Buck is Playing with Fire

In theory, the strategy makes sense. You start your best pitcher against the Padres in game one of the wildcard round. Then, assuming he wins, you start your third best pitcher in the clincher. And if everything goes according to plan, your second best pitcher is available to start game one of the NLDS against the Dodgers.

Sounds perfect. What good possibly go wrong?

Well, for starters, let's say Max Scherzer out duels Yu Darvish. So far, so good. Buck Showalter hands the ball to Christ Bassitt in game two, who pitches well, but not well enough to win. Now, Buck has to rely on Jacob deGrom in game three to save the season, and quite possibly his job. 

Regardless of what happens, the grand strategy is out the window. If Jake throws a gem, Buck has to decide whether to go with Carlos Carrasco or Taijuan Walker as his game one starter in the NLDS. Either way, the Dodgers go up 1-0. But if Jakes loses, Buck will spend the entire off season trying to justify why he elected not to go with his two best pitchers in the first playoff series this franchise has appeared in since 2015.

I cannot emphasize enough just how critical it is for this team, after blowing the division to the Braves in the final days of the season, to win at least one playoff series. To go out in the first round is simply a non-starter. If the Mets go on and lose to the Dodgers, the fans will be disappointed, but they'll live. After all, the Dodgers are the best team in the majors. They're suppose to win. But if the Mets lose to a team like the Padres, the fans will be outraged, and rightfully so.

Look, the goal of every professional sports team is to win championships, I get it. And owner Steve Cohen has made it abundantly clear he's willing to spend whatever it takes to accomplish that goal. He's already invested $279 million in salaries this year and will likely spend another $20 to $30 million next year. That is music to the ears of a fanbase that for far too long has seen its team play second fiddle to the Yankees.

But, let's be honest for a moment. As good as the Mets have been this season - and winning 101 games is not too shabby - it does have flaws; and some of those flaws were revealed in Atlanta last weekend. Only an incurable optimist would believe this team is capable of winning a World Series.

But the Padres are not the Braves. The Mets should beat them. They're the better team. While the pitching staffs may be comparable, the Mets have a deeper lineup and Edwin Diaz in their bullpen. If they lose because Buck was caught looking too far ahead, it will be the worst decision by a Mets manager since Davey Johnson decided to leave Doc Golden in to face Mike Scioscia in the top of the 9th in game four of 1988 NLCS. We all know what happened. Scioscia's two-run homer tied the score, and the Dodgers went on to win the game, the pennant and the World Series.

Buck Showalter is playing with fire, and if he doesn't knock it off, the whole season could go up in smoke.

Ya Gotta Bereave

In a word, it was brutal. How brutal? This one statistic, more than any other, summed it up best.  Of the 53 innings in the 2015 World Series, the Royals led in only 13 of them. And keep in mind, five of those 13 innings came in game two.

Going into the fall classic, the Mets had one advantage over the Royals: their starting pitching. And with the exception of game two, the starters certainly did their job. So why was this series so lopsided? Why did a team which led for 40 out of 53 innings and had late-inning leads in four of the five games in the series come up short? Three reasons: a lack of clutch hitting, a porous bullpen and shoddy defense. In every measurable metric, sans the starting pitching, the Royals were by far the superior team.

Sadly, you could see this day coming. Since the trade deadline deals that Sandy Alderson pulled off, the Mets were a streaky team offensively, led by Yoenis Cespedes. There's no denying he carried the team from the dog days of August through mid September, when he began to cool off. Indeed, this team feasted off of some of the worst pitching in the National League. The Mets went from one of the worst scoring teams in the majors to one of the best virtually overnight.

But they lived primarily on the long ball, more so than any other contending team. Coupled with their starting pitching, they had a huge advantage over both the Dodgers and the Cubs. So much so, that their two biggest flaws - the bullpen and shaky defense - never played a factor. Terry Collins was able to ride his starters deep into games, even using his closer to get the final six outs in the deciding game against the Dodgers.

