the Amazins get off to a good start against this Phillies team. A week ago, they dropped two of three in Philadelphia. They would like to exact some payback.

They can start tonight. 

Mets Go Out with a Whimper

Some postmortems take longer than others to write. This one took five days. The New York Mets season came to a crashing end Sunday night at the hands of the San Diego Padres at CitiField. They didn't just lose the Wild Card round, they were humbled.

The team with the highest payroll in major league baseball was held to exactly one hit and one walk en route to a 6-0 game three drubbing. And while their bats were stymied, their supposed vaunted starting pitching was lit up like a pinball machine in two of the three games. Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt surrendered a combined 10 earned runs in 8 and 2/3 innings pitched. Scherzer's performance was particularly brutal, given the $43 million annual salary the Mets are paying him. All seven of the earned runs he allowed came via the long ball. He looked like he was throwing batting practice out there.

There's no way to sugar coat what happened. This was an epic fail, pure and simple. Yes, the Mets won 101 games, but their flaws were apparent pretty much all season long. You would've had to be blind not to see them. Inconsistent hitting and a bullpen that, sans Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino, was unreliable most nights. Why else do you suppose Buck Showalter brought in Diaz in the 7th inning of game two with a one-run lead? He literally had no one else he could count on.

As I wrote earlier, this is all on Billy Eppler. The GM knew there were holes in both the lineup and bullpen and yet, at the trade deadline, he acquired players who did little more than patch them up. Daniel Vogelbach was the cream of the crop, batting .255 with 6 home runs and 25 RBIs over 55 games, but was virtually useless against lefties. Tyler Naquin was supposed to provide Showlater with badly needed outfield depth, but batted .203 with 4 homers and 13 RBIs in 49 games. Not to be outdone, Darin Ruf literally brought up the rear, batting a putrid .152 with zero HRs and only 7 RBIs in 28 games. For the beleaguered bullpen, Eppler's sole acquisition, Mychal Givens, never got untracked. In 19 appearances, he gave up 24 hits, 6 walks and had an ERA of 4.79. 

So, where does Eppler go from here?

Well, for starters, he has some decisions to make about what to do with several of his own free agents. Even though the Mets had the highest payroll in baseball, it will undoubtedly need go up. How much will depend on who they keep and who they let walk. Let's take them in order.

Jacob deGrom: The two-time Cy-Young award winner missed the second half of last season and the first half of this one. He made $33.5 million in 2022 and was set to make $30.5 in 2023, but elected to opt out of his contract. How high Steve Cohen will go to retain the most popular pitcher the franchise has had since Tom Seaver remains to be seen.

Edwin Diaz: The best closer in baseball made $10.2 million this season and will command a very hefty pay raise over the winter. Cohen must not let him skip town, even if it means overpaying.

Brandon Nimmo: The center fielder was a reliable leadoff hitter this season and has outstanding range. He made only $7 million so Eppler should be able to re-sign him for a manageable number.

Then there are the players who are arbitration eligible.

Pete Alonso: The popular first baseman tied Aaron Judge for the most RBIs in the majors at 131 and made a paltry $7.4 million. Figure around $15 million for 2023 gets it done.

Jeff McNeil: The National League batting champ made only $3 million and, like Alonso, will see his salary double.

Now for the players under contract who are owed increases.

Chris Bassitt: Overall, Bassitt had a good year, but wilted in his last two starts against the Braves and Padres respectively. He made $8.65 million this season and is due to make $19 million in 2023. Eppler could include him in a package for Shohei Ohtani over the winter.

Starling Marte: At $14.5 million, Marte was one of the better signings the Mets have made in quite some time. Even at the $19.5 million he is due to make next season, he is still a good value. I doubt Eppler will move him.

Carlos Carrasco: At best, Carrasco is a fourth starter whose salary will increase from $12 million to $14 million. There are cheaper options out there that Eppler can and must explore over the offseason.

If the Mets can work out a deal for Ohtani, it would behoove them to do so. Ohtani kills two birds with one stone. He gives the Mets a solid power hitter who could smack 35 plus home runs per season and who makes the lineup deeper and less vulnerable to the types of ups and downs that plagued it throughout the season. As solid a season as Alonso had, there were too many times he struggled at the plate. Having Ohtani batting fifth behind him would force pitchers to throw him more strikes.

