Knicks Playoff Preview (Round One)

It was two years ago that the Knicks entered the playoffs as the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, and were quickly dispatched by the fifth seed Atlanta Hawks in five games. To say that was a painful loss would be putting it mildly.

But as the Monkees once sang, that was then, this is now. This year's Knicks enter the playoffs as the fifth seed in the East, but unlike that 2020-21 team, they are a lot deeper and a lot more potent. No longer are they depended solely on the offensive prowess of Julius Randle. They have other options like Obi Toppin, Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley who should win the Sixth Man of the Year award. 

But by far the biggest additions to this Knicks roster have been Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart; the former signed as a free agent over the summer; the latter acquired at the trade deadline for Cam Reddish. Brunson gives this team what it's lacked since the glory days of the '90s: a bonafide point guard who can run the offense. And Hart provides much needed depth and energy coming off the bench. Since his arrival from Portland back in February, the Knicks are 17-8.

It's hard not to love this team. Coached by Tom Thibodeau, it's arguably, the hardest working group of players in the NBA. There is no load management here. If you're healthy enough to play, you suit up. Period. And in a league that over-indulges its stars, often to the detriment of its fans, that's a breath of fresh air.

So how will this resilient bunch fare against the fourth seed Cleveland Cavaliers? Glad you asked. It all comes down to Donovan Mitchell, the elite-level guard who supposedly was headed to New York during the offseason. That was before Cleveland stepped in and upped their offer to the Utah Jazz.

Knicks fans at the time were livid with Leon Rose for fumbling the ball at the one-yard line. But in retrospect, not closing that deal turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Had the Knicks landed Mitchell it likely would've cost them R.J. Barrett, Mitchell Robinson and Toppin, plus three of their four unprotected first round draft picks. Leaving aside the picks for a minute, can you imagine what this team would look like without those three players? Not to mention that with Mitchell on the team, it's doubtful the Knicks would've signed Brunson. That also means no Hart at the deadline.

Below is a comparison of what the Knicks would've looked like with and without Mitchell.

Without Donovan Mitchell

Starters:

Mitchell Robison C

Julius Randle PF

R.J. Barrett SF

Jalen Brunson PG

Quentin Grimes SG

Bench:

Isaiah Hartenstein C

Obi Toppin PF

Immanuel Quickley SF

Josh Hart SG

Deuce McBride PG

With Donovan Mitchell

Starters:

Hartenstein C

Randle PF

Quickley SF

Mitchell SG

McBride PG

Bench:

Jericho Sims C

Grimes G

Derrick Rose G

Seriously, which team would you rather have? Before you answer that, consider that the Knicks, without Mitchell, finished only four games behind the Cavaliers in the standings. While it's clear that the starting lineup would be slightly better with Mitchell, the bench, sans Grimes, would suffer greatly. Imagine a Tom Thibodeau team without a reliable bench. That is ostensibly what the Knicks would be had Rose agreed to Utah's demands last summer. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make.

Now onto the matchup.

For the Knicks to prevail, they cannot let Mitchell and Darius Garland dominate the way they are capable of doing. Both players average over 20 points per game, with Mitchell averaging 28. Assuming Randle's ankle is sufficiently healed, the Knicks will have a decided edge in the front court over Evan Mobley and Lamar Stevens. If it isn't, Toppin will likely get the start. All that is moot, however, if they can't contain the Cavs backcourt.

During the regular season, the Knicks were fourth best in the NBA in turnovers, averaging just 13 per game. Against the Cavs, they averaged 15.5. The Knicks were also third best in offensive rebounds, averaging 12.6 per game. The latter is where Robinson and Hartenstein will earn their paychecks.

I expect Thibodeau to rotate his players and use his bench effectively. That means Quickley and Hart will get a ton of minutes. The Cavs, as loaded as their starting lineup is, will not be able to handle the Knicks depth. New York took three out of four from Cleveland during the regular season, and I see nothing that makes me think that trend won't continue in the postseason.

Prediction: Knicks in six.