That there was another double-digit, fourth-quarter comeback in an NBA playoff game Wednesday night was hardly news. Going into the game between the Indiana Pacers and the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, there had been six such comebacks this postseason, and the Knicks and Pacers were responsible for five of them.
Make that six now.
In a classic example of the shoe being on the other foot, it was the Knicks who were on the wrong end of a dramatic come-from-behind win this time around. Trailing 119-105 with 2:51 remaining in regulation, Indiana outscored New York 20-6 to force overtime, where they completed the comeback to take a 1-0 series lead.
It's hard to describe what a gut punch this was for the Knicks. Not only did they blow a fourteen point lead with less than three minutes to go in the fourth quarter, they actually blew a nine point lead with 58 seconds left. Since 1998, playoff teams were 0-1,414 when trailing by nine points or more with under a minute to go in the fourth quarter.
Make that 1-1,415.
This was a brutal loss for New York; far worse than the Reggie Miller "eight points in nine seconds" collapse. And that game has been seared into the collective consciousness of Knicks fans for literally thirty years. It's the principal reason why he is so despised; that and the choke sign he made after the win.
Why is this worse? Because in that Miller game, the Knicks were in complete control until the last nine seconds; in Wednesday night's game, the collapse actually began several minutes earlier.
Let's start with Jalen Brunson. In these playoffs, Brunson has been nothing short of brilliant; he's been by far the Knicks best player on the court. But in two games he has gotten into foul trouble. In game five against the Boston Celtics and game one against the Pacers. And in both instances, the Knicks have lost.
When Brunson picked up his fifth foul with 10:05 to go in the fourth, Tom Thibodeau took him out of the game and inserted Josh Hart. At the time, the Knicks were ahead 94-92. They then went on a 14-0 run, thanks to OG Anunoby (7 pts), Karl-Anthony Towns (5 pts) and Deuce McBride (2 pts) to go up 108-92 with 7:24 left in the fourth.
After Pascal Siakam made a five footer to break the run, Towns then hit a three pointer to put the Knicks up 111-94 with 6:26 to go. The Pacers then hit two consecutive baskets to make it 111-98 with five minutes to go. At that point, Thibs called a timeout to put Brunson - five fouls and all - back in the game, even though New York had gone 17-6 with him on the bench and McBride was doing an outstanding job on defense.
With five fouls on him, Brunson was utterly useless on defense and the Pacers knew it. In fact, every Knick starter except Towns was a minus for the game, with Mikal Bridges the worst offender at minus 15. Indiana went up and down the court virtually unimpeded, with Aaron Nesmith hitting six(!) three pointers in the final 4:45 of regulation. It was like watching a pickup game.
But here's the thing: as putrid as the Knicks defense was, they still would've won had they hit all their free throws, but Towns and Anunoby each missed a critical free throw with less than 15 seconds left that would've iced the game. In all, New York was 28-40 (70 percent) from the free-throw line. If they had just gone 30-40 (75 percent) - the exact percentage Indiana finished at - the Knicks would now be up 1-0 instead of trailing 1-0.
So now what? How does a team put behind it the worst collapse in a postseason game in 27 years? By not repeating the same mistakes, that's how. The reality is for most of game one the Knicks were the better team. They out-rebounded the Pacers, outscored them in the paint, and - no pun intended - outpaced them. But as I tweeted at halftime with the Knicks up 69-62, "They're playing into Indiana's hands."
Put succinctly, the Knicks cannot keep up with a Pacers team that is built like a Roadrunner. I wrote at the start of this round that for New York to win they needed to make this a half-court series. If it turned into a track meet, Indiana would win. Guess what happened Wednesday night? The Pacers did pretty much what they wanted, and in the end, the Knicks simply ran out of gas. You can say they didn't close the game out, but that's just a polite way of saying they were gassed.
The fact is during the regular season, Indiana went 25-2 in games where they scored 120 points or more. In games where they were held to less than 120, they went 25-30. Quite a difference, wouldn't you say? Now you know why Pacers coach Rick Carlisle wasn't that concerned when his team was trailing by seven at half time, or fourteen with 2:51 to go, or nine with 58 seconds to go. He knew his team could make up the difference against a Knicks team that was, by that point, running on fumes.
That's why for the Knicks to even the series - indeed for them to win the series - they must control the tempo. Indiana will tempt them into a running game; they must resist. The higher the score in these games, the more likely it is that the Pacers will prevail and advance to the finals. The best scenario for New York would be a nice, low-scoring game: say 111-104 Knicks.
Another thing that has to happen for New York to even the series is for Brunson not to get into foul trouble. While he's never been known as a defensive stalwart, he needs to be smarter when Indiana has the ball. He can't be an easy target in clutch time like he was in game one. And if he does get into foul trouble in game two, Thibs has to have the courage to keep him on the bench. Against a Pacers team that isn't exactly known for its defense either, McBride and Cam Payne were surprisingly effective. The former had nine points in 25 minutes while the latter chipped in with six in just ten minutes. This might be one of those rare instances where the Knick bench plays a vital role in this series.
And finally, when the Knicks do go to the free throw line, they have to make their shots. No more 70 percent shooting nights. They're too good for that. The fact is if the Knicks had converted on their free-throw attempts in game one, we'd be taking about a close shave instead of an epic collapse.
I hate saying this is a "Must Win" for New York. Frankly, it's the most overrated expression in sports. But in this case, it's appropriate. The Knicks must win tonight in order to have any shot of going to the finals for the first time since 1999. A loss would mean they'd have to go 4-1 the rest of the way against an opponent that only gets stronger as the series goes on.
And that isn't very likely.