As a pitcher, Ohtani went 15-9 with 219 strikeouts in 166 innings pitched and a 2.33 ERA on a really bad Angels team. Imagine what he could do on a winning team. He just signed a $30 million contract extension for 2023, so if the Mets do acquire him, they would have to move out some contracts. That's why I think it's very possible that deGrom has pitched his last game as a Met. The money he would command could easily go to Ohtani.

But if there's one thing Eppler must do, it's fix the bullpen. A team with championship aspirations cannot let the likes of Tyler Megill (5.13), Trevor May (5.04) and Joley Rodriguez (4.47) take the mound next season. Showalter desperately needs relievers he can rely on. Just look at the job the Cleveland Guardians pen has done. In four postseason games, it hasn't allowed an earned run.

Bottom line, the way the Mets went out with a whimper will stick in the craw of the fans, as it should. If Cohen is serious about his commitment to make this team a legitimate contender, he needs to prove it. It is simply unacceptable for this franchise to have only two World Series championships in 60 years.

Buck is Playing with Fire

In theory, the strategy makes sense. You start your best pitcher against the Padres in game one of the wildcard round. Then, assuming he wins, you start your third best pitcher in the clincher. And if everything goes according to plan, your second best pitcher is available to start game one of the NLDS against the Dodgers.

Sounds perfect. What good possibly go wrong?

Well, for starters, let's say Max Scherzer out duels Yu Darvish. So far, so good. Buck Showalter hands the ball to Christ Bassitt in game two, who pitches well, but not well enough to win. Now, Buck has to rely on Jacob deGrom in game three to save the season, and quite possibly his job. 

Regardless of what happens, the grand strategy is out the window. If Jake throws a gem, Buck has to decide whether to go with Carlos Carrasco or Taijuan Walker as his game one starter in the NLDS. Either way, the Dodgers go up 1-0. But if Jakes loses, Buck will spend the entire off season trying to justify why he elected not to go with his two best pitchers in the first playoff series this franchise has appeared in since 2015.

I cannot emphasize enough just how critical it is for this team, after blowing the division to the Braves in the final days of the season, to win at least one playoff series. To go out in the first round is simply a non-starter. If the Mets go on and lose to the Dodgers, the fans will be disappointed, but they'll live. After all, the Dodgers are the best team in the majors. They're suppose to win. But if the Mets lose to a team like the Padres, the fans will be outraged, and rightfully so.

Look, the goal of every professional sports team is to win championships, I get it. And owner Steve Cohen has made it abundantly clear he's willing to spend whatever it takes to accomplish that goal. He's already invested $279 million in salaries this year and will likely spend another $20 to $30 million next year. That is music to the ears of a fanbase that for far too long has seen its team play second fiddle to the Yankees.

But, let's be honest for a moment. As good as the Mets have been this season - and winning 101 games is not too shabby - it does have flaws; and some of those flaws were revealed in Atlanta last weekend. Only an incurable optimist would believe this team is capable of winning a World Series.

But the Padres are not the Braves. The Mets should beat them. They're the better team. While the pitching staffs may be comparable, the Mets have a deeper lineup and Edwin Diaz in their bullpen. If they lose because Buck was caught looking too far ahead, it will be the worst decision by a Mets manager since Davey Johnson decided to leave Doc Golden in to face Mike Scioscia in the top of the 9th in game four of 1988 NLCS. We all know what happened. Scioscia's two-run homer tied the score, and the Dodgers went on to win the game, the pennant and the World Series.

Buck Showalter is playing with fire, and if he doesn't knock it off, the whole season could go up in smoke.

So Much for Control

No, the season did not come to an end Sunday night in Atlanta. The Mets clinched the playoffs two weeks ago in Milwaukee, so there will be at least two postseason games at CitiField after the conclusion of the regular season Wednesday night against the Nationals.

What did come to an end Sunday night is the illusion that this resilient team, which had turned so many heads this season, is a genuine threat to win the World Series.

Let there be no ambiguity about what happened here. The Mets rolled out their top three starters and the Braves treated them like they were rookie league pitchers. Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt collectively surrendered 17 hits and 11 earned runs in 14 and a third innings pitched for a combined 6.91 ERA. For a team built on starting pitching, that's about as ugly as it gets.

