John Harbaugh was having a pretty uneventful first few months on the job. He had assembled his coaching staff, signed some notable free agents like Isaiah Likely, Tremaine Edmunds, Jason Sanders, Jordan Stout, Calvin Austin, Darnell Mooney and Cam Jones, and was preparing for what many Giants fans are hoping will be the first of many NFL Drafts as head coach and de facto president of football operations.
Then two days ago, Dexter Lawrence decided to spoil Harbaugh's honeymoon. The 340 pound defensive tackle, who was the 17th pick in the 2019 Draft, demanded a trade. Suffice to say the timing could not have been worse. While no one knows for sure what Harbaugh will do with the 5th pick, hold onto it or trade back to get additional picks, the general consensus was that he was leaning towards keeping Lawrence rather than moving him for additional draft capital. Now those plans appear to be up in the air. If Harbaugh can't satisfy Lawrence's contract demand - and the assumption is he's looking for a new one - he might have no option but to accommodate his wishes.
So, what would Lawrence fetch in a trade? If last year's Quinnen Williams deal is any indication, then the Giants should expect a first and second round pick, plus a defensive player. Of course there's one small problem with that analogy: the trade between the Jets and the Cowboys was made at the deadline, which is typically a seller's market. No such market exists here. Just the opposite, in fact. Every team in the league knows the spot the Giants are in. The last thing they're going to do is make it easy for them. If the best Harbaugh can get is a first round pick for Lawrence, he should take it and run.
Of course he could wait until Draft Day. There's always a team out there looking to bolster their interior defense. And if Harbaugh can get an additional pick on top of a first for Lawrence, it might be worth the gamble. However, the reverse is also true; teams might try and lowball him, hoping to get a steal. In that event, Harbaugh would be up a creak without a paddle.
Lastly, Harbaugh could always call Lawrence's bluff. After all, he is signed through 2027 to a very team-friendly contract. $26.9 million may be below market value for a player with his talent, but it's considerably better than nothing, which is what Lawrence would get if he sat out the season.
But does Harbaugh really want a player on his roster who's disgruntled, especially one as important as Lawrence? While he may have had an off year in 2025, he is still considered one of the better defensive tackles in the game. And for a team that struggled mightily against the run last season, I'm not sure Harbaugh wants that kind of headache in his first year on the sidelines.
So the choices appear to be a) pay him what he wants, then write the contract in a way so that the cap hit is less than what it is now; b) get what you can for him in a trade, even if it's less than what he's worth; or c) call his bluff and hope he doesn't sit out or tank.
If I had to guess, I'd say Harbaugh opts for Plan A. At 28, Lawrence still has several good years left before his skills begin to diminish. A three-year deal at $105 million, with the first two years guaranteed, should do it. Both sides get what they want. The Giants solidify their defensive line with a manageable cap hit, and Lawrence gets the security he's been looking for.
If Harbaugh still needs to shed more salary, he can always trade Kayvon Thibodeaux. Indeed, prior to Lawrence's demand, the smart money was on the Giants moving Thibodeux on Draft Day for a second round pick. Now that's almost a certainty.
You know what they say: the best laid plans of mice and men.
No comments:
Post a Comment