Knicks Playoff Preview (Round Two)

Coming off an impressive five-game series win over the fourth-seed Cleveland Cavaliers, the fifth-seed New York Knicks begin a best of seven series against the eighth-seed Miami Heat Sunday afternoon at Madison Square Garden. At stake for the men in orange and blue is the first trip to the Eastern Conference finals since 2000. That was also be the last time the Knicks beat the Heat (4-3 in conference semifinals).

But while the Heat may be an eighth seed, they are not playing like one. Led by Jimmy Butler, who put up 56 and 42 points respectively in the last two games of their first round series against the number one seed Milwaukee Bucks, the Heat were one win away from going to the finals last season. A case can be made that this team is a legitimate title contender. It would behoove the Knicks to not take them lightly.

Both teams have been bitten by the injury bug. For the Knicks, Julius Randle re-injured his left ankle in game five of the Cavs series, while Quentin Grimes injured his left shoulder in game three. Both are listed as day-to-day and are vital to any hopes New York has of advancing.

For the Heat, Victor Oladipo - torn patellar tendon in the left knee - and Tyler Herro - injured hand - are both out for the series. Between the two, Herro is the bigger loss. He was second on the team in scoring during the regular season, averaging 20.1 points per game. For a team that wasn't terribly deep to begin with, not having him in the lineup will hurt.

Milwaukee coach Mike Budenholzer, for some reason, elected not to have anyone guard Butler. The result was that the all-star forward ran roughshod all over the Bucks. Butler averaged 37.6 points in the series. It is hard to imagine Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau making that same mistake.

But even with Thibodeau sicking someone on him, Butler will still get his points. That's okay, so long as he doesn't dominate the way he did against the Bucks. 25-30 is manageable; 35-40 and the Knicks will be in trouble.

As in the last round, the key to the Knicks success will be their depth. If Randle and Grimes are good to go, the Heat will be outmanned. If either are hobbled, though, this series will be up for grabs. Mitchell Robinson will play a huge role in the middle, as will Josh Hart and Immanuel Quickley coming off the bench. The Heat will try to contain Jalen Brunson; ultimately they will fail.

I expect this series to go the distance, with both teams winning at least one game in the other's arena. Barring overconfidence on their part, New York should prevail. 

Prediction: Knicks in seven.

Knicks Take Care of Business

The New York Knicks went into Cleveland last night up three games to one over the Cavaliers, needing just one more win to wrap up their series. And rather than punt it to a game six, they took care of business. It's nice to know there's one New York team that knows how to close out an opponent. And, yes, that was meant as a dig at you know who.

For the first time since 2013, the Knicks are in the second round of the NBA playoffs. And for the first time since 1999 - the last year they went to the finals - they won a best of seven series in five games or less.

To say this was a monumental accomplishment would be an understatement. I picked the Knicks in six, but even I didn't expect this kind of domination. At no point in game five - a game which the Cavs desperately needed to win to stay alive - did the Knicks trail. In fact, the closest Cleveland got to extending their season was when they pulled to within six (90-84) with 8:10 to go in the 4th quarter. For the next 3:58, the Cavs were held scoreless until Darius Garland - who had an abysmal series along with Donovan Mitchell - sank two free throws to make the score 96-86. Cleveland would not score again until Mitchell hit a jump shot with 3:06 remaining to make it 100-88. That's five minutes without a basket and only two measly free throws. Think about that.

Everyone contributed in this series. Jalen Brunson put on a clinic directing the Knicks offense. Mitchell Robinson had his way with both Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. R.J. Barrett redeemed himself over the last two games, putting up 26 and 21 points respectively. Immanuel Quickly and Obi Toppin came off the bench to provide much needed depth scoring; the latter playing the entire second half of game five after Julius Randle re-injured his left ankle late in the 2nd quarter.

And then there was Josh Hart, quite possibly the best trade deadline acquisition in franchise history. In a word, he was unconscious. For the series, he averaged 11.6 points and 7.8 rebounds, including twelve in game five, where he played all but 1:46. Since his arrival from Portland in February, the Knicks are 21-9.

