Mets in a Free Fall

"Tough stretch, no sugarcoating it. I didn’t see this coming. I’m as frustrated as everybody else. We will get through this period. Our injured pitching will come back over the next few weeks. It is unlikely the team’s hitting with RISP will continue at this weak pace. Keep the faith!" -  Steven A. Cohen, owner of the New York Mets

With all due respect to Steve, this is not just a tough stretch. A tough stretch would be going 2-7. It's hard to fathom, but on June 12, the Mets were 45-24, twenty-one games over .500 and solidly in first place in the National League East. After yesterday's loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, they're now 48-37, and the only reason they're a game and a half out of first is because the Philadelphia Phillies haven't exactly taken off.

The Mets are 3-13 in their last 16 games. In colloquial terms that's called a free fall. And the worst part about this "stretch" is that they haven't been remotely competitive in most of their losses. In the three-game sweep against the Pirates, New York was outscored 30-4, their most lopsided series loss in their 64 years as a franchise. Given how many bad teams this organization has fielded over its history, that is a damnable stat.

They're not hitting; they're not pitching; in short, nothing is going right. Ironically, the only player who's exceeding expectations is Juan Soto. For the month of June, the $765 million dollar man hit 11 home runs, drove in 20 and batted .322 with an OPS of 1.196. Conversely, Francisco Lindor - the leadoff hitter - had 4 homers, 10 RBIs and batted .204 with an OPS of just .628.

It's one thing to keep the faith; Mets fans are experts at that. It's quite another to look in the mirror and know the truth. Despite its top-level talent, this team has more holes in it than a block of Swiss cheese. The starting rotation has been ravaged by injuries. Kodai Senga, Sean Maneae, Frankie Montas and Griffin Canning have all spent time on the IR. Canning is lost for the year after rupturing his left Achilles against the Atlanta Braves last week. 

The bullpen, which had been the best in baseball for most of the season, since June 13 has sprung more leaks than the Titanic and Lusitania combined. Over the last 16 games, their combined ERA is 6.59. Apart from Edwin Diaz, there isn't a single reliever Carlos Mendoza can trust in a tight spot.

And contrary to what Cohen alluded to in his tweet, the RISP issue is not a recent thing. It's plagued this team all season long. The Mets are batting just .217 with runners in scoring position. Only the Chicago White Sox at .208 are worse. To put that in perspective, the Phillies, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers - the current division leaders in the National League - are batting .262, .281 and .298 respectively with runners in scoring position. 

The bottom half of the lineup is as close to an automatic out as there is in baseball. After coming back from a hamstring injury, Mark Vientos looks lost at the plate. In his last three games, he's gone 1-13, and that one hit was a dribbler up the third base line. Ronnie Mauricio, aside from smacking three dingers, clearly cannot handle major-league pitching; and Francisco Alvarez had gotten so bad, the Mets were forced to send him back down to Syracuse to help him get his swing back. All the faith in the world can't overcome this level of ineptitude.

The fact is the Mets, even with the second-highest payroll in baseball, lack the depth to be a good team. David Stearns has done a credible job of piecing together a pitching staff that until recently was the envy of every GM in the majors. And now it is coming unglued. Take away Lindor, Soto, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, and most of the remaining hitters would have a hard time cracking the Oakland A's lineup. Even in a sport as individualistic as baseball, you still need more than a handful of players to win a championship.

If this hemorrhaging doesn't come to an end soon, the Flushing Faithful may have to endure yet another year of bitter disappointment.

But then that's become a rite of passage, hasn't it?

Exploring Drury's Options After Sending His 2025 Pick to Pittsburgh

Earlier today, the New York Rangers announced that they were sending their 2025 first round draft pick - 12th overall - to the Pittsburgh Penguins and retaining their 2026 first rounder. The move completes the trade in which the Rangers acquired J.T. Miller from the Vancouver Canucks back in February for a top-13 protected number one. The Rangers had until 48 hours before the Draft to decided which pick they were keeping. The reason it's going to Pittsburgh and not Vancouver is because the Canucks traded it to the Pens in the Marcus Pettersson deal.

So what does this mean?

For starters, I don't think it means that Chris Drury believes next year's pick will be higher, e.g., better. For his sake, it better not be. Indeed, the prevailing sentiment around the NHL is that this team, even with all its flaws, is much better than what it showed last season. That doesn't mean the Rangers will win the Presidents' Trophy, but it does mean they should make the playoffs. Why else would Drury hire Mike Sullivan to coach the team if he didn't feel that way?

That's why this move was so vital. Holding onto next year's first round pick provides Drury with five possible options.

One: An Offer Sheet. For almost a month now the scuttlebutt around the league has had the Rangers signing J.J. Peterka of the Buffalo Sabres to an offer sheet. There was just one hitch. If they kept their '25 first rounder, the Rangers wouldn't have one to send to Buffalo in the event the Sabres couldn't match the offer. An offer sheet with an AAV of $7.02 million per would require a first and third round pick as compensation. Here's the thing, though: based on the CBA, even if Drury front loaded the offer sheet with signing bonuses in each year, the highest salary he can pay Peterka in year one is $8.775m: $8m signing bonus and $775k base. Difficult, but hardly insurmountable for Buffalo. But in the end, why would the Sabres bother matching an offer for a player who has made it clear he doesn't want to be there?

Two: Leverage. Drury doesn't actually have to sign Peterka to an offer sheet; he can just threaten to do so. Indeed, if he plays his cards right, he might be able to negotiate a deal with his counterpart Kevyn Adams in which he keeps his first rounder and gives up, say, Gabe Perrault, Brennan Othmann and a third round pick for Peterka or Alexis Lafreniere and Braden Schneider for Peterka and Bowen Byram. Drury would then have to sign both players to long-term deals.

Three: Trade deadline acquisition. If the Rangers have the kind of season Drury expects them to have, he can use that pick to land a player at the deadline that can hopefully put them over the top. And with the salary cap going up to $104 million in the 2026-27 season and $113.5 million the following season, he could acquire a player with term without worrying about going over the cap, something he couldn't do in past years.

Four: Keep it. There's no law that says you have to trade your pick. If the Rangers unexpectedly shit the bed again this coming season, that first round pick will come in handy along with all the other picks the Rangers will accumulate by being sellers at the deadline. But, I stress, this is unlikely. 

Five: Trade a player on the roster for another player or pick in this year's draft. K'Andre Miller's name has been mentioned as a possible trade chip to acquire a forward or perhaps a draft pick in the upcoming draft. As I mentioned in an earlier piece, the defenseman has regressed over the last couple of seasons and remains an enigma. Perhaps a change of scenery would be best for both parties. 

The drama continues. 

We'll know soon enough what Drury's intentions are.

Panthers Provide a Blueprint for the NHL

Sam Bennett won the Conn Smythe trophy for most valuable player in the NHL playoffs. It was well earned. Bennett led the Florida Panthers with 15 goals and 22 points in 23 postseason games. He was by far the most consistent player for his team, and whether he stays in South Florida or goes elsewhere this summer, he will be richly and justly rewarded with his next contract.

But the one trophy that has yet to be awarded is the Jim Gregory award for top executive of the year. If anyone other than Bill Zito wins it, there oughta be an investigation. The job he has done transforming the Panthers from a middling team into a dynasty should be a blueprint for every general manager in the league, including a certain individual currently employed at 4 Penn Plaza.

Since he was hired in 2020, Zito has signed or traded for Sam Bennett (C) and Matthew Tkachuk (LW) from the Calgary Flames, Sam Reinhart (RW) from the Buffalo Sabres, Carter Verhaeghe (LW) from the Tampa Bay Lightning, Evan Rodrigues (LW) from the Colorado Avalanche, Niko Mikkola (D) from the New York Rangers, Gustav Forsling (D) and Seth Jones (D) from the Chicago Blackhawks, Eetu Luostarinen (LW) from the Carolina Hurricanes, Brad Marchand (RW) and Jesper Boqvist (C) from the Boston Bruins, Tomas Nosek (C) from the New Jersey Devils, and Nate Schmidt (D) and Paul Maurice (coach) from the Winnipeg Jets. In short, more than half of the Stanley Cup winning team came from elsewhere.

