Coming off an impressive five-game series win over the fourth-seed Cleveland Cavaliers, the fifth-seed New York Knicks begin a best of seven series against the eighth-seed Miami Heat Sunday afternoon at Madison Square Garden. At stake for the men in orange and blue is the first trip to the Eastern Conference finals since 2000. That was also be the last time the Knicks beat the Heat (4-3 in conference semifinals).
But while the Heat may be an eighth seed, they are not playing like one. Led by Jimmy Butler, who put up 56 and 42 points respectively in the last two games of their first round series against the number one seed Milwaukee Bucks, the Heat were one win away from going to the finals last season. A case can be made that this team is a legitimate title contender. It would behoove the Knicks to not take them lightly.
Both teams have been bitten by the injury bug. For the Knicks, Julius Randle re-injured his left ankle in game five of the Cavs series, while Quentin Grimes injured his left shoulder in game three. Both are listed as day-to-day and are vital to any hopes New York has of advancing.
For the Heat, Victor Oladipo - torn patellar tendon in the left knee - and Tyler Herro - injured hand - are both out for the series. Between the two, Herro is the bigger loss. He was second on the team in scoring during the regular season, averaging 20.1 points per game. For a team that wasn't terribly deep to begin with, not having him in the lineup will hurt.
Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer, for some reason, elected not to have anyone guard Butler. The result was that the all-star forward ran roughshod all over the Bucks. Butler averaged 37.6 points in the series. It is hard to imagine Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau making that same mistake.
But even with Thibodeau sicking someone on him, Butler will still get his points. That's okay, so long as he doesn't dominate the way he did against the Bucks. 25-30 is manageable; 35-40 and the Knicks will be in trouble.
As in the last round, the key to the Knicks success will be their depth. If Randle and Grimes are good to go, the Heat will be outmanned. If either are hobbled, though, this series will be up for grabs. Mitchell Robinson will play a huge role in the middle, as will Josh Hart and Immanuel Quickley coming off the bench. The Heat will try to contain Jalen Brunson; ultimately they will fail.
I expect this series to go the distance, with both teams winning at least one game in the other's arena. Barring overconfidence on their part, New York should prevail.
Prediction: Knicks in seven.
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