Knicks Playoff Preview (Round Three)

For the second year in a row, the New York Knicks find themselves in the Eastern Conference Finals. Their opponent, the fourth-place Cleveland Cavaliers, ousted the first-place Detroit Pistons in a thrilling seven-game series. And thanks to the seventh-place Philadelphia 76ers beating the second-place Boston Celtics in the first round, the Knicks are the first three seed or lower team to have home court advantage through the first three rounds since seeding began in 1984.

This matchup is ironic in that throughout most of the regular season, the prevailing sentiment was that the Pistons or Celtics would come out of the East. Instead, it'll be the Cavs and Knicks who will battle it out for the honor. Funny how that works. 

In the last round, I was guilty of giving the Sixers too much credit. I really thought they would give the Knicks all they could handle. About the only thing the Knicks handled were the brooms they used to sweep them out the playoffs. New York treated Philly like they were a bunch of G-Leaguers. Make no mistake about it: the Cavs are no G-League team. They are the toughest opponent the Knicks have faced so far in these playoffs. Conversely, the Knicks are the toughest opponent the Cavs have faced so far in these playoffs. 

How tough? Both teams combined to have the top 10 plus / minus Eastern Conference players in the postseason. Jalen Brunson leads the way with a plus 162, while Jarrett Allen of the Cavs brings up the rear with a plus 44. And that means we're in for one helluva conference finals. Anyone predicting a short series is sniffing something that would be illegal, even in Colorado. 

Before we get to the keys for the Knicks, a final thought on the Pistons. Watching these bullies get their comeuppance was truly gratifying. Detroit thought they could resurrect the Bad Boys of the late ‘80s and early ‘90s. Instead, they earned themselves a trip to the golf course. Bottom line: It takes more than intimidation and hard fouls to win a championship in today's NBA; it takes talent. In the end, the Pistons didn't have enough of it.

Now for the keys. 

1. A healthy OG Anunoby. It goes without saying that Anunoby must be fully recovered from the right hamstring pull he sustained in game two of the Sixers series. The Knicks will need his elite-level defense. If he is not at full strength or - worse - re-injures himself, New York will have its hands full contending with Cleveland's backcourt.

2. Win the turnover battle. The Cavs have committed the second-most turnovers this postseason, averaging 16.6 per game, with James Harden the worst offender at 4.8 per game. Meanwhile, the Knicks have committed the fifth-fewest turnovers at 13.3 per game. That trend needs to continue, and the best way for that to happen is for New York to pressure both Donovan Mitchell and Harden whenever they have the ball. Expect Mikal Bridges to guard Mitchell, while Anunoby gets Harden.

3. Contain Mobley and Allen. Unlike Joel Embiid, who was, for all intents and purposes, useless, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen can score and defend. While not as physical as Jalen Duren and Tobias Harris, they can still cause trouble for New York in the paint. The best way to deal with them is for Karl-Anthony Towns to continue being the point center. That will force Kenny Atkinson to bring one of his big men out to the perimeter which is what the Sixers were forced to do in the last round. And that will free up Mitchell Robinson to grab as many offensive rebounds as he can. Expect Mike Brown to play both centers together at times in this series. It is the one matchup New York can truly exploit.

4. Hit the open threes. The Knicks are leading all NBA teams this postseason in three-point shooting at 40.8 percent. The Cavs are 7th at 34 percent. While Cleveland's defense has improved somewhat in the playoffs, they're still nowhere near elite level, meaning New York will get plenty of open looks from beyond the arc. They need to bury as many of them as possible. 

Last year, the Knicks blew a late fourth-quarter, double-digit lead against the Pacers and never recovered. I don't expect they will repeat that same mistake. In fact, I've been impressed with the level of maturity and poise this team has exhibited throughout these playoffs. After the Sixers series, there were no wild celebrations or chest thumping. It's as if they realize what the goal is and what they will have to do to achieve it. The only other past local-area teams that have displayed that much focus were the '86 Mets and Giants and the '94 Rangers.

Something to keep in mind: prior to this postseason, only five teams had advanced to the conference finals while being extended a full seven games through the first two rounds since the NBA went to a best of seven format in all four rounds in 2003. Their record was 1-4. The Celtics won in '08, while the Mavericks ('03), Suns ('06), Raptors ('10) and Nuggets ('20) all lost. The point is playing that many games that early in the playoffs takes a lot out of a team.