And while Seaver, Koosman and Matlock were getting their bells rung by the likes of Dansby Swanson and Matt Olson - both of whom smacked homers in each of the three games - Pete Alonzo and Francisco Lindor were held in check. Neither had so much as a single RBI the entire series.

There are sweeps and then there are beat downs. This was a beat down. The only matchup the Mets won was when Edwin Diaz took the mound in the bottom of the 8th of the third game. He struck one of the two hitters he faced. A small consolation prize in an otherwise abysmal weekend.

So now it's come down to this. If the Mets take two out of three from the Nats they will secure their fourth 100 win season in franchise history. Then they host the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card round starting Friday. 

But before you go reserving your NLDS tickets, it's worth noting that, apart from having home field, there is little evidence that this team is capable of winning a best of three series. Yes, on paper, they should be favorites, but then if paper meant anything at all, the Mets wouldn't have gone a collective 6-8 against the Nats, Marlins, Cubs and A's in September (0-3 against the Cubs). Indeed, the only reason they had a winning record at all last month was because they took six out of seven against the Pirates. And to think, September's schedule was suppose to be a breeze.

Clearly, the loss of Starling Marte took its toll. An already top heavy lineup was made even more so after the right fielder fractured a finger on his right hand September 6. For the last four weeks, Buck Showalter has had to shuffle his hitters around, looking for the right combination, with mixed results. And with Marte doubtful for the playoffs, Buck will have his hands full. The Padres pitching staff may not be able to exploit the advantage; I can assure you the Dodgers staff will.

To some extent, Atlanta might've done the Mets a favor by sweeping them. With the division now gone, Buck is free to set up his pitching rotation the way he wants. deGrom, Scherzer and Bassitt will have a full seven days rest and should be ready to go. The Padres hitters are good but they're not nearly as potent as the Braves. This is the one matchup that actually favors the Mets.

The lion's share of blame for what went wrong must go to Billy Eppler. His trade deadline acquisitions just haven't panned out. Daniel Vogelbach has been ok against righties but dreadful against lefties; Darin Ruff, who was suppose to platoon with Vogelbach, has been an unmitigated disaster; and Tyler Naquin, who was suppose to provide much needed depth in the outfield, of late, has been an automatic out. Had Eppler acquired a legit bat to hit behind Alonso, there's no telling what could've been.

But the lineup wasn't the only area Eppler dropped the ball on. The bullpen, aside from Adam Ottavino and Diaz, has been a sore spot all season long, and yet while the Braves plucked Raisel Iglesias from the Angels, the Mets overpaid to land Mychal Givens. Going into Sunday night's game, Iglesias had a 0.36 ERA as a Brave while Givens had a 5.03 ERA as a Met.

Regardless of what happens over the weekend, Eppler must shore up the bullpen and add a bat. He also has to re-sign Diaz and figure out whether or not to keep deGrom. Both are free agents after the season and will cost an arm and a leg to retain. Steve Cohen will have to pony up some big bucks this winter.

Apologists might argue that going into the 2022 season, most people didn't expect the Mets to be a playoff team, much less a division winner. That may be so, but after leading the Braves most of the year, it will be a bitter pill to swallow if the Braves go on to repeat as champions, especially knowing how well they played against them earlier in the season.

Mets fans are used to being disappointed. This disappointment will sting for a long time.

Mets Have Control of Their Own Destiny

Wednesday night, the New York Mets avoided yet another humiliating loss and pulled out an extra-inning victory over the lowly Miami Marlins at CitiField, thanks to a five-RBI performance by Eduardo Escobar. Coupled with the Washington Nationals extra-inning win over the Atlanta Braves, the Amazins now have a one-game lead in the National League East with six games to go.

Heading into this weekend's three-game series against the Braves in Atlanta, the Mets are in the driver's seat. If they sweep, they clinch the division; if they take two out of three, their magic number would be one; and even if the Braves take two out of three, the Mets, by virtue of a tie-breaker, could still win the division if they sweep the Nationals next week. The only possible way the Mets would lose control of their own destiny is if they themselves got swept. In that event, they would have to sweep the Nats and hope the Marlins do the same to the Braves. Not very likely.