New York out-rebounded Cleveland 227-186 for the series; and their bench outscored the Cavaliers bench 145-94, and that was with Quentin Grimes not starting in games four and five due to a shoulder injury he sustained in game three.

I haven't seen such tenacity - to steal a phrase from Clyde Frazier - from a Knicks team since the heydays of Patrick Ewing and Charles Oakley back in the '90s. They are without a doubt the hardest working team in the league. If they don't bring you out of your seat, it's probably because you're dead and you don't know it.

I rarely say this about any team I root for out of fear of jinxing them, but this Knicks team is capable of going deep in the playoffs. With the Milwaukee Bucks, the number one seed in the Eastern Conference, getting knocked off by the the eighth seed Miami Heat, New York has the home court advantage in the second round, thanks to the NBA's refusal to re-seed.

That doesn't mean they're a lock for the conference finals, mind you. The Heat, after all, were one win away from going to the finals last postseason. Let's face it, Jimmy Butler makes Donovan Mitchell look like a sixth man; he torched the Bucks defense in games four and five to the tune of 56 and 42 points respectively. Tom Thibodeau - who should be coach of the year - will have his hands full devising a defensive strategy to contain him. And we still don't know the extent of Randle's injury. If he's not a hundred percent, that will affect how the series plays out.

But for now, the Knicks can bask in the glory of what they accomplished in this series. They were the better team and they showed it. Two years ago, they were cowed by an Atlanta Hawks team that was deeper and more resilient. Now the tables have turned. They are the deeper and more resilient team. 

How deep and resilient, we are about to find out.

Power Outage

There are two ways of looking at Saturday night's 2-1 OT loss to the Devils. 

One, for the third consecutive game, the Rangers did a good job with their puck management, limiting the number of odd-man rushes New Jersey had out of their zone. Indeed, had the Blueshirts converted on just one of the five power plays they were awarded, they most likely would've won in regulation and we'd be talking about a potential sweep tonight.

Two, the Rangers let the opportunity of a lifetime slip through their fingers, and now they have to deal with an opponent that is not only alive and well but is one win away from taking control of this series; a series, to be honest, they have no business even being in.

In this instance, both statements are true. Yes, the Rangers have been, by far, the better team in this best of seven matchup. They have set the tempo in all three games and have forced the speedy Devils to work hard for what little scoring chances they've gotten. Dougie Hamilton's overtime winner was the first 5v5 goal his team has scored in nine and half periods. Think about that.

But like any wrestler knows all too well, you never let your opponent off the mat once you have him pinned. And the Rangers were on the verge of pinning the Devils with both shoulders. Less than a minute after Chris Kreider scored to make it 1-0, Ryan Graves was called for interference. All the Rangers had to do was score on their ensuing power play and it would've been 2-0. Not quite game, set and match, but pretty damn close. Let's put it this way, the fat lady would've been warming up her vocal cords between periods.

I cannot stress this enough. It is vital that the Rangers come out guns a blazin' tonight. No pussy footin' around. Enough with the mutual admiration society posing as a power play unit. This isn't an NHL all-star game; it's a playoff round; the first of what the Rangers hope will be four. At the Prudential Center, there was no dicking around with the man advantage. When they had the shot, they took it. The results - four for ten on the power play - speak for themselves. 

I don't know what happens to this team when they get in front of their home crowd, but if it isn't nipped in the bud soon - and by soon I mean tonight - they will be playing golf with the Islanders in May.

I'm not joking around here. Saturday night's win gave the Devils something they didn't have before: hope. And to paraphrase a famous line from a well-known movie, "Hope is a dangerous thing." Another win by the Devils and the trajectory of this series will change, perhaps irrevocably. The Rangers will have the unenviable task of having to win three games in their opponent's building. Impossible? No. Improbable? Yes.

The good news is that, for now, the Rangers are still the masters of their own fate. They have the ability to correct what went wrong; they've done it all season. They know the Devils didn't so much win the game as they lost it. And that will work in their favor. Though the Devils escaped with a victory, they are by no means out of the woods. Technically speaking, they are still very much the underdogs in this series, regardless of who Lindy Ruff starts in goal.