In a sport that defines success by how many home-grown players a team has, the Panthers are a text-book example of how to shop wisely. No organization does it better. Just look at their top nine:

Verhaeghe - Alesander Barkov - Reinhart

Rodrigues - Bennett - Tkachuk 

Luostarinen - Anton Lundell - Marchand 

Only Barkov and Lundell were drafted by the Panthers. That's it. Everyone else came from outside the organization.

Zito is not the first GM to build a championship team mostly through trades. In the 1990s, Neil Smith broke a 54 year Cup drought by importing Adam Graves, Jeff Beukaboom, Mark Messier, Esa Tikkanen, Kevin Lowe, Steve Larmer, Stephan Matteau, Brian Noonan, Craig MacTavish, Glenn Anderson, Doug Lidster and Glenn Healy. What is remarkable is that he's managed to do it in the cap era where general managers routinely pull their hair out trying to field a competitive roster and still stay cap compliant. 

His secret sauce has been the way he's managed the cap. Like Julien BriseBois of the Tampa Bay Lightning before him, Zito has not signed one player to a contract with an AAV higher than $10 million. What this means is that he has the cap space needed to fill out his roster with solid bottom six players while some teams struggle to assemble a top six.

For example, the Panthers cap hit for Barkov, Tkachuk, Reinhart, Verhaeghe and Bobrovsky comes to $45.1 million. The Edmonton Oilers cap hit for just Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid is $26.5 million. There's no doubt that both these players are among the best in the NHL, but you have to ask yourself whether any hockey team can win a Stanley Cup with so much salary tied up in two players. And keep in mind, McDavid will be a UFA after the 2025-26 season. His next contract could well have an AAV of $17 million or higher. Even with the salary cap expected to go up to $104m in 2026 and $113m in 2027, the Oilers might be better off borrowing a page from the Panthers playbook and moving on.

Indeed, five of the last six Stanley Cup winners - the Lightning twice, the Vegas Golden Knights once and the Panthers twice - do not have a single player with an AAV over $10 million. Meanwhile, the team with the most front-loaded roster in the league - the Toronto Maple Leafs - have made it to the second round twice in the last eight seasons. That cannot be a coincidence.

What it tells us is that having the best player in a series is no guarantee of success. Indeed, it's almost a curse. If I were the GM of a team with Cup aspirations, I would emulate what Zito and BriseBois have done with their respective teams. Both have stumbled on to something; something that most fans don't understand. You don't need world-class talent to win in today's NHL. What you need is depth and solid goaltending. The Oilers had neither in these finals, and it showed.

Call me "delusional," or any name you want, but I don't think the hockey fans in South Florida care in the slightest that number 97 doesn't play for their team. They have two Cups, and the last time I checked, that's two more than the Oilers have won in this century.

Come to think of it, it's one more than the Rangers have won since World War II.

Ouch!

Mendoza's Moment of Truth

The New York Mets were swept by the Atlanta Braves Thursday night. There's nothing unique about that statement. Three years ago, they went into Atlanta needing just one win to secure the tie-breaker for first place in the National League East. Instead they lost all three games. There's something about playing in this city that brings out the Marv Throneberry in the Amazins.

But the Mets did more than just get swept the Braves; they got swept by the Braves after getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays. 0-6 after a 16-4 stretch, which saw them build a five and a half game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies. They are now tied for first with three games in Philadelphia. Don't be surprised if by Sunday night they're three games behind the Phillies. Remember when I said they'd be lucky to go 6-4 over this ten-game stretch? Well, 2-8 is looking more like a possibility.

Let's call it what it is: a slump, and a pretty bad one. In the six straight games the Mets have lost, four have not been remotely close. But the two that were close, were given away by the manager, who has chosen a particularly bad time of the year to make some rather bizarre decisions. 

Game one against the Rays: The Mets were ahead 5-1 going into the top of the sixth. Carlos Mendoza decided to pull Clay Holmes after throwing only 79 pitches, even though he was sailing along. The explanation was that the Mets were concerned about stretching Holmes too much given that this was his first year as a starter. Fair enough; you want him fresh for the stretch drive and playoffs. Totally understandable. Then why did Mendoza let him throw 104 pitches against the Braves five days later when it was painfully obvious he was struggling? What happened to managing his pitch count?

Game one against the Braves: The Mets were ahead 4-1 going into the bottom of the eight. David Peterson, fresh off a complete-game shutout against the Washington Nationals, was in complete command. Mendoza decided to leave him in, but for some reason didn't have anyone warming up in the bullpen just in case he got into trouble, which is what happened. Peterson walked the first batter he faced, at which point Reed Garrett started throwing in the bullpen. The next batter singled. The Braves had runners on first and second with no one out. Mendoza then went to Garrett who clearly was not yet ready to pitch. Atlanta ended up tying the game in that inning.

Same game against the Braves: Bottom of the 10th, tied score, free runner on second. Acuna is intentionally walked. On a wild pitch, for some reason Francisco Alvarez decided to throw behind the runner, thus allowing the eventual winning run to move to third base where he scored on a sacrifice fly. After the game, Mendoza, rather than just admit his catcher made a mistake, attempted to rationalize it. That is a no-no. A manager who cannot hold his players accountable is doing them a disservice. You don't have to throw your player under the bus to acknowledge what everyone who watched the game saw.

Look, last year Mendoza did a remarkable job not overreacting when the Mets got off to a horrific start. Indeed, you could say his calm demeanor gave the team the space it needed to turn the season around. And to be honest, no one ever accused him of being Joe McCarthy.

But Mendoza exhibits all the tell-tell signs of a manager who can't quite come to terms with the fact that he is no longer a coach but the field boss. Case in point, how he's handled the bullpen. Even last season when everything seemed to be going the Mets way, Mendoza would leave his starters in a little too long or pull them a little too soon. And his choice of reliever would sometimes be a head scratcher, like bringing in Adam Ottavino with a runner on first base. If you've ever watched Ottavino attempt to hold a runner on first, it's like watching a Three Stooges short if all three stooges were named Shemp. In the aforementioned game against the Rays, Mendoza, rather than bring in one of his best set-up men, opted for Paul Blackburn.

Okay, it's a long season, I get it. Managers, like players, have their share of bad games. But these are not isolated incidents; there's clearly a pattern here, or a lack thereof. Mendoza is not a bad manager, but his inconsistencies have been glaring. Alarm bells should be going off in the Mets front office. I don't care how long the season is, you can't give away games, especially in a division with two perennial 90 plus win teams like the Phillies and Braves. The Mets were very lucky to squeak into the postseason last year; there's no guarantee that, even with the addition of Juan Soto, they will make it back this year.

By no means is Carlos Mendoza the main culprit here. The Mets bats have gone cold and their pitching has gone south. No manager can overcome that kind of a slump. But he does have an obligation to put his team in the best possible position to win. To paraphrase an old saying, even if you can't get the horse to drink, you still have to lead him to the water.

As I wrote in my last piece, David Stearns will have to address the holes in this roster. But while he's doing that, it would behoove him to give his manager a pep talk before it gets too late.

Mets Get a Wakeup Call

Going into their series against the Tampa Bay Rays at CitiField, the New York Mets were 16-4 in their last 20 games. They boasted the best team ERA and the second-best runs scored and against differential in Major League Baseball. With an overall record of 45-24, they were solidly in first place in the National League East, five and a half games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies. It looked like they were ready to put the pedal to the metal.

And when they jumped out to a 5-1 lead over the Rays in game one, it certainly appeared as if they were doing that. The Mets scored two runs in the bottom of the 4th and three more in the bottom of the 5th to erase an early 1-0 Tampa Bay lead. Clay Holmes was in complete command, allowing one run and three hits through five. But Carlos Mendoza decided to pull him after just 79 pitches.