We've been here before. Only a week earlier, the Mets were up two and a half games over the Braves after a 9-2 shellacking of the Oakland A's. All they had to do was sweep that series and take both games against the Marlins and they could've gone into this series needing to win only one game to clinch the division. Then again, if the Mets had swept the Cubs two weeks ago, instead of getting swept, this race would be over by now and Buck Showalter would be setting up his starting rotation for the upcoming NLDS.

But that's water under the bridge. What's done is done. Besides, the Braves have had their own share of missed opportunities in this pennant race. Before they dropped Wednesday night's game to the Nats, they split a four-game series against the struggling Phillies, and a week before that, they lost two out of three to the Giants. Whichever team winds up losing this division will have plenty of time for recriminations during the offseason should it prove costly in the playoffs.

Right now, though, the Mets need to put all that behind them and focus on the series at hand. They have their top three starters going for them. Jacob deGrom has struggled over his last three starts, giving up eleven earned runs in fifteen innings, but dominated the Braves earlier in the season; Max Scherzer has allowed only four hits and one earned run in his last twelve innings; and Chris Bassitt has been the team's most reliable starter all season long. There will be no excuses if the Mets let this opportunity slip through their fingers.

The good news for the Metropolitans is that their offense has come alive of late. Since the Cubs swept them, they've scored four or more runs in eleven of their last twelve games. The other good news is that Edwin Diaz has been lights out all season. If the Mets have a lead going into the ninth inning, they can count on him to seal the deal.

The problem, however, is getting to Diaz. The rest of the relievers, save for Adam Ottavino, have been inconsistent at best. Showalter has done his best trying to navigate through the minefield GM Billy Eppler laid for him. While the Braves fortified their bullpen at the trade deadline, Eppler picked up retread Mychal Givens from the Cubs, who has been a big disappointment. Neither of the starters Showalter has used in middle relief have proven reliable. If deGrom, Scherzer or Bassitt can't go at least six innings, the Mets will be in trouble.

Why is it so important for the Mets to win the division? After all, as the top wildcard, they'd host all three games at CitiField. And based on how the other two wildcard teams are playing, the Mets would be the clear favorites to prevail.

True enough, but winning the division would give them an extra five days off. And that could be critical for Starling Marte. The all-star right fielder suffered a fractured finger on his right hand in a game against the Pirates on September 6 and has been out of the lineup ever since. His absence has forced Showalter to play Tyler Naquin in right. Naquin has been another of Eppler's disappointing trade deadline acquisitions. It's possible Marte might be ready to go by the divisional round. I can't see this team going to the World Series without him.

So, it's come down to this: two of the best teams in baseball battling it out for the National League East division title. It doesn't get any better than that.

Baseball How It Oughta NOT Be

It's time to face facts. The New York Mets are in a slump; the worst slump they've been in all season. After taking two out of three against the National League best Los Angeles Dodgers at CitiField and entering what many consider to be the easiest September schedule of any team in the division, the Amazins' dropped two out of three to the lowly Washington Nationals.

Only a month ago, the Mets were sitting pretty in the NL East. They had just swept the Cincinnati Reds at home and were 73-39, seven games in front of the Atlanta Braves. Since then, they've gone 12-11 and their lead has been whittled down to a mere one game. While the pitching - particularly the bullpen - has been sporadic, it's the hitting that's been problematic.

Over the last 23 games, the Mets have scored a total of 75 runs, for a 3.2 runs per game average. If you think that's bad, when you subtract the 26 runs they scored in the four-game series against the Phillies in Philadelphia, that average goes down to 2.5 runs per game!

There's plenty of blame to go around. For starters, Pete Alonso continues to be susceptible to pitches out of the strike zone. Since hitting home runs in back to games against the Nats and Braves in early August, he has only three home runs and 15 RBIs in his last 30 games. Over a 162 game schedule that would come out to 16 HRs and 81 RBIs. That simply is not good enough.

Next up, Francisco Lindor. The gold glove shortstop has only one home run and four RBIs in his last 18 games. Lindor, on the whole, has had a solid season. Batting third in the lineup, he's been a productive run producer and he's been solid in the field. But like Alonso, he's picked a particularly bad time to go into a slump.

When your top two run producers are struggling to generate runs, it puts extra pressure on the rest of the lineup. And let's be honest, even with Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil having good seasons, we're not exactly talking about the 1927 Yankees here. The acquisitions by Billy Eppler at the trade deadline are turning into pumpkins. Daniel Vogelbach hasn't driven in a run since he smacked a two-run homer at Yankee Stadium on August 22. That's nine games. Tyler Naquin has only two hits and no RBIs in his last 17 games; and Darin Ruff has two hits and one RBI in his last 13 games. The decision not to go big at the trade deadline is coming back to bite this organization.