And that is precisely where the Rangers must keep them. The Devils will push harder than they did in game three, you can count on that. But the Rangers have the deeper and more experienced team. They were made for moments like this. If they stay focused and disciplined with the puck, and they do a better job finishing around the net - especially on the power play - they'll be playing the Carolina Hurricanes in the next round.

If they don't; if they squander this opportunity and allow the Devils to take the series, it will be the longest summer of their lives.

Road Sweet Home

Two up, two down, two to go.

Going into their best of seven series against the New Jersey Devils, I said the Rangers needed to do two things in order to advance: manage the puck well and win the special teams battle.

Well, mission accomplished - so far. Back-to-back, 5-1 road wins by the Blueshirts. Impressive doesn't begin to describe it. Through the first two games, they have not only shut down the NHL's fourth best offense, they've converted on four of ten power play opportunities, while killing seven of eight Devils power plays. New Jersey's top four scorers - Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Dougie Hamilton and Jesper Bratt - have a combined one goal and no assists. And that one goal by Hughes came courtesy of the lamest penalty shot ever awarded in a professional hockey game. 

Not even the most incurable optimist could've predicted such a dominant performance by this team. And while I'm not one to count my chickens before they hatch, the way the Rangers are playing, I'm not sure there's anything the Devils can do to alter the trajectory of this series. I haven't seen a Rangers team this locked in since - dare I say it? - 1994. That team - led by Mark Messier - swept the Islanders in the first round and beat the Washington Capitals 4-1 in the second, on its way to capturing the organization's first Stanley Cup in 54 years. And this team has more talent than that team. Think about that.

If ever there was an example where analytics was useless, it is here. Every so-called expert - including yours truly - thought the Devils were a terrible matchup for the Rangers. Their speed and skill would be difficult, if not impossible, to contend with. But after two games, it is the Blueshirts that have given the Devils fits. 

The Rangers have been incredibly disciplined with the puck, especially in the neutral zone, and that has limited the number of odd-man rushes the Devils have been able to generate. They have also taken away much of the ice from both Hughes and Hischier, virtually shutting down their passing lanes, In two games, Hughes has nine giveaways. To put that in perspective, the Rangers have that many as a team.

Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane are proving to be this franchise's best trade deadline pickups since Stephane Matteau, Brian Noonan and Craig MacTavish. Yes, I'm going there. Tarasenko has two goals while Kane has a goal and three assists. In game two, he stripped the puck from Bratt in the neutral zone, sprinted down the ice and beat Vitak Vanecek on a gorgeous backhander. So much for a bad hip.

But it is Adam Fox and Chris Kreider who are putting on a clinic in this series. Fox has six assists while Kreider has all four of his team's power play goals. The Devils have had no answer for either. And the Rangers have done all this with their number one center Mika Zibanejad contributing just one assist. Tell me you saw that coming.

Games three and four are at Madison Square Garden Saturday and Monday nights, If the Rangers are smart, they will avoid a repeat of what happened to them last postseason when they were up two games to none over the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference finals and lost in six. That was a bitter pill for this group to swallow. A learning experience, you could say. And while the Devils are no Lightning, they certainly have the ability to extend this series, if the Rangers let them.

That's why they can't allow that to happen. They must put the Devils out of their misery. The Rangers are the better team. They have superior depth, they have more experience, and if that isn't good enough, they have Igor Shesterkin. 

They are in control of their own destiny. This is their moment. They need to seize it.

*Note: an earlier version of this piece had a typo. The Rangers were up two games to none over the Tampa Bay Lightning last postseason. Unfortunately, I typed one instead of none. I have made the correction. Sorry for the confusion.

NHL Playoff Preview (Round One)

Another regular season is in the books. Now it's on to the real season. Sixteen teams - eight in each conference - begin their pursuit of Lord Stanley's Cup. But unlike last season, when the field was pretty much wide open, this time around there's a front runner. The Boston Bruins - 65-12-5 - not only won the President's Trophy going away, they broke both the single-season points record held by the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens (132) and the single-season wins record held by the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning and the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings (62 each).

