"As long as we're here, we might as well win. There's no guarantee we're going to be back."
- Rangers captain Dave Maloney, prior to the 1979 Stanley Cup Finals.
This is the first time since I started this blog that I will be doing a finals preview of the Knicks. Typically by June, I'm either writing about another failed postseason by the Rangers or speculating on when the Mets will fold. So this is special for me. It's also special for millions of long-suffering Knicks fans, some of whom weren't even born the last time they made the finals.
It's fitting that the Knicks will be facing the San Antonio Spurs in this series; 27 years ago they lost to the Spurs in five, in what would become the first of five NBA titles for San Antonio over a 15 year period. Contrary to what each team's respective fanbase is boasting, this will not be a short series. Indeed, I would be shocked if it didn't go at least six games.
Since Victor Wembanyama came into the league three years ago, each team has won three games on their home court. New York's win in the NBA Cup was on a neutral site. Aside from that Cup final game, the Knicks have had two significant and memorable wins against the Spurs: a 117-114 thriller on Christmas Day last season and a 114-89 rout March 1 this season; the latter one of only three losses the Spurs had from February 1 through the end of the regular season; the other two were against the Denver Nuggets.
This postseason, New York and San Antonio have the two best defensive ratings: the Knicks at 104.4 and the Spurs at 106.1; the Knicks are shooting 40 percent from three while the Spurs are shooting 36.5 percent from three; and the Knicks bench is averaging 31.3 points per game vs 32.6 points per game for the Spurs. These two team couldn't be more close if they shared a sleeping bag.
If there's one advantage the Knicks have going into the finals, it's that they've played four fewer games this postseason than the Spurs. In the history of the NBA playoffs, teams that are coming off a four-game sweep are 20-4 against teams that needed a full seven games. Since May 4, the Knicks have played a total of eight games; the Spurs have played 13. The Knicks will be the more rested team in this series.
And they will need every bit of that rest in order to end their 53 year drought. The Spurs may not be the 2017 Golden State Warriors, but they are definitely NOT the Cavs or the Sixers. They represent the toughest challenge the Knicks will face in these playoffs. There will be no 30 point blowouts. Every game is likely to go down to the wire. If you're a fan of hotly contested series, you're in for one helluva treat.
The prevailing sentiment among the so-called experts is that this series will come down to Wembanyama vs. Jalen Brunson. After all, those are the two best players on their respective teams. Far be it for me to disagree with the experts but in my opinion, this series will come down to the wings: Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart vs. Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox and Julian Champagne. Off the bench, Landry Shamet and Deuce McBride will have to hold their own against Keldon Johnson and Dylan Harper.
With that being said, though, here are the four keys to the Knicks winning their first title since 1973.
1. KAT needs to stay out of foul trouble. Regardless of how many minutes per game Mitchell Robinson plays in this series - and the assumption is he will dress - look for the Spurs to target Karl-Anthony Towns on defense. It will be up to KAT not to take stupid fouls. To be effective, he has to be on the court, not on the bench.
2. Knicks need to make their threes. As I stated above, the Knicks are shooting 40 percent from downtown in the playoffs. That must continue in this series. If they go cold, the Spurs will win. The best way to insure that doesn't happen is by moving the ball around. The Knicks were 43-11 during the regular season when they had 25 or more assists.
3. Make Wemby work on offense and defense. Imagine a player with the physical attributes of Hakeem Olajuwon and the shooting prowess of Steph Curry. That's who Wembanyama is. But as great as he is, the Oklahoma City Thunder still managed to limit his impact. By using a combination of Anunoby, Hart and Robinson, the Knicks hope they can wear him out. And on the other end of the court, if KAT can pull Wemby away from the basket, that will improve the Knicks chances of scoring in the paint. He can't block what he can't get to.
4. Avoid costly turnovers. Of the four teams that advanced to the conference finals, only the Thunder averaged fewer turnovers per game than the Knicks. In what promises to be a tight series, New York can't afford to be careless with the ball.
To sum up, after the Rangers finally won the Stanley Cup in 1994, Sam Rosen said it would last a lifetime. Knicks fans have waited more than a lifetime to celebrate another championship. Their waiting will soon be over.
Without question, this is the most talented roster this franchise has assembled since the glory days of Clyde and Willis. Despite the trolling of the anti-New York media, these players have earned their way to a finals berth; and in another two weeks, they will have earned their way to an NBA title.
Knicks in six.