Throughout much of this season, the secret to the Mets success was their ability to extend at bats and make opposing pitchers work hard, especially in the first inning. No team in the majors has been better at it. Of late, though, Mets hitters have been anything but patient at the plate, swinging at pitches they have no business swinging at and letting opposing pitchers off the hook. That's led to a lot of three up and three down innings, which has forced Buck Showalter to go to his bullpen earlier than he would like to.

With so much going wrong lately, the news that yesterday's game against the Pirates in Pittsburgh was rained out was probably the best thing that could've happened to this team. And if the weather report for tonight proves accurate, the Mets may have consecutive days off for the first time since the Allstar Break. Hopefully they can put the time to good use.

Regardless of what happens tonight, the Mets must find a way out of this funk and fast. The winner of the the National League East will likely earn a first round bye and a ticket to the divisional round, while the loser will have to take its chances in a best of three wild card round.

Why is that significant? Let's assume that the Mets and Braves are tied for first going into the last three games of the regular season. Buck would undoubtedly be forced to use his top three starters in order to clinch the division. And if it works out, he would then be able to rest Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt and start them in the NLDS. But should the Braves prevail and the Mets wind up as the wild card, Showalter would have a decision to make. Does he start deGrom and Scherzer on short rest or does he go with his fourth and fifth starters? Either way, it's risky. 

That's why it's imperative that the Mets, if they have any hope of advancing deep into the postseason, win the division. Their one lone advantage is their starting rotation, especially the top two, who when they're on, are arguably the best one-two punch in baseball. 

The good news is the Mets are still in first place and between them and the Braves, they have the easier schedule. The bad news is the Braves are clicking on all cylinders while the Mets are sputtering. As of now, if you had to pick a favorite, it would be the Braves.

From this point on, the Mets have to assume their season is on the line, because it is. Alonso and Lindor have to snap out of their funk and start producing. Everything hinges on what those two do. As for Vogelbach, he has to do something other than strike out and ground out, which is what he's been doing a lot of lately. Marte, McNeil and Mark Canha - who's been the most consistent hitter in this lineup - will be just fine. And if Luis Guillorme comes back soon, that will be a tremendous help.

With 27 games left in the regular season, the Mets are 85-50, only 15 wins away from their first 100 win season since 1988. As good as that would be, it still might not be enough to beat out the Braves. 

Time For the Polar Bear to Come Out of Hibernation

Beginning tonight, the New York Mets enter their most important stretch drive since 2015. With a record of 79-46, they currently sit in first place, one and a half games in front of the Atlanta Braves, who, since they got spanked in a five-game series against the Amazins' at CitiField, are 14-2 in their last 16 games.

Meanwhile, since that series, the Mets have gone 9-7 over their last 16, including a two-game sweep at the hands of the Bronx Bombers at Yankee Stadium. I'm sure I don't need to remind the reader what happened last year. August has habitually not been a kind month to the Mets.

The good news? The Mets schedule for the rest of the season isn't all that difficult. In fact, it's pretty damn good. After they host the Colorado Rockies for four games, the Dodgers come to town for three games. After that, the Mets don't play another team with a winning record until September 19, when they head to Milwaukee to play the Brewers. They then play another five games against losing teams before their last series with the Braves in Atlanta. They wrap up the season at home against the Nationals. All told, the combined won-loss record of these losing teams is 197-300. That's a winning percentage of .398. If the Mets can't make some hay with a schedule like that, they don't deserve to be in the postseason, much less advance in it. 

But here's the thing. Even if the Mets play .800 ball against those teams, that still might not be enough to beat out Atlanta for the division. That's because the Braves schedule is almost as good. In fact, the toughest part might be their upcoming three-game set against the Cardinals in St. Louis. As hot as the Braves have been, the Cardinals have been almost as hot. They're 17-5 in the month of August. So if you're the Mets, you're hoping St. Louis can win at least two out of three.

So what do the Mets have to do to right their ship?

