Back in May, I wrote that there were some "interesting parallels" between Chris Drury hiring Mike Sullivan and Neil Smith hiring Mike Keenan.
In the 1991-92 season, the Rangers won the Presidents' trophy but did not win the Cup. They struggled mightily the following season, missing the playoffs. Under Keenan, the Blueshirts went on to win their first Cup in 54 years.In the 2023-24 season, the Rangers won the Presidents' trophy but failed to win the Cup. They struggled mightily the following season, missing the playoffs. No doubt Drury is banking on lightning striking twice.
Of course for a franchise that has won exactly one Stanley Cup championship since World War II, Drury is going to need more than lightning striking twice. He might need a category five hurricane.
That being said, I thought Sullivan was the right choice at the right time for this team. While he hasn't made the playoffs since the 2021-22 season, he is well respected and appears to have the right demeanor for a veteran roster whose window is still open, if barely.
However, there's a difference between being the right choice and being a miracle worker. Two seasons ago, the Blueshirts overachieved under Peter Laviolette. The following season, they crashed and burned and Laviolette was fired. For Sullivan to succeed, three things will have to happen.
The power play has to improve. Under assistant coach David Quinn, the Penguins power play went from 15.3 percent (24th) in 2023-24 to 25.8 percent (4th) in 2024-25. Last season, the Rangers power play finished 17.6 percent (21st). The hope is that Quinn can replicate what he did in Pittsburgh for a team that missed the playoffs by six points.
The bottom six has to produce. The prevailing sentiment is that the top six will pull their weight. Mika Zibanejad should benefit from playing a full season with J.T. Miller, and Artemi Panarin will once again lead the team in scoring. It's the bottom six that is the concern. If Noah Laba, who made the roster after a solid preseason, is the real deal, the Rangers may finally have a legit 3C.
Cut down on the goals against. In 2023-24, the Rangers allowed a 5th best 226 goals against; in 2024-25, they allowed an 11th worst 255. Among teams that made the playoffs last season, only the Montreal Canadiens gave up more goals (265). Signing Vladislav Gavrikov to play alongside Adam Fox should give New York its best defensive pairing since Ryan McDonagh and Dan Girardi a decade ago. Carson Soucy, though, remains a question mark.
Prognosis: Despite a so-so preseason, I remain optimistic about this team's ability to bounce back. No, I do not think they will win the Metro, much less the Presidents' Trophy, but I do think they will make the postseason; they have too much talent not to. Based on where they finished last season, if they manage to avoid another November swoon, they could win an additional five to seven games, which should be good enough for third place.
Prediction: 45-30-7, 97 points.
Below are my predictions for the rest of the league. As per usual, I will pick the top three teams in each division, both wild cards for each conference, and the close, but no cigar contingent.
Eastern Conference:
Metropolitan Division:
Carolina Hurricanes: Year after year, the hockey "experts" underestimate this team; and year after year, they are proven wrong.
New Jersey Devils: Losing Jack Hughes down the stretch killed them last season. If he stays healthy, they should challenge for the division lead.
New York Rangers: Mike Sullivan and his coaching staff will fix what went wrong last season.
Atlantic Division:
Toronto Maple Leafs: As strange as it may seem, losing Mitch Marner will help them, especially in the postseason.
Tampa Bay Lightning: They may have been eliminated by the Panthers in the first round, but this is still very much an elite team with a Hall of Fame coach behind the bench.
Florida Panthers: Losing Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov to injuries - the latter for the season - is a helluva gut punch. But thanks to Bill Zito, this is the deepest roster in the NHL.
Wild Cards:
Washington Capitals: They overachieved last season; I doubt that happens again this season.
Ottawa Senators: This is a good, young core that has a bright future, led by Brady Tkachuk, Matthew's younger brother.
Close, but no cigar:
Montreal Canadiens: Someone needs to explain to me how this organization gave up two first round picks for Noah Dobson. Me thinks Jeff Gorton strikes again.
New York Islanders: Their future looks bright with Matthew Schaefer; it's their present that is the problem.
Western Conference:
Central Division:
Dallas Stars: They have one of the deepest forward groups in the NHL. Had it not been for Pete DeBoer, they likely would've gone to the finals last season.
Colorado Avalanche: Their top four players are arguably the best in the league; it's their depth that could prove problematic come the playoffs.
St. Louis Blues: Everyone is sleeping on this team, which makes no sense given their roster and the fact that they have one of the best goalies in the league.
Pacific Division:
Vegas Golden Knights: Kelly McCrimmon went all out during the offseason to sign Mitch Marner. This could be the most talented roster he has ever assembled.
Edmonton Oilers: Connor McDavid has basically given his GM two years to assemble a team around him capable of winning the Cup. Good luck with that.
Los Angeles Kings: A good mix of youth and experience will get this team across the threshold.
Wild Cards:
Minnesota Wild: Bill Guerin was smart to lock up Kirill Kaprizov. Now he has the cap space to build around him.
Utah Mammoth: Something special is brewing in Salt Lake City.
Close, but no cigar:
Winnipeg Jets: On the bright side, we won't have to watch them choke in the postseason.
Anaheim Ducks: Chris Kreider will re-discover his scoring touch. It won't be enough for his new team.
Playoffs:
Eastern Conference Finals: Lightning over Hurricanes 4-2
Western Conference Finals: Stars over Golden Knights 4-3
Stanley Cup Finals: Stars over Lightning 4-3
Presidents' Trophy: Vegas Golden Knights
Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid, Oilers
Hart Trophy: Nikita Kucherov, Lightning
Norris Trophy: Quinn Hughes, Canucks
Vezina Trophy: Igor Shestrkin, Rangers
Jack Adams Award: Glen Gulutzan, Stars
Conn Smythe Trophy: Mikko Rantanen, Stars
No comments:
Post a Comment