Play Ball!

Even if you don't think baseball is America's national pastime, you gotta admit there is something special about the start of the season that brings out the optimist in all of us.

Unless you're a Mets fan. For the Flushing faithful, optimism, to paraphrase the late, great John Prine, is a word we seldom use. That's because the boys in the blue and orange, with a few noteworthy exceptions, typically crush our hopes by mid June.

That is until last year. In 2022, the Mets were one of the best teams in all of baseball. And had it not been for a rough patch in September, where they lost some games they probably should've won, they would've run away with the National League East.

As a team, the Mets were second in batting average at .259; sixth in RBIs with 735; seventh in ERA at 3.57; second in fewest errors committed with 67; and tied for third with the Atlanta Braves with 101 wins.

Individually, Pete Alonso tied Mike Trout of the L.A. Angels for third in HRs with 40, and tied Joe Judge of the Yankees for most RBIs with 131; Jeff McNeil led the majors with a .326 batting average; and Buck Showalter was named NL manager of the year.

But as they used to say in Manhattan years ago, that and a subway token will get you a ride on the 7th Avenue Express. 2023 is a brand new year, with brand new expectations. And as good as the Mets were last season, none of that will matter in the slightest if they struggle out of the gate this season.

So how good is this team? Losing Edwin Diaz is huge, I won't lie. Next to Alonso and Francisco Lindor, Diaz was the most valuable Met last year. He was about as automatic as they come among closers. His 32 saves and 1.31 ERA will be next to impossible to replace. Look for Jeremy Hefner to lean on David Robertson, who had 20 saves and a 2.70 ERA last year for the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies, to pick up some of the slack. If he isn't up to the task, the Mets might have to look outside the organization. 

As for the starters, Jose Quintana being out until mid July shouldn't be that big of a deal. That's because starting pitching is one of the few areas on this club that has enough depth to withstand an injury. David Peterson can hold down the fort until Quintana returns. With Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander - Jacob deGrom's replacement - Kodai Senga - signed during the offseason - and Carlos Carrasco, the Mets have arguably the best - if somewhat top heavy - rotation in the National League.

If there is any concern - other than the bullpen - it is the bottom half of the batting order. Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Lindor, Alonso and McNeil form one of the better 1 thru 5's in baseball. It's 6 thru 9 that's the problem. Daniel Vogelbach is an adequate DH who can't hit lefties. Mark Canha is a good left fielder who had an inconsistent year at the plate. And while Eduardo Escobar is a solid third baseman who hit .321 over his last 30 games, there's no guarantee he can replicate that over a full season.

Now you know why Steve Cohen wanted Carlos Correa. His .291 batting average and 22 homers would've made this lineup a lot more potent, as well as solidified the infield. When the deal to sign him fell through, Billy Eppler was never able to locate that extra bat. That failure could prove costly.

The Mets may have the highest payroll in the major leagues at $340 million, but what most people don't understand is that a good chuck of that payroll went to re-sign players who otherwise might've left or to sign players that replaced the ones who did. The fact is, even before the Diaz injury, this team, on paper, was only marginally better than last year's wild card team. With Diaz out for the season, there's no telling where they may finish.

The optimist in me would like to think they'll find a way; the realist in me has been burned too many times.

Prediction: 90-72, good for third place in the NL East, and the third wild card.

Cohen Made the Correct Call on deGrom

In the end, it didn't come down to the dollars but the term. The Mets had a three-year, $120 million offer on the table to keep Jacob deGrom in Queens. That's $40 million per season. That wasn't good enough. So the two-time Cy Young award winner bolted and signed a five-year, $185 million deal with the Texas Rangers last week. At $37 million per season, deGrom traded $3 million in annual salary for an extra two years of job security.

It was a deal Steve Cohen had no choice but to reject. To commit five years to a pitcher who over the last two seasons started a grand total of 26 games and had only two more innings pitched last season than team closer Edwin Diaz would've been insane. The fact that they were willing to go as high as three years is proof that they were serious about retaining deGrom. 

And while I don't begrudge any professional athlete for getting the most money they can, my gut tells me that this is a move deGrom will come to regret, and probably sooner rather than later. The Rangers were one of the worst teams in baseball last season, and even if the righty regains his Cy Young dominance, the prospects of Texas making the postseason next year or any year in the future are remote at best, especially in a division that already has the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners.

So where does this leave the Mets? Fortunately, we didn't have long to wait for an answer. Monday, they replaced deGrom by signing three-time Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander to a two-year $86.6 million contract. A little more than Cohen probably wanted to fork over, but given the circumstances, necessary. Last season, Verlander went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA for the World Series winning Astros. In 175 innings pitched, he surrendered only 116 hits while striking out 185.

If there's one concern I have here, it's the age at the top of the starting rotation. Verlander will be 40 by the time he takes the mound for the Amazins next season. When paired with 39 year old Max Scherzer, the Mets will have the oldest one-two punch in the big leagues. And given how Scherzer began to break down near the end of the season, Cohen is taking a huge risk here.

Another concern I have is the amount of money being doled out to Verlander and Scherzer. Last season, the Mets had a MLB high team payroll of $251 million. With the Diaz extension, the possible return of Brandon Nimmo, and new contracts for arbitration eligible Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil, that payroll will likely swell to $280 million, of which Verlander and Scherzer will command $86.6 million. That's a lot of up front Benjamin Franklins for a team that still needs a third starter and has a lack of depth in the bullpen. The reason the Astros won the World Series last season was because they had the best and deepest pen in baseball. If Billy Eppler doesn't address this sore spot, the Mets will go out early again in 2023.

But for now, at least, Cohen did what he had to do. He replaced an ace with an ace, albeit, one who's six years older. And he has shown the Mets faithful that he is no Jeff Wilpon. He's willing to spend whatever it takes to make sure this team is a contender. 

Good for him.