Play Ball!

Even if you don't think baseball is America's national pastime, you gotta admit there is something special about the start of the season that brings out the optimist in all of us.

Unless you're a Mets fan. For the Flushing faithful, optimism, to paraphrase the late, great John Prine, is a word we seldom use. That's because the boys in the blue and orange, with a few noteworthy exceptions, typically crush our hopes by mid June.

That is until last year. In 2022, the Mets were one of the best teams in all of baseball. And had it not been for a rough patch in September, where they lost some games they probably should've won, they would've run away with the National League East.

As a team, the Mets were second in batting average at .259; sixth in RBIs with 735; seventh in ERA at 3.57; second in fewest errors committed with 67; and tied for third with the Atlanta Braves with 101 wins.

Individually, Pete Alonso tied Mike Trout of the L.A. Angels for third in HRs with 40, and tied Joe Judge of the Yankees for most RBIs with 131; Jeff McNeil led the majors with a .326 batting average; and Buck Showalter was named NL manager of the year.

But as they used to say in Manhattan years ago, that and a subway token will get you a ride on the 7th Avenue Express. 2023 is a brand new year, with brand new expectations. And as good as the Mets were last season, none of that will matter in the slightest if they struggle out of the gate this season.

So how good is this team? Losing Edwin Diaz is huge, I won't lie. Next to Alonso and Francisco Lindor, Diaz was the most valuable Met last year. He was about as automatic as they come among closers. His 32 saves and 1.31 ERA will be next to impossible to replace. Look for Jeremy Hefner to lean on David Robertson, who had 20 saves and a 2.70 ERA last year for the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies, to pick up some of the slack. If he isn't up to the task, the Mets might have to look outside the organization. 

As for the starters, Jose Quintana being out until mid July shouldn't be that big of a deal. That's because starting pitching is one of the few areas on this club that has enough depth to withstand an injury. David Peterson can hold down the fort until Quintana returns. With Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander - Jacob deGrom's replacement - Kodai Senga - signed during the offseason - and Carlos Carrasco, the Mets have arguably the best - if somewhat top heavy - rotation in the National League.

If there is any concern - other than the bullpen - it is the bottom half of the batting order. Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Lindor, Alonso and McNeil form one of the better 1 thru 5's in baseball. It's 6 thru 9 that's the problem. Daniel Vogelbach is an adequate DH who can't hit lefties. Mark Canha is a good left fielder who had an inconsistent year at the plate. And while Eduardo Escobar is a solid third baseman who hit .321 over his last 30 games, there's no guarantee he can replicate that over a full season.

Now you know why Steve Cohen wanted Carlos Correa. His .291 batting average and 22 homers would've made this lineup a lot more potent, as well as solidified the infield. When the deal to sign him fell through, Billy Eppler was never able to locate that extra bat. That failure could prove costly.

The Mets may have the highest payroll in the major leagues at $340 million, but what most people don't understand is that a good chuck of that payroll went to re-sign players who otherwise might've left or to sign players that replaced the ones who did. The fact is, even before the Diaz injury, this team, on paper, was only marginally better than last year's wild card team. With Diaz out for the season, there's no telling where they may finish.

The optimist in me would like to think they'll find a way; the realist in me has been burned too many times.

Prediction: 90-72, good for third place in the NL East, and the third wild card.

Did Buck Showalter Just Tip His Hand?

It was Vince Lombardi who once famously said, "Winning isn't everything; it's the only thing." Of course, Lombardi lifted the phrase from Red Sanders, the legendary UCLA Bruins football coach. It might very well be the most quoted phrase in all of sports, right up there with, "The best defense is a good offense," which traces its roots all the way back to, if you can believe it, George Washington.

The bottom line is this: we celebrate the winners in this country and quickly forget the losers. If you don't believe me, recite, in order, all the teams that have LOST the Super Bowl - without looking it up. Go ahead, I'll wait.

Buck Showalter is quite aware of what happened last season. The Mets entered the month of August five games up on the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, only to fade like a cheap pair of jeans in the dog days of summer. Going into last night's game, the Amazins were up three and half games over the Braves - four in the loss column. Would this be a case of, to quote the late, great Yogi Berra, "deja vu all over again?" Buck was determined to do everything possible to ensure it wouldn't.

Which explains his decision to go with his closer Edwin Diaz to get the last six outs of the game when his set-up man Adam Ottavino could've pitched the 8th inning. He had allowed a run on two hits in the 7th, narrowing the Mets lead to 6-4. At one point, they were comfortably ahead 5-0. A Braves comeback in front of the hometown faithful was something that had to be avoided at all costs. Even if it meant Diaz would be unavailable for tonight's game. 

But Showalter's decision to have his closer pitch two innings might have inadvertently revealed something else about his thinking that should be far more worrisome to Mets fans. Apart from Diaz, there isn't a single relief pitcher he can trust to protect a lead.

Consider what happened in Washington. The Nationals scored a total of three earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings against Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt. But against the bullpen, they scored nine earned runs in just 7 and 1/3 innings. And all of those runs, mind you, were scored after Juan Soto and Josh Bell were dealt to the San Diego Padres. That's right: against a lineup that had almost as many Triple A hitters as it did major league hitters, the vaunted Mets bullpen was lit up like a pinball machine. What do you suppose a team like the Braves would do to it?

Now you know why so many baseball analysts were scratching their heads when the Mets only added one reliever at the trade deadline. Seriously, if you think that the acquisition of Mychal Givens and the return of Trevor May from the IL is going to intimidate teams like the Braves, Dodger or Padres, you've taken one too many leaps off the Pepsi Porch. Yes, I know it's now called the Coca Cola corner, but Pepsi Porch just sounds better.

Here's the thing: Buck Showalter knows he has arguably the best starting rotation in baseball. He knows he has a pretty deep lineup capable of putting up a lot of runs. But even with all that, he also knows that this team will go only as far as Edwin Diaz takes it. And now, thanks to him tipping his hand last night, the entire National League knows it too.