That's when the roof fell in on the Mets. The Rays lit up Paul Blackburn and Max Kranick like a Christmas tree in the top of the 6th, scoring six runs, two courtesy of a two-run homer from Danny Jansen, who entered the game with a .194 batting average. The Mets lost the game 7-5.

It didn't get any better for the Amazins the next two games. They lost 8-4 and 9-0 respectively; the latter coming on Father's Day with 42,804 disappointed fans in attendance. Imagine having that many people in your stadium and getting embarrassed like that. It was the first time this season that the Mets had been swept in a three-game series.

Perhaps this was just an anomaly; a couple of stinkers in an otherwise long schedule. After all, the Mets were due for a let down sooner or later. And it's not like the Rays are a bottom feeder; in fact, they're a pretty good team. Over their last twenty games, they were averaging five and a half runs per game. To put that in perspective, the Mets are averaging 4.55 runs per game for the season.

Or perhaps it was a wakeup call. For much of 2025, the Mets have relied on their pitching to carry them. And until this series, that formula was working. But the Rays exposed a flaw in that formula. They beat up on a bullpen that is starting to show signs of wear and tear not even half-way through the season. They also did a number on Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning, both of whom appear to be reverting to form.

After an impressive April in which he posted a 1.73 earned run average, Megill's ERA in May and June ballooned to 5.96 and 5.52 respectively. Over his five years as a big-league pitcher - all with the Mets - Megill is 26-26 with a 4.46 ERA. This is who he is, folks.

Coming into this season, Canning had a career ERA of 4.78 with the Los Angeles Angels. Take away the start he had against the Dodgers in LA earlier this month, and Canning has allowed 16 earned runs over his last 15 innings pitched. We have a word for that: it's called atrocious.

With Kodai Senga sustaining a hamstring injury in his last start, and Sean Manaea still out with an oblique injury, the starting rotation is going to be under duress for the foreseeable future. And aside from Edwin Diaz, Reed Garrett and Huascar Brazobán, the bullpen has been a huge question mark of late. A pitching staff that had been rock solid for most of the season now looks very vulnerable.

And the concerns don't end with the pitching. While Juan Soto has finally awoken from his early-season slumber, there are gaping holes in this lineup. Francisco Alvarez continues to struggle offensively. In 32 games, he's hitting .241 with only two home runs and 10 RBIs. His platoon mate Luis Torrens isn't any better. His slash line is .231 / 1 / 13. Ronny Mauricio, who was brought up from Syracuse when Mark Vientos went down with a hamstring injury last month, looks lost at the plate. Aside from a few games here and there, there's been virtually no production from the DH spot. And while Tyron Taylor is a human vacuum cleaner in center field, he's practically an automatic out at the plate. Put succinctly, the bottom four of the batting order isn't pulling its weight. Overall, the Mets are hitting just .218 with runners in scoring position this season; third lowest in the majors.

Put it all together and it spells trouble for a Mets team that had designs on going all the way this season. David Stearns has done an incredible job assembling this roster, but it's clear there's more work that needs to be done. The GM needs to add at least one more bat to this lineup and a couple of arms to this beleaguered bullpen. Mendoza can't keep playing Russian Roulette with his relievers hoping they don't implode the way Blackburn and Kranick did against the Rays.

Over the next ten days, the Amazins play the Atlanta Braves seven times and the Phillies thrice. After a rough stretch, Philly has won five in a row. As for Atlanta, while their record is a disappointing 31-39, they always play the Mets tough. The Flushing Faithful will never forget how the Braves came from seven games behind in August to win the division in 2022. Anybody who thinks this is a walk in the park doesn't know what they're talking about. If the Mets go 6-4, they'll be lucky.

The trading deadline is July 31. Plenty of time for Stearns to work his magic. 

Drury Continues To Clean House

In a move that was widely anticipated, the New York Rangers traded their longest-tenured forward, Chris Kreider, to the Anaheim Ducks. And just like he had done with Patrick Nemeth, Barclay Goodrow and Jacob Trouba, Chris Drury did not retain a cent of Kreider's salary. All $6.5 million came off the books. What made it even better was that Drury managed to convince him to waive his no-trade clause. Kreider will now be reunited with Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano and Trouba.

The return, a third round draft pick and a prospect, was immaterial. This was a salary dump, pure and simple. With Kreider gone, the Rangers now have $14.9 million in available cap space going into next season. And if Drury can somehow get Mika Zibanejad, Kreider's BFF, to waive his NMC, that cap space would swell to  $23.4 million. But according to Vince Mercogliano, that isn't likely to happen.

I know there are a number of Rangers fans who are deeply saddened about Kreider's departure, with some calling for his jersey to be hung from the rafters. I wish I could share their sentiments. The facts is that for all his abilities, Kreider's forte over the last few seasons was scoring on the power play. He literally made a living in his office deflecting shots past goaltenders. In the 2021-22 season, for instance, 26 of his 52 goals were scored with the man advantage. But this season, he managed a paltry 6 out of 22 tallies on the power play.

As someone who's been a fan of this team since Richard Nixon was in the White House, I've seen my fair share of good players shown the door: Rick Middleton, Mike Ridley, Kelly Miller, Mark Messier, Brian Leetch (on his fucking birthday, no less), Ryan McDonagh, the list goes on. Forgive me if I don't shed any crocodile tears over a player who, let's face it, phoned it in for much of the season. If anything, I think I've earned the right to be a little jaded with respect to number 20.

But while getting rid of Kreider was a necessary step in this retool, there's still a lot left on Drury's plate. K'Andre Miller and Will Cuylle are pending RFAs and eligible to receive offer sheets. If Drury doesn't sign them to extensions by July 1, it's conceivable he could lose both. Cuylle, in particular, would be a devastating loss. There were times this season when he was the best player on the ice for the Blueshirts. In only his second full season on Broadway, Cuylle had 20 goals, 25 assists and 300 hits. The 6-3, 212 lb. winger plays the game the way it's opposed to be played. If every player on this team played like Cuylle did last season, the Rangers would've beaten the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference finals. Drury must do whatever it takes to lock him up before the end of the month.

As far as Miller is concerned, he remains an enigma. There are nights when he looks like a Norris trophy candidate; then there are nights when he looks like he could be the seventh defenseman at Hartford. He has the size and skillset to be an elite defenseman in the NHL, yet for some inexplicable reason, he coughs up the puck at the most inopportune time of the game, which leads to high-danger scoring chances that have a nasty habit of winding up in the back of his goalie's net. Since his arrival in New York in 2020, he's played for David Quinn, Gerard Gallant and Peter Laviolette, and he's managed to get worse with each passing season.

I suppose Mike Sullivan could turn him around, but if I had to guess, I'd say he winds up being dealt as part of a package to land a top six forward or a top four defenseman. Jason Robertson of the Dallas Stars and Vladislav Gavrikov of the LA Kings are two names that have been mentioned as possible targets for the Rangers. Robertson is entering the final year of a contract that pays him $7.75 million per. Gavrikov made $5.875 million this season and will become a UFA on July 1. Both will command hefty raises in their next deal. Drury will have to be very creative if he wants both players.

All in all, it was a good day for the Rangers President and General Manger. He got rid of a bad contract and put himself in position to land a good one. In other words, he did his job. 

What Could Leon Rose Be Thinking?

While we wait to see whether the Dallas Mavericks grant the New York Knicks permission to "speak" with Jason Kidd concerning their head coaching vacancy, and whether, if it's granted, the two teams can agree on compensation, another even bigger story has emerged that, if true, threatens to undermine everything this organization has built up over the last three seasons.

As you're probably aware by now, it was recently revealed that the Knicks attempted to acquire Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns at the trade deadline last March. Obviously, the deal never went through, but according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN, the Knicks are still in the market for KD's services, along with several other teams, it should be pointed out.