But while the Bruins may be the odds-on favorites going into the playoffs, there are a couple of potential roadblocks that could upend their dreams of hoisting the Cup. For starters, the President's Trophy curse. Turns out it's a real thing. 

Since the award was first introduced in the 1985-86 season, only eight teams have won both the Trophy and the Cup. And since the lockout of 2004-05, there have been only two: the 2007-08 Red Wings and the 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks. And the Blackhawks, it should be noted, only had to play 48 regular-season games that season thanks to another league-imposed lockout. The point is it's hard to go at full throttle for an entire 82-game regular season and still have enough left in the tank for another potential 27 grueling postseason games.

But the biggest concern for Boston may have nothing to do with whether or not they have what it takes to survive a nine-month long marathon. The fact is going into the playoffs, the Bruins are the third oldest team in the NHL with an average age of 29.9. Only the Washington Capitals (30) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (31.5) are older. And neither of those two teams qualified for the postseason. If the Bruins were to win the Cup, they'd be the second oldest team in the last 25 years to do so. The 2001-02 Red Wings currently hold the record at 30.5.

So, you see, there's hope for the other fifteen teams after all.

Just as I did last year, I'll start with my team, the New York Rangers, and work my way down. As always, take what is said here with a very large grain of salt.

Eastern Conference:

New York vs. New Jersey: Anybody who saw the Devils as a legit Cup contender prior to the start of the season needs to produce the receipts right now. Yours truly had them as a "close but no cigar" team back in October. Led by Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, the Devils are the fastest team in the East and the third fastest in the league. Only the Edmonton Oilers Oilers and the Colorado Avalanche are faster. They were tied with the Buffalo Sabres for the third most goals scored this season with 291, and their goal differential of 65 was surpassed only by the Dallas Stars (67) and the Bruins (128).

I won't mince words here. This is the toughest opponent the Rangers could've drawn in the first round. Unlike last season, when they faced a flawed Pittsburgh team, the Devils have no discernible flaws to exploit. Meaning they're not likely to implode the way the Pens did. Vitek Vanecek may not be Vezina trophy material, but he's hardly Louis Domingue.

To beat the Devils, the Rangers are going to have to be incredibly disciplined with the puck. No reckless cross-ice passes at the blue line that can be intercepted and turned into scoring chances the other way. No selfless play in the offensive zone. If they have the shot, they must take it and not pass it up. They also can't afford to fall behind in these games. Unlike most teams that score early and then go into defend mode, the Devils are always looking to score the next goal. They have one gear in their transmission box: fifth. In their last meeting, the Rangers trailed 2-0 after the first period, and even though they outplayed the Devils over the final forty minutes, they were unable to get the tying goal passed Vanecek. Getting off to a good start must be priority one.

Priority two will be special teams. During the regular season, the Rangers power play was seventh best in the league at 24.1 percent. And while their penalty kill was only middle of the pack for most of the regular season, over the last 16 games, they've given up only three goals while shorthanded 35 times. Prorated, that would be good enough for second best in the league at 85.7 percent. Only the Bruins at 87.3 percent had a higher percentage.

On paper, this Rangers team is better than the one that went to the conference finals last year and was six wins away from their first Cup championship since 1994. They have, arguably, the deepest roster of any team in the postseason, with 20 plus goal scorers scattered throughout their top nine. They also have the better goaltender in the series. Over his last two months, Igor Shesterkin has posted save percentages of .932 and .941 respectively.

But here's the thing: paper doesn't win playoff series; players do. And to win this series, the Rangers best players - Zibanaejad, Panarin, Fox, Kreider, Shesterkin, Trouba and the Kids - are all going to have to be better than the Devils best players - Hughes, Hischier, Meier, Hamilton, Bratt and Mercer. It's that simple.

