Having disposed of the hobbled Philadelphia 76ers in six games, the New York Knicks face the fully healthy and quite deep Indiana Pacers. The Pacers beat a Milwaukee Bucks team that had to deal with injuries to Giannis Antetokoumpo and Damian Lillard in six games. Clearly, both teams benefited from their opponents inability to be at full strength.
In this series, the only injured player of consequence is Julius Randle, who went down with a dislocated right shoulder at the end of January and is out for the playoffs. Mitchell Robinson is still hampered by his surgically repaired ankle, but will be able to play. The Pacers appear fully healthy.
To say these teams have a history would be putting it mildly. Prior to this series, they've met a total of seven times in the playoffs with Indiana holding a 4-3 edge. The two most notable meetings were in 1995, where Reggie Miller's 8 points in 8.9 seconds in game one of the Eastern Conference semifinals helped propel the Pacers to a series win; and in 1999, where Larry Johnson's last-second four-point play won game three of the ECF and helped get the Knicks to what would be their last trip to the finals.
The three keys to the Knicks winning this series are as follows:
1. Play good defense. During the regular season, the Pacers went 2-1 against the Knicks. In their two losses, New York allowed Indiana to score 125 and 140 points; in their one win, New York held Indiana to just 105 points. For the Knicks to prevail, they cannot get into a track meet with the Pacers. They must play a half-court offense and slow down the tempo.
2. Control the boards. The Knicks are one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA; the Pacers are one of the worst. Isaiah Hartenstein, Robinson, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart, who Tom Thibodeau uses at the 4 in place of the injured Randle, averaged 6.5, 7.8, 6.8 and 12.3 rebounds respectively against the Sixers. They must continue their domination on the glass against Indiana.
3. Thibs must use his bench more. There's no way to sugar coat this. Indiana has a deep bench and they utilized it quite effectively against Milwaukee. Without Bojan Bogdanovic, Thibodeau basically went with a seven-man rotation. The exception was game four when Hartenstein got into foul trouble and Thibs was forced to use Precious Achiuwa in the 4th quarter. What that means is that Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVencenzo and Hart are all playing more than 40 minutes per game. That is unsustainable, especially against a team as athletic as the Pacers. Like it not, Thibs must use Achuwa and Deuce McBride more; and maybe even Alec Burks, even if it's only for a couple of minutes.
If the Knicks can contain the Pacers high-powered offense, if they can control the boards, and if Thibs plays his bench more, the Knicks should move on to the Eastern Conference Finals. However, if the Pacers are able to set the tempo and Thibs remains stubborn, the Pacers will be victorious. I'm going with the former here. Knicks in seven.
Here are my predictions for the rest of the second round:
Eastern Conference:
Boston over Cleveland in six. Cavs fans were chanting "We want Boston" in their series clincher against the Orlando Magic. The basketball gods heard them.
Western Conference:
Denver over Minnesota in seven. This presupposes Jamal Murray is relatively healthy. If he's not, the Timberwolves will take the series in six.
Oklahoma City over Dallas in seven. It is criminal the way a majority of the media in this sport ignored what the Thunder have quietly accomplished this season. They're about to get an education.
Like I wrote in my last preview, if the Knicks move on, I'll preview the next round. If not, here are the two teams I think will meet in the NBA Finals.
Boston over Denver in seven. Kristaps Porziņģis returns and gets his ring.
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