But the Royals were successfully able to expose the Mets' flaws. Their ability to put the ball in play severely tested a defense that was in over its head. And the bullpen was, for all intents and purposes, a total failure. From Jeurys Familia's blown saves in games one, four and five, to Tyler Clippard's inability to get crucial outs as a set-up man, it was painful to watch. Small wonder why Collins elected to allow Matt Harvey to start the 9th inning in game five. He was about as close to perfection as any pitcher had been for the Amazin's in the entire series.

And then there were the errors committed by David Wright, Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda, all of them costly. Wright's poor throw in game one set up the eventual game-winning run; Murphy's inability to field a ground ball opened up the flood gates in game four; and Duda's wide throw to the plate in game five allowed the tying run to score. Marv Throneberry would've been proud.

But it was their lack of clutch hitting that really did the Mets in. The bottom of the 6th inning in game five was a textbook example of how not to win a series. The Mets loaded the bases with no outs and the most they were able to score was one run. One stinking run! Conversely, whenever the Royals got runners in scoring position, as they tended to do in the later innings, they usually plated them. They put on a clinic in every game except game three.

So now that it's over, where do the Mets go from here? Clearly, Alderson has some decisions to make. He's already put to bed one question: whether to bring back Collins. The organization signed him to a two-year extension. While I'm not a huge Collins' fan, I have to admit, there weren't a lot of options. He may not be the best, but he's far from the worst this team could do and, unlike the meltdown that occurred with the Washington Nationals, his players seem to love him. Go figure.

Next up will be deciding whether to tender offers to both Cespedes and Murphy. Both played integral parts in getting the Mets to both the postseason and the World Series. Murphy had himself one of the great runs in baseball, smacking a home run in six consecutive games. But both players did virtually nothing in the Series. Not only that, both made huge errors. Cespedes got doubled off first base when a liner by Duda was caught, ending game four and let's not forget the aforementioned flub by Murphy earlier in the game.

If I had to guess, I'd say the Mets let Cespedes walk without an offer. No way they're going to give him the $200 million he's looking for, and for once, I'm on their side in this. The problem with Cespedes is that he's vulnerable against top-notch pitching. He either drives the ball to Pluto or he grounds out. Murphy, however, is another story. For the right price, I'd bring him back. Yes he's a liability in the field, but his ability to play multiple positions, coupled by a low strikeout ratio, will make him a good fit.

That leaves the bullpen as Alderson's next and most essential project. Clippard has pitched his last game in a Mets' uniform. Good riddance. That means a replacement for him is essential. Addison Reed could fill his shoes. Or Alderson could look outside the system and acquire someone either through trade or free agency. He will also have to find a lefty. Every good team in baseball has one in the pen that can get valuable outs, except the Mets. And if Bartolo Colon can be enticed to accept a relief role, he could be that bridge that Collins has been looking for.

The loss of Cespedes means that we will find out what Juan Lagaris is made of. If Alderson isn't comfortable with him in center, a replacement will have to be found. That won't be easy. Good center fielders don't grow on trees. Michael Conforto should come into his own as the permanent left fielder. He has good power and can hit for average. And while Duda will never win a gold glove at first, he's still better than anybody else in the system.

Come July, the Mets will have arguably the best starting rotation in baseball with the return of Zach Wheeler from Tommy John surgery. If they can hold their own offensively, they will be contenders for the eastern division of the National League. They may have gotten shellacked by the Royals, but brighter days are ahead for this franchise.

Mets Will Win, If...

Going into their first World Series in 15 years, the New York Mets are slight favorites over the Kansas City Royals. The reason comes down to starting pitching. Put succinctly, the Mets have a huge advantage here. All four of their starters have extremely impressive ERAs, much more impressive than the Royals.

In fact, when you break it down, both teams are fairly close everywhere else. Both have impressive lineups that can inflict damage on the other team's pitching; though, as we shall see, each do it differently. And both clubs have solid closers in their bullpen. But it's their starters that give the Mets the edge and why many feel they should prevail in the Series.

Yet I remain cautiously optimistic. Why? Because until now the Mets' starters haven't been truly tested. The Dodgers' lineup was, well, a joke. At best, there were maybe two or three legitimate hitters on it. The Cubs' lineup was built around the home run. They mauled the Cardinals in the divisional series. Against the more potent arms of the Mets, they wilted.