One caveat to consider. During the regular season, the Rangers had 13 overtime or shootout loses. Among playoff teams, only the Dallas Stars (14) had more. If just six of those OT / SO losses had been wins, the Rangers would have the home ice advantage in this series. That may or may not come back to haunt them.

That aside, though, I expect this series to go the distance, and it's not being overly cliché to predict that the team that makes the fewest mistakes will likely advance to the next round. Rangers in seven.

Boston vs. Florida: The Puddy Tats had a chance to avoid catching the Bruins in the first round. All they had to do was beat the Carolina Hurricanes at home and they'd be on their way to Raleigh next week. But in typical fashion, they flubbed it. Last season's President's Trophy winner now goes up against the real McCoy. The Bruins had the season of a lifetime. They are loaded at every position, and even if they don't go all the way, they have more than enough to throttle the Panthers. I would be shocked if this went more than five games. Bruins in five.

Toronto vs. Tampa Bay: A month ago I would've bet the ranch on the Bolts. But Kyle Dubas did a great job at the trade deadline transforming the Maple Leafs from a one trick pony into a deeper and tougher team. Ilya Samsonov gives Toronto something they haven't had in years: solid goaltending. And let's be honest, this is not the same Lightning team that went to three consecutive finals and won two Cups in a row. Leafs in six.

Carolina vs. Islanders: Am I being too sarcastic to suggest that watching paint dry would be more entertaining than watching these two offensively-challenged overachievers knocked the shit out of each other for a week and a half? The Isles do have the better goaltending, so that should give them a fighting chance. Not having Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty will eventually catch up with the Canes, but not in this round. Hurricanes in six.

Western Conference:

Vegas vs. Winnipeg: The Golden Knights have proven a lot of skeptics wrong this season - myself included. Without one of their top forwards in Mark Stone and with a revolving door for goaltending, they are the number one seed in the West. Congrats to Bruce Cassidy, who did a helluva job behind the bench. They probably don't have the horses to get past Colorado and Edmonton but they have more than enough to dispose of the Jets. Golden Knights in five.

Colorado vs. Seattle: Not having the services of Gabriel Landeskog for the playoffs will severely test the depth of a team that already lost its number two center Nazem Kadri to the Calgary Flames during the off season. If I were the Avs, I'd be a little concerned about facing a Kraken team that can put the puck in the next and, in only its second year of existence, is playing with house money. Avalanche in seven.

Edmonton vs. Los Angeles: Want to hear something crazy? Over the last seven games, the Oilers have given up a paltry six goals. No that wasn't a misprint. The team with the best offense on Planet Earth has goal's against average of under a goal per game in their last seven. Are we witnessing the beginning of the NHL's next dynasty? Oilers in five.

Dallas vs. Minnesota: Last season, the Stars took the Calgary Flames to a game seven in the first round before finally losing to them in OT. This season, they're one of the best teams in the NHL with a potent offense and a solid defense. The Wild will be without Joel Eriksson Ek for at least the first four games of the series. That maybe four too many. Stars in five.

Once the first round is over, I'll make my predictions for round two.

Knicks Playoff Preview (Round One)

It was two years ago that the Knicks entered the playoffs as the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, and were quickly dispatched by the fifth seed Atlanta Hawks in five games. To say that was a painful loss would be putting it mildly.

But as the Monkees once sang, that was then, this is now. This year's Knicks enter the playoffs as the fifth seed in the East, but unlike that 2020-21 team, they are a lot deeper and a lot more potent. No longer are they depended solely on the offensive prowess of Julius Randle. They have other options like Obi Toppin, Quentin Grimes and Immanuel Quickley who should win the Sixth Man of the Year award. 

But by far the biggest additions to this Knicks roster have been Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart; the former signed as a free agent over the summer; the latter acquired at the trade deadline for Cam Reddish. Brunson gives this team what it's lacked since the glory days of the '90s: a bonafide point guard who can run the offense. And Hart provides much needed depth and energy coming off the bench. Since his arrival from Portland back in February, the Knicks are 17-8.

It's hard not to love this team. Coached by Tom Thibodeau, it's arguably, the hardest working group of players in the NBA. There is no load management here. If you're healthy enough to play, you suit up. Period. And in a league that over-indulges its stars, often to the detriment of its fans, that's a breath of fresh air.