The Suns have been a huge disappointment over the last two years, and this season failed to make the playoffs. Going into the 2025-26 season, they are $11 million over the second apron with only ten players signed. To put that in perspective, the Knicks are $8 million under the second apron with eleven players signed. What that means is that the Suns are in what is commonly referred to as cap hell with a bad team that will be severely restricted from making improvements to the roster. This is unsustainable.

The 800 pound gorilla in the room, however, is Durant's contract, which is an astonishing $54.7 million. Any team looking to add him to their roster would have to send an equal dollar amount the other way. There's only one player on the Knicks who fits that bill, and that's Karl-Anthony Towns. The 7-0 center, who Leon Rose traded Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo for last September, is due to earn $53.1 million next season. Ideally, the Suns would like to get more than just one player in exchange for KD, but that would mean the Knicks would have to package two players in the deal, further shortening an already short bench.

Let me just go on record right now as saying that this trade, if it were pulled off, would be one of the worst in franchise history. As talented as KD is, he does not get the Knicks any closer to an NBA championship; indeed, he could move them further away from it. Let me explain.

For starters, Towns has gotten a lot of criticism for the way he performed in this year's playoffs, almost all of it undeserved. True, there were a few games in which he was a non-factor. But overall, he was a net positive for this team. In the Pacers series, he practically owned his counterpart, Myles Turner, the only Knick that can say that, by the way.

During the regular season, KAT averaged 24.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists per game, while shooting 52.6 percent from the field and 42 percent from three. The only center in the NBA with a better slash line was Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets. You don't trade players like that; you surround them with complimentary talent, which is what Rose should be doing.

If the Knicks were to trade KAT, they would have a gaping hole at the five spot that would have to be filled by Mitchell Robinson, who has a history of getting injured, and Ariel Hukporti, who is, as yet, still an unproven player. And in return, they would get an aging forward who has, at most, maybe another two seasons left in the tank before he calls it a career.

What could Rose be thinking even entertaining such a deal? This has James Dolan written all over it. I was willing to give the Knicks owner the benefit of the doubt over the Thibodeau firing, but if the Knicks are actually stupid enough to pull the trigger on this trade, then this will be yet another example of him screwing up this franchise, just like he did with the Rangers four years ago when he fired John Davidson and Jeff Gordon because he was unhappy with the pace of the rebuild. The man thinks he knows something about sports. The fact is had it not been for his father Charles, old Jimbo wouldn't be a flee on a donkey's ass.

Let's hope sanity prevails and Rose directs his attention to where it belongs: hiring a coach that can take this team to the next level, and fortifying a depleted bench so that his best players don't look like rag dolls by the fourth quarter. Regarding the latter, the Utah Jazz have let it be known that they are fielding offers for Walker Kessler. Deuce McBride, Hukporti and the 2026 and 2032 first round picks might be enough to get it done. I'd much rather have Kessler backing up KAT than either Hukporti or Mitch, wouldn't you? And with the savings from Robinson's contract, whom I assume they wouldn't need anymore, the Knicks could find a way to bring back DiVincenzo, thus reuniting the Nova Four.

That makes a helluva lot more sense than trading for a fading star, doesn't it?

Memo To Steve Cohen: Pay the Polar Bear!

Much has been written about the great start the New York Mets have gotten off to. At 39-23, they have the best record in the National League, and the second best record in the Majors. Their team ERA of 2.83 is the best in baseball; followed by the San Francisco Giants at 3.06 and the Texas Rangers at 3.17. The LA Dodgers, last year's World Series champs, are currently 20th with a 4.12 team ERA.

Much of the credit for the pitching goes to David Sterns, who without one of his best starters from last year in Sean Manaea, has assembled one of the best and deepest staffs in baseball. Seriously, if you had the Mets with the number one team ERA after 62 games, I want to see the receipts, and then I've got a cup for you to pee in. Nobody saw this coming.

But as great as the pitching has been, the Mets wouldn't be where they are in the standings without the exploits of one Pete Alonso, AKA the Polar Bear. Last night he smacked two home runs against the Dodgers; the latter a three-run shot that traveled 447 feet into the left-field pavilion. Overall, Alonso was responsible for five of the six runs the Mets scored in the game.

This is not the first time he has carried his team across the threshold. Apart from a slump in May where he went 65 at bats without hitting a home run, the Polar Bear has been the Mets most consistent offensive threat pretty much the entire season.

Just look at his slash line so far this season: 

Avg: .290, HRs: 14, RBIs: 53, OBP: .386, SLG: .563, OPS: .949.

Alonso is on track to finish the season with 37 homers and 138 runs batted in. What's been most impressive about Pete is that he's hitting to all fields and avoiding swinging at bad pitches; something he did quite frequently the last two seasons. On a team that is hitting an anemic .219 with runners in scoring position - fourth worst in the Majors - Alonso's RISP average is .349. 

And to think, the Polar Bear almost didn't re-sign with the Mets. Alonso's agent Scott Boras was looking for a long-term deal in excess of $200 million. But Steve Cohen and Stearns played hardball and wouldn't budge. Finally, both sides agreed on a two-year deal for $54 million with an opt out after this season. Based on what Alonso has done so far this season, I'd say the odds of Pete opting out are somewhere between 100 percent and Are you fucking kidding me?

Which brings me to the title of my piece. Last offseason, Cohen had all the leverage. Alonso was coming off inarguably the worst season of his career: 34 HRs, 88 RBIs, and an OPS of just .788. Boras badly overplayed his hand. He thought there would be significant demand for Alonso's services. Turns out there wasn't and Cohen knew it.

That won't be the case this offseason, not with the year Alonso is having. Boras's cell phone will be ringing off the hook come November. You can just imagine what the offers will look like. Think seven years, $300 million. And that's just for starters. In case you misplaced your calculator, that comes out to $42.8 million per year. 

If you think that's crazy, consider that the Mets are paying Juan Soto $51 million per year and he's batting .232 with 11 HRs and 31 RBIs. Which is crazier, Alonso at $42.8m or Soto at $51m?

If Cohen is smart - and by all indications he is - he will get his checkbook out now rather than wait for the fall. The longer this goes on, the more it'll cost him. Boras is not one to forgive and forget. He knows once Pete hits the free agent market he will be in the driver's seat. Maybe he can get a home-team discount; say $20 million. Alonso may prefer to stay in Flushing, but let's face it: with an agent like Boras, if someone makes him an offer he can't refuse, it'll be adios for the Polar Bear.

And that's why Cohen cannot let that happen. As of this writing, Alonso is only two home runs shy of David Wright for second place on the Mets all-time home run list, twelve behind Darryl Strawberry for first. Barring injury, he should pass Strawberry sometime in late July or early August. You don't let guys like that walk, especially when they're literally the only ones producing in the clutch for you. 

Don't get me wrong: Francisco Lindor is having a great year, and sooner or later, Soto will get untracked. But this team would barely be above .500 if Alonso weren't in the lineup. His teammates know it, he knows it, and most of all, his agent knows it.

Like that Fram Oil commercial from the '70s used to say, "You can pay me now or you can pay me later."

Pay him now, Steve!

Knicks Move On From Thibs

After the New York Knicks lost to the Indiana Pacers in last year's playoffs, I wrote that their future "looked bright." And it certainly appeared that way. A team decimated by injuries still managed to get to a game seven before finally succumbing to the inevitable. One could certainly be excused for being optimistic about the 2024-25 season. And with the offseason moves Leon Rose made, the consensus was that this franchise was on the verge of achieving something great; something it hadn't achieved since 1973: a title.

But even though this season's roster was more talented than last season's, the toughness and resiliency that had come to define past Tom Thibodeau teams was missing. The Knicks were among the worst teams in the NBA when it came to defending the perimeter. Opponents shot 36.7 percent from three against them. Only the Phoenix Suns (37 percent), Atlanta Hawks (37.7 percent), Philadelphia 76ers (37.8 percent) and Sacramento Kings (38.1 percent) were more porous from beyond the arc.

