Mets At the All-Star Break

Last year, the New York Mets went into the All-Star break with a record of 49-46, 12.5 games out of first place; this year at the break, their record stands at 55-42, a half game out of first. 

At first glance, you'd probably conclude that this Mets team is much better poised to win than last year's. But when you check under the hood, that conclusion seems a bit premature. I'll explain.

The 2024 Mets got off to a dreadful start. On June 2, they were 24-35, mired in fourth place in the National League East. CitiField looked more like a morgue than a major league ballpark. Slowly, but surely, the boys from Flushing clawed their way back into playoff contention. But it wasn't until late August that the Amazins really took off. They went 20-9 down the stretch to clinch a Wild Card spot.

This year, the Mets got off to a great start. On June 12, they were 45-24, five and a half games up on the Philadelphia Phillies. Since then, they've gone 10-18. Their bullpen, once the best in baseball, has struggled mightily. Apart from Edwin Diaz, there's not one reliever Carlos Mendoza can rely on to get a crucial out.

Reed Garrett, who had an ERA of 0.95 on June 10, has allowed nine earned runs in his last nine and a third innings. Though to be fair, eight of those earned runs came in two games; and in one of those games, he failed to record an out.

Ryne Stanek, who had an ERA of 1.04 in the month of May, has posted ERAs of 6.23 and 7.36 in June and July respectively. Mendoza, for some strange reason, elected to go to him in the 8th inning of a game in which the Mets were ahead 1-0 and David Peterson was in complete control; he then promptly surrendered a two-run home run.

Huascar Brazobán, like Garrett, got off to a very good start. In May, his ERA was 1.26. In June, it was 13.5, and in July it is currently 5.40.

Starting to notice a pattern? Hopefully David Stearns is. Because this bullpen isn't remotely good enough for a team with championship expectations. And let's get one thing straight: when you drop $765 million on a single player, the expectation is that at some point you're going to win a championship. While it's true that Steve Cohen may be an incurable optimist, he didn't get to be this successful by throwing away his money. 

But the bullpen isn't the only area of concern. Put succinctly, there are four bats in this lineup that, with a few rare exceptions, have been pretty close to automatic outs this season. Tyrone Taylor is a vacuum cleaner in center field; at home plate, he's utterly useless; Luis Torrens (.206) and Hayden Senger (.174) are outstanding defensive catchers who can barely hit AAA pitching; Mendoza has tried three different players at 3rd base and so far, none have hit well enough to win the position outright. As for the DH spot, the Mets would do better holding a telethon. Face it: as good as Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil have been, there's no way this team will win the World Series with that many holes in the batting order.

With the return of Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea, Mendoza will have a much better starting rotation in the second half. The only question is how deep can these starters go? So far, only Peterson has demonstrated he can go more than six innings. Clay Holmes is basically a five-inning pitcher, and Senga is injury prone. In other words, whichever starter the Mets send to the mound, the bullpen will likely be the difference between winning and losing.

With that in mind, Stearns would do well to focus his efforts on fortifying the pen. Middle relievers will cost less than a starter. As far as adding a bat, Harrison Bader could be had for a mid-level prospect. He's currently batting .254 with 11 home runs and 34 runs batted in for the Minnesota Twins. Last year, he hit .236 with 12 HRs and 51 RBIs for the Amazins. Assuming Francisco Alvarez gets recalled sometime this month, the hope is he can rediscover the swing he had two years ago when he smacked 25 homers. 

The good news is that even with all their flaws, the Mets are only a half game out of first. That's because the Phillies have their own flaws. It wouldn't take much tweaking by Stearns to put this team on the glide path. The issue isn't who's available but what the asking price will be. If the Mets can get a player or two with team control without having to give up a top prospect, they should absolutely do it. But if the asking price means gutting their farm system, I would pass.

On the whole, the Mets have had a good first half. They seem to have weathered the worst of that storm in mid to late June. And they are still the front-runners in the National League East. Can they win it all? That depends on what Stearns does over the next couple of weeks.