So how will this resilient bunch fare against the fourth seed Cleveland Cavaliers? Glad you asked. It all comes down to Donovan Mitchell, the elite-level guard who supposedly was headed to New York during the offseason. That was before Cleveland stepped in and upped their offer to the Utah Jazz.

Knicks fans at the time were livid with Leon Rose for fumbling the ball at the one-yard line. But in retrospect, not closing that deal turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Had the Knicks landed Mitchell it likely would've cost them R.J. Barrett, Mitchell Robinson and Toppin, plus three of their four unprotected first round draft picks. Leaving aside the picks for a minute, can you imagine what this team would look like without those three players? Not to mention that with Mitchell on the team, it's doubtful the Knicks would've signed Brunson. That also means no Hart at the deadline.

Below is a comparison of what the Knicks would've looked like with and without Mitchell.

Without Donovan Mitchell

Starters:

Mitchell Robison C

Julius Randle PF

R.J. Barrett SF

Jalen Brunson PG

Quentin Grimes SG

Bench:

Isaiah Hartenstein C

Obi Toppin PF

Immanuel Quickley SF

Josh Hart SG

Deuce McBride PG

With Donovan Mitchell

Starters:

Hartenstein C

Randle PF

Quickley SF

Mitchell SG

McBride PG

Bench:

Jericho Sims C

Grimes G

Derrick Rose G

Seriously, which team would you rather have? Before you answer that, consider that the Knicks, without Mitchell, finished only four games behind the Cavaliers in the standings. While it's clear that the starting lineup would be slightly better with Mitchell, the bench, sans Grimes, would suffer greatly. Imagine a Tom Thibodeau team without a reliable bench. That is ostensibly what the Knicks would be had Rose agreed to Utah's demands last summer. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make.

Now onto the matchup.

For the Knicks to prevail, they cannot let Mitchell and Darius Garland dominate the way they are capable of doing. Both players average over 20 points per game, with Mitchell averaging 28. Assuming Randle's ankle is sufficiently healed, the Knicks will have a decided edge in the front court over Evan Mobley and Lamar Stevens. If it isn't, Toppin will likely get the start. All that is moot, however, if they can't contain the Cavs backcourt.

During the regular season, the Knicks were fourth best in the NBA in turnovers, averaging just 13 per game. Against the Cavs, they averaged 15.5. The Knicks were also third best in offensive rebounds, averaging 12.6 per game. The latter is where Robinson and Hartenstein will earn their paychecks.

I expect Thibodeau to rotate his players and use his bench effectively. That means Quickley and Hart will get a ton of minutes. The Cavs, as loaded as their starting lineup is, will not be able to handle the Knicks depth. New York took three out of four from Cleveland during the regular season, and I see nothing that makes me think that trend won't continue in the postseason.

Prediction: Knicks in six.

NHL Power Rankings (Pre-Postseason)

I'm not much of a fan of power rankings during the season. Seriously, unless you're a fan, who cares how a team is doing in December or January? After all, it's not how you start but how you finish, right? So with the playoffs a week away, I thought I'd entertain you with my first, and probably last, NHL power rankings (Pre-Postseason). If you take a gander at how my pre-season predictions went - that is after you get done chuckling - you'll know why I don't particularly like doing these.

One difference between my power rankings and others is that I break mine down by conference. Until the NHL goes to a 1-16 playoff format, it doesn't make sense to do a league-wide power ranking. Yes, I know the Eastern conference is better than the Western conference. So what? You play the hand you're dealt.

While each conference has eight teams that make the playoffs, realistically only six have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. Therefore, I'll confine my analysis to those teams starting with the East.

Eastern Conference:

1. Boston Bruins: The no brainer of the decade, the Bruins are on track to have the best regular season since the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens. They could also be the first President's trophy winner since the 2013 Chicago Blackhawks to win the Cup. Apart from some age at center - Pierre Bergeron and David Krejci are 37 and 36 respectively - there are no weaknesses. They have depth at forward and on defense, and they have the best goaltending tandem in the league. If they don't get extended in an early round, they could be unstoppable.