The Royals won't go away so quietly. While they can hit the occasional home run, they much prefer to smack the ball around to all areas of the park. They took apart the Blue Jays' pitching in the previous series. They can test a pitching staff like few lineups can.

This presents a huge problem for the Mets, especially their likely game two starter, Jacob deGrom. On two occasions deGrom was on the ropes in this post season: game five against the Dodgers and game three against the Cubs. He fell behind early and ofen and put his team in trouble. His pitch count was extremely high through the first four innings of both games. What saved him was the inability of both the Dodgers and Cubs to capitalize on their opportunities.

If the same thing should happen to him against the Royals, it will cost him this time. DeGrom won't be the beneficiary of either a lousy hitting team or a sloppy and undisciplined one. Kansas City's lineup is patient enough to wait him out and make him throw a hittable strike. Also, since they don't strike out a lot, deGrom will have to entice the Royals' hitters to hit 'em where they are rather than where they ain't.

With that in mind, it becomes imperative that game one starter Matt Harvey win the opener. Harvey is for all intents and purposes the most complete starter the Mets have. If they are to win the Series, Harvey must win his games. Period.

Also, Terry Collins will have to get solid performances from his bullpen. And that means more than just Jeurys Familia. At some point Tylor Clippard and Addison Reed are going to be on the mound and both must come through. Expecting these young starters to go eight innings each game is way too much to ask.

So there you have it. The Mets will win if both Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey win their games and if the bullpen holds up. If either falters, it will be another close but no cigar year for the Amazins.

Prediction: Mets in six.

Mets vs. Cubs Prediction

For the first time in nine years, the New York Mets will play for the right to get into the World Series. I needn't remind any of you that the last time didn't go particularly well. The image of Carlos Beltran with the bat on his shoulders taking a called third strike has been seared into our collective consciousness. When you couple that with the epic '07 collapse down the stretch, it has been a long and bitter nine years.

But if Mets' fans were chomping at the bits to get back to the World Series, just imagine what Cubs fans have been going through. The last time their team won a pennant was 1945; the last time it won a championship was 1908. At least Mets' fans can take solace that their team has been to four World Series, winning two of them, all since the end of World War II.

Before I begin my series breakdown, I think it only fair to tip my hat to both Mets' management and its owners. While it pains me to admit it, Fred and Jeff Wilpon deserve some credit for giving the green light to Sandy Alderson to make the moves necessary to bring a division title to New York. And Alderson made the most of the trade deadline, getting Yoenis Cespedes and several other key players.

Those trades, along with an underachieving Washington Nationals team - picked by many as a slam dunk for the division, possibly the league championship - allowed the Mets to take this division. Prior to the trades, the Mets were barely a .500 team.

Now on to the matchups. A look at both teams shows that they are virtually identical in runs scored, home runs and team ERA. What that means is that, barring a miscue, this series should go 6 or 7 games. The Mets' have an edge in position players everywhere, except 1st and 3rd base. And they have a deeper starting rotation than the Cubs. However, the Cubs have without a doubt the best starter in the series in Jake Arrieta. The Mets are going to have to beat him at least once in this series in order to advance.

If there is one Achilles heal for the Mets, it's their bullpen. Put succinctly, it's brutal. How brutal? In game 5 against the Dodgers, Terry Collins was forced to use starter Noah Syndergaard in the 7th inning and needed to have his closer Jeurys Familiar pitch the last two innings for the save. The Mets' starters are going to have to go at least seven or eight innings in their starts. Otherwise, this series could get ugly fast.

And even allowing for that, at some point Collins will have to ask his bullpen to get a few outs. Look for him to lean on 42 year old Bartolo Colon to provide some valuable relief. He doesn't have much of a choice. Tyler Clippard, obtained at the trade deadline as the set-up man for Familia, has been a bust of late.

It comes down to this. If the Mets' bullpen can get a few outs in this series, the Mets will prevail; if, not, the Cubs will advance to the World Series for the first time since 1945. The heart says Mets; the head says Cubs.

Prediction: Mets in 7.