It all comes down to the 800 pound gorilla in the room. Pete Alonso has been in a funk the last few weeks. The cleanup hitter has hit only one home run in his last twenty games and has only four for the month of August. That is simply not good enough. Almost as bad as his lack of power is the fact that he's falling into old habits by swinging at pitches out of the strike zone. He is particularly susceptible to pitches that are low and away. There isn't a pitcher in the majors who doesn't know how to pitch to Alonso and the more he continues to swing at those pitches, the longer he will be in a slump.

If Alonso is looking for a way out of his doldrums, he might want to start taking notes from Mark Canha. The left fielder has been on a tear of late; during the ten-game road trip, in which he played in nine, Canha hit .417, with ten hits - seven for extra bases - in twenty-four at bats. Three of those extra base hits were home runs. Think about it. Over his last nine games, Canha has hit only one less homer than Alonso has hit for the entire month.

The difference between the two players could not be more apparent. Canha, though not nearly the player Alonso is, is far more disciplined at the plate. He looks for his pitch and isn't afraid to take a strike if it's not the pitch he wants. Conversely, Alonso will often reach for a pitch that he knows is out of the strike zone. As a result, he either strikes out or grounds out. Every once in a while he manages to get just enough of the ball to get one by the infielders for a single, and he's even managed to draw the rare walk or two.

For a Mets team that isn't exactly blessed with an over abundance of power to begin with, that won't do. As good as Francisco Lindor and Daniel Vogelbach have been - and they have been solid, particularly Lindor who is having a career year both at the plate and in the field - without Alonso's bat, they have no chance at the division. The way this lineup works is that Alonso carries the bulk of the load; the rest of the hitters compliment him. If he becomes an easy out - like he has of late - then the whole team struggles to score runs, as they did in three of the four games in Atlanta and both games in the Bronx. In multiple situations during the road trip, Alonso came up with men in scoring position. Only twice - game three in Atlanta and game one in Philly - did he come through.

Something has to give. Either hitting coach Eric Chavez can somehow get through to him or manager Buck Showalter has to move him down in the lineup. With the Mets only two games up on the Braves in the loss column, they cannot afford to let his slump continue to plague the offense. Maybe batting fifth or sixth will take some of the pressure off Pete. One thing's for certain: the status quo is unacceptable. This isn't April or May, it's late summer and the heat is on.

Yes, the bullpen could be deeper, but it is what it is. Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt are about as automatic as any starters in the game. And when Carlos Carrasco comes back in late September, Buck will have himself one helluva starting rotation going into the playoffs. But the sixty-four thousand dollar question that remains to be answered is whether the Mets will go in as a division winner or a wildcard. Right now, it's 50 / 50 at best.

Look, all players - even the great ones - go through slumps from time to time. And without exception, all of them snap out of it. It's time for Pete Alonso to snap out of his slump and be the leader this team needs.

It's time for the polar bear to come out of hibernation.

Mets Put On a Clinic and School the Braves

Sometimes stats can be a little misleading, and sometimes they can nail it on the head. When it comes to the 2022 New York Mets, clearly it's a case of the latter. Don't believe me, just ask the Atlanta Braves, last year's World Series winner. In 12 games against the champs this season, the Amazins are 8-4, 4-1 in their last five. 

The Mets put on a clinic in these five games. They outscored Atlanta 31-22. Mets starters had a better ERA than Braves starters: 4.68 to 6.75, and that was with game-two starter Taijuan Walker getting lit up for eight runs in the first two innings. Even the Mets relievers - which I still contend is a concern that could undermine their postseason aspirations - were better than their Braves counterparts: 4.05 to 5.29; though I suspect a lot of that had to do with Edwin Diaz's three stellar appearances in which he didn't allow a run and struck out seven in 3 and 2/3 innings.

Bottom line, the Mets were simply the better team in this series. Their top stars outperformed the Braves top stars. They out hustled Atlanta on the base paths and played much better defense. The Mets made every big play there was to be made in this series; even the trade deadline acquisitions that Bill Eppler brought in made significant contributions. This team can hit, it can pitch and it can play defense. And with Jacob deGrom now back in the starting rotation and pitching as if he never left, they are going to frustrate opposing teams the rest of the way.