2. New York Rangers: They seem to be hitting their stride at just the right moment. They have arguably the top three lines in the NHL thanks to the wheeling and dealing of Chris Drury. Since the beginning of March, Igor Shesterkin has a save percentage of over .930, and with the return of Ryan Lindgren, they're solid on the backline. The only question is whether this incredibly talented group is prepared to play a full 60 minutes of hockey over four rounds. If the answer is yes, they could go all the way.

3. Tampa Bay Lightning: They're not as deep as the team that won back to back Cups, but any core that has Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos is not to be trifled with. Despite getting lit up by the Rangers at the Garden, Andrei Vasilevskiy is still one of the best money goaltenders in the NHL. They do have a losing road record, which given that they likely won't have home ice in any of their matchups, could dampen their prospects.

4. Toronto Maple Leafs: Ryan O'Reilly should be back in time for the start of the postseason, and that is welcomed news for an organization that hasn't won a playoff round since 2004, or a Stanley Cup since 1967. Fortunately for the Leafs, Ilya Samsonov has taken over the goaltending duties from Matt Murray, which gives them at least a fighting chance against the Lightning.

5. New Jersey Devils: Apart from the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche, no team in the NHL is faster on the puck than the Devils. Tom Fitzgerald has done a masterful job building a team that is young and explosive. Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier are the best one-two punch at center in the conference. The only potential hiccup is between the pipes. Vitek Vanecek is no one's idea of an elite goalie.

6. Carolina Hurricanes: Rod Brind'Amour may be one of the best coaches in the NHL, but even he can't overcome the loss of Max Pacioretty and Andrei Svechnikov. And even at full strength, their goaltending is above average at best. They should survive one round, but they don't match up well against either the Rangers or Devils. Don Waddell needed to do more at the trade deadline. He didn't. 

Western Conference:

1. Colorado Avalanche: Losing Nazem Kadri to free agency hurts them at center. However, they are still a threat to repeat as champs, but only if Gabriel Landeskog returns by the playoffs. Alexandar Georgiev is an upgrade from Darcy Kemper in goal.

2. Edmonton Oilers: Stuart Skinner gives the Oilers something they haven't had in a long time: reliable goaltending. And deadline acquisition Mattias Ekholm gives them a physical presence on the backline. Their top six is all world and speaks for itself.

3. Minnesota Wild: It's a mystery how Bill Guerin hasn't won GM of the year. For the second straight season his team is among the best in the conference, despite carrying $12 million in dead cap, courtesy of his predecessor, Chuck Fletcher. Apparently the Flyers aren't the only organization Fletcher screwed over. The man should be permanently barred from the league.

4. Dallas Stars: If Jake Oettinger plays like he did last postseason against the Calgary Flames when he stood on his head, the Stars will be a threat to go to the finals. This is a solid team with a vastly improved offense and a still very stingy defense.

5. Vegas Golden Knights: Yours truly didn't have them as a playoff team this season. So much for my prowess as a talent evaluator. Given that they lost Mark Stone for the season and have had to use four goalies, it's nothing short of amazing they're doing this well. Bruce Cassidy has done a helluva job behind the bench.

6. Los Angeles Kings: Adding Kevin Fiala makes them a more explosive offense. Unfortunately, their defense has regressed from last season's. Among playoff teams in the West, only the Oilers have given up more goals.

Next week, I'll make my playoff predictions, once we know what the matchups are.

Rangers Flirting with Disaster

With six games to go in the regular season we know two things: One, barring a complete collapse by the New Jersey Devils and the Carolina Hurricanes - very unlikely - the Rangers will finish in third place in the Metropolitan division; and two, apart from Igor Shesterkin and Jaroslav Halak, this team isn't remotely ready for what promises to be a grueling postseason.

For the seventh time in the last thirteen games, the Rangers got off to a slow start and were forced to come from behind. Below is a list of those games in which they trailed early. I've included the goal deficit and, in parenthesis, what the final outcome was.

