Horvat Deal Doesn't Impact Drury or the Rangers

To be honest, I was surprised that Lou Lamoriello pulled the trigger on the Bo Horvat deal. Frankly, I didn't think he had it in him. From everything we know about the man, he's strictly a role player type GM. Just take a gander at the Devils teams he put together in the '90s. He has a history of avoiding big names with equally big contracts. And make no mistake about it: it will take a lot of money to re-sign Horvat. Think at least $9.5 million x 8 years. If Mathew Barzal's AAV is $9.15 million x 8 years, you can bet the ranch the starting price for Horvat will be north of that. And that's assuming Lamoriello locks him up before the summer, which if he doesn't makes this "rental" a bust.

But while Horvat instantly becomes the Isles best player, his presence alone doesn't automatically catapult them into the postseason. That's because apart from Anders Lee there isn't a single winger on this roster that puts the fear of God into an opposing team. So unless Lou has another trade up his sleeve, I would hold off reserving those playoff tickets, if I were you. That might explain why Lamoriello protected the first round pick he sent to Vancouver. In the event they don't make into the tournament, he doesn't want to blow his chance at drafting Connor Bedard. Lou may be stubborn but he's not stupid.

So how does the Horvat deal impact Chris Drury's potential moves at the trade deadline? In a word, it doesn't. That's because Horvat is a center and the Rangers are set at that position. We can debate how effective Vincent Trocheck's offense has been since his arrival on Broadway last summer, but he is an improvement over Ryan Strome. If you can't see that, then maybe you should stop reading this blog. And after four years of promissory notes, Filip Chytil appears to finally be delivering on his potential. The third-line center has been one of the better forwards on this team the last few weeks, especially since Gerard Gallant reunited the Kid line. Drury's only problem will be re-signing him during the offseason.

As I wrote in my last piece, the Rangers number one need will be adding a scoring winger. And if they can find one cheap enough, maybe a shutdown center, as well. The problem for Drury won't be what his fellow GMs do, but available cap space. Even with Sammy Blais' contract off the books - and I assume Drury is actively working to make that a reality - the Rangers will only have about $7.5 million in deadline cap space to work with. That doesn't come come close to what they had last season when Drury was able to add four valuable pieces to help the Rangers on their playoff run.

Add to that the fact that, unlike last season when we knew who the top eight teams were in the Eastern conference, this season, there are eleven teams vying for eight playoff spots. In the Western conference, that number is ten. Meaning Drury will have a lot more chefs in the kitchen to contend with, all of them looking to make a soufflé from scratch. For an organization that values its youth and doesn't want to repeat the mistakes of the past, Drury will have to thread the needle here.

So, yes, the Horvat deal helps the Islanders, but it doesn't impact the Rangers in the slightest. Drury's job isn't any harder now than it was a day or two ago. This is still a playoff team that could use some filling out. How much will depend on what the seller is asking for and what the buyer is willing to pay.

Rangers Still Have Some Nagging Concerns

Let's start with the good news. Since Jacob Trouba threw his helmet at the boards in a game against the Chicago Blackhawks at the Garden back on December 3 - a 5-2 loss which dropped their record to 11-10-5 - the Rangers have gone 15-4-3. During that stretch, they put together a seven-game win streak and managed to beat some pretty good teams like the Vegas Golden Knights, Toronto Maple Leafs, New Jersey Devils, Carolina Hurricanes. Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars. Even in three of the losses - 3-2 to the Pittsburgh Penguins in regulation, 2-1 to the Tampa Bay Lightning in a shootout and 3-2 to the Toronto Maple Leafs last night in overtime - the Rangers were the better team for much of the game.

In fact, the only duds I was able to find were a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Washington Capitals coming off the Christmas break and a 2-1 loss against the lowly Montreal Canadiens eleven days ago. Both games were at the Garden. I was tempted to include the 3-1 loss to the Boston Bruins last week, but chose not to. The fact is the Bruins are so hot right now, even if the Rangers had played a perfect game, I doubt they would've beaten them. Boston is on track to finish the season with 139 points. To put that in perspective, the 1976-77 Montreal Canadiens, generally acknowledged to be the greatest hockey team ever assembled, had 132.

But here's the bad news. With all that the Rangers have accomplished over the last few weeks, there are still some nagging concerns that need to be addressed if they have any hope of winning the Stanley Cup.

The Power Play continues to struggle. Over the last twenty-two games, the Rangers have converted 14 of 61 power play chances for a 22.9 percent efficiency. On the surface, that doesn't sound too shabby. However, six of those power play goals were scored against the Florida Panthers, Columbus Blue Jackets, St Louis Blues and Blackhawks; teams that play defense about as well as Marv Throneberry used to play first base for the New York Mets; one goal against the Hurricanes was actually a pass that the goalie fanned on; and two more were scored while the Rangers were on a 5 on 3 man advantage. In the five games where the Rangers lost by a goal either in regulation, overtime or the shootout, they went a collective 0 for 12 on the power play, including last night's brutal 3-2 OT loss in Toronto, in which Chris Kreider shanked a tip in of a Mika Zibanejad goal-mouth pass with the Blueshirts ahead 2-1 in the third period. Just one power play goal in each of those games would've likely changed the outcome. Which brings us to the next nagging concern.

Lack of a killer instinct. There's just no way around it. This team, for all its talent, has been unable to put away its opponents. Last season, the Rangers were 48-5-4 when tied or ahead going into the third period. So far this season, the Rangers are 22-3-8 when tied or ahead going into the third. The good news is that they managed to salvage a point in each of those eight OT/SO losses; the bad news is they surrendered eight points that were theirs for the taking. And that's eight points too many for a team that's currently in third place in the Metropolitan division and is trailing the Devils by six points. Think about this. If the Rangers had scored just one additional goal in six of those eight non-regulation losses, they'd be in second place right now, only two points behind the first place Hurricanes. If they had scored an extra goal in all eight games, they'd be in first. That, right there, is the difference between having home ice in the first two rounds of the playoffs vs. playing a game seven on the road in all four.

Now you know why Chris Drury didn't look too happy in the above picture. He watched his team - a very talented team - outplay the Maple Leafs for two and half periods, only to blow a one-goal lead late in the third and lose the game in overtime. He's seen this movie too many times this season and it never ends well. He was tasked by James Dolan to turn this franchise around and make it into a legitimate contender. In just his first full season as GM and President, the Rangers made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals. They were two wins away from their first Cup final appearance since 2014 and six wins away from their first Stanley Cup championship since 1994.

He knows the stakes. He willingly signed up for them. Failure is not an option. This team, with all its warts, must win at least one round in the playoffs; two would be preferable. The fact is, though, if the regular season were to end today, the Rangers would open up against the Devils and likely lose in six or seven games.

That's why these next few weeks are so critical. The trade deadline is March 3. Drury has to find at least one scoring winger and a shutdown center. And he has to be able to acquire both without doing what his predecessor did: mortgaging the future. Assuming he can unload Sammy Blais, either through waivers or by trading him, he'll have over $7 million in deadline cap space. That should be sufficient to get the job done. The problem is he won't be the only GM looking to improve his team's playoff prospects. Across the Hudson, his counterpart Tom Fitzgerald will be working the phones for the Devils. I have no doubt Dolan has made it abundantly clear to Drury that losing to New Jersey is a non-starter. Twice before this organization has been eclipsed by a cross-town rival: the Islanders in the '80s and the Devils in the '90s and '00s. The third time, I can assure you, will not be the charm.

Last season, after 48 games, the Rangers were 31-13-4 for 66 points. This season, after 48 games, they're 26-14-8 for 60 points. Bottom line? This team can still win the Cup. Or it can go out in the first round.

The Giants Glass is Half Full

It sucks losing, I know; it particularly sucks when the opponent you lose to resides 90 miles down the Jersey Turnpike. And, trust me, Eagles fans will be insufferable if their team goes on to win the Super Bowl next month. When they won their first title in 2017, you'd have thought Vince Lombardi and Bart Starr had been resurrected from the dead. Philadelphia may be the city of brotherly love, but its sports fans can be pompous assholes.

But while the final score on Saturday may have been lopsided, in no way, shape or form did it detract from what the Giants accomplished this season. Despite what Mike Francesa said, this team exceeded all expectations. Coming off a 4-13 record - their fifth losing campaign in a row - the so-called football "experts" scoffed at the notion that Brian Daboll and Co. could turn this ship around. Indeed, yours truly had them going 6-11. That they finished 9-7-1, and made it all the way to the Divisional round of the playoffs, should qualify as the "Ripley's Believe It Or Not" story of the decade.

So now what? With the season over, what comes next? Yes, the glass is half full instead of half empty, but at the end of the day it doesn't matter. You still have half a glass of water. They may have been the most resilient team in the NFL but spit and polish doesn't get you a Super Bowl ring. As painful as it was to watch the Eagles humiliate the Giants on national TV, they were the better team in every measurable way.

Joe Schoen has his work cut out for him. Thanks to his predecessor's incompetence, he was saddled with roughly $53 million in dead cap this past season. He also had another $21.1 million of useless salary on the books in the person of Kenny Golladay, whose lone touchdown came in week 18 at Philly. Next season, Golladay's cap hit will be $21.4 million. If the Giants buy him out after June 1, the dead cap hit would be $7.9 million in 2023 and $6.8 million in 2024. When you factor in the $3.6 million in dead cap from Kadarius Toney, the Giants will have about $58 million in available cap space to go shipping with during the off season. 

That may seem like a lot of money, but it really isn't. That's because the lion's share of it will go to Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley, assuming Schoen elects to re-sign them. And based on what they did in 2022, it's hard to imagine them not coming back. 

Jones threw for 3205 yards with 15 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. He also rushed for a club record 708 yards. His quarterback rating of 60.8 was 7th best in the NFL. To say he had a career year would be an understatement. Barkley had his best season as a Giant since his rookie year with 1312 rushing yards, good for 4th best in the league. More than that, he proved he could stay healthy, which was a major concern going into the season. Both players have expressed a desire to return in 2023.

But at what cost? Jones and Barkley made $8.3 and $7.2 million respectively this season. A three-year deal for Jones would likely come in around $35 million per season. Barkley supposedly turned down a three-year, $36 million offer and is reportedly looking for a contract similar to the $16 million Christian McCaffrey is making. Let's say both sides meet in the middle. $14 million plus $35 million comes out to $49 million. For those with an adding machine, that comes to $49 million, which leaves Schoen with just $9 million to plug the many holes on this team. If you were paying close attention throughout the season, you know that isn't nearly enough.

For the Giants to become genuine contenders, two areas in particular must be beefed up: wide receiver and linebacker. Regarding the former, the Giants were the only playoff team not to have a 1,000 yard receiver. Darius Slayton led them with 724 yards; Richie James, who dropped a sure touchdown on Saturday, was next with 569; and Jones's favorite target, Isaiah Hodgins - a pick up from Buffalo after being waived - had 392. It's obvious that Schoen will have to go through the draft to land an elite receiver.

Regarding the latter, the way the Eagles ran roughshod all over the Giants both on Saturday and at MetLife in December should tell you everything you need to know about their lack of depth at this position. Clearly, Jihad Ward and Jaylon Smith weren't the answers here. Again, with limited cap space, Schoen may have to address this need through the draft as well. 

One tool available to him that could help is the franchise tag. Each team is permitted to franchise tag one player per season. Considering how expensive both Jones and Barkley might be to retain, Schoen could go that route with one of them to save some cap space. And if he can get a couple of players to renegotiate their contracts, that will help as well. One thing is certain: the talent gap that exists between the Giants and the top teams in the league isn't going to be bridged anytime soon.

Bottom line: this is still a rebuild. A rebuild that may be ahead of schedule, but a rebuild nonetheless. As Schoen emphasized in his press conference yesterday, patience is important. "Teams are never one player away," he said.

It's reassuring having adults run the show, isn't it?

Giants Near Perfect Win in Minnesota

This time, there was no last second 61 yard field goal to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. This time, the better team won the game.

The New York Giants flew into Minnesota and played a near perfect playoff game against the Vikings Sunday. And for their efforts, they move on to the Divisional round. The final score was 31-24, Big Blue.

Let's be honest. This was the best playoff matchup the Giants could've hoped for. The Vikings, despite an impressive 13-4 regular-season record, were quite possibly the weakest division winner in the NFL, and that includes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their defense was tied for third worst in the league along with the Colts and Lions, surrendering 427 points. A look under hood revealed a team that had been playing with fire all season long, and this time they got burned. The fact is had the Giants not committed two turnovers and had a punt blocked in week 16, they would've won that game, too. For the Jints, it came down to not shooting themselves in the foot.

But just because the Vikes were a paper tiger, that shouldn't diminish what the Giants accomplished here. Put succinctly, this was the best postseason game this franchise has played in since the 2011 season: the last time they won the Super Bowl. Just look at these stats: The Giants led in first downs: 28-21; rushing yards: 142-61; total yards: 431-332; and time of possession: 33:36-26:24. They literally made two mistakes the entire game: a procedural penalty in the red zone that wiped out a touchdown and a dropped pass by Darius Slayton late in the 4th quarter that would've allowed them to run out the clock. In the end, neither proved costly.

It goes without saying that the job Brain Daboll and his staff have done with this team is nothing short of miraculous. They literally took a 4-13 team and in less than a year transformed it into a 9-7-1 playoff team. But more than that, they have changed the culture in a locker room that for the better part of a decade had gotten used to losing. These players now believe in themselves and it shows on the field. As I wrote last October, we haven't seen such discipline from a Giants team since "the glory days of Bill Parcels."

Mike Kafka called a perfect game, dialing up just the right plays to exploit a porous Vikings defense. Daniel Jones had his best game as a Giant, completing 24 of 35 passes for 301 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed for 78 yards. Saquon Barkly had over 100 all-purpose yards; 53 on the ground and 56 through the air.

And on the other side of the ball, Wink Martindale's defense held the league's number one receiver, Justin Jefferson, to a paltry 47 yards. In the week 16 game, Jefferson lit up the Giants secondary for 133 yards. And while the Giants didn't record a single sack against Kirk Cousins, they pressured him on virtually every passing down. It will be very difficult for Joe Schoen to keep both coordinators from jumping ship next season.

But while the Giants deserve to bask in the glory of their well-deserved win, their next opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, will be far more formidable. The only game this season in which the Giants were thoroughly dominated from start to finish was against the Eagles at Met Life in week 14. Philly cruised to a 48-22 rout. Believe me when I say the score didn't remotely reflect just how bad a whooping the Eagles put on the G-Men. If the Giants have any chance at pulling off the upset Saturday, they will have to be more than just perfect; they are going to have to hope that Jalen Hurts's injured right shoulder is still bothering him. Because the Eagles, unlike the Vikings, can play defense and they know how to rush the quarterback. They led the NFL with 70 sacks this season.

No doubt about it, this will be Daboll's toughest challenge since becoming Giants' head coach. 

The Skinny on Carlos Correa

"We were unable to reach an agreement. We wish Carlos all the best."

Well, it was nice while it lasted. 

Just over two and a half weeks after the New York Mets announced they had signed Carlos Correa to a 12 year, $315 million deal, and roughly two weeks after it was learned they had issues with his medicals, the Minnesota Twins swooped in and signed him to a 6 year, $200 million deal.

The Mets are now the second team to express concerns over the long-term durability of Correa. Only days before the Mets announced their deal, the San Francisco Giants walked away from a 13 year, $350 million deal.

Let's get one thing straight. The idea that Steve Cohen got outbid by the Twins is absurd. If you look at the offer the Mets made, they were willing to guarantee the first six years, which comes to $157.5 million. Assuming Correa passed his yearly physicals, which would've commenced in year seven, they were willing to guarantee the remaining six years for another $157.5 million. The Twins offer was $200 million over six years, with another $70 million spread out over four years, again based on him passing yearly physicals.

The difference comes out to $45 million. So basically, Correa took less term and less overall money to get more upfront money, which tells you both he and his agent Scott Boras knew that his surgically repaired ankle might not hold up the entire 12 years. Why else would they leave that much money on the table?

So why wouldn't Cohen just swallow hard and match the Twins offer? Why should he? Think about it. His overall offer was higher. All Correa had to do was submit to yearly physicals in years seven thru twelve to get his money. The fact that he balked tells you everything you need to know. If there was no problem with the ankle, then there shouldn't have been any problem taking the Mets offer.

But let's for the moment give Correa the benefit of the doubt. Let's say that he felt indignant about having to subject himself to yearly physicals and decided to grab the more lucrative upfront offer. $42.5 million over six years is a shit load of money. Properly invested, it could set Correa up for life, even if he never plays another inning after the six years are up.

If that was Boras's thinking, however, it was pretty short sighted, in my opinion. The fact is even with Correa in their lineup, the Twins went 78-84. Without Correa in their lineup, the Mets went 101-61 and made the playoffs. With Cohen willing to spend whatever it takes to win, Correa would've been far better off playing in New York than in Minnesota. Not to mention Correa could have made up the difference in salary over the six years in endorsements alone.

This is the problem I have with agents. It's all about the almighty buck with them. They seldom consider a player's career when deciding which team to go with. Mike Trout is a case in point. In 2019, Trout's agent, Craig Landis, negotiated a ten year $426 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels. At the time, it was the largest contract awarded to a professional athlete. Here's the problem. The Angels are one of the worst teams in baseball. They have not had a winning season since 2015, and last year finished third in the A.L. West with a 73-89 record. Imagine what a player like Trout (.283, 40, 80) could do on a contender.

As for the Mets, they will now have to look elsewhere for that "one more hitter" to put them over the top. It won't be easy. Some names that have surfaced are Trey Mancini, Adam Duvall and Andrew McCutchen. While all three are free agents and could be signed for considerably less than Correa, none had the kind of year Correa did in 2022. Mancini, in particular, had a disappointing postseason for the Houston Astros.

Then there's Shohei Ohtani. The Angels DH / pitcher will be a free agent next season and Cohen is one of the few owners capable of signing him to a long-term contract. As I wrote last September, Ohtani would instantly become the Mets best player. Even if it meant gutting the farm system, Billy Eppler should do it. Players like him do not grow on trees.

But that's 2024. The Mets still need another bat for the 2023 season. Even with all the money Cohen has committed to this team, they still have basically the same lineup as last year. And that was good enough for second place in the N.L. East and a first round exit in the playoffs. The Phillies are a better team and the Braves are, well, the Braves. 

Translation: the postseason is not a given.

It's Not "Just" A Game

What happened to Damar Hamlin in Monday night's football game between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals has no precedent in NFL history. Not even the brutal hit by Jack Tatum on Darryl Stingley in a 1978 preseason game that left Stingley paralyzed comes close.

An entire nation saw a football player suffer a cardiac arrest after making what looked like a routine tackle. And had it not been for the quick and skilled response of medical professionals in the stadium, he would never have made it to the hospital alive. Even now, this young man remains in critical condition. Assuming he survives, he is in for a very long recovery. Every decent and caring human being, fan of the sport or not, needs to keep him, his family and teammates in their prayers.

But while it was correct for the league to postpone the game Monday night after it was obvious the players and coaches were too distraught to continue, its subsequent decision Tuesday to not resume it this week is a mistake. Let me explain.

This was no mere game between two AFC rivals. It had playoff implications for no fewer than four teams: the Bills, the Bengals, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens. Going into last weekend, the AFC standings were as follows: 1. Buffalo, 2. Kansas City, 3. Cincinnati, 4. Jacksonville, 5. Los Angeles, 6. Baltimore, 7 New England. Buffalo owns the tiebreaker over K.C. by virtue of a win against them in week six.

Had the Bengals beaten the Bills, they would've leapfrogged past them into the number two seed in the conference. Why is that important? Because the number two seed gets an additional home game in the playoffs. Had the Bills won, they likely would've clinched the number one seed, assuming they beat the Patriots this Sunday.

But here's the problem. Without this game in the standings, the Chiefs are now the number one seed in the conference by a half game, meaning if the Chiefs and Bills both win on Sunday, Buffalo's path to the Super Bowl would, once more, have to go through Arrow Head Stadium where they are 0 for 2 in the postseason.

But wait, it gets worse. The Ravens, who have already beaten the Bengals once this season, could've captured the AFC North with a win over them on Sunday coupled with a Bengals loss on Monday night. Now, thanks to the suits at Park Avenue, the Ravens will have to go on the road as a Wild Card.

You see how one ill-advised decision can have a domino effect?

Why would the league do such a thing knowing the ramifications? Public image, that's why. Let's be honest here for a moment. For years, the NFL has had a reputation for not giving a shit about its players. And to be honest, they haven't. The way they initially handled the concussion issue was a disgrace. 

I have no doubt that ESPN's reporting about the NFL's wanting to resume Monday night's game in five minutes is accurate. It was only after both teams walked off the field and into their respective locker rooms that the league knew it had fucked up. So they went into damage control mode, which is what they seem to excel at. If you want to know why Roger Goodell constantly gets booed at every Draft, this is why. No other professional sports commissioner is more loathe by both fans and players alike than him.

So rather than just admit they made a mistake, they decided to compound the mistake by making another, worse mistake. Mark my words, the very same people who are now self-righteously beating their chests proclaiming that "it's just a game" or "it doesn't matter" will be the first to scream bloody murder when their team loses in the playoffs because they had to play on the road instead of at home. I know fans; I know how they think, because I'm one of them.

The fact is football isn't "just" a game. It hasn't been for a very long time. It's a multi-billion dollar enterprise that is the number one sport in North America and the number two sport in Europe. You think ESPN pried Joe Buck and Troy Aikman away from Fox because they had a few extra million laying around in petty cash? They did it because it was a smart business decision. In fact, ESPN spends pretty much the entire calendar year talking incessantly about football. Even during the World Series, it got more attention.

Call me silly, but I happen to think it's possible to walk and chew gum at the same time. You can sympathize with what Hamlin and his family are going through while at the same time wanting a consequential game to be completed. It shouldn't be either or. That's a false choice, in my opinion. The correct course of action would be for the league to resume the game Thursday night and then push back both teams' subsequent Sunday games to Monday night. That way every team would play a full compliment of 17 games. More importantly, the playoff seeding would be accurate.

Knowing the NFL and its propensity for fucking up a sunset, that isn't likely to happen.