Wednesday, February 9, 2022

When It Comes to Trades It Takes Two to Tango



Even though the NHL trade deadline is still more than a month away, rumors are circulating about who might be on the move and where. On Twitter, Rangers fans are finalizing their post-Christmas shopping lists and, as is typical for them, coming up with some creative suggestions.

Of course, the problem with making a trade is that it invariably hinges on two things: 1. Who you're competing against; and 2. How willing both sides are to arrive at a mutually beneficial arrangement.

Regarding the former, it's obvious the Rangers aren't the only team looking to improve their playoff prospects by adding one or more players. The Bruins have been looking for a second-line center ever since David Krejci retired; the Panthers are in need of someone, anyone, capable of playing defense; and the Avalanche could use a goaltender. You can bet they, and a few other teams, will be burning up the phone lines between now and March 21 in an attempt to address those needs.

Regarding the latter, contrary to what the Twitterverse says, it's rare that one team gets the better of another. For a trade to be consummated, both teams have to be realistic about their demands. Remember the Jack Eichel standoff? The Sabres were adamant that they weren't going to part with the all-star center unless they received the proverbial king's ransom in return. In the end, what they got from the Golden Knights was a second-line winger, a future center, a first-round pick in 2022 and a third-round pick in 2023. Not a bad haul, but hardly what I would call a king's ransom.

The bottom line is, fans don't make trades, GMs do. And that's why, if I'm a Rangers fan, I wouldn't get my hopes up about Chris Drury going trade happy at or before the deadline. Yes, per Capfriendly, the Blueshirts will have a shit-load of cap space with which to add players at the trade deadline; more than any other team that's out there. And, yes, it's better to have more cap space than less, even if it's only temporary. But having cap space is one thing; being able to utilize it is another.

In the end, any moves Drury makes will come down to who he's willing to give up and, more importantly, who he's not willing to give up. If he can find a reasonable trade partner to deal with, he'll pull the trigger; if he can't, the Rangers will go into the playoffs as is. 

With that in mind, I thought I'd conjure up a few of the more realistic trades that Drury could make that would improve his team's chances come May. I'm not saying these are done deals, just doable.

From the Vegas Golden Knights: Reilly Smith for a second-round pick in 2022 and Vitali Kravtsov. The Golden Knights need to clear about $5 mill in cap space and the Rangers need help at right wing. Smith is a UFA after the season, so he'd be a pure rental. He's played for Gerard Gallant before and he's familiar with his system. A win-win for both sides. You hate giving up a kid like Kravtsov with so much potential, but after what happened at the start of the season, some fences can't be mended. 

From the Arizona Coyotes: Phil Kessel for a second-round pick in 2022. Like Smith, he'd be a rental, except he'd be a lot cheaper to acquire. I'll be honest, Kessel wouldn't be my first choice but he's been on two Stanley Cup championship teams in Pittsburgh and his playoff experience will prove invaluable. Plus, he beats the hell out of Dryden Hunt at right wing. As for the talk of Jakob Chychrun, forget it. At $4.6m over the next three years, he's way too expensive for a team that has several, more pressing needs.

From the Seattle Kraken: Mark Giordano for a second and third-round pick in 2022, a third rounder in '23 and Patrik Nemeth. Ron Francis agrees to take Nemeth's $2.5m contract off Drury's hands for the next two seasons in exchange for some badly-needed draft capital, and the Rangers add an experienced defenseman to solidify their third pairing.

From the Vancouver Canucks: J.T. Miller for Filip Chytil, Nils Lundkvist and 2022's first rounder. As I wrote in an earlier piece, the only way Drury goes after Miller is if he feels he can't re-sign Ryan Strome. Miller has one more year remaining on his contract at a very team-friendly $5.25m, so acquiring him won't hamstring the organization in their efforts to extend Kaapo Kakko in the offseason. Of all the potential trades, this one might be the most difficult to pull off because the Canucks will likely want Braden Schneider instead of Lundkvist, and according to Larry Brooks of The New York Post, Drury has labeled him untouchable.

From the Winnipeg Jets: Mark Scheifele for Chytil, Lundkvist, and a first and second rounder in 2022. His name has surfaced recently. He's signed thru the '24 season, but at $6.125m, he might be a little too expensive for an organization that has several players it will have to sign to extensions over the next couple of years. Like Miller, if Drury goes this route, it means Strome is gone after the season.

From the Dallas Stars: Joe Pavelski for a first and second round pick in 2022, Chytil, Kravtsov and Lundkvist. This will be an expensive acquisition, but as rentals go, it doesn't get any better than Pavelski, who at 37, is leading his team in scoring. I'm not even sure this haul will be enough to land him, that's how valuable he is. One potential roadblock: Dallas is still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, so they may not want to trade him, even for a "king's ransom."

From the Philadelphia Flyers: Claude Giroux for a first-round pick in 2022 and Chytil. Chuck Fletcher still believes the Flyers can make a push in the second half, so he might not shop Giroux. But let's say he's willing to part with him, the Bruins might come to the table with a better package. Charlie Coyle and a number one would definitely be better than the Rangers offer, and unless Drury wants to get into a bidding war, the asking price might be too steep. Still, Giroux would be a great addition for the Rangers at center, and as a rental wouldn't upset the apple cart.

Of all the potential trades I listed above, the two I think are the most likely to come to fruition are Smith and / or Kessel. The Rangers need help at right wing and both these players represent considerable improvements over what they have. Since they'd be rentals, Gallant can keep Alexis Lafreniere on the third line with Chytil and either Kakko or Barclay Goodrow. And if they land both, Gallant can slot Goodrow on the fourth line with Kevin Rooney and Ryan Reaves. I also think it's possible they get Giordano, though that begs the question, what does Drury do with Nemeth if Francis balks at taking him in a deal?

I still think at the end of the day, Drury would prefer to re-sign Strome, but if he can't, Miller remains a viable option over Scheifele. As for Pavelski, I predict Dallas will hold onto him, the Bruins will end up with Giroux, and the Avs will acquire Marc-Andre Fleury from the Blackhawks, making them the odds-on favorite to win the Cup.

In my next piece, I'll rate what I think are the top eight teams in each conference.

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