3/9    -  @ Canadiens 1-0 (W)

3/11  -  @ Sabres 1-0 (W)

3/12  -  @ Penguins 1-0 (OTL)

3/23  -  @ Hurricanes 1-0 (W)

3/25  -  @ Panthers 2-0 (W)

3/30  -  @ Devils 2-0 (L)

3/31  -  @ Sabres 2-0 (OTL)

As you can see, the problem is getting worse, not better. Over the last three games, the deficit has grown from one goal to two goals. And it was only due to the herculean efforts of Shesterkin and Halak that the deficit wasn't greater. And, yes, I know they won four of those games. That's not the point. The point is this team is too talented to be getting off to these kinds of starts.

Why does it matter how big the deficit is? Because overcoming a one-goal deficit is one thing; overcoming a multi-goal deficit is quite another, especially in the playoffs. The two opponents the Rangers are likely to face in the first round - the Hurricanes and the Devils - defend very well with the lead. Carolina, in particular, is among the best in the league at it. Be honest for a moment. You think the Rangers win in Raleigh if the Canes go up two goals? Me neither.

This is no longer an anomaly; it's become an alarming trend, and it's one that must be corrected soon. Shesterkin might be able to steal one or two games in a best of seven series, but there's no way in hell he steals four. And the way this team has been playing of late that is precisely what they'd be asking him to do. The last time a goaltender won four rounds all by himself was - wait for it - NEVER! Not even the great Andrei Vasilevski had to do that for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Elite goaltending puts you in a position to win the close games. Shesterkin did that for the Rangers last year in the playoffs. On numerous occasions he was asked to come up with critical saves when the score was tied or his team was ahead. For instance, after the Rangers went up 2-0 on a power play goal against the Hurricanes in game seven, Igor robbed Teuvo Teravainen point blank to keep Carolina off the board.

The difference between playing with a lead and playing from behind is huge. Teams that play with the lead typically expend less energy because they're not chasing the puck while teams that are playing from behind are forced to take more and more chances in order to draw even. In that very same game seven against Carolina last year, once the score got to be 3-0 Rangers, the Hurricanes had no choice but to open it up. And once they did that, the Blueshirts turned a close game into a rout.

Attempts to shrug this off as simply an example of a team that is just waiting for the playoffs to begin won't cut it. Going into New Jersey, the Rangers were two points out of second place. They had every incentive to win the game. The Devils were coming off a disheartening loss to the Islanders at UBS, while the Rangers had just drubbed the Columbus Blue Jackets 6-2 at MSG. The stars were all in alignment. For the first time since the start of the season, they had control of their own destiny. All they had to do was put in a solid 60 minute effort. Instead, they slept-walked through the first period and the Devils jumped out to a 2-0 lead. The Rangers were the better team over the last two periods, but they weren't able to overcome their woeful start.

Now imagine if instead of a regular season loss, that had been game seven of the first round. And don't kid yourself; it very well could be. Contrary to what I've been reading on Twitter, there's no magic switch that teams turn on once the postseason starts. You're either ready to go or you're not. If you recall, last year against the Pens, the Rangers had two of their worst performances of the season in games three and four in Pittsburgh and fell behind 3-1 in the series. Thankfully, the Blueshirts were playing a flawed team with a third-string goalie in net and they were able to come back and win. They will not be so fortunate this time around. If they play like they have of late, they will be hitting golf balls instead of hoisting the Cup this spring.

If you think I'm overreacting, consider this: last night in Cleveland, the Knicks, minus Julius Randle, beat the Cavaliers by 14 points; meanwhile in Buffalo, the Rangers, with an all-star cast, lost in OT to a Sabres team that was without Tage Thompson. 

If it's true that success is 10 percent inspiration and 90 percent perspiration, it would behoove the Rangers to start breaking a sweat before it's too late. Perhaps Gerard Gallant, who was verbally "pissed" after the loss in Buffalo, can start throwing helmets in the locker room.

Hey, it worked once before, didn't it?