To sum up: this will be a long series. Both teams have multiple ways they can beat you, both teams have very good benches, and both teams are well coached. The difference is on defense, where the Knicks have the clear advantage. It's been 27 years since this team last made the finals. That streak comes to an end here. New York in six. 

And now for the Western Conference Finals.

San Antonio over Oklahoma City in six. I know I said OKC would repeat as champions in my last preview, but that was before I saw what Victor Wembanyama did to Rudy Gobert of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Put succinctly, the NBA has never seen anyone with Wemby's skillset in well over a generation. He's the equivalent of what baseball calls a five-tool player. Imagine a player who can defend like Bill Russell, block shots like Hakeem Olajuwon, rebound like Moses Malone, pass like John Stockton and shoot like Steph Curry. The last player to dominate his sport the way Wemby does was Wayne Gretzky. That's why I'm picking the Spurs to win this series and quite possibly the title.

As with my last three previews, if the Knicks advance, I'll preview the finals; if not, whoever wins the West will win the title. 

Knicks Take Care of Business

The New York Knicks went into Cleveland last night up three games to one over the Cavaliers, needing just one more win to wrap up their series. And rather than punt it to a game six, they took care of business. It's nice to know there's one New York team that knows how to close out an opponent. And, yes, that was meant as a dig at you know who.

For the first time since 2013, the Knicks are in the second round of the NBA playoffs. And for the first time since 1999 - the last year they went to the finals - they won a best of seven series in five games or less.

To say this was a monumental accomplishment would be an understatement. I picked the Knicks in six, but even I didn't expect this kind of domination. At no point in game five - a game which the Cavs desperately needed to win to stay alive - did the Knicks trail. In fact, the closest Cleveland got to extending their season was when they pulled to within six (90-84) with 8:10 to go in the 4th quarter. For the next 3:58, the Cavs were held scoreless until Darius Garland - who had an abysmal series along with Donovan Mitchell - sank two free throws to make the score 96-86. Cleveland would not score again until Mitchell hit a jump shot with 3:06 remaining to make it 100-88. That's five minutes without a basket and only two measly free throws. Think about that.

Everyone contributed in this series. Jalen Brunson put on a clinic directing the Knicks offense. Mitchell Robinson had his way with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. R.J. Barrett redeemed himself over the last two games, putting up 26 and 21 points respectively. Immanuel Quickly and Obi Toppin came off the bench to provide much needed depth scoring; the latter playing the entire second half of game five after Julius Randle re-injured his left ankle late in the 2nd quarter.

And then there was Josh Hart, quite possibly the best trade deadline acquisition in franchise history. In a word, he was unconscious. For the series, he averaged 11.6 points and 7.8 rebounds, including twelve in game five, where he played all but 1:46. Since his arrival from Portland in February, the Knicks are 21-9.

New York out-rebounded Cleveland 227-186 for the series; and their bench outscored the Cavaliers bench 145-94, and that was with Quentin Grimes not starting in games four and five due to a shoulder injury he sustained in game three.

I haven't seen such tenacity - to steal a phrase from Clyde Frazier - from a Knicks team since the heydays of Patrick Ewing and Charles Oakley back in the '90s. They are without a doubt the hardest working team in the league. If they don't bring you out of your seat, it's probably because you're dead and you don't know it.

I rarely say this about any team I root for out of fear of jinxing them, but this Knicks team is capable of going deep in the playoffs. With the Milwaukee Bucks, the number one seed in the Eastern Conference, getting knocked off by the the eighth seed Miami Heat, New York has the home court advantage in the second round, thanks to the NBA's refusal to re-seed.

That doesn't mean they're a lock for the conference finals, mind you. The Heat, after all, were one win away from going to the finals last postseason. Let's face it, Jimmy Butler makes Donovan Mitchell look like a sixth man; he torched the Bucks defense in games four and five to the tune of 56 and 42 points respectively. Tom Thibodeau - who should be coach of the year - will have his hands full devising a defensive strategy to contain him. And we still don't know the extent of Randle's injury. If he's not a hundred percent, that will affect how the series plays out.

