Saturday, April 1, 2023

Rangers Flirting with Disaster



With six games to go in the regular season we know two things: One, barring a complete collapse by the New Jersey Devils and the Carolina Hurricanes - very unlikely - the Rangers will finish in third place in the Metropolitan division; and two, apart from Igor Shesterkin and Jaroslav Halak, this team isn't remotely ready for what promises to be a grueling postseason.

For the seventh time in the last thirteen games, the Rangers got off to a slow start and were forced to come from behind. Below is a list of those games in which they trailed early. I've included the goal deficit and, in parenthesis, what the final outcome was.

3/9    -  @ Canadiens 1-0 (W)
3/11  -  @ Sabres 1-0 (W)
3/12  -  @ Penguins 1-0 (OTL)
3/23  -  @ Hurricanes 1-0 (W)
3/25  -  @ Panthers 2-0 (W)
3/30  -  @ Devils 2-0 (L)
3/31  -  @ Sabres 2-0 (OTL)

As you can see, the problem is getting worse, not better. Over the last three games, the deficit has grown from one goal to two goals. And it was only due to the herculean efforts of Shesterkin and Halak that the deficit wasn't greater. And, yes, I know they won four of those games. That's not the point. The point is this team is too talented to be getting off to these kinds of starts.

Why does it matter how big the deficit is? Because overcoming a one-goal deficit is one thing; overcoming a multi-goal deficit is quite another, especially in the playoffs. The two opponents the Rangers are likely to face in the first round - the Hurricanes and the Devils - defend very well with the lead. Carolina, in particular, is among the best in the league at it. Be honest for a moment. You think the Rangers win in Raleigh if the Canes go up two goals? Me neither.

This is no longer an anomaly; it's become an alarming trend, and it's one that must be corrected soon. Shesterkin might be able to steal one or two games in a best of seven series, but there's no way in hell he steals four. And the way this team has been playing of late that is precisely what they'd be asking him to do. The last time a goaltender won four rounds all by himself was - wait for it - NEVER! Not even the great Andrei Vasilevski had to do that for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Elite goaltending puts you in a position to win the close games. Shesterkin did that for the Rangers last year in the playoffs. On numerous occasions he was asked to come up with critical saves when the score was tied or his team was ahead. For instance, after the Rangers went up 2-0 on a power play goal against the Hurricanes in game seven, Igor robbed Teuvo Teravainen point blank to keep Carolina off the board.

The difference between playing with a lead and playing from behind is huge. Teams that play with the lead typically expend less energy because they're not chasing the puck while teams that are playing from behind are forced to take more and more chances in order to draw even. In that very same game seven against Carolina last year, once the score got to be 3-0 Rangers, the Hurricanes had no choice but to open it up. And once they did that, the Blueshirts turned a close game into a rout.

Attempts to shrug this off as simply an example of a team that is just waiting for the playoffs to begin won't cut it. Going into New Jersey, the Rangers were two points out of second place. They had every incentive to win the game. The Devils were coming off a disheartening loss to the Islanders at UBS, while the Rangers had just drubbed the Columbus Blue Jackets 6-2 at MSG. The stars were all in alignment. For the first time since the start of the season, they had control of their own destiny. All they had to do was put in a solid 60 minute effort. Instead, they slept-walked through the first period and the Devils jumped out to a 2-0 lead. The Rangers were the better team over the last two periods, but they weren't able to overcome their woeful start.

Now imagine if instead of a regular season loss, that had been game seven of the first round. And don't kid yourself; it very well could be. Contrary to what I've been reading on Twitter, there's no magic switch that teams turn on once the postseason starts. You're either ready to go or you're not. If you recall, last year against the Pens, the Rangers had two of their worst performances of the season in games three and four in Pittsburgh and fell behind 3-1 in the series. Thankfully, the Blueshirts were playing a flawed team with a third-string goalie in net and they were able to come back and win. They will not be so fortunate this time around. If they play like they have of late, they will be hitting golf balls instead of hoisting the Cup this spring.

If you think I'm overreacting, consider this: last night in Cleveland, the Knicks, minus Julius Randle, beat the Cavaliers by 14 points; meanwhile in Buffalo, the Rangers, with an all-star cast, lost in OT to a Sabres team that was without Tage Thompson. 

If it's true that success is 10 percent inspiration and 90 percent perspiration, it would behoove the Rangers to start breaking a sweat before it's too late. Perhaps Gerard Gallant, who was verbally "pissed" after the loss in Buffalo, can start throwing helmets in the locker room.

Hey, it worked once before, didn't it?




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