It was frustrating to watch a team as gifted offensively as the Knicks were be so inept defensively. Was it a matter of chemistry? Perhaps. After all, making two significant trades the way Rose did - the latter coming literally as training camp was beginning - could have upset the apple cart, I suppose. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo were very popular players in that locker room; losing them no doubt hurt. Indeed, it looked as if this roster had been thrown together in the hopes it would somehow be able to figure it out.

And at times it appeared as though it had. The Knicks went 12-2 in the month of December to improve their record to 23-10. But only one of those wins came against a playoff team. In January and February, the Knicks went a collective 16-10, but were 0-4 against teams ahead of them in the standings. Further, the manner in which the Knicks lost those games was disconcerting, to say the least. They were competitive in only one of them. During the regular season, the Knicks went 0-10 versus the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder. Not a very good sign for a team with championship aspirations. Despite finishing 51-31, it was obvious to even the most casual observer that this was a flawed team.

Going into this year's playoffs, I thought the Knicks, at the very least, had to beat the Detroit Pistons for Thibs to keep his job. But when they upset the Celtics in six, I naturally assumed he was safe. Obviously, I was wrong. The fact is, despite their woeful record against Boston during the regular season, the Knicks were built with the expressed purpose of dethroning the champs. And that is precisely what happened. Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns both had the series of a lifetime, especially Bridges who literally stole games one and two in Boston with his defense.

But against the Pacers, the Knicks were always a step behind, and not just physically. Throughout the series, Rick Carlisle thoroughly out-coached Thibs, who was late making adjustments, and at times reluctant to make substitutions. After dropping the first two games at the Garden, he finally tinkered with his lineup, inserting Landry Shamet and Delon Wright into the rotation. The result was a badly-needed win and a chance to get even in the series. But then Carlisle made his adjustments and just like that the Knicks were on the brink of elimination. They forced a game six, but couldn't will a game seven. In the end, Indiana exposed every flaw in their game. While Thibs was playing checkers, Carlisle was playing chess.

In the executive offices at 4 Penn Plaza, Rose clearly did not like what he saw. Either this team - the one he assembled through series of trades and signings - wasn't good enough or it simply wasn't being coached well enough. To quote Sherlock Holmes, "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." Rose knew it couldn't be the former, so he concluded it had to be the latter.

It is an axiom in sports that you coach the team you have, not the one you wish you had. It was clear from day one that the makeup of this roster clashed with the way Thibs preferred to coach. In short, this was never his team. And unless this is your first day on planet Earth, you have to know that whenever a coach and a GM butt heads over player personnel, it is always the coach who loses.

So now Rose, in addition to fortifying a roster he believes is a contender, will be looking for a new head coach. It won't be easy. Coaches that guide their teams to back-to-back 50 win seasons don't grow on trees. Whoever he picks will have the unenviable task of winning over a core that to a man loved Thibs. Jalen Brunson, in particular, will be a hard sale. I can't imagine Rose made this move without at least giving his captain a heads up.

One potential candidate is already on staff. Rick Brunson - Jalen's father - has been an assistant coach with the Knicks since the 2022-23 season. He knows the roster inside out, and from what little we know of him, he won't make the one mistake Thibs kept making over and over during his tenure: driving this team into the ground. The fact is Knick starters had considerably more minutes on the court than any other team this season. In the clincher against the Celtics, the Knicks were up 35 with less than six minutes to go and Thibs still hadn't put his bench players in. There is simply no excuse for that happening. None.

Now for the sixty-four thousand dollar question: What role, if any, did James Dolan play in this? While there's no evidence that he ordered the firing, it's inconceivable that he wasn't consulted on it, especially given that the Knicks will owe Thibs $30 million to NOT coach the team next season. You don't give away that much money without getting the owner's blessing.

Just to be clear, the Knicks did not fire Red Auerbach; they fired a coach whose stubbornness walked hand-in-hand with his work ethic. Yes, he brought back a culture of winning, but this team was probably not going to win a championship under him. Rose did what he had to do.

So, the Tom Thibodeau era has officially come to an end in New York. 

Knicks fans await to see who his successor will be.

The Three Things Knicks Must Do To Get To a Game Seven

With their backs up against the wall and facing elimination, the New York Knicks took to the court Thursday night at Madison Square Garden, and in front of 19,812 screaming, loyal fans, played their best game of the postseason, dominating the Indian Pacers from the opening tip-off to the final buzzer, en route to a 111-94 victory.

Jalen Brunson - AKA, Mr. Clutch - led all scorers with 32 points, while Karl-Anthony Towns - playing with a bad knee - dominated in the paint with 24 points and 13 rebounds.

But just like in the fourth quarter of game three, there were plenty of heroes for the men in orange and blue, starting with the head coach. Tom Thibodeau went with an unprecedented ten-man rotation. This meant the starters weren't gassed in the closing minutes of the game. Not one Knick logged more than 36 minutes.

Landry Shamet and Delon Wright continued to impress coming off the bench, as did Precious Achiuwa, who has appeared in only nine of the Knicks 17 playoff games. All three were plusses on the night. 

But the biggest reason this series is going back to Indiana for a game six was the New York defense, which was, in a word, incredible. The Knicks forced the Pacers into a half-court offense, something they don't thrive in. Tyrese Haliburton, who had quite possibly his best game as a Pacer in game four, had a defender on him every time he touched the ball. Indeed, every Pacer was guarded closely throughout the game. It's the first time we've seen the Knicks this aggressive on defense all season, and it worked. 

Before the start of the Eastern Conference finals, I wrote that if this series became a track meet, the Knicks would lose; if it became more of a half-court series, the Knicks would win. Well the Knicks finally got the memo in game five.

So what do the Knicks have to do tonight to force a game seven back at the Garden?

1. Dictate the pace. Rick Carlisle will make adjustments, just as he has done throughout the series, but it still comes down to which team controls the tempo. The Pacers will want to run and gun; the Knicks must remain disciplined and not allow them to. Brian Windhorst of ESPN put it this way. If the score is 26-24 after one, regardless of who is ahead, that bodes well for the Knicks; if the score is 38-35, that bodes well for the Pacers. In other words, if it's a high-scoring game, the Knicks will likely be eliminated. 

2. Defend, defend, defend. The best way to control the tempo of this game is to make Indiana work for every basket it gets. That means that Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby have to guard Haliburton and Pascal Siakam like their lives depend on it. No wide-open three-point attempts like the Pacers had in games one, two and four. Every shot has to be contested, no exceptions.

3. KAT has to continue to dominate in the paint. When Towns has played at his best, the Pacers have had no answers for him. Myles Turner tries, but he's badly outclassed. Indeed, it seems the only one capable of stopping Towns is Towns himself. With the Knicks leading 72-52 halfway through the third quarter in game five, KAT picked up his fourth foul, forcing Thibs to pull him, which led to a 12-2 run by Indiana. He has to be smarter than that in game six for the Knicks to survive.

Now it's entirely possible the Knicks could do all this and still lose the game. As I wrote in my preview, this is an excellent Pacers team. Since January 1, they have the fourth best record in the NBA. You don't accomplish that just by beating scrub teams.

But one thing is certain: if the Knicks fail to do the above, their season will be over.

You can take that to the bank.

Knicks Go From Cardiac Arrest To Cardiac Kids in Fourth Quarter

After blowing a 14 point lead with 2:51 to go in game one, and then following that up with a very lackluster second-half effort in game two, the New York Knicks were on the verge of falling behind 3-0 in their series against the Indian Pacers with 3:20 to go in the second quarter. At that point, the Pacers were ahead 55-35 and were in complete control of the game. The Knicks looked more like a team that was eager to get to the golf course than a team that was looking to capture its first title in 52 years.