These aren't the 2021 Mets; not by a long shot. That team collapsed in August and wound up in third place with a record of 77-85. Not only aren't these Mets wilting, as Ethan Sears of The New York Post writes, they're getting better. At 70-39, they are tied with the hated Yankees for the second best record in major league baseball. Only the L.A. Dodgers have more wins. They are 12-2 in their last 14 games; they lead the Braves by six and a half games - seven in the loss column. And with the lowly Cincinnati Reds coming to town to begin a three-game set, the Mets are in excellent position to build on that lead.

There are many reasons for the success of this team. They are deeper than last year's team, that's for sure. Starling Marte and Mark Canha have been valuable additions and have vastly improved an outfield that was average at best last year. Chris Bassitt has been an excellent pitcher all season long and has a 2.52 ERA over his last eight starts. With deGrom and Scherzer serving as a one-two punch, he rounds out the best starting trio in the National League. Eduardo Escobar and Luis Guillorme make for an excellent platoon at third base, and Jeff McNeil has rediscovered his hitting stroke while playing a solid second base. After a woeful first year, Francisco Lindor has become the player the Mets were hoping he'd be when they acquired him from Cleveland. And as for Alonso, the Polar Bear, as he is affectionally known, is leading the National League in RBIs with 95.

But by far the biggest reason for the Mets success this season has been the re-emergence of Edwin Diaz as an elite relief pitcher. Since his arrival from Seattle, along with Robinson Cano, he has struggled to regain the form that made him the best closer in baseball in 2018. This year he's been lights out for the Mets, saving 26 of 28 save opportunities and posting a league-best 1.39 ERA. In a best of seven series, with Scherzer, deGrom and Bassitt starting and Diaz coming out of the pen, this team will be very tough to beat come October.

And there will be an October for this team. It isn't bravado, or cockiness. This team believes in itself, and with each passing game they are making believers out of skeptics. Even when they fell behind 8-0 in game two against Atlanta, they refused to give up. They scratched and clawed their way back into the game. And if Ronald Acuna doesn't rob Pete Alonso of a two-run homer, and if third-base coach Joey Cora doesn't foolishly challenge center fielder Michael Harris's arm with the bases loaded, the Mets might've swept all five games against the Braves. Think about that.

Credit Buck Showalter for the way in which this team comports itself both on and off the field. They play the game they way it's supposed to be played; the way it used to be played: executing both offensively and defensively. They extend at bats better than any team in baseball. Three of the five Atlanta starters never made it out of the fifth inning, that's how patient and disciplined the Mets hitters were at the plate. 

The fact is this team doesn't beat itself; it's one of the reasons why they haven't gone through a prolonged slump. The outfielders hit the cutoff man, the pitchers cover first base, ground balls are run out. Despite being in the middle of the pack in home runs, they are third overall in runs scored. That doesn't happen by accident. And to think, George Steinbrenner fired this man after the 1995 season.

Look, there's still a lot of baseball yet to be played; anything can happen. But for the Flushing faithful things are looking up.

Did Buck Showalter Just Tip His Hand?

It was Vince Lombardi who once famously said, "Winning isn't everything; it's the only thing." Of course, Lombardi lifted the phrase from Red Sanders, the legendary UCLA Bruins football coach. It might very well be the most quoted phrase in all of sports, right up there with, "The best defense is a good offense," which traces its roots all the way back to, if you can believe it, George Washington.

The bottom line is this: we celebrate the winners in this country and quickly forget the losers. If you don't believe me, recite, in order, all the teams that have LOST the Super Bowl - without looking it up. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Buck Showalter is quite aware of what happened last season. The Mets entered the month of August five games up on the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, only to fade like a cheap pair of jeans in the dog days of summer. Going into last night's game, the Amazins were up three and half games over the Braves - four in the loss column. Would this be a case of, to quote the late, great Yogi Berra, "deja vu all over again?" Buck was determined to do everything possible to ensure it wouldn't.

Which explains his decision to go with his closer Edwin Diaz to get the last six outs of the game when his set-up man Adam Ottavino could've pitched the 8th inning. He had allowed a run on two hits in the 7th, narrowing the Mets lead to 6-4. At one point, they were comfortably ahead 5-0. A Braves comeback in front of the hometown faithful was something that had to be avoided at all costs. Even if it meant Diaz would be unavailable for tonight's game. 

But Showalter's decision to have his closer pitch two innings might have inadvertently revealed something else about his thinking that should be far more worrisome to Mets fans. Apart from Diaz, there isn't a single relief pitcher he can trust to protect a lead.

