But while the Bruins may be the odds-on favorites going into the playoffs, there are a couple of potential roadblocks that could upend their dreams of hoisting the Cup. For starters, the President's Trophy curse. Turns out it's a real thing.
Since the award was first introduced in the 1985-86 season, only eight teams have won both the Trophy and the Cup. And since the lockout of 2004-05, there have been only two: the 2007-08 Red Wings and the 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks. And the Blackhawks, it should be noted, only had to play 48 regular-season games that season thanks to another league-imposed lockout. The point is it's hard to go at full throttle for an entire 82-game regular season and still have enough left in the tank for another potential 27 grueling postseason games.
But the biggest concern for Boston may have nothing to do with whether or not they have what it takes to survive a nine-month long marathon. The fact is going into the playoffs, the Bruins are the third oldest team in the NHL with an average age of 29.9. Only the Washington Capitals (30) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (31.5) are older. And neither of those two teams qualified for the postseason. If the Bruins were to win the Cup, they'd be the second oldest team in the last 25 years to do so. The 2001-02 Red Wings currently hold the record at 30.5.
So, you see, there's hope for the other fifteen teams after all.
Just as I did last year, I'll start with my team, the New York Rangers, and work my way down. As always, take what is said here with a very large grain of salt.
Eastern Conference:
New York vs. New Jersey: Anybody who saw the Devils as a legit Cup contender prior to the start of the season needs to produce the receipts right now. Yours truly had them as a "close but no cigar" team back in October. Led by Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, the Devils are the fastest team in the East and the third fastest in the league. Only the Edmonton Oilers Oilers and the Colorado Avalanche are faster. They were tied with the Buffalo Sabres for the third most goals scored this season with 291, and their goal differential of 65 was surpassed only by the Dallas Stars (67) and the Bruins (128).
I won't mince words here. This is the toughest opponent the Rangers could've drawn in the first round. Unlike last season, when they faced a flawed Pittsburgh team, the Devils have no discernible flaws to exploit. Meaning they're not likely to implode the way the Pens did. Vitek Vanecek may not be Vezina trophy material, but he's hardly Louis Domingue.
To beat the Devils, the Rangers are going to have to be incredibly disciplined with the puck. No reckless cross-ice passes at the blue line that can be intercepted and turned into scoring chances the other way. No selfless play in the offensive zone. If they have the shot, they must take it and not pass it up. They also can't afford to fall behind in these games. Unlike most teams that score early and then go into defend mode, the Devils are always looking to score the next goal. They have one gear in their transmission box: fifth. In their last meeting, the Rangers trailed 2-0 after the first period, and even though they outplayed the Devils over the final forty minutes, they were unable to get the tying goal passed Vanecek. Getting off to a good start must be priority one.
Priority two will be special teams. During the regular season, the Rangers power play was seventh best in the league at 24.1 percent. And while their penalty kill was only middle of the pack for most of the regular season, over the last 16 games, they've given up only three goals while shorthanded 35 times. Prorated, that would be good enough for second best in the league at 85.7 percent. Only the Bruins at 87.3 percent had a higher percentage.
On paper, this Rangers team is better than the one that went to the conference finals last year and was six wins away from their first Cup championship since 1994. They have, arguably, the deepest roster of any team in the postseason, with 20 plus goal scorers scattered throughout their top nine. They also have the better goaltender in the series. Over his last two months, Igor Shesterkin has posted save percentages of .932 and .941 respectively.
But here's the thing: paper doesn't win playoff series; players do. And to win this series, the Rangers best players - Zibanaejad, Panarin, Fox, Kreider, Shesterkin, Trouba and the Kids - are all going to have to be better than the Devils best players - Hughes, Hischier, Meier, Hamilton, Bratt and Mercer. It's that simple.
One caveat to consider. During the regular season, the Rangers had 13 overtime or shootout loses. Among playoff teams, only the Dallas Stars (14) had more. If just six of those OT / SO losses had been wins, the Rangers would have the home ice advantage in this series. That may or may not come back to haunt them.
That aside, though, I expect this series to go the distance, and it's not being overly cliché to predict that the team that makes the fewest mistakes will likely advance to the next round. Rangers in seven.
Boston vs. Florida: The Puddy Tats had a chance to avoid catching the Bruins in the first round. All they had to do was beat the Carolina Hurricanes at home and they'd be on their way to Raleigh next week. But in typical fashion, they flubbed it. Last season's President's Trophy winner now goes up against the real McCoy. The Bruins had the season of a lifetime. They are loaded at every position, and even if they don't go all the way, they have more than enough to throttle the Panthers. I would be shocked if this went more than five games. Bruins in five.
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay: A month ago I would've bet the ranch on the Bolts. But Kyle Dubas did a great job at the trade deadline transforming the Maple Leafs from a one trick pony into a deeper and tougher team. Ilya Samsonov gives Toronto something they haven't had in years: solid goaltending. And let's be honest, this is not the same Lightning team that went to three consecutive finals and won two Cups in a row. Leafs in six.
Carolina vs. Islanders: Am I being too sarcastic to suggest that watching paint dry would be more entertaining than watching these two offensively-challenged overachievers knocked the shit out of each other for a week and a half? The Isles do have the better goaltending, so that should give them a fighting chance. Not having Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty will eventually catch up with the Canes, but not in this round. Hurricanes in six.
Western Conference:
Vegas vs. Winnipeg: The Golden Knights have proven a lot of skeptics wrong this season - myself included. Without one of their top forwards in Mark Stone and with a revolving door for goaltending, they are the number one seed in the West. Congrats to Bruce Cassidy, who did a helluva job behind the bench. They probably don't have the horses to get past Colorado and Edmonton but they have more than enough to dispose of the Jets. Golden Knights in five.
Colorado vs. Seattle: Not having the services of Gabriel Landeskog for the playoffs will severely test the depth of a team that already lost its number two center Nazem Kadri to the Calgary Flames during the off season. If I were the Avs, I'd be a little concerned about facing a Kraken team that can put the puck in the next and, in only its second year of existence, is playing with house money. Avalanche in seven.
Edmonton vs. Los Angeles: Want to hear something crazy? Over the last seven games, the Oilers have given up a paltry six goals. No that wasn't a misprint. The team with the best offense on Planet Earth has goal's against average of under a goal per game in their last seven. Are we witnessing the beginning of the NHL's next dynasty? Oilers in five.
Dallas vs. Minnesota: Last season, the Stars took the Calgary Flames to a game seven in the first round before finally losing to them in OT. This season, they're one of the best teams in the NHL with a potent offense and a solid defense. The Wild will be without Joel Eriksson Ek for at least the first four games of the series. That maybe four too many. Stars in five.
Once the first round is over, I'll make my predictions for round two.
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