But there were signs that the patient wasn't completely dead. The Knicks went on a 10-3 run to close out the half. And trailing 74-59 with 4:46 to go in the third quarter, the Knicks went on another run to get within ten heading into the fourth.

And that was when Karl-Anthony Towns decided to show up. Through three quarters, the 7-0 center had just four points. Let me repeat that. Towns had just FOUR FUCKING POINTS through three quarters! To put that in perspective, Mitchell Robinson had six. I already had the title for my next Knicks piece: "The Incredible Shrinking Center." It looked like Kitty KAT was phoning it in.

But in the fourth quarter, he was a man possessed. He hit the first of three three-pointers just 20 seconds in, followed by a pair of driving layups in the first couple minutes and a thunderous dunk with 8:02 to go that evoked memories of another center who went by the nickname "Chocolate Thunder." In all, Towns had 20 points, eight rebounds, two assists and was a plus 14 in the quarter to help his team get back in the series. With the win - their sixth in seven games - New York now trails Indiana 2-1 and has a shot at getting even Tuesday night.

But as great as Towns was, he had help. Josh Hart, who had been benched by Tom Thibodaeu to start the game, and was a minus 16 in the first half, had four points, five rebounds and was a plus 16 in the fourth quarter. In fact, every Knick was a plus in that quarter, including Jalen Brunson, who once again got into foul trouble, but still managed to score six points.

Another unsung hero for the Knicks was their bench. In an uncharacteristic move, Thibs elected to go with a nine-man rotation. That meant that both Delon Wright and Landry Shamet played meaningful minutes and did not disappoint. For the game, the entire Knick bench was a plus, with Shamet (+12) leading the way. 

But it took four free throws - two by Brunson and two by Hart - in the closing seconds to seal the win for New York. After going 28-40 (70 percent) in game one, the Knicks have now shot a collective 45-51 (88 percent) from the foul line over the last two games.

So, after failing to even the series at one game a piece in game two, the Knicks now face another "must-win" situation in game four. A loss would mean they'd have to go 3-0 the rest of the way, and only 13 NBA teams have successfully come from 3-1 down in a best of seven series to win. Ironically, the Knicks (1997 against the Miami Heat) were one of them.

So, how do they do it? That's the question. First off, the starters have to play better at the start of the game. That means KAT can't go MIA for three quarters, and Brunson has to stay out of foul trouble. As these two players go, so go the Knicks. There is no path to a series win, much less an NBA championship, that doesn't include both players leading the way. They are an integral part of this team's success.

Secondly, it is incumbent that New York play defense for an entire 48 minutes. For most of this series, the Knicks have treated the Pacers like they were China dolls; delicate and not to be touched. That meant clean looks for Indiana from the three-point line. Last night, the Pacers went 1-8 from beyond the arc (12.5 percent) and didn't get a single offensive rebound in the fourth quarter. Now that's how you defend. 

And lastly, Thibodeau needs to continue with a nine-man rotation. It worked in game three and it can work in games four, five and beyond. Against a Pacers team that is deep and athletic, the Knicks have to get as many of their bench players involved as possible, even if it's only for a few minutes per game. Even an old dog like Thibs can learn a new trick once in a while.

Game four is Tuesday night. We will see if Sunday night was indeed the beginning of a comeback or if it was just an anomaly.

For the Knicks, the Shoe Was on the Other Foot

That there was another double-digit, fourth-quarter comeback in an NBA playoff game Wednesday night was hardly news. Going into the game between the Indiana Pacers and the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, there had been six such comebacks this postseason, and the Knicks and Pacers were responsible for five of them.

Make that six now.

In a classic example of the shoe being on the other foot, it was the Knicks who were on the wrong end of a dramatic come-from-behind win this time around. Trailing 119-105 with 2:51 remaining in regulation, Indiana outscored New York 20-6 to force overtime, where they completed the comeback to take a 1-0 series lead.

It's hard to describe what a gut punch this was for the Knicks. Not only did they blow a fourteen point lead with less than three minutes to go in the fourth quarter, they actually blew a nine point lead with 58 seconds left. Since 1998, playoff teams were 0-1,414 when trailing by nine points or more with under a minute to go in the fourth quarter.

Make that 1-1,415.

This was a brutal loss for New York; far worse than the Reggie Miller "eight points in nine seconds" collapse. And that game has been seared into the collective consciousness of Knicks fans for literally thirty years. It's the principal reason why he is so despised; that and the choke sign he made after the win.

Why is this worse? Because in that Miller game, the Knicks were in complete control until the last nine seconds; in Wednesday night's game, the collapse actually began several minutes earlier.

Let's start with Jalen Brunson. In these playoffs, Brunson has been nothing short of brilliant; he's been by far the Knicks best player on the court. But in two games he has gotten into foul trouble. In game five against the Boston Celtics and game one against the Pacers. And in both instances, the Knicks have lost. 

When Brunson picked up his fifth foul with 10:05 to go in the fourth, Tom Thibodeau took him out of the game and inserted Josh Hart. At the time, the Knicks were ahead 94-92. They then went on a 14-0 run, thanks to OG Anunoby (7 pts), Karl-Anthony Towns (5 pts) and Deuce McBride (2 pts) to go up 108-92 with 7:24 left in the fourth.

After Pascal Siakam made a five footer to break the run, Towns then hit a three pointer to put the Knicks up 111-94 with 6:26 to go. The Pacers then hit two consecutive baskets to make it 111-98 with five minutes to go. At that point, Thibs called a timeout to put Brunson - five fouls and all - back in the game, even though New York had gone 17-6 with him on the bench and McBride was doing an outstanding job on defense.

With five fouls on him, Brunson was utterly useless on defense and the Pacers knew it. In fact, every Knick starter except Towns was a minus for the game, with Mikal Bridges the worst offender at minus 15. Indiana went up and down the court virtually unimpeded, with Aaron Nesmith hitting six(!) three pointers in the final 4:45 of regulation. It was like watching a pickup game.

But here's the thing: as putrid as the Knicks defense was, they still would've won had they hit all their free throws, but Towns and Anunoby each missed a critical free throw with less than 15 seconds left that would've iced the game. In all, New York was 28-40 (70 percent) from the free-throw line. If they had just gone 30-40 (75 percent) - the exact percentage Indiana finished at - the Knicks would now be up 1-0 instead of trailing 1-0.

So now what? How does a team put behind it the worst collapse in a postseason game in 27 years? By not repeating the same mistakes, that's how. The reality is for most of game one the Knicks were the better team. They out-rebounded the Pacers, outscored them in the paint, and - no pun intended - outpaced them. But as I tweeted at halftime with the Knicks up 69-62, "They're playing into Indiana's hands."

Put succinctly, the Knicks cannot keep up with a Pacers team that is built like a Roadrunner. I wrote at the start of this round that for New York to win they needed to make this a half-court series. If it turned into a track meet, Indiana would win. Guess what happened Wednesday night? The Pacers did pretty much what they wanted, and in the end, the Knicks simply ran out of gas. You can say they didn't close the game out, but that's just a polite way of saying they were gassed.

The fact is during the regular season, Indiana went 25-2 in games where they scored 120 points or more. In games where they were held to less than 120, they went 25-30. Quite a difference, wouldn't you say? Now you know why Pacers coach Rick Carlisle wasn't that concerned when his team was trailing by seven at half time, or fourteen with 2:51 to go, or nine with 58 seconds to go. He knew his team could make up the difference against a Knicks team that was, by that point, running on fumes.

That's why for the Knicks to even the series - indeed for them to win the series - they must control the tempo. Indiana will tempt them into a running game; they must resist. The higher the score in these games, the more likely it is that the Pacers will prevail and advance to the finals. The best scenario for New York would be a nice, low-scoring game: say 111-104 Knicks.