Consider what happened in Washington. The Nationals scored a total of three earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings against Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt. But against the bullpen, they scored nine earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings. And all of those runs, mind you, were scored after Juan Soto and Josh Bell were dealt to the San Diego Padres. That's right: against a lineup that had almost as many Triple A hitters as it did major league hitters, the vaunted Mets bullpen was lit up like a pinball machine. What do you suppose a team like the Braves would do to it?

Now you know why so many baseball analysts were scratching their heads when the Mets only added one reliever at the trade deadline. Seriously, if you think that the acquisition of Mychal Givens and the return of Trevor May from the IL is going to intimidate teams like the Braves, Dodger or Padres, you've taken one too many leaps off the Pepsi Porch. Yes, I know it's now called the Coca Cola corner, but Pepsi Porch just sounds better.

Here's the thing: Buck Showalter knows he has arguably the best starting rotation in baseball. He knows he has a pretty deep lineup capable of putting up a lot of runs. But even with all that, he also knows that this team will go only as far as Edwin Diaz takes it. And now, thanks to him tipping his hand last night, the entire National League knows it too.

Did the Mets Just Blow the NL East?

Are the Mets a better team today than they were before the trade deadline? Yes.

Are they as good as they could've been? Unfortunately no.

For the record, the moves Billy Eppler made were all solid pickups. J.D. Davis for Darin Ruf was a no-brainer. Davis has looked lost at the plate all season, while Ruf has been solid against lefties. He will platoon at DH with fellow trade acquisition Daniel Vogelbach, who has a pretty good average against righties. The addition of Mychal Givens to a beleaguered bullpen will come in handy in the dog days of August and September. And Tyler Naquin will provide much needed depth in the outfield. Gone are the days when Dominic Smith (.194) and Travis Jankowski (.164) were the only options available to Buck Showalter off the bench.

But here's the painful truth: Eppler failed to acquire the big bat this team desperately needs. Face it, once you get passed Starling Marte (.300, 11 HRs, 47 RBIs), Francisco Lindor (.261, 19 HRs, 74 RBIs) and Pete Alonso (.276, 27 HRs, 86 RBIs), there isn't one hitter in this lineup who puts the fear of God into an opposing pitcher. Mark Canha is a nice enough player with modest power; Jeff McNeil hits for a higher average but has even less power; and the Ruf / Vogelbach platoon is adequate at best. Luis Guillorme can't hit lefties and Eduardo Escobar can't hit righties. And whoever Showalter puts behind the plate is as close to an automatic out as there is in baseball. 

Look, I get it. The Mets weren't going to gut their farm system just to land Juan Soto. And even if they had been willing, no way the Nationals were going to trade him to a division rival. It's bad enough they have to see Max Scherzer staring back at them from the Mets dugout nineteen times during the season. Imagine the torment Soto could inflict upon them for the next decade and a half.

But even if Soto was nothing more than a pipe dream, it's hard to imagine Eppler couldn't have found someone better than Ruf, Vogelbach or Naquin out there. The Cubs were looking to move both Willson Contreras and Ian Happ. Contreras is a catcher who has 14 homers on the season, and when he's not behind the plate can easily DH, while Happ is a switch-hitter who can play both left field and third base. Who would you rather see batting behind Alonso? Contreras or a platoon of Ruf and Vogelbach?

I know it takes two to tango, and given that the Cubs were unable to find a trade partner for either Contreras or Happ, we can assume that their demands were too high. But for a fanbase that's grown accustomed to the Mets playing second fiddle in this town, it would've been nice to see them go all in, even if Eppler had to overpay. The 64 wins they had going into August represented the most wins the franchise has had at this point in the season since that magical year of 1986. It would be nothing short of gross negligence if this opportunity is wasted.

With the return of Jake deGrom, the Mets have arguably the best starting rotation in all of baseball. But after Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino, their bullpen is still too thin. And their lineup, with the exception of the aforementioned Marte, Lindor and Alonso, isn't nearly as potent as the Braves, Dodgers or Padres, who after acquiring Soto, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury are now a legit threat to win the World Series.

Are they good enough to make the postseason? Probably. But their odds of winning the division and avoiding the wildcard round took a serious hit this week.