But for now, the Knicks can bask in the glory of what they accomplished in this series. They were the better team and they showed it. Two years ago, they were cowed by an Atlanta Hawks team that was deeper and more resilient. Now the tables have turned. They are the deeper and more resilient team. 

How deep and resilient, we are about to find out.

Knicks Playoff Preview (Round One)

It was two years ago that the Knicks entered the playoffs as the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, and were quickly dispatched by the fifth seed Atlanta Hawks in five games. To say that was a painful loss would be putting it mildly.

But as the Monkees once sang, that was then, this is now. This year's Knicks enter the playoffs as the fifth seed in the East, but unlike that 2020-21 team, they are a lot deeper and a lot more potent. No longer are they depended solely on the offensive prowess of Julius Randle. They have other options like Obi Toppin, Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley who should win the Sixth Man of the Year award. 

But by far the biggest additions to this Knicks roster have been Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart; the former signed as a free agent over the summer; the latter acquired at the trade deadline for Cam Reddish. Brunson gives this team what it's lacked since the glory days of the '90s: a bonafide point guard who can run the offense. And Hart provides much needed depth and energy coming off the bench. Since his arrival from Portland back in February, the Knicks are 17-8.

It's hard not to love this team. Coached by Tom Thibodeau, it's arguably, the hardest working group of players in the NBA. There is no load management here. If you're healthy enough to play, you suit up. Period. And in a league that over-indulges its stars, often to the detriment of its fans, that's a breath of fresh air.

So how will this resilient bunch fare against the fourth seed Cleveland Cavaliers? Glad you asked. It all comes down to Donovan Mitchell, the elite-level guard who supposedly was headed to New York during the offseason. That was before Cleveland stepped in and upped their offer to the Utah Jazz.

Knicks fans at the time were livid with Leon Rose for fumbling the ball at the one-yard line. But in retrospect, not closing that deal turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Had the Knicks landed Mitchell it likely would've cost them R.J. Barrett, Mitchell Robinson and Toppin, plus three of their four unprotected first round draft picks. Leaving aside the picks for a minute, can you imagine what this team would look like without those three players? Not to mention that with Mitchell on the team, it's doubtful the Knicks would've signed Brunson. That also means no Hart at the deadline.

Below is a comparison of what the Knicks would've looked like with and without Mitchell.

Without Donovan Mitchell

Starters:

Mitchell Robison C

Julius Randle PF

R.J. Barrett SF

Jalen Brunson PG

Quentin Grimes SG

Bench:

Isaiah Hartenstein C

Obi Toppin PF

Immanuel Quickley SF

Josh Hart SG

Deuce McBride PG

With Donovan Mitchell

Starters:

Hartenstein C

Randle PF

Quickley SF

Mitchell SG

McBride PG

Bench:

Jericho Sims C

Grimes G

Derrick Rose G

Seriously, which team would you rather have? Before you answer that, consider that the Knicks, without Mitchell, finished only four games behind the Cavaliers in the standings. While it's clear that the starting lineup would be slightly better with Mitchell, the bench, sans Grimes, would suffer greatly. Imagine a Tom Thibodeau team without a reliable bench. That is ostensibly what the Knicks would be had Rose agreed to Utah's demands last summer. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make.

Now onto the matchup.

For the Knicks to prevail, they cannot let Mitchell and Darius Garland dominate the way they are capable of doing. Both players average over 20 points per game, with Mitchell averaging 28. Assuming Randle's ankle is sufficiently healed, the Knicks will have a decided edge in the front court over Evan Mobley and Lamar Stevens. If it isn't, Toppin will likely get the start. All that is moot, however, if they can't contain the Cavs backcourt.

During the regular season, the Knicks were fourth best in the NBA in turnovers, averaging just 13 per game. Against the Cavs, they averaged 15.5. The Knicks were also third best in offensive rebounds, averaging 12.6 per game. The latter is where Robinson and Hartenstein will earn their paychecks.

I expect Thibodeau to rotate his players and use his bench effectively. That means Quickley and Hart will get a ton of minutes. The Cavs, as loaded as their starting lineup is, will not be able to handle the Knicks depth. New York took three out of four from Cleveland during the regular season, and I see nothing that makes me think that trend won't continue in the postseason.

Prediction: Knicks in six.