Another thing that has to happen for New York to even the series is for Brunson not to get into foul trouble. While he's never been known as a defensive stalwart, he needs to be smarter when Indiana has the ball. He can't be an easy target in clutch time like he was in game one. And if he does get into foul trouble in game two, Thibs has to have the courage to keep him on the bench. Against a Pacers team that isn't exactly known for its defense either, McBride and Cam Payne were surprisingly effective. The former had nine points in 25 minutes while the latter chipped in with six in just ten minutes. This might be one of those rare instances where the Knick bench plays a vital role in this series.

And finally, when the Knicks do go to the free throw line, they have to make their shots. No more 70 percent shooting nights. They're too good for that. The fact is if the Knicks had converted on their free-throw attempts in game one, we'd be taking about a close shave instead of an epic collapse. 

I hate saying this is a "Must Win" for New York. Frankly, it's the most overrated expression in sports. But in this case, it's appropriate. The Knicks must win tonight in order to have any shot of going to the finals for the first time since 1999. A loss would mean they'd have to go 4-1 the rest of the way against an opponent that only gets stronger as the series goes on.

And that isn't very likely.

Knicks Playoff Preview (Round Three)

With the Boston Celtics being dethroned, there will be a new NBA champion for the seventh year in a row. And if their fans have anything to say about it, that champion will be the New York Knicks.

For the first time in 25 years, New York finds itself in the Eastern Conference Finals. And their opponent is a familiar one. The Indiana Pacers have faced the Knicks three times in the conference finals, with the Knicks winning in 1994 and 1999, and the Pacers winning in 2000.

But it was their last meeting in the second round of last year's playoffs that is front and center now. The Knicks had beaten the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round and were seconds away from potentially taking a 3-0 lead on the Pacers when Andrew Nembhard hit a three pointer with 16 seconds left in the fourth quarter to give Indiana the win.

The loss was significant for New York. OG Anunoby suffered a groin injury in the closing minutes of game two and was unavailable the rest of the series; Mitchell Robinson sustained an ankle injury against the Sixers and appeared in only one game against the Pacers; Josh Hart would later pull an abdominal muscle in game six and was ineffective in game seven; Jalen Brunson broke his left hand in game seven and played only 29 minutes; and Julius Randle - their second-best player - had gone down with a dislocated right shoulder in January and was lost for the remainder of the season. The Pacers would eventually go on to win the series in seven against a Knicks team that looked more like a MASH unit than an NBA roster.

This time around, the Knicks are not only healthy, they're better. Just compare the starting five from last year's series to this year's:

2024: Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein.

2025: Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Hart, Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Bridges and KAT are vast improvements over DiVo and I-Hart respectively; and while this year's roster isn't as deep as last year's, we all know that, barring injuries, Tom Thibodeau typically goes with a seven-man rotation. That means that Deuce McBride and Mitchell Robison will get the bulk of the minutes coming off the bench. Squawk if you want, but this is how Thibs rolls. 

In each of their first two playoff rounds, the Knicks had to overcome challenges in order to win. In round one, they had to contend with a Detroit Pistons team that was nasty and physical. In round two, they had to contend with a Boston Celtics team that could shoot the ball like no one else's business. In this round, they will have to contend with an Indiana Pacers team that from January 1 had the third best record in the NBA and plays in fifth gear pretty much from the opening tip-off to the final buzzer.

There's no getting around it: Indiana will try to dictate the pace, no pun intended. It will be incumbent upon the Knicks to not let that happen. If this series becomes a track meet, the Knicks will lose; if it becomes more of a half-court series, the Knicks will win. Here are the keys:

KAT needs to dominate in the paint. With all due respect to Myles Turner, KAT is the better center; he must play like it. That means no disappearing acts and staying out of early foul trouble. He needs to replicate what he did against the Celtics in game six. The fact is the more involved he becomes in the Knick offense, the harder it will be for the Pacers to double team Brunson. When Towns plays up to his potential, there aren't many players in the league who can stop him.

Knicks must defend against the fast break. Few teams in the league can transition from defense to offense like the Pacers. Their speed will test the Knicks resolve. To thwart Indiana's fast-break game, New York will have to get back on defense quickly. That means no standing around to see if a shot goes in. This will take discipline on their part, but they'll have to do it in order to advance.

Brunson must continue to excel. Tyrese Haliburton is on a mission to prove to his critics that he's not overrated. But Jalen Brunson is on a mission of his own to prove to his critics that he's worthy of being called an elite player. Both statements are true. Haliburton is not overrated, but in this series, he will be the second-best point guard on the court. The fact is that what Brunson is doing in these playoffs is truly something to behold, and the only people who haven't acknowledged it are the ones who refuse to admit they were wrong about him in the first place. If Mr. Clutch continues to play as he has, the Pacers are in trouble.

Knicks have to distribute the ball. While Brunson will be the Knicks best player in this series, he can't be their only option offensively. New York is at its best when it distributes the ball; conversely, it struggles when it doesn't. It won't do any good if Brunson scores 35 points while Towns, Bridges and Anunoby collectively score 25. To win, all the kids have to play in the sandbox.

Bottom line, the Knicks are the better team; they're healthy and they have the home court. But the Pacers are hardly Swiss cheese. They knocked off the number one seed Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round and they've had the Knicks number the last three times they've met. This will be another close series, but the men in orange and blue should advance to the finals for the first time since 1999.  Knicks in six.

Western Conference Finals: 

Minnesota over Oklahoma City in seven. I know I picked the Thunder to win it all in my last preview, but frankly I like the Timberwolves in this series, and not just because KAT vs. Julius Randle would be a finals for the ages, but because OKC struggled at times against a Denver Nuggets team that was as thin as a piece of loose leaf paper. What will they do against a Timberwolves team that is bigger and just as athletic as they are? I'm guessing they won't do as well.

Knicks Half Way Home

In the end, it wasn’t close. The New York Knicks, who needed fourth quarter comebacks in games one, two and four, left nothing to chance in game six. They dominated the Boston Celtics pretty much from the opening tip-off, en-route to a series-clinching 119-81 victory Friday night at Madison Square Garden. It was, by far, their most complete game in these playoffs.

Every starter was in double digits, with Josh Hart recording a triple double. Jalen Brunson led all Knicks with 23 points, while Karl-Anthony Towns scored 21 and grabbed a team-high twelve rebounds. The win catapulted New York into the Eastern Conference finals for the first time since 2000; it was also the first time since 1999 that the Knicks clinched a best of seven series on their home court.

The off-season acquisitions of Mikal Bridges and Towns - often criticized during regular season - have given this franchise its best starting five since the Pat Riley / Jeff Van Gundy era.  If this is what Leon Rose envisioned over the summer when he gave up five first-round picks, Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, then he has been vindicated, at least for the moment.

But it was the return of Mitchell Robinson from a left ankle injury at the end of February that seems to have had the biggest impact on this team's fortunes. The 7-0 center has vastly improved the Knicks rim defense. Against the Celtics, New York was a plus 46 when Robinson was on the court versus a minus 43 when he was off. Imagine how many more regular season wins the Knicks might have had if Robinson had been healthy all year. Indeed, the best decision Rose appears to have made was not unloading him at the trade deadline for a depth scorer. Had he done so, the Knicks would probably be on the golf course right now.

I'd be lying if I said I saw this coming. My heart may have said Knicks in seven, but my head said Celtics in five. Given how many times my heart has been broken over the years, I had every reason to expect a quick and decisive loss for the men in orange and blue.

To quote a well-known scripture verse,  "O ye of little faith."

In my defense, though, I was hardly alone. Even an incurable optimist would've had a hard time believing the Knicks were capable of beating the Celtics in the playoffs, given they were 0-4 against them during the regular season, and only one of those losses was competitive. That most of the sports writers and talking heads had Boston winning in four or five games was less about an anti-New York bias than it was about an objective, sober analysis of where both teams were. The overwhelming view was that the Knicks were a very good team that was still a year or two away from challenging for the title.

But then a switch was thrown and logic went out the window. The fact is these are no longer the same Knicks who struggled during the regular season against the elite teams in the league. They have a swagger about them that is eerily familiar to those '90s teams. The resiliency that was missing most of the season, and which defined last year's team, is back with a vengeance. They believe in themselves, and they feel they are never out of a game, as evidenced by the fact that they've come-from-behind in six of their eight postseason wins.

And now they are eight wins away from their first NBA championship since 1973.

52 years! God, when you say it like that, it sounds like an eternity. That's because it is. Think about it: 90 percent of the fans who showed up outside the Garden to celebrate the Knicks win over the Celtics probably weren't alive in 1973. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if a third of them weren't around when they last went to the finals in '99. When I tell people I remember Clyde Frazier, Earl Monroe, Willis Reed and Dave DeBusschere, I'm not bragging; I'm just showing my gratitude for having had the opportunity to see such greatness in my lifetime.

And now all of us have the opportunity to see such greatness right before our very eyes. There is something special about this Tom Thibodeau-coached team; I can feel it. Every once in a while the basketball gods shower their favor upon a team. Don't get me wrong: I am not predicting a championship. Knowing my luck, that would be the kiss of death. What I am saying is that if the Knicks play the Indiana Pacers like they did the Celtics in game six, I like their chances. A lot.

This much is certain: the next time my head contradicts my heart, I'll tell it to go fuck itself!

Knicks Need To Wake Up!

It's generally accepted that when the Boston Celtics are fully healthy, they’re damn near impossible to defend against. With Jason Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Kristaps Porzingis, they can spread the floor better than any team in the NBA. When you add the likely sixth man of the year award winner Payton Pritchard to the mix you can see why they won 61 games this season, and why they went 16-3 last season in the playoffs. Yes, they're that good.

But with Tatum out and Porzingis not remotely close to being himself, they have only two legit scoring threats on the court: Brown and White. In theory, this should make them easier to defend against, right? 

So much for theory. The Celtics, facing elimination, routed the Knicks Wednesday night 127-102 to force a game six Friday night at Madison Square Garden. Brown had 26 points and 12 assists, while White led all scorers with 34 points. 

Meanwhile, Jalen Brunson had his worst game as a Knick, picking up five personal fouls in the third quarter and fouling out in the fourth; OG Anunoby went 1-12 overall from the field; and Karl-Anthony Towns got into early foul trouble and ended up playing only 29 minutes in the game. The only bright spot was Mitchell Robinson, who actually went 6-6 from the free-throw line.

Frankly, I'm at a loss to explain what happened here. New York, with a chance to wrap up the series and advance to its first conference finals appearance in 25 years, had a horrific second half, getting outscored by the Celtics 68-43. Every Knick was a minus for the game. 

Surely they had to have known which two players on the Celtics were going to have to carry the load offensively. And yet on virtually every Boston possession, both Williams and White were so alone, they could've sent out for a pizza. Did the Knicks really believe the Celtics would just roll over and die? The total lack of urgency on their end was stunning to behold.

And now the Knicks, who haven't won a best of seven series on their own court since 1999, will have to close out the defending champs Friday night or face the very real prospect of being only the 14th team in NBA history to blow a series after leading 3-1. 

Don't kid yourself. While game six is not technically a must win for the Knicks, losing it would mean a game seven in Boston, where the Celtics, even without Tatum, would be the overwhelming favorites to move on.

So how do the Knicks keep that from happening?

It starts with defense. New York did a terrible job communicating as a team, especially in its own zone. The result was missed coverages that led to wide open three point attempts. That cannot continue in game six. The Knicks have to force Williams and White into contested shots; they have to be on them like white on rice. Waiting until they get the ball in their hands is too late.

Brunson and Towns have to be the best players on the court. While it's highly unlikely that Brunson will repeat his brutal game-five performance, he needs to be that clutch player who clinched the series against the Pistons and led his team to victory in game four of this series. As for Towns, he's been hot and cold in these playoffs. He needs to assert himself more in the paint and avoid early foul trouble. There's no way a third-string center should ever dominate someone with his ability.

Bring a sense of urgency for a full 48 minutes, not just the last twelve. The Knicks need to treat game six like it's game seven. From the opening tip off to the final buzzer, they need to outwork the Celtics, who will, once more, be looking to stay alive. That means they need to fight for every loose ball, avoid costly turnovers and get back on defense when the shot doesn't go in. Remember, Boston is still shorthanded. New York needs to exploit that to its advantage.

If the Knicks play their best basketball; if they play hard the entire game, they should prevail. If they don't; if they blow this series against the Celtics, they will have no one but themselves to blame. 

Knicks Making Believers Out of Non-Believers

After Saturday afternoon's rather underwhelming effort by the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, the prevailing sentiment by the "experts" was that even though the Boston Celtics still trailed 2-1, they had taken control of the series and were now favored to wrap it up in six.

There was only one small problem: the Knicks never got the memo. They came out Monday night with their best performance of the postseason, beating the Celtics 121-113 to take a 3-1 lead and a stranglehold on the series.

Indeed, except for the last minute and a half of the first quarter in which the Celtics hit four consecutive three-pointers to take a 39-28 lead, the Knicks were the better team on the court for most of the night. Unlike the first two games in Boston, the men in orange and blue did not wait for the fourth quarter to mount their comeback. They began it with 9:05 left in the third, trailing 72-58.

And just as he has done throughout these playoffs, Jalen Brunson led the way for his teammates. He scored 26 points in the second half, 18 in the third quarter. Overall he finished with 39 for the Knicks. But he was not the only hero for the home team. OG Anunoby (20), Mikal Bridges (23) and Karl-Anthony Towns (23) each answered the bell, as well. It was, by far, the most balanced scoring attack the Knicks have had in this series. New York outscored Boston 70-51 in the second half.

To paraphrase Jerry Garcia, what a long, strange series it's been. In each of the first four games, the Celtics have had a double-digit lead in the third quarter, and in three of those four games, the Knicks came from behind to win. And the culprit in each of those Boston losses was their poor shooting performance from three-point range.

In games one and two, the Celtics shot a collective 25-100 (25 percent) from beyond the arc; in game three, they were 20-40 (50 percent) from downtown; and in game four, they went 12-24 (50 percent) from three in the first half, but only 6-24 (25 percent) in the second half. 

Put succinctly, when the Celtics hit their threes, they win; when they don't, they lose. There's no Plan B. Boston's inability, or unwillingness, to make in-game adjustments has been its biggest problem in this series. In short, their arrogance has been their own worst enemy. And now the Knicks, who entered this series as heavy underdogs, and were 1-11 during the regular season against teams ahead of them in the standings, are one win away from their first conference finals appearance since 2000.

And without Jayson Tatum, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury late in the fourth quarter, the chances of Boston mounting its own comeback and preventing that from happening is about as remote as a leopard changing its stripes. All season long, the Celtics have lived by the three and now they seem determined to die by it.

Which is just fine for a fanbase that has waited 52 years to celebrate a championship. And here's the best thing: should the Knicks and the Indiana Pacers advance - both teams lead their respective series 3-1 - New York would have the home court advantage. 

The lion's share of the credit for this metamorphosis goes to Tom Thibodeau. He has badly out-coached his counterpart, Joe Mazzulla in this series. He has made the necessary adjustments that have put the Knicks in position to capitalize on the Celtics shortcomings.

Case in point, the way he's handled Mitchell Robinson. The backup center is a plus 35 over the four games against Boston, but his liability at the free-throw line has been a big concern for the Knicks. However, rather than bench him, Thibs continues to play him, which has forced Mazzulla to foul him and, as a result, put the Celtics in the bonus earlier than he would prefer. Who'd have thunk that the Knicks of all teams would be winning the battle of coaching?

Bottom line: the Knicks are making believers out of non-believers; they are playing clutch basketball; their best players have been better than the Celtics best players; and they are almost halfway through this most improbable journey. 

A journey whose